2018 IAAE International Association for Applied Econometrics Conference

Montreal, Canada

 
June 26, 2018
 
09:00 to 18:00Registration, Foyer, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
11:00 to 12:00IAAE Lecture, Janet Currie: Small Area Variations and Physician Decision Making: The Case of Depression, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
12:00 to 13:30Lunch, La Verrière
 
 
13:30 to 15:30Parallel sessions 1
 
 
15:30 to 15:45Break, Foyer, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
15:45 to 17:15Parallel sessions 2
 
 
17:30 to 18:30Plenary lecture, Serena Ng: Modeling Economic Data with Insights from Machine Learning , Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
18:30 to 21:00Welcome reception, Agora
 
 
 
June 27, 2018
 
08:00 to 18:00Registration, Foyer, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
09:00 to 10:00Plenary lecture, Frank Schorfheide: Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models(Sponsored by the Bank of Canada), Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
10:00 to 10:30Break, Foyer, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
10:30 to 12:30Parallel sessions 3
 
 
12:30 to 14:00Lunch, La Verrière
 
 
14:00 to 16:00Parallel sessions 4
 
 
16:00 to 16:30Break, Foyer, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
16:30 to 17:30Plenary lecture, Alfred Galichon: Taxation in matching markets: theory and econometrics , Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
17:30 to 18:30IAAE members meeting, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
18:45 to 22:00Conference dinner, Agora Hydro-Quebec, Coeur des sciences, 175, avenue du Président-Kennedy
 
 
 
June 28, 2018
 
08:00 to 17:00Registration, Foyer, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
09:00 to 10:00Plenary lecture, Guido Imbens: Fixed Effects Methods and Some Alternatives: Or, Why I dont Like Fixed Effects, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
10:00 to 10:30Break, Foyer, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
10:30 to 12:30Parallel sessions 5
 
 
12:30 to 14:00Lunch, La Verrière
 
 
14:00 to 16:00Parallel sessions 6
 
 
16:00 to 16:30Break, Foyer, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
16:30 to 17:30Plenary lecture, Alan Timmermann: Pockets of predictability, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
18:00 to 21:00Cocktail, Galerie MX, 333 avenue Viger Ouest
 
 
 
June 29, 2018
 
09:00 to 10:00Plenary lecture, Tim Conley: Studying heterogeneous peer effects, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
10:00 to 10:30Break, Foyer, Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
 
 
10:30 to 12:30Parallel sessions 7
 
 

 

Program Notes and Index of Sessions

IAAE Lecture, Janet Currie: Small Area Variations and Physician Decision Making: The Case of Depression
Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
June 26, 2018 11:00 to 12:00
 
IAAE Lecture: Janet Currie

Parallel sessions 1
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
 
News and Sentiments I, R-2155
Macro-Finance I, R-4135
Financial econometrics I, R-3840
Empirical Finance I, R-2670
Forecasting financial markets, R-2630
Macroeconometrics I, R-2205
Regulation, R-R120
Spatial Econometrics I, R-R160
Time Series and Panel Data Applications, R-2120
Measurement error and treatment effects, R-M140
Education I, R-M150
Industrial Organizations I, R-M180
Environment I, R-R150
Online Markets, R-R160

Parallel sessions 2
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
 
Spatial Panel Data, R-3870
Housing and the macroeconomy, R-4135
Forecast combination and evaluation I, R-2205
Energy and commodities, R-2670
Forecasting inflation, R-M510
Empirical Finance II, R-2630
Time Series Models I, R-2155
Distributions and Quantiles, R-R150
Immigration, R-R120
Games, R-M150
Household Finances I, R-2120

Plenary lecture, Serena Ng: Modeling Economic Data with Insights from Machine Learning
Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
June 26, 2018 17:30 to 18:30
 
Plenary lecture by Serena Ng: Modeling Economic Data with Insights from Machine ...

Plenary lecture, Frank Schorfheide: Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models(Sponsored by the Bank of Canada)
Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
June 27, 2018 09:00 to 10:00
 
Plenary lecture by Frank Schorfheide: Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models

Parallel sessions 3
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
 
Inflation dynamics I, R-R160
Volatility Modelling I, R-R150
Unconventional monetary policy, R-M510
Uncertainty in Macroeconomics I, R-2895
Business Cycle Fluctuations I, R-2630
Big data, R-M160
Financial econometrics II, R-2120
Macro-Finance II, R-3870
DSGE models, R-2155
Interest rate dynamics, R-R120
Econometric Theory, R-4135
Clustered Inference, R-2670
Minimum Wage, R-M140
Health Economics I, R-2205
Environment II, R-3840
Household Finances II, R-M150
Structural Models, R-M180

Parallel sessions 4
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
 
Labor Markets I, R-M180
Nonlinearities in macroeconomic dynamics, R-3870
Industrial Organizations II, R-M140
Central bank forecasting, R-R160
Empirical Finance III, R-2120
Factor models I, R-2205
Monetary Policy Rules, R-2155
Heterogeneity in macroeconomics, R-M150
Time Series Models II, R-4135
Macroeconomics and asset prices, R-R150
Volatility modeling II, R-2630
Identification in SVARs I, R-2895
Treatment Effects I, R-R120
Network Models, R-M510
Housing Markets, R-2670
Model Uncertainty, R-M160
Education II, R-3840

Plenary lecture, Alfred Galichon: Taxation in matching markets: theory and econometrics
Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
June 27, 2018 16:30 to 17:30
 
Plenary lecture: Alfred Galichon

Plenary lecture, Guido Imbens: Fixed Effects Methods and Some Alternatives: Or, Why I dont Like Fixed Effects
Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
June 28, 2018 09:00 to 10:00
 
Plenary lecture: Guido Imbens

Parallel sessions 5
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
 
Time variation in macroeconomic dynamics, R-M510
Identification in SVARs II, R-R120
Oil prices, R-2120
Volatility modeling III, R-2630
Macro-Finance III, R-2155
Forecast combination and evaluation II, R-M160
Fiscal policy, R-3870
Survey Forecasts and Expectation Formation I, R-2205
Financial econometrics III, R-R150
Monetary Policy I, R-2240
Regression discontinuity, R-2895
Discrete Choice, R-3840
Treatment Effects II, R-R160
Health Economics II, R-M140
Sample Selection, R-2670
Trade, R-3610
Teachers and Schools, R-M180
Development, R-M150

Parallel sessions 6
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
 
(Structural) VARs, R-2205
Labor markets and the macroeconomy, R-2240
Nowcasting, R-2670
Forecasting business cycles, R-M180
News and Sentiments II, R-2155
Uncertainty in Macroeconomics II, R-2120
Monetary Policy II, R-3870
The effect of fiscal shocks, R-3840
Time Series Models III, R-2895
Empirical Finance IV, R-M510
Spatial Econometrics II, R-2630
Weak Identification , R-R120
Panel Data, R-M140
Applications of Machine Learning, R-M160
Education III, R-M150
Labor Markets II, R-R150
Inequality, R-R160

Plenary lecture, Alan Timmermann: Pockets of predictability
Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
June 28, 2018 16:30 to 17:30
 
Plenary lecture by Alan Timmermann: Pockets of Predictability

Plenary lecture, Tim Conley: Studying heterogeneous peer effects
Salle Marie-Gérin-Lajoie, J-M400
June 29, 2018 09:00 to 10:00
 
Plenary Lecture: Tim Conley

Parallel sessions 7
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
 
Macro-Finance IV, R-2895
Factor Models II, R-R160
Exchange rates, R-2120
Inflation dynamics II, R-2155
Uncertainty in Macroeconomics III, R-2205
Survey Forecasts and Expectation Formation II, R-2240
Volatility modeling IV, R-2630
Time Series Models IV, R-2670
Business Cycle Fluctuations II, R-R150
Prediction with high dimensional data, R-R120
Treatment Effects III, R-3870
Return predictability, R-M140
Health Economics III, R-M150
Dynamics of Prices and Returns, R-M180
Economic and Financial Networks, R-M510

 

Summary of All Sessions

Click here for an index of all participants

#Date/TimeLocationTitlePapersOrganizer
1June 26, 2018
11:00-12:00
N/A IAAE Lecture: Janet Currie0
2June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-2155 News and Sentiments I4Francesco Bianchi
3June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-4135 Macro-Finance I4
4June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-3840 Financial econometrics I3
5June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-2670 Empirical Finance I4
6June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-2630 Forecasting financial markets3
7June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-2205 Macroeconometrics I4
8June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-R120 Regulation4
9June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-R160 Spatial Econometrics I4
10June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-2120 Time Series and Panel Data Applications4
11June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-M140 Measurement error and treatment effects4
12June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-M150 Education I3
13June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-M180 Industrial Organizations I4
14June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-R150 Environment I3
15June 26, 2018
13:30-15:30
R-R160 Online Markets4
16June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-4135 Housing and the macroeconomy3
17June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-3870 Spatial Panel Data3
18June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-2205 Forecast combination and evaluation I3
19June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-2670 Energy and commodities3
20June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-M510 Forecasting inflation3
21June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-2630 Empirical Finance II3
22June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-2155 Time Series Models I3Raffaella Giacomini
23June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-R150 Distributions and Quantiles3
24June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-R120 Immigration3
25June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-M150 Games3
26June 26, 2018
15:45-17:15
R-2120 Household Finances I3
27June 26, 2018
17:30-18:30
N/A Plenary lecture by Serena Ng: Modeling Economic Data with Insights from Machine Learning 0
28June 27, 2018
9:00-10:00
N/A Plenary lecture by Frank Schorfheide: Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models0
29June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-R160 Inflation dynamics I4Todd Clark
30June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-R150 Volatility Modelling I3Raffaella Giacomini
31June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2895 Uncertainty in Macroeconomics I4
32June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M510 Unconventional monetary policy4
33June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2630 Business Cycle Fluctuations I3Francesco Bianchi
34June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M160 Big data4
35June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2120 Financial econometrics II4
36June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-3870 Macro-Finance II4Francesco Bianchi
37June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2155 DSGE models4
38June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-R120 Interest rate dynamics4
39June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-4135 Econometric Theory4
40June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2670 Clustered Inference4
41June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M140 Minimum Wage4
42June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2205 Health Economics I4
43June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-3840 Environment II2
44June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M150 Household Finances II3
45June 27, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M180 Structural Models4
46June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M140 Industrial Organizations II4
47June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M180 Labor Markets I4
48June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-3870 Nonlinearities in macroeconomic dynamics4
49June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-R160 Central bank forecasting4
50June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2120 Empirical Finance III4
51June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2205 Factor models I4
52June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2155 Monetary Policy Rules4
53June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M150 Heterogeneity in macroeconomics4
54June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-4135 Time Series Models II4
55June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-R150 Macroeconomics and asset prices4
56June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2630 Volatility modeling II4
57June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2895 Identification in SVARs I4Todd Clark
58June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-R120 Treatment Effects I4
59June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M510 Network Models4
60June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2670 Housing Markets4
61June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M160 Model Uncertainty4
62June 27, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-3840 Education II3
63June 27, 2018
16:30-17:30
N/A Plenary lecture: Alfred Galichon0
64June 28, 2018
9:00-10:00
N/A Plenary lecture: Guido Imbens0
65June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M510 Time variation in macroeconomic dynamics4Todd Clark
66June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-R120 Identification in SVARs II4
67June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2120 Oil prices4
68June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2630 Volatility modeling III4
69June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2155 Macro-Finance III4
70June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M160 Forecast combination and evaluation II3
71June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-3870 Fiscal policy4
72June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2205 Survey Forecasts and Expectation Formation I4Raffaella Giacomini
73June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-R150 Financial econometrics III4
74June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-3840 Discrete Choice3
75June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2240 Monetary Policy I4Francesco Bianchi
76June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2895 Regression discontinuity3
77June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-R160 Treatment Effects II3
78June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M140 Health Economics II4
79June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2670 Sample Selection4
80June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-3610 Trade4
81June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M180 Teachers and Schools4
82June 28, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M150 Development4
83June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2205 (Structural) VARs4Raffaella Giacomini
84June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2240 Labor markets and the macroeconomy4
85June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2670 Nowcasting4
86June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M180 Forecasting business cycles3
87June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2155 News and Sentiments II4
88June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2120 Uncertainty in Macroeconomics II3
89June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-3870 Monetary Policy II3
90June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-3840 The effect of fiscal shocks3
91June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2895 Time Series Models III4
92June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M510 Empirical Finance IV4
93June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-2630 Spatial Econometrics II3
94June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-R120 Weak Identification 4
95June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M140 Panel Data4
96June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M160 Applications of Machine Learning3
97June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-M150 Education III4
98June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-R150 Labor Markets II4
99June 28, 2018
14:00-16:00
R-R160 Inequality4
100June 28, 2018
16:30-17:30
N/A Plenary lecture by Alan Timmermann: Pockets of Predictability0
101June 29, 2018
9:00-10:00
N/A Plenary Lecture: Tim Conley0
102June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2895 Macro-Finance IV4Todd Clark
103June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2120 Exchange rates4
104June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-R160 Factor Models II3
105June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2155 Inflation dynamics II3
106June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2205 Uncertainty in Macroeconomics III4
107June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2240 Survey Forecasts and Expectation Formation II4
108June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2630 Volatility modeling IV3
109June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-2670 Time Series Models IV4
110June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-R150 Business Cycle Fluctuations II4
111June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-R120 Prediction with high dimensional data3
112June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M140 Return predictability4
113June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-3870 Treatment Effects III3
114June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M150 Health Economics III2
115June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M180 Dynamics of Prices and Returns2
116June 29, 2018
10:30-12:30
R-M510 Economic and Financial Networks3
 

116 sessions, 395 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers


 

2018 IAAE International Association for Applied Econometrics Conference

Detailed List of Sessions

 
Session 1: IAAE Lecture: Janet Currie
June 26, 2018 11:00 to 12:00
 
Session Organizer: ,
 
Session 2: News and Sentiments I
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-2155
 
Session Organizer: Francesco Bianchi, Duke University
Session Chair: Laura Moretti, European Central Bank
 

Measuring News Sentiment
By Adam Shapiro; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
   presented by: Adam Shapiro, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
 

How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States
By Chen Yong; Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Dingming Liu; Xiamen University
   presented by: Chen Yong, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
 

vOILatility: Forecasting Oil Prices under Uncertainty
By Marcelle Chauvet; University of California Riverside
   presented by: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California Riverside
 

News, Noise and Oil Price Swings
By Luca Gambetti; Collegio Carlo Alberto
Laura Moretti; European Central Bank
   presented by: Laura Moretti, European Central Bank
 
Session 3: Macro-Finance I
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-4135
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Michael Siemer, Federal Reserve Board
 

The Natural Rate of Interest and the Financial Cycle
By Georgi Krustev; European Central Bank
   presented by: Georgi Krustev, European Central Bank
 

Measuring Financial Cycle Time
By Andrew Filardo; Bank for International Settlements
Marco Lombardi; Bank for International Settlements
Marek Raczko; Bank of England
   presented by: Marco Lombardi, Bank for International Settlements
 

The Real Effects of Credit Booms and Busts
By Simon Gilchrist; New York University
Michael Siemer; Federal Reserve Board
Egon Zakrajsek; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Michael Siemer, Federal Reserve Board
 

Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity
By Andrea Nobili; Banca d'Italia
   presented by: Antonio Conti, Bank of Italy
 
Session 4: Financial econometrics I
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-3840
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Davide Pettenuzzo, Brandeis Univeristy
 

Modelling time-varying parameters using artificial neural networks : A GARCH illustration
By Arnaud Dufays; Universite Laval
Morvan Nongni Donfack; Universté Laval
   presented by: Morvan Nongni Donfack, Universté Laval
 

High Frequency Tail Risk
By Caio Almeida; Getulio Vargas Foundation
Kym Ardison; Fundação Getulio Vargas
Rene Garcia; Universite de Montreal
   presented by: Caio Almeida, Getulio Vargas Foundation
 

High-frequency Cash Flow Dynamics
By Davide Pettenuzzo; Brandeis Univeristy
Riccardo Sabbatucci; Stockholm School of Economics
Allan Timmermann; UCSD
   presented by: Davide Pettenuzzo, Brandeis Univeristy
 
Session 5: Empirical Finance I
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-2670
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Mamiko Yamashita, Toulouse School of Economics
 

Model Risk of Expected Shortfall
By Emese Lazar; Henley Business School at Reading
NING ZHANG; University of Reading
   presented by: NING ZHANG, University of Reading
 

Robustly modelling the scale and shape dynamics of stock return distributions
By Jim Griffin
Gelly Mitrodima; London School of Economics
Jaideep Oberoi; University of Kent
   presented by: Jaideep Oberoi, University of Kent
 

Return predictability and risk management
By Nour Meddahi; Toulouse School of Economics
Mamiko Yamashita; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: Mamiko Yamashita, Toulouse School of Economics
 

Carry Trades and Endogenous Regime Switches in Exchange Rate Volatility
By Dooyeon Cho; Sungkyunkwan University
Heejoon Han; Sungkyunkwan University
Na Kyeong Lee; Sungkunkwan University
   presented by: Heejoon Han, Sungkyunkwan University
 
Session 6: Forecasting financial markets
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-2630
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Jianjian Jin, Bank of Canada
 

Beset With Cares At Nightfall: A Comprehensive Analysis of Incorporating Overnight Futures Data In Daytime Stock Volatility Forecasting
By Asger Lunde; Aarhus University
Giorgio Mirone; Aarhus University & CREATES
Ye Zeng; CREATES, Aarhus University
   presented by: Giorgio Mirone, Aarhus University & CREATES
 

Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning
By Joscha Beckmann; University of Bochum / Kiel Institute /
Gary Koop; University of Strathclyde
Dimitris Korobilis; University of Essex
Rainer Schüssler; University of Rostock
   presented by: Rainer Schüssler, University of Rostock
 

Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate
By Bruno Feunou; Bank of Canada
Jianjian Jin; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Jianjian Jin, Bank of Canada
 
Session 7: Macroeconometrics I
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-2205
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Andrzej Kociecki, Narodowy Bank Polski
 

Measuring Productivity and Absorptive Capacity Evolution
By Stef De Visscher; Ghent University
Markus Eberhardt; University of Nottingham
Gerdie Everaert; Ghent University
   presented by: Stef De Visscher, Ghent University
 

Global Robust Bayesian Analysis in Large Models
By Paul Ho; Princeton University
   presented by: Paul Ho, Princeton University
 

Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions: Some New Perspective
By Andrzej Kociecki; Narodowy Bank Polski
   presented by: Andrzej Kociecki, Narodowy Bank Polski
 

Measuring the inflation-unemployment trade-off
By Regis Barnichon; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
   presented by: Regis Barnichon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
 
Session 8: Regulation
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-R120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Amine Ouazad, HEC Montreal
 

Systemic Risk from Asset Concentration and Common Holdings among Banks
By Celso Brunetti; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Celso Brunetti, Federal Reserve Board
 

Structural Stress Tests
By Dean Corbae; University of Wisconsin
Pablo D'Erasmo; FRB Philadelphia
Sigurd Mølster Galaasen; Norges Bank
Alfonso Irarrazabal; BI Norwegian Business School
Thomas Siemsen; Deutsche Bundesbank
   presented by: Sigurd Mølster Galaasen, Norges Bank
 

Are Macroprudential Policies Effective Tools to Reduce Credit Growth in Emerging Markets?
By Fatma Pinar Erdem; Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
IBRAHIM UNALMIS; Central Bank of Turkey
   presented by: IBRAHIM UNALMIS, Central Bank of Turkey
 

BALANCE-SHEET DIVERSIFICATION IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM: IDENTIFICATION AND NETWORK EFFECTS
By Jonas Heipertz; Paris School of Economics
Amine Ouazad; HEC Montreal
Romain Ranciere; USC
Natacha Valla; Banque de France / ECB
   presented by: Amine Ouazad, HEC Montreal
 
Session 9: Spatial Econometrics I
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-R160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Andros Kourtellos, University of Cyprus
 

Adaptive Inference on Pure Spatial Models
By Jungyoon Lee; Royal Holloway, University of London
   presented by: Jungyoon Lee, Royal Holloway, University of London
 

Continuously Updated Indirect Inference in Spatial Autoregressions with Unobserved Heterogeneity
By FRANCESCA ROSSI; University of Verona
   presented by: FRANCESCA ROSSI, University of Verona
 

Threshold Spatial Autoregression
By Antri Konstantinidi; University of Cyprus
Andros Kourtellos; University of Cyprus, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Yiguo Sun; UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH
   presented by: Andros Kourtellos, University of Cyprus
 

Network Competition and Team Chemistry in the NBA
By Hyunseok Jung; Syracuse University
William Horrace; Syracuse University
Shane Sanders; Falk College, Syracuse University
   presented by: Hyunseok Jung, Syracuse University
 
Session 10: Time Series and Panel Data Applications
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-2120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Ruixuan Liu, Emory University
 

You can't always get what you want? A Monte Carlo analysis of the bias and the efficiency of dynamic panel data estimators
By Vadim Kufenko; University of Hohenheim
Klaus Prettner; University of Hohenheim
   presented by: Vadim Kufenko, University of Hohenheim
 

The Cost-Sharing, Shadow Price and Cluster in Medical Care Utilization: A Self-Exciting Perspective
By Yuhao LI; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
   presented by: Yuhao LI, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
 

Accelerated Failure Time Models with Logconcave Errors
By Ruixuan Liu; Emory University
Zhengfei Yu; University of Tsukuba
   presented by: Ruixuan Liu, Emory University
 

Instrumental Variable Estimation of Dynamic Linear Panel Data Models with Defactored Regressors and a Multifactor Error Structure
By Milda Norkute
Vasilis Sarafidis; Monash University
Takashi Yamagata; University of York
   presented by: Takashi Yamagata, University of York
 
Session 11: Measurement error and treatment effects
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-M140
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Akanksha Negi, Michigan State University
 

Stochastic Revealed Preferences with Measurement Error: Testing for Exponential Discounting in Survey Data
By Victor Aguiar; University of Western Ontario
Nail Kashaev; University of Western Ontario
   presented by: Nail Kashaev, University of Western Ontario
 

On the Estimation of Treatment Effects with Endogenous Misreporting
By Pierre Nguimkeu; Georgia State University
Augustine Denteh; Georgia State University
Rusty Tchernis; Georgia State University
   presented by: Rusty Tchernis, Georgia State University
 

Women's Empowerment and Family Health: Estimating LATE with Mismeasured Treatment
By Rossella Calvi; Rice University
Arthur Lewbel; Boston College
Denni Tommasi; Université Libre de Bruxelles
   presented by: Rossella Calvi, Rice University
 

Revisiting Regression Adjustment in Experiments with a Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Model
By Akanksha Negi; Michigan State University
   presented by: Akanksha Negi, Michigan State University
 
Session 12: Education I
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-M150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Christian Belzil, Ecole Polytechnique
 

Dealing With Differential Item Functioning In Item Response Models: Inter-temporal Differences.
By James McIntosh; Concordia University
   presented by: James McIntosh, Concordia University
 

How Do Mothers Manage? Universal Daycare, Child Skill Formation, and the Parental Time-Education Puzzle
By Timea Laura Molnar; Analysis Group / Groupe d'Analyse (Montréal)
   presented by: Timea Laura Molnar, Analysis Group / Groupe d'Analyse (Montréal)
 

The Evolution of the U.S. Family Income-Schooling Relationship and Educational Selectivity
By Christian Belzil; Ecole Polytechnique
Jorgen Hansen; concordia university
   presented by: Christian Belzil, Ecole Polytechnique
 
Session 13: Industrial Organizations I
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-M180
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Elliot Anenberg, Federal Reserve Board
 

Spillover effects and city development
By Roxana Fernandez; CREST-ENSAE
   presented by: Roxana Fernandez, CREST-ENSAE
 

A structural model of hospital competition
[slides]
By Philippe Chone; CREST
Lionel Wilner; INSEE-CREST
   presented by: Lionel Wilner, INSEE-CREST
 

Information Technology and Consumption Agglomeration: Evidence from Yelp
By Elliot Anenberg; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Elliot Anenberg, Federal Reserve Board
 

Time variation in the competitiveness of product and labor markets of Chinese firms: An application of the distance test
By Sabien Dobbelaere; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Quint Wiersma; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
   presented by: Quint Wiersma, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
 
Session 14: Environment I
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-R150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Averi Chakrabarti, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
 

Understanding Disparities in Punishment: Regulator Preferences and Expertise
By Karam Kang; Carnegie Mellon University
Bernardo Silveira; Olin Business School
   presented by: Bernardo Silveira, Olin Business School
 

Forests and Infant Mortality in Indonesia
By Averi Chakrabarti; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
   presented by: Averi Chakrabarti, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
 

On Model Selection Criteria for Climate Change Impact Studies
By Dalia Ghanem; University of California, Davis
   presented by: Dalia Ghanem, University of California, Davis
 
Session 15: Online Markets
June 26, 2018 13:30 to 15:30
R-R160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Maude Hasbi, Chalmers University of Technology
 

The Effect of ID Verification in Online Markets: Evidence from a Field Experiment
By Patrick Scholten; Bentley University
   presented by: Patrick Scholten, Bentley University
 

Ethnic Discrimination on an Online Marketplace of Vacation Rentals
By Morgane Laouenan; CNRS Paris-Sorbonne
   presented by: Morgane Laouenan, CNRS Paris-Sorbonne
 

More is Better, or Not? An Empirical Analysis of Buyer Preferences for Variety on the E-Market
By Senay Sokullu; University of Bristol
   presented by: Senay Sokullu, University of Bristol
 

Impact of Very High-Speed Broadband on Local Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence
By Maude Hasbi; Chalmers University of Technology
   presented by: Maude Hasbi, Chalmers University of Technology
 
Session 16: Housing and the macroeconomy
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-4135
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Bruno Albuquerque, Ghent University
 

Property Heterogeneity and Convergence Club Formation among Local House Prices
By Mark Holmes; University of Waikato
Jesus Otero; Universidad del Rosario
Theodore Panagiotidis; University of Macedonia
   presented by: Jesus Otero, Universidad del Rosario
 

Land Use Regulations, Migration and Rising House Price Dispersion in the U.S.
By WUKUANG CUN; University of Southern California
M. Hashem Pesaran; University of Southern California, and Trinity College, Cambridge
   presented by: WUKUANG CUN, University of Southern California
 

Time-varying housing supply elasticities and US housing cycles
By Bruno Albuquerque; Ghent University
Knut Are Aastveit; Norges Bank
Andre Anundsen; Norges Bank
   presented by: Bruno Albuquerque, Ghent University
 
Session 17: Spatial Panel Data
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-3870
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Arturas Juodis, University of Groningen
 

Nonparametric panel data models with cross-sectional dependence
By Peter Robinson
Juan Rodriguez-Poo; Universidad de Cantabria
Alexandra Soberon; Universidad de Cantabria
   presented by: Alexandra Soberon, Universidad de Cantabria
 

Common Correlated Effect Cross-sectional Dependence Corrections for Non-linear Conditional Mean Panel Models
By Sinem Hacioglu Hoke; Bank of England
   presented by: Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, Bank of England
 

Incidental Parameters Problem in Testing: A Case of Cross-section Dependence Tests with Common Components
By Arturas Juodis; University of Groningen
Simon Reese; University of Southern California
   presented by: Arturas Juodis, University of Groningen
 
Session 18: Forecast combination and evaluation I
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-2205
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: George Athanasopoulos, Monash University
 

Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting
By Knut Are Aastveit; Norges Bank
Kenichiro McAlinn; University of Chicago
Jouchi Nakajima; Bank of International Settlements
Mike West; Duke University
   presented by: Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank
 

Unrestricted and Controlled Identification of Loss Functions: Possibility and Impossibility Results
By Robert Lieli; Central European University
Max Stinchcombe; University of Texas, Austin
   presented by: Robert Lieli, Central European University
 

Optimal forecast reconciliation for hierarchical and grouped time series through trace minimization
By Shanika Wickramasuriya; Monash University
George Athanasopoulos; Monash University
Rob Hyndman; Monash University
   presented by: George Athanasopoulos, Monash University
 
Session 19: Forecasting inflation
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-M510
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Marco Del Negro, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
 

FORECASTING INFLATION IN A DATA-RICH ENVIRONMENT: THE BENEFITS OF MACHINE LEARNING METHODS
By Marcelo Medeiros; PUC-Rio
Gabriel Vasconcelos; PUC-Rio
Alvaro Veiga; PUC - Rio
Eduardo Zilberman; Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Ri
   presented by: Gabriel Vasconcelos, PUC-Rio
 

Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach
By Luca Brugnolini; University of Rome Tor Vergata and Central Bank of Malta
   presented by: Luca Brugnolini, University of Rome Tor Vergata and Central Bank of Malta
 

The Conquest of Inflation Credibility in the U.S.-- A Bayesian Approach for Inference on Probabilistic Surveys
By Marco Del Negro; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Roberto Casarin; University Ca' Foscari of Venice
Francesco Ravazzolo; Free University of Bozen/Bolzano
   presented by: Marco Del Negro, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
 
Session 20: Energy and commodities
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-2670
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Stephen Snudden, Queen's University
 

Asymmetric Responses of Consumer Spending to Energy Prices: The Role of Information and News Coverage
By Edward Knotek II; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Saeed Zaman; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
   presented by: Edward Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
 

A fistful of oil barrels for a few more dollars: strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market
By virginia di nino; ECB
   presented by: virginia di nino, ECB
 

International Remittances, Migration, and Primary Commodities
By Stephen Snudden; Queen's University
   presented by: Stephen Snudden, Queen's University
 
Session 21: Time Series Models I
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-2155
 
Session Organizer: Raffaella Giacomini, University College London
Session Chair: Daniel Buncic, Sveriges Riksbank
 

Detecting Time Irreversibility Using Quantile Autoregressive Models
[slides]
By Alain Hecq; Maastricht University
Li Sun; Maastricht University, School of Business and Economics
   presented by: Alain Hecq, Maastricht University
 

Vector Quantile Autoregression: A Random Coefficient Approach
By Sulkhan Chavleishvili; European Central Bank
   presented by: Sulkhan Chavleishvili, European Central Bank
 

Identification and Estimation issues in Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models
By Daniel Buncic; Sveriges Riksbank
   presented by: Daniel Buncic, Sveriges Riksbank
 
Session 22: Empirical Finance II
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-2630
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Bank of Canada
 

The Informational Value of Consensus Prices: Evidence from the OTC Derivatives Market
By Murat Ergun; Bank of Canada
Andreas Uthemann; London School of Economics
   presented by: Andreas Uthemann, London School of Economics
 

Short Selling and Excess Return Correlation
By Marco Valerio Geraci; University of Cambridge
Jean-Yves Gnabo; University of Namur
David Veredas; Vlerick Business School
   presented by: Marco Valerio Geraci, University of Cambridge
 

Composite Likelihood Estimation of AR-Probit Model: Application to Credit Ratings
By Kerem Tuzcuoglu; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Bank of Canada
 
Session 23: Distributions and Quantiles
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-R150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Yuya Sasaki, Vanderbilt University
 

Distributional Counterfactual Analysis with (common) Deterministic trend units
By Ricardo Masini; Escola de Economia de São Paulo - FGV
   presented by: Ricardo Masini, Escola de Economia de São Paulo - FGV
 

Distributional Regression in Survival Analysis
By Miguel Delgado; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Andrés García-Suaza; Universidad del Rosario
Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna; Vanderbilt University
   presented by: Andrés García-Suaza, Universidad del Rosario
 

Quantile Regression with Interval Data
By Arie Beresteanu; University of Pittsburgh
Yuya Sasaki; Vanderbilt University
   presented by: Yuya Sasaki, Vanderbilt University
 
Session 24: Immigration
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-R120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Christoph Wigger, University of Cologne
 

Immigration and housing for the near-retirees
By Wendy Kei; University of British Columbia
   presented by: Wendy Kei, University of British Columbia
 

Deprivation, enclaves, and socioeconomic classes of UK immigrants. Does English proficiency matter?
By Yu Aoki; University of Aberdeen and IZA
Lualhati Santiago; Office for National Statistics
   presented by: Yu Aoki, University of Aberdeen and IZA
 

Who with Whom? Untangling the Effect of High-Skilled Immigration on Innovation
By Christoph Wigger; University of Cologne
   presented by: Christoph Wigger, University of Cologne
 
Session 25: Games
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-M150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Mengkai Yu, Georgetown University
 

Inference in Games without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants Competition in Opening Hours
By Erhao Xie; University of Toronto
   presented by: Erhao Xie, University of Toronto
 

Games with unobservable heterogeneity and multiple equilibria: An application to mobile telecommunications
By Mathieu Marcoux; Université de Montréal
   presented by: Mathieu Marcoux, Université de Montréal
 

Optimal Dynamic Hotel Pricing
By Sungjin Cho; Seoul National University
Gong Lee; Georgetown University
John Rust; Georgetown University
Mengkai Yu; Georgetown University
   presented by: Mengkai Yu, Georgetown University
 
Session 26: Household Finances I
June 26, 2018 15:45 to 17:15
R-2120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: May Rostom, University College London & Bank of England
 

Raising pension awareness through letters and social media: What works for whom? Evidence from a randomized and quasi-experiment
By Marike Knoef; Leiden University, Netspar
Jim Been; Leiden University & Netspar
Marijke Van Putten; Leiden University and Netspar
   presented by: Marike Knoef, Leiden University, Netspar
 

Unconventional monetary policy and households’ financial portfolio choices
By Caterina Forti Grazzini; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Caterina Forti Grazzini, DIW Berlin
 

Consumption Response to Aggregate Shocks and the Role of Leverage
By Agnes Kovacs; University of Oxford
May Rostom; University College London & Bank of Engl
Philip Bunn; Bank of England
   presented by: May Rostom, University College London & Bank of England
 
Session 27: Plenary lecture by Serena Ng: Modeling Economic Data with Insights from Machine Learning
June 26, 2018 17:30 to 18:30
 
Session Organizer: ,
 
Session 28: Plenary lecture by Frank Schorfheide: Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models
June 27, 2018 9:00 to 10:00
 
Session Organizer: ,
 
Session 29: Inflation dynamics I
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-R160
 
Session Organizer: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Session Chair: Filippo Pellegrino, London School of Economics; Now-Casting Economics
 

Inflation dynamics during the Financial Crisis in Europe: cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations
By Geraldine Dany-Knedlik; DIW Berlin
Oliver Holtemöller; Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg and Halle Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
   presented by: Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, DIW Berlin
 

The Role of Expectations in Changed Inflation Dynamics
By Damjan Pfajfar; Federal Reserve Board
John Roberts; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
   presented by: John Roberts, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
 

Phillips curves in the euro area?
By Laura Moretti; Central Bank of Ireland
Luca Onorante; European Central Bank
Shayan Zakipour-Saber; Queen Mary University of London
   presented by: Luca Onorante, European Central Bank
 

A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation
By Thomas Hasenzagl; Now-Casting Economics
Filippo Pellegrino; London School of Economics; Now-Casting Economics
Lucrezia Reichlin; London Business School
Giovanni Ricco; University of Warwick
   presented by: Filippo Pellegrino, London School of Economics; Now-Casting Economics
 
Session 30: Volatility Modelling I
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-R150
 
Session Organizer: Raffaella Giacomini, University College London
Session Chair: Jean-Marie Dufour, McGill University
 

Forecasting realized volatility: the role of implied volatility, leverage effects and the volatility of realized volatility
By Dimos Kambouroudis; University of Stirling
David McMillan; University of Stirling
Katerina Tsakou; Swansea University
   presented by: Katerina Tsakou, Swansea University
 

A Stochastic Price Duration Model for Estimating High-Frequency Volatility
By Denis Pelletier; North Carolina State University
Wei Wei
   presented by: Wei Wei,
 

Simple Estimators and Inference for Higher-order Stochastic Volatility Models
By Md. Nazmul Ahsan; McGill University
Jean-Marie Dufour; McGill University
   presented by: Jean-Marie Dufour, McGill University
 
Session 31: Unconventional monetary policy
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M510
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Filippo Ferroni, Chicago FED
 

The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates
By Atsushi Inoue; Vanderbilt University
Barbara Rossi; ICREA-Univ. Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE
   presented by: Barbara Rossi, ICREA-Univ. Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE
 

Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases
By Xu Zhang; University of California, San Diego
   presented by: Xu Zhang, University of California, San Diego
 

IDENTIFYING UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS
By Masahiko Shibamoto; Kobe University
Kiyotaka Nakashima; Konan University
Koji Takahashi; Bank of Japan
   presented by: Masahiko Shibamoto, Kobe University
 

Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro-area
[slides]
By Filippo Ferroni; Chicago FED
   presented by: Filippo Ferroni, Chicago FED
 
Session 32: Uncertainty in Macroeconomics I
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2895
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Christos Ioannidis, Aston University
 

Uncertainty Across Volatility Regimes
By Giovanni Angelini; University of Bologna
Emanuele Bacchiocchi; University of Milan
Giovanni Caggiano; Monash University
Luca Fanelli; University of Bologna
   presented by: Luca Fanelli, University of Bologna
 

Expectations Shocks with Uncertain Data
By Michael Clements; University of Reading
Ana Beatriz Galvao; University of Warwick
   presented by: Ana Beatriz Galvao, University of Warwick
 

Uncertainty and Financial Stability: a VAR Analysis
By Chiara Scotti; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Chiara Scotti, Federal Reserve Board
 

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premia
By Christos Ioannidis; Aston University
Kook Ka; Bank of Korea
   presented by: Kook Ka, Bank of Korea
 
Session 33: Business Cycle Fluctuations I
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2630
 
Session Organizer: Francesco Bianchi, Duke University
Session Chair: Yunjong Eo, University of Sydney
 

Are linear models really unuseful to describe business cycle data?
By Artur Silva Lopes; ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa
Gabriel Zsurkis; ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa
   presented by: Artur Silva Lopes, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa
 

Global Macroeconomic Volatility
By Danilo Leiva-Leon; Banco de España
   presented by: Danilo Leiva-Leon, Banco de España
 

Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?
By Yunjong Eo; University of Sydney
James Morley; University of Sydney
   presented by: Yunjong Eo, University of Sydney
 
Session 34: Big data
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University
 

Macroeconomic forecast accuracy in a data-rich environment
By Dalibor Stevanovic; Université du Québec à Montréal
Maxime Leroux
Rachidi Kotchoni; CNRS-EconomiX, Université Paris Nanterr
   presented by: Maxime Leroux,
 

On LASSO for Predictive Regression
By Ji Hyung Lee; University of Illinois
Zhentao Shi; The Chinese University of Hong Kong
   presented by: Ji Hyung Lee, University of Illinois
 

A horse race in high dimensional space
By paolo andreini; Tor vergata Univeristy
   presented by: paolo andreini, Tor vergata University
 

Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity
By Giorgio Primiceri; Northwestern University
   presented by: Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University
 
Session 35: Financial econometrics II
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Jérémy Leymarie, University of Orléans
 

Understanding the Economic Determinants of the Severity of Operational Losses: A regularized Generalized Pareto Regression Approach
By Julien Hambuckers; University of Goettingen
Andreas Groll; Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Thomas Kneib; University of Goettingen
   presented by: Julien Hambuckers, University of Goettingen
 

Time-varying Learning Combinations of Bayesian Dynamic Models and Equity Momentum Strategies
By Herman van Dijk; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Herman van Dijk, Erasmus University Rotterdam
 

Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions
By Antonio Diez de los Rios; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Antonio Diez de los Rios, Bank of Canada
 

Backtesting Marginal Expected Shortfall and Related Systemic Risk Measures
By Georgiana Denisa Banulescu-Radu; University of Orléans
Christophe Hurlin; Université d’Orléans
Jérémy Leymarie; University of Orléans
Olivier Scaillet; University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute
   presented by: Jérémy Leymarie, University of Orléans
 
Session 36: Macro-Finance II
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-3870
 
Session Organizer: Francesco Bianchi, Duke University
Session Chair: Jelena Zivanovic, Bank of Canada
 

Do loan demand shocks matter? A new look at credit supply and demand channels of the UK Economy.
By Richard Kima; University of Southampton
   presented by: Richard Kima, University of Southampton
 

Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?
By Thorsten Beck; Cass Business School and CEPR
Steven Poelhekke; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
   presented by: Steven Poelhekke, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
 

Financial Shocks, Credit Spreads, and the International Credit Channel
[slides]
By Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi; Bank of England
Andrej Sokol; Bank of England
   presented by: Andrej Sokol, Bank of England
 

A structural empirical analysis of the external finance premium
By Jelena Zivanovic; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Jelena Zivanovic, Bank of Canada
 
Session 37: DSGE models
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2155
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Marc Giannoni, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
 

Macroeconomic implications of shadow banks: A DSGE analysis
By Bora Durdu; Federal Reserve Board
Molin Zhong; Federal Reserve Board of Governors
   presented by: Molin Zhong, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
 

Misspecification in DSGE Models and Policy Implications: Empirical Evidence from the Euro Area
By Roberta Cardani; JRC European Commission
Alessia Paccagnini; University College Dublin
   presented by: Alessia Paccagnini, University College Dublin
 

DSGE models with financial frictions: frequency does matter
[slides]
By Claudia Foroni; Deutsche Bundesbank
Paolo Gelain; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Massimiliano Marcellino; Bocconi University
   presented by: Paolo Gelain, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
 

DSGE Forecasts of the Lost Recovery
By Michael Cai; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Marco Del Negro; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Marc Giannoni; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Abhi Gupta; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Pearl Li
Erica Moszkowski; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
   presented by: Marc Giannoni, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
 
Session 38: Interest rate dynamics
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-R120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Fan Dora Xia, Bank for International Settlements
 

A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint
By Rafael De Rezende; Sveriges Riksbank
Annukka Ristiniemi; Sveriges Riksbank
   presented by: Rafael De Rezende, Sveriges Riksbank
 

Interest Rate Conundrums in the Twenty-First Century
By Samuel Hanson; Harvard Business School
David Lucca; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Jonathan Wright; Johns Hopkins University
   presented by: Jonathan Wright, Johns Hopkins University
 

Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of U.S. Safe Real Rates
By Kurt Lunsford; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Kenneth West; University of Wisconsin
   presented by: Kurt Lunsford, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
 

Negative Interest Rate Policy and Yield Curve
By Jing Cynthia Wu; University of Chicago
Fan Dora Xia; Bank for International Settlements
   presented by: Fan Dora Xia, Bank for International Settlements
 
Session 39: Econometric Theory
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-4135
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Timothy Armstrong, Yale University
 

Inference for moments of ratios with robustness against large trimming bias and unknown convergence rate
By Yuya Sasaki; Vanderbilt University
Takuya Ura; University of California, Davis
   presented by: Takuya Ura, University of California, Davis
 

Inference in Non-Parametric/Semi-Parametric Moment Equality Models with Shape Restrictions
By Yu Zhu; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Yu Zhu, Bank of Canada
 

Testing Generalized Regression Monotonicity
By Yu-Chin Hsu; Academia Sinica
Chu-An Liu; Academia Sinica
Xiaoxia Shi; University of Wisconsin at Madison
   presented by: Xiaoxia Shi, University of Wisconsin at Madison
 

Finite-Sample Optimal Estimation and Inference on Average Treatment Effects Under Unconfoundedness
By Timothy Armstrong; Yale University
Michal Kolesar; Princeton University
   presented by: Timothy Armstrong, Yale University
 
Session 40: Clustered Inference
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2670
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Seojeong Lee, University of New South Wales
 

Validity of Wild Bootstrap Inference with Clustered Errors
By Antoine Djogbenou; Queen's University
James MacKinnon; Queen's University
Morten Nielsen; Queen's University
   presented by: James MacKinnon, Queen's University
 

Asymptotic Results under Multiway Clustering
By Xavier D'Haultfoeuille; CREST
Laurent Davezies; Centre de Recherche en Économie et Stat
Yannick Guyonvarch; CREST-ENSAE
   presented by: Yannick Guyonvarch, CREST-ENSAE
 

Bootstrap and Asymptotic Inference with Multiway Clustering
By James MacKinnon; Queen's University
Morten Nielsen; Queen's University
Matthew Webb; Carleton University
   presented by: Matthew Webb, Carleton University
 

Inference for Iterated GMM Under Misspecification and Clustering
By Bruce Hansen; University of Wisconsin
Seojeong Lee; University of New South Wales
   presented by: Seojeong Lee, University of New South Wales
 
Session 41: Minimum Wage
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M140
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, Vanderbilt University
 

On the effects of the minimum wage on employment, formality, and the wage distribution
By Hugo Jales; Syracuse University
   presented by: Hugo Jales, Syracuse University
 

Employment Effects of Introducing a Minimum Wage: The Case of Germany
By Felix Pohle; Halle Institute for Economic Research
Oliver Holtemöller; Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg and Halle Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
   presented by: Oliver Holtemöller, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg and Halle Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
 

Minimum wages and youth employment in Belgium
By Maritza López Novella; Federal Planning Bureau
   presented by: Maritza López Novella, Federal Planning Bureau
 

Difference in Differences with Multiple Time Periods with an Application on the Minimum Wage and Employment
By Brantly Callaway; Temple University
Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna; Vanderbilt University
   presented by: Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, Vanderbilt University
 
Session 42: Health Economics I
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2205
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Vincenzo Atella, University of Rome Tor Vergata
 

Market structure, patient choice and hospital quality for elective patients
By Giuseppe Moscelli; University of Surrey
Hugh Gravelle; University of York
Luigi Siciliani; University of York
   presented by: Giuseppe Moscelli, University of Surrey
 

Harnessing the Small Victories: Empirical Evidence from a Calorie and Weight Loss Tracking Application
By Nathan Yang; McGill Desautels Faculty of Management
Kosuke Uetake; Yale University School of Management
   presented by: Nathan Yang, McGill Desautels Faculty of Management
 

Technological Advance in Cholesterol Medication Meets Physician Learning: A Non-Parametric Bounding Approach
By Vincenzo Atella; University of Rome Tor Vergata
Federico Belotti; University of Rome Tor Vergata
Jay Bhattacharya; Stanford University
Domenico Depalo; Banca d'Italia
   presented by: Vincenzo Atella, University of Rome Tor Vergata
 

The impact of access to health facilities on maternal care use and health status: Evidence from longitudinal data from rural Uganda
By Fredrick Manang; University of Dodoma (UDOM)
   presented by: Fredrick Manang, University of Dodoma (UDOM)
 
Session 43: Environment II
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-3840
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Reinhard Weisser, Queen Mary University of London
 

Dealing with corner solutions in multi-crop micro-econometric models: an endogenous regime approach with regime fixed costs
By Alain Carpentier; UMR SMART-LERECO INRA Agrocampus Ouest
   presented by: Alain Carpentier, UMR SMART-LERECO INRA Agrocampus Ouest
 

The impact of local shocks on well-being: Only a matter of perception?
By Reinhard Weisser; Queen Mary University of London
   presented by: Reinhard Weisser, Queen Mary University of London
 
Session 44: Household Finances II
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Davud Rostam-Afschar, Universitaet Hohenheim
 

The Impact of School-Based Financial Education on High School Students and their Teachers: Experimental Evidence from Peru
By Veronica Frisancho; Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
   presented by: Veronica Frisancho, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
 

Student Loan Debt and Financial Health of U.S. Households
By Gerald Daniels; Howard University
Venoo Kakar; San Francisco State University
   presented by: Venoo Kakar, San Francisco State University
 

How Do Entrepreneurial Portfolios Respond to Income Taxation?
By Frank Fossen; University of Nevada, Reno
Ray Rees; University of Munich
Davud Rostam-Afschar; Universitaet Hohenheim
Viktor Steiner; Free University of Berlin
   presented by: Davud Rostam-Afschar, Universitaet Hohenheim
 
Session 45: Structural Models
June 27, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M180
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Thierry Magnac, Toulouse School of Economics
 

Identification and Estimation of Nonparametric Hedonic Equilibrium Model with Unobserved Quality
By Ruoyao Shi; UC Riverside
   presented by: Ruoyao Shi, UC Riverside
 

A Pigouvian Approach to Congestion in Matching Markets
[slides]
By Yinghua He; Rice University
Thierry Magnac; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: Thierry Magnac, Toulouse School of Economics
 

Students' dynamic learning: a structural empirical model
By Xintong Han; Concordia University
   presented by: Xintong Han, Concordia University
 

A Search Model of Early Employment Careers and Youth Crime.
By Antonella Mancino; University of Western Ontario
   presented by: Antonella Mancino, University of Western Ontario
 
Session 46: Industrial Organizations II
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M140
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Wilko Letterie, Maastricht University
 

An Experimental Approach to Merger Analysis
By Christopher Conlon; NYU Stern
Julie Mortimer; Boston College
   presented by: Christopher Conlon, NYU Stern
 

Effort and Selection Effects of Performance Pay in Knowledge Creation
By Erina Ytsma; MIT
   presented by: Erina Ytsma, MIT
 

Mergers and Acquisitions, and the Propagations in Production Networks
By Lan Lan; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: Lan Lan, Toulouse School of Economics
 

Price Changes - Stickiness and Internal Coordination in Multiproduct Firms
By Wilko Letterie; Maastricht University
Oivind Nilsen; Norwegian School of Economics
   presented by: Wilko Letterie, Maastricht University
 
Session 47: Labor Markets I
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M180
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Cristina Barcelo, Banco de España
 

Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous-Time Job Search Models
By Peter Arcidiacono; Duke University
Attila Gyetvai; Duke University
Ekaterina Jardim; University of Washington
Arnaud Maurel; Duke University
   presented by: Attila Gyetvai, Duke University
 

Identifying Distributions in a Panel Model with Heteroskedasticity: An Application to Earnings Volatility
By Irene Botosaru; Simon Fraser University
   presented by: Irene Botosaru, University of Bristol
 

The Risk of Job Loss, Household Formation and Housing Demand: Evidence from Differences in Severance Payments
By Cristina Barcelo; Banco de España
Ernesto Villanueva; Banco de España
   presented by: Cristina Barcelo, Banco de España
 

Employment Protection Legislation Impacts on Capital and Skill Composition
By Gilbert CETTE; Banque de France
Jimmy Lopez; Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté (LEDi); Banque de France
Jacques Mairesse; ENSAE
   presented by: Gilbert CETTE, Banque de France
 
Session 48: Nonlinearities in macroeconomic dynamics
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-3870
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Laura Jackson Young, Bentley University
 

Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?
By James Morley; University of Sydney
Irina Panovska; Lehigh University
   presented by: Irina Panovska, Lehigh University
 

Assessing Aggregate Investment Nonlinearities
By Christopher Gust; Federal Reserve Board
Edward Herbst; Federal Reserve Board
David Lopez-Salido; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Edward Herbst, Federal Reserve Board
 

On Nonlinearities in Unemployment
By Francois Langot; GAINS
   presented by: Francois Langot, GAINS
 

Nonlinearities, Smoothing, and Countercyclical Monetary Policy
By Laura Jackson Young; Bentley University
Michael Owyang; Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Daniel Soques; University of North Carolina at Wilmington
   presented by: Laura Jackson Young, Bentley University
 
Session 49: Central bank forecasting
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-R160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Dean Croushore, University of Richmond
 

Changes in Predictability of the Canadian Economy: Evidence from the Bank of Canada Staff's Forecasts
By Julien Champagne; Bank of Canada
Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle; HEC Montreal
Rodrigo Sekkel; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Rodrigo Sekkel, Bank of Canada
 

Asymmetry, Complementarities, and Federal Reserve Forecasts
By julieta caunedo; Cornell University
Riccardo DiCecio; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Ivana Komunjer; Georgetown University
Michael Owyang; Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
   presented by: Michael Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
 

Detecting Time-dependent Bias in the Fed’s Greenbook Forecasts of Foreign GDP Growth
By Neil Ericsson; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Neil Ericsson, Federal Reserve Board
 

Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC
By Dean Croushore; University of Richmond
Simon van Norden; HEC Montréal
   presented by: Dean Croushore, University of Richmond
 
Session 50: Empirical Finance III
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Lynda Khalaf, Carleton University
 

Integration and Disintegration of EMU Government Bond Markets
By Christian Leschinski; Leibniz Universität Hannover
Michelle Voges; Leibniz University Hannover
Philipp Sibbertsen; Leibniz Universitaet Hannover
   presented by: Philipp Sibbertsen, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover
 

Some financial implications of global warming
By Claudio Morana; University Milano Bicocca
   presented by: Claudio Morana, University Milano Bicocca
 

Stock Market Access and Cash Flow Allocation during the Financial Crisis
By David Florysiak; University of Southern Denmark
Vidhan Goyal; The Hong Kong University of Science and
   presented by: David Florysiak, University of Southern Denmark
 

Weak beta, strong beta: multi-factor pricing and rank restrictions
By Lynda Khalaf; Carleton University
   presented by: Lynda Khalaf, Carleton University
 
Session 51: Factor models I
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2205
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Matteo Luciani, Federal Reserve Board, Washington DC
 

Forecasting Large Realized Covariance Matrices: The Benefits of Factor Models and Shrinkage
By Diego Brito; PUC-Rio
Marcelo Medeiros; Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Ruy Ribeiro; PUC-Rio
   presented by: Diego Brito, PUC-Rio
 

Comovements in the Real Activity of Developed and Emerging Economies: A Test of Global versus Specific International Factors
By Antoine Djogbenou; Queen's University
   presented by: Antoine Djogbenou, Queen's University
 

Quantifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: A Mixed-Frequency Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Regression Approach
By Zhi Zhao; University of California Riverside
Marcelle Chauvet; University of California Riverside
   presented by: Zhi Zhao, University of California Riverside
 

Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets
By Matteo Barigozzi; LSE
Matteo Luciani; Federal Reserve Board, Washington DC
   presented by: Matteo Luciani, Federal Reserve Board, Washington DC
 
Session 52: Monetary Policy Rules
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2155
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Andreas Tryphonides, Humboldt U
 

Asymmetries in the Interest Rate Rule: Data versus DSGE
By Anna Almosova; Humboldt University of Berlin
   presented by: Anna Almosova, Humboldt University of Berlin
 

Interest Rate Rules Across The Business Cycle
By Daniel Soques; University of North Carolina at Wilmington
   presented by: Daniel Soques, University of North Carolina at Wilmington
 

FOMC Fed Funds Rate Responses Treat Persistent Fluctuations Differently from Other Fluctuations
By Randal Verbrugge; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Richard Ashley; Virginia Tech
Kwok Ping Tsang; Virginia Tech
   presented by: Randal Verbrugge, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
 

Learning from Errors: The case of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regimes
By Andreas Tryphonides; Humboldt U
   presented by: Andreas Tryphonides, Humboldt U
 
Session 53: Heterogeneity in macroeconomics
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Michele Lenza, European Central Bank
 

On the U.S. Firm and Establishment Size Distributions
By Illenin Kondo; Notre Dame
Logan Lewis; Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Andrea Stella; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Andrea Stella, Federal Reserve Board
 

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the U.S.: New Evidence from Worker-Firm Linked Data
By Andre Kurmann; Drexel University
Erika McEntarfer; US Census Bureau
   presented by: Andre Kurmann, Drexel University
 

What is the extent of misallocation?
By Bruno Pellegrino; UCLA
Geoffery Zheng; UCLA Anderson School of Management
   presented by: Bruno Pellegrino, UCLA
 

How Does Monetary Policy A􏰀ffect Income and Wealth Inequality? Evidence from the Euro Area
By Michele Lenza; European Central Bank
   presented by: Michele Lenza, European Central Bank
 
Session 54: Time Series Models II
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-4135
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Damba Lkhagvasuren, Concordia University, Montreal, Canada
 

A uni…ed theory for the family of time varying models with ARMA representations: One solution …ts all
By Alessandra Canepa; Brunel University
Menelaos Karanasos; Brunel University
alexandros paraskevopoulos; University of Pireaus
   presented by: Menelaos Karanasos, Brunel University
 

Nonfractional Memory: Filtering, Antipersistence, and Forecasting
By J. Eduardo Vera Valdés; Aalborg University
   presented by: J. Eduardo Vera Valdés, Aalborg University
 

A Sieve-SMM Estimator for Dynamic Models
By Jean-Jacques Forneron; Columbia University
   presented by: Jean-Jacques Forneron, Columbia University
 

Highly Persistent Finite-State Markov Chains with Non-Zero Skewness and Excess Kurtosis
By Damba Lkhagvasuren; Concordia University, Montreal, Canada
   presented by: Damba Lkhagvasuren, Concordia University, Montreal, Canada
 
Session 55: Macroeconomics and asset prices
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-R150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Marek Raczko, Bank of England
 

Asset Pricing with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility: A Bayesian DSGE Analysis
By David Rapach; Saint Louis University
Fei Tan; Saint Louis University
   presented by: David Rapach, Saint Louis University
 

Federal Reserve Private Information and the Stock Market
By Aeimit Lakdawala; Michigan State University
Matthew Schaffer; Michigan State University
   presented by: Aeimit Lakdawala, Michigan State University
 

(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia
By Martin Kliem; Deutsche Bundesbank
Alexander Meyer-Gohde; Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
   presented by: Alexander Meyer-Gohde, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
 

The Information in the Term Structures of Bond Yields
By Andrew Meldrum; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv
Marek Raczko; Bank of England
PETER SPENCER; UNIVERSITY OF YORK
   presented by: Marek Raczko, Bank of England
 
Session 56: Volatility modeling II
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2630
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Giuseppe Buccheri, Scuola Normale Superiore
 

Mixing Mixed Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasting Models with High Frequency Volatility and Risk Factors: An Empirical Assessment
By Chun Yao; Rutgers University
   presented by: Chun Yao, Rutgers University
 

Choosing Between Different Time-Varying Volatility Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis
[slides]
By Helmut Luetkepohl; DIW Berlin and FU Berlin
Thore Schlaak; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Thore Schlaak, DIW Berlin
 

Conditional heteroscedasticity models with time-varying parameters: Estimation and forecasting
By armin pourkhanali; Monash University
Jonathan Keith; School of Mathematical Sciences
Xibin Zhang; Monash University
   presented by: armin pourkhanali, Monash University
 

A General Class of Score-Driven Smoothers
By Giuseppe Buccheri; Scuola Normale Superiore
Giacomo Bormetti; University of Bologna
Fulvio Corsi; Ca' Foscari University of Venice and Cit
Fabrizio Lillo; University of Bologna
   presented by: Giuseppe Buccheri, Scuola Normale Superiore
 
Session 57: Identification in SVARs I
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2895
 
Session Organizer: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Session Chair: Robin Braun, University of Konstanz
 

Identifying Shocks via Time-Varying Volatility
By Daniel Lewis; Harvard University
   presented by: Daniel Lewis, Harvard University
 

Identifying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Models by a Change in Shock Variances
By Yohei Yamamoto; Hitotsubashi University
   presented by: Yohei Yamamoto, Hitotsubashi University
 

Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions Through Higher Unconditional Moments
By Michel Normandin; HEC Montreal
   presented by: Michel Normandin, HEC Montreal
 

Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility
By Dominik Bertsche; University of Konstanz
Robin Braun; University of Konstanz
   presented by: Robin Braun, University of Konstanz
 
Session 58: Treatment Effects I
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-R120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Christopher Adams, Federal Trade Commission
 

Multivalued Treatments and Decomposition Analysis: An application to the WIA Program
By Sebastian Calonico; University of Miami
   presented by: Sebastian Calonico, University of Miami
 

Identifying Treatment Effects in the Presence of Confounded Types
By Desire Kedagni; Penn State University
   presented by: Desire Kedagni, Penn State University
 

Sharp Bounds on Functionals of the Joint Distribution in the Analysis of Treatment Effects
By Thomas Russell; University of Toronto
   presented by: Thomas Russell, University of Toronto
 

Empirical Bayesian Estimation of Treatment Effects
By Christopher Adams; Federal Trade Commission
   presented by: Christopher Adams, Federal Trade Commission
 
Session 59: Network Models
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M510
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Michaela Kesina, ETH Zurich
 

A structural model of homophily and clustering in social networks
By Angelo Mele; Johns Hopkins University
   presented by: Angelo Mele, Johns Hopkins University
 

Spatial Dependence and Common Factors in the English Housing Market: A STARF Model
By Beulah Chelva; University of Leeds
Yongcheol Shin; York
   presented by: Beulah Chelva, University of Leeds
 

Normal Approximation in Strategic Network Formation
By Michael Leung; USC
Hyungsik Roger Moon; University of Southern California
   presented by: Hyungsik Roger Moon, University of Southern California
 

Estimation of models with an endogenous spatial or network matrix - a transformation approach
By Michaela Kesina; ETH Zurich
   presented by: Michaela Kesina, ETH Zurich
 
Session 60: Housing Markets
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2670
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Albert Zevelev, Baruch CUNY
 

Imperfect Information, Learning and Housing Market Dynamics
By Christophe BRUNEEL; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: Christophe BRUNEEL, Toulouse School of Economics
 

Housing Price Network Effects from Public Transit Investment: Evidence from Vancouver
By Alex Chernoff; Bank of Canada
Andrea Craig; Queen's Unviersity
   presented by: Alex Chernoff, Bank of Canada
 

Is my rental price overestimated? A small area index for Germany
By Lea Eilers; RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research
   presented by: Lea Eilers, RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research
 

Does Collateral Value Affect Asset Prices? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Texas
By Albert Zevelev; Baruch CUNY
   presented by: Albert Zevelev, Baruch CUNY
 
Session 61: Model Uncertainty
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Christophe Gaillac, CREST and TSE
 

How to use economic theory to improve estimators
By Pirmin Fessler; Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Maximilian Kasy; Harvard University
   presented by: Maximilian Kasy, Harvard University
 

Inference for Impulse Responses under Model Uncertainty
By Lenard Lieb; Maastricht University
Stephan Smeekes; Maastricht University
   presented by: Lenard Lieb, Maastricht University
 

Minimizing Sensitivity to Model Misspecification
By Stephane Bonhomme; University of Chicago
Martin Weidner; University College London
   presented by: Stephane Bonhomme, University of Chicago
 

Testing Rational Expectations using Data Combination
By Xavier D'Haultfoeuille; CREST
Christophe Gaillac; CREST and TSE
Arnaud Maurel; Duke University
   presented by: Christophe Gaillac, CREST and TSE
 
Session 62: Education II
June 27, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-3840
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Laura Hospido, Banco de España and IZA
 

The Effects of Schoolwide Tracking on Low and High Skill Students: Evidence from South Korea
By Seungwoo Chin; University of Southern California
Eunjee Kwon; University of Southern California, USC
   presented by: Eunjee Kwon, University of Southern California, USC
 

The Dynamics and Determinants of Adolescent Bullying Victimisation
[slides]
By Georgios Chrysanthou; University of Alicante
Chrysovalantis Vasilakis; Bangor University
   presented by: Georgios Chrysanthou, University of Alicante
 

The Impact of High School Financial Education on Financial Knowledge and Choices: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Spain
By Olympia Bover; Bank of Spain
Laura Hospido; Banco de España
Ernesto Villanueva; Banco de España
   presented by: Laura Hospido, Banco de España and IZA
 
Session 63: Plenary lecture: Alfred Galichon
June 27, 2018 16:30 to 17:30
 
Session Organizer: ,
 
Session 64: Plenary lecture: Guido Imbens
June 28, 2018 9:00 to 10:00
 
Session Organizer: ,
 
Session 65: Time variation in macroeconomic dynamics
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M510
 
Session Organizer: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Session Chair: Luis Uzeda, Bank of Canada
 

Non-linear effects of government spending shocks in the US. Evidence from state-level data.
By Haroon Mumtaz; Queen Mary
Laura Sunder-Plassmann; University of Copenhagen
   presented by: Haroon Mumtaz, Queen Mary
 

A Panel Smooth Transition Model for the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: New Evidence from the New EU Member States
By Nidhaleddine BEN CHEIKH; ESSCA School of Management (France)
   presented by: Nidhaleddine BEN CHEIKH, ESSCA School of Management (France)
 

Common Sources of Instabilities in Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Factor-TVP Approach
By Pooyan Amir Ahmadi; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Dalibor Stevanovic; Université du Québec à Montréal
   presented by: Dalibor Stevanovic, Université du Québec à Montréal
 

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Trend Inflation: Evidence from Models with Drifting and Cross-Correlated Parameters
By Luis Uzeda; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Luis Uzeda, Bank of Canada
 
Session 66: Identification in SVARs II
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-R120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Srecko Zimic, European Central Bank
 

Identification through Heterogeneity
By Pooyan Amir Ahmadi; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Thorsten Drautzburg; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
   presented by: Pooyan Amir Ahmadi, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champai
 

Proxy-SVAR as a Bridge for Identification with Mixed Frequency Data
By Andrea Giovanni Gazzani; Bank of Italy
Alejandro Vicondoa; Catholic University of Chile
   presented by: Alejandro Vicondoa, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
 

Stargazing with Structural VARs: Shock Identification via Independent Component Analysis
By Dmitry Kulikov; Eesti Pank
Aleksei Netsunajev; Bank of Estonia
   presented by: Dmitry Kulikov, Eesti Pank
 

The Importance of Foreign Shocks on Money Market Rates: Event-Study Magnitude Restriction
By Srecko Zimic; European Central Bank
   presented by: Srecko Zimic, European Central Bank
 
Session 67: Oil prices
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Lanouar Charfeddine, Qatar University
 

Nonlinear Intermediary Pricing\\ in the Oil Futures Market
[slides]
By Daniel Bierbaumer; DIW Berlin
Malte Rieth; DIW Berlin
Anton Velinov; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Anton Velinov, DIW Berlin
 

The Transmission of Exogenous Commodity and Oil Prices shocks to Latin America - A Panel VAR approach
By Rocio Gondo; Banco Central de Reserva del Peru
Fernando Perez Forero; Banco Central de Reserva del Peru
   presented by: Rocio Gondo, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru
 

The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption
By Reinhard Ellwanger; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Reinhard Ellwanger, Bank of Canada
 

Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?
By Lanouar Charfeddine; Qatar University
Tony Klein; Faculty of Business and Economics, Technische Universitat Dresden, Germany
Thomas Walther; Institute for Operations Research and Computational Finance, University of St.Gallen, Switzerland
   presented by: Lanouar Charfeddine, Qatar University
 
Session 68: Volatility modeling III
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2630
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Yongdeng Xu, Cardiff University
 

Stylized Facts for Extended HEAVY/GARCH models and MEM: the importance of asymmetries, power transformations, long memory, structural breaks and spillovers
By Menelaos Karanasos; Brunel University
YONGDENG XU; Cardiff Business School,Cardiff University
Yfanti Stavroula; Lancaster University
   presented by: Yfanti Stavroula, Lancaster University
 

Modelling Intraday Correlations using Multivariate GARCH
By Adam Clements; Queensland University of Technology
Ayesha Scott; Auckland University of Technology
Annastiina Silvennoinen; Queensland University of Technology
   presented by: Ayesha Scott, Auckland University of Technology
 

Filtering With Confidence: In-sample Confidence Bands For GARCH Filters
By Marcin Zamojski; University of Gothenburg
   presented by: Marcin Zamojski, University of Gothenburg
 

Matrix Inequality Constraints for Vector (Asymmetric Power) GARCH/HEAVY Models and MEM with spillovers: some New (Mixture) Formulations
By Menelaos Karanasos; Brunel University
Yongdeng Xu; Cardiff University
   presented by: Yongdeng Xu, Cardiff University
 
Session 69: Macro-Finance III
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2155
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Ana Iregui, Banco de la Republica
 

Risk Sharing, Efficiency of Capital Allocation, and the Connection between Banks and the Real Economy
By Alessandro Barattieri; Collegio Carlo Alberto and ESG UQAM
Maya Eden; World Bank
Dalibor Stevanovic; Université du Québec à Montréal
   presented by: Alessandro Barattieri, ESG UQAM
 

Do US and global shocks matter for EMEs financial conditions?
By Ana Simona Manu; ECB
   presented by: Ana Simona Manu, ECB
 

Financial Globalization and Bank Lending: The Limits of Domestic Monetary Policy?
By Jin Cao; Norges Bank
   presented by: Jin Cao, Norges Bank
 

Interest rate convergence across maturities: Evidence from bank data in an emerging market economy
By Mark Holmes; University of Waikato
Ana Iregui; Banco de la Republica
Jesus Otero; Universidad del Rosario
   presented by: Ana Iregui, Banco de la Republica
 
Session 70: Forecast combination and evaluation II
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Michael McCracken, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
 

Testing Forecast Accuracy of Expectiles and Quantiles with the Extremal Consistent Loss Functions
By Yu-Min Yen; National Chengchi University
   presented by: Yu-Min Yen, National Chengchi University
 

Dynamic multivariate posterior predictive checks for macroeconomic density forecasts
By Andrei Sarychev; Bank of England; European Central Bank
   presented by: Andrei Sarychev, European Central Bank
 

An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts
By Michael McCracken; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
   presented by: Michael McCracken, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
 
Session 71: Fiscal policy
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-3870
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Tatiana Kirsanova, University of Glasgow
 

Sources of Borrowing and Fiscal Multipliers
By Romanos Priftis; Bank of Canada
Srecko Zimic; European Central Bank
   presented by: Romanos Priftis, Bank of Canada
 

Measuring the Strength of the Theories of Government Size
By Andros Kourtellos; University of Cyprus, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Alex Lenkoski; Norwegian Computing Center
Kyriakos Petrou; University of Cyprus
   presented by: Alex Lenkoski, Norwegian Computing Center
 

On the relevance of double tax treaties in the presence of treaty shopping
By Kunka Petkova; Vienna University of Economics and Busin
Andrzej Stasio; Vienna University of Econ. and Bus.
Martin Zagler; WU Vienna University of Economics and UPO University of Eastern Piedmont
   presented by: Andrzej Stasio, Vienna University of Econ. and Bus.
 

Sustainable Policy Equilibria in a Monetary Union
By Tatiana Kirsanova; University of Glasgow
Celsa Machado; ISCAP
Ana Paula Ribeiro; CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia do Porto
   presented by: Tatiana Kirsanova, University of Glasgow
 
Session 72: Survey Forecasts and Expectation Formation I
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2205
 
Session Organizer: Raffaella Giacomini, University College London
Session Chair: Zhao Han, College of William and Mary
 

Expectation Formation Following Large Unexpected Shocks
By Scott Baker; Northwestern University
Tucker McElroy; U.S. Census Bureau
Xuguang Sheng; American University
   presented by: Xuguang Sheng, American University
 

Robust Inference under Time-Varying Volatility - A Real-Time Evaluation of Professional Forecasters
By Matei Demetrescu; University of Kiel
Christoph Hanck; Universität Duisburg-Essen
Robinson Kruse; CREATES, Aarhus University
   presented by: Christoph Hanck, Universität Duisburg-Essen
 

Central Bank Credibility and Inflation Expectations: A Microfounded Forecasting Approach
By Joao Issler; Getulio Vargas Foundation
Ana Flavia Santos; FGV
   presented by: Joao Issler, Getulio Vargas Foundation
 

Roles of Higher-Order Expectations on Inflation and Expected Inflation: An Analytical Approach and Evidence from Survey Data
By Zhao Han; College of William and Mary
Ruoyun Mao; Indiana University
   presented by: Zhao Han, College of William and Mary
 
Session 73: Financial econometrics III
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-R150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Markus Michaelsen, Universität Hamburg
 

Dynamic portfolio overlap networks, contagion, and the credit spread puzzle
By Dieter Wang; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Iman Van Lelyveld; De Nederlandsche Bank
Julia Schaumburg; VU University Amsterdam
   presented by: Julia Schaumburg, VU University Amsterdam
 

Long-term investing under uncertain parameter instability
By Bart Keijsers; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Bart Keijsers, Erasmus University Rotterdam
 

Realized Peaks over Threshold: a Time-Varying Extreme Value Approach with High-Frequency based Measures
By Marco Bee; University of Trento
Debbie Dupuis; HEC Montréal
Luca Trapin; Scuola Normale Superiore
   presented by: Debbie Dupuis, HEC Montréal
 

Information Flow Dependence in Financial Markets
By Markus Michaelsen; Universität Hamburg
   presented by: Markus Michaelsen, Universität Hamburg
 
Session 74: Monetary Policy I
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2240
 
Session Organizer: Francesco Bianchi, Duke University
Session Chair: Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University
 

Monetary Policy and Household (De-)leveraging
By Martin Harding; DIW Berlin
Mathias Klein; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Martin Harding, DIW Berlin
 

In Fed Watchers' Eyes: Hawks, Doves and Monetary Policy
By Klodiana Istrefi; Banque de France
   presented by: Klodiana Istrefi, Banque de France
 

Monetary Policy and its Effect on Regional Employment
By Fergus Cumming
   presented by: Fergus Cumming,
 

A structural investigation of monetary policy shifts
By Yoosoon Chang; Indiana University
Fei Tan; Saint Louis University
Xin Wei; Indiana University
   presented by: Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University
 
Session 75: Regression discontinuity
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2895
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Ying-Ying Lee, University of California, Irvine
 

Impossible Inference in Econometrics: Theory and Applications
By Marinho Bertanha; University of Notre Dame
Marcelo Moreira; FGV
   presented by: Marinho Bertanha, University of Notre Dame
 

Coverage Optimal Confidence Intervals, with Application to Regression Discontinuity Designs
By Max Farrell; University of Chicago Booth
   presented by: Max Farrell, University of Chicago Booth
 

Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Continuous Treatment
By Yingying Dong; University of California Irvine
Ying-Ying Lee; University of California, Irvine
   presented by: Ying-Ying Lee, University of California, Irvine
 
Session 76: Discrete Choice
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-3840
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Zhentong Lu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
 

Estimating Heterogeneous Effects in Binary Response Models
By Anastasia Semykina; Florida State University
   presented by: Anastasia Semykina, Florida State University
 

Relaxing Conditional Independence in an Endogenous Binary Response Model
By Alyssa Carlson; Michigan State University
   presented by: Alyssa Carlson, Michigan State University
 

Identification and Estimation of Triangular Models with a Binary Treatment
By Santiago Pereda-Fernández; Banca d'Italia
   presented by: Santiago Pereda-Fernández, Banca d'Italia
 
Session 77: Treatment Effects II
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-R160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Giovanni Mellace, University of Southern Denmark
 

Program Evaluation in the Presence of Strategic Interactions
By Daron Acemoglu; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Francis DiTraglia; University of Pennsylvania
Camilo Garcia-Jimeno; University of Pennsylvania
Rossa O'Keeffe-O'Donovan; University of Oxford
   presented by: Francis DiTraglia, University of Pennsylvania
 

Two-Sample Estimation as an Alternative to Instrumental Variable Estimation in the Presence of Omitted Variables
By Masayuki Hirukawa; Setsunan University
Irina Murtazashvili; Drexel University
Artem Prokhorov; University of Sydney
   presented by: Irina Murtazashvili, Drexel University
 

Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control
[slides]
By Giovanni Mellace; University of Southern Denmark
   presented by: Giovanni Mellace, University of Southern Denmark
 
Session 78: Health Economics II
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M140
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Daniel Avdic, CINCH and University of Duisburg-Essen
 

Impact of DRG refinement on the choice between scheduled C-section and normal delivery: recent evidence from France
By Aleksandr Proshin; Paris School of Economics
Alexandre Cazenave-Lacroutz; INSEE-CREST
Zeynep Or; Institute for research and information i
   presented by: Aleksandr Proshin, Paris School of Economics
 

Decomposing the Decline in Drinking and Driving during "The Other Great Moderation"
By Darren Grant; Sam Houston State University
   presented by: Darren Grant, Sam Houston State University
 

Information shocks and provider adaptation: Evidence from interventional cardiology
By Daniel Avdic; CINCH and University of Duisburg-Essen
Stephanie von Hinke; University of Bristol
Carol Propper
Johan Vikström; IFAU-Uppsala
   presented by: Daniel Avdic, CINCH and University of Duisburg-Essen
 

Patients are different! Explaining the relation between pills and cholesterol
By Domenico Depalo; Banca d'Italia
   presented by: Domenico Depalo, Banca d'Italia
 
Session 79: Sample Selection
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2670
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Yulong Wang, Syracuse University
 

Additive Nonparametric Sample Selection Models with Endogeneity
By Deniz Ozabaci; University of New Hampshire
   presented by: Deniz Ozabaci, University of New Hampshire
 

Wage Decompositions and Sample Selection: Evidence for the United States
By Aico van Vuuren; University of Gothenburg
   presented by: Aico van Vuuren, University of Gothenburg
 

FISCAL AUSTERITY AND INCOME INEQUALITY: WHO BEARS THE COSTS?
By Vivian Norambuena; Universidad de Chile
   presented by: Vivian Norambuena, Universidad de Chile
 

Unbiased Estimation of Tail Properties in Small Samples with Complete, Censored, or Truncated Data
By Yulong Wang; Syracuse University
   presented by: Yulong Wang, Syracuse University
 
Session 80: Trade
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-3610
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Romina Safojan, Tilburg University
 

Dollar funding and firm-level exports
By Antoine Berthou; Bank of France
Guillaume Horny; Banque de France
Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier; Banque de France
   presented by: Guillaume Horny, Banque de France
 

Do Investment Agreements Necessarily Cause Offshoring? The Canada-Peru Case
By Stephanie Houle; McMaster University
   presented by: Stephanie Houle, McMaster University
 

Export Manufacturing Competition Effects on Labour Markets and the Family: Evidence from Mexico
By Manuel Alejandro Estefan Davila; University College London
   presented by: Manuel Alejandro Estefan Davila, University College London
 

The Effect of Exports on Labor Informality: Evidence from Argentina
By Romina Safojan; Tilburg University
   presented by: Romina Safojan, Tilburg University
 
Session 81: Teachers and Schools
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M180
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Yun Pu, The Ohio State University
 

Knowledge is Power: School Construction & Intergenerational Human Capital
By Naveen Sunder; Cornell University
   presented by: Naveen Sunder, Cornell University
 

The Effect of Teacher Bonuses on Learning Outcomes and the Distribution of Teacher Skill: Evidence from Rural Schools in Peru
By Juan F. Castro; Universidad del Pacifico
   presented by: Juan F. Castro, Universidad del Pacifico
 

Tuition subsidies and overeducation
By Ciprian Domnisoru; Carnegie Mellon University
   presented by: Ciprian Domnisoru, Carnegie Mellon University
 

College Admission in Three Chinese Provinces: Boston Mechanism vs. Deferred Acceptance Mechanism
By Yun Pu; The Ohio State University
   presented by: Yun Pu, The Ohio State University
 
Session 82: Development
June 28, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Kholekile Malindi, Stellenbosch University
 

An Empirical Equilibrium Model of Formal and Informal Credit Markets in Developing Countries
By Fan Wang; University of Houston
   presented by: Fan Wang, University of Houston
 

Local Violence, Market Transactions and Living Standard: Disruptive Impact of the Mexican Drug War, 2001–2012
By Alberto Iniguez-Montiel; University of Tokyo
Daiji Kawaguchi; University of Tokyo
   presented by: Alberto Iniguez-Montiel, University of Tokyo
 

Incentive, Self-selection, and Social Norm in Labor Contract: A Two-stage Field Experiment in the Philippines
By Jun Goto; Hitotsubashi University
Yuki Higuchi; Nagoya City University
   presented by: Yuki Higuchi, Nagoya City University
 

An employer learning model of the South African racial wage gap
By Kholekile Malindi; Stellenbosch University
   presented by: Kholekile Malindi, Stellenbosch University
 
Session 83: (Structural) VARs
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2205
 
Session Organizer: Raffaella Giacomini, University College London
Session Chair: Michal Franta, Czech National Bank
 

Bayesian Structural VAR models: an extended approach
By Martin Bruns; DIW Berlin
Michele Piffer; Queen Mary, University of London
   presented by: Martin Bruns, DIW Berlin
 

A Class of Time-Varying Parameter Structural VARs for Inference under Exact or Set Identification
[slides]
By Mark Bognanni; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
   presented by: Mark Bognanni, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
 

Shrinkage for Set-Identified SVAR
[slides]
By Alessio Volpicella; Queen Mary University
   presented by: Alessio Volpicella, Queen Mary University
 

The Likelihood of Effective Lower Bound Events
By Michal Franta; Czech National Bank
   presented by: Michal Franta, Czech National Bank
 
Session 84: Labor markets and the macroeconomy
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2240
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Svetlana Rujin, RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
 

Slow Recoveries and Labor Market Polarization
By Wen Zhang; Renmin University of China
   presented by: Wen Zhang, Renmin University of China
 

Gender Differences in the Volatility of Work Hours and Labor Demand
By Amy Guisinger; Lafayette College
   presented by: Amy Guisinger, Lafayette College
 

Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence
By Francesco Furlanetto; Norges Bank
Ørjan Robstad; Norges Bank
   presented by: Francesco Furlanetto, Norges Bank
 

Labor Market Outcomes of Technology Shocks: International Perspective
By Svetlana Rujin; RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
   presented by: Svetlana Rujin, RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
 
Session 85: Nowcasting
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2670
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Kajal Lahiri, State University New York Albany
 

Bayesian Adaptive Penalized MIDAS Regressions: Estimation, Selection, and Prediction
By Matteo Mogliani; Banque de France
Clément Marsilli; Banque de France
   presented by: Matteo Mogliani, Banque de France
 

Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting
By Alberto Caruso; Confindustria
   presented by: Alberto Caruso, Confindustria
 

Uncertain Kingdom: A Framework for Nowcasting GDP and its Revisions
By Nikoleta Anesti; Bank of England
Ana Beatriz Galvao; University of Warwick
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino; Bank of England
   presented by: Nikoleta Anesti, Bank of England
 

Forecasting New York State Tax Revenue: A Factor MIDAS Approach
By Kajal Lahiri; State University New York Albany
Cheng Yang; University at Albany-State University of New York
Onur Bugdayci; University at Albany-State University of New York
John Delaney; University at Albany-State University of New York
   presented by: Kajal Lahiri, State University New York Albany
 
Session 86: Forecasting business cycles
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M180
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Haixi Li, Freddie Mac
 

Vulnerable Growth
By Tobias Adrian; International Monetary Fund
Nina Boyarchenko; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Domenico Giannone; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
   presented by: Domenico Giannone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
 

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-state Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model
By Kai Carstensen; University of Kiel
Markus Heinrich; University of Kiel
Magnus Reif; ifo Institute
Maik Wolters; University of Jena
   presented by: Magnus Reif, ifo Institute
 

Dating Regime Switching in real time: A Bayesian decision theoretic approach
[slides]
By Haixi Li; Freddie Mac
   presented by: Haixi Li, Freddie Mac
 
Session 87: News and Sentiments II
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2155
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Leonardo Melosi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
 

Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks
By Andre Kurmann; Drexel University
Eric Sims; University of Notre Dame
   presented by: Eric Sims, University of Notre Dame
 

Time Varying Sentiments and the Business Cycle
By Matteo Barigozzi; LSE
Fabrizio Venditti; Banca d'Italia
   presented by: Fabrizio Venditti, Banca d'Italia
 

Amplification effects of news shocks through uncertainty
By Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia; University of Warwick
   presented by: Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, University of Warwick
 

News and Noise in the Post-Great Recession Recovery
By Renato Faccini; Queen Mary University
Leonardo Melosi; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
   presented by: Leonardo Melosi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
 
Session 88: Uncertainty in Macroeconomics II
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Francesco Bianchi, Duke University
 

Non-linear Effects of Uncertainty
By Andreas Dibiasi; ETH Zurich
   presented by: Andreas Dibiasi, ETH Zurich
 

A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty
By Alexander Richter; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Nathaniel Throckmorton; College of William & Mary
   presented by: Alexander Richter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
 

Pricing Macroeconomic Uncertainty
By Francesco Bianchi; Duke University
Howard Kung; London Business School
Mikhail Tirskikh; London Business School
   presented by: Francesco Bianchi, Duke University
 
Session 89: Monetary Policy II
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-3870
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Erwan Gautier, Banque de France
 

Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate predictability
[slides]
By Johannes Graeb; European Central Bank
Thomas Kostka; European Central Bank
   presented by: Johannes Graeb, European Central Bank
 

Who listens when the ECB talks? Spillovers from ECB's monetary policy and communication
By Saskia ter Ellen; Norges Bank
Edvard Jansen; Formuesforvaltning
Nina Midthjell
   presented by: Saskia ter Ellen, Norges Bank
 

Shocks vs Menu Costs: Patterns of Price Rigidity in an Estimated Multi-Sector Menu-Cost Model
By Erwan Gautier; Banque de France
   presented by: Erwan Gautier, Banque de France
 
Session 90: The effect of fiscal shocks
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-3840
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Joan Paredes, European Central Bank
 

Adaptive Learning and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area
By Ewoud Quaghebeur; Ghent University
   presented by: Ewoud Quaghebeur, Ghent University
 

The Network Effects of Fiscal Adjustments
By Edoardo Briganti; Bocconi University
Carlo Ambrogio Favero; Bocconi University
Madina Karamysheva; National Research University Higher School of Economics
   presented by: Madina Karamysheva, National Research University Higher School of Economics
 

Subsidising car purchases in the euro area: Any spill-over on production?
By Joan Paredes; European Central Bank
   presented by: Joan Paredes, European Central Bank
 
Session 91: Time Series Models III
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2895
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Arnaud Dufays, Universite Laval
 

New robust inference for predictive regressions
[slides]
By Rustam Ibragimov; Imperial College London and Innopolis University
Anton Skrobotov; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration and Innopolis University
   presented by: Anton Skrobotov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration and Innopolis University
 

Testing for Parameter Instability in Predictive Regression Models
[slides]
By Iliyan Georgiev; University of Bologna
David Harvey; University of Nottingham
Steve Leybourne; Nottingham University
Robert Taylor; University of Essex
   presented by: Robert Taylor, University of Essex
 

Bootstrapping Structural Change Tests
By Otilia Boldea; Tilburg University
Adriana Cornea; York University
Alastair Hall; University of Manchester
   presented by: Otilia Boldea, Tilburg University
 

Relevant parameter change in structural break models
By Arnaud Dufays; Universite Laval
Jeroen Rombouts; ESSEC Business School
   presented by: Arnaud Dufays, Universite Laval
 
Session 92: Empirical Finance IV
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M510
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: christian Gourieroux, University of Toronto and CREST
 

Aggregate and Firm level volatility: the role of acquisitions and disposals.
By Sean Holly; Cambridge University
   presented by: Sean Holly, Cambridge University
 

Net trade credit and firm performance
By Stylianos Asimakopoulos; University of Bath
Filipa Da Silva Fernandes; Coventry University
Yiannis Karavias; University of Birmingham
   presented by: Yiannis Karavias, University of Birmingham
 

Inefficiency and Bank Failures: A Joint Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Frontier Model and a Hazards Model
By Jim Sanchez; Universidad EAFIT
   presented by: Jim Sanchez, Universidad EAFIT
 

Disastrous Defaults
By christian Gourieroux; University of Toronto and CREST
Alain Monfort; CREST and Banque de France
Sarah Mouabbi; Banque de France
Jean-Paul RENNE; University of Lausanne
   presented by: christian Gourieroux, University of Toronto and CREST
 
Session 93: Spatial Econometrics II
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-2630
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Guillaume Pouliot, University of Chicago
 

The LLN and CLT for Kernel-Weighted U-Processes of Spatially Dependent Data with Applications to Nonparametric Model Specification Testing
By Yiguo Sun; UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH
   presented by: Yiguo Sun, UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH
 

Fast and Scalable Variational Bayes Estimation of Spatial Econometric Models for Gaussian Data
By Guohui Wu; SAS Institute Inc.
   presented by: Guohui Wu, SAS Institute Inc.
 

Spatial Econometrics for Misaligned Data
By Guillaume Pouliot; University of Chicago
   presented by: Guillaume Pouliot, University of Chicago
 
Session 94: Weak Identification
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-R120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Gregory Cox, Columbia University
 

A more powerful subvector Anderson Rubin test in linear instrumental variable regression
By Frank Kleibergen; University of Amsterdam
   presented by: Frank Kleibergen, University of Amsterdam
 

Inference in Second-Order Identified Models
By Prosper Dovonon; Concordia University
Alastair Hall; University of Manchester
Frank Kleibergen; University of Amsterdam
   presented by: Prosper Dovonon, Concordia University
 

Identification-Robust Nonparametric Inference in a Linear IV Model
By Bertille Antoine; Simon Fraser University
Pascal Lavergne; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: Bertille Antoine, Simon Fraser University
 

Weak Identification in a Class of Generically Identified Models with an Application to Factor Models
By Gregory Cox; Columbia University
   presented by: Gregory Cox, Columbia University
 
Session 95: Panel Data
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M140
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Takahide Yanagi, Hitotsubashi University
 

Second-order corrected likelihood for nonlinear panel models with fixed effects
[slides]
By Geert Dhaene; KU Leuven
Yutao Sun; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Geert Dhaene, KU Leuven
 

A regularization approach to the dynamic panel data model estimation
By Marine Carrasco; University of Montreal
Ada Nayihouba; University of Montreal
   presented by: Marine Carrasco, University of Montreal
 

Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models: A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective
By Laura Liu; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Laura Liu, Federal Reserve Board
 

Kernel Estimation for Panel Data with Heterogeneous Dynamics
By Ryo Okui; NYU Shanghai
Takahide Yanagi; Hitotsubashi University
   presented by: Takahide Yanagi, Hitotsubashi University
 
Session 96: Applications of Machine Learning
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Matthew Harding, University of California, Irvine
 

Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programmes: A Machine Learning Approach
By Michael Knaus; University of St. Gallen
Michael Lechner; University of St. Gallen
Anthony Strittmatter; University of St. Gallen
   presented by: Anthony Strittmatter, University of St. Gallen
 

Instrument Validity Tests with Causal Trees: With an Application to the Same-sex Instrument
By Raphael Guber; Munich Center for the Economics of Aging
   presented by: Raphael Guber, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging
 

Informative Dimensionality Reduction Using a Deep Autoencoder
By Matthew Harding; University of California, Irvine
   presented by: Matthew Harding, University of California, Irvine
 
Session 97: Education III
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-M150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Julie Pernaudet, University of Chicago
 

Part-time Vocational Education and Training and Labour Market Outcomes; a Dynamic Approach
By Brecht Neyt; Ghent University
Dieter Verhaest; KU Leuven
Stijn Baert; Ghent University; Research Foundation -- Flanders; University of Antwerp
   presented by: Brecht Neyt, Ghent University
 

The Puzzle of Educated Unemployment in West Africa
By Esther Mirjam Girsberger; University of Lausanne
Meango Romuald; Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy
   presented by: Meango Romuald, Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy
 

Raising the Take-up of Higher Education Grants among Disadvantaged Students: Evidence from a Field Experiment
By Julie Pernaudet; University of Chicago
   presented by: Julie Pernaudet, University of Chicago
 

Vocational high school graduates wage gap: the role of cognitive skills and firms
By Hugo Reis; Banco de Portugal
   presented by: Hugo Reis, Banco de Portugal
 
Session 98: Labor Markets II
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-R150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Matthias Wieschemeyer, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
 

Kids and (or) Career? Family Policies' Effects on Women's Life Cycle Fertility and Labor Supply
By Hanna Wang; University of Pennsylvania
   presented by: Hanna Wang, University of Pennsylvania
 

What are the main obstacles to hiring after recessions in Europe?
By Simon Savsek; European Investment Bank
   presented by: Simon Savsek, European Investment Bank
 

Informing employees about training subsidies: Results from a randomized field experiment
By Gerard van den Berg; University of Bristol
Christine Dauth; IAB
Pia Homrighausen; Institute for Employment Research (IAB)
Gesine Stephan; Institute for Employment Research
   presented by: Pia Homrighausen, Institute for Employment Research (IAB)
 

Progressive tax-like effects of inflation: fact or myth? The U.S. post-war experience
By Matthias Wieschemeyer; Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
   presented by: Matthias Wieschemeyer, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
 
Session 99: Inequality
June 28, 2018 14:00 to 16:00
R-R160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Mustapha Douch, Aston University
 

Trends in the distribution of household income and changes in the interdependence between income sources
By Iryna Kyzyma; LISER
Alessio Fusco; LISER
Philippe Van Kerm; LISER and University of Luxembourg
   presented by: Philippe Van Kerm, LISER and University of Luxembourg
 

Average Gaps and Oaxaca–Blinder Decompositions: A Cautionary Tale about Regression Estimates of Racial Differences in Labor Market Outcomes
By Tymon Słoczyński; Brandeis University
   presented by: Tymon Słoczyński, Brandeis University
 

The Convergence of the Gender Pay Gap - An Alternative Estimation Approach -
By Carolina Castagnetti; University of Pavia
Marina Topfer; University of Erlangen-Nuremberg
   presented by: Marina Topfer, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg
 

Aid Effectiveness: Human Rights as a Conditionality Measure?
By Mustapha Douch; Loughborough University
   presented by: Mustapha Douch, Aston University
 
Session 100: Plenary lecture by Alan Timmermann: Pockets of Predictability
June 28, 2018 16:30 to 17:30
 
Session Organizer: ,
 
Session 101: Plenary Lecture: Tim Conley
June 29, 2018 9:00 to 10:00
 
Session Organizer: ,
 
Session 102: Macro-Finance IV
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2895
 
Session Organizer: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Session Chair: Lorenzo Pozzi, Erasmus University Rotterdam
 

Risk endogeneity at the lender-/investor-of-last-resort
By Andre Lucas; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Bernd Schwaab; European Central Bank
Xin Zhang; Sveriges Riksbank
   presented by: Bernd Schwaab, European Central Bank
 

The (un)demand for cash in Canada
By Geoffrey Dunbar; Bank of Canada
Casey Jones; Government of Canada
   presented by: Geoffrey Dunbar, Bank of Canada
 

The Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Capital Requirement Tightenings: Evidence from a Narrative Approach
By Sandra Eickmeier; Deutsche Bundesbank
Benedikt Kolb; European University Institute
Esteban Prieto; Deutsche Bundesbank
   presented by: Esteban Prieto, Deutsche Bundesbank
 

Consumption and wealth in the long run: an integrated unobserved component approach
By Lorenzo Pozzi; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Lorenzo Pozzi, Erasmus University Rotterdam
 
Session 103: Factor Models II
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-R160
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: L. Vanessa Smith, University of York
 

Sieve estimation of time-varying factor loadings
By Ying Lun Cheung; Goethe University Frankfurt
   presented by: Ying Lun Cheung, Goethe University Frankfurt
 

Quantile Factor Models
By JUAN J. DOLADO; European University Institute
   presented by: JUAN J. DOLADO, European University Institute
 

Short T Dynamic Panel Data Models with Individual and Interactive Time Effects
[slides]
By Kazuhiko Hayakawa; Hiroshima University
M. Hashem Pesaran; University of Southern California, and Trinity College, Cambridge
L. Vanessa Smith; University of York
   presented by: L. Vanessa Smith, University of York
 
Session 104: Exchange rates
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: David Papell, University of Houston
 

The Macroeconomic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements in Emerging Market Economies
By Pablo Anaya; Freie Universität Berlin, DIW Berlin
Michael Hachula; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Pablo Anaya, Freie Universität Berlin, DIW Berlin
 

Exchange Rate Determination under Inflation Targeting: A Microstructural Approach for Emerging Economies
By Fredy Gamboa-Estrada; Banco de la Republica
   presented by: Fredy Gamboa-Estrada, Banco de la Republica
 

Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates
By Luca Dedola; European Central Bank
Georgios Georgiadis; European Central Bank
Johannes Graeb; European Central Bank
Arnaud Mehl; European Central Bank
   presented by: Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
 

Long-Run Purchasing Parity Redux
By David Papell; University of Houston
Ruxandra Prodan; University of Houston
   presented by: David Papell, University of Houston
 
Session 105: Inflation dynamics II
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2155
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Viacheslav Sheremirov, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
 

Global Factors and Trend Inflation
By Gunes Kamber; Bank for International Settlements
Benjamin Wong; Reserve Bank of New Zealand
   presented by: Benjamin Wong, Monash University
 

Estimating unobservable inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
By Francesca Rondina; University of Ottawa
   presented by: Francesca Rondina, University of Ottawa
 

Inflation targeting under inflation uncertainty - Multi-economy evidence from a stochastic volatility model
By Matthias Hartmann; Deutsche Bundesbank
Helmut Herwartz; University Göttingen
Maren Ulm; University of Goettingen
   presented by: Maren Ulm, University of Goettingen
 
Session 106: Uncertainty in Macroeconomics III
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2205
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Norbert Metiu, Deutsche Bundesbank
 

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, PERCEPTION AND INTERNET
By Maria Elena Bontempi; University of Bologna
Roberto Golinelli; University of Bologna
Matteo Squadrani; University of Bologna
   presented by: Maria Elena Bontempi, University of Bologna
 

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the UK.
By Angeliki Theophilopoulou; University of Westminister
   presented by: Angeliki Theophilopoulou, University of Westminister
 

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Regime-Switching DSGE Model with Time-Varying Concern for Model Uncertainty
By Gulserim Ozcan; Bilkent University
   presented by: Gulserim Ozcan, Bilkent University
 

The impact of correlation shocks
By Norbert Metiu; Deutsche Bundesbank
Esteban Prieto; Deutsche Bundesbank
   presented by: Norbert Metiu, Deutsche Bundesbank
 
Session 107: Survey Forecasts and Expectation Formation II
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2240
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Sarantis Tsiaplias, The University of Melbourne
 

Business Cycle Asymmetry and Unemployment Rate Forecasts
By John Galbraith; McGill University
Simon van Norden; HEC Montréal
   presented by: Simon van Norden, Mr
 

Conformism and Inflation Expectations Surveys
By Rolande KPEKOU TOSSOU; Université Laval
   presented by: Rolande KPEKOU TOSSOU, Université Laval
 

From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: professional forecasters' view on multi-horizon uncertainty
By Gergely Ganics; Bank of Spain
Barbara Rossi; ICREA-Univ. Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE
Tatevik Sekhposyan; Texas A&M University
   presented by: Gergely Ganics, Bank of Spain
 

What do consumers know about aggregate prices?
By Sarantis Tsiaplias; The University of Melbourne
   presented by: Sarantis Tsiaplias, The University of Melbourne
 
Session 108: Volatility modeling IV
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2630
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Ulrich Hounyo, University at Albany, SUNY
 

Forecasting the Implied Volatility Surface using Put-Call parity Deviations
By Xun Gong; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Xun Gong, Erasmus University Rotterdam
 

On the robustness of the principal volatility components
By Carlos Trucíos; São Paulo School of Economics - FGV. Brazil
Luiz K. Hotta; University of Campinas
Pedro Valls Pereira; Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
   presented by: Pedro Valls Pereira, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
 

Is the diurnal pattern sufficient to explain the intraday variation in volatility? A nonparametric assessment approach
By Kim Christensen; Aarhus University
Ulrich Hounyo; University at Albany, SUNY
Mark Podolskij; Aarhus University
   presented by: Ulrich Hounyo, University at Albany, SUNY
 
Session 109: Time Series Models IV
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-2670
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Alexander Mayer, WHU -- Otto von Beisheim School of Management
 

Regime Switching Models with Multiple Dynamic Factors
By Yoosoon Chang; Indiana University
Joon Park; Indiana University
Shi Qiu; Indiana University Bloomington
   presented by: Shi Qiu, Indiana University Bloomington
 

Confidence Sets for the Date of a Structural Change at the End of a Sample
By Eiji Kurozumi; Hitotsubashi University
   presented by: Eiji Kurozumi, Hitotsubashi University
 

Conditional Inference in Nearly Cointegrated Vector Error-Correction Models with Small Signal-To-Noise Ratio
By Nikolay Gospodinov; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Alex Maynard; University of Guelph
Elena Pesavento; Emory University
   presented by: Alex Maynard, University of Guelph
 

A Three-Step Estimator for Macroeconomic Learning Models
By Alexander Mayer; WHU -- Otto von Beisheim School of Management
   presented by: Alexander Mayer, WHU -- Otto von Beisheim School of Management
 
Session 110: Business Cycle Fluctuations II
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-R150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Pål Boug, Statistics Norway
 

Business cycle narratives
By Vegard Larsen; Norges Bank
Leif Anders Thorsrud; Norges Bank
   presented by: Vegard Larsen, Norges Bank
 

Noise-Ridden Lending Cycles
[slides]
By Elena Afanasyeva; Federal Reserve Board
Jochen Guentner; Johannes Kepler University Linz
   presented by: Elena Afanasyeva, Federal Reserve Board
 

Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
By Jongrim Ha; World Bank
M. Ayhan Kose; World Bank
Christopher Otrok; University of Missouri
Eswar Prasad; Cornell University
   presented by: Jongrim Ha, World Bank
 

The consumption Euler equation or the Keynesian consumption function?
By Pål Boug; Statistics Norway
Aadne Cappelen; Statistics Norway
Eilev Jansen; Statistics Norway
Anders Rygh Swensen; University of Oslo
   presented by: Pål Boug, Statistics Norway
 
Session 111: Prediction with high dimensional data
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-R120
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Sullivan Hué, Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans
 

Lasso variable selection in predictive mixed-frequency model
By Clément Marsilli; Banque de France
   presented by: Clément Marsilli, Banque de France
 

Forecasting Near-equivalence of Linear Dimension Reduction Methods in Large Panels of Macro-variables
By alessandro barbarino; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: alessandro barbarino, Federal Reserve Board
 

Machine Learning for Credit Scoring: Improving Logistic Regression with Non Linear Decision Tree Effects
By Sullivan Hué; Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans
Elena Dumitrescu; Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense
Christophe Hurlin; Université d’Orléans
Sessi Tokpavi; LEO, Laboratory of Economics, University of Orléans
   presented by: Sullivan Hué, Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans
 
Session 112: Return predictability
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M140
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Stefano Soccorsi, Lancaster University Management School
 

Long-Horizon Stock Valuation and Return Forecasts Conditional on Demographic Projections
By Chaoyi Chen; University of Guelph
Nikolay Gospodinov; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Alex Maynard; University of Guelph
Elena Pesavento; Emory University
   presented by: Chaoyi Chen, University of Guelph
 

Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns
By Edouard Djeutem; Bank of Canada
Geoffrey Dunbar; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Edouard Djeutem, Bank of Canada
 

Cyclical Earnings as a Predictor of Stock Index Crash Risk
By Tom Roberts; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Tom Roberts, Bank of Canada
 

Forecasting Stock Returns with Large Dimensional Factor Models
By Alessandro Giovannelli; Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Daniele Massacci; Bank of England
Stefano Soccorsi; Lancaster University Management School
   presented by: Stefano Soccorsi, Lancaster University Management School
 
Session 113: Treatment Effects III
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-3870
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Jasmin Fliegner, TSE
 

Identification with Additively Separable Heterogeneity
By Roy Allen; University of Western Ontario
   presented by: Roy Allen, University of Western Ontario
 

The Problem of Causal Inference without Balance Checking in Natural Experiment Design: An Entropy Balancing Matching Analysis
By CHEN WANG; ANU
   presented by: CHEN WANG, ANU
 

How Bad is Unconfoundedness in Practice? Evidence from Randomised Controlled Trials with Imperfect Compliance
By Sylvain Chabe-Ferret; Toulouse School of Economics
Jasmin Fliegner; TSE
Roland Rathelot; University of Warwick
   presented by: Jasmin Fliegner, TSE
 
Session 114: Health Economics III
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M150
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Siddhartha Sanghi, Washington University in St. Louis
 

Health effects of extending State Pension Age for UK women
By Ludovico Carrino; King's College London
   presented by: Ludovico Carrino, King's College London
 

Measuring Physicians’ Response to Incentives: Evidence on Hours Worked and Multitasking
By Bernard Fortin; Laval University
   presented by: Bernard Fortin, Laval University
 
Session 115: Dynamics of Prices and Returns
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M180
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Veronika Selezneva, CERGE-EI
 

Oil Prices in the Determination of Sovereign CDS Spreads: The Case of Russia
By Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi; Banque de France
   presented by: Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, Banque de France
 

Formation of Market Beliefs in the Oil Market
By Stanislav Anatolyev; CERGE-EI and New Economic School
Sergei Seleznev; -
Veronika Selezneva; CERGE-EI
   presented by: Veronika Selezneva, CERGE-EI
 
Session 116: Economic and Financial Networks
June 29, 2018 10:30 to 12:30
R-M510
 
Session Organizer: ,
Session Chair: Elfried Faton, Laval University
 

The Double-Edged Sword of Global Integration: Robustness, Fragility & Contagion in the International Firm Network
[slides]
By Everett Grant; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Julieta Yung; Bates College
   presented by: Julieta Yung, Bates College
 

Search Frictions in International Good Markets
By Julien Martin; Université du Québec à Montréal
   presented by: Julien Martin, Université du Québec à Montréal
 

Strategic Substitutability in the Workplace: An Empirical Evidence
By Elfried Faton; Laval University
   presented by: Elfried Faton, Laval University
 

116 sessions, 395 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers
 
Index of Participants

Legend: C=chair, P=Presenter, D=Discussant
#ParticipantRoles in Conference
2Aastveit, Knut AreP18
3Adams, ChristopherP58, C58
4Afanasyeva, ElenaP110
5Albuquerque, BrunoP16, C16
6Allen, RoyP113
7Almeida, CaioP4
8Almosova, AnnaP52
9Amir Ahmadi, PooyanP66
10Anaya, PabloP104
11andreini, paoloP34
12Anenberg, ElliotP13, C13
13Anesti, NikoletaP85
14Antoine, BertilleP94
15Aoki, YuP24
16Armstrong, TimothyP39, C39
17Atella, VincenzoP42, C42
18Athanasopoulos, GeorgeP18, C18
19Avdic, DanielP78, C78
20Avouyi-Dovi, SanviP115
21Barattieri, AlessandroP69
22barbarino, alessandroP111
23Barcelo, CristinaP47, C47
24Barnichon, RegisP7
25Belzil, ChristianP12, C12
26BEN CHEIKH, NidhaleddineP65
27Bertanha, MarinhoP75
28Bianchi, FrancescoP88, C88
29Bognanni, MarkP83
30Boldea, OtiliaP91
31Bonhomme, StephaneP61
32Bontempi, Maria ElenaP106
33Botosaru, IreneP47
34Boug, PålP110, C110
35Braun, RobinP57, C57
36Brito, DiegoP51
37Brugnolini, LucaP19
38BRUNEEL, ChristopheP60
39Brunetti, CelsoP8
40Bruns, MartinP83
41Buccheri, GiuseppeP56, C56
42Buncic, DanielP21, C21
43Calonico, SebastianP58
44Calvi, RossellaP11
45Cao, JinP69
46Carlson, AlyssaP76
47Carpentier, AlainP43
48Carrasco, MarineP95
49Carrino, LudovicoP114
50Caruso, AlbertoP85
51Cascaldi-Garcia, DaniloP87
52Castro, Juan F.P81
53CETTE, GilbertP47
54Chakrabarti, AveriP14, C14
55Chang, YoosoonP74, C74
56Charfeddine, LanouarP67, C67
57Chauvet, MarcelleP2
58Chavleishvili, SulkhanP21
59Chelva, BeulahP59
60Chen, ChaoyiP112
61Chernoff, AlexP60
62Cheung, Ying LunP103
63Chrysanthou, GeorgiosP62
64Conlon, ChristopherP46
65Conti, AntonioP3
66Cox, GregoryP94, C94
67Croushore, DeanP49, C49
68Cumming, FergusP74
69CUN, WUKUANGP16
70Dany-Knedlik, GeraldineP29
71De Rezende, RafaelP38
72De Visscher, StefP7
73Del Negro, MarcoP19, C19
74Depalo, DomenicoP78
75Dhaene, GeertP95
76di nino, virginiaP20
77Dibiasi, AndreasP88
78Diez de los Rios, AntonioP35
79DiTraglia, FrancisP77
80Djeutem, EdouardP112
81Djogbenou, AntoineP51
82DOLADO, JUAN J.P103
83Domnisoru, CiprianP81
84Douch, MustaphaP99, C99
85Dovonon, ProsperP94
86Dufays, ArnaudP91, C91
87Dufour, Jean-MarieP30, C30
88Dunbar, GeoffreyP102
89Dupuis, DebbieP73
90Eilers, LeaP60
91Ellwanger, ReinhardP67
92Eo, YunjongP33, C33
93Ericsson, NeilP49
94Estefan Davila, Manuel AlejandroP80
95Fanelli, LucaP32
96Farrell, MaxP75
97Faton, ElfriedP116, C116
98Fernandez, RoxanaP13
99Ferroni, FilippoP31, C31
100Fliegner, JasminP113, C113
101Florysiak, DavidP50
102Forneron, Jean-JacquesP54
103Forti Grazzini, CaterinaP26
104Fortin, BernardP114
105Franta, MichalP83, C83
106Frisancho, VeronicaP44
107Furlanetto, FrancescoP84
108Gaillac, ChristopheP61, C61
109Galaasen, Sigurd MølsterP8
110Galvao, Ana BeatrizP32
111Gamboa-Estrada, FredyP104
112Ganics, GergelyP107
113García-Suaza, AndrésP23
114Gautier, ErwanP89, C89
115Gelain, PaoloP37
116Georgiadis, GeorgiosP104
117Geraci, Marco ValerioP22
118Ghanem, DaliaP14
119Giannone, DomenicoP86
120Giannoni, MarcP37, C37
121Gondo, RocioP67
122Gong, XunP108
123Gourieroux, christianP92, C92
124Graeb, JohannesP89
125Grant, DarrenP78
126Guber, RaphaelP96
127Guisinger, AmyP84
128Guyonvarch, YannickP40
129Gyetvai, AttilaP47
130Ha, JongrimP110
131Hacioglu Hoke, SinemP17
132Hambuckers, JulienP35
133Han, ZhaoP72, C72
134Han, XintongP45
135Han, HeejoonP5
136Hanck, ChristophP72
137Harding, MatthewP96, C96
138Harding, MartinP74
139Hasbi, MaudeP15, C15
140Hecq, AlainP21
141Herbst, EdwardP48
142Higuchi, YukiP82
143Ho, PaulP7
144Holly, SeanP92
145Holtemöller, OliverP41
146Homrighausen, PiaP98
147Horny, GuillaumeP80
148Hospido, LauraP62, C62
149Houle, StephanieP80
150Hounyo, UlrichP108, C108
151Hué, SullivanP111, C111
152Iniguez-Montiel, AlbertoP82
153Ioannidis, ChristosC32
154Iregui, AnaP69, C69
155Issler, JoaoP72
156Istrefi, KlodianaP74
157Jackson Young, LauraP48, C48
158Jales, HugoP41
159Jin, JianjianP6, C6
160Jung, HyunseokP9
161Juodis, ArturasP17, C17
162Ka, KookP32
163Kakar, VenooP44
164Karamysheva, MadinaP90
165Karanasos, MenelaosP54
166Karavias, YiannisP92
167Kashaev, NailP11
168Kasy, MaximilianP61
169Kedagni, DesireP58
170Kei, WendyP24
171Keijsers, BartP73
172Kesina, MichaelaP59, C59
173Khalaf, LyndaP50, C50
174Kima, RichardP36
175Kirsanova, TatianaP71, C71
176Kleibergen, FrankP94
177Knoef, MarikeP26
178Knotek II, EdwardP20
179Kociecki, AndrzejP7, C7
180Kourtellos, AndrosP9, C9
181KPEKOU TOSSOU, RolandeP107
182Krustev, GeorgiP3
183Kufenko, VadimP10
184Kulikov, DmitryP66
185Kurmann, AndreP53
186Kurozumi, EijiP109
187Kwon, EunjeeP62
188Lahiri, KajalP85, C85
189Lakdawala, AeimitP55
190Lan, LanP46
191Langot, FrancoisP48
192Laouenan, MorganeP15
193Larsen, VegardP110
194López Novella, MaritzaP41
195Lee, Ying-YingP75, C75
196Lee, Ji HyungP34
197Lee, JungyoonP9
198Lee, SeojeongP40, C40
199Leiva-Leon, DaniloP33
200Lenkoski, AlexP71
201Lenza, MicheleP53, C53
202Leroux, MaximeP34
203Letterie, WilkoP46, C46
204Lewis, DanielP57
205Leymarie, JérémyP35, C35
206LI, YuhaoP10
207Li, HaixiP86, C86
208Lieb, LenardP61
209Lieli, RobertP18
210Liu, LauraP95
211Liu, RuixuanP10, C10
212Lkhagvasuren, DambaP54, C54
213Lombardi, MarcoP3
214Lu, ZhentongC76
215Luciani, MatteoP51, C51
216Lunsford, KurtP38
217MacKinnon, JamesP40
218Magnac, ThierryP45, C45
219Malindi, KholekileP82, C82
220Manang, FredrickP42
221Mancino, AntonellaP45
222Manu, Ana SimonaP69
223Marcoux, MathieuP25
224Marsilli, ClémentP111
225Martin, JulienP116
226Masini, RicardoP23
227Mayer, AlexanderP109, C109
228Maynard, AlexP109
229McCracken, MichaelP70, C70
230McIntosh, JamesP12
231Mele, AngeloP59
232Mellace, GiovanniP77, C77
233Melosi, LeonardoP87, C87
234Metiu, NorbertP106, C106
235Meyer-Gohde, AlexanderP55
236Michaelsen, MarkusP73, C73
237Mirone, GiorgioP6
238Mogliani, MatteoP85
239Molnar, Timea LauraP12
240Moon, Hyungsik RogerP59
241Morana, ClaudioP50
242Moretti, LauraP2, C2
243Moscelli, GiuseppeP42
244Mumtaz, HaroonP65
245Murtazashvili, IrinaP77
246Negi, AkankshaP11, C11
247Neyt, BrechtP97
248Nongni Donfack, MorvanP4
249Norambuena, VivianP79
250Normandin, MichelP57
251Oberoi, JaideepP5
252Onorante, LucaP29
253Otero, JesusP16
254Ouazad, AmineP8, C8
255Owyang, MichaelP49
256Ozabaci, DenizP79
257Ozcan, GulserimP106
258Paccagnini, AlessiaP37
259Panovska, IrinaP48
260Papell, DavidP104, C104
261Paredes, JoanP90, C90
262Pellegrino, FilippoP29, C29
263Pereda-Fernández, SantiagoP76
264Pernaudet, JulieP97, C97
265Pettenuzzo, DavideP4, C4
266Poelhekke, StevenP36
267Pouliot, GuillaumeP93, C93
268pourkhanali, arminP56
269Pozzi, LorenzoP102, C102
270Prieto, EstebanP102
271Priftis, RomanosP71
272Primiceri, GiorgioP34, C34
273Proshin, AleksandrP78
274Pu, YunP81, C81
275Qiu, ShiP109
276Quaghebeur, EwoudP90
277Raczko, MarekP55, C55
278Rapach, DavidP55
279Reif, MagnusP86
280Reis, HugoP97
281Richter, AlexanderP88
282Roberts, JohnP29
283Roberts, TomP112
284Romuald, MeangoP97
285Rondina, FrancescaP105
286Rossi, BarbaraP31
287ROSSI, FRANCESCAP9
288Rostam-Afschar, DavudP44, C44
289Rostom, MayP26, C26
290Rujin, SvetlanaP84, C84
291Russell, ThomasP58
292Safojan, RominaP80, C80
293Sanchez, JimP92
294Sanghi, SiddharthaC114
295Sant'Anna, Pedro H. C.P41, C41
296Sarychev, AndreiP70
297Sasaki, YuyaP23, C23
298Savsek, SimonP98
299Słoczyński, TymonP99
300Schaumburg, JuliaP73
301Schüssler, RainerP6
302Schlaak, ThoreP56
303Scholten, PatrickP15
304Schwaab, BerndP102
305Scott, AyeshaP68
306Scotti, ChiaraP32
307Sekkel, RodrigoP49
308Selezneva, VeronikaP115, C115
309Semykina, AnastasiaP76
310Shapiro, AdamP2
311Sheng, XuguangP72
312Sheremirov, ViacheslavC105
313Shi, RuoyaoP45
314Shi, XiaoxiaP39
315Shibamoto, MasahikoP31
316Sibbertsen, PhilippP50
317Siemer, MichaelP3, C3
318Silva Lopes, ArturP33
319Silveira, BernardoP14
320Sims, EricP87
321Skrobotov, AntonP91
322Smith, L. VanessaP103, C103
323Snudden, StephenP20, C20
324Soberon, AlexandraP17
325Soccorsi, StefanoP112, C112
326Sokol, AndrejP36
327Sokullu, SenayP15
328Soques, DanielP52
329Stasio, AndrzejP71
330Stavroula, YfantiP68
331Stella, AndreaP53
332Stevanovic, DaliborP65
333Strittmatter, AnthonyP96
334Sun, YiguoP93
335Sunder, NaveenP81
336Taylor, RobertP91
337Tchernis, RustyP11
338ter Ellen, SaskiaP89
339Theophilopoulou, AngelikiP106
340Topfer, MarinaP99
341Tryphonides, AndreasP52, C52
342Tsakou, KaterinaP30
343Tsiaplias, SarantisP107, C107
344Tuzcuoglu, KeremP22, C22
345Ulm, MarenP105
346UNALMIS, IBRAHIMP8
347Ura, TakuyaP39
348Uthemann, AndreasP22
349Uzeda, LuisP65, C65
350Valls Pereira, PedroP108
351van Dijk, HermanP35
352Van Kerm, PhilippeP99
353van Norden, SimonP107
354van Vuuren, AicoP79
355Vasconcelos, GabrielP19
356Velinov, AntonP67
357Venditti, FabrizioP87
358Vera Valdés, J. EduardoP54
359Verbrugge, RandalP52
360Vicondoa, AlejandroP66
361Volpicella, AlessioP83
362WANG, CHENP113
363Wang, YulongP79, C79
364Wang, FanP82
365Wang, HannaP98
366Webb, MatthewP40
367Wei, WeiP30
368Weisser, ReinhardP43, C43
369Wiersma, QuintP13
370Wieschemeyer, MatthiasP98, C98
371Wigger, ChristophP24, C24
372Wilner, LionelP13
373Wong, BenjaminP105
374Wright, JonathanP38
375Wu, GuohuiP93
376Xia, Fan DoraP38, C38
377Xie, ErhaoP25
378Xu, YongdengP68, C68
379Yamagata, TakashiP10
380Yamamoto, YoheiP57
381Yamashita, MamikoP5, C5
382Yanagi, TakahideP95, C95
383Yang, NathanP42
384Yao, ChunP56
385Yen, Yu-MinP70
386Yong, ChenP2
387Ytsma, ErinaP46
388Yu, MengkaiP25, C25
389Yung, JulietaP116
390Zamojski, MarcinP68
391Zevelev, AlbertP60, C60
392Zhang, XuP31
393Zhang, WenP84
394ZHANG, NINGP5
395Zhao, ZhiP51
396Zhong, MolinP37
397Zhu, YuP39
398Zimic, SreckoP66, C66
399Zivanovic, JelenaP36, C36

 

This program was last updated on 2018-07-02 16:46:55 EDT