June 26, 2014
08:15 to 17:00	Registration, Bancroft building
09:00 to 09:10	Opening Address by George Kapetanios (Dean of SEF, QMUL) and M. Hashem Pesaran (Chair of IAAE Board), Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
09:10 to 10:10	Plenary Session I, Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
10:10 to 10:30	Refreshments, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
10:30 to 11:50	Parallel Sessions I, Bancroft building
11:50 to 12:10	Refreshments, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
12:10 to 13:30	Parallel Sessions II, Bancroft building
13:30 to 14:50	Lunch - Poster Session I, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
14:50 to 16:10	Parallel Sessions III, Bancroft building
16:10 to 16:30	Refreshments, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
16:30 to 17:30	Plenary Session II, Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
17:30 to 19:00	Drinks Reception, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
June 27, 2014
08:30 to 17:00	Registration, Bancroft building
09:00 to 10:00	Plenary Session III, Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
10:00 to 10:20	Refreshments, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
10:20 to 11:40	Parallel Sessions IV, Bancroft building
11:40 to 12:00	Refreshments, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
12:00 to 13:20	Parallel Sessions V, Bancroft building
13:20 to 14:40	Lunch - Poster Session II, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
14:40 to 16:00	Parallel Sessions VI, Bancroft building
16:00 to 16:20	Refreshments, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
16:20 to 17:20	Plenary Session IV, Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
18:00 to 21:30	Conference Dinner, Forman's Fish Restaurant, Stratford (transportation from QMUL has been arranged)
June 28, 2014
08:30 to 17:00	Registration, Bancroft building
09:00 to 10:00	Plenary Session V, Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
10:00 to 10:20	Refreshments, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
10:20 to 11:40	Parallel Sessions VII, Bancroft building
11:40 to 12:00	Refreshments, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
12:00 to 13:20	Parallel Sessions VIII, Bancroft building
13:20 to 14:40	Lunch - Poster Session III, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
14:40 to 16:00	Parallel Sessions IX, Bancroft building
16:00 to 16:20	Refreshments, Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
16:20 to 17:40	Parallel Sessions X, Bancroft building
17:40 to 17:45	Closing

Summary of All Sessions
Click here for an index of all participants

#	Date/Time	Location	Type	Title	Papers
1	June 26, 2014 9:10-10:10	Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre	invited	Plenary Session I - JAE Lecture	1
2	June 26, 2014 10:30-11:50	Bancroft building, Room 1.09	contributed	Forecast Uncertainty and Density Forecasts	4
3	June 26, 2014 10:30-11:50	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2	contributed	Recent developments in non-stationary time series	4
4	June 26, 2014 10:30-11:50	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Risk, Returns and Term Structure Models	3
5	June 26, 2014 10:30-11:50	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Theoretical Advances in Panel/Cross Section I	4
6	June 26, 2014 10:30-11:50	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	Macro-Finance: Housing Market	4
7	June 26, 2014 10:30-11:50	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Education, Training, and the Labor Market	4
8	June 26, 2014 10:30-11:50	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Economic Growth	4
9	June 26, 2014 10:30-11:50	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	Advances in Applied Cross Section/Panel I	4
10	June 26, 2014 10:30-11:50	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a	contributed	Macro: Expectation, Indeterminacy	4
11	June 26, 2014 12:10-13:30	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2	contributed	Empirical Applications in Forecasting I	4
12	June 26, 2014 12:10-13:30	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Recent developments in cointegration and persistent time series analysis	4
13	June 26, 2014 12:10-13:30	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bank Stress Tests Macro and Financial Issues at the Zero Lower Bound	4
14	June 26, 2014 12:10-13:30	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	Estimation Issues in Finance: Specification Tests, Spurious Inference and Panel Data Models	4
15	June 26, 2014 12:10-13:30	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Advances in Semi- and Non-Parametric Econometrics I	4
16	June 26, 2014 12:10-13:30	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a	contributed	Empirical Issues in Applied Micro: Education, Unemployment and the Labor Market	4
17	June 26, 2014 12:10-13:30	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Macro: Uncertainty and Instability	4
18	June 26, 2014 12:10-13:30	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Advances in Treatment Effects	4
19	June 26, 2014 13:30-14:50	Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115	poster	Poster: Applied Time Series I	5
20	June 26, 2014 13:30-14:50	Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115	poster	Poster: Time Series, Forecasting and Applied Macroeconomics	5
21	June 26, 2014 13:30-14:50	Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115	poster	Poster: Panel/Cross Section Theory	3
22	June 26, 2014 13:30-14:50	Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115	poster	Poster: Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics	4
23	June 26, 2014 14:50-16:10	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Macro-finance Models	4
24	June 26, 2014 14:50-16:10	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy	4
25	June 26, 2014 14:50-16:10	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	Advances in Spatial Panel Data Model	4
26	June 26, 2014 14:50-16:10	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Time Series Methods I (Instability, Trends)	4
27	June 26, 2014 14:50-16:10	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Multipliers	4
28	June 26, 2014 14:50-16:10	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a	contributed	Health Economics I	3
29	June 26, 2014 14:50-16:10	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	Business Cycles	4
30	June 26, 2014 14:50-16:10	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2	contributed	Macro-Finance: Banks, Risk, Credit	4
31	June 26, 2014 14:50-16:10	Bancroft building, Room 1.09	contributed	Applied Panel/Cross Section: Missing Values, Attrition, Misreporting	4
32	June 26, 2014 16:30-17:30	Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre	invited	Plenary Session II	1
33	June 27, 2014 9:00-10:00	Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre	invited	Plenary Session III	1
34	June 27, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Forecasting and Time Variation	4
35	June 27, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	Banking and Finance	4
36	June 27, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Advances in Semi- and Non-Parametric Econometrics II	4
37	June 27, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a	contributed	Health Economics II	4
38	June 27, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	Time Series Methods II (Model Estimation)	4
39	June 27, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2	contributed	International Macro	3
40	June 27, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Macro: Theoretical VAR	4
41	June 27, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt	4
42	June 27, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.09	contributed	Advances in Applied Cross Section/Panel II	4
43	June 27, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	Special Issues in Forecasting: large datasets, mixed frequency data, and conditional forecasts	4
44	June 27, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Theoretical Advances in Panel/Cross Sections II	3
45	June 27, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Markets, Competition and Regulation	4
46	June 27, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Great Recession, Great Moderation	4
47	June 27, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Monetary Policy I	4
48	June 27, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.09	contributed	Labor Market, Inequality	4
49	June 27, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	International Economics	4
50	June 27, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2	contributed	Politics, Institutions	4
51	June 27, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a	contributed	Applied Cross Section/Panel: Regional and Local Impact	4
52	June 27, 2014 13:20-14:40	Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115	poster	Poster: Empirical Macro	3
53	June 27, 2014 13:20-14:40	Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115	poster	Poster: Applied Cross Section/Panel	9
54	June 27, 2014 13:20-14:40	Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115	poster	Poster: Applied Time Series II	5
55	June 27, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Estimation and Testing	3
56	June 27, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	DSGE Models: Identification and Estimation	4
57	June 27, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Asset Price Jumps	4
58	June 27, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	Advances in Semi- and Non-Parametric Econometrics III	4
59	June 27, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Life-cycle Models	4
60	June 27, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Macro-Finance: Exchange Rate, Emerging Economies	4
61	June 27, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.09	contributed	Monetary Policy II	4
62	June 27, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2	contributed	Fiscal Policy	3
63	June 27, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a	contributed	Time Series Methods III	3
64	June 27, 2014 16:20-17:20	Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre	invited	Plenary Session IV	1
65	June 28, 2014 9:00-10:00	Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre	invited	Plenary Session V	1
66	June 28, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Empirical Applications in Forecasting II	4
67	June 28, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	RastaNews Special Session on Macro-Financial Risk	4
68	June 28, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.09	contributed	Studies on the Indian Economy	4
69	June 28, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Issues in Labor Markets	4
70	June 28, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Time Series Methods IV (Dependence Networks)	4
71	June 28, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Monetary Policy III	3
72	June 28, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	Advances in Finance	4
73	June 28, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2	contributed	Education	4
74	June 28, 2014 10:20-11:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a	contributed	Production Function, Public Goods	4
75	June 28, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Advances in Macroeconomic Models' Design, Identification, Time Variation and Estimation	4
76	June 28, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Wages and the Labor Market	4
77	June 28, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	Time Series Methods V (Regime Switching)	4
78	June 28, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	Financial Crises, Contagion, Risk	4
79	June 28, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.09	contributed	Finance: Equity Prices, Volatility	3
80	June 28, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Uncertainty, Inflation, Interest Rates	4
81	June 28, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Advances in Panel/Cross Section Theory	3
82	June 28, 2014 12:00-13:20	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2	contributed	Poverty, Inequality	4
83	June 28, 2014 13:20-14:40	Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115	poster	Poster: Finance and Econometrics	7
84	June 28, 2014 13:20-14:40	Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115	poster	Poster Session: Applied Micro	10
85	June 28, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	Forecasting in Economics I	4
86	June 28, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Empirical Analysis in Applied Micro	4
87	June 28, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Macro-Finance: DSGE	4
88	June 28, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Output, Output Gap, Revisions	4
89	June 28, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	Female Labor Market	4
90	June 28, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 1.09	contributed	Wages, Earnings and Productivity	4
91	June 28, 2014 14:40-16:00	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Macro-Finance	3
92	June 28, 2014 16:20-17:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.08	contributed	Macro Labor	3
93	June 28, 2014 16:20-17:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1	contributed	Money and Inflation	4
94	June 28, 2014 16:20-17:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6	contributed	Forecasting in Economics II	4
95	June 28, 2014 16:20-17:40	Bancroft building, Room 3.40	contributed	Advances in Applied Micro	4
96	June 28, 2014 16:20-17:40	Bancroft building, Room 3.24	contributed	Macro-Finance: Risk, Credibility, Contagion	4
97	June 28, 2014 16:20-17:40	Bancroft building, Room 3.23	contributed	Welfare: Crime, Education, Family Economics	4
98	June 28, 2014 16:20-17:40	Bancroft building, Room 1.09	contributed	International Migration, Trade, Wages	3

 

98 sessions, 379 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers

IAAE 2014 Annual Conference
Detailed List of Sessions

Session 1: Plenary Session I - JAE Lecture June 26, 2014 9:10 to 10:10 Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: M. Pesaran, University of Southern California
Session type: invited
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inference for Robust Estimators
Presented by: Jean-Marc Robin, Sciences-Po
Session 2: Forecast Uncertainty and Density Forecasts June 26, 2014 10:30 to 11:50 Bancroft building, Room 1.09
Session Chair: James Mitchell, University of Warwick
Session type: contributed
Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast
Presented by: Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany: SUNY
Forecasting Conditional Probabilities of Binary Outcomes under Misspecification
Presented by: Fabian Krüger, Heidelberg Inst. of Theoretical Studies
Density forecasts with MIDAS models
Presented by: Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank
The Recalibrated and Copula Opinion Pools
Presented by: James Mitchell, University of Warwick
Session 3: Recent developments in non-stationary time series June 26, 2014 10:30 to 11:50 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2
Session Chair: Otilia Boldea, Tilburg University
Session type: contributed
Improving the Finite Sample Performance of Tests for a Shift in Mean
Presented by: Eiji Kurozumi, Hitotsubashi University
Optimal Updating for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models
Presented by: Francisco Blasques, VU University Amsterdam
A unified theory for time varying models: foundations with applications in the presence of breaks and heteroscedasticity
Presented by: Menelaos Karanasos, Brunel University
Efficient Inference with Time-Varying Identification Strength
Presented by: Otilia Boldea, Tilburg University
Session 4: Risk, Returns and Term Structure Models June 26, 2014 10:30 to 11:50 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: Fulvio Pegoraro, Banque de France
Session type: contributed
Money market implications of the long run risk models
Presented by: Stefano d'Addona, University of Rome 3
Equilibrium Errors of Volatility and Portfolio Performance
Presented by: Yunus Emre Ergemen, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors
Presented by: Fulvio Pegoraro, Banque de France
Session 5: Theoretical Advances in Panel/Cross Section I June 26, 2014 10:30 to 11:50 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Vadim Marmer, University of British Columbia
Session type: contributed
Neighborhood GMM Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models
Presented by: Vasilis Sarafidis, Monash University
Testing a large number of hypotheses in approximate factor models
Presented by: Dante Amengual, CEMFI
Model Equivalence Tests for Overidentifying Restrictions
Presented by: Pascal Lavergne, Toulouse School of Economics
Efficient Inference in Econometric Models When Identification Can Be Weak
Presented by: Vadim Marmer, University of British Columbia
Session 6: Macro-Finance: Housing Market June 26, 2014 10:30 to 11:50 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California Riverside
Session type: contributed
Regional US housing price formation: One size fits all?
Presented by: Andre Anundsen, Norges Bank
House Price Bubbles and Their Impact on Consumption: Evidence From the US
Presented by: Alina Spiru, Lancaster University Management School
Speculative Bubbles, Financial Crises and Convergence in Global Real Estate Investment Trusts
Presented by: George Milunovich, Macquarie University
Fear and Loathing in the Housing Market: Evidence from Search Query Data
Presented by: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California Riverside
Session 7: Education, Training, and the Labor Market June 26, 2014 10:30 to 11:50 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: Jan Witajewski Baltvilks, European University Institute
Session type: contributed
Adverse effects of increased education efficiency? The impact of shortening high school tenure on graduation age, grade repetitions and graduation rates
Presented by: Mathias Huebener, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research
Education, Professional Choice and Labour Market Outcomes: Influence of Preferences, Parental Background and Labour Market Tightness
Presented by: Natalia Kyui, Bank of Canada
Heterogeneous Effects of Training Incidence and Duration on Labor Market Transitions
Presented by: Aderonke Osikominu, University of Hohenheim
Endogenous Technology Choices and the Wage Inequality Dynamics
Presented by: Jan Witajewski Baltvilks, European University Institute
Session 8: Economic Growth June 26, 2014 10:30 to 11:50 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Katerina Petrova, Queen Mary University London
Session type: contributed
Spells of Growth and Contraction
Presented by: Charalambos Tsangarides, International Monetary Fund
Mixed Frequency Panel Vector Autoregressions and the Inequality vs. Growth Nexus
Presented by: Melanie Krause, Goethe University Frankfurt
Debt, Inflation and Growth Robust Estimation of Long-Run Effects in Dynamic Panel Data Models
Presented by: Mehdi Raissi, IMF
Local Bayesian Estimation and Forecasting with Time -Varying Parameter DSGE Models
Presented by: Katerina Petrova, Queen Mary University London
Session 9: Advances in Applied Cross Section/Panel I June 26, 2014 10:30 to 11:50 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: Chiara Monfardini, University of Bologna
Session type: contributed
New Evidence on Linear Regression and Treatment Effect Heterogeneity
Presented by: Tymon Słoczyński, Warsaw School of Economics
Treatment Effect Analyses through Orthogonality Conditions Implied by a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, with Two Empirical Studies
Presented by: Muzhe Yang, Lehigh University
Static and Dynamic Binary Response Models with Misclassified Dependent Variables Applied to Annuity Ownership
Presented by: Peter van Santen, Sveriges Riksbank
Testing exogeneity of multinomial regressors in count data models: does two stage residual inclusion work?
Presented by: Chiara Monfardini, University of Bologna
Session 10: Macro: Expectation, Indeterminacy June 26, 2014 10:30 to 11:50 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a
Session Chair: Efrem Castelnuovo, University of Padova and University of Milan
Session type: contributed
Inflation Expectation Dynamics: The Role of Past, Present and Forward-Looking Information
Presented by: Paul Hubert, OFCE - Sciences Po
Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation
Presented by: Thomas Lubik, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Animal Spirits, Fundamental Factors and Business Cycle Fluctuations
Presented by: Stephane Dees, European Central Bank
Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identi cation Failures in the U.S.: Results from a Robust Test
Presented by: Efrem Castelnuovo, University of Padova and University of Milan
Session 11: Empirical Applications in Forecasting I June 26, 2014 12:10 to 13:30 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2
Session Chair: Regis Barnichon, CREI
Session type: contributed
Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis
Presented by: Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada
Forecasting Asian Market Returns: Bagging or Combining?
Presented by: Mark Wohar, University of Nebraska-Omaha
What Determines Forecasters' Forecasting Errors?
Presented by: Sandra Nolte, Lancaster University Management School
The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment Across Countries
Presented by: Regis Barnichon, CREI
Session 12: Recent developments in cointegration and persistent time series analysis June 26, 2014 12:10 to 13:30 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Peter Boswijk, University of Amsterdam
Session type: contributed
Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration, and Error Correction Mechanisms
Presented by: Matteo Luciani, Université libre de Bruxelles
Inferring the Predictability Induced by a Persistent Regressor in a Predictive Threshold Model
Presented by: Jean-Yves Pitarakis, University of Southampton
Nonstationarity in Time Series of State Densities
Presented by: Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University
Inference on cointegration parameters in heteroskedastic vector autoregressions
Presented by: Peter Boswijk, University of Amsterdam
Session 13: Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bank Stress Tests Macro and Financial Issues at the Zero Lower Bound June 26, 2014 12:10 to 13:30 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Chiara Scotti, Federal Reserve Board
Session type: contributed
The Breakdown of the Interbank Market during the Financial Crisis: A Network Perspective
Presented by: Celso Brunetti, Federal Reserve Board
Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?
Presented by: Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Stressing Bank Profitability for Interest Rate Risk
Presented by: Rochelle Edge, Federal Reserve Board
Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison
Presented by: Chiara Scotti, Federal Reserve Board
Session 14: Estimation Issues in Finance: Specification Tests, Spurious Inference and Panel Data Models June 26, 2014 12:10 to 13:30 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: L. Vanessa Smith, University of York
Session type: contributed
Spurious factors in linear asset pricing models
Presented by: Svetlana Bryzgalova, London School of Economics
Parameter Estimation and Inference with Spatial Lags and Cointegration
Presented by: Leopold Soegner, Institute for Advanced Studies
The Effect of Fragmentation in Trading on Market Quality in the UK Equity Market
Presented by: Lena Koerber,
A multiple testing approach to the regularisation of sample correlation matrices
Presented by: L. Vanessa Smith, University of York
Session 15: Advances in Semi- and Non-Parametric Econometrics I June 26, 2014 12:10 to 13:30 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, CREST
Session type: contributed
Threshold Estimation in Nonparametric Regression: Estimation and Inference
Presented by: Daniel Henderson, University of Alabama
Assessing functional form specifications for the Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects
Presented by: Graciela Sanroman, UDELAR
Identifying Dynamic Games with Entry/Exit Decisions
Presented by: Sorawoot Srisuma, University of Surrey
Extremal Quantile Regressions for Selection Models and the Black-White Wage Gap
Presented by: Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, CREST
Session 16: Empirical Issues in Applied Micro: Education, Unemployment and the Labor Market June 26, 2014 12:10 to 13:30 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a
Session Chair: Ahmet Ali Taskin, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Session type: contributed
Tuition Fees and Student Achievement - Evidence from a Differential Raise in Fees
Presented by: Hans Fricke, University of St.Gallen
Access and Returns to Education and the Ethnic Earning Gap in France
Presented by: Maxime TO, Sciences Po
The Effects of Dismissal Protection on the Hazard of Remaining Employed
Presented by: Christine Luecke, Otto von Guericke University
Does Homeownership Prolong the Duration of Unemployment?
Presented by: Ahmet Ali Taskin, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Session 17: Macro: Uncertainty and Instability June 26, 2014 12:10 to 13:30 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Kirstin Hubrich, European Central Bank
Session type: contributed
Common Sources of Instabilities in Macroeconomic Dynamics
Presented by: Dalibor Stevanovic, Université du Québec à Montréal
Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective
Presented by: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Bank of England
Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Great Recession
Presented by: Luca Benati, University of Bern
Melting Down: Systemic Financial Instability and the Macroeconomy
Presented by: Kirstin Hubrich, European Central Bank
Session 18: Advances in Treatment Effects June 26, 2014 12:10 to 13:30 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: Ricardo Mora, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Session type: contributed
Bounds on Population Average Treatment Effects with an Invalid Instrument
Presented by: Xuan Chen, Renmin University of China
Relaxing monotonicity in the identification of local average treatment effects
Presented by: Giovanni Mellace, University of Southern Denmark
Estimation of Average Treatment Effects in a Stratified Randomized Design with Imbalance in Covariates
Presented by: Hugo Jales, University of British Columbia
Treatment Effect Identification Using Alternative Parallel Assumptions
Presented by: Ricardo Mora, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Session 19: Poster: Applied Time Series I June 26, 2014 13:30 to 14:50 Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
Session type: poster
Exporting and productivity as part of the growth process: Results from a structural VAR
Presented by: Alessio Moneta, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty
Presented by: Ioannis Chatziantoniou, University of Portsmouth
Asymmetric Gasoline Price Responses to Crude Oil Shocks
Presented by: Jingping Gu, University of Arkansas
Stochastic Convergence in Spanish Provinces
Presented by: antonio montanes, University of Zaragoza
Adaptive Models and Heavy-Tails
Presented by: DAVIDE DELLEMONACHE,
Session 20: Poster: Time Series, Forecasting and Applied Macroeconomics June 26, 2014 13:30 to 14:50 Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
Session type: poster
Estimation and empirical performance of non-scalar dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models}
Presented by: Lyudmila Grigoryeva, Université de Franche-Comté
Growing Together? Projecting Income Growth in Europe at the Regional Level
Presented by: Florian Huber, WU Vienna
The importance of updating: evidence from a Brazilian Now-casting Model
Presented by: Daniela Bragoli, Università Cattolica Milano
Forecasting Labour Market Indicators: Macro vs Micro
Presented by: Chiara Lacava, Tor Vergata University of Rome
Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR
Presented by: Sven Schreiber, Hans Böckler Foundation, and Free U Berlin
Session 21: Poster: Panel/Cross Section Theory June 26, 2014 13:30 to 14:50 Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
Session type: poster
Linear Pseudo Panel Data Models with Multi Factor Error Structure
Presented by: Arturas Juodis, University of Amsterdam
Identifying I(0) Series in Macro-panels: Are Sequential Panel Selection Methods Useful?
Presented by: Mauro Costantini, Brunel University
Local Autonomy and Residents' Well-Being: Evidence from Switzerland
Presented by: Sarah Fleche, Paris School of Economics
Session 22: Poster: Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics June 26, 2014 13:30 to 14:50 Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
Session type: poster
Counting Process Generated by Boundary-crossing Events - Theory and Applications in Non-parametric Statistics
Presented by: Peter Farkas, Central European University
Comparing Distributional Policy Parameters between Populations with Different Outcome Structures
Presented by: Anthony Strittmatter, Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg
A new approach to measuring and studying the characteristics of class membership: The progress of poverty, inequality and polarization of income classes in urban China.
Presented by: Gordon Anderson, Economics department
How do judges judge? Evidence of local effect on French bankruptcy judgments
Presented by: Stéphane ESQUERRE, Université de Strasbourg
Session 23: Macro-finance Models June 26, 2014 14:50 to 16:10 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: István Barra, VU University Amsterdam
Session type: contributed
Learning about Disaster Risk: Joint Implications for Stocks and Bonds
Presented by: Michal Pakos, Center for Economic Research & Graduate Education
Exchange Rate Uncertainty and International Portfolio Flows: A Multivariate GARCH in Mean Approach
Presented by: Faek Menla Ali,
Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World
Presented by: Pinho Ribeiro, University of Glasgow
Unobserved components in corporate defaults and bond prices
Presented by: István Barra, VU University Amsterdam
Session 24: Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy June 26, 2014 14:50 to 16:10 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Fabrizio Venditti, Banca d'Italia
Session type: contributed
Forecasting the Brent Oil Price: Addressing time-variation in forecast performance
Presented by: Cristiana Manescu, European Central Bank
Macroeconomic Drivers of Crude Oil Futures Risk Premia
Presented by: Antonio Diez de los Rios, Bank of Canada
Time Varying SVARs, parameter histories, and the changing impact of oil prices on the US economy
Presented by: Francesca Rondina, University of Ottawa
The time varying effect of oil price shocks on euro area exports
Presented by: Fabrizio Venditti, Banca d'Italia
Session 25: Advances in Spatial Panel Data Model June 26, 2014 14:50 to 16:10 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Lucciano Villacorta, CEMFI
Session type: contributed
Adaptive estimation under pure spatial autoregressive model
Presented by: Jungyoon Lee, New College of the Humanities
Unconditional Transformed Likelihood Estimation of Time-Space Dynamic Panel Data Models
Presented by: Sebastian Kripfganz, Goethe University Frankfurt
Estimation of Networks \& Spillover Effects using Panel Data
Presented by: Christiern Rose, University of Bristol
Robust Standard Errors to spatial and time dependence when neither N nor T are very large
Presented by: Lucciano Villacorta, CEMFI
Session 26: Time Series Methods I (Instability, Trends) June 26, 2014 14:50 to 16:10 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Jesus Gonzalo, U. Carlos III de Madrid
Session type: contributed
Detecting Multiple Structural Breaks: Dummy Saturation vs Sequential Bootstrapping. With an Application to the Fisher E
Presented by: Michele Bergamelli, Cass Business School
Efficient estimation and forecasting in dynamic factor models with structural instability
Presented by: Dimitris Korobilis, University of Glasgow
A Quadratic Kalman Filter
Presented by: Guillaume Roussellet, Banque de France, CREST and CEREMADE
TRENDs in Distributional Characteristics: The case of Global Warming
Presented by: Jesus Gonzalo, U. Carlos III de Madrid
Session 27: Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Multipliers June 26, 2014 14:50 to 16:10 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: Vasja Sivec, EUI Firenze
Session type: contributed
Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S Historical Data
Presented by: Sarah Zubairy, Texas A&M University
Estimating US Fiscal and Monetary Interactions: From Volcker Chairmanship to the Great Recession
Presented by: Klemens Hauzenberger, Deutsche Bundesbank
Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence
Presented by: Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, Federal Reserve Board
Monetary, Fiscal and Oil Shocks: Evidence based on Mixed Frequency Structural FAVARs
Presented by: Vasja Sivec, EUI Firenze
Session 28: Health Economics I June 26, 2014 14:50 to 16:10 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a
Session Chair: Meliyanni Johar, University of Technology Sydney
Session type: contributed
Does Religion Affect Health?Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Implications of Religious Beliefs on Smoking from the German Separation
Presented by: Veronica Toffolutti, University of East Anglia
Pot Calling the Kettle Black? A Comparison of Measures of Current Smoking Status
Presented by: Vidhura Tennekoon, University of Oklahoma
Forecasting with micro panels: The case of health care costs
Presented by: Meliyanni Johar, University of Technology Sydney
Session 29: Business Cycles June 26, 2014 14:50 to 16:10 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: Christopher Otrok, University of Missouri
Session type: contributed
Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models
Presented by: Joerg Breitung, University of Cologne
A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases
Presented by: Danilo Leiva-Leon, Bank of Canada
The International Transmission of U.S. Structural Shocks - Evidence from Global Vector Autoregressions
Presented by: Martin Feldkircher, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
How do Business Cycles Become Global? Common Shocks or Spillovers?
Presented by: Christopher Otrok, University of Missouri
Session 30: Macro-Finance: Banks, Risk, Credit June 26, 2014 14:50 to 16:10 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2
Session Chair: Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Session type: contributed
Bank Bailouts and Bank-Sovereign Risk Contagion Channels
Presented by: Irina Stanga, Economics Econometrics and Finance
Monetary policy, bank bailouts and the sovereign-bank risk nexus in the euro area
Presented by: Malte Rieth, DIW Berlin
Aggregate Shocks and the Two Sides of Credit Reallocation
Presented by: Silvio Contessi, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income
Presented by: Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Session 31: Applied Panel/Cross Section: Missing Values, Attrition, Misreporting June 26, 2014 14:50 to 16:10 Bancroft building, Room 1.09
Session Chair: Pravin Trivedi, Indiana University
Session type: contributed
Dissatisfied with Life or with Being Interviewed? Happiness and Motivation to Participate in a Survey
Presented by: Adrian Chadi, IAAEU
A Method of Correcting for Misreporting Applied to the Food Stamp Program
Presented by: Nikolas Mittag, CERGE-EI, Charles University
Missing Values: An Econometric Evaluation
Presented by: Alvaro Escribano, UNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III de MADRID
Attrition Bias in Panel Data: A Sheep in Wolf's Clothing? A Case Study Based on the MABEL Survey
Presented by: Pravin Trivedi, Indiana University
Session 32: Plenary Session II June 26, 2014 16:30 to 17:30 Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Siem Jan Koopman, VU University Amsterdam
Session type: invited
Sign Restriction, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information
Presented by: James Hamilton, University of California, San Diego
Session 33: Plenary Session III June 27, 2014 9:00 to 10:00 Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Badi Baltagi, Syracuse University
Session type: invited
Model Selection with `Big Data'
Presented by: David Hendry, Oxford University
Session 34: Forecasting and Time Variation June 27, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Herman van Dijk, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Session type: contributed
No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Presented by: Andrea Carriero, Queen Mary Univerity of London
Forecast Optimality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities
Presented by: Barbara Rossi, ICREA-Univ. Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE
Optimal forecasts from Markov switching models
Presented by: Andreas Pick, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)
Nowcasting the Business Cycle in an Uncertain Environment
Presented by: Herman van Dijk, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Session 35: Banking and Finance June 27, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: Eva Arnold, Universität Hamburg
Session type: contributed
A New Test of Financial Contagion with Application to the US Banking Sector
Presented by: Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao, The University of New South Wales
Assessing Bank Efficiency and Stability
Presented by: Konstantinos Baltas, Queen Mary University of London
Which Hedge Fund Styles Hedge Against Bad Times?
Presented by: David Rapach, Saint Louis University
Do German Depositors Discipline their Banks? Empirical Evidence for Different Bank Governance Models
Presented by: Eva Arnold, Universität Hamburg
Session 36: Advances in Semi- and Non-Parametric Econometrics II June 27, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: Juan Rodriguez-Poo, Universidad de Cantabria
Session type: contributed
Sharp Bounds in the Binary Roy model
Presented by: Ismael MOURIFIÉ, University of Toronto
Risk forecasting in (T)GARCH models with uncorrelated dependent innovations
Presented by: Benjamin Beckers, DIW Berlin
Econometrics of Ascending Auctions by Quantile Regression
Presented by: Nathalie Sanches, University of Sao Paulo
Precautionary Savings over the Life Cycle: A Simple Two Step Locally Constant Least Squares Estimator
Presented by: Juan Rodriguez-Poo, Universidad de Cantabria
Session 37: Health Economics II June 27, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a
Session Chair: Lea Toulemon, Sciences Po Paris
Session type: contributed
A matter of life and death? Hospital distance and quality of care: Evidence from emergency room closures and myocardial infarctions
Presented by: Daniel Avdic, CINCH and University of Duisburg-Essen
The Fatal Consequences of Grief - Semiparametric Estimation of Bereavement Effects on Parents' Mortality
Presented by: Bernhard Schmidpeter, Johannes Kepler University Linz
Diesel Cars and Environmental Policy
Presented by: Anders Munk-Nielsen, University of Copenhagen
The impact of increasing public reimbursement rates on various aspects of health expenditures. A natural experiment.
Presented by: Lea Toulemon, Sciences Po Paris
Session 38: Time Series Methods II (Model Estimation) June 27, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Claudia Foroni, Norges Bank
Session type: contributed
A Frequency-Specific Factorization to Identify Commonalities with an Application to the European Bond Markets
Presented by: Jan Novotny, City University London
Do Downgrades Supply New Information to the European Sovereign Credit Default Swaps Markets A Probit-MIDAS Analysis
Presented by: Lennart Freitag, Maastricht Univeristy, SBE
Autoregressive Models with Optimal Autoregressive Dependence
Presented by: Siem Jan Koopman, VU University Amsterdam
Mixed Frequency Structural VARs
Presented by: Claudia Foroni, Norges Bank
Session 39: International Macro June 27, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2
Session Chair: Hilde Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School
Session type: contributed
What drives EMU current accounts? A time varying structural VAR approach
Presented by: Maximilian Podstawski, DIW Berlin
Assessing Interdependence Among Countries' Fundamentals and its Implications for Exchange Rate Misalignment Estimates: An Empirical Exercise Based on GVAR
Presented by: Emerson Marçal, CEMAP-EESP-FGV and CSSA-Mackenzie
Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy
Presented by: Hilde Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School
Session 40: Macro: Theoretical VAR June 27, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Atsushi Inoue, Southern Methodist University
Session type: contributed
Towards Understanding the Normalization in Structural VAR Models
Presented by: Andrzej Kociecki, National Bank of Poland
Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithms for the Estimation of VAR Models
Presented by: Mark Bognanni, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
VARs with Fat Tails
Presented by: Haroon Mumtaz, Queen Mary College University of London
Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses
Presented by: Atsushi Inoue, Southern Methodist University
Session 41: Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt June 27, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: Martina Jancokova, Goethe University Frankfurt
Session type: contributed
Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Threshold Regressions
Presented by: Christian Schoder, Vienna University of Economics and Business
How do Financial Institutions Forecast Sovereign Spreads?
Presented by: Peter Claeys, Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Measuring Global Financial Connectedness
Presented by: Soroosh Soofi Siavash, Goethe University Frankfurt
Linking Distress of Financial Institutions to Macrofinancial Shocks
Presented by: Martina Jancokova, Goethe University Frankfurt
Session 42: Advances in Applied Cross Section/Panel II June 27, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.09
Session Chair: Natalia Bailey, Queen Mary, University of London
Session type: contributed
Structural Threshold Regression
Presented by: Andros Kourtellos, University of Cyprus
Some estimators for dynamic panel data sample selection models
Presented by: Sergi Jimenez-Martin, Pompeu Fabra University
Putting Time into Space: Expectations and Causality Issues in the Price Determination Process
Presented by: Jean Dube, Universite du Quebec a Rimouski
A Two Stage Approach to Spatiotemporal Analysis with Strong and Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence
Presented by: Natalia Bailey, Queen Mary, University of London
Session 43: Special Issues in Forecasting: large datasets, mixed frequency data, and conditional forecasts June 27, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Tatevik Sekhposyan, Texas A&M University
Session type: contributed
Evaluating Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions Conditional on Policy Paths
Presented by: Michael McCracken, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Forecasting Fed Funds Target Changes with Large Datasets
Presented by: Michael Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Forecasting the distribution of economic variables in a data-rich environment
Presented by: Sebastiano Manzan, Baruch College, CUNY
Real-Time Forecasting with a Large, Mixed Frequency, Bayesian VAR
Presented by: Tatevik Sekhposyan, Texas A&M University
Session 44: Theoretical Advances in Panel/Cross Sections II June 27, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Badi Baltagi, Syracuse University
Session type: contributed
An Exponential Class of Dynamic Binary Choice Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects
Presented by: Majid Al Sadoon, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
A Nonlinear Least Squares Approach to Estimating Fixed E¤ects Panel Data Models with Lagged Dependent Variables, with Applications to the Incidental Parameters Problem
Presented by: Maxim Pinkovskiy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Test of Hypotheses in a Time Trend Panel Data Model with Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances
Presented by: Badi Baltagi, Syracuse University
Session 45: Markets, Competition and Regulation June 27, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: Christian Bontemps, Toulouse School of Economics
Session type: contributed
Identifying Collusion in English Auctions
Presented by: Vadim Marmer, University of British Columbia
Marijuana on Main Street? Estimating Demand in Markets with Limited Access
Presented by: Liana Jacobi, University of Melbourne
Analysis of Multiple Discrete-Continuous Choices: Empirical Evidence of Biased Price Elasticities under Standard Discrete Choice Models on the Soft Drink Market
Presented by: Olivier de Mouzon, Toulouse School of Economics
Identification and Estimation of Incentive Contracts under Asymmetric Information: An Application to the French Water Sector
Presented by: Christian Bontemps, Toulouse School of Economics
Session 46: Great Recession, Great Moderation June 27, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Gabriel Perez Quiros, Bank of Spain
Session type: contributed
The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation
Presented by: Lola Gadea, Applied Economics
Kiss Me Deadly. From Finnish Great Depression to Great Recession
Presented by: Adam Gulan, Bank of Finland
Cross-Country Interactions, the Great Moderation and the Role of Volatility in Economic Activity
Presented by: Steven Trypsteen, University of Nottingham
The failure to predict the Great Recession.A view through the role of credit
Presented by: Gabriel Perez Quiros, Bank of Spain
Session 47: Monetary Policy I June 27, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: Tatjana Dahlhaus, Bank of Canada
Session type: contributed
Corporate Bond Yields in the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy
Presented by: Isaac Sserwanja, University of Kent
Cross sectional evidence on the relation between monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions and low-frequency inflation uncertainty
Presented by: Matthias Hartmann, University of Heidelberg
Drifts, Volatilities and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century
Presented by: Pooyan Amir Ahmadi, Goethe University
International Transmission Channels of US Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada
Presented by: Tatjana Dahlhaus, Bank of Canada
Session 48: Labor Market, Inequality June 27, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.09
Session Chair: Dmytro Hryshko, University of Alberta
Session type: contributed
Time preferences stability, financial and working status
Presented by: Caterina Giannetti, University of Bologna
Who Creates Jobs? Estimating Job Creation Rates at the Firm Level
Presented by: Harald Oberhofer, University of Salzburg
Wage earnings volatility in the private sector in France since 1968
Presented by: Nila Ceci-Renaud, Crest
Reconciling Estimates of Earnings Processes in Growth Rates and Levels
Presented by: Dmytro Hryshko, University of Alberta
Session 49: International Economics June 27, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: Frank Agbola, The University of Newcastle, Australia
Session type: contributed
Foreign Direct Investment’s Effect on Institutions
Presented by: Chander Kant, Seton Hall University
Foreign aid and domestic absorption
Presented by: Nicolas Van de Sijpe, University of Oxford
GRAViTY
Presented by: Markus Eberhardt, University of Nottingham
Does foreign direct investment enhance productivity growth in a transition economy? empirical evidence from China
Presented by: Frank Agbola, The University of Newcastle, Australia
Session 50: Politics, Institutions June 27, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2
Session Chair: Frode Martin Nordvik, BI Norwegian Business School
Session type: contributed
Invisible Wall. The Role of Culture in Long-Term Development
Presented by: Agnieszka Wysokińska, University of Warsaw
Electoral cycles in savings bank lending
Presented by: Till Stowasser, University of Munich
Using political financing reforms to measure the impact of campaign spending on French legislative election outcomes
Presented by: Lionel Wilner, INSEE-CREST
Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coup d'etat?
Presented by: Frode Martin Nordvik, BI Norwegian Business School
Session 51: Applied Cross Section/Panel: Regional and Local Impact June 27, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a
Session Chair: Riccardo Trezzi, University of Cambridge
Session type: contributed
Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?
Presented by: Rafael González-Val, Universidad de Zaragoza & Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB)
Are State Corporate Income Tax Rates Too High? A Panel Study of Statewide Laffer Curves
Presented by: John Stinespring, University of Tampa
Green-to-Grey China: Determinants and Forecasts of Its Green Growth
Presented by: Jing You, Renmin University of China
Shake me the money!
Presented by: Riccardo Trezzi, University of Cambridge
Session 52: Poster: Empirical Macro June 27, 2014 13:20 to 14:40 Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
Session type: poster
Progressive Taxation and Precautionary Savings over the Life-Cycle
Presented by: Davud Rostam-Afschar, Freie Universität Berlin
Financial sector development (FSD), institutions and economic growth: A comparative study of Southern Africa Development Community and Economic Community of West Africa States
Presented by: Mahawiya Sulemana, University of Cape Town
Instability of the inflation-output trade-off and time-varying price rigidity
Presented by: Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio, University of Paris North
Session 53: Poster: Applied Cross Section/Panel June 27, 2014 13:20 to 14:40 Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
Session type: poster
Benefits from taking a private tutorial course for exam preparation? The case of Macro Economics at Copenhagen Business School.
Presented by: Lisbeth la Cour, Copenhagen Business School
Local Interactions, Interdependent Hazards, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants
Presented by: Christian Schluter, Aix-Marseille Université
Retail Payment Innovations and Cash Usage: Accounting for Attrition Using Refreshment Samples
Presented by: Marie-Helene Felt, Carleton University
Short-term and long-term child health: Is there an association and what are the implications for targeting the food insecure?
Presented by: Miriam Marembo, Monash University
Who Are the Major Drivers behind Stock Price Movements? Company Accounting Fundamentals vs. Common Shocks
Presented by: Xiaohui Zhang, Murdoch University
The Effectiveness of Incentives to Postpone Retirement: an Evaluation of the Italian “Super-Bonus” Reform
Presented by: Irene Ferrari, University of Bologna
Explaining Gender Grade Differentials: Evidence From Germany
Presented by: Bernhard Enzi, ifo Institute for Economic Research
Trade Liberalization and the Balance of payments in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pooled Mean Group approach
Presented by: Lanre Kassim, University of kent
Student Biases for Male Professors and What Female Professors Can Do About It
Presented by: Anne Boring,
Session 54: Poster: Applied Time Series II June 27, 2014 13:20 to 14:40 Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
Session type: poster
The co-movement of house price and GDP in G7 countries
Presented by: Jae Ho Yoon, POSCO Research Institute
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: A Balanced Two–Country Cointegrated VAR Model Approach
Presented by: Reinhold Heinlein, Keele University
Regional Danish housing booms and the effects of financial deregulation and expansionary economic policy
Presented by: Christian Heebøll, Kraka
Power transformations of absolute returns and long memory estimation
Presented by: Violetta Dalla,
Improving test power for neglected nonlinearities in time series models: radial basis function neural networks approximations
Presented by: Jinu Lee,
Session 55: Estimation and Testing June 27, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Majid Al Sadoon, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Session type: contributed
Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Generalized Autoregressive Score Models
Presented by: Andre Lucas, VU University Amsterdam
Regime-Switching Lévy Jump Modelling for Financial and Commodity Markets
Presented by: Julien Chevallier, IPAG Business School
A General Theory of Rank Testing
Presented by: Majid Al Sadoon, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Session 56: DSGE Models: Identification and Estimation June 27, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Alessia Paccagnini, Bicocca University
Session type: contributed
Macroeconomic persistence and identification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve
Presented by: Tord Krogh, Statistics Norway
Global identification of linearized DSGE models
Presented by: Marcin Kolasa, Narodowy Bank Polski and Warsaw School of Economics
Likelihood Based Estimation and Inference for Unsolved DSGE Models
Presented by: Andreas Tryphonides, European University Institute
The Statistical Representation of the DSGE Model: A MonteCarlo Experiment
Presented by: Alessia Paccagnini, Bicocca University
Session 57: Asset Price Jumps June 27, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Valentina Corradi, University of Surrey
Session type: contributed
Bootstrapping high frequency jump tests
Presented by: Silvia Goncalves, Université de Montréal
Inference on Self-Exciting Jumps in Prices and Volatility using High Frequency Measures
Presented by: Gael Martin, Monash University
Jumps in option prices and their determinants: Real-time evidence from the E-mini S&P 500 option market
Presented by: Michael Neumann, Queen Mary, University of London
Testing for Jumps and for Path Dependent Intensity over Long Time Spans
Presented by: Valentina Corradi, University of Surrey
Session 58: Advances in Semi- and Non-Parametric Econometrics III June 27, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: Debopam Bhattacharya, University of Oxford
Session type: contributed
Nonparametric estimation of systems of simultaneous equations with sample selection
Presented by: Evgeniy Ozhegov, National Research University Higher School of Economics
Identi fication of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models with a Residual Index Structure
Presented by: Philip Haile, Yale University
A cautionary tale about control variables in IV estimation
Presented by: Martin Huber, University of St. Gallen
Nonparametric Welfare Analysis for Discrete Choice
Presented by: Debopam Bhattacharya, University of Oxford
Session 59: Life-cycle Models June 27, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: Thomas Jørgensen, University of Copenhagen
Session type: contributed
Heterogeneous returns over the life-cycle? Or nothing at all? Re-examining the wage returns to education in the UK
Presented by: Matt Dickson, University of Bath
Bequest motives in a life-cycle model with intergenerational interactions
Presented by: Fedor Iskhakov, University of New South Wales
Welfare Dynamics Measurement: Two Definitions of a Vulnerability Line and Their Applications
Presented by: Hai-Anh Dang, World Bank
Life-Cycle Consumption and Children
Presented by: Thomas Jørgensen, University of Copenhagen
Session 60: Macro-Finance: Exchange Rate, Emerging Economies June 27, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: Taya Dumrongrittikul, Australian National University
Session type: contributed
A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle in Chile: An I(2) Cointegrated VAR Application
Presented by: Leonardo Salazar, University of Copenhagen
A dynamic econometric system for the Yen-Dollar rate
Presented by: Katsuhiko Takagaki, Waseda University / University of Oxford
Estimating macro-financial linkages in Asia
Presented by: Feng Zhu, Bank for International Settlements
The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Vector Autoregressive Framework
Presented by: Taya Dumrongrittikul, Australian National University
Session 61: Monetary Policy II June 27, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.09
Session Chair: John Keating, University of Kansas
Session type: contributed
Monetary Policy Shocks and the Taylor Rule
Presented by: Pao-Lin Tien, Wesleyan University
Do Estimated Taylor Rules Suffer from Weak Identification?
Presented by: Juan Urquiza, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
Parametric Estimates of the (Non-Linear) Effect of Policy: The Case of Monetary Shocks
Presented by: Christian Matthes, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions
Presented by: John Keating, University of Kansas
Session 62: Fiscal Policy June 27, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2
Session Chair: Fabrizio Zampolli, Bank for International Settlements
Session type: contributed
A New Identification Of Fiscal Shocks Based On The Information Flow
Presented by: Giovanni Ricco, London Business School
Cost of Borrowing Shocks and Fiscal Adjustment
Presented by: Oliver de Groot, Federal Reserve Board
How large (and state-dependent) are the effects of fiscal consolidation?
Presented by: Fabrizio Zampolli, Bank for International Settlements
Session 63: Time Series Methods III June 27, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a
Session Chair: Annastiina Silvennoinen, Queensland University of Technology
Session type: contributed
The Dynamic Skellam Model with Applications
Presented by: Rutger Lit, VU University Amsterdam
Generalized Autoregressive Method of Moments
Presented by: Marcin Zamojski, VU University Amsterdam
A Smooth Transition Logit Model of the Duration of Irregular Price Events in Electricity Markets
Presented by: Annastiina Silvennoinen, Queensland University of Technology
Session 64: Plenary Session IV June 27, 2014 16:20 to 17:20 Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Barbara Rossi, ICREA-Univ. Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE
Session type: invited
Disentangle the Impact of Multiple Treatments-Measuring the Hashin-Awaiji Earthquake and Structural Change Effects in Kobe, Japan
Presented by: Cheng Hsiao, University of Southern California
Session 65: Plenary Session V June 28, 2014 9:00 to 10:00 Bancroft building, Mason Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California Riverside
Session type: invited
Multidimensional Unobservables in Nonseparable Models
Presented by: Rosa Matzkin, UCLA
Session 66: Empirical Applications in Forecasting II June 28, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: alessandro barbarino, Federal Reserve Board
Session type: contributed
(When) Do Long Autoregressions Account for Changes in Parameters?
Presented by: Matei Demetrescu, University of Kiel
Estimation and Forecasting of Large Realized Covariance Matrices
Presented by: Laurent Callot, VU Amsteram
Microfounded Forecasting
Presented by: Wagner Gaglianone, Central Bank of Brazil
Sufficient Dimension Reduction for Dynamic Factor Models
Presented by: alessandro barbarino, Federal Reserve Board
Session 67: RastaNews Special Session on Macro-Financial Risk June 28, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Claudio Morana, Department of Economics
Session type: contributed
Measuring Persistence in Volatility Spillovers
Presented by: Christian Conrad, University of Heidelberg
Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approach
Presented by: Stavroula Yfanti, Brunel University
Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: A complete subset quantile regression approach
Presented by: Ekaterini Panopoulou, University of Kent
Insights on the global macro-finance interface: Structural sources of risk factors fluctuations and the cross-section of expected stock returns
Presented by: Claudio Morana, Department of Economics
Session 68: Studies on the Indian Economy June 28, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.09
Session Chair: Abdoul Sam, The Ohio State University
Session type: contributed
Explaining the Penetration of MFIs among Indian States using the State Level Macro Variables
Presented by: Sushanta Mahapatra, Amrita School of Business
Finance-Growth Nexus in India: Some Estimations from Co-integration & VECM
Presented by: Mahendra Pal, University of Delhi
Global food price dynamics and business cycles in an open-economy macroeconomic model for India
Presented by: Sushanta Mallick, Queen Mary University of London
Heterogeneous Effects of Maternal Labor Market Participation on Nutritional Status of Children: Empirical Evidence From Rural India
Presented by: Abdoul Sam, The Ohio State University
Session 69: Issues in Labor Markets June 28, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: Nina Hestermann, Toulouse School of Economics
Session type: contributed
Entrepreneurship in an Equilibrium Model of the Labor Market
Presented by: Jake Bradley, University of Bristol
Product and labor market imperfections and scale economies: Micro-evidence on France, Japan and the Netherlands
Presented by: Kozo Kiyota, Keio University
Undeclared Work in a Flexible Labour Market
Presented by: Leandro Elia, European Commission
Believe in a Just Wage? Personality and Human Capital Investment
Presented by: Nina Hestermann, Toulouse School of Economics
Session 70: Time Series Methods IV (Dependence Networks) June 28, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Filip Zikes, Bank of England
Session type: contributed
Macroeconomic determinants of time-varying persistence in the S&P500 price-dividend ratio
Presented by: Robinson Kruse, CREATES, Aarhus University
Asset Prices Interdependence and Portfolio Channels
Presented by: cindy shin-huei wang, CORE and NTHU
Fractional Integration of Expected Returns in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices
Presented by: Dooruj Rambaccussing, University of Dundee
Estimating the dynamics and persistence of financial networks, with an application to the sterling money market
Presented by: Filip Zikes, Bank of England
Session 71: Monetary Policy III June 28, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Robin Lumsdaine, Kogod School of Business, American University
Session type: contributed
Testing for Expectation Hypothesis in the US Repo Market: the Role of Cointegration and Structural Changes
Presented by: Vanessa Gunnella, University of Bologna
macroeconomic news, monetary policy and the real interest rate at the zero lower bound
Presented by: JI ZHANG, Tsinghua Unviersity
Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Rate Decisions
Presented by: Robin Lumsdaine, Kogod School of Business, American University
Session 72: Advances in Finance June 28, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: Guilherme Moura, UFSC
Session type: contributed
How fat is the tail of the wealth distribution?
Presented by: Philip Vermeulen, ECB
Anticipatory effects in the FTSE 100 index revisions
Presented by: João Mergulhão, FGV
Infinite-State Markov-switching for Dynamic Volatility and Correlation Models
Presented by: Arnaud Dufays, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique
Bond Portfolio Management Using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model
Presented by: Guilherme Moura, UFSC
Session 73: Education June 28, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2
Session Chair: Cristina Lopez-Mayan, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Session type: contributed
Decentralization of public education in Colombia: Evidence from an RD design.
Presented by: Zelda Brutti, European University Institute
A closer look at the effects of within-school ability grouping in secondary schools: how are different performers affected?
Presented by: Anna-Elisabeth Thum, European Commission
The Effect of Advising Students at College Entrance
Presented by: Nicolas Pistolesi, Toulouse School of Economics
Teaching practices and student achievement
Presented by: Cristina Lopez-Mayan, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Session 74: Production Function, Public Goods June 28, 2014 10:20 to 11:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6a
Session Chair: Larissa Weidert, University of Heidelberg
Session type: contributed
Endogenous Network Production Functions with Selectivity
Presented by: William Horrace, Syracuse University
How do firms adjust production factors to the cycle? The role of rigidities
Presented by: Rémy Lecat, Banque de France
Estimating Economic Efficiencies of Public Sector Organisations with Stochastic Frontier Analysis: Evidence from Turkish Higher Education
Presented by: Taptuk Erkoc, Queen Mary, University of London
Do government subsidies for impure public goods crowd out private donations? The case of zoos in Germany
Presented by: Larissa Weidert, University of Heidelberg
Session 75: Advances in Macroeconomic Models' Design, Identification, Time Variation and Estimation June 28, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Hans-Martin Krolzig, The University of Kent
Session type: contributed
Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New-Keynesian Models: A Reconsideration
Presented by: Hess Chung, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Identification in Structural VAR models with different volatility regimes
Presented by: Emanuele Bacchiocchi, University of Milan
Asymmetries and Markov-Switching Structural VAR
Presented by: Frederic Karamé, Université du Maine
Symmetry and Separability in Two–Country Cointegrated VAR Models: Representation and Testing
Presented by: Hans-Martin Krolzig, The University of Kent
Session 76: Wages and the Labor Market June 28, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: Marco Taboga, Banca d'italia
Session type: contributed
Job Dispersion and Compensating Wage Differentials
Presented by: Ted To, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Wage and Competition Effects of FDI on Entrepreneurship, Evidence from the Netherlands
Presented by: Marzieh Abolhassani, Radboud university Nijmegen
Bounds on Treatment Effects in the Presence of Sample Selection and Noncompliance: The Wage Effects of Job Corps
Presented by: Xuan Chen, Renmin University of China
Sectoral differences in managers’' compensation: insights from a matching model
Presented by: Marco Taboga, Banca d'italia
Session 77: Time Series Methods V (Regime Switching) June 28, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Marco Bazzi, University of Padua
Session type: contributed
Selection criteria in regime switching conditional volatility models
Presented by: Thomas Chuffart, Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS
Multivariate Regime Switching Model with Flexible Threshold Variable: With an Application to Returns from a Portfolio of U.S. Stocks
Presented by: Daniele Massacci, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
A Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Yield Curve Model with Markov Switching
Presented by: Jared Levant, University of Alabama
Time-Varying Transiiton Probabilities Based on Predictive Likelihood Scores in Markov Switching Models
Presented by: Marco Bazzi, University of Padua
Session 78: Financial Crises, Contagion, Risk June 28, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: Julia Schaumburg, VU University Amsterdam
Session type: contributed
No Contagion, Only Interdependence: New Insights from Stock Market Comovements by Wavelet Analysis
Presented by: Wenlong Lai, University of Leicester
Detecting financial contagion in a multivariate system
Presented by: Dominik Blatt, Maastricht University
Common Correlated Effects and International Risk Sharing
Presented by: Peter Fuleky, University of Hawaii
Spillover Dynamics for Systemic Risk Measurement Using Spatial Financial Time Series Models
Presented by: Julia Schaumburg, VU University Amsterdam
Session 79: Finance: Equity Prices, Volatility June 28, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.09
Session Chair: Paula Tofoli, Catholic University of Brasilia
Session type: contributed
Chasing volatility: a persistent multiplicative error model with jumps
Presented by: Paolo Santucci de Magistri, CREATES - University of Aarhus
Modeling Asymmetric Volatility Clusters with Copulas and High Frequency Data
Presented by: Cathy Ning, Ryerson University
Dynamic D-Vine Copula Model with Applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)
Presented by: Paula Tofoli, Catholic University of Brasilia
Session 80: Uncertainty, Inflation, Interest Rates June 28, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: Andrei Sirchenko, National Research University - Higher School of Economics
Session type: contributed
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters
Presented by: Rodrigo Sekkel, Bank of Canada
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error. A Proxy SVAR approach
Presented by: Angeliki Theophilopoulou, University of Westminster
Conditional term structure of the Canadian inflation forecast uncertainties: the copula approach
Presented by: Carlos Diaz, University of Leicester
A cross-nested ordered probit model with an application to policy interest rate
Presented by: Andrei Sirchenko, National Research University - Higher School of Economics
Session 81: Advances in Panel/Cross Section Theory June 28, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Cavit Pakel, Bilkent University
Session type: contributed
Dynamic Panels with MIDAS Covariates: Estimation and Fit
Presented by: Marcel Voia, Carleton University
Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Cross-Sections
Presented by: Hai-Anh Dang, World Bank
Bias Reduction in Nonlinear and Dynamic Panels in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence, with a GARCH Panel Application
Presented by: Cavit Pakel, Bilkent University
Session 82: Poverty, Inequality June 28, 2014 12:00 to 13:20 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.2
Session Chair: Richard Bluhm, Maastricht University
Session type: contributed
Inequality and household debt: a panel cointegration analysis
Presented by: Mathias Klein, Ruhr Graduate School in Economics
Interrelationship between Poverty, growth and inequality in India : A spatial approach
Presented by: Sandip Sarkar, Indian Statistical Institute
The Role of CPS Nonresponse on the Level and Trend in Poverty
Presented by: James Ziliak, University of Kentucky
The pace of poverty reduction: A fractional response approach
Presented by: Richard Bluhm, Maastricht University
Session 83: Poster: Finance and Econometrics June 28, 2014 13:20 to 14:40 Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
Session type: poster
Testing for Leverage Effect in Financial Returns
Presented by: Florian Ielpo, Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie,
Stock return predictability and persistence in the price-to-dividend ratio
Presented by: fang Xu, Department of Economics
A Smooth SEM Approach to Measure Contagion in International Markets
Presented by: Anjeza Kadilli, University of Geneva
A Mixture Model for Stock Prices
Presented by: Bo Zhou, University of Southern California
The economic drivers of commodity market volatility
Presented by: Lazaros Symeonidis, University of Stirling
Downside Volatility Timing
Presented by: Qi Xu, University of Warwick
Recursive estimation and the downdating of the simultaneous equations model
Presented by: Stella Hadjiantoni, Queen Mary University of London
Session 84: Poster Session: Applied Micro June 28, 2014 13:20 to 14:40 Bancroft building, Rooms 113/113a/115
Session type: poster
The effect of stolen goods markets on crime: evidence from a quasi - natural experiment
Presented by: Rocco D'Este, Warwick University
Private schools, autonomy and efficiency - Evidence from France
Presented by: Alexis Le Chapelain, Sciences Po Paris
Measuring the Effects of Search Costs on Equilibrium Prices and Profits
Presented by: Tiago Pires, University of North Carolina
Employment Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions: A Continuous Treatment Approach
Presented by: Benjamin Furlan, University of Salzburg
Labor supply of disabled people with endogenous choice of type of job.
Presented by: Patricia Moreno-Mencía, Universidad de Cantabria
A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Public Employment Service in Peru
Presented by: Celia Vera, Zirve University
Does attending an elite school improve students achievement ? Evidence from Tunisia
Presented by: Meryam Zaiem, CREST-EHESS
The Lost Generation in Europe? - the Economic Crisis and Starting a Family
Presented by: Sandra Schaffner, RWI
The Freedom of Others: On Behavioral Responses to Mass-Releases from Prisons in the German Democratic Republic (East Germany)
Presented by: Alexandra Avdeenko, German Institute for Economic Research
Sending the Pork Home: Birth Town Bias in Transfers to Italian Municipalities
Presented by: Luca Repetto, CEMFI
Session 85: Forecasting in Economics I June 28, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Justinas Pelenis, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
Session type: contributed
Dimension Reduction in Large Time-Varying VARs: The DFM-VAR Model
Presented by: Stefano Grassi, University of Kent
Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information?
Presented by: Spyridon Vrontos, University of Westminster
Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting
Presented by: Remco Zwinkels, Erasmus School of Economics
Weighted Scoring Rules for Density Forecast Comparison in Subsets of Interest
Presented by: Justinas Pelenis, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
Session 86: Empirical Analysis in Applied Micro June 28, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: Fabian GOURET, Université de Cergy-Pontoise
Session type: contributed
Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth
Presented by: Frederik Toscani, University of Cambridge
The Unintended Consequences of Uncoordinated Regulation: Evidence from the Transportation Sector
Presented by: Kevin Roth, University of California, Irvine
Pro-social behavior, Heterogeneity and Incentives: Experimental evidence from the local commons in Colombia
Presented by: David Echeverry, University of California Berkeley
What can we learn from the fifties?
Presented by: Fabian GOURET, Université de Cergy-Pontoise
Session 87: Macro-Finance: DSGE June 28, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Venoo Kakar, San Francisco State University
Session type: contributed
An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State: An Application to the Japanese Economy
Presented by: Yasuo Hirose, Keio University
Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models using Macro and Financial Data
Presented by: Michel van der Wel, Erasmus University Rotterdam
The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system
Presented by: Boris Blagov, University of Hamburg
Financial Instability and Monetary Policy
Presented by: Venoo Kakar, San Francisco State University
Session 88: Output, Output Gap, Revisions June 28, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Anthony Garratt, University of Warwick
Session type: contributed
Modeling Multivariate Data Revisions
Presented by: Samad Sarferaz, ETH Zurich
The Reliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Realtime
Presented by: Elmar Mertens, Federal Reserve Board
A latent variable approach to derive consensus GDPs
Presented by: Paul Hofmarcher, JKU Linz
Measuring the Natural Output Gap using Actual and Expected Output Data
Presented by: Anthony Garratt, University of Warwick
Session 89: Female Labor Market June 28, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: Agnieszka Gehringer, University of Goettingen
Session type: contributed
Dynamic labor market behavior of married women with endogenous participation, unemployment, working time and wage
Presented by: Thierry Kamionka, CNRS
Neighborhood Effects and Female Labor Supply
Presented by: Lea Eilers, RWI Essen
Bayesian Treatment Effects Models with Variable Selection for Panel Outcomes with an Application to Earnings Effects of Maternity Leave
Presented by: Helga Wagner, Johannes Kepler University Austria
Labour force participation of women in the EU – What role do family policies play?
Presented by: Agnieszka Gehringer, University of Goettingen
Session 90: Wages, Earnings and Productivity June 28, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 1.09
Session Chair: Hugo Jales, University of British Columbia
Session type: contributed
Life-cycle wage profiles and pension accumulation; estimating a panel data sample selection model with part-time employment for the Netherlands
Presented by: Jim Been, Leiden University & Netspar
The British Low-Wage Sector and the Employment Prospects of the Unemployed
Presented by: Alexander Plum, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg
Allocation of human capital and innovation at the frontier: Firm-level evidence on Germany and the Netherlands
Presented by: Sabien Dobbelaere, VU University Amsterdam
Estimating the Effects of Minimum Wage in a Developing Country: A Density Discontinuity Design Approach
Presented by: Hugo Jales, University of British Columbia
Session 91: Macro-Finance June 28, 2014 14:40 to 16:00 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: Rachel Pownall, Maastricht University
Session type: contributed
The Risk-Return relation in Up and Down Market Conditions in the Framework of Bivariate GARCH-in-Mean Model
Presented by: Srikanta Kundu, Indian Statistical Institute
Volatility Spillovers between Spot and Futures Markets: Investigating China's Entry
Presented by: Pierre Siklos, Wilfrid Laurier University
A Random Walk through Mayfair: Dynamic Models of UK Art Market Prices and their Dependence on UK Equity Prices
Presented by: Rachel Pownall, Maastricht University
Session 92: Macro Labor June 28, 2014 16:20 to 17:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.08
Session Chair: Anastasia Zhutova, Paris School of Economics
Session type: contributed
Moving to a Job: The Role of Home Equity, Debt, and Acces to Credit
Presented by: Dmytro Hryshko, University of Alberta
The dynamics of employment: a variance components approach
Presented by: Lorenzo Cappellari, Università Cattolica
The cyclicality of labor market flows: A multiple-shock approach
Presented by: Anastasia Zhutova, Paris School of Economics
Session 93: Money and Inflation June 28, 2014 16:20 to 17:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.01.1
Session Chair: Roberta Colavecchio, Hamburg University
Session type: contributed
Making the Most of High Inflation
Presented by: Wojciech Charemza, University of Leicester
The determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area
Presented by: Laura Moretti, Center for Financial Studies at Goethe University Frankfurt
Whenever and Wherever: The Role of Card Acceptance in the Transaction Demand for Money
Presented by: Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
A money-based indicator for defl‡ation risk
Presented by: Roberta Colavecchio, Hamburg University
Session 94: Forecasting in Economics II June 28, 2014 16:20 to 17:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.02.6
Session Chair: Christian Proano, The New School for Social Research
Session type: contributed
Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive Models: A Comparison of Priors
Presented by: Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, WU Vienna
The KOF Economic Barometer, version 2014: A composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle
Presented by: Boriss Siliverstovs, ETH Zurich
Which team will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? A Bayesian approach for dummies
Presented by: Andres Ramirez, School of Economics and Finance
Detecting and Predicting Economic Accelerations, Recessions and Normal Growth Periods in Real-Time
Presented by: Christian Proano, The New School for Social Research
Session 95: Advances in Applied Micro June 28, 2014 16:20 to 17:40 Bancroft building, Room 3.40
Session Chair: Celine Bonnet, Toulouse School of Economics
Session type: contributed
Average and Heterogeneous Effects of School Inputs on Educational Achievement
Presented by: Ramaele Moshoeshoe, University of Cape Town
Winners and Losers in the Labour Market: Heterogeneous Effects of Brazil-China Trade
Presented by: Francisco Costa, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV/EPGE)
Natural Disaster, Policy Action, and Mental Well-Being: The Case of Fukushima
Presented by: Christian Krekel, German Institute for Economic Research
Organic label and profits sharing in the French fluid milk market
Presented by: Celine Bonnet, Toulouse School of Economics
Session 96: Macro-Finance: Risk, Credibility, Contagion June 28, 2014 16:20 to 17:40 Bancroft building, Room 3.24
Session Chair: Emre Yoldas, Federal Reserve Board
Session type: contributed
Analysis of Contagion from the Constant Conditional Correlation Model with Markov Regime Switching
Presented by: Pedro Valls Pereira, Sao Paulo School of Economics
Simple Estimators for the GARCH(1,1) Model
Presented by: Todd Prono, American University
A dynamic stochastic network model of the unsecured interbank lending market
Presented by: Falk Brauning, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Banking Industry Risk and Macroeconomic Implications
Presented by: Emre Yoldas, Federal Reserve Board
Session 97: Welfare: Crime, Education, Family Economics June 28, 2014 16:20 to 17:40 Bancroft building, Room 3.23
Session Chair: MIRIAM MARCEN, UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA
Session type: contributed
How far do criminals understand the criminal law? Evidence from French mandatory sentencing.
Presented by: arnaud philippe, CREST
Violent crime victimization and wellbeing: Evidence from dynamic panel data models
Presented by: Agne Suziedelyte, Monash University
Estimating Preferences in School Choice Mechanisms: Theoretical Foundation and Empirical Approaches
Presented by: Julien Grenet, Paris School of Economics
Divorce and the birth control pill
Presented by: MIRIAM MARCEN, UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA
Session 98: International Migration, Trade, Wages June 28, 2014 16:20 to 17:40 Bancroft building, Room 1.09
Session Chair: Nadine Behncke, University of Göttingen
Session type: contributed
The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows
Presented by: Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, FEDEA
The influence of size on firms’ internationalization: An assessment of export implications for Uruguayan manufacturing SMEs
Presented by: Dayna Zaclicever, University of the Republic
Outsourcing and the Gender Wage Gap in the EU
Presented by: Nadine Behncke, University of Göttingen