This section describes the estimation results for our empirical
model of the SSI and SSDI application and award
process. Figure 4.1 summarizes the ``game tree'' estimated here.
The branches below each decision node indicate the possible outcomes
at each stage and include the marginal probabilities computed from our
sample. Thus, 4% of the ``person-period'' observations in our sample
submitted an application, and of the 4% who submitted applications,
72% were ultimately accepted--50% were accepted at the first stage by
the DDS, while an additional 22% were accepted after one or more stages
of appeal.