June 24, 2015
18:00 to 22:00	Registration, LOBBY
June 25, 2015
08:15 to 17:00	Registration, LOBBY
08:45 to 09:00	Opening Address by Vasilis Sarafidis (Local Organizing Committee) and M. Hashem Pesaran (Chair of IAAE Board), “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
09:00 to 10:00	Plenary Session I (IAAE Lecture), “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
10:00 to 10:30	Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
10:30 to 11:50	Parallel Sessions I
11:50 to 12:10	Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
12:10 to 13:30	Parallel Sessions II
13:30 to 14:50	Lunch, GRAND BALLROOM
14:15 to 14:45	Poster Sessions I
14:50 to 15:50	Plenary Session II, “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
15:50 to 16:10	Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
16:10 to 17:30	Parallel Sessions III
19:45 to 21:30	Cocktail Reception, Thessaloniki City Hall
June 26, 2015
08:15 to 17:00	Registration, LOBBY
09:00 to 10:00	Plenary Session III, “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
10:00 to 10:30	Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
10:30 to 11:50	Parallel Sessions IV
11:50 to 12:10	Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
12:10 to 13:30	Parallel Sessions V
13:30 to 14:50	Lunch, GRAND BALLROOM
14:15 to 14:45	Poster Sessions II
14:50 to 15:50	Plenary Session IV, “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
15:50 to 16:10	Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
16:10 to 17:30	Parallel Sessions VI
19:45 to 22:00	Dinner, Warehouse C, Port of Thessaloniki
June 27, 2015
08:15 to 13:30	Registration, LOBBY
09:00 to 10:00	Plenary Session V, “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
10:00 to 10:30	Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
10:30 to 11:50	Parallel Sessions VII
11:50 to 12:10	Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
12:10 to 13:30	Parallel Sessions VIII
13:30 to 14:50	Lunch, GRAND BALLROOM
14:15 to 14:45	Poster Sessions III
14:50 to 15:50	Plenary Session VI, “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
15:50 to 16:10	Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
16:10 to 17:30	Parallel Sessions IX
17:30 to 17:45	Closing, LOBBY
June 28, 2015
08:30 to 17:00	Excursion/Tour, Archaeological sites at Vergina and Mieza

Summary of All Sessions
Click here for an index of all participants

#	Date/Time	Location	Type	Title	Papers
1	June 25, 2015 9:00-10:00	“VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre	invited	“Statistical Decision Theory for Treatment Choice” by Charles Manski	0
2	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	“VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Vector Autoregressions	4
3	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	“VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Multivariate Time Series	4
4	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Nonstandard Inference	4
5	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Time varying volatility	4
6	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics I	4
7	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Microstructure	4
8	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	“KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Threshold and related models	4
9	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	“ILIDA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Development Economics I	4
10	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	MEETING ROOM I	contributed	Health Economics I	4
11	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	MEETING ROOM II	contributed	Unemployment	4
12	June 25, 2015 10:30-11:50	MEETING ROOM III	contributed	Empirical Micro I	4
13	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Macro Forecasting I	4
14	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Quantile Methods	4
15	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Nonlinear Panel Data Methods	3
16	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	contributed	International	4
17	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre	contributed	International Linkages	4
18	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Macroeconomics and Uncertainty	4
19	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	“KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Labor Economics I	4
20	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	“ILIDA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Empirical Micro II	4
21	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	MEETING ROOM I	contributed	Education I	4
22	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	MEETING ROOM II	contributed	Inequality	4
23	June 25, 2015 12:10-13:30	MEETING ROOM III	contributed	News in Finance	4
24	June 25, 2015 14:15-14:45	OLYMPIA B	poster	Poster - Finance	4
25	June 25, 2015 14:15-14:45	OLYMPIA C	poster	Poster - Applied Micro	7
26	June 25, 2015 14:50-15:50	“VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre	invited	“Mostly Dangerous Econometrics: How to Do Model Selection with Inference in Mind” by Victor Chernozhukov	0
27	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Methods - Forecasting	3
28	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Structural Breaks	4
29	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	contributed	News Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics	2
30	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics II	4
31	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Financial frictions and the macroeconomy	4
32	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Empirical Methods in Macro	3
33	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	“KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Industrial Organization I	3
34	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	“ILIDA” Lecture Theatre	invited	Labor Economics II	4
35	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	MEETING ROOM I	contributed	Microeconometric Models	4
36	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	MEETING ROOM II	contributed	Empirical Micro III	3
37	June 25, 2015 16:10-17:30	MEETING ROOM III	contributed	Tail Risk	4
38	June 26, 2015 9:00-10:00	“VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre	invited	“Forecasting and policy analysis with DSGE models” by Marco del Negro	0
39	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	“VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Estimation I	4
40	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	“VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Nonlinear models	4
41	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Fiscal Policy and the Environment	4
42	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Macro Forecasting III	4
43	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Yield curve I	4
44	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Monetary Policy I	4
45	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	“KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Networks I	4
46	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	“ILIDA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Labor Economics III	4
47	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	MEETING ROOM I	contributed	Industrial Organization II	4
48	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	MEETING ROOM II	contributed	Empirical Micro IV	4
49	June 26, 2015 10:30-11:50	MEETING ROOM III	contributed	Advances in Time Series Methodology I	4
50	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Remembering long memory	4
51	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Panel Data Factor Models	4
52	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Macro Forecasting II	4
53	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Advances in Time Series Methodology II	4
54	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Time varying parameters I	4
55	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Commodity Prices	2
56	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	“KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Household Finance	3
57	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	“ILIDA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Monetary Policy II	4
58	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	MEETING ROOM I	contributed	Semi and Nonparametric III	4
59	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	MEETING ROOM II	contributed	Health Economics II	4
60	June 26, 2015 12:10-13:30	MEETING ROOM III	contributed	Gender and Demographics	4
61	June 26, 2015 14:15-14:45	"OLYMPIA B" Lecture Theatre	poster	Poster - Empirical Macro	9
62	June 26, 2015 14:15-14:45	"OLYMPIA C" Lecture Theatre	poster	Poster - Applied Time Series	7
63	June 26, 2015 14:50-15:50	“VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre	invited	“Precommitments for Financial Self-Control: Evidence from the 2003 Korean Credit Crisis” by John Rust	1
64	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Panel Data Models with Cross-Section Dependence	4
65	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Labor Economics IV	4
66	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Credit and Savings	3
67	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Development Economics II	4
68	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Panel Data Models I	4
69	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Oil and macroeconomic uncertainty	4
70	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	“KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Density Forecasting	3
71	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	“ILIDA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Monetary policy III	3
72	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	MEETING ROOM I	contributed	Data Rich Environments	4
73	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	MEETING ROOM II	contributed	Trend-Cycle Decompositions and the Frequency Domain	4
74	June 26, 2015 16:10-17:30	MEETING ROOM III	contributed	Unconventional monetary policy	4
75	June 27, 2015 9:00-10:00	“VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre	invited	“Unemployment and Business Cycles” by Larry Christiano	0
76	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	“VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Large Data/Model Combination	4
77	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	“VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics IV	4
78	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Information and Learning in Macroeconomics	4
79	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Factor Models	4
80	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Panel Data: Measurement Error, Endogeneity, and Treatment Effects	4
81	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	“OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Mixed Frequency/MIDAS	4
82	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	“KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Labor markets, monetary policy and the macroeconomy	4
83	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	“ILIDA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Panel Data Empirical	4
84	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	MEETING ROOM I	contributed	Futures and options	3
85	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	MEETING ROOM II	contributed	Health Economics III	3
86	June 27, 2015 10:30-11:50	MEETING ROOM III	contributed	Business cycle fluctuations	4
87	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Advances in Time Series Methodology III	3
88	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Panel Data Models with Spatial Dependence	4
89	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Forecasting Inflation	3
90	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Bayesian methods	4
91	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Advances in DSGE Modeling	4
92	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	“OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Networks II	4
93	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	“KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Labor V	4
94	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	“ILIDA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Empirical Micro V	4
95	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	MEETING ROOM I	contributed	Health Economics IV	3
96	June 27, 2015 12:10-13:30	MEETING ROOM II	contributed	Retirement	3
97	June 27, 2015 14:15-14:45	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	poster	Poster - Theoretical Time Series	5
98	June 27, 2015 14:15-14:45	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	poster	Poster - Applied Cross Section/Panel	7
99	June 27, 2015 14:15-14:45	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	poster	Poster - Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics	1
100	June 27, 2015 14:15-14:45	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	poster	Poster - Panel/Cross Section Theory	1
101	June 27, 2015 14:50-15:50	“VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre	invited	“Discrete Heterogeneity in Econometrics: Some Properties and Applications” by Stephane Bonhomme	0
102	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Panel Data Models II	4
103	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	“VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Spatial Macro	3
104	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Spatial Econometrics	3
105	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Financial frictions	4
106	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Noise, News and Sentiment Shocks	3
107	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	“OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Banking	4
108	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	“KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Yield Curve II	4
109	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	“ILIDA” Lecture Theatre	contributed	Time varying parameters II	4
110	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	MEETING ROOM I	contributed	Estimation II	3
111	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	MEETING ROOM II	contributed	Education II	4
112	June 27, 2015 16:10-17:30	MEETING ROOM III	contributed	Exchange Rates	4

 

112 sessions, 411 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers

IAAE 2015 Annual Conference
Detailed List of Sessions

Session 1: “Statistical Decision Theory for Treatment Choice” by Charles Manski June 25, 2015 9:00 to 10:00 “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: M. Hashem Pesaran, University of Southern California, and Trinity College, Cambridge
Session type: invited
Session 2: Vector Autoregressions June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Raffaella Giacomini, University College London
Session type: contributed
Common Sources of Instabilities in Macroeconomic Dynamics
Presented by: Pooyan Amir Ahmadi, Goethe University
Gaussian mixture vector autoregression
Presented by: Mika Meitz, University of Helsinki
Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions
Presented by: Eleonora Granziera, Bank of Canada
Inference about non-identified SVARs
Presented by: Raffaella Giacomini, University College London
Session 3: Multivariate Time Series June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Manfred Deistler, TU Wien
Session type: contributed
Dynamic vector mode regression
Presented by: Paulo M.D.C. Parente, Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL)
Determination of Vector Error Correction Models in Higher Dimensions
Presented by: Chong Liang, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Robust inference in structural VARs with long-run restrictions
Presented by: Sophocles Mavroeidis, Oxford University
Estimation of VAR Systems from Mixed Frequency Data
Presented by: Manfred Deistler, TU Wien
Session 4: Nonstandard Inference June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Frank Windmeijer, University of Bristol
Session type: contributed
Conditional Inference with a Functional Nuisance Parameter
Presented by: Anna Mikusheva, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A Generalized Two-Part Model for Fractional Response Variables with Excess Zeros
Presented by: Jörg Schwiebert, Leuphana University Lüneburg
Non-standard Confidence Sets for Ratios and Tipping Points with Applications to Dynamic Panel Data
Presented by: Marcel Voia, Carleton University
A weak instrument F-test in linear IV models with multiple endogenous variables
Presented by: Frank Windmeijer, University of Bristol
Session 5: Time varying volatility June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Yifan LI, Lancaster University
Session type: contributed
Volatility co-movements: a time scale decomposition analysis
Presented by: Andrea Cipollini, University of Palermo
Fitting vast dimensional time-varying covariance models
Presented by: Cavit Pakel, Bilkent University
What Explains Output Volatility in the G3? A Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model
Presented by: Grigorios Emvalomatis, University of Dundee
Volatility Asymmetry, Market Microstructure Effects, High-Frequency Volatility Estimation and Forecasting: An Autoregressive Conditional Intensity Approach
Presented by: Yifan LI, Lancaster University
Session 6: Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics I June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Di LIU, StataCorp LP
Session type: contributed
Nonparametric Comparison of Conditional Transition Probabilities: Is Italian Income Mobility Region Specific?
Presented by: Xiaojun Song, Peking University
Smooth Coefficient Estimation of a Seemingly Unrelated Regression
Presented by: Christopher Parmeter, University of Miami
Weighted average estimator in nonparametric quantile regression for the data of higher dimensions.
Presented by: Maria Marchenko, University of Mannheim
Sparse Sieve MLE
Presented by: Di LIU, StataCorp LP
Session 7: Microstructure June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Jun Sung Kim, Monash University
Session type: contributed
The Brazilian Foreign Exchange Market throught the Microstructure Prespective
Presented by: Pedro Valls Pereira, Sao Paulo School of Economics
Interactions Among High Frequency Traders
Presented by: Evangelos Benos, Bank of England
A Least Squares Regression Realised Covariation Estimation under MMS noise and Non-synchronous Trading
Presented by: Ingmar Nolte, Lancaster University
How Trade Matching Forms in the Credit Default Swap Market
Presented by: Jun Sung Kim, Monash University
Session 8: Threshold and related models June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Bruce Hansen, University of Wisconsin
Session type: contributed
Correlation robust threshold unit root tests
Presented by: Chien-Ho Wang, National Taipei University
Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors
Presented by: Mario Philipp Rothfelder, Tilburg University
Testing Mean Stability of a Heteroskedastic Time Series
Presented by: Violetta Dalla, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
Regression Kink with an Unknown Threshold
Presented by: Bruce Hansen, University of Wisconsin
Session 9: Development Economics I June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “ILIDA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: David Wuepper, Technical University Munich
Session type: contributed
Children of Drought: Rainfall Shocks and Early Child Health in Rural India
Presented by: Santosh Kumar, Sam Houston State University
Robust Correlates of Growth Spells: Do Inequality and Redistribution Matter?
Presented by: Charalambos Tsangarides, International Monetary Fund
Fertility Limits on Local Politicians in India
Presented by: Abhishek Chakravarty, University of Essex
History, Culture and Contract Farming: Empirical Evidence from Ghana
Presented by: David Wuepper, Technical University Munich
Session 10: Health Economics I June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 MEETING ROOM I
Session Chair: Gosia Poplawska, University of Oxford
Session type: contributed
The long reach of teenage motherhood: evidence from Europe
Presented by: Viola Angelini, University of Groningen
Early Life Health Interventions: Effects on Sickness Absence and Academic Performance
Presented by: Nina Schwarz, University of Duisburg-Essen
A Stochastic Frontier Model with Endogenous Treatment Status and Mediator
Presented by: Yi-Ting Chen, Academia Sinica
Sickness absenteeism and sickness insurance
Presented by: Gosia Poplawska, University of Oxford
Session 11: Unemployment June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 MEETING ROOM II
Session Chair: Andrés García-Suaza, Universidad Carlos III - Universidad del Rosario
Session type: contributed
Regional unemployment, Marriage and Divorce
Presented by: Rafael González-Val, Universidad de Zaragoza & Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB)
The German Mini-Job Reform: Intended and Unintended Consequences for Mini-Jobbers
Presented by: Gabriela Galassi,
The impact of the French Law 1987 on the employment of disabled people: an evaluation by the triple difference methodology
Presented by: Emmanuel Duguet, Université Paris Est, ERUDITE
Decomposition Methods with Censored Data and a Study of the Gender Unemployment Duration Gap
Presented by: Andrés García-Suaza, Universidad Carlos III - Universidad del Rosario
Session 12: Empirical Micro I June 25, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 MEETING ROOM III
Session Chair: Angela Parenti, IMT Lucca
Session type: contributed
Decomposing the danger of drinking drivers: 1983 to 2012
Presented by: Richard Dunn, University of Connecticut
New Keynesian Pricing Behaviour: Evidence from the Micro Data
Presented by: Lena Koerber, Bank of England and London School of Eco
Street Prostitution Zones and Crime
Presented by: Stephen Kastoryano, University of Mannheim
Regional Commuting in Italy: Do Temporary Contracts Affect the Decision?
Presented by: Angela Parenti, IMT Lucca
Session 13: Macro Forecasting I June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany: SUNY
Session type: contributed
EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area
Presented by: Martyna Marczak, University of Hohenheim
A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs
Presented by: Alexander Chudik, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Dating U.S. Business Cycles with Macro Factors
Presented by: Sebastian Fossati, University of Alberta
Construction of Leading Economic Index for Recession Prediction using Vine Copulas
Presented by: Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany: SUNY
Session 14: Quantile Methods June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Matthew Harding, Duke University
Session type: contributed
Markov-switching quantile autoregression: a Gibbs sampling approach
Presented by: Richard Luger, Laval University
Identification and Estimation of Quantile Effects using Panel Data
Presented by: Alexandre Poirier, University of Iowa
Instrumental Variable Quantile Regressions in Large Panels with Fixed Effects
Presented by: Martin Weidner, University College, London
Sparsity-Based Estimation of a Panel Quantile Count Data Model with Applications to Big Data
Presented by: Matthew Harding, Duke University
Session 15: Nonlinear Panel Data Methods June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Ivan Fernandez-Val, Boston University
Session type: contributed
Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Random Effects Models with Unbalanced Panels
Presented by: Pedro Albarran, Universidad de Alicante
Simultaneous equation models with discrete outcomes: Coherence and completeness using panel data
Presented by: Andrew Adrian Pua, Universiteit van Amsterdam
Nonlinear Panel Models with Interactive Effects
Presented by: Ivan Fernandez-Val, Boston University
Session 16: International June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Stella Capuano, IAB-Institute for Employment Research
Session type: contributed
Productivity, Markups and International Trade: The Case of Small Open Economy
Presented by: Umut Kilinc, STATEC, Luxembourg
Trade barriers in public procurement
Presented by: Lorenzo Rotunno, University of Oxford
The International Propagation of Technology Shocks
Presented by: Sean Holly, university cambridge
Offshoring and firm overlap
Presented by: Stella Capuano, IAB-Institute for Employment Research
Session 17: International Linkages June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Angela Parenti, IMT Lucca
Session type: contributed
Regulating Capital Flows at Both Ends: Does it Work?
Presented by: Mahvash Qureshi, International Monetary Fund
Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins
Presented by: Povilas Lastauskas, University of Cambridge
An Estimate of the Degree of Interconnectedness between European Regions: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
Presented by: Angela Parenti, IMT Lucca
Modeling cross correlation across major financial markets: a threshold approach
Presented by: Nektarios Aslanidis, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, CREIP
Session 18: Macroeconomics and Uncertainty June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Christina Strobach, De Nederlandsche Bank
Session type: contributed
Transmission channels of economic uncertainty effects on macroeconomic activity
Presented by: Ioannis Venetis, University of Patras
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Impact on Economic Activity: Investigating Two Different Measures
Presented by: Seohyun Lee, UCL
The changing transmission of uncertainty shocks in the US: an empirical analysis
Presented by: Konstantinos Theodoridis, Bank of England
On the relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic variables
Presented by: Christina Strobach, De Nederlandsche Bank
Session 19: Labor Economics I June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Pia Homrighausen,
Session type: contributed
The Adverse Incentive Effects of Heterogeneity in Tournaments-Empirical Evidence from The German Bundesliga
Presented by: Omar Bamieh,
The Impact of the Bosman Ruling on the Market for Native Soccer Players
Presented by: MIRIAM MARCEN, UNIVERSIDAD DE ZARAGOZA
Idiosyncratic labour market risk: Are couples differ from single individuals?
Presented by: Duangsuda Sopchokchai, University of Ottawa
Contracted out employment service programs: Compensation and private provider performance
Presented by: Pia Homrighausen,
Session 20: Empirical Micro II June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “ILIDA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Vidhura Tennekoon, IUPUI
Session type: contributed
Economic Valuation of Environmental Quality Using Property Auction Data:A Structural Estimation Approach
Presented by: Hayato Nakanishi, Kyoto University
Censored Fractional Response Model: Estimating Heterogeneous Relative Risk Aversion of European Households
Presented by: Qizhou Xiong, Toulouse School of Economics
Early Cannabis Use and the School to Work Transition of Young Men
Presented by: Jenny Williams, University of Melbourne
A BINOMIAL-THINNED ZERO-INFLATED POISSON MODEL FOR COUNTING UNREPORTED ABORTIONS
Presented by: Vidhura Tennekoon, IUPUI
Session 21: Education I June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 MEETING ROOM I
Session Chair: Hendrik Schmitz, University of Paderborn
Session type: contributed
Education,Labour and Violence in Turkey
Presented by: Selahattin Selsah Pasali, The Graduate Institute
Individual and Peer Returns to Starting School Later: Academic Redshirting vs. Lucky Date of Birth
Presented by: Timea Laura Molnar, University of British Columbia
Low Wage Returns to Schooling in a Developing Country: Evidence from a Major Policy Reform in Turkey
Presented by: Abdurrahman Aydemir, Sabanci University
Identifying Non-monetary Returns to Education Using the Marginal Treatment Effect Approach
Presented by: Hendrik Schmitz, University of Paderborn
Session 22: Inequality June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 MEETING ROOM II
Session Chair: Angeliki Theophilopoulou, University of Westminster
Session type: contributed
Nonlinearity and cross-country dependence of income inequality
Presented by: Tuomas Malinen, University of Helsinki
The Heterogeneous Effect of Income on Income Inequality
Presented by: ,
Income Inequality and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness: International Evidence
Presented by: Ju Pyun, Korea University Business School
Monetary Policy and Inequality in the UK
Presented by: Angeliki Theophilopoulou, University of Westminster
Session 23: News in Finance June 25, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 MEETING ROOM III
Session Chair: Stanislav Anatolyev, New Economic School
Session type: contributed
Transactions and news in the global equity market: evidence from the point process theory
Presented by: Vladimir Volkov,
The impact of macroeconomic news on the euro-dollar exchange rate
Presented by: Alberto Caruso, Universitè Libre de Bruxelles
Dissent in FOMC meetings and the announcement drift
Presented by: Joao Madeira, University of York
Uncovering the skewness news impact curve
Presented by: Stanislav Anatolyev, New Economic School
Session 24: Poster - Finance June 25, 2015 14:15 to 14:45 OLYMPIA B
Session type: poster
Profiting from Mimicking Strategies in Non-Anonymous Markets
Presented by: Michalis Vasios, Bank of England
Domestic credit in times of supervision: an empirical investigation of European countries
Presented by: Alexandru Monahov, ISEM, University of Nice
Default and Naive Diversification Heuristics in Annuity Choice
Presented by: Fedor Iskhakov, University of New South Wales
The dynamics of capital structure: empirical evidence from Romanian listed firms
Presented by: Gabriela Brendea, Babes-Bolyai University, Romania
Session 25: Poster - Applied Micro June 25, 2015 14:15 to 14:45 OLYMPIA C
Session type: poster
KNOWING WHO YOU ARE: THE EFFECT OF FEEDBACK INFORMATION ON EXAM PLACEMENT
Presented by: Sofoklis Goulas, University of North Carolina,Chapel Hill
Robust Determinants of Intergenerational Mobility in the Land of Opportunity
Presented by: Andros Kourtellos, University of Cyprus
Grandmothers' Labor Supply
Presented by: Bernhard Schmidpeter, Johannes Kepler University Linz
Learning as a non-magical process: Evidence from India.
Presented by: Nanditha Mathew, Sant' Anna School of Advanced Studies
Partial Identification of Treatment Effect in Binary Outcome Models: An Application to Health Insurance and Dental Service Utilisation
Presented by: Xueyan Zhao, Monash University
The Effect of Peer Observation on the Consumption of Temptation Goods: Experimental Evidence
Presented by: Sahra Sakha, Leibniz University Hanover
Conspicuous Consumption and Reference-Dependent Preferences: Implications of Veblen’s Theory in Rural India
Presented by: Clement Bellet, Sciences Po Paris
Session 26: “Mostly Dangerous Econometrics: How to Do Model Selection with Inference in Mind” by Victor Chernozhukov June 25, 2015 14:50 to 15:50 “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Stilianos Fountas, University of Macedonia
Session type: invited
Session 27: Methods - Forecasting June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Richard Gerlach, University of Sydney
Session type: contributed
Microfounded Forecasting
Presented by: Joao Issler, Getulio Vargas Foundation
Structural break models under misspecification: Implications for forecasting
Presented by: Bonsoo Koo, Monash University
Bayesian assessment of dynamic quantile forecasts
Presented by: Richard Gerlach, University of Sydney
Session 28: Structural Breaks June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Yohei Yamamoto, Hitotsubashi University
Session type: contributed
RALS-LM Unit Root Test with Trend Breaks and Non-Normal Errors: Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis
Presented by: Junsoo Lee, University of Alabama
Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data
Presented by: ,
Regime switching model with endogenous autoregressive latent factor
Presented by: Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University
A Modified Confidence Set for the Structural Break Date in Linear Regression Models
Presented by: Yohei Yamamoto, Hitotsubashi University
Session 29: News Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Christopher Otrok, University of Missouri
Session type: contributed
TFP or IST Driven Business Cycles? - an Application of Importance Restrictions
Presented by: Srecko Zimic, European University Institute
News Shocks and Inflation: Lessons for New Keynesians
Presented by: Christopher Otrok, University of Missouri
Session 30: Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics II June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Martin Huber, University of Fribourg
Session type: contributed
Who should be Treated? Empirical Welfare Maximization Methods for Treatment Choice
Presented by: Aleksey Tetenov, Collegio Carlo Alberto
Discrete Choice Welfare Analysis: Further Results
Presented by: Debopam Bhattacharya, University of Oxford
Efficient propensity score regression estimators of multivalued treatment effects for the treated
Presented by: Ying-Ying Lee, University of Oxford
The finite sample performance of semi- and nonparametric estimators for treatment effects and policy evaluation
Presented by: Martin Huber, University of Fribourg
Session 31: Financial frictions and the macroeconomy June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Giulio Nicoletti, European Central Bank
Session type: contributed
The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks
Presented by: Cristina Fuentes Albero, Board of Governors
Reallocation of Credit Across Banks and Firms: A SVAR Analysis
Presented by: Riccardo DiCecio, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Interbank Market Uncertainty and Bank Lending
Presented by: Carlo Altavilla, European Central Bank
Credit financing and economic activity
Presented by: Giulio Nicoletti, European Central Bank
Session 32: Empirical Methods in Macro June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Matthias Hartmann, University of Heidelberg
Session type: contributed
The explicit formula for the Hodrick-Prescott filter
Presented by: Adriana Cornea-Madeira, University of York
Estimating Economic Relationships under Measurement Error: An Application to the Productivity of US Manufacturing
Presented by: Alicia Rambaldi, The University of Queensland
Dynamics or diversity? An empirical appraisal of distinct means to measure inflation uncertainty
Presented by: Matthias Hartmann, University of Heidelberg
Session 33: Industrial Organization I June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Fedor Iskhakov, University of New South Wales
Session type: contributed
Instrument-free Identification and Estimation of Differentiated Products Models
Presented by: Susumu Imai, University of Technology Sydney
It's all in the Interval: An imperfect measurements approach to estimate bidders’ costs in descending first price sealed bid auctions
Presented by: David Sundström, Umeå University
Constrained Optimization Approaches to Estimation of Structural Models: Comment
Presented by: Fedor Iskhakov, University of New South Wales
Session 34: Labor Economics II June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “ILIDA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Helmut Farbmacher, Max Planck Society
Session type: invited
Mothers' Employment and Children's Educational Gender Gap
Presented by: Simen Markussen, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research
How Risk Averse and how Prudent are Workers?
Presented by: Davud Rostam-Afschar, Freie Universität Berlin
Pros and Cons of Sick Pay Schemes: A Method to Test for Contagious Presenteeism and Shirking Behavior
Presented by: Nicolas Ziebarth, Cornell University
Increasing the credibility of the twin birth instrument
Presented by: Helmut Farbmacher, Max Planck Society
Session 35: Microeconometric Models June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 MEETING ROOM I
Session Chair: Gregor Pfeifer, U Hohenheim
Session type: contributed
Spatial Dependence in Apartment Offering Prices in Hamburg, Germany
Presented by: Lea Eilers, RWI Essen
Interaction matrix selection in heteroscedastic spatial econometric models
Presented by: Cem Ertur, Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans - UMR
Industrial development in the Italian regions, 1861-1913: new evidence
Presented by: Stefano Fachin, University of Rome
Synthetic Control Methods: Never Use All Pre-Intervention Outcomes as Economic Predictors
Presented by: Gregor Pfeifer, U Hohenheim
Session 36: Empirical Micro III June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 MEETING ROOM II
Session Chair: Cleomar Gomes da Silva, Federal University of Uberlândia
Session type: contributed
Nonparametric models of financial leverage decisions
Presented by: Joaquim Ramalho, Universidade de Evora
The quantity of corporate credit rationing with matched bank-firm data
Presented by: Andrea Nobili, Banca d'Italia
Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the World Economy: Coordination Before and After the Financial Crisis
Presented by: Cleomar Gomes da Silva, Federal University of Uberlândia
Session 37: Tail Risk June 25, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 MEETING ROOM III
Session Chair: Kyle Moore, LSE
Session type: contributed
Fuzzy Clustering of Extremes
Presented by: Ann Maharaj, Monash University
Driven by Fear? The Tail Risk Premium in the Crude Oil Futures Market
Presented by: Reinhard Ellwanger, European University Institute, Florence
Modeling Systemic Risk: Time-Varying Tail Dependence When Forecasting Marginal Expected Shortfall
Presented by: Tobias Eckernkemper, University of Cologne
Cross-section of tail risk in stock returns
Presented by: Kyle Moore, LSE
Session 38: “Forecasting and policy analysis with DSGE models” by Marco del Negro June 26, 2015 9:00 to 10:00 “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Fabio Canova, EUI
Session type: invited
Session 39: Estimation I June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Colin Cameron, University of California
Session type: contributed
Node-Wise Approach to Precision Matrix Estimation of Portfolio Optimization
Presented by: Esra Ulasan, Ege University
Combination of “Combinations of P-values” with Applications to Testing Information Rigidity in Macroeconomic Forecasts
Presented by: Xuguang Sheng, American University
Bootstrap Methods for Inference with Cluster-Sample IV Models
Presented by: Leandro Magnusson, University of Western Australia
Robust Inference for Dyadic Data
Presented by: Colin Cameron, University of California
Session 40: Nonlinear models June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Mu-Chun Wang, Hamburg University
Session type: contributed
Structural Vector Autoregressions with Smooth Transition in Variances: The Interaction Between U.S. Monetary Policy and the Stock Market
Presented by: Aleksei Netsunajev, Freie Universitat Berlin
Credit Supply Shocks in US Bond Markets: Are There Nonlinearities?
Presented by: Gabriela Nodari, University of New South Wales
Models of Financial Return With Time-Varying Zero-Probability
Presented by: Genaro Sucarrat, BI Norwegian Business School
Measurement Errors and Monetary Policy: Then and Now
Presented by: Mu-Chun Wang, Hamburg University
Session 41: Fiscal Policy and the Environment June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Gernot Mueller, University of Tuebingen
Session type: contributed
Synthesizing Cash for Clunkers: Stabilizing the Car Market, Hurting the Environment
Presented by: Stefan Klößner, Saarland University
Do stringent environmental policies deter FDI? M&A versus Green field
Presented by: Sylwia Bialek, University of Frankfurt
Private Debt Overhang and the Government Spending Multiplier: Evidence for the United States
Presented by: Marco Bernardini, Ghent University
Does austerity pay off?
Presented by: Gernot Mueller, University of Tuebingen
Session 42: Macro Forecasting III June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Gregor von Schweinitz, Halle Institute for Economic Research
Session type: contributed
Medium-Term Forecasting of Euro-Area Macroeconomic Variables with DSGE and BVARX Models
Presented by: Alessandro Notarpietro, Bank of Italy
Forecasting in a DSGE Model with Banking Intermediation: Evidence from the US
Presented by: Alessia Paccagnini, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocc
Leading indicators of the business cycle: dynamic logit models for OECD countries and Russia
Presented by: Anna Pestova, NRU HSE
Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis
Presented by: Gregor von Schweinitz, Halle Institute for Economic Research
Session 43: Yield curve I June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Session type: contributed
What Drives the Yield Curve?
Presented by: Michel van der Wel, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Staying at Zero with Affine Processes: A New Dynamic Term Structure Model
Presented by: Jean-Paul Renne, Banque de France
Economic Relevance of Hidden Factors in International Bond Risk Premia
Presented by: Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Unspanned macroeconomic factors in the yield curve
Presented by: Laura Coroneo, University of York
Session 44: Monetary Policy I June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Michael Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Session type: contributed
Testing for optimal monetary policy via moment inequalities
Presented by: Paulo Santos Monteiro, University of York
The Role of Financial Depth on The Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy
Presented by: Kostas Mouratidis, The University of Sheffield
The impact of liquidity regulation on banks
Presented by: Ryan Banerjee, Bank for International Settlements
Taylor Rules with Financial Market Expectations
Presented by: Michael Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Session 45: Networks I June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Vincent Boucher, Université Laval
Session type: contributed
Discrete Games in Endogenous Networks: Theory and Policy
Presented by: Anton Badev, Federal Reserve Board
Endogenous Social Interactions: Which Peers Matter?
Presented by: Eirini Tatsi, Goethe University
How much did poor people gain? A structural Bayesian approach with spatial effects
Presented by: Andres Ramirez, Universidad EAFIT
Conformism and Self-Selection in Social Networks
Presented by: Vincent Boucher, Université Laval
Session 46: Labor Economics III June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “ILIDA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Giovanni Mellace, University of Southern Denmark
Session type: contributed
Selection in Tournaments: The Case of Chess Players
Presented by: Michael Visser, CREST
A Backward-Bending and Forward-Falling Semi-log Model of Labour Supply
Presented by: Alexandros Polycarpou, University of Cyprus
DOES INFORMAL WORKPLACE LEARNING IN OECD COUNTRIES DIFFER BY CONTRACT DURATION?
Presented by: Maria Ferreira Sequeda, Maastricht University
Why do tougher caseworkers increase employment? The role of programme assignment as a causal mechanism
Presented by: Giovanni Mellace, University of Southern Denmark
Session 47: Industrial Organization II June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 MEETING ROOM I
Session Chair: Ioana Neamtu, Aarhus University
Session type: contributed
Competition, Exporting and Quality Upgrading: The Chinese Menace to the Peruvian Apparel Industry
Presented by: Pamela Medina, Duke University
Dynamics of Technological Innovation and Employment: Panel Evidence from Luxembourg
Presented by: Ni Zhen, University of Luxembourg
Small Firms’ Productivity Levels, Closures and Net Job Destruction at an Intensive Margin During a Recession: an analysis based on Mexico´s economic census micro datasets
Presented by: angel calderon, El Colegio de Mexico
Demand and supply management for electricity markets: econometric analysis of electricity prices
Presented by: Ioana Neamtu, Aarhus University
Session 48: Empirical Micro IV June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 MEETING ROOM II
Session Chair: Jian Li, University of Luxembourg
Session type: contributed
The Economic Effects of Asymmetric External Consumption Habits of US Households
Presented by: Kai Daniel Schmid, Hans-Boeckler-Foundation
Measuring Energy Intensity and Elasticity in India: A Dummy Variable Approach for Unit level Household Data
Presented by: Alok Pandey, DAV PG College, BHU
Political Connections and Alignment: Evidence from Intergovernmental Grants in France
Presented by: Brice Fabre, Paris School of Economics
Risk Taking , Religiosity and Denomination Heterogeneity
Presented by: Jian Li, University of Luxembourg
Session 49: Advances in Time Series Methodology I June 26, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 MEETING ROOM III
Session Chair: Christian Bontemps, Toulouse School of Economics
Session type: contributed
Nonparametric Regression Estimation for Multivariate Null Recurrent Processes
Presented by: Biqing Cai, University of Bergen
Indirect inference with time series observed with error
Presented by: Eduardo Rossi, University of Pavia
Misspecification Testing in GARCH-MIDAS Models
Presented by: Christian Conrad, University of Heidelberg
Simple moment-based tests for value-at-risk models and discrete distributions
Presented by: Christian Bontemps, Toulouse School of Economics
Session 50: Remembering long memory June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Richard Baillie, Michigan State University
Session type: contributed
Comparing Predictive Accuracy Under Long Memory
Presented by: Christian Leschinski, Leibniz Universität Hannover
Learning can generate Long Memory
Presented by: Guillaume Chevillon, ESSEC Business School
Adaptive Long Memory Testing under Heteroskedasticity
Presented by: Hsein Kew, Monash University
Inference for Impulse Response Coefficients from Multivariate Fractionally Integrated Processes
Presented by: Richard Baillie, Michigan State University
Session 51: Panel Data Factor Models June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Joakim Westerlund, Lund University
Session type: contributed
A Factor Analytical Method to Interactive Effects Dynamic Panel Models with or without Unit Root
Presented by: Milda Norkute, Lund University
Factor-augmented Prediction with Idiosyncratic Factors
Presented by: Zhuojiong Gan, Tilburg University
Least Squares Estimation of Large Dimensional Change-Point Factor Models
Presented by: Daniele Massacci, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
The Asymptotic Local Power of a Factor Analytical Panel Unit Root Test
Presented by: Joakim Westerlund, Lund University
Session 52: Macro Forecasting II June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Rodrigo Sekkel, Bank of Canada
Session type: contributed
Heterogeneity in the European Monetary Union and the Crisis
Presented by: Giulia Rivolta, University of Brescia
Forecast-Error-Based Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty When the Horizon Is Increased
Presented by: Malte Knüppel, Deutsche Bundesbank
Forecasting aggregates with disaggregate variables: Does boosting help to select the most relevant predictors?
Presented by: Jing Zeng, University of Konstanz
Forecasting Recessions in Canada
Presented by: Rodrigo Sekkel, Bank of Canada
Session 53: Advances in Time Series Methodology II June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Liudas Giraitis, Queen Mary University
Session type: contributed
A multivariate test against spurious long memory
Presented by: Philipp Sibbertsen, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover
Identification conditions in simultaneous systems of cointegrating equations of higher order
Presented by: Paolo Paruolo, European Commission, DG JRC
Intervention Impact Evaluation on Aggregated Data: The Artificial Counterfactual Approach for Stationary Processes
Presented by: Ricardo Masini, PUC-Rio
Autoregressive conditional duration and FIGARCH models: origins of long memory
Presented by: Liudas Giraitis, Queen Mary University
Session 54: Time varying parameters I June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Shuping Shi, Macquarie University
Session type: contributed
Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with time-varying parameter models
Presented by: Angela Abbate, Deutsche Bundesbank
What's so Great about the Great Moderation? A Multi-Country Investigation of Time-Varying Volatilities of Output Growth and Inflation
Presented by: Victor Valcarcel, Texas Tech University
Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: An improved prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models
Presented by: Peter Reusens, KU Leuven
Change Detection in Granger Causality
Presented by: Shuping Shi, Macquarie University
Session 55: Commodity Prices June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Hilde Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School
Session type: contributed
Common Factors of Commodity Prices
Presented by: Simona Delle Chiaie, Banque de France
Commodity prices, fiscal policy design and economic activity
Presented by: Hilde Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School
Session 56: Household Finance June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Giuseppe Dachille, University of Rome Tor Vergata
Session type: contributed
This Is What’s in Your Wallet...and Here’s How You Use It
Presented by: Tamas Briglevics, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Estimation of Household Account Adoption Costs: The Case of ATM Cards in Italy
Presented by: Angelika Welte, Bank of Canada
Job Loss Experience, Employment Protection Legislation and Portfolio Choices
Presented by: Giuseppe Dachille, University of Rome Tor Vergata
Session 57: Monetary Policy II June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “ILIDA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Apostolos Serletis, University of Calgary
Session type: contributed
Can the Provision of Long-Term Liquidity Help to Avoid a Credit Crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem's LTROs
Presented by: Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, Banque de France
The Output-inflation Trade-off: International Panel Data Evidence
Presented by: Georgios Chortareas, King's College London
Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: A VAR analysis for the euro area
Presented by: Manfred Kremer, European Central Bank
Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks
Presented by: Apostolos Serletis, University of Calgary
Session 58: Semi and Nonparametric III June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 MEETING ROOM I
Session Chair: Alan Ker, University of Guelph
Session type: contributed
Functional Principal Component Analysis of Density Families with Complex Survey Data on UK Prices
Presented by: Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
Convergence and Mobility in The World Size Distribution of GNP per capita: Semiparametric Country Classification Sans Frontiers.
Presented by: Gordon Anderson, Economics department
Semiparametric Spatial Autoregressive Models with Endogenous Regressors: With an Application to Crime Data
Presented by: Tadao Hoshino, Waseda University
Nonparametric Estimation of Possibly Similar Densities with Application to the U.S. Crop Insurance Program
Presented by: Alan Ker, University of Guelph
Session 59: Health Economics II June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 MEETING ROOM II
Session Chair: Susana Iranzo, Universitat Rovira Virgili and Universit
Session type: contributed
Neither Public nor Private: The Effects of Communal Water Provision on Child Health in Peru
Presented by: Susana Iranzo, Universitat Rovira Virgili and Universit
Free patient mobility is not a free lunch. Lessons from a decentralised NHS.
Presented by: Silvia Balia, Università di Cagliari
IMPACT OF HEALTH ON LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN SOUTH AFRICA
Presented by: Chijioke Nwosu, University of Cape Town
A New Formulation for Latent Class Models: Implications for Modelling Body Mass Index
Presented by: Mark Harris, Curtin University of Technology
Session 60: Gender and Demographics June 26, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 MEETING ROOM III
Session Chair: David Pacini, University of Bristol
Session type: contributed
The evolution of the gender wage gap: 1968-2008
Presented by: Giulia Santangelo, European Commission - Joint Research Centre
The Effect of Ethnic Clustering on Migrant Integration in Germany
Presented by: Sandra Schaffner, RWI
On private unobserved returns to international migration in a couple
Presented by: Romuald Meango, IFO
Combining Samples to Estimate Linear Projections with Interval-Censored Outcomes: An Application to Measuring the Sexual Orientation Earnings Gap
Presented by: David Pacini, University of Bristol
Session 61: Poster - Empirical Macro June 26, 2015 14:15 to 14:45 "OLYMPIA B" Lecture Theatre
Session type: poster
Strategic interactions of fiscal policies in Europe: a global VAR perspective
Presented by: Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Is there any relationship between the rates of interest and profit in the U.S. economy?
Presented by: Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, University of Kent
What Drives the Fluctuations in Exchange Rates of Emerging Markets -- A Multi-Level Dynamic Factor Approach
Presented by: Clark Liu, Tsinghua University
Income distribution and the current account: a sectoral perspective
Presented by: Jan Behringer, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)
A Century of nominal history in Argentina: monetary instability and non-neutralities
Presented by: Laura D'Amato, Banco Central De La Republica Argentina
Inequality Accounting for a Large Cross-Section of Countries
Presented by: Davide Fiaschi, University of Pisa
Destabilising effects of bank overleveraging on real activity – An analysis based on a nonlinear mixed-cross-section GVAR
Presented by: Marco Gross, European Central Bank
Opening the Red Budget Box: Nonlinear Effects of a Tax Shock in the UK
Presented by: Valentina Colombo, University of Padova, Central Bank of Ireland
Output growth and volatility. The role of financial integration in developing and industrial countries.
Presented by: Izabela Sobiech, Goethe University Frankfurt
Session 62: Poster - Applied Time Series June 26, 2015 14:15 to 14:45 "OLYMPIA C" Lecture Theatre
Session type: poster
Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy.
Presented by: Roselyne Joyeux, Macquarie University
Dynamic structural spillovers between oil and stock markets at times of geopolitical unrest and economic turbulence
Presented by: Nikolaos Antonakakis, Vienna University of Economics and Busin
Adaptive Models and Hevay Tails
Presented by: Davide Delle Monache, Bank of Italy
Structural break tests robust to regression misspecification
Presented by: Alaa Abi Morshed, Tilburg University
Fiscal Spending Shocks, Abnormal Stock Returns and the Fiscal Multiplier
Presented by: Nils Wittmann, TU Dortmund University
EVAULATING GDP AND INFLATION FORECASTING MODELS
Presented by: Sima Siami Namini, Texas Tech University
Asymmetric Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models
Presented by: John Keating, University of Kansas
Session 63: “Precommitments for Financial Self-Control: Evidence from the 2003 Korean Credit Crisis” by John Rust June 26, 2015 14:50 to 15:50 “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Thierry Magnac, Toulouse School of Economics
Session type: invited
Precommitments for Financial Self-Control: Evidence from the 2003 Korean Credit Crisis
Presented by: John Rust, Georgetown University
Session 64: Panel Data Models with Cross-Section Dependence June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: M. Hashem Pesaran, University of Southern California, and Trinity College, Cambridge
Session type: contributed
Transformed Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Short Dynamic Panel Data Models with Interactive Effects
Presented by: L. Vanessa Smith, University of York
Detection of Structural Breaks in Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models with a Multi-Factor Structure
Presented by: Huanjun Zhu, Monash University
UNIT ROOT INFERENCE IN GENERALLY TRENDING AND CROSS-CORRELATED FIXED-T PANELS
Presented by: Vasilis Sarafidis, Monash University
Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogenous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors
Presented by: M. Hashem Pesaran, University of Southern California, and Trinity College, Cambridge
Session 65: Labor Economics IV June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Thierry Magnac, Université de Toulouse
Session type: contributed
Participation and wages in the New Zealand labour market market:: An analysis using copulas
Presented by: Murat Genc, University of Otago
Geographical constraints in track choices : a French study using high school openings
Presented by: Meryam Zaiem, CREST-EHESS
Estimating On-the-job Search and the Effects of Income Taxation: A Structural Approach
Presented by: Guillaume Wilemme, Sciences Po Paris
College Choice Allocation Mechanisms: Structural Estimates and Counterfactuals
Presented by: Thierry Magnac, Université de Toulouse
Session 66: Credit and Savings June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Tiago Pires, University of North Carolina
Session type: contributed
The Effect of House Price Changes on Household Saving Behaviour: A Theoretical and Empirical Study of the Dutch Case
Presented by: Eduard Suari-Andreu, University of Groningen
The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and corporate outcomes in the United Kingdom
Presented by: May Rostom, University College London & Bank of England
Cash-constrained Households and Product Size
Presented by: Tiago Pires, University of North Carolina
Session 67: Development Economics II June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Heather Anderson, Monash University
Session type: contributed
INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: MULTIPLE HETEROGENEITY
Presented by: Natalia Radchenko, Economics
Microeconometric Evaluation of Malaria Control Programs in Sub-Saharan Africa
Presented by: Selver Derya Uysal, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
Updating Poverty Estimates in the Absence of Regular and Comparable Consumption Data: Methods and Illustration with Reference to a Middle-Income Country
Presented by: Hai-Anh Dang, World Bank
How Do Shocks to Domestic Factors Affect Real Exchange Rates of Asian Developing Countries?
Presented by: Heather Anderson, Monash University
Session 68: Panel Data Models I June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Geert Dhaene, KU Leuven
Session type: contributed
Iterative Estimation Correcting for Error Autocorrelation in Short Panels Applied to Lagged Dependent Variable Models
Presented by: Rembert De Blander, KU Leuven
A Jacobian Approach to Solve the Incidental Parameter Problem
Presented by: Guangjie LI, Cardiff University
Exponential regression of panel data fractional response models
Presented by: Esmeralda Ramalho, University of Evora
Profile score adjustments for incidental parameter problems
Presented by: Geert Dhaene, KU Leuven
Session 69: Oil and macroeconomic uncertainty June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Jesus Otero, Universidad del Rosario
Session type: contributed
Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability
Presented by: Vegard Larsen, BI Norwegian Business School
Global Oil Prices and Recessions: the Role of Nontradeables
Presented by: Makram Khalil, University of Vienna, Vienna Graduate School of Economics
Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Fluctuations: A VAR Approach
Presented by: Michele Cavallo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv
Integration in Gasoline and Ethanol Markets in Brazil over Time and Space under the Flex-fuel Technology
Presented by: Jesus Otero, Universidad del Rosario
Session 70: Density Forecasting June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Lena Koerber,
Session type: contributed
Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Datasets
Presented by: Stefano Grassi, University of Kent
Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Predictive Densities
Presented by: Tatevik Sekhposyan, Texas A&M University
Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis
Presented by: Lena Koerber,
Session 71: Monetary policy III June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “ILIDA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Gregory Bauer, Bank of Canada
Session type: contributed
Hot Money and Quantitative Easing: The Spillover Eects of U.S. Monetary Policy on the Chinese Economy
Presented by: Ji Zhang, Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance
Gimme a Break! Identification and Estimation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in the U.S.
Presented by: Emanuele Bacchiocchi, University of Milan
International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums
Presented by: Gregory Bauer, Bank of Canada
Session 72: Data Rich Environments June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 MEETING ROOM I
Session Chair: Dalibor Stevanovic, Université du Québec à Montréal
Session type: contributed
Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?
Presented by: Francesca Monti, Bank of England
Modelling Time Varying Volatility Spillovers and Conditional Correlations Across Commodity Metal Futures
Presented by: Faek Menla Ali, Brunel University London
Output gap and inflation forecasts in a Bayesian dynamic factor model of the euro area
Presented by: Marek Jarocinski, European Central Bank
FACTOR AUGMENTED AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODELS WITH MACROECONOMIC APPLICATIONS
Presented by: Dalibor Stevanovic, Université du Québec à Montréal
Session 73: Trend-Cycle Decompositions and the Frequency Domain June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 MEETING ROOM II
Session Chair: Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Session type: contributed
Synchronization of Cycles in a Data-Rich Environment
Presented by: Cem Cakmakli, Koc University
Characterizing the Financial Cycle: Evidence from a Frequency Domain Analysis
Presented by: Christian Proaño, University of Bamberg
What Do Professional Forecasters Actually Predict?
Presented by: Didier Nibbering, Erasmus University Rotterdam
When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?
Presented by: Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Session 74: Unconventional monetary policy June 26, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 MEETING ROOM III
Session Chair: Kirstin Hubrich, European Central Bank
Session type: contributed
Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia
Presented by: Chiara Scotti, Federal Reserve Board
Monetary policy propagation and uncertainty
Presented by: Esteban Prieto, Deutsche Bundesbank
A large-dimensional factor analysis of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases
Presented by: Lasse Bork, Aalborg University
Monetary and financial stability policy: Unconventional monetary policy, leverage and financial stress
Presented by: Kirstin Hubrich, European Central Bank
Session 75: “Unemployment and Business Cycles” by Larry Christiano June 27, 2015 9:00 to 10:00 “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Barbara Rossi, ICREA Universitat Pompeu Fabra Barcelona
Session type: invited
Session 76: Large Data/Model Combination June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Michael McCracken, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Session type: contributed
Model pooling and changes in the informational content of predictors: an empirical investigation for the euro area
Presented by: Tim Schwarzmüller, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations
Presented by: Francesco Ravazzolo, Norges Bank
LASSO-type penalties for covariate selection and forecasting in time series
Presented by: Flavio Ziegelmann, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research
Presented by: Michael McCracken, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Session 77: Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics IV June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Robin Sickles, Rice University
Session type: contributed
Nonparametric Discrete Choice Models for Time Series: Theory and Application to Predicting Recessions
Presented by: Valentin Zelenyuk, The University of Queensland
Diagnostic Tests for the Selection-on-Observables Assumption: The Case of Women, Infants, and Children Program
Presented by: Nese Yildiz, University of Rochester
On the Existence of Root-N Estimators of Linear Functionals in Non-Parametric IV Models
Presented by: Laurent Davezies, Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique
Semiparametric Estimation under Shape Constraints
Presented by: Robin Sickles, Rice University
Session 78: Information and Learning in Macroeconomics June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: John Barrdear, Bank of England
Session type: contributed
Are the DSGE model shocks fundamental or redundant ?
Presented by: Filippo Ferroni, Banque de France
Information Rigidity in Macroeconomic Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation
Presented by: Jonathan Wallen, American University
Learning and the Market for Housing
Presented by: Eyno Rots, Central Bank of Hungary
Towards a New Keynesian Theory of the Price Level
Presented by: John Barrdear, Bank of England
Session 79: Factor Models June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Marco Lippi, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Session type: contributed
In-sample inference and forecasting in misspecified factor models
Presented by: Barbara Rossi, ICREA Universitat Pompeu Fabra Barcelona
Supervision in Factor Models Using a Large Number of Predictors
Presented by: Lorenzo Boldrini, CREATES
Sufficient Reductions in Dynamic Factor Models
Presented by: alessandro barbarino, Federal Reserve Board
Dynamic Factor Model with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: Forecasting
Presented by: Marco Lippi, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Session 80: Panel Data: Measurement Error, Endogeneity, and Treatment Effects June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Laura Spierdijk, University of Groningen
Session type: contributed
Identification of causal effects in recursive settable systems and its testability
Presented by: Joeri Smits, ETH Zurich
OLS and IV estimation of regression models including endogenous interaction terms
Presented by: Maurice Bun, University of Amsterdam
Synthesizing Aright: How to Avoid Pitfalls of Synthetic Control Methods
Presented by: Manuel Schieler, Saarland University
Consistent Estimation of Linear Panel Data Models with Measurement Error
Presented by: Laura Spierdijk, University of Groningen
Session 81: Mixed Frequency/MIDAS June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Boriss Siliverstovs, ETH Zurich
Session type: contributed
Variable selection in predictive MIDAS models
Presented by: Clément Marsilli, Banque de France
Linearity in Mixed-Frequency Regressions: Estimation, Model Uncertainty, and Monitoring
Presented by: Yu-chin Chen, University of Washington
Using Low Frequency Information for Predicting High Frequency Variables
Presented by: Claudia Foroni, Norges Bank
Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: A MIDASSO approach
Presented by: Boriss Siliverstovs, ETH Zurich
Session 82: Labor markets, monetary policy and the macroeconomy June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Thomas Lubik, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Session type: contributed
Labor Supply Factors and Economic Fluctuations
Presented by: Francesco Furlanetto, Norges Bank
It Ain't Over Till It's Over: Great 4 int the Way it all Began
Presented by: Claudio Morana, Università di Milano Bicocca
Labor Market Policies and the "Missing Deflation" Puzzle : Lessons from Hoover Policies during the Great Depression.
Presented by: Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, HEC Lausanne
Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs
Presented by: Thomas Lubik, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Session 83: Panel Data Empirical June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 “ILIDA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Alessandra Marcelletti, University of Rome, Tor Vergata
Session type: contributed
Export Dynamics Since the Great Trade Collapse: A cross-country analysis
Presented by: John Lewis, Bank of England
Service sector mark-ups and product market regulation
Presented by: Erik Canton, European Commission, DG ECFIN
MLE for panel count data models with spatio-temporal dynamics: An application to urban crime
Presented by: Jan Vogler, Univsersity of Cologne
Estimating the determinants of growth stability and instability in Sub - Saharan African countries: a Markov Switching Approach
Presented by: Alessandra Marcelletti, University of Rome, Tor Vergata
Session 84: Futures and options June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 MEETING ROOM I
Session Chair: Konstantinos Metaxoglou, Carleton University
Session type: contributed
GARCH Option Pricing Models: Evidence from Joint Likelihood Estimations
Presented by: Ioannis Papantonis, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Option-implied probability distributions: how reliable? how jagged?
Presented by: Marco Taboga, Bank of Italy
Exponential Tilting with Variance Risk Premia: Equity Premium and Oil Prices
Presented by: Konstantinos Metaxoglou, Carleton University
Session 85: Health Economics III June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 MEETING ROOM II
Session Chair: Mathilde GODARD, CREST-Université Paris-Dauphine
Session type: contributed
When Initial Health Matters: Quantile Regression Results of the Effect of Unemployment on Health
Presented by: Valentin Schiele, University of Paderborn
Health Status and Labor Force Participation: Evidence for Urban Low and Middle Income Individuals in Colombia
Presented by: Ligia Melo, Banco de la Republica
The lasting health impact of leaving school in a bad economy : Britons in the 1970s recession.
Presented by: Mathilde GODARD, CREST-Université Paris-Dauphine
Session 86: Business cycle fluctuations June 27, 2015 10:30 to 11:50 MEETING ROOM III
Session Chair: Stephane Lhuissier, CEPII
Session type: contributed
Great Moderation and Great Recession: From plain sailing to stormy seas?
Presented by: Ana Gómez-Loscos, Banco de España
Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño
Presented by: Mehdi Raissi, International Monetary Fund
Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach
Presented by: Paolo Gelain, Norges Bank
The Markov-switching Volatility of Euro Area Business Cycles
Presented by: Stephane Lhuissier, CEPII
Session 87: Advances in Time Series Methodology III June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Martin Wagner, Technische Universität Dortmund
Session type: contributed
SURVEYS AND INFERENCE FOR DYNAMIC ECONOMIES WITH POSSIBLY ENDOGENOUS FRICTIONS
Presented by: Andreas Tryphonides, EUI
Serial Correlation Common Noncausal Features
Presented by: Alain Hecq, Maastricht University
An Integrated Modified OLS RESET Test for Cointegrating Regressions
Presented by: Martin Wagner, Technische Universität Dortmund
Session 88: Panel Data Models with Spatial Dependence June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Natalia Bailey, Queen Mary, University of London
Session type: contributed
Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies
Presented by: Christos Savva, Cyprus University of Technology
NETWORKS AND PRODUCT INNOVATION ACROSS EUROPEAN SMEs
Presented by: Nadine Behncke, University of Göttingen
Estimating Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies with Heterogeneous Panels
Presented by: Marco Hernandez Vega, Banco de Mexico
Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Spatial Models with Heterogeneous Coefficients
Presented by: Natalia Bailey, Queen Mary, University of London
Session 89: Forecasting Inflation June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: PHILIPPE ANDRADE, ECB
Session type: contributed
Forecasting output and inflation with global components. This time is different
Presented by: Leif Anders Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School
Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey
Presented by: Cem Cakmakli, University of Amsterdam
Inflation Risks Measures and Their Informational Content
Presented by: PHILIPPE ANDRADE, ECB
Session 90: Bayesian methods June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Dmitry Kulikov, Eesti Pank
Session type: contributed
Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR
Presented by: Inske Pirschel, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Monte Carlo Evidence on Local Bayesian Likelihood
Presented by: Katerina Petrova, Queen Mary University London
Are Professional Forecasters Bayesian?
Presented by: Sebastiano Manzan, Baruch College, CUNY
Identifying Shocks in Structural VAR Models via Heteroskedasticity: a Bayesian Approach
Presented by: Dmitry Kulikov, Eesti Pank
Session 91: Advances in DSGE Modeling June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Edward Herbst, Federal Reserve Board
Session type: contributed
Foreign Shocks in an Estimated Multi-Sector Model
Presented by: Drago Bergholt, Norges Bank
Exact Inference in DSGE Models
Presented by: Zhenjiang Lin, Carleton University
Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models
Presented by: Luca Fanelli, University of Bologna
Particle MCMC and Sequential Monte Carlo Squared for DSGE Models
Presented by: Edward Herbst, Federal Reserve Board
Session 92: Networks II June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Elena Manresa, MIT Sloan
Session type: contributed
Dynamic Network Formation: Theory and Estimation
Presented by: Terence Johnson, University of Notre Dame
Regulation under Asymmetric Information in Road Transport Networks
Presented by: Jung You, California State University-East Bay
Spillover Effects of Local Human Capital Stock on Adult Obesity: Evidence from German Neighborhoods
Presented by: Rui Dang, Ruhr Graduate School in Economics and RWI
Estimating the structure of social interactions using panel data
Presented by: Elena Manresa, MIT Sloan
Session 93: Labor V June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Naomi Gershoni, Tel Aviv University
Session type: contributed
Heterogeneity, Endogeneity, Measurement Error and Identification of the Union Wage Impact
Presented by: Georgios Chrysanthou, University of Alicante
The Effects of On-the-job and Out-of-Employment Training Programmes on Labour Market Histories
Presented by: Sylvie Blasco, University of Le mans
Unemployment and Electoral Support for Dominant Parties: Not Always their "Achilles Heel"
Presented by: Dimitrios Xefteris, University of Cyprus
The Impact of Extended Reproductive Time Horizons: Evidence from Israel's Expansion of Access to IVF
Presented by: Naomi Gershoni, Tel Aviv University
Session 94: Empirical Micro V June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 “ILIDA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Fatima Kareem, Georg-August University of Goettingen, Germany
Session type: contributed
Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in micro-econometric agricultural production models: a random parameter approach
Presented by: Philippe Koutchade, INRA
On probabilistic expectations and rounding in surveys
Presented by: Fabian GOURET, Université de Cergy-Pontoise
Causal Inference and the Study of International Institutions
Presented by: Rosalba Radice, Birkbeck
Implications of European Union Food Regulations on Developing Countries: Food Safety Standards, Entry Price System and Africa’s Exports
Presented by: Fatima Kareem, Georg-August University of Goettingen, Germany
Session 95: Health Economics IV June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 MEETING ROOM I
Session Chair: Nicola Ciccarelli,
Session type: contributed
Health in Former French West Africa: Main Determinants of Colonial Policies
Presented by: Léa Rouanet, PSE-CREST
Cancelled Procedures in the English NHS: Evidence from a Recent Tariff Reform
Presented by: Ioannis Laliotis, University of Surrey
(Non-Elderly) Health Insurance Coverage, Moral Hazard and Crime
Presented by: Nicola Ciccarelli,
Session 96: Retirement June 27, 2015 12:10 to 13:30 MEETING ROOM II
Session Chair: Xiaodong Fan, University of New South Wales
Session type: contributed
2003 reform of the French public pension scheme: Impact of financial incentives on retirement decision
Presented by: Pierre Gouedard, Sciences Po - LIEPP
Do longevity expectations influence retirement behaviour?
Presented by: Owen O'Donnell, Erasmus University Rotterdam & University of Macedonia
Retirement Savings: A Tale of Decisions and Defaults
Presented by: Xiaodong Fan, University of New South Wales
Session 97: Poster - Theoretical Time Series June 27, 2015 14:15 to 14:45 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session type: poster
Confidence Sets for the Break Date Based on Optimal Tests
Presented by: Eiji Kurozumi, Hitotsubashi University
A Note on the Bartlett Correction Factor for Tests on Cointegrating Relations
Presented by: Alessandra Canepa, Brunel University
Likelihood Ratio Test for Change in Persistence
Presented by: Anton Skrobotov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
New Solutions of the Imbalanced Regressions With Their Applications to Two Finance Puzzles
Presented by: Wanyi Lee, National Tsing Hua University
Point Optimal Testing: A Survey of the Post 1987 Literature
Presented by: Maxwell King, Monash University
Session 98: Poster - Applied Cross Section/Panel June 27, 2015 14:15 to 14:45 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session type: poster
Electricity sector performance: A panel threshold analysis
Presented by: MICHAEL POLEMIS, University of Piraeus
Estimating income elasticities of leisure activities using cross-sectional categorized data
Presented by: Jorge Gonzalez Chapela, Centro Universitario de la Defensa de Zaragoza
Retrieving initial capital distributions from panel data
Presented by: Tatiana Plotnikova, STATEC
The Effects of Dismissal Protection on Wage Tenure Profiles
Presented by: Christine Luecke, Otto von Guericke University
A fixed effects ordered choice model with flexible thresholds
Presented by: Firat Yaman, City University London
Endogeneity in Stochastic Frontier Models: Likelihood Instrumental Variable and Copula Approach When No Additional Data are Available
Presented by: Kien Tran, University of Lethbridge
The well-being of Russian cities: does location matter?
Presented by: Vera Ivanova, NRU Higher School of Economics
Session 99: Poster - Semi and Nonparametric Econometrics June 27, 2015 14:15 to 14:45 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session type: poster
Modeling Heterogeneity by Structural Models with Varying Coefficients
Presented by: Giacomo Benini, Université de Genève
Session 100: Poster - Panel/Cross Section Theory June 27, 2015 14:15 to 14:45 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session type: poster
The flexible Fourier form and panel stationary test with gradual shifts
Presented by: Saban Nazlioglu, Pamukkale University
Session 101: “Discrete Heterogeneity in Econometrics: Some Properties and Applications” by Stephane Bonhomme June 27, 2015 14:50 to 15:50 “VOULA PATOULIDOU” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Jonathan Wright, Johns Hopkins University
Session type: invited
Session 102: Panel Data Models II June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU I” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Arturas Juodis, University of Amsterdam
Session type: contributed
Nonparametric estimation of fixed effects panel data varying coefficient models
Presented by: Alexandra Soberon, Universidad de Cantabria
A Simple Method to Estimate Large Fixed Effects Models Applied to Wage Determinants and Matching
Presented by: Nikolas Mittag, CERGE-EI, Charles University
Some estimators for dynamic panel data sample selection models
Presented by: José Labeaga, UNED
Simplified Estimators for Dynamic Panels with a Multi-factor Error Structure
Presented by: Arturas Juodis, University of Amsterdam
Session 103: Spatial Macro June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “VOULA PATOULIDOU II” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Daniel Soques, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Session type: contributed
Testing for spatial market integration: Evidence for Colombia using a pair-wise approach
Presented by: Ana Iregui, Banco de la Republica
Spatial Clubs in European Regions
Presented by: Lisa Gianmoena, University of Pisa
Business Cycles Across Space and Time
Presented by: Daniel Soques, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Session 104: Spatial Econometrics June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA A” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Renata Rabovic, Tilburg University
Session type: contributed
Testing for Unit Roots in Panels with Structural Changes, Spatial and Temporal Dependence when the Time Dimension is Finite
Presented by: Yiannis Karavias, University of Nottingham
Indirect Inference in Spatial Autoregression
Presented by: Maria Kyriacou, University of Southampton
Partial Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Spatial Sample Selection Models
Presented by: Renata Rabovic, Tilburg University
Session 105: Financial frictions June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA B” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Benjamin Beckers, DIW Berlin
Session type: contributed
Capital regulation and macroeconomic activity
Presented by: Roland Meeks, Bank of England
Heterogeneous Agents, the Financial Crisis and Exchange Rate Predictability
Presented by: Daniel Buncic, University of St. Gallen
Corporate investment and bank-dependent borrowers during the recent financial crisis
Presented by: Philip Vermeulen, ECB
The real-time predictive content of asset price bubbles for macro forecasts
Presented by: Benjamin Beckers, DIW Berlin
Session 106: Noise, News and Sentiment Shocks June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA C” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Zeno Enders, University of Heidelberg
Session type: contributed
Identifying Noise Shocks: a VAR with Data Revisions
Presented by: Riccardo Maria Masolo, Bank of England
Sentiments in the Times of Crisis
Presented by: Antonio Conti, Bank of Italy
Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
Presented by: Zeno Enders, University of Heidelberg
Session 107: Banking June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “OLYMPIA D” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Maximilian Podstawski, DIW Berlin
Session type: contributed
Interconnectedness in the Interbank Market
Presented by: Celso Brunetti, Federal Reserve Board
Validating the use of the stochastic frontier model to estimate borrowing constraints from loan samples
Presented by: Risto Herrala, European Central Bank
Are Banks in more Concentrated Markets less Stable? Evidence from the EU-25.
Presented by: Pieter IJtsma, University of Groningen
The State Dependent Impact of Bank Exposure on Sovereign Risk
Presented by: Maximilian Podstawski, DIW Berlin
Session 108: Yield Curve II June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “KALLIPATIRA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Guillaume Horny, Banque de France
Session type: contributed
The UK Term Structure at the Zero Lower Bound
Presented by: Sarah Mouabbi, Banque de France
Declining discount rates and the ‘Fisher Effect’: Inflated past, discounted future?
Presented by: Ekaterini Panopoulou, University of Kent
Cross-Country Co-movement in Long-Term Interest Rates: A DSGE Approach
Presented by: Thomai Filippeli, Queen Mary University of London
Measuring Financial Fragmentation in the Euro area Corporate Bond Market
Presented by: Guillaume Horny, Banque de France
Session 109: Time varying parameters II June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 “ILIDA” Lecture Theatre
Session Chair: Davide Delle Monache, Bank of Italy
Session type: contributed
A unified theory for time varying models: foundations with applications in the presence of breaks and heteroscedasticity
Presented by: Menelaos Karanasos, Brunel University
Large Time-Varying Parameter VAR: a nonparametric approach
Presented by: Fabrizio Venditti, Banca d'Italia
Testing for misspecification in GARCH-type models
Presented by: Thomas Chuffart, Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille
Common faith or parting ways? A time varying parameters factor analysis of euro area inflation
Presented by: Davide Delle Monache, Bank of Italy
Session 110: Estimation II June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 MEETING ROOM I
Session Chair: Xu Cheng, University of Pennsylvania
Session type: contributed
Modelling reporting behaviour and mis-classification: An application to illegal drug consumption
Presented by: Preety Srivastava, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology
Mostly Harmless Simulations? On the Internal Validity of Empirical Monte Carlo Studies
Presented by: Tymon Słoczyński, Warsaw School of Economics
Uniform Asymptotic Risk of Averaging GMM Estimator Robust to Misspeci cation
Presented by: Xu Cheng, University of Pennsylvania
Session 111: Education II June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 MEETING ROOM II
Session Chair: Santiago Pereda-Fernández, Banca d'Italia
Session type: contributed
Knowing who you are: The effect of feedback information on exam placement
Presented by: Rigissa Megalokonomou, University of Warwick
High Performance Work Practices, Hierarchical Ordering of Competencies and Educational Mismatch: The Effects on Competency Creation and Destruction
Presented by: Riccardo Leoni, University of Bergamo
Does Higher Education Cause Political Participation?: Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design
Presented by: Alex Solis, Uppsala University
Teachers and Cheaters. Just an Anagram?
Presented by: Santiago Pereda-Fernández, Banca d'Italia
Session 112: Exchange Rates June 27, 2015 16:10 to 17:30 MEETING ROOM III
Session Chair: Ronald MacDonald, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow
Session type: contributed
Currency Carry Trades, Position-Unwinding Risk, and Sovereign Credit Premia
Presented by: Huichou Huang, University of Glasgow
Trade margins and exchange rate regimes: new evidence from a Panel VARX model
Presented by: Stefano d'Addona, University of Rome 3
Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates
Presented by: Emerson Marçal, CEMAP-EESP-FGV and CSSA-Mackenzie
The Term Structure of Exchange Rate Predictability: A Tale of Two Scopes
Presented by: Ronald MacDonald, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow