32nd Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics

Summary of All Sessions
Click here for an index of all participants

Date/Time	Title/Location	Papers
March 21, 2025 13:00-14:40	A1: Empirical Macro 1     Location:	4
March 21, 2025 13:00-14:40	A2: Monetary Policy 1     Location: DB 2.302	4
March 21, 2025 13:00-14:40	A3: Time Series 1     Location: DB 2.304	4
March 21, 2025 13:00-14:40	A4: Macro Theory 1     Location: DB 3.206	4
March 21, 2025 13:00-14:40	A5: Macroeconomics 1     Location: DB 3.208	3
March 21, 2025 13:00-14:40	A6: Macro-finance 1     Location: DB 3.214	5
March 21, 2025 13:00-14:40	A7: Finance     Location: DB 3.218	4
March 21, 2025 15:10-16:50	B1: Empirical Macro 2     Location: DB 2.206	4
March 21, 2025 15:10-16:50	B2: Monetary Policy 2     Location: DB 2.302	4
March 21, 2025 15:10-16:50	B3: Time Series 2     Location: DB 2.304	5
March 21, 2025 15:10-16:50	B4: Macro Theory 2     Location: DB 3.206	4
March 21, 2025 15:10-16:50	B5: Forecasting 1     Location: DB 3.208	4
March 21, 2025 15:10-16:50	B6: Climate Change     Location: DB 3.214	4
March 21, 2025 15:10-16:50	B7: Inflation 1     Location: DB 3.218	4
March 21, 2025 17:30-18:30	Keynote 1: "The New Causal Macroeconomics of Expectations and Decisions," presented by Olivier Coibion, UT Austin     Location: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - San Antonio Branch	0
March 22, 2025 9:00-10:40	C1: Empirical Macro 3 & Inflation 3     Location: DB 2.206	4
March 22, 2025 9:00-10:40	C2: Monetary Policy 3     Location: DB 2.302	4
March 22, 2025 9:00-10:40	C3: Time Series 3     Location: DB 2.304	4
March 22, 2025 9:00-10:40	C4: Macro Theory 3     Location: DB 3.206	4
March 22, 2025 9:00-10:40	C5: Macroeconomics 2     Location: DB 3.208	4
March 22, 2025 9:00-10:40	C6: Macro-finance 2     Location: DB 3.214	4
March 22, 2025 9:00-10:40	C7: Inflation 2     Location: DB 3.218	4
March 22, 2025 11:10-12:50	D1: Empirical Macro 4     Location: DB 2.206	4
March 22, 2025 11:10-12:50	D2: Monetary Policy 4     Location: DB 2.302	4
March 22, 2025 11:10-12:50	D3: Time Series 4     Location: DB 2.304	4
March 22, 2025 11:10-12:50	D4: Macro Theory 4     Location: DB 3.206	3
March 22, 2025 11:10-12:50	D5: Forecasting 2     Location: DB 3.208	4
March 22, 2025 11:10-12:50	D6: Macro-finance 3     Location: DB 3.214	4
March 22, 2025 11:10-12:50	D7: Applied Economics     Location: DB 3.218	4
March 22, 2025 12:50-15:00	Keynote 2: "The Past, Present, and Future of the Fed Information Effect," presented by Eric Swanson (UC Irvine) & Lunch     Location: Riverwalk	0
March 22, 2025 15:00-16:40	E1: Empirical Macro 5     Location: DB 2.206	3
March 22, 2025 15:00-16:40	E2: Monetary Policy 5     Location: DB 2.302	4
March 22, 2025 15:00-16:40	E3: Regional Research     Location: DB 2.304	3
March 22, 2025 15:00-16:40	E4: Macro Theory 5     Location: DB 3.206	3
March 22, 2025 15:00-16:40	E5: Macroeconomics 3     Location: DB 3.208	3
March 22, 2025 15:00-16:40	E6: Energy Economics     Location: DB 3.214	4
March 22, 2025 15:00-16:15	E7: Inflation 3 THESE PAPERS WILL BE PRESENTED IN C1     Location: DB 3.218	0

 

37 sessions, 132 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers

32nd Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
Detailed List of Sessions

Session: A1: Empirical Macro 1 March 21, 2025 13:00 to 14:40
Session Chair: Tatevik Sekhposyan, Texas A&M University
How Important is Global R-Star for Open Economies?
By James Morley; University of Sydney Benjamin Wong; Monash University
presented by: James Morley, University of Sydney
A Tale of Procyclical Inequality: facts and Implications
By Drago Bergholt; Norges Bank Research Francesco Furlanetto; Norges Bank Lorenzo Mori; University of Padova
presented by: Francesco Furlanetto, Norges Bank
Non-Gaussian Business Cycles
By Andrzej Kociecki; University of Warsaw Christian Matthes; Indiana University Michele Piffer; King's College London
presented by: Michele Piffer, King's College London
The Relevance of Temporal Aggregation for the Propagation of Macroeconomic Shocks
By Yeon Jik Lee; Texas A&M University Tatevik Sekhposyan; Texas A&M University
presented by: Tatevik Sekhposyan, Texas A&M University
Session: A2: Monetary Policy 1 March 21, 2025 13:00 to 14:40 Location: DB 2.302
Session Chair: Jun Ma, Northeastern University
Heterogeneity in Labor Market Response to Monetary Policy: Small Versus Large Firms
By Aarti Singh; University of Sydney, Jacek Suda; SGH and Narodowy Bank Polski Anastasia Zervou; UT San Antonio
presented by: Anastasia Zervou, UT San Antonio
Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks in Unstable Environments
By William Ginn; LABCORP Jamel Saadaoui; University Paris 8
presented by: Jamel Saadaoui, University Paris 8
Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect the Neutral Rate of Interest?
By Danilo Leiva-Leon; European Central Bank Rodrigo Sekkel; Bank of Canada Luis Uzeda; Bank of Canada
presented by: Rodrigo Sekkel, Bank of Canada
Evaluating the Effects of the Federal Reserve's Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies Using a Shadow Rate Affine Term Structure Model
By Yang Han; University of International Business and Economics Jun Ma; Northeastern University
presented by: Jun Ma, Northeastern University
Session: A3: Time Series 1 March 21, 2025 13:00 to 14:40 Location: DB 2.304
Session Chair: Gabriela Galassi, Bank of Canada
Twin Deficits, Capacity Utilization, and Long-term Unemployment: A Nonlinear Analysis
By Haydory Ahmed; St. Edward's University
presented by: Haydory Ahmed, St. Edward's University
The Identification Problem for Linear Rational Expectations Models
By Majid Al Sadoon; Durham University Business School
presented by: Majid Al Sadoon, Durham University Business School
The Persistence of Local Employment
By Thorsten Drautzburg; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Simon Freyaldenhoven; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Bryan Stuart; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
presented by: Thorsten Drautzburg, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
From Online Job Postings to Economic Insights: A New Real-Time Data for the Canadian Labor Market
By Tatjana Dahlhaus; Bank of Canada Reinhard Ellwanger; Bank of Canada Gabriela Galassi; Bank of Canada Pierre-Yves Yanni; ESG, Université du Québec à Montréal
presented by: Gabriela Galassi, Bank of Canada
Session: A4: Macro Theory 1 March 21, 2025 13:00 to 14:40 Location: DB 3.206
Session Chair: Saroj Bhattarai, University of Texas at Austin
Monetary Policy Normalization in the New Normal: The Role of Quantitative Tightening
By Martin Arazi; Washington University in St. Louis
presented by: Martin Arazi, Washington University in St. Louis
Time Use and Consumption Expenditures
By Stefano Gnocchi; Bank of Canada
presented by: Stefano Gnocchi, Bank of Canada
Asymmetric Liquidity Risk, Credit Market Activity, and the Effects of Monetary Policy
By Edgar Ghossoub; University of Texas at San Antonio Robert Reed; University of Alabama Cuiyi Zhang; University of Alabama
presented by: Edgar Ghossoub, University of Texas at San Antonio
Welfare Cost of Inflation in Production Networks
By Hassan Afrouzi; Columbia University Saroj Bhattarai; University of Texas at Austin Edson Wu; UT Austin
presented by: Saroj Bhattarai, University of Texas at Austin
Session: A5: Macroeconomics 1 March 21, 2025 13:00 to 14:40 Location: DB 3.208
Session Chair: Kyle Rechard, Bristol Myers Squibb
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
By Xiaoqing Zhou; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
presented by: Xiaoqing Zhou, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
The Internal Structure of Macroeconomic Machine Learning Models
By Thomas Cook; Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Nathan Palmer; Federal Reserve Board of Governors
presented by: Nathan Palmer, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Did Covid-19 Revive Ricardian Equivalence?: Evidence from U.S. Fiscal Policy Shocks and Stock Prices}
By Kyle Rechard; Bristol Myers Squibb
presented by: Kyle Rechard, Bristol Myers Squibb
Session: A6: Macro-finance 1 March 21, 2025 13:00 to 14:40 Location: DB 3.214
Session Chair: Camilo Granados, University of Texas at Dallas
ECB Communication and its Impact on Financial Markets
By Klodiana Istrefi; Banque de France and CEPR Florens Odendahl; Banco de España Giulia Sestieri; Banque de France
presented by: Florens Odendahl, Banco de España
Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of U.S. Corporate and Personal Income Taxes
By Daniela Hauser; Bank of Canada
presented by: Daniela Hauser, Bank of Canada
Financial Deepening, Investment Producers, and the Great Moderation
By Cooper Howes; Federal Reserve Board Neil White; Amherst College
presented by: Cooper Howes, Federal Reserve Board
International Spillovers of U.S. and U.K. Monetary Policy
By Saroj Bhattarai; University of Texas at Austin Arpita Chatterjee; Federal Reserve Board & UNSW Woong Yong Park; Seoul National University
presented by: Arpita Chatterjee, Federal Reserve Board
Dissecting Capital Flows: Do Capital Controls Shield Against Foreign Shocks?
By Camilo Granados; University of Texas at Dallas Kyongjun Kwak; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
presented by: Camilo Granados, University of Texas at Dallas
Session: A7: Finance March 21, 2025 13:00 to 14:40 Location: DB 3.218
Session Chair: Yunjong Eo, Korea University
Optimizing Portfolios Through ESG Risk Budgeting
By Runfeng Yang; Ca' Foscari University of Venice Massimiliano Caporin; University of Padova Sandra Paterlini; Università di Trento Monica Billio; Ca' Foscari University of Venice
presented by: Massimiliano Caporin, University of Padova
Multinationals and Uncertainty: The Role of Internal Capital Markets
By Jianlin Wang; Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University
presented by: Jianlin Wang, Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University
International Financial Integration, Economic Growth and Threshold Effects: Some Panel Evidence
By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Brunel University London
presented by: Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Brunel University London
The Recession Shapes of Regional Evolution
By Hie Joo Ahn; Federal Reserve Board Yunjong Eo; Korea University
presented by: Yunjong Eo, Korea University
Session: B1: Empirical Macro 2 March 21, 2025 15:10 to 16:50 Location: DB 2.206
Session Chair: Domenico Giannone, University of Washington
Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap
By Matteo Barigozzi; Universita di Bologna Claudio Lissona; University of Bologna Matteo Luciani; Federal Reserve Board
presented by: Matteo Luciani, Federal Reserve Board
Global Financial Tail Connectedness
By Javier Ojea Ferreiro; Bank of Canada
presented by: Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Bank of Canada
Perfect Recession Predictors
By Anthony Diercks; Federal Reserve Board Daniel Soques; University of North Carolina Wilmington Jing Cynthia Wu; University of Illinois and NBER
presented by: Daniel Soques, University of North Carolina Wilmington
Recessions, Economic and Financial Conditions
By Francesco Furno; Amazon Web Services Domenico Giannone; University of Washington
presented by: Domenico Giannone, University of Washington
Session: B2: Monetary Policy 2 March 21, 2025 15:10 to 16:50 Location: DB 2.302
Session Chair: Kiyea Jin, University of California, Berkeley
Zooming in on Phillips Curve and Estimating NAIRU for Subgroups of Civilian Population
By Jing Li; Miami University
presented by: Jing Li, Miami University
Inflation Uncertainty from Firms’ Perspective, Overconfidence and Credibility of Monetary Policy
By Fernando Borraz; dECON - FCS - UdelaR Anna Orlik; Federal Reserve Board of Governors Laura Zacheo; Banco Central del Uruguay
presented by: Fernando Borraz, dECON - FCS - UdelaR
Monetary Policy Communication Strategies: Assessing the Effects of Monetary Policy Path Variations
By Neville Francis; UNC Chapel Hill Jonghyuck Lim; The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Michael Owyang; Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
presented by: Jonghyuck Lim, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Taylor Rule Asymmetries
By Kiyea Jin; University of California, Berkeley Anastasia Zervou; UT San Antonio
presented by: Kiyea Jin, University of California, Berkeley
Session: B3: Time Series 2 March 21, 2025 15:10 to 16:50 Location: DB 2.304
Session Chair: Menelaos Karanasos, Brunel University London
Time-varying Smooth Transition Scalar BEKK with Covariance Targeting
By Bilel Sanhaji; Université Paris 8, LED
presented by: Bilel Sanhaji, Université Paris 8, LED
Nonparametric Local Projections
By Silvia Goncalves; McGill University Ana Maria Herrera; University of Kentucky Lutz Kilian; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Elena Pesavento; Emory University
presented by: Elena Pesavento, Emory University
Semiparametric Estimation of Volatility in the Presence of Intraday Drift Dynamics
By Giuseppe Buccheri; University of Verona Giorgio Vocalelli; University of Verona
presented by: Giuseppe Buccheri, University of Verona
Differences from Differencing: Should Local Projections with Observed Shocks be Estimated in Levels or Differences?
By Jeremy Piger; University of Oregon
presented by: Jeremy Piger, University of Oregon
Matrix-valued Determinants and a Unified Theory for Vector ARMA Models with Variable Coefficient Matrices
By Menelaos Karanasos; Brunel University London
presented by: Menelaos Karanasos, Brunel University London
Session: B4: Macro Theory 2 March 21, 2025 15:10 to 16:50 Location: DB 3.206
Session Chair: Thomas Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Asymmetric Financial Regulation and International Portfolio Choice
By James Staveley-O'Carroll; Babson College Olena Staveley-O'Carroll; College of the Holy Cross
presented by: James Staveley-O'Carroll, Babson College
Debt Indexation and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
By Tobias Kawalec; University of Oxford
presented by: Tobias Kawalec, University of Oxford
Financial System Procyclicality and Capital Requirement Policy: Revisiting Countercyclical Responses
By Denny Lie; The University of Sydney
presented by: Denny Lie, The University of Sydney
A Financial New Keynesian Model
By Thomas Mertens; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
presented by: Thomas Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Session: B5: Forecasting 1 March 21, 2025 15:10 to 16:50 Location: DB 3.208
Session Chair: Ana Beatriz Galvao, Bloomberg Economics, U of Warwick
Forecasting Natural Gas Prices in Real Time
By Francesco Ravazzolo; Libera Università di Bolzano
presented by: Francesco Ravazzolo, Libera Università di Bolzano
Public Perceptions of Forecast Uncertainty Visualizations: Some Household Survey Evidence
By Edda Claus; Wilfrid Laurier University Markus Hahn; Australian National University Shaun Vahey; University of Warwick
presented by: Edda Claus, Wilfrid Laurier University
When Growth-at-Risk Hits the Fan: Comparing Quantile-Regression Predictive Densities with Committee Fan Charts
By Giulia Mantoan; Bank of England
presented by: Giulia Mantoan, Bank of England
GDP Nowcasting with Expectations and Data News
By Ana Beatriz Galvao; Bloomberg Economics, U of Warwick
presented by: Ana Beatriz Galvao, Bloomberg Economics, U of Warwick
Session: B6: Climate Change March 21, 2025 15:10 to 16:50 Location: DB 3.214
Session Chair: Kevin Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Climate Change Uncertainty and Corporate Debt Relationship: A Quantile Panel Data Analysis
By Fredj Jawadi; University of Lille
presented by: Fredj Jawadi, University of Lille
Polar Amplification Helps Forecast Northern Temperature Anomalies
By William Brock; University of Wisconsin, Madison J. Isaac Miller; University of Missouri
presented by: J. Isaac Miller, University of Missouri
Severe Weather and Financial (In)stability
By Paolo Gelain; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Claudia Foroni; ECB Marco Lorusso; Newcastle University Business School Massimiliano Marcellino; Bocconi University
presented by: Paolo Gelain, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
A Simple Time Series Model of Shifting Temperature Anomaly Distributions
By Kevin Lansing; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
presented by: Kevin Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Session: B7: Inflation 1 March 21, 2025 15:10 to 16:50 Location: DB 3.218
Session Chair: Enrique Martinez-Garcia, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Inflation Distribution and Inflation Risk
By Sara Boni; Free University of Bolzano
presented by: Sara Boni, Free University of Bolzano
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges
By Oliver Pfäuti; The University of Texas at Austin
presented by: Oliver Pfäuti, The University of Texas at Austin
The Taming of the Skew: Asymmetric Inflation Risk and Monetary Policy
By Andrea De Polis; University of Strathclyde Leonardo Melosi; University of Warwick Ivan Petrella; University of Warwick
presented by: Andrea De Polis, University of Strathclyde
Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study
By Enrique Martinez-Garcia; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Roberto Duncan; Ohio University Patricia Toledo; Ohio University
presented by: Enrique Martinez-Garcia, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Session: Keynote 1: "The New Causal Macroeconomics of Expectations and Decisions," presented by Olivier Coibion, UT Austin March 21, 2025 17:30 to 18:30 Location: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - San Antonio Branch
Session: C1: Empirical Macro 3 & Inflation 3 March 22, 2025 9:00 to 10:40 Location: DB 2.206
Session Chair: Marija Vukotic, University of Warwick
Inflation and the Gender Wage Gap: The Role of Belief Frictions for Wage Bargaining
By Lovisa Reiche; University of Oxford Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli; Norges Bank
presented by: Lovisa Reiche, University of Oxford
Innovation During Challenging Times: Effects of Patent-based Innovation Shocks Across the Business Cycle
By Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia; Federal Reserve Board Marija Vukotic; University of Warwick Sarah Zubairy; Texas A&M University
presented by: Marija Vukotic, University of Warwick
Inflationary Supply Chain Disruptions: Time-Varying and Cross-Country Evidence
By Sebastian Laumer; University of North Carolina, Greensboro Huachen Li; Kenyon College
presented by: Sebastian Laumer, University of North Carolina, Greensboro
Impact of Inflation on Time Use of Individuals
By Jalal Bagherzadeh; Texas Tech University
presented by: Jalal Bagherzadeh, Texas Tech University
Session: C2: Monetary Policy 3 March 22, 2025 9:00 to 10:40 Location: DB 2.302
Session Chair: Ruoyun Mao, University of Arkansas
Behavioral Expectations in Nonlinear DSGE Models
By Junior Maih; Norges Bank Christian Matthes; Indiana University
presented by: Junior Maih, Norges Bank
Macroeconomic Impact of Shifting in Long-term Inflation Expectations
By Shogo Nakano; Bank of Japan
presented by: Shogo Nakano, Bank of Japan
Unemployment and the State-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy
By Eva Janssens; University of Michigan Sean McCrary; Ohio State University
presented by: Sean McCrary, Ohio State University
What Can We Learn about Inflation from a Regime Switching Model?
By Chaojun Li; East China Normal University Ruoyun Mao; University of Arkansas Shi Qiu; Fudan University
presented by: Ruoyun Mao, University of Arkansas
Session: C3: Time Series 3 March 22, 2025 9:00 to 10:40 Location: DB 2.304
Session Chair: Elias Wolf, University of Bonn
Flexible Priors and Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions
By Christiane Baumeister; University of Notre Dame Francesca Loria; Federal Reserve Board Junior Maih; Norges Bank
presented by: Francesca Loria, Federal Reserve Board
Restricted Bayesian Local Projections
By Eva Janssens; University of Michigan
presented by: Eva Janssens, University of Michigan
Local Asymptotic Minimax Inference for Set-Identified Impulse Responses
By Bonsoo Koo; Monash University Seojeong Lee; Seoul National University MyungHwan Seo; Seoul National University Masaya Takano; Monash University
presented by: Bonsoo Koo, Monash University
Tempered Particle Smoothing and Learning
By Elias Wolf; University of Bonn
presented by: Elias Wolf, University of Bonn
Session: C4: Macro Theory 3 March 22, 2025 9:00 to 10:40 Location: DB 3.206
Session Chair: Sergio Villalvazo, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Entry, Unemployment, and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks
By Gregory Givens; University of Alabama
presented by: Gregory Givens, University of Alabama
Changes in Central Bank Leadership and Inflation Dynamics
By Richard Higgins; Colgate University Irfan Qureshi; Asian Development Bank
presented by: Richard Higgins, Colgate University
Firm Size and the Irrelevance of Strategic Complementarity for Inflation Dynamics
By Takushi Kurozumi; Bank of Japan Willem Van Zandweghe; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
presented by: Willem Van Zandweghe, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Nonlinear Effects of Loan-to-Value Constraints
By Bora Durdu; Federal Reserve Board Sergio Villalvazo; Federal Reserve Board of Governors
presented by: Sergio Villalvazo, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Session: C5: Macroeconomics 2 March 22, 2025 9:00 to 10:40 Location: DB 3.208
Session Chair: Emanuele Franceschi, ECB
Central Bank Transparency Under Adaptive Learning
By Carolina Acuña Armenta; Marquette University
presented by: Carolina Acuña Armenta, Marquette University
News and Firms' Expectations
By Ha Bui; Grinnell College
presented by: Ha Bui, Grinnell College
Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data
By Lukas Hack; ETH Zürich / University of Mannheim Davud Rostam-Afschar; University of Mannheim
presented by: Davud Rostam-Afschar, University of Mannheim
Cast Out the Pure? Inflation and Relative Prices on Both Sides of the Atlantic
By Emanuele Franceschi; ECB Chiara Osbat; European Central Bank Miles Parker; European Central Bank
presented by: Emanuele Franceschi, ECB
Session: C6: Macro-finance 2 March 22, 2025 9:00 to 10:40 Location: DB 3.214
Session Chair: Lars Kranzmann, University of Muenster
Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations: The Role of Investing Households
By Taewon Hwang; Texas A&M University
presented by: Taewon Hwang, Texas A&M University
GDP Impacts of Natural Disaster across Canada: The Role of Fiscal Capacity
By Tatjana Dahlhaus; Bank of Canada
presented by: Tatjana Dahlhaus, Bank of Canada
A New Approach to Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Market Models
By Jui-Chuan Della Chang; National Chiayi University, Taiwan Dennis Jansen; Texas A&M University Carolina Pagliacci; IESA Business School
presented by: Dennis Jansen, Texas A&M University
The Financial Instability – Monetary Policy Nexus: Evidence from the FOMC Minutes
By Dimitrios Kanelis; Deutsche Bundesbank Lars Kranzmann; University of Muenster Pierre Siklos; Wilfrid Laurier University
presented by: Lars Kranzmann, University of Muenster
Session: C7: Inflation 2 March 22, 2025 9:00 to 10:40 Location: DB 3.218
Session Chair: Michael Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
DK Responses in Surveys on Inflation Expectations
By Natsuki Arai; Gettysburg College Biing-Shen Kuo; National Chengchi University Yasutomo Murasawa; Konan University
presented by: Yasutomo Murasawa, Konan University
Five Facts About Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Four Different Groups of Agents
By Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli; Norges Bank
presented by: Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, Norges Bank
Inflation Expectations and Surprise Inflation
By Arsenios Skaperdas; Federal Reserve Board
presented by: Arsenios Skaperdas, Federal Reserve Board
Policy, Expectations, and Anchoring
By Laura Jackson Young; Bentley University Michael Owyang; Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
presented by: Michael Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Session: D1: Empirical Macro 4 March 22, 2025 11:10 to 12:50 Location: DB 2.206
Session Chair: Sarah Zubairy, Texas A&M University
What Do 12 Billion Card Transactions Say About House Prices and Consumption?
By Knut Are Aastveit; Norges Bank Jesper Böjeryd; Stockholm University Magnus Gulbrandsen; Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) Ragnar Juelsrud; Norges Bank Kasper Roszbach; Norges Bank
presented by: Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank
Lessons from the Co-movement of Inflation around the World
By Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia; Federal Reserve Board Luca Guerrieri; Federal Reserve Board Matteo Iacoviello; Federal Reserve Board Michele Modugno; Federal Reserve Board
presented by: Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Federal Reserve Board
The Evolution of Macroeconomic Ideas, Ideologies, and Aggregate Implications
By Fabio Milani; University of California, Irvine
presented by: Fabio Milani, University of California, Irvine
Treasury Supply Shocks: Volume Expansion and Maturity Extension
By Huixin Bi; Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Maxime Phillot; University of Lausanne Sarah Zubairy; Texas A&M University
presented by: Sarah Zubairy, Texas A&M University
Session: D2: Monetary Policy 4 March 22, 2025 11:10 to 12:50 Location: DB 2.302
Session Chair: Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni, Sapienza University of Rome
Disentangling Structural Breaks in Factor Models for Macroeconomic Data
By Bonsoo Koo; Monash University Benjamin Wong; Monash University ze-yu zhong; Monash University
presented by: Benjamin Wong, Monash University
Estimated Output Gap in a Wage-Inflation Expectations Model
By Prajyna barua; university of texas dallas Azharul Islam; University of Texas at Dallas Irina Panovska; University of Texas at Dallas Srikanth Ramamurthy; International Monetary Fund
presented by: Irina Panovska, University of Texas at Dallas
Perceived Monetary Policy Transmission
By Ramisha Asghar; Bank of Canada Monica Jain; Bank of Canada
presented by: Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
Belief distortions and Disagreement about Inflation
By Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni; Sapienza University of Rome Valeria Patella; Sapienza University Rome
presented by: Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni, Sapienza University of Rome
Session: D3: Time Series 4 March 22, 2025 11:10 to 12:50 Location: DB 2.304
Session Chair: Lluc Puig Codina, University of Alicante
Analysis of Global Yield Curve Using Functional Factor Model with Tensor Structure
By Yoosoon Chang; Indiana University Sangmyung Ha; Indiana University Joon Park; Indiana University
presented by: Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University
From Rotational to Scalar Invariance: Enhancing Identifiability in Score-driven Factor Models
By Giuseppe Buccheri; University of Verona Fulvio Corsi; University of Pisa Emilija Dzuverovic; University of Pisa
presented by: Emilija Dzuverovic, University of Pisa
Euro Area Output Gaps and the Transmission of Common Monetary Policy
By Sebastian Hienzsch; University of Göttingen
presented by: Sebastian Hienzsch, University of Göttingen
Extended Tests for the Correct Specification of Conditional Predictive Densities
By Gergely Ganics; Bank of Spain Lluc Puig Codina; University of Alicante
presented by: Lluc Puig Codina, University of Alicante
Session: D4: Macro Theory 4 March 22, 2025 11:10 to 12:50 Location: DB 3.206
Session Chair: Rosemary Kaiser, Rutgers University
Nonlinearities in Production Network Economies with Distortions
By Alejandro Rojas Bernal; University of Hawai'i at Manoa
presented by: Alejandro Rojas Bernal, University of Hawai'i at Manoa
Solving and Analyzing DSGE Models in the Frequency Domain
By Alexander Meyer-Gohde; Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
presented by: Alexander Meyer-Gohde, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
A Quantitative Theory of Domestic Outsourcing: The Role of Wage-Proportional Staffing Fees
By Rosemary Kaiser; Rutgers University
presented by: Rosemary Kaiser, Rutgers University
Session: D5: Forecasting 2 March 22, 2025 11:10 to 12:50 Location: DB 3.208
Session Chair: REHIM KILIC, FRB
Biased Signals? The Effectiveness of Stock Market Indices as Leading Economic Indicators
By Anne Hansen; Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
presented by: Anne Hansen, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Forecast Combination and Interpretability Using Random Subspace
By Boris Kozyrev; Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
presented by: Boris Kozyrev, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
A Level-Set Method for Multiple-Output Panel Quantiles
By Annika Camehl; Erasmus University Rotterdam Kathrin Gruber; Erasmus University Rotterdam
presented by: Annika Camehl, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Linear and Nonlinear Econometric Models Against Machine Learning Models: Realized Volatility Prediction
By REHIM KILIC; FRB
presented by: REHIM KILIC, FRB
Session: D6: Macro-finance 3 March 22, 2025 11:10 to 12:50 Location: DB 3.214
Session Chair: Andrew Martinez, U.S. Department of Treasury
The Role of Foreign and Local Investors in the Derivatives Market and their Impact on the Exchange Rate in Colombia: A Wavelet Analysis
By Fredy Gamboa-Estrada; Banco de la Republica
presented by: Fredy Gamboa-Estrada, Bank for International Settlements
Time-Varying Loan Puzzles
By Huachen Li; Kenyon College Tiezheng Song; Citigroup
presented by: Huachen Li, Kenyon College
Transmission Growth-at-Risk
By Sai Ma; Federal Reserve Board Vikors Stebunovs; Federal Reserve Board Judit Temesvary; Federal Reserve Board
presented by: Sai Ma, Federal Reserve Board
House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks
By William Larson; Federal Housing Finance Agency Andrew Martinez; U.S. Department of Treasury
presented by: Andrew Martinez, U.S. Department of Treasury
Session: D7: Applied Economics March 22, 2025 11:10 to 12:50 Location: DB 3.218
Session Chair: Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, Federal Reserve Board
Firm-level Productivity and Demand Shocks in Imperfectly Competitive Labor Markets: Implications for Wage Dynamics
By Micole De Vera; Banco de España
presented by: Micole De Vera, Banco de España
Democracy Does Cause Growth, at Times
By Saeed Khodaverdian; University of Hamburg
presented by: Saeed Khodaverdian, University of Hamburg
External Shocks and Wage Adjustment: A Network Approach
By Kanat Isakov; University of Maryland Leonardo Bonilla; Banco de la República
presented by: Kanat Isakov, University of Maryland
How Were Extra Benefits Spent?
By Sinem Hacioglu Hoke; Federal Reserve Board
presented by: Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, Federal Reserve Board
Session: Keynote 2: "The Past, Present, and Future of the Fed Information Effect," presented by Eric Swanson (UC Irvine) & Lunch March 22, 2025 12:50 to 15:00 Location: Riverwalk
Session Chair: Anastasia Zervou, UT San Antonio
Session: E1: Empirical Macro 5 March 22, 2025 15:00 to 16:40 Location: DB 2.206
Session Chair: Eleonora Granziera, Norges Bank
The Time Varying Effects of Oil News Shocks
By Ana Maria Herrera; University of Kentucky Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju; Weber State University
presented by: Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju, Weber State University
Sentiments and Aggregate Consumption: Evidence from a Multivariate Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition
By Tino Berger; University of Goettingen
presented by: Tino Berger, University of Goettingen
When People Don't Believe the Inflation Target
By SeHyoun Ahn; Norges Bank Eleonora Granziera; Norges Bank
presented by: Eleonora Granziera, Norges Bank
Session: E2: Monetary Policy 5 March 22, 2025 15:00 to 16:40 Location: DB 2.302
Session Chair: Lukas Hack, ETH Zürich / University of Mannheim
Capital Inflow Shocks and Monetary Policy Autonomy
By Nadav Ben Zeev; Ben Gurion University Noam Ben-Ze'ev; Ben Gurion University and Bank of Israel Daniel Nathan; Bank of Israel
presented by: Noam Ben-Ze'ev, Ben Gurion University and Bank of Israel
Assessing the Long-Term Impacts of Monetary Policy
By Shunsuke Haba; Bank of Japan
presented by: Shunsuke Haba, Bank of Japan
Corporate Tax Reforms and The Investment Channel of Monetary Policy
By Gonzalo Basante Pereira; University of New Hampshire Ezgi Kurt; Bentley University
presented by: Ezgi Kurt, Bentley University
The Systematic Origins of Monetary Policy Shocks
By Lukas Hack; ETH Zürich / University of Mannheim Klodiana Istrefi; Banque de France and CEPR Matthias Meier; University of Mannheim
presented by: Lukas Hack, ETH Zürich / University of Mannheim
Session: E3: Regional Research March 22, 2025 15:00 to 16:40 Location: DB 2.304
Session Chair: Jonas Hölz, BI Norwegian Business School
Effects of a Marginal Tax Rate Shock : Role of Nominal Wage Rigidity
By Yeon Jik Lee; Texas A&M University
presented by: Yeon Jik Lee, Texas A&M University
A Restricted Factor-Augmented VAR for Regional Analysis
By Laura Jackson Young; Bentley University Michael Owyang; Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
presented by: Laura Jackson Young, Bentley University
The Non-Linear Transmission of Monetary Policy to Wage Growth: State-Level Evidence
By Knut Are Aastveit; Norges Bank Jonas Hölz; BI Norwegian Business School Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli; Norges Bank Gisle Natvik; BI Norwegian Business School
presented by: Jonas Hölz, BI Norwegian Business School
Session: E4: Macro Theory 5 March 22, 2025 15:00 to 16:40 Location: DB 3.206
Session Chair: Guillaume Nevo, Uppsala University
A Model of Endogenous Human Capital Growth and Structural Transformation
By Spandan Roy; Iowa State University
presented by: Spandan Roy, Iowa State University
"It's not right, but is it okay? Evaluating Linearized Solutions of Discrete-State Labor Search Models
By Neil White; Amherst College
presented by: Neil White, Amherst College
Large Firms, High Concentration, High Wages
By Guillaume Nevo; Uppsala University
presented by: Guillaume Nevo, Uppsala University
Session: E5: Macroeconomics 3 March 22, 2025 15:00 to 16:40 Location: DB 3.208
Session Chair: Prajyna barua, university of texas dallas
Estimates of Quarterly and Monthly Episodes of Global Recessions: Evidence from Markov-switching Dynamic Factor Models
By Arabinda Basistha; West Virginia University
presented by: Arabinda Basistha, West Virginia University
Gender Differences in Employment Recoveries
By Luiggi Donayre; University of Minnesota - Duluth Yunjong Eo; Korea University
presented by: Luiggi Donayre, University of Minnesota - Duluth
Estimating Time-Variation in Matching Efficiency and Match Elasticity for the US Labor Market
By Prajyna barua; university of texas dallas
presented by: Prajyna barua, university of texas dallas
Session: E6: Energy Economics March 22, 2025 15:00 to 16:40 Location: DB 3.214
Session Chair: Hilde Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations
By Lutz Kilian; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Michael Plante; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Alexander Richter; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
presented by: Alexander Richter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Oil Price Shocks and Labor Reallocation
By Ana Maria Herrera; University of Kentucky
presented by: Ana Maria Herrera, University of Kentucky
Oil Price Pass-Through to Energy, Food, and Core Inflation
By Harun Alp; Federal Reserve Board Matthew Klepacz; Federal Reserve Board
presented by: Matthew Klepacz, Federal Reserve Board
Resource Wealth and Income Inequality: Five Key Takeaways
By Hilde Bjørnland; BI Norwegian Business School Yoosoon Chang; Indiana University Helene Onshuus; University of Oslo Julia Skretting; Statistics Norway Leif Anders Thorsrud; BI Norwegian Business School
presented by: Hilde Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School
Session: E7: Inflation 3 THESE PAPERS WILL BE PRESENTED IN C1 March 22, 2025 15:00 to 16:15 Location: DB 3.218
Session Chair: Jalal Bagherzadeh, Texas Tech University

 

This program was last updated on 2025-03-21 10:24:36 EDT