October 24, 2024
Time	Location	Event
08:30 to 00:00		Registration
09:30 to 11:50		Tutorial Commissione di Genere SIE
11:00 to 13:00		Riunione di CASA-Econ per i rappresentanti delle Associazioni Scientifiche - Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)
12:00 to 13:00		Essere Economiste - Commissione di Genere SIE - Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
13:30 to 14:00		Welcome Address: President of the Italian Economic Association, University of Urbino and Institutions
14:00 to 15:20	see below	A.1 - PARALLEL SESSIONS
15:30 to 16:30		PLENARY SESSION
16:30 to 17:00		Coffee break
17:00 to 18:20	see below	A.2 - PARALLEL SESSIONS
18:30 to 19:30		SPECIAL PLENARY SESSION
19:45 to 00:00		Welcome cocktail
October 25, 2024
Time	Location	Event
08:15 to 00:00		Registration
08:30 to 09:50	see below	B.1 - PARALLEL SESSIONS
09:50 to 10:00		Coffee break
10:00 to 11:20	see below	B.2 - PARALLEL SESSIONS
11:30 to 13:00		SIE General Meeting - Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
13:00 to 14:00		Lunch
14:00 to 15:20	see below	B.3 - PARALLEL SESSIONS
15:30 to 16:30		PLENARY SESSION
16:30 to 17:00		Coffee break
17:00 to 18:20	see below	B.4 - PARALLEL SESSIONS
18:30 to 19:30		SPECIAL PLENARY SESSION
20:30 to 00:00		SOCIAL DINNER: LA GINESTRA - Via Furlo, 15-17, Acqualagna (PU) - https://laginestrafurlo.it
October 26, 2024
Time	Location	Event
08:30 to 00:00		Registration
09:00 to 10:20	see below	C.1 - PARALLEL SESSIONS
10:30 to 11:50	see below	C.2 - PARALLEL SESSIONS
11:50 to 12:00		Coffee break
12:00 to 13:20	see below	C.3 - PARALLEL SESSIONS
13:30 to 00:00		Closing Remarks - End of the Conference

Summary of All Sessions
Click here for an index of all participants

#	Date/Time	Title/Location	Papers
1	October 24, 2024 9:30-11:50	Tutorial Commissione di Genere SIE: "Crafting the Core: the Science behind the Contribution of economic papers, Almudena Sevilla (London School of Economics and Political Science)- Collaborators: Pilar Cuevas-Ruiz (LSE), Sveva Manfredi (LSE - CEP)     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	1
2	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	COME FUNZIONANO LE RIVISTE ECONOMICHE INTERNAZIONALI     Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)	3
3	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	ECONOMICS RENAISSANCE     Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
4	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	COMMISSIONE PER LA DIDATTICA DELL'ECONOMIA E COMMISSIONE PER LA DIVULGAZIONE SCIENTIFICA E LA COMUNICAZIONE     Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	0
5	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	COMMISSIONE PER L'UNIVERSITA', LA RICERCA E LA VALUTAZIONE     Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	0
6	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	INDUSTRIAL POLICY     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
7	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	ARCHIVIO STORICO DELLE ECONOMISTE E DEGLI ECONOMISTI (ASEE)     Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	0
8	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE (with ITSG - Italian Trade Study Group)     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	4
9	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	SHOCKS AND HUMAN CAPITAL (with AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economia del Lavoro)     Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
10	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	CROSS-CONTAMINATION FRA ECONOMIA E STORIA ECONOMICA: SLOGAN O REALTA'? (with ARiSE - Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca in Storia Economica)     Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
11	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	AGRICOLTURA, AMBIENTE, ECONOMIA (with AIEAA - Associazione Italiana di Economia Agraria e Applicata)     Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
12	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	FOOD DEMAND POLICIES FOR SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
13	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	TAXATION     Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
14	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	FINANCIAL LITERACY     Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
15	October 24, 2024 14:00-15:20	TRADE     Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
16	October 24, 2024 15:30-16:30	Almuneda Sevilla (London School of Economics and Political Science) - Paradigm Shifts in Gender Economics: A New Era     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	1
17	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	COMPLEXITY, HETEROGENEITY, AND POLICY     Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
18	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	MAKING SENSE OF THE FIVE CRITICAL PILLARS: A MANIFESTO FOR ECONOMICS RENAISSANCE     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	1
19	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	PUBBLICARE A INIZIO CARRIERA NELLE RIVISTE INTERNAZIONALI     Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)	4
20	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	ESG     Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
21	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	REGIONS IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY (with AISRe - Associazione Italiana di Scienze Regionali)     Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
22	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	NOVEL PERSPECTIVE IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS (with IAERE - Associazione Italiana Economisti dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse Naturali)     Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
23	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	THE ENERGY TRANSITION. INTEGRATED SHORT AND LONG-TERM APPROACHES AND ANALYSIS     Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
24	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	ECONOMICS OF INNOVATION AND CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS     Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
25	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	POVERTY     Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
26	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	DIGITAL ECONOMY     Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
27	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	EFFECTS OF PANDEMIC CRISIS     Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
28	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	REGIONAL INNOVATION     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
29	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	INCOME INEQUALITY     Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
30	October 24, 2024 17:00-18:20	WOMEN POLITICAL PROCESS     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
31	October 24, 2024 18:30-19:30	THE ITALIAN ECONOMY IN THE 2020s/L'ECONOMIA ITALIANA NEGLI ANNI VENTI     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	3
32	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	THE EMPIRICS OF GEOREFERENCED DATA     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	4
33	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: ROBOTIZATION AND AI     Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
34	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	GENDER AND CLASS STRATIFICATION: EVIDENCE FROM HISTORICAL AND CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES     Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
35	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	VISITINPS 1     Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
36	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	UNDER THE GRIP OF ORGANIZED CRIME: MAINTAINING FIRM PERFORMANCE IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT     Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
37	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	INDUSTRY DYNAMICS IN ITALY: PAST AND CURRENT TRENDS (with SIEPI - Società Italiana di Economia e Politica Industriale)     Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
38	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	MIGRATION I     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
39	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	POLICY EVALUATION I     Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
40	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	INFLATION     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
41	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION     Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
42	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	AI, ROBOTS AND DIGITAL TECH I     Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
43	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	CLIMATE CHANGE I     Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	2
44	October 25, 2024 8:30-9:50	CRIME & CORRUPTION I     Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
45	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	OPENING THE BLACK BOX: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF AI TECHNOLOGIES     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	4
46	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	AGENT-BASED MODELS AND GREEN TRANSITION     Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
47	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	MIGRATION II     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
48	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	PRIMATO DELLA TEORIA E RAPPORTO CON LA STORIA IN MAFFEO PANTALEONI, ECONOMISTA E SCIENZIATO SOCIALE (with AISPE - Associazione Italiana per la Storia del Pensiero Economico)     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
49	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	BUSINESS CYCLE     Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
50	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	ECO-INNOVATION, EXPORT & ESHIP     Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
51	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	L'UTILIZZO DEI MICRODATI STATISTICI SULLE IMPRESE PER LA RICERCA APPLICATA: L'ESPERIENZA DELL'ISTAT (with ISTAT - Istituto Nazionale di Statistica)     Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)	3
52	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	POLICY EVALUATION II     Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
53	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	AI, ROBOTS AND DIGITAL TECH II     Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
54	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	PUBLIC ECONOMICS     Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
55	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	CLIMATE CHANGE II     Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
56	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	CRIME & CORRUPTION II     Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
57	October 25, 2024 10:00-11:20	INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY AND EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES IN ITALY     Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
58	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	GENDER HARASSMENT IN THE WORKPLACE     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	3
59	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	EUROPEAN COMPETITIVENESS 1: RESHAPING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS     Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
60	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	CLIMATE CHANGE, VIOLENT CONFLICTS AND WELFARE: A MULTI-SCALE INVESTIGATION OF CAUSAL PATHWAYS IN DIFFERENT INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXTS     Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
61	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	JOB SECURITY AND WAGE INEQUALITY IN ITALY     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
62	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	AGENT-BASED MODELS FOR POLICY MAKING     Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
63	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	PNRR: AVANZAMENTI E POSSIBILI EFFETTI (TAVOLA ROTONDA)     Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)	3
64	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	INEQUALITY, TAXATION AND TAX EVASION     Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
65	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	INDUSTRIAL AND DEVELOPMENT POLICIES FOR NEXT EUROPE (with AENL - Associazione degli Economisti di Lingua Neolatina)     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
66	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	CLIMATE CHANGE III     Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
67	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS I     Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
68	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	FIRMS & TECHNOLOGY     Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
69	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	UNIVERSITY     Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
70	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	GROWTH     Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
71	October 25, 2024 14:00-15:20	INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION     Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
72	October 25, 2024 15:30-16:30	Keynote speech: Giancarlo Corsetti, Pierre Werner Chair at the Robert Schuman Centre and Professor of Economics at the European University Institute - Micro to macro approaches to monetary policy     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	1
73	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	TECHNOLOGY, GLOBALIZATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS: THE NEXT CHALLENGES FOR GROWTH AND PROSPERITY     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	5
74	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	EUROPEAN COMPETITIVENESS 2: INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN TIMES OF WEAPONISED INTERDEPENDENCE     Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
75	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	STRUCTURAL CHANGE     Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
76	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	PRESENTAZIONE DEL RAPPORTO ANNUALE INPS     Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)	4
77	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	RICORDANDO CLAUDIO NAPOLEONI A CENTO ANNI DALLA NASCITA (Claudio Napoleoni at 100) (with STOREP - Associazione Italiana per la Storia dell'Economia Politica)     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
78	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	WAGES IN ITALY AND EUROPE     Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
79	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	CONFLICT, MILITARY SPENDING AND MILITARIZATION. RECENT ISSUES AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE (with EPS - Economists for Peace and Security)     Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
80	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	A MORE EQUAL FUTURE OF WORK FOR WOMEN? THE EFFECTS OF AI, AUTOMATION, AND NEW WAYS OF WORKING (with AISSEC - Associazione Italiana per lo Studio dei Sistemi Economici Comparati)     Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
81	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	L'AUTONOMIA REGIONALE DIFFERENZIATA IN ITALIA: STATO DELL'ARTE E POSSIBILI IMPLICAZIONI     Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
82	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	FIRM BEHAVIOUR     Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
83	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	ECONOMICS AND GEOGRAPHY OF THE TWIN-TRANSITION: DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES, CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS, AND GREEN INNOVATIONS AND JOBS     Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
84	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	TOURISM     Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
85	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS II     Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
86	October 25, 2024 17:00-18:20	KEYNES'S "ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE". A THEATRICAL ADAPTATION     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	1
87	October 25, 2024 18:30-19:30	KEYNES'S "ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE" AFTER 100 YEARS     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	3
88	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	TAVOLA ROTONDA SU: "RAPPORTO DRAGHI"     Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)	1
89	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	VISITINPS 2     Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
90	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	LA COLLOCAZIONE INTERNAZIONALE DELL'ECONOMIA ITALIANA (TAVOLA ROTONDA)     Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	5
91	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	GREEN TRANSITION AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	4
92	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICS I     Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
93	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	POLITICAL PROCESS I     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
94	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	HEALTH ECONOMICS     Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
95	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	FINANCE     Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	2
96	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	ECONOMICS OF GENDER     Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
97	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS I     Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
98	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	LABOUR MARKET I     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
99	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	MONETARY POLICY I     Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
100	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	EMISSIONS ECONOMICS AND POLICY     Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
101	October 26, 2024 9:00-10:20	PUBLIC PROCUREMENT     Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
102	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	THE YEARS OF HIGH THEORY: CLAUDIO NAPOLEONI AND AUGUSTO GRAZIANI SINCE THE 1950s UNTIL THE 1980s     Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
103	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	FIRMS AND BANKS IN THE TWIN TRANSITION: INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, AND REGIONAL SUSTAINABILITY (with Centro Studi delle Camere di Commercio "Guglielmo Tagliacarne")     Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
104	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICS II     Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
105	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	POLITICAL PROCESS II     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
106	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS II     Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
107	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	LABOUR MARKET II     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
108	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	MONETARY POLICY II     Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
109	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	REGIONAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY     Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
110	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	FISCAL POLICY     Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
111	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	WASTE MANAGEMENT     Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3
112	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	BANKING     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
113	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	EQUILIBRIUM AND MARKET IMPERFECTIONS     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	4
114	October 26, 2024 10:30-11:50	CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICY     Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
115	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	LABOUR MARKET III     Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
116	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	CAPITAL FLOWS, PROFIT SHIFTING, TAX AVOIDANCE     Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)	3
117	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	ITALIAN ECONOMY     Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
118	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	QUALITY OF INSTITUTIONS     Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
119	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	NATURAL DISASTERS     Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
120	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	MACROECONOMICS     Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
121	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	CORPORATE FINANCE     Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
122	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	ENERGY TRANSITION     Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	4
123	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS     Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
124	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND METHODOLOGY     Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	3
125	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT     Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
126	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	EDUCATION     Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)	4
127	October 26, 2024 12:00-13:20	CENTRAL BANKING     Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)	3

 

127 sessions, 437 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers

65th Annual Conference - Italian Economic Association
Detailed List of Sessions

       

Session 1: Tutorial Commissione di Genere SIE: "Crafting the Core: the Science behind the Contribution of economic papers, Almudena Sevilla (London School of Economics and Political Science)- Collaborators: Pilar Cuevas-Ruiz (LSE), Sveva Manfredi (LSE - CEP) October 24, 2024 9:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Mentoring for Excellence: Crafting the Core: The Science behind the Contribution of an Economics Paper Abstract Mentoring for Excellence: Crafting the Core: The Science behind the Contribution of an Economics Paper
By Almudena Sevilla; London School of Economics, LSE    Pilar Cuevas-Ruiz; London School of Economics, LSE    Sveva Manfredi; London School of Economics, LSE
Presented by: Almudena Sevilla, London School of Economics, LSE
Pilar Cuevas-Ruiz, London School of Economics, LSE
Sveva Manfredi, London School of Economics, LSE
Session 2: ECONOMICS RENAISSANCE October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Alessio Emanuele Biondo, Università di Catania
Can Emotional Roots Catch Complex Decision-Making? A “Green” Review of the Literature Abstract Can Emotional Roots Catch Complex Decision-Making? A “Green” Review of the Literature
By Antonino Callea; Università LUMSA    Beatrice Cianfanelli; Università LUMSA    Marco Costanzi; Università LUMSA    Giovanni Ferri; Università LUMSA    Plinio Limata; Università LUMSA
Presented by: Giovanni Ferri, Università LUMSA
The taste for generativity (un lab experiment su preferenze generative) Abstract The taste for generativity (un lab experiment su preferenze generative)
By Leonardo Becchetti; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Irene Maria Buso; Università di Bologna    Luca Corazzini; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Vittorio Pelligra; Università di Cagliari
Presented by: Leonardo Becchetti, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Innovation for Sustainable Human Development and Multidimensional Wellbeing in European Regions Abstract Innovation for Sustainable Human Development and Multidimensional Wellbeing in European Regions
By Mario Biggeri; Università di Firenze    Annalisa Caloffi; Università di Firenze    Adam Francescutto; Università di Firenze    Giulio Guarini; Università della Tuscia
Presented by: Giulio Guarini, Università della Tuscia
Relationality and Rationality Abstract Relationality and Rationality
By Leonardo Becchetti; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Alessio Emanuele Biondo; Università di Catania
Presented by: Alessio Emanuele Biondo, Università di Catania
Session 3: COME FUNZIONANO LE RIVISTE ECONOMICHE INTERNAZIONALI October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)
Session Chair: Carlo D'Ippoliti, Sapienza Università di Roma
Annals in Regional Science Abstract Annals in Regional Science
By Alessandra Faggian; Gran Sasso Science Institute (GSSI)
Presented by: Alessandra Faggian, Gran Sasso Science Institute (GSSI)
American Economic Review (in collegamento da remoto) Abstract American Economic Review
By Pietro Ortoleva; Princeton University
Presented by: Pietro Ortoleva, Princeton University
Journal of Industrial and Business Economics Abstract Journal of Industrial and Business Economics
By Antonello Zanfei; Università di Urbino
Presented by: Antonello Zanfei, Università di Urbino
Session 4: COMMISSIONE PER LA DIDATTICA DELL'ECONOMIA E COMMISSIONE PER LA DIVULGAZIONE SCIENTIFICA E LA COMUNICAZIONE October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chairs:
Riccardo De Bonis, Banca d'Italia
Andrea Fracasso, Università di Trento
Marcello Signorelli, Università di Perugia
Session 5: INDUSTRIAL POLICY October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Lucrezia Fanti, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Do cohesion policies help to reduce the divide in KIBS specialization? Evidence from Italy Abstract Given the increasing importance of Knowledge Intensive Business Services (KIBS) as a driver of regional growth and industrial innovation, specialization in KIBS is a widely analysed topic in the recent economic literature. Actually, KIBS represent a guarantee of local and regional competitiveness in the knowledge-based economy and concentrate in high-density areas near customers (i.e., for Italy in the district of Milan), which favours firms’ access to the market in order to undertake fundamental interactions (Duranton and Puga, 2002, 2005; Krugman, 1991; Puga, 1998). Hence, location assumes an important role in determining their performance (e.g., Wood, 2006). Given the above, and considering that “Overall Objective 1 areas” belonging to Cohesion Countries reached better results about growth in KIBS employment in the European Union between 1995 and 2007 than other regions (Delgado Marquez and Garcia Velasco, 2013), this paper aims to shed light on the evolution of province specialization in KIBS in Italy over the last years by focusing particularly on the role of cohesion policy (2007-2013 and 2014-2020), so as to assess whether EU funds can help reduce the divide in KIBS between the more and the less developed areas of Italy (North Centre-NC vs. South and islands-SI). We concentrate on Italian provinces (NUTS3) from 2007 to 2020 and employ an empirical framework based on spatial regressions (SAR; SAR IV; SDM). The results show differences between geographical areas (NC vs SI) as well as between the different fund types.
By Marinella Boccia; Università di Salerno
Presented by: Marinella Boccia, Università di Salerno
Not Policies for Superstars: the Impact of a Public Program for Innovative Start-ups Abstract In this paper we study the impact of a policy implemented in the second economic largest Italian region (Latium) that aims to foster the birth of new innovative start-ups trough economic subsidies. Using different control groups, mainly based on similar applicants, we find that the policy doubled the probability of the birth of a new innovative firm. Moreover, we find that the firms born thanks to the policy have similar survival rate to other new companies born in the same period in the region, but slower growth, in terms of sales, employment and assets, mainly due to the lower presence of high-growth firms among the treated.
By Raffaello Bronzini; Banca d'Italia    Giuseppe Albanese; Banca d'Italia
Presented by: Raffaello Bronzini, Banca d'Italia
Local development patterns of the Film Industry in Italy: the impact of regional Film Commissions Abstract This study assesses the tangible effects of the film industry on the economies of peripheral cities and regions in Italy. This focus stems from the notable shift of film production away from traditional hubs towards peripheral areas over the past two decades. This relocation has been prompted by both the desire to mitigate production costs and the allure of incentives offered by Regional Funds and Film Commissions in outlying regions, which have been instrumental in attracting producers. The empirical analysis will test a hypothesis at odds with the prevailing economic literature on industrial concentration, notably whether the proliferation of Film Funds and Commissions in peripheral regions has indeed led to a decentralization of the film industry within Italy. Such analysis rely on a longitudinal dataset combining the official statistics on regional industrial structure with the information gathered through an ad-hoc questionnaire administered to Regional Film Commissions.
By Paolo Seri; Università di Enna "Kore"    Giulio Pedrini; Università di Enna "Kore"    Riccardo Persio; Università di Enna "Kore"
Presented by: Paolo Seri, Università di Enna "Kore"
Industrial policies and the North-South convergence: State-Owned Enterprises in a macro-trade Agent-Based Model Abstract Drawing on the labour-augmented K+S model (Dosi et al., 2017) and its North- South version with segmented labour markets (Fanti et al., 2024), we present an Agent- Based Model (ABM) wherein State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a crucial role on innovation performance, economic growth and industrial development of a laggard country. Indeed we test different model configurations by showing how industrial policies targeted to fostering SOEs production and innovative performance in the South through R&D investment, machine renewal programs and labour market interventions represent a crucial policy tool to stimulate the leader-laggard convergence.
By Lucrezia Fanti; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Marcelo C. Pereira; University of Campinas    Maria Enrica Virgillito; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
Presented by: Lucrezia Fanti, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Session 6: COMMISSIONE PER L'UNIVERSITA', LA RICERCA E LA VALUTAZIONE October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chairs:
Emanuela Marrocu, Università di Cagliari
Eleonora Pierucci, Università Roma Tre
Session 7: ARCHIVIO STORICO DELLE ECONOMISTE E DEGLI ECONOMISTI (ASEE) October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Antonella Rancan, Università del Molise
Session 8: INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE (with ITSG - Italian Trade Study Group) October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Lucia Tajoli, Politecnico di Milano
Robot, Trade and Employment: unravelling the relationship Abstract Our paper deals with the impact of robot adoption diff using through global value chain (GVC) relationships on the employment dynamics within the European context. We empirically contribute to the literature investigating the broader eff ects of robot adoption, departing from previous bilateral case studies and providing insights into employment dynamics in a trade-integrated European context. We concentrate on the top five European economies as robot adopters over the period from 1995 to 2018 and develop a composite indicator that captures both the penetration of industrial robots within these economies and the export reliance of other European nations on them. Our findings show a positive association between top five robot adoption and employment outcomes, suggesting the prevalence of a productivity eff ect within the highly integrated European market, pulled by lower income countries.
By Chiara Franco; Università di Pisa    Francesco Suppressa; Università di Pisa
Presented by: Francesco Suppressa, Università di Pisa
Green FDI and Technological Spillovers in Host Economies Abstract This paper investigates the role of green Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) in fostering technological spillovers within host economies, focusing on renewable energy (RE) technologies. Utilizing an updated green FDI dataset, this study extends previous research by measuring the extent of technological spillovers through forward citations of foreign investors’ green patents by inventors operating in the host economies. Our findings reveal significant spillovers, highlighting how green FDIs contribute to the dissemination of innovative technologies across borders. We observe that the impact of green FDIs on local innovation is more pronounced in developing economies and in countries with stringent environmental policies.
By Vito Amendolagine; Università di Foggia    Roberta Rabellotti; Università di Pavia    Dalila Ribaudo; Aston Business School
Presented by: Roberta Rabellotti, Università di Pavia
Digital connectivity and firm participation in foreign markets: An exporter-based bilateral analysis Abstract This paper studies how bilateral digital connectivity resulting from telecommunications SubMarine Cable (SMC) deployment affects firm participation in export markets. Based on a heterogeneous firm model and using an unbalanced panel of bilateral trade data across 48 countries during the period 1997-2014, we find that an SMC connection between two countries is associated with an increase in the number of bilateral exporters in developed countries, together with a reduction in the number of bilateral exporters in developing countries. This negative association between bilateral connectivity and firm participation in export markets appears to be stronger in the poorest developing areas, where firms have lower digital absorptive capacity: Middle East and North Africa, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The growth in world connectivity spurred by SMCs deployment has therefore had a heterogeneous effect on firms’ decision to export, pushing more firms from high-income countries to enter export markets, and some incumbent exporters from lower-income countries to exit them.
By Michele Imbruno; Sapienza Università di Roma    Joël Cariolle; FERDI - France    Jaime de Melo; University of Geneva
Presented by: Michele Imbruno, Sapienza Università di Roma
Trade Agreements as a Tool for Environmental Progress: An Empirical Analysis Abstract We investigate the impact of environmental provisions within trade agreements on environmental outcomes. Our study leverages a comprehensive dataset spanning over 120 countries and multiple decades, employing a synthetic difference-in-differences estimator for robust analysis. We systematically map specific environmental provisions (addressing air, maritime, greenhouse gas pollution, etc.) to their corresponding outcome indicators. Our research delves into the mechanisms that drive successful implementation of environmental provisions. We differentiate between enforceable and non-binding provisions, also examining the effectiveness of varying enforcement approaches. Additionally, we explore the crucial role of promoting mechanisms such as civil society participation, intergovernmental committees, transparency requirements, private submission rights, and financial assistance. Our findings suggest that non-binding provisions often coincide with a greater emphasis on promoting mechanisms. Furthermore, preliminary results indicate that the combination of financial assistance and other promoting mechanisms may achieve better environmental outcomes than binding provisions lacking such multifaceted support. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers seeking to design and implement effective environmental provisions within trade agreements to generate tangible environmental improvements.
By Joseph Francois; University of Bern    Bernard Hoekman; European University Institute    Miriam Manchin; Politecnico di Milano    Filippo Santi; European University Institute
Presented by: Miriam Manchin, Politecnico di Milano
Session 9: SHOCKS AND HUMAN CAPITAL (with AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economia del Lavoro) October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Matteo Picchio, Università Politecnica delle Marche
When it hurts the most: timing of parental job loss and a child’s education Abstract We investigate the stages of childhood at which family shocks are most consequential for a child’s education. Using Danish administrative data, we link parents experiencing plant closures to their children. We compare end-of-school outcomes to matched unexposed peers and closures hitting shortly after school completion. Parental job loss disproportionally reduces test taking, scores, and high school enrolment among children exposed during infancy (ages 0-1). Adolescents suffer milder adverse effects, while little impacts are detected in mid-childhood. Effects are largest for low-income and low-achieving children and closely reflect family income losses. Maternal time investment partially offsets the effect of reduced income
By Paul Bingley; VIVE    Lorenzo Cappellari; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Marco Ovidi; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Lorenzo Cappellari, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Does Far-Right Populism affect the Working Conditions of Immigrants? Abstract Populist parties' propaganda often portrays immigrants as a threat to native workers' jobs. When propaganda materializes at the polls and electoral results signal a change in social preferences about immigration, natives may become more likely to express anti-immigrant resentment, also at the workplace. We employ Italian panel administrative data on workers in the manufacturing sector to explore whether the electoral results of an Italian populist party, the Lega Nord, drive actual di erences in native and foreign workers' labor market outcomes. We  nd that a 1% increase in the votes for the Lega Nord increases injury rates of foreign workers by 0.9% within job spells. The e ect is driven by  rms with less than  fteen employees, which are less likely to be unionized and do not o er employment protection. Our results are suggestive that the increase in injury rates is due to a reallocation of migrants to night-shift schedules, which draws on increased rigidity in immigrants' labor supply.
By Anna D'Ambrosio; Politecnico di Torino    Roberto Leombruni; Università di Torino    Tiziano Razzolini; Univesità di Siena
Presented by: Anna D'Ambrosio, Politecnico di Torino
Open the Floodgates or Skim the Cream? Selective vs. open enrollment policies and the race for talent in Italy Abstract Demand for a university education in Italy continues to rise, in particular for enrollment in schools in the country’s north. In many cases, university programs have responded to increasing demand by capping enrollment, effectively making admissions competitive. More than half of northern programs now fit this description, compared with fewer than 20% in 2010. We show that when programs become selective, they take half as many students, who have high school marks 0.2 s.d. higher than before on average. These unusually large enrollment and “quality” changes allow us to estimate class size versus peer effects in a unique setting – universities. We find that decreases in program enrollment have stronger effects on student performance than increases in peer quality. We further decompose this relationship at different quantiles via a recentered influence function (RIF). We show that the enrollment effect is largest at the median and above, while peer effects are most pronounced below the median. We situate these results in a context where resource constrained universities face a tradeoff in the quantity and quality of students they enroll.
By Daniel Kreisman; Georgia State University
Presented by: Daniel Kreisman, Georgia State University
In the wrong place at the wrong time: The impact of mass shooting exposure on mental health Abstract This article studies the effect of mass shooting exposure on individuals’ mental health. We used data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our identification strategy relied on the quasi-randomness of mass shootings in a staggered difference-in-differences design. We compared changes in mental health outcomes of individuals living in affected cities with changes of matched individuals living in non-proximal and not affected cities. We found that mass shootings exert a negative and significant effect on mental health, which persists up to 6 years, is larger for women, older cohorts and is race related.
By Michele Ubaldi; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Matteo Picchio; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Matteo Picchio, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Session 10: CROSS-CONTAMINATION FRA ECONOMIA E STORIA ECONOMICA: SLOGAN O REALTA'? (with ARiSE - Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca in Storia Economica) October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Paolo Di Martino, Università di Torino
An economist’s guide to economic history Abstract Based on recent studies on the evolution of economic history overtime (Cioni et al.), this paper addresses the complex relation between this discipline and economics more in general. The paper starts from the consideration that, in their origin, the two disciplines de facto coincided, and that later development of both of them along different directions (qualitative vs. quantitative) led to the separation of the two paths. Since the 1960s, however, the emergence of a quantitative approach to economic history – called cliometrics – paved the way for a re-joining of the two disciplines. The paper analyses how, however, climetrics did not impose itself as the prevalent style in economic history while, on the other hand, standard economics was not particularly seduced by the new approach. As a result the re-rapprochement was only partial. Parallel to this trend, other routes kept the conversation alive. Firstly, among top economists, inferences from economic history (not necessarily cliometric one) remained appreciated. Over the years, scholars of the calibre of Milton Friedman, Ben Bernanke and Claudia Goldin practiced the discipline directly. More in general, the field called historical economics remained fertile, especially in the US. In its established tradition historical economics - practiced mainly in economics departments - was characterised by the use of historical data or events to test competing theoretical hypotheses and/or interpretations.
By Paolo Di Martino; Università di Torino
Presented by: Paolo Di Martino, Università di Torino
The wheel of life? The effect of the abolition of the ruota in 19th-century Italy Abstract This paper examines the effects of abolishing the ruota (baby hatch) system on reproductive decision-making in post-unitary Italy (1863-1883). Baby hatches offered a means for anonymous infant abandonment, often used in Catholic Southern Europe due to social stigma and poverty. As infant abandonment rates and foundling mortality soared in the 19th century, countries began dismantling these systems. Italy mirrored this trend, with provinces abolishing the ruota at different times. We investigate the specific impacts of the ruota abolition on infant abandonment, infant mortality, new births, and gender discrimination. We hypothesize that ending anonymous abandonment would lead to fewer births and improved care for retained children. Using a novel longitudinal dataset of Italian provinces and a staggered difference-in-difference strategy, we confirm these predictions. Our findings show a 30% decrease in abandonments, an 11.2% decline in infant deaths, and a 6.7% drop in births after the ruota was abolished. This suggests a significant shift in reproductive behavior and family planning in response to policy change.
By Giuliana Freschi; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Marco Molteni; Geneva Graduate Instistute e Oxford Unviersity
Presented by: Giuliana Freschi, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
The long way to a national credit market. Banks and Commercial Bills in France, 1851-1936 Abstract We examine the evolution of local and national credit relationships using detailed data on discounted bills in each branch of the French central bank from 1851 to 1936. This was a unique observatory of the domestic circulation of commercial bills. The ratio of "national" to "local" bills remained stable until 1913. It then experienced a sharp increase in the 1920s, coinciding with the fastest expansion of commercial bank branches in history. Econometrics with city-level data confirm that the two phenomena were linked. The aftermath of WWI considerably reshaped the scale and geography of the national market for commercial bills
By Marianna Astore; Università di Torino    Eric Monnet; Paris School of Economics
Presented by: Marianna Astore, Università di Torino
Session 11: AGRICOLTURA, AMBIENTE, ECONOMIA (with AIEAA - Associazione Italiana di Economia Agraria e Applicata) October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Matteo Zavalloni, Università di Urbino
Variable inputs use as a risk mitigation strategy. An empirical assessment on irrigated field crop farms in Italy Abstract This study assesses risk mitigation through variable input use (irrigation, plant protection, fertilizers, labour) on Italian irrigated field crop farms (2014-2021) using Italian FADN data. It employs a method of moments to analyze input impacts on risk, addressing farm income's dynamic nature and estimation challenges. Findings reveal fertilizers and plant protection increase risk, labour decreases it, and irrigation raises income failure risk. CAP payments reduce risk exposure, while farm diversification's effect is negligible. The study highlights trade-offs between environmental goals and risk management under the EU's Farm-to-Fork Strategy, suggesting policy designs should balance environmental and economic sustainability. It contributes methodologically by incorporating income dynamics and offers insights for policy, emphasizing labour's role in reducing risk and questioning diversification's effectiveness. Limitations include potential endogeneity and the need for further meteorological data investigation.
By Luigi Biagini; Università della Tuscia    Martina Bozzola; Queen’s University Belfast    Simone Severini; Università della Tuscia
Presented by: Luigi Biagini, Università della Tuscia
Global Drivers of Local Water Stresses: An Application of the SIMPLE-G model to the Italian case Abstract and precipitation. Italy has witnessed a discernible rise in severe drought events over the last two decades, profoundly affecting crop yields and economic outputs. Within the country, the adept management of crop irrigation emerges as a critical component, particularly given its role as a vital resource in agriculture. In this context, there is a crucial need for a tool that assesses the local and global socio-economic consequences of extreme weather events and sheds light on effective adaptation strategies such as 2023 2027 CAP and EU Regulation on reused water. This paper presents the Italian application of SIMPLE-G, a Gridded version of the Simplified International Model of Agricultural Prices, Land Use, and Environment, initially introduced by Baldos et al. (2020) and Haqaqi et al. (2023) and based on a calibration database with a spatial disaggregation at 5 arcmin grids. This depiction captures the territorial diversity regarding cropland, crop production, nitrogen application, and surface and groundwater irrigation use. This multi-scale model offers boundary conditions for local decision-makers and incorporates feedback from local policies to national and global scales, enhancing its practicality and relevance in addressing the challenges at hand.
By Cristina Vaquero Pineiro; Università Roma Tre    Luca Salvatici; Università Roma Tre    María Laura Ojeda; UBA-CONICET e Università Roma Tre    Exequiel Romero Gomez; UBA-CONICET
Presented by: Cristina Vaquero Pineiro, Università Roma Tre
What is the Impact of Farms’ Circularity on Their Economic Performances? A micro level assessment for Italian Agriculture Abstract The circular economy is propitious to achieve sustainable growth, with agriculture as one main actor. However, the absence of a standard tool to measure circularity in agriculture hinders its expected benefits. Actual measurement tools have a narrow focus on specific circular economy strategies, miss the connection between ecology and economy, and do not measure all harmful emissions to land, water, and air. Furthermore, environmentally beneficial farm practices are thought to result in improved economic stability due to better resilience to environmental degradation, however, the economic performance considering the costs of their application must be evaluated to provide complete information to farmers and policymakers. This research focuses on the assessment of circularity applied at the farm level, facilitating the identification of heterogenous farms’ structure and management, and benefiting from possible impacts at higher levels. This research aims to develop circularity indicators using microdata to cover common knowledge gaps, match a consensus concept of circularity applied in agriculture, identify influencing farms’ characteristics, and recognise the connection between circularity and farms’ profitability. Data used are extracted from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) the only source of EU farm-level data based on harmonised bookkeeping principles. This data is representative of three dimensions: location, economic size, and farm specialisation. After identifying a balanced panel, observed over the period 2008-2020, and the main crops produced in Italy, we considered 949 units and 12,337 observations. Circularity measures plausible to be calculated with FADN data are the Gross Nitrogen Balance, the Phosphorus Balance, and the Carbon Balance. These metrics inform about the sustainable use of soil nutrients, essential in plant growth and livestock raising, and their impact on pollution in air, soil, and water. Internationally recognized guidelines from Eurostat, the EU Nitrogen Expert Panel, and OECD were the base for the construction of nutrient balances. To interpret the results of the nutrient balances, the indicators calculated assess waste reduction: total inputs (In) and emissions and losses (Loss) indicators; address waste used as a resource: secondary-to-total input (Sec); evaluate reducing waste and effectively managing waste: nutrient use efficiency (NutUE); and evaluate closing the loop: self-sufficiency index (SSI) for fertilisation, and the feed autonomy index (FA). The relationship between circularity indicators and profitability is evaluated by Fixed Effects dynamic models. Variables that tend to influence productivity and profitability included in the model are lagged profitability, which expresses dependency on past economic performance; labour per Utilised agricultural area (UAA), which represents labour intensity; fertiliser and crop protection expenses per UAA, representing management and protection intensity; farm specialisation, that represents the influence of intrinsic processes of each agricultural production type; total fixed capital, which identifies factor endowments; and agricultural support subsidies, considering their debated impact on the efficiency of farms production. Adopting circularity is related to higher profitability due to efficient resource management. However, farm specialisation may influence the relationship between farm profitability and circularity. Circular actions may present economic, and environmental results at different periods of time.
By Diana Escobar Jaramillo; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Paolo Sckokai; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Silvia Coderoni; Università di Teramo
Presented by: Diana Escobar Jaramillo, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
From needs to policy action: the Italian agri-food districts as a case of territorial cooperation Abstract This study investigates the potential of agri-food districts in fostering balanced territorial development among ecological and social challenges in global food systems. The paper outlines a multi-step approach to develop sustainable agri-food districts. It assesses how districts, as integrated systems and meso-level organizational forms, can enhance sustainability through governance. The research constructs a context driven analysis focusing on the case of agri-food districts in Lombardy. The methodology is based on participatory approaches to identify needs and prioritize actions using a narrative SWOT analysis combined with key stakeholder discussions (focus group). A total of eighteen needs were identified, categorized into economic, environmental, and socio-institutional dimensions of sustainability. Findings highlight the significance of agri-food district organization for local and regional policies in line with the new CAP. The paper proposes actions to strengthen district capacity building, focusing on internal governance and sustainable production chains. These actions aim to promote sustainability and competitiveness while addressing governance, innovation, branding, demographic, and environmental challenges. The innovative aspects of this study lie especially in its methodological approach, integration of theory and practice, holistic perspective, policy relevance, and critical inquiry, which collectively contribute to advancing knowledge and understanding in the field of sustainable agriculture and territorial development.
By Serena Tarangioli; CREA-Politiche e Bioeconomia, Roma    Roberto Henke; CREA-Politiche e Bioeconomia, Roma    Giampiero Mazzocchi; CREA-Politiche e Bioeconomia, Roma    Federica Cisilino; CREA-Politiche e Bioeconomia, Udine    Francesco Licciardo; CREA-Politiche e Bioeconomia, Milano
Presented by: Giampiero Mazzocchi, CREA-Politiche e Bioeconomia, Roma
Session 12: FOOD DEMAND POLICIES FOR SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Michela Faccioli, Università di Trento
Can we nudge sustainable food consumption? A field experiment at the University of Urbino Carlo Bo canteens Abstract Food waste has become a serious worldwide problem due to its considerable impact on the environment and climate, especially referring to resource consumption (energy and non-energy) and greenhouse gas emissions. FAO has estimated that global food waste is responsible for 3.3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent emissions and that it ranks as the third CO2 emitter, after the US and China. The paper analyses the results of a field experiment run at the university canteens of the University of Urbino Carlo Bo (Italy) during the academic year 2022/2023. We provided an information nudge about the negative environmental consequences of food waste to induce canteen users to change their consumption habits, by choosing a reduced meal instead of a full portion. The information was provided first by email (“far-from-action”) and then at the canteen level (“close-to-action”). Results based on very rich administrative longitudinal microdata on the universe of students’ meal choices (about 130k in a semester) suggest that on-site information provision has a strong and large effect in terms of decreasing food waste, so we can suppose an indirect reduction in CO2 emissions, energy and water footprint of food.
By Gian Italo Bischi; Università di Urbino    Stefano Calboli; University of Minho    Chiara Lodi; Università di Urbino    Susanna Mancinelli; Università di Ferrara    Giovanni Marin; Università di Urbino    Elena Viganò; Università di Urbino    Mariangela Zoli; Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Presented by: Chiara Lodi, Università di Urbino
Unveiling Shades of Green Food Beyond Labels. Evidence from an Online Information Experiment To Climate Adaptation Abstract We investigate the role of information strategy in shifting the purchasing preferences of “green” organic consumers towards a subset of “greener” products that foster adaptation to climate change. We focus on organic pasta, a widely consumed food, to conduct a field experiment that involves consumers purchasing on the online shop of an Italian organic brand leader. Consumers are exposed to two different informative messages about an ancient durum wheat cultivar, which has been proven to be more tolerant to drought compared to modern durum wheat. The colloquial message results in 13% increase in the market share of “greener” pasta despite a price premium to pay for it. The science-based message is effective only for consumers who purchase organic food primarily for environmental sustainability and trust science as their daily source of information. Overall effects persist for at least three months and are more pronounced among women, young individuals, and those with higher levels of education. Potential moral licensing is detected among the “greenest” consumers who are already highly engaged.
By Cecilia Castaldo; Gran Sasso Science Institute    Matilde Giaccherini; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Giacomo Pallante; Università di Trento    Alessandro Palma; Gran Sasso Science Institute
Presented by: Cecilia Castaldo, Gran Sasso Science Institute
Implications of Carbon Policies on the Quality of UK Consumers' Diet and Nutrition Abstract There is increasing recognition that food markets should be regulated to reduce the environmental impact of diets. Environmental impact and nutritional quality are not perfect complements in foods: while fresh fruits and vegetables are low in fats and have lower GHG emissions compared to most food products, they can be low in other essential nutrients. Similarly, soft drinks are generally considered unhealthy, but are low in carbon footprint. Therefore, a diet which has a lower environmental impact may be nutritionally imbalanced. This paper seeks to extend our present understanding of food policies by exploring the link between environmental regulation of food markets and the quality of the resulting diets. The aim is to model the effects of two hypothetical carbon reforms on the prices of foods and drinks and how these affect household consumption and human nutrition. A simple carbon tax, scenario (A), where prices were increased proportionally to the carbon content of foods; and a Bonus-Malus tax, scenario (B), where carbon tax revenues were recycled into the economy in the form of a flat carbon subsidy. Finding suggests that dietary changes induced by Bonus-Malus interventions can reduce the GHG emissions of diets bringing some beneficial nutritional outcomes.
By Elena Benedetti; Università di Bologna    Luca Panzone; Newcastle University    Chris Seal; Newcastle University    John Wildman; Newcastle University
Presented by: Elena Benedetti, Università di Bologna
The impact of carbon taxation and carbon labelling on greenhouse gas emissions and welfare in food demand Abstract Food production and consumption account for more than a third of global greenhouse gas emissions. Policies such as carbon taxation and carbon labelling can help consumers to internalize their pollution externality by substituting carbon intensive products with less polluting ones. In order to investigate the welfare impacts of these policies, we use the data from a survey introducing in a randomized controlled experiment these policies in a simulated online supermarket, on a representative sample of the UK population. We employ the Exact Affine Stone Index model to estimate demand elasticities, while accounting for censoring in the consumption choices. We then calculate the welfare effects for a range of policy scenarios. We find that the application of carbon labels leads to a 5.77% decrease in the carbon content of the average food basket. A £60 per CO2e ton tax on the most carbon intensive products would yield a 10.57% reduction in the carbon footprint, which is equivalent to a loss in welfare of £71.78 per person per year with respect to the baseline scenario. However, combining carbon taxation and carbon labelling would allow to reach the same decrease in CO2e content with a tax rate of 30.16 per CO2e ton, corresponding to a £33.13 welfare loss. These results imply that carbon taxation and carbon labelling can be complementary policies to abate GHG emissions while limiting the negative impact on welfare.
By Marco Tomasi; Università di Trento    Michela Faccioli; Università di Trento    Carlo Fezzi; Università di Trento    Ian J. Bateman; University of Exeter
Presented by: Michela Faccioli, Università di Trento
Session 13: TAXATION October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Raffaella Coppier, Università di Macerata
To bequeath, or not to bequeath? On labor income risk and top wealth concentration Abstract Recent theoretical advances suggest that capital income risk, rather than earnings uncertainty, is the key determinant of fat-tailed behavior of stationary wealth distributions. I provide novel insights into this issue in a standard incomplete market model of intergenerational wealth transmission, where parental altruism and unobservable idiosyncratic shocks engender non-linear bequest rules. I analytically pin down restrictions on the preference structure and economic fundamentals under which optimal bequest behavior hampers intergenerational wealth transmission for any degree of capital income risk, causing the dynamics of wealth to converge to a unique (stationary) distribution with bounded support. These results imply, in particular, that (i) labour income taxation may play a role in defining the structure of the upper tail of the limit distribution of wealth, and that (ii) further necessary conditions in the model economy under scrutiny are to be fulfilled to allow capital income risk produce theoretical wealth distributions with tails as fat as those observed in the data.
By Marco Maria Sorge; Università di Salerno
Presented by: Marco Maria Sorge, Università di Salerno
Exploring the Effects of Reduced Rates Of VAT on Redistribution and Tax Compliance Abstract This paper analyzes reduced Value-Added Tax (VAT) rates in the European Union countries, considering their role in balancing revenue generation and social equity. This role is contentious. Indeed, while reduced rates might partially counterbalance the regressive nature of consumption taxes, detractors contend they generate unintentional redistribution and enable tax evasion - hence generating costs that might exceed their benefits. This study conducts a quantitative assessment evaluating the effectiveness of reduced VAT rates in redistributing resources as well as the extent to which they could increase the compliance gap. When comparing the benefits from reduced VAT rates against their costs, we conclude that reduced VAT rates are, in general, a cost-ineffective policy. Correcting for the inefficiency-cost we estimate they cause, in terms of compliance gap, would allow to largely compensate for the overall small benefits that they generate, in terms of redistribution to poorest households.
By Federica Lanterna; Università Roma Tre    Mattia Ricci; European Commission
Presented by: Federica Lanterna, Università Roma Tre
The Effect of Consumer Information on Tax-Pass Through Abstract We test theoretical predictions regarding the pass-through of tax changes in relation to the degree of price-information held by consumers. Theory predicts the better informed consumers are in a market, the higher the tax pass-through of firms. The analysis is conducted on a tax decrease for gasoline prices in Germany 2022. Consumer information is measured on the firm level, by utilizing online search queries of a large price comparison website. We give theoretical predictions and test hypotheses in two stages. We find a positive effect of consumer information on tax pass-through, increasing the effectiveness of the policy. The marginal effect of consumer information is highest in low competition markets, as well as higher pass-through rates in overall more competitive markets. Lastly, we document higher pass-through rates in the long run.
By Lukas Brunninger; Vienna University of Economics and Business    Lydia Dimitrakopoulou; Vienna University of Economics and Business    Klaus Gugler; Vienna University of Economics and Business
Presented by: Lukas Brunninger, Vienna University of Economics and Business
Dimensional traps in evasion models and their effects on industrial structure Abstract Size-dependent firms’ monitoring by the State leads to sub-optimal results in terms of combating evasion and efficient allocation of investment by firms. While Coppier et al. (2022) describes how such a policy can be a source of dimensional trap in a single-firm evasion model, in the present paper we move to a heterogeneous context, considering industrial structures composed of many firms with different sizes. We then propose a discrete-time nondeterministic dynamic model to describe the consequences of size-dependent policies and potential dimensional traps on industrial structure and its evolution over time. We show that an unwise choice of policy parameters may determine a long-run equilibrium industrial structure characterized by a small number of large firms and a plethora of small firms, with the latter being marked by inefficient resource allocation and non-compliant behavior with regard to tax regulations. These results are robust to different choices of the initial industrial structure suggesting alternative policy indications.
By Raffaella Coppier; Università di Macerata    Elisabetta Michetti; Università di Macerata    Luisa Scaccia; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Raffaella Coppier, Università di Macerata
Session 14: FINANCIAL LITERACY October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Massimiliano Stacchini, Banca d'Italia
Preferences for Sustainable Investing: The Role of Financial Literacy Abstract This paper investigates the preferences for sustainable investing to understand to what extent individuals invest in Socially Responsible Investments (SRIs) for their social/environmental impact, irrespective of the monetary return, or, instead, they invest in SRIs because of a higher expected return. By conducting a survey on a representative sample of Italian adults, we study the role of financial literacy on the willingness to invest in SRIs and the choice of a product whose financial return is spent for community or environmental projects. In particular, we test if financial literacy acts as a driver to SRIs and if the social/environmental component is an additional element in the standard preference structure that looks at risk-return trade-off only. Our results show that more financially literate individuals are not only more aware of the ESG concept, but also display a greater inclination towards investing in these products, provided that the financial returns are not much lower than traditional investments. However, we observe a negative association between financial literacy and investment opportunities that focus on financing social or environmental projects instead of yielding a monetary return.
By Elisa Castagno; Università di Torino e Collegio Carlo Alberto    Noemi Oggero; Università di Torino    Mariacristina Rossi; COVIP
Presented by: Noemi Oggero, Università di Torino
Financial literacy of micro-entrepreneurs and access to credit Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between the financial literacy of micro-entrepreneurs and their access to bank credit, drawing on data from a survey conducted by the Bank of Italy in 2021 among a representative sample of business owners of Italian companies with fewer than 10 employees. Conditioning on the need for external finance, we explore whether micro-entrepreneurs’ financial literacy influences (i) the propensity to apply for the needed bank loan, and (ii) the probability that a bank grants the requested loan. We find that micro-entrepreneurs with higher financial literacy are more likely to apply for a loan, i.e., they are less likely to be “discouraged borrowers”. However, for those who apply for a loan, financial competences have no effect on the chances of obtaining it. We also shed light on two mechanisms behind the relationship between financial literacy and borrowers’ discouragement. Entrepreneurs with higher financial literacy are more likely to seek the help of a professional advisor and to be aware of the existence of public guarantees schemes in support of SMEs’ access to credit, which in turn improve the chances of applying for a bank loan. These results hold either if we measure entrepreneurs’ financial literacy using various indicators (included objective measures of financial knowledge), or if we use the IV approach to account for the potential endogeneity of financial literacy.
By Riccardo Calcagno; Politecnico di Torino    Paolo Finaldi Russo; Banca d'Italia    Ludovica Galotto; Banca d'Italia    Anita Quas; Università di Milano
Presented by: Ludovica Galotto, Banca d'Italia
Youth characteristics, overconfidence and take-up to voluntary financial education programs Abstract Voluntary financial education programs are usually characterised by a low take-up, which significantly undermines their benefits for the whole society. Such low participation rate is caused by both economic and behavioral barriers. In this paper we focus on the latter and investigate the role of overconfidence. We devise an experiment involving about 350 university students and study the effectiveness of two alternative methods that could be employed to mitigate such behavioral bias and increase the take-up rate: the first one aims to mitigate overconfidence by increasing students' knowledge, while the second aims at lowering people confidence by directly confronting them with difficult questions. While we find that the first method is effective, our results are inconclusive about the second. Moreover, people's curiosity and expectations about their future income play a crucial role in the decision to attend financial education programs.
By Alessio D'Ignazio; Banca d'Italia    Stefania Merone; University of Oxford
Presented by: Alessio D'Ignazio, Banca d'Italia
The use of robo-advising in Italy: evidence from a new survey Abstract Robo-advising (the delivery and execution of financial advice through automated algorithms on digital platforms) can reduce individuals' behavioral biases by making financial choices more informed and rational. On the other hand, robo-advising may widen disparities within the population, disadvantaging those who do not have access to digital channels or cannot afford the costs of the services. This study utilizes data from a survey conducted in 2023 by the Bank of Italy on approximately 5000 individuals representative of the adult population residing in Italy to: (i) investigate the characteristics of robo-advising users, including financial knowledge and financial investment choices; (ii) explore the complementary or substitutive links that may exist between the use of robo-advising on one hand, and traditional (human) financial advice and users’ financial knowledge on the other.
By Massimiliano Stacchini; Banca d'Italia    Pietro Vassallo; Banca d'Italia
Presented by: Pietro Vassallo, Banca d'Italia
Session 15: TRADE October 24, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Luca Lodi, Università di Firenze
E pluribus plures. Shock dependency of the USD trade elasticities Abstract This paper quantifies the pass-through of a US dollar appreciation to trade volumes across 34 countries. Pass-through coefficients are highly shock-dependent: following US expansionary shock, the positive effects of stronger global demand -the "real" channel- dominate the negative effects of a stronger dollar -the "exchange rate" channel. As a result, a positive US demand (supply)-drive appreciation expands global trade up to 2.2 (2.5), while if the appreciation is driven by a monetary policy shock the sign is opposite, leading to a contraction in the order of 2.5% (3%) depending on the country. Trade elasticities are also largely heterogeneous across countries; we find that financial and trade exposure to the US, trade openness and USD invoicing explain up to 60% of the USD pass-through after demand and supply shocks. Cross-country differences, instead, are not explained by dollar invoicing if monetary policy or risk shocks determine USD movements. We explain this finding with the endogenous policy reaction of monetary authorities in emerging markets that stabilizes the exchange rate against the dollar and weakens the invoicing channel of dollar shocks.
By Massimo Ferrari Minesso; European Central Bank    Johannes Gräb; European Central Bank
Presented by: Massimo Ferrari Minesso, European Central Bank
Incentives for quality, collective reputation and trade in a world of heterogeneous firms. The case of wine Abstract We consider an extension of the standard model of monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms from Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) into several directions. On the demand side, utility depends on perceived quality, that is on a convex combination of individual firm’s quality and of collective reputation. The weight on the individual firm quality increases with the degree of awareness of the representative consumer in the destination market. If the consumer is relatively unaware (new market), the collective or ‘national’ reputation has a bigger role in perceived quality. On the supply side, we introduce the possibility of endogenous quality choice as in Antoniades (2015), but with a more general specification to obtain correlations between sizes, sales, prices and qualities that match the European wine sector. The model enables to show how market toughness affects firm’s behavior, such as the scope for quality differentiation. We show, among other things, that investment in quality and firms that behave as quality leaders change with the degree of consumers’ expertise in the destination markets, and in a positive but decreasing fashion. Using cross- sectional firm’s level data, we find that wine quality, collective reputation and consumer expertise are indeed important in making exporting more likely (extensive margins), in exporting different products, and (to some extent) also in exporting more (intensive margins). Overall, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the degree of expertise in destination markets do not have an effect on the firms that export and the product they do export. This seems to suggest that the endogenous quality model we propose better fits the data at hand.
By Philippe Bontems; Toulouse School of Economics    Diego Lubian; Università di Verona    Angelo Zago; Università di Verona
Presented by: Angelo Zago, Università di Verona
New export specializations, structural transformation and path-dependence: new evidence and methodologies Abstract The road to development is inextricably related to the process of shifting the scarce resources available in a country to new sectors/products with higher level of productivity. Many countries face challenges in engineering this process of upgrading and diversification of their economy away from a specialization in commodities or other products associated to a low level of productivity. While most studies have investigated the country-level dimensions which facilitate or hamper diversification, in this paper we firstly shift our focus on product-level characteristics and then use a novel approach to build new indicators that are able to analyze the degree of vulnerability and the pattern of diversification (path-defying versus path-dependent) of countries. By employing concepts and methodologies related to Hidalgo et al (2007) and Coniglio et al (2021) we answer to the following research questions: i)How frequently countries develop a new trade specialization in a specific product? For which products specialization is a ‘rare’ (‘frequent’) event? Which countries tend to specialize in ‘rare’ specialization products? How contestable is countries current specialization? ii)For which products we observe a higher degree of path-dependency? In other words, which trade specialization is relatively more constrained by what a country produces today – i.e. its current comparative advantage? The answers to the above questions provide important information for the effective implementation of structural transformation policies as the ability to diversify away from the current comparative advantage is likely to depend not only on countries existing capabilities but also on how these capabilities constrains the development of specific sectors/products. We present two novel metrics at the product and country level. The index of path departure (IPD) which measures the extent of deviation from path-dependent diversification for each of the 1241 products of the HS trade classification and, using information on new entries in the export basket, for each country in the world economy. The Index of Structural Vulnerability (ISV) which measures the ‘vulnerability’ of countries current specialization to foreign competition. In the last part of this work, we estimate growth models in order to test how these new metrics are related to countries economic performances. We find supporting evidence that countries with a higher degree of path-departure of new entries and lower initial structural vulnerability of their export baskets have a better economic performance.
By Nicola Daniele Coniglio; Università di Bari    Rezart Hoxhaj; Ghent University    Davide Vurchio; Università di Bari
Presented by: Davide Vurchio, Università di Bari
Population Density and Countries' Export Performance: A Supply-Side Structural Gravity with Unilateral Variables Abstract This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the effect of population density on international trade through a theoretical and empirical framework. By drawing on the works of Allen and Arkolakis (2014) and Allen et al. (2020), the study derives a structural gravity model to identify the impact of country-specific features on bilateral exports. It also offers a theoretical interpretation of Heid et al. (2021) empirical approach, which addresses challenges related to perfect collinearity and multilateral resistance terms in controlling for unilateral policy variables. The research focuses on population density as a key component of productivity and agglomeration forces, exploring the hypothesis that it influences country specialization. The spatial distribution of production factors within a country is thought to affect comparative advantages, leading to varying degrees of specialization in labor-intensive or natural resource-dependent industries. Examining the implications of population concentration on the domestic economy’s supply side, the study contributes to the discussion on density and agglomeration at macro-level scales. The framework bridges elements from the New Economic Geography and quantitative spatial economics, providing an innovative approach to analyzing the role of geography in trade. Preliminary findings suggest that population density significantly impacts labor-intensive industries like Manufacturing while showing a negative association with natural resources-dependent sectors such as Mining. However, further investigation is required to understand its influence on Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries.
By Luca Lodi; Università di Firenze
Presented by: Luca Lodi, Università di Firenze
Session 16: Almuneda Sevilla (London School of Economics and Political Science) - Paradigm Shifts in Gender Economics: A New Era October 24, 2024 15:30 to 16:30 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Elena Cefis, Università di Bergamo
Paradigm Shifts in Gender Economics: A New Era Abstract Paradigm Shifts in Gender Economics: A New Era
By Almudena Sevilla; London School of Economics and Political Science
Presented by: Almudena Sevilla, London School of Economics, LSE
Session 17: COMPLEXITY, HETEROGENEITY, AND POLICY October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Fabio Tramontana, Università di Urbino
Greenflation, Climateflation and Monetary Policy: The Dynamics of Sustainable Transition Abstract The transition to a sustainable economy necessitates significant investments in renewable energy and the mitigation of climate-related risks. This paper explores the dynamic interplay between monetary policy, renewable energy investment, and inflation dynamics in the context of climate change. We introduce the concepts of climateflation and greenflation, which represent inflationary pressures arising from climate-related challenges and the transition to a low-carbon economy, respectively. We analyze the trade-offs central banks face in addressing inflation while promoting sustainable investment. Our findings suggest a complex relationship between monetary policy, environmental factors, and economic dynamics, highlighting the need for a holistic approach to mitigate climate risks while managing inflationary pressures. Through equilibrium analysis and simulations, we provide insights into the potential implications of different policy interventions on the transition to a sustainable and resilient economy.
By Andrea Bacchiocchi; Università di Urbino    Federico Favaretto; Università di Urbino    Germana Giombini; Università di Urbino    Fabio Tramontana; Università di Urbino
Presented by: Andrea Bacchiocchi, Università di Urbino
Modelling green attitudes and informality along the North–South divide Abstract Public perceptions of the urgency of fighting climate change differ between countries and have fluctuated over time. Heterogeneity in ecological thinking poses a problem because limiting global warming requires cohesion and coordination among the socioeconomic system's leading players in developed and developing countries. Most studies in the field have wrongly treated advanced and emerging economies as similar systems in different positions of a linear development path. Developing economies are structurally different as they are populated by a large informal sector that accounts for up to half of economic activity. The role of the informal sector in economic development remains controversial, let alone the implications of its existence to a successful green transition. We present a macrodynamic model to study the interplay between informality and heterogeneity in ecological thinking. The model explains the endogenous emergence of four stable equilibria. Two have minor informality but significant differences in green attitudes. We refer to them as the US vs Europe cases, which capture the state of affairs in the Global North. In the other two, informality prevails, but we observe sharp differences in general support for mitigation policies, resembling an Asia vs Latin America scenario. Studying the basins of attraction allows us to provide policymakers with insights into the social dimension of climate change in the Global South.
By Marwil Dávila-Fernández; Università di Siena    Mario Davila-Davila; Federal University of Sao Joao del Rei
Presented by: Marwil Dávila-Fernández, Università di Siena
An evolutive model of boundedly rational consumer with changing preferences and reference group consumption Abstract In this paper, two dynamic models, recently proposed to describe the adaptive repeated choices of a boundedly rational consumer, are joined together. One considers a consumer adjusting the consumption level of a given good over time according to the observed discrepancy between expected and realized utility gain and modifies the utility function according to past consumption experience, also including saturation e¤ects when past consumption is excessive. The other one considers the same adjustment mechanism with constant preferences but with a behavioral effect that introduces a tendency (or bias) to imitate a reference group of consumers. Merging these two models a two-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system is obtained which describes consumers that decide their next period consumption of a given good by following two di¤erent (sometimes contrasting) criteria: their own utility maximization on one side and imitation of a reference group of consumers on the other side. This leads to a greater uncertainty with respect to the model without the behavioral bias. Such uncertainty is studied through a numerical exploration of the long run dynamics, guided by some global dynamical features of the nonlinear model, such as the folding action of the critical curves that characterize the behavior of the iterated noninvertible map and the singularities related to the presence of a vanishing denominator, namely focal points and prefocal curves. So, the aim of the paper is twofold: on one side it tries to contribute to the literature on economic theory of boundedly rational consumers represented by evolutionary and behavioral approaches; on the other side it tries to contribute to the recent literature about the global analysis of discrete dynamical systems characterized by contact bifurcations leading to the creation of complex topological structures of the attractors and their basins of attraction.
By Gian Italo Bischi; Università di Urbino    Fabio Tramontana; Università di Urbino
Presented by: Fabio Tramontana, Università di Urbino
Session 18: MAKING SENSE OF THE FIVE CRITICAL PILLARS: A MANIFESTO FOR ECONOMICS RENAISSANCE October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Making sense of the five critical pillars: a Manifesto for economics renaissance Abstract In this paper we recognize and discuss the responsibility of the economic discipline in the current serious problems afflicting the economy, society and the planet. The old mainstream view (which is gradually fading away) was based on five critical pillars/hypotheses (homo oeconomicus, profit maximization, the sufficiency of GDP to encapsulate welfare, the abandonment of grassroots social action, isolation in silos that undermines the quality of knowledge and the civic engagement of researchers). We show that the five critical pillars are challenged by empirical evidence and have, in theory, the effect of producing sub-optimal (social, economic and welfare) outcomes. The adoption of a broader paradigm, which goes beyond the reductionist view of human beings, companies, welfare indicators, political actors and the knowledge structure/role of researchers, is a necessary step. This will trigger, in our view, energies and forces that can sustain social and economic progress, while fostering sustainable interaction between human beings and between humanity and planet Earth.
By Leonardo Becchetti; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Mario Biggeri; Università di Firenze    Alessio Emanuele Biondo; Università di Catania    Marcella Corsi; Sapienza Università di Roma    Marco Cucculelli; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Marusca De Castris; Università Roma Tre    Giovanni Ferri; Università LUMSA    Giulio Guarini; Università della Tuscia    Marcello Signorelli; Università di Perugia    Alessandra Venturini; Università di Torino
Presented by: Leonardo Becchetti, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Mario Biggeri, Università di Firenze
Alessio Emanuele Biondo, Università di Catania
Marcella Corsi, Sapienza Università di Roma
Marco Cucculelli, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Marusca De Castris, Università Roma Tre
Giovanni Ferri, Università LUMSA
Giulio Guarini, Università della Tuscia
Marcello Signorelli, Università di Perugia
Alessandra Venturini, Università di Torino
Discussants:      Mario Pianta, Scuola Normale Superiore      Roberto Cellini, Università di Catania
Session 19: PUBBLICARE A INIZIO CARRIERA NELLE RIVISTE INTERNAZIONALI October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)
Session Chair: Alessandro Sapio, Università di Napoli Parthenope
Industrial and Corporate Change Abstract Industrial and Corporate Change
By Luigi Marengo; LUISS Guido Carli
Presented by: Luigi Marengo, LUISS Guido Carli
L'Industria Abstract L'Industria
By Francesca Spigarelli; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Francesca Spigarelli, Università di Macerata
Italian Economic Journal Abstract Italian Economic Journal
By Alessandro Sapio; Università di Napoli Parthenope
Presented by: Alessandro Sapio, Università di Napoli Parthenope
Eurasian Business Review Abstract Eurasian Business Review
By Marco Vivarelli; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Marco Vivarelli, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Session 20: ESG October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Gianluca Gucciardi, Università di Milano-Bicocca
Get rid of the score! ESG risk and sustainable finance Abstract Despite the spiking pressures on financial institutions to integrate ESG factors into their portfolio strategies, evidence suggests that this integration is often limited to ESG screening, that is, focusing on top performers according to the aggregated ESG score, when not altogether absent. The consolidated literature presents challenged evidence of ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) scores being effective indicators in differentiating corporations. Three possible reasons could hinder the possibility of disclosing relevant information: disclosure used incorrectly as a measure of performance, the opaque weighting of disclosed information and finally, the additivity problem. This work's contribution is twofold. Distance-to-Default (DtD) is used as the dependent variable as an alternative to stock-based measures. Secondly, it found the raw components of ESG that increase the DtD the most using a demeaned LASSO regression. The data is a cross-section of ESG disclosing firms in 2022, retrieved on Datastream. The DtD is calculated according to the Starmine algorithm. The results indicate that scores related to controversies (Governance) and sustainable stakeholders (Sustainability) reduce credit risk. However, some ESG raw indicators are found to reduce DtD.
By Giovanni Guastella; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Matteo Mazzarano; Università di Siena    Stefano Pareglio; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Matteo Mazzarano, Università di Siena
ESG performance and Stock Market Responses to Geopolitical Turmoil: evidence from the Russia-Ukraine war Abstract Since the Paris Agreement of 2015, firms have been asked to enhance their commitment to ethical, environmental, and social responsibility by many different stakeholders. This movement seeks, alongside minimum required financial returns, positive contributions to the planet and society as a whole. However, these types of practices and investments are threatened by an increase in geopolitical risk, such as the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, given the interconnectedness between political events and responsible investing. In this paper, we analyze a global cross-section of stock price reactions to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, specifically differentiating companies by country, industry, and ESG characteristics. By employing an event study methodology approach on a global sample of more than 17 thousand firms, the empirical analysis unveils, on average, a negative stock market reaction in the days around the event, with the only exception being US firms. Nonetheless, different patterns of stock market response are identified, most of which are country-sector specific. We also demonstrate that ESG performance seems to be a moderating factor, as firms with higher industry-adjusted ESG scores obtain less negative CARs.
By Simone Boccaletti; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Paolo Maranzano; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Caterina Morelli; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Elisa Ossola; Università di Milano-Bicocca
Presented by: Simone Boccaletti, Università di Milano-Bicocca
Green Risk in Europe Abstract Climate change poses serious economic, financial, and social challenges to humanity, and green transition policies are now actively implemented in many industrialized countries. Whether financial markets price climate risks is critical to ensuring that the necessary funding flows into environmentally sound projects and that stranded assets risk is adequately managed. In this paper, we assess climate risks for the European stock market within the context of Alessi et al. (2023) greenness and transparency factor. We show that measures of returns spreads of green vs. brown investment might reflect climate risks and assets' exposition to systematic macro-financial risk factors. These latter factors should be filtered out to measure climate risks accurately. We show that climate risks are priced in the European stock market by focusing on aggregate, industry, and company-level data. We propose a market-based green rating procedure, which might be of particular interest to evaluate non-transparent and non-disclosing companies for which ESG information is unavailable. We illustrate its implementation using a sample of over 800 non-transparent firms.
By Nuno Cassola; University of Lisbon e CefES, Università di Milano-Bicocca    Claudio Morana; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Elisa Ossola; Università di Milano-Bicocca
Presented by: Elisa Ossola, Università di Milano-Bicocca
Common factors behind companies’ Environmental ratings Abstract The increasing interest in sustainability within economics and finance has led to the widespread adoption of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) metrics, expressed as ratings or indices, for assessing firms’ sustainable performance. However, inconsistencies among data providers stem not only from definitional differences but also from disagreements in measuring ESG factors. This paper proposes a novel approach by conversely focusing on ESG factors that are common to data providers. Through three empirical approaches—correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and panel data regressions—we aim to understand the structural components shaping ESG metrics, particularly in the Environmental Pillar. Our findings emphasize a limited number of indicators that act as common factors across three providers, primarily concerning the management of natural resources. Despite their shared thematic focus, these indicators are approached with different perspectives—such as risk management, corporate impact management, and integration into corporate strategy—depending on the provider. This analysis offers valuable insights for companies, financial institutions, practitioners, scholars, and policymakers, enabling a more concise set of information for analyses and decision-making in their respective fields.
By Gianluca Gucciardi; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Elisa Ossola; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Lucia Parisio; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Matteo Pelagatti; Università di Milano-Bicocca
Presented by: Gianluca Gucciardi, Università di Milano-Bicocca
Session 21: REGIONS IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY (with AISRe - Associazione Italiana di Scienze Regionali) October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Eleonora Pierucci, Università Roma Tre
Distributing EU funds in places with weak and/or corrupt local institutions Abstract This study presents the first analysis of how the quality of local institutions affects the distribution of EU resources to private beneficiaries, public entities, and local governments. We use high-quality Italian administrative data —including instances of city council dismissals due to financial mismanagement, serious legal infringements, and collusion between local politicians and organised crime— to assess local institutional quality. These factors reflect the effectiveness and efficiency of local bureaucracy, compliance with the rule of law, and the level of corruption. We apply a staggered difference-in-differences model to uncover the different impacts of institutional deficiencies on the distribution of EU funds. The results show that corrupt local governments are allocated fewer resources for their own use in comparison with their non-corrupt (or less corrupt) counterparts. These outcomes have significant policy implications, stemming from the tendency of corrupt local governments to favour securing smaller EU projects that are less stringently regulated by Italian laws designed to fight organised crime.
By Marco Di Cataldo; London School of Economics and Political Science    Elena Renzullo; London School of Economics and Political Science e Università Ca'Foscari    Andrés Rodriguez-Pose; London School of Economics and Political Science
Presented by: Elena Renzullo, London School of Economics and Political Science e Università Ca'Foscari
EU's Role in Regional Policies: boon or bane for success? Abstract Cohesion policy is an important cornerstone of European integration. Beyond the financial aspects, it relies on rules and procedures governing the design and execution of programs. This paper studies the extent to which European governance produces benefits for the regions receiving the transfers that would not occur if the policy were managed at the national and non-EU level. Elaborating on a quasi-natural experiment, whereby some funded projects were switched from EU to national programming after 2011 in Italy, we show that European rules and procedures produce benefits in terms of financial execution, which are stronger when the territories where they are implemented are characterized by low institutional quality.
By Viviana Celli; Sapienza Università di Roma    Riccardo Crescenzi; London School of Economics and Political Science    Guido de Blasio; Banca d'Italia    Mara Giua; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Viviana Celli, Sapienza Università di Roma
Study on the effectiveness of COVID aid on firms Abstract The study examines the impact of COVID State aid measures (COVID aid) on firm performance for three Member States, for which national state aid registers are available. These data on aid recipients are merged with balance sheet data obtained from Bureau Van Dijk to create a panel of firms covering the period 2017-2021. The performance indicators analysed are turnover and probability of default. To assess the causal effect of the aid, a difference-in-differences approach is used, comparing firms that received only COVID aid with firms that did not receive any State aid during the period under analysis, thus excluding beneficiaries of other types of aid. Propensity score matching weighting (PSM) is used to account for pre-existing differences in financial characteristics between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries that are likely to determine the probability of receiving aid. The basic model is estimated across different categories of (pre-crisis) firm size, economic sector and type of financial instrument received to assess the heterogeneity of impacts. The results show that, on average, COVID state aid led to a statistically significant increase in firms' turnover in 2021, suggesting that the aid helped firms to remain active despite the slack caused by the COVID crisis. However, aid recipients also experienced a slight increase in their probability of default in the same year. The impact of COVID aid also appears to be heterogeneous across countries, sectors, and firm size and according to the instrument adopted.
By Giulia Canzian; European Commission and CESifo    Elena Crivellaro; OECD    Tomaso Duso; DIW Berlin, TU Berlin, CEPR, CESifo    Antonella Rita Ferrara; Università della Calabria    Alessandro Sasso; European Commission    Stefano Verzillo; European Commission
Presented by: Antonella Rita Ferrara, Università della Calabria
The Effectiveness of European Structural and Investment Funds across European NUTS2 Regions. Institutional and Structural Determinants Abstract The effectiveness of cohesion policies implemented through the European Structural and Investment Funds (SFs) is essential for the construction of a more resilient Europe. In this paper we analyse the impact of various types of SFs on the economies of 262 European NUTS2 regions during three programming cycles (2000-2006, 2007-2013 and 2014-2020). We estimate the SFs’ average partial effects through an inverse probability weighting approach incorporating the funds’ allocation rules. Furthermore, we assess the role of institutional and structural factors in determining differences in SF effectiveness across region groups Our evidence implies that SFs had a significant impact on regional GDP per capita, with the Cohesion Fund and the European Regional Development Fund taking a salient role. A higher quality of the regional environment is generally associated with a stronger impact of SFs, especially for the ERDF. Results for financial indicators of managerial capability are less consistent across region groups, highlighting a lack of foundation for one-size-fits-all policy prescriptions about the financial management of SFs.
By Gianluigi Coppola; Università di Salerno    Sergio Destefanis; Università di Salerno    Giorgia Marinuzzi; IFEL-Fondazione ANCI    Walter Tortorella; IFEL-Fondazione ANCI
Presented by: Sergio Destefanis, Università di Salerno
Session 22: NOVEL PERSPECTIVE IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS (with IAERE - Associazione Italiana Economisti dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse Naturali) October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Valeria Costantini, Università Roma Tre
Unequal contributions to CO2 emissions along the income distribution within and between countries Abstract The question of whether changes in income inequality affect CO2 emissions remains a topic of debate at both theoretical and empirical levels. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of changes in the full spectre of income distribution on consumption-based CO2 emissions per capita. To do so, we estimate a dynamic difference-GMM model and a dynamic threshold regression model allowing for endogeneity on a panel database covering 107 countries between 1990 and 2019. Our analysis highlights how different income classes contribute very differently to consumption-based CO2 emissions. In addition, by accounting for between-country inequalities in the average income of each income group, we uncover non-linearities in the impact on carbon emissions. More specifically, the impact of an increase in the income share of the top 10% on per capita consumption-based carbon emissions varies according to their average income level: it is negative at lower income levels and becomes positive as their income rises. The contribution of the middle class is negative at all income levels, while the CO2 contribution of the poorest segments is negligible.
By Federica Cappelli; Università di Ferrara
Presented by: Federica Cappelli, Università di Ferrara
Do firms care about peers when choosing to go circular? Peer effect among Italian firms in the adoption of circular innovation Abstract The challenges posed by achieving a circular economy necessitate the adoption of innovative practices that are not merely green but are specifically related to closing, narrowing, and extending resource cycles. Understanding the relationship between eco-innovation and circular innovation and the factors favouring their implementation is, therefore, pivotal. This paper takes a step forward in the study of the determinants of firms’ adoption of circular innovation by analysing the role of social norms and peer comparison. Drawing upon the literature that confirms the influence of the social context on firms’ decisions to innovate, the paper enriches the analysis with recent evidence on the effect of peers on firm decision-making. The present study aims to investigate the effect of peers’ behaviour on firms’ decisions to adopt circular innovation, using survey data collected on Italian manufacturing small and medium enterprises in 2017-2018 and 2019-2020. The final sample comprises 4565 firms for the first biennium and 4649 for the second one. The empirical analysis reveals a positive relationship between increased investment in circular innovation by peers and firms’ decisions to innovate in the same domain. Social norm information and peer comparison can complement traditional market and regulatory instruments for promoting circular innovation adoption.
By Davide Antonioli; Università di Ferrara    Elisa Chioatto; Università di Ferrara    Susanna Mancinelli; Università di Ferrara    Francesco Nicolli; Università di Ferrara
Presented by: Elisa Chioatto, Università di Ferrara
Assessing the impacts of armed conflict and natural disasters on vulnerability: a Machine Learning approach Abstract Armed conflicts have been associated with a variety of detrimental impacts on human security and development, and represent a crucial vector of societal vulnerability to subsequent climate hazards. The burgeoning literature on climate security has highlighted that climate variability and natural disasters may indirectly increase conflict risk in vulnerable locations. However, solid knowledge of the impacts of armed conflicts on socio-economic vulnerability remains sparse, and more research is needed to understand the complex linkages between natural disasters, armed conflict, and societal vulnerability. This study fills the gap by empirically investigating the impacts of armed conflicts and natural disasters on subsequent levels of societal vulnerability to climate hazards. The paper uses global, time-varying data for 189 countries between 1995 and 2019, combining information on natural disasters, armed conflict, and vulnerability. We apply a leave-the-future-out cross validation and a random forest algorithm to test the out-of-sample performance of a conflict, natural disasters, and compound model, to predict vulnerability. This machine learning approach enables us to overcome some of the empirical challenges that traditional statistical methods relying on reduced form regressions fail to solve.
By Mariagrazia D'Angeli; Università Roma Tre    Paola Vesco; PRIO Research Institute
Presented by: Mariagrazia D'Angeli, Università Roma Tre
Gender and age matter! Identifying important predictors for subjective well-being using machine learning methods Abstract The main aim of well-being economics is to find a reliable indicator of progress beyond GDP. Most studies strive to identify a reliable measure or a set of measures to capture well-being at the national or individual level. However, choosing a reliable measure of well-being and quality of life must consider the relationship between the subjective and objective dimensions, considering the policy-relevant sub-national level. To better address this multidimensionality, we use algorithm-based machine learning to investigate the relationship between subjective well-being and a set of objective predictors on the sub-national level. The data employed stems from the OECD Regional Well-being Database and is expanded with those from other OECD Regional Databases and comprises air quality, unemployment, income, and people's living surroundings, aiming to predict regional self-reported life satisfaction. Surprisingly, the relevant predictors singled out by the algorithm partially come from the OECD Regional Well-being Database and include some from the other Regional Databases. The main predictors are employment, income, environmental quality, and social welfare. Besides these areas, which align with previous research, this analysis highlights the role of gender and age as relevant predictors for the subjective well-being of a region. Algorithm-based machine learning also allows us to investigate the non-linear relationships and the interactions among subjective well-being and its main predictors. This work expands the research on subjective well-being by including a usually wide range of predictors and exploring non-linearities. On top of that, the contributions should enrich the analysis of the subjective well-being of regions, including the spatial dimension.
By Marco Quatrosi; Università di Palermo    Lasare Samartzidis; Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development    Angelika von Dulong; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Presented by: Marco Quatrosi, Università di Palermo
Session 23: THE ENERGY TRANSITION. INTEGRATED SHORT AND LONG-TERM APPROACHES AND ANALYSIS October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Maria Grazia Pazienza, Università di Firenze
Definition of a coherent integrated modelling framework including energy system, macroeconomic system and household demand Abstract The success of the energy transition depends on the definition of sustainable, long-term investment planning strategies. This requires the creation of technically feasible and economically sound transition paths. Achieving this requires modelling frameworks that accurately capture the engineering complexities of the energy system and realistically represent the economic dynamics, including feedback from changes in technology and consumption patterns. This paper presents a conceptual model that effectively integrates the energy and economic system. The model starts from the energy system optimization, which describes in detail the achievable structural changes in national segments under future scenarios. These changes are then passed on to the economic models. A Stock-Flow-Consistent (SFC) macroeconomic model incorporates a demand microsimulation model focusing on household consumption, integrating elasticities and financial variables at the household level. The link between microeconomic analysis and individual consumption demand informs the energy system model, adjusting the demand for energy carriers and investment constraints. Through iterative exchanges of endogenous parameters, the integrated models converge. Comparison of the integrated model with stand-alone energy and economic models reveals significant disparities, underlining the effectiveness of this integrated approach in modelling future scenarios.
By Matteo Rocco; Politecnico di Milano    Leonardo Ghezzi; IRPET    Rossella Bardazzi; Università di Firenze
Presented by: Matteo Rocco, Politecnico di Milano
Estimating energy demand in a structural model: preserving household heterogeneity in the green transition scenarios Abstract The methodological approach used to study household choices in a decarbonisation path is based on a long-term structural demand system, using both cross-sectional data and time series. The originality of the approach lies not only in the understanding of the household disaggregation by age, which also makes it possible to identify different consumption habits, but also in the generational heterogeneity that persists at different ages. This source of heterogeneity is relevant in the economic modelling of the long-term path of the energy transition, precisely because policies will have to take into account different propensities to change energy consumption, both in relation to income and distribution aspects and in relation to socio-demographic characteristics. The demand system will therefore be able to provide not only income and price elasticities for residential and transport energy uses, with traditional fuels and less polluting sources/modes, but also the cross-elasticities triggered by changes in relative prices. It must be kept in mind, however, that the lack of recent historical precedents for the large-scale transformation of fossil-fuel based plants and transport systems with new technologies based on the use of less polluting energies makes it difficult to adapt the estimated coefficients to the transition scenarios without reasoned assumptions about how and when the new products will be diffused among consumers. On the basis of recent literature on the subject, strategies will be formulated to credibly include new products - both renewable energies and new technologies - in the consumption basket so that the impact of changing consumption choices in the medium to long term on the situation of households can be assessed together with macro-technological scenarios built on the basis of integrated models.
By Rossella Bardazzi; Università di Firenze    Maria Grazia Pazienza; Università di Firenze
Presented by: Rossella Bardazzi, Università di Firenze
Tools and policy actions to reconcile economic targets and emission abatement Abstract The recent COP28 acknowledged the shortfall in efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C as per COP21 targets. The resulting Declaration urges ambitious measures such as tripling renewable energy usage and phasing out coal in power generation. Countries are prompted to develop and deploy new technologies to curb emissions. Given the pivotal role of the energy input in production, although it is one of the largest contributors to CO2 emissions, producers face a choice between persist with fossil inputs (and thus provoking emissions) or changing the use of the input through the abatement technology. From this perspective, endogenizing the choice between the fossil energy input and the associated abatement technology cost in the economy may be a viable way to promote the energy transition. Therefore, we propose a static SAM-based CGE model that integrates the cost of CO2 abatement technology into the production cost function to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil powered plants without compromising the economic performance. We present an application for China, which is responsible for one-third of global CO2 emissions and is the world’s largest energy consumer. However, this approach may represent a best practice that can be extended to the study of environmental policies for other countries.
By Claudio Socci; Università di Macerata    Rosita Pretaroli; Università di Macerata    Francesca Severini; Università di Macerata    Stefano Deriu; Università di Macerata    Ludovica Almonti; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Ludovica Almonti, Università di Macerata
How does nuclear fit Italian long-term decarbonization strategy? An energy-system modelling perspective Abstract Italy's nuclear energy debate has been reignited by climate change, economic, and energy security concerns, especially due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite historical opposition, the Italian Integrated National Plan for Energy and Climate (PNIEC) released in late 2023 prompts a re-evaluation of nuclear power's role in achieving net-zero emissions. Utilizing a least-cost hourly optimization model for Italy's energy system until 2050, this article assesses economic and environmental impacts of potentially reintroducing nuclear technology. Initial findings under a stated policies scenario (STEPS), based on PNIEC targets, show challenges in meeting both renewable technologies capacity and declared investment budget constraints without assuming significant cost reductions of the former. Consequently, analysis proceeded without renewable capacity constraint in the STEPS scenario, comparing it with a nuclear scenario (NUC) and two net-zero emission (NZE) scenarios, with and without nuclear (NZE-NUC). All scenarios apply a carbon tax, reaching 100 €/tonCO2 in 2030, then stabilizing until 2050. Results reveal reliance on natural gas persists in STEPS, with renewables alone unable to meet high electrification rate of end-uses. The NUC scenario achieves power sector decarbonization by 2040, with nuclear plants operational from 2033, reaching 17GW by 2050. Both STEPS and NUC approach 2030 CO2 targets but fall short for 2050 neutrality. NZE scenarios, in fact, significantly employ renewables, battery storage, and DAC technology, implying higher investment costs to be sustained upfront. However, including nuclear (NZE-NUC) would lead to an employment of batteries close to STEPS, abating costs with respect to NZE. An economic perspective is also provided, showing how larger investments required by the NZE and NZE-NUC scenarios would lead to an overall lower net present cost of the system with respect to STEPS (respectively saving around 39 and 59 billion €, mostly from avoiding fuel costs), and how the NUC scenario is overall the less expensive among the four considered.
By Lorenzo Rinaldi; Politecnico di Milano    Tommaso Carmagnani; Politecnico di Milano    Matteo Rocco; Politecnico di Milano    Emanuela Colombo; Politecnico di Milano
Presented by: Lorenzo Rinaldi, Politecnico di Milano
Session 24: ECONOMICS OF INNOVATION AND CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chairs:
Andrea Ascani, Gran Sasso Science Institute
Francesco Quatraro, Università di Torino
Mapping Critical Raw Materials in Green Technologies Abstract The goal of this paper is to elaborate an empirical analysis of the relationship between Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) and environmental technologies. Using text mining techniques to parse and analyse patent descriptions, we provide a thorough empirical exploration of (i) the dependence of green technologies on CRMs; (ii) the countries that lead the demand of CRMs; and (iii) the countries that are more exposed to global demand for CRMs. Framed in the context of recent policy debates on the viability of the green transition, our study points to criticalities associated to both the evolution of green technology and to the spatial network of demand and supply of CRMs.
By Francesco de Cunzo; Università di Siena    Davide Consoli; INGENIO CSIC-UPV    François Perruchas; University of Valencia    Angelica Sbardella; Centro Studi e Ricerche Enrico Fermi
Presented by: Angelica Sbardella, Centro Studi e Ricerche Enrico Fermi
Critical Raw Materials and MNE Strategies: Rethinking the Role of Natural Resources in International Business Abstract This paper aims to revisit the role of natural resources in the IB classical paradigm elaborated by John Dunning and followers, focusing in particular on critical raw materials (CRMs). CRMs – including rare metals and earth elements – are in fact essential inputs in the dual technological transition (digital and green), working as an irreplaceable material basis for related technological innovation. At the same time, global CRM supply chains are subject to significant geopolitical risks, affecting MNEs’ advantages and strategies. Using micro-data obtained by merging patent data and firm-level information through ORBIS IP, this study investigates the relevance of CRM in determining technological and internationalization trends and strategies of different groups of MNEs, assessing the current role of natural resources in IB theory.
By Andrea Ascani; Gran Sasso Science Institute    Simona Iammarino; Università di Cagliari    George Yunxiong Li; Fudan University
Presented by: Andrea Ascani, Gran Sasso Science Institute
Exposure to critical raw materials and innovation strategies in US Metropolitan Areas Abstract The global economy is undergoing an urgent transition towards both environmental sustainability and digitalization. Achieving competitiveness and sustainability requires strategic investments in green and digital technologies. However, this transition presents challenges, particularly in securing critical raw materials (CRMs) and rare metals (RMs) essential for these advancements. Despite their importance, risks such as mineral scarcity and geopolitical instability receive insufficient attention in research and innovation studies. This study aims to address this gap by examining how regional exposure to CRMs and RMs influences technological innovation strategies, particularly in US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Supply shocks in RM markets drive local agents to seek alternative material sources, impacting collaborative research structures and co-inventorship patterns. The study hypothesizes that these supply shocks influence the composition of inventor teams and regional collaboration strategies. By analyzing both technological and spatial changes in collaborative patterns, the research seeks to understand how regions adapt their innovation strategies in response to RM supply challenges.
By Fabrizio Fusillo; Università di Torino    Maria Manera; Università di Torino    Gianluca Orsatti; Università di Torino    Francesco Quatraro; Università di Torino    Alessandra Scandura; Università di Torino
Presented by: Francesco Quatraro, Università di Torino
Mapping CRM Patents using Large Language Models: preliminary evidence from US and Europe Abstract The interest in critical raw materials (CRM) has increased in the last few years due to the growing supply risk on the one hand and their relevance in the manufacturing of advanced technologies on the other hand. The economics of innovation literature has started focusing on this subject, using empirical approaches based on the exploitation contained in patent documents. In particular, extant studies have adopted methodological approaches using simple text analysis based on keyword searches. In this paper, we articulate a new methodological approach to the identification of CRM-related patents based on the exploitation of machine learning algorithms, specifically Large Language Models, and deep learning models. Our results stress the importance of digging into the specificity and heterogeneity of CRM-based patents, to analyze their impact on economic performances and innovation strategies of firms and regions.
By Maria Manera; Università di Torino
Presented by: Maria Manera, Università di Torino
Session 25: POVERTY October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Fernanda Mazzotta, Università di Salerno
Understanding the non-take up of the Italian Minimum Income Scheme Abstract In recent years Minimum Income Schemes gained attention as policy tools aimed at providing a safety net to those that fall in poverty. Yet, much literature shows that the take up of these measures is far from being complete, posing serious challenges for policy makers. However, most of the existing evidence focuses on welfare states with a relatively high GDP and low unemployment, such as Anglo-Saxon, Central European and Scandinavian welfare states. In this work we provide for the first time estimates of the take up of a Minimum Income Scheme in a Southern European welfare state, based on administrative data. We do this in Italy using administrative data from the Italian National Social Security Institute (INPS). We estimate an average take up of 61.3% in 2021. However, our estimates at the monthly and at the subnational level reveal relevant seasonal and geographical variations in take up. While the take up tends to be higher in Southern regions, our results show a steep decrease in take up from July 2021 onwards across all macro-areas. This might be linked to improved labour market conditions following the phasing out of the lockdown and social distancing measures. Finally, our multivariate analysis shows that household members labour market status and policy design elements, have a stable impact on eligibility over time, while their relationship with take up displays significant monthly variation within one year.
By Massimo Baldini; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Giovanni Gallo; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Arianna Gatta; The University of Queensland
Presented by: Giovanni Gallo, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Regional differences in risk factors of in work poverty in Italy Abstract Italy has always been characterized by large differences between geographical areas, with the South poorer, with fewer public services and poorer institutional quality than the Centre and the North. In the last decades, the increase in the poverty rates, especially in in-work poverty, has affected Southern regions the most, which now show a higher incidence and intensity of the phenomenon. Using data on Italian households from four pooled waves of the EU-SILC dataset for the years 2017-2020, we investigate the regional differences in the risk factors of in-work poverty. In particular, we focus on risk factors related to labour market conditions, i.e. household work intensity and the presence of part-time and low-wage workers among household members. Following the analytical framework Prevalences and Penalties (Brady et al., 2017), we investigate the territorial relevance and different impacts of these risk factors on the probability of in-work poverty in the different Italian macro-regions. We find that not only are all these risk factors more prevalent in Southern regions, but also that in the South they are all associated with a higher risk of poverty, and this is particularly true for the presence of low-paid workers in the household, even controlling for household work intensity. Our results demonstrate the need for policies that also take into account regional specificities.
By Claudia Colombarolli; Università di Torino    Silvia Pasqua; Università di Torino
Presented by: Silvia Pasqua, Università di Torino
Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian Citizenship Income on tackling poverty and inequalities: evidences from Italian municipalities Abstract This paper evaluates the influence of multidimensional phenomena on a guaranteed minimum income policy aimed at supporting the incomes of Italian families in difficulty, namely the Italian Citizenship Income, from 2018 to 2022. We implement a variety of spatial econometric models that relate the number of households benefiting from income support interventions with wealth and poverty indicators, including the average per capita income, share of poverty, and the Gini index. Spatial models handle the strong spatial heterogeneity exhibited by the recipient households by grouping municipal units into homogeneous and spatially-contiguous groups and estimating local relationships. In this way, we are enabled to evaluate how geographical and local factors influence the effectiveness of income support policies. Results show that the presence of multidimensional phenomena significantly influences the requests for income support. However, the sign and the magnitude of the estimated correlation strongly depend on the type of indicator used and by the local structural characteristics. Also, a remarkable augment in term of complexity of the social phenomenon and spatial heterogeneity throughout the period of interest. We estimate positive and statistically significant correlations regarding per capita income and the share of municipal poverty, in particular where both higher socio-economic vulnerability and low-income levels persist. Also, we observe that where both average per capita income and income inequality are high, the policy was unable to reach potential household targets, while in areas characterized by low income but lower income inequality, the income support reached a high number of households.
By Paolo Maranzano; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Gianluca Monturano; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Pasquale Tridico; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Gianluca Monturano, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
The Effect of Citizenship Income (RdC) on Poverty and In-Work Poverty in Italy Abstract Using the Bank of Italy Survey of 2020 this paper assessing the effect of the Reddito di Cittadinanza (Citizenship Income), on the poverty index. The aim of This paper is to contributes the large debate on transfers and the poverty reduction capabilities by assessing the impact of this reddito on both absolute and relative poverty as well as in-work poverty using descriptive statistics and probit regression analysis. Our results show that RdC significantly reduces the incidence of absolute and relative poverty. Whoever, the same cannot be said with regards to the effect of RdC on the probability of a household being either poor or in-work poor.
By Adama Touray; Università di Salerno    Lavinia Parisi; Università di Salerno    Fernanda Mazzotta; Università di Salerno
Presented by: Adama Touray, Università di Salerno
Session 26: DIGITAL ECONOMY October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Emanuela Marrocu, Università di Cagliari
Advanced Digital Technologies and Firm-Level Employment Outcomes Abstract This paper investigates the effects of ultra-fast broadband (UBB) availability on firms' employment levels and their workforce composition. We utilize a unique and comprehensive municipality-level data set on the deployment of UBB connections in Italy, which began in 2015. By using information on firms' locations, we match this municipality level data set with a rich administrative matched employer-employee balanced data set from 2012 to 2019. To address the endogeneity of UBB, we leverage the physical distance between each municipality and the nearest optical packet backbone node. Our instrumental variable regressions suggest a positive and significant effect of UBB on overall firm-level employment. When considering different categories of workers, by job contract type and the skill content of jobs, as well as the technological intensity of firms, we detect substantially differentiated UBB effects. We find complementarity effects of UBB with high-level jobs, particularly in the high-tech sector. Moreover, only for low-tech firms, we document a substitution effect of UBB with qualified blue-collar jobs.
By Laura Abrardi; Politecnico di Torino    Carlo Cambini; Politecnico di Torino    Elena Grinza; Università di Torino    Lorien Sabatino; Politecnico di Torino
Presented by: Elena Grinza, Università di Torino
Gender differences in the creator economy Abstract The digital revolution has given rise to the content creator economy, a growing market in which individuals use digital platforms to leverage their communication skills, personality, and creativity to attract audiences and create profitable careers. Unlike traditional labor markets, the creators market is global and largely barrier-free, allowing anyone with access to the Internet to participate. Existing research focuses primarily on the interaction between creators and advertisers, examining how creators monetize their influence through partnerships that improve brand visibility. However, these studies often overlook the fundamental steps of content creation and audience dynamics that precede advertising opportunities. Our research aims to fill this gap by exploring the behavioral traits of content creators, particularly through the lens of gender differences. We aspire to answer several research questions: whether gender differences exist in access to and success in the content creators market; whether there is gender segregation within the digital industry based on the thematic area of the creators’ channels; how behavioral traits influence success and whether their impact varies by gender; whether men and women use different strategies to achieve success and whether audience evaluates a given strategy differently depending on the gender of the creator. To answer these questions, we will use both observational data collected from YouTube and experimental data gathered from online surveys. We find that males were the pioneers of this market, with females increasing their presence only later. Males are also significantly more engaged with content creation than females. Finally, we find evidence of gender segregation also in the digital economy, where females tend to be more concentrated in thematic areas like body care, while males dominate thematic areas like technology. Our research aims to offer a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities of the content creators market, potentially informing policies to promote a more equitable digital workspace.
By Francesca Gioia; Università di Milano    Leo Morabito; Università di Milano
Presented by: Francesca Gioia, Università di Milano
Smart Strategies, Smarter Performance: the Impact of S3 and Industry 4.0 on Firms’ Outcomes Abstract This paper focuses on the impact of the Smart Specialisation Strategy (S3) and Industry 4.0 (I4) initiatives on firms’ performance in Italy during the 2014-2020 programming period. By analysing European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)-funded projects, we use OpenCoesione data and the staggered Difference-in-Differences approach to assess the effectiveness of S3 and I4 initiatives. Our results reveal that projects integrating I4 technologies within the S3 framework significantly enhance firms’ performance. This is particularly evident when compared to projects funded under other ERDF plans. The study highlights the importance of aligning S3 and I4 strategies with regional economic profiles and innovation capacities to maximise their impact. Our analysis underlines the role of these initiatives in stimulating innovation and economic growth. It carries profound implications for managers and firms, highlighting strategic and focused investment in S3 and I4 as a pathway to enhanced regional innovation and development effectiveness.
By Emanuela Marrocu; Università di Cagliari    Raffaele Paci; Unversità di Cagliari    Luca Serafini; Università di Cagliari
Presented by: Emanuela Marrocu, Università di Cagliari
Session 27: EFFECTS OF PANDEMIC CRISIS October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Gianluigi Conzo, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
The impact of the severity of restrictions during COVID-19 on household consumption in Russian regions (The conference article was prepared within the framework of the project “Mirror Laboratories” HSE University) Abstract This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household consumption patterns in Russia. We use household budget survey data, modelling the impact of household socioeconomic characteristics on consumption patterns. Additionally, we account for the regional heterogeneity of the severity of the quarantine measures. The results indicate a quantitative change in household consumption structure, but consumers’ behaviour patterns remain unchanged.
By Olga Demidova; HSE University, Russia    Valentin Voytenkov; HSE University, Russia
Presented by: Olga Demidova, HSE University, Russia
Technology access for poor households after pandemic Abstract The growing importance of technology diffusion and digitalization processes in the global economy has accelerated further in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, this diffusion varies according to socioeconomic context and different types of technology. This study analyzes the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the digitalization process of poor households, focusing on Internet access and computer ownership. To this end, we implement a Probit model with a difference-in-differences approach using EU-SILC data for six European countries. The analysis considers several socioeconomic factors and household characteristics, also examining heterogeneity across countries and equivalised income deciles. We find a significant positive association between lack of digitalization and poverty. Covid-19 is confirmed as a driver of digitalization. Its effect on the economically struggling population depends on the technology considered: it is accentuated for Internet connection, while it is almost zero for computer ownership.
By Claudia Zola; Università di Milano    Giovanni Gallo; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Presented by: Claudia Zola, Università di Milano
GVC and credit risk in times of pandemic crisis: survey data evidence at the firm-level Abstract In this research, we sought to understand the relationship between a firm’s involvement in global value chains (GVCs) and its financial performance, in terms of delayed and overdue payments and risk of insolvency. To do this, we use survey data from the World Bank, combining information about a firm’s financial performance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic with its previous involvement in GVC. Our sample includes 10,529 firms from 30 countries, which were followed-up in 2020 and 2021. We use a probit model to estimate the impact of GVC participation, while controlling for other firm characteristics, on the probability of experiencing payment delay and overdue and risk of insolvency. To account for potential endogeneity, we use a recursive bivariate probit model, which allows us to examine both the direct and indirect effects of GVC participation. Our results show that the most internationally-oriented firms were less likely to experience credit repayment difficulties and risk of insolvency. Specifically, we found that GVC participation reduces the probability of delayed and overdue payments by 8% and 3%, respectively, and reduce the probability of insolvency by 2%. These findings suggest that internationalization can help firms to mitigate risks related to the crisis period.
By Chiara Franco; Università di Pisa    Filomena Pietrovito; Università del Molise
Presented by: Filomena Pietrovito, Università del Molise
The (unintended) consequences of shifting media attention: Contagion in times of war Abstract This paper offers causal evidence on the (unintended) consequences of a sudden shift in media attention, focusing on health behaviors amid the Russo-Ukrainian war. We leverage an exogenous media coverage shift coinciding with the onset of the conflict, which unexpectedly displaced the salience of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through a differences-in-differences event study, we assess the effect of this attention shift on contagion across Italian municipalities, using their proximity to US military bases as a treatment variable. Results document a temporary, differential increase in COVID-19 cases, particularly in municipalities closer to military buildings, where the escalation of war-related salience was more likely. Similar results are obtained using the local share of Ukrainians and Russians as an alternative treatment. Treatment effects are primarily attributed to individuals under the age of 40 and to municipalities with better broadband access, underscoring the significant role of social media in shaping public perception. For the mechanisms, Google mobility and search data show a pronounced rise in mobility patterns and searches related to the fear of war within the treatment group. This suggests that the anticipation of a new global conflict, coupled with decreased attention to the disease, may be driving the observed increase in contagion.
By Gianluigi Conzo; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Pierluigi Conzo; Università di Torino e Collegio Carlo Alberto
Presented by: Gianluigi Conzo, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Session 28: REGIONAL INNOVATION October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Anna Maria Ferragina, Università di Salerno
Technological diversification and the growth of regions in the short and long run Abstract We study the effects of different types of technological diversification on the performance of regional economies. We focus on the relatedness and unconventionality of technological capabilities as drivers of GDP and employment growth. Using economic indicators from Eurostat regional statistics and patent records from the European Patent Office (EPO) PATSTAT and the OECD RegPat databases, we estimate Panel Vector Autoregression models and generate Impulse Response Functions to assess to what extent and with what persistence relatedness and unconventionality affect growth. Our findings, which have implications for place-based innovation policies, reveal that technological relatedness has short-term effects on employment growth and negative effects on GDP growth, whereas technological unconventionality has a long-lasting positive impact on GDP growth and no effect on employment growth.
By Silvia Rocchetta; Dublin City University    Martina Iori; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Andrea Mina; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Robert Gillanders; Dublin City University Business School
Presented by: Martina Iori, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Combining digital and green technologies: how to close the gap between regions and the frontier? Abstract This paper investigates the temporal gap with which regions combine digital and green technologies with respect to the frontier. Drawing on the recombination theory of innovation at the regional level, we expect that closing the gap at stake depends on the cognitive characteristics of the regions’ knowledge base, the characteristics of the green and digital technologies that are combined, and the size and diversity of their inventor teams. Using patent data, we put forward an original measurement of the regional twin speed, meant as the average speed with which regions introduce inventions combining digital and green technologies with respect to the time they were first combined at the world frontier. Considering the European knowledge space as the locus of this world frontier, we find that the regional twin speed increases with some of the considered features and decreases with other ones. We also find that regions with an average higher twin speed obtain digital-green technologies with a lower impact on the development of subsequent inventions, especially when they draw on more novel prior art knowledge.
By Stefano Basilico; Gran Sasso Science Institute    Alberto Marzucchi; Gran Sasso Science Institute    Sandro Montresor; Università di Trento
Presented by: Sandro Montresor, Università di Trento
The role of employment, productivity and trade in the evolution of European regional disparities Abstract Using long-run data at Nuts2 level, and decomposable disparity indicators such as the Theil index, this paper tracks the patterns of regional disparities in Europe in the last few decades in order to detect which issues are more important. This is done by looking at two aspects, a sectoral one and a spatial one. In terms of sectors, it shows the much higher relevance of productivity disparities with respect to employment ones, and the importance of two open macro-sectors, manufacturing and private services. In spatial terms, departing to a traditional conception of space as physical proximity, the role of the regional insertion of trade networks is investigated. This is shown to be relevant and increasing with time. All this calls for policies targeting productivity in lagging regions, and their insertion in trade networks of open sectors.
By Danilo Carullo; Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze    Paolo Di Caro; Università di Catania    Ugo Fratesi; Politecnico di Milano
Presented by: Ugo Fratesi, Politecnico di Milano
Green Trade and Innovation: A Province-Level Analysis Abstract We study the green specialisation of Italian NUTS3 regions using 3-digit ATECO 2007 data on imports and exports and environmental patent data for the period 2008-2020. We propose a new list of environmentally traded goods classified according to a green index constructed using Air Emission Accounts (AEA). By applying a PCA, an assessment of the environmental footprint of different economic activities based on three different categories of pollutants (greenhouse gas emissions, acidifying substances and ground-level ozone precursors) is provided and environmental trade is classified into three categories: green, medium and dirty trade. Indicators of green innovation performance are derived from the European Patent Office (EPO) using data on patent inventors and applying the OECD's ENV-TECH classification of environmental technologies based on IPC classes. The two indicators on trade and innovation allow us to show the evolution of environmental specialisation in green trade and environmental patents across Italian provinces and across macro-regions, the convergence or persistence of green innovation and trade specialisation across provinces, and to provide a picture of the geographical diversification of green capabilities in Italy. Export and import dynamics emerge as an important factor related to a country's environmental innovation capacity when considering trade with partner countries that excel in environmental patents. The research highlights innovation shifts in green patents due to fluctuations in global trade in environmental goods, highlighting the fundamental link between international environmental trade, knowledge exchange and the promotion of green innovation.
By Loreta Calzaretta; Università di Salerno    Anna Maria Ferragina; Università di Salerno    Stefano Iandolo; Università di Salerno    Giulia Nunziante; Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Presented by: Anna Maria Ferragina, Università di Salerno
Session 29: INCOME INEQUALITY October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Giorgio Di Maio, Università dell'Insubria
Inequality and conspiracy beliefs Abstract Around one third of Europeans are conspiracy believers. Using European Social Survey data, we find that income inequality is an important driver of political, scientific and COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs, with regional inequality being positively and significantly correlated with conspiracy beliefs at individual level. Believers argue significantly more that the local government should address income inequality problems, while it is not doing enough for them. Furthermore, average sample moods about government commitment on inequality at regional level are significantly and positively correlated with conspiracy beliefs, even after controlling for individual opinions. Instrumental variable approaches suggest that the observed correlation hides a causality link. Our findings identify a novel underinvestigated effect of income inequality and suggest another positive effect of policies aimed at reducing it.
By Leonardo Becchetti; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Davide Bellucci; Università di Torino    Fabio Pisani; Universitas Mercatorum
Presented by: Fabio Pisani, Universitas Mercatorum
Income inequality and credit cycles: booster or anchor? Abstract Recent literature has investigated the possible existence of a direct, causal relationship between the observed rising inequalities in advanced economies, the excess leverage, and financial crises (Bazillier and Hericourt, 2017). Despite the increase in contributions analysing the mechanisms through which inequality might impact credit and business cycle fluctuations, consensus is still far from being achieved. Indeed, existing empirical studies focusing on the link between inequality and leverage are still scarce, focused mainly on the 2008 financial crisis period and provide mixed results. Additionally, relevant empirical issues, such as endogeneity, the choice of the variables to include in the analysis and reverse causality, have not been fully addressed until now, thus plaguing the results of several studies. Therefore, there is the need to empirically reassess the relationship between inequality and leverage and measure the relative weight of each different potential channel. This study aims at addressing this issues answering the following research questions: i) which is the impact that the evolution of income inequality has on households’ leverage in the Euro Area countries? Does credit to households react differently depending nature of the income inequality change? Using a Mixed Frequency FAVAR model on yearly and quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2022Q3 for the main 11 Euro Area countries in terms of GDP we investigate the relationship between income inequality and credit to households taking into account the empirical issues related to this kind of studies. Results prove that according to the different source and nature of the income inequality variation the effects on the credit market, represented by the change in the credit to households display some remarkable differences. Indeed, when income inequality increases due to an increase in the population belonging to the top decile of the income distribution we observe an increase in the household credit volumes, while an increase in income inequality driven by an opposite shift of the income distribution, i.e. an increase in the bottom decile, leads to a reduction of the household credit volumes. For what concerns the opposite case, that is to say an income inequality shrinkage, a reduction in the first decile of the income distribution leaves the household credit volumes unchanged, while a reduction in the income of the lowest decile of the distribution makes the households credit volumes increase. Theory wise, this findings put further into question the conventional view that wants income distribution to be irrelevant to macroeconomic and financial stability while policy wise they shed light on the importance of setting up different reaction strategies to income distribution modifications according to its nature.
By Alessandra Centinaio; LIUC Università Cattaneo    Fausto Pacicco; LIUC Università Cattaneo    Massimilano Serati; LIUC Università Cattaneo    Andrea Venegoni; LIUC Università Cattaneo
Presented by: Andrea Venegoni, LIUC Università Cattaneo
Structural and Institutional Drivers of Income Inequalities in India: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis at Sub-National Level Abstract Income inequalities are found to be rising in India since 1990s in line with the global trends. The degree of income inequalities is uneven across sub-national states in India, some states are found to be more unequal while others are less. What drive the rising income inequalities in India and what explain the sub-national variations in the degree of income inequalities are empirical research questions. This study attempts to identify various structural and institutional drivers of income inequalities (measured in terms of Gini coefficient of monthly per capita household consumption expenditure estimated from various rounds of National Sample Survey) at sub-national level in India during the post-reform period using a dynamic panel data model. The study finds the structural transformation, the occupational structure characterised by informality of employment and skewed property structure as the larger structural sources of income inequalities while the poor quality of governance, lower degrees of state action in social sector and the institution of caste as the major institutional sources of income inequalities in India. The study also checks other potential sources of rising income inequalities. The study invalidates the Kuznets hypothesis in Indian context and enlarges the empirical macroeconomic understanding on rising income inequalities in India.
By Aboobacker Thachaparamban; Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Bengaluru
Presented by: Aboobacker Thachaparamban, Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Bengaluru
Income inequality in the Euro Area: An axiomatic within-between decomposition by subgroups of the Gini, Bonferroni, and De Vergottini concentration indices Abstract This study contributes to the literature on the inequality decomposition by population subgroups in five ways. First, we propose a new axiomatization of the decomposition by subgroups of the population inequality that is the first in the literature and is applicable to any inequality index. Second, we propose a new two-term decomposition by subgroups of the Gini, Bonferroni, and De Vergottini indices that is exact, i.e., the sum of the within and between components is equal to the overall inequality, and independent of the order in which the subgroups are sorted, i.e., the decomposition gives the same results whatever the ordering of the subgroups. In addition, the trend of the between component over time can be used to study the convergence or divergence between the income distributions of subgroups, with an increase in the between component indicating a divergence. Third, using the elements of the proposed decomposition method, we provide a new graphical representation of population and subgroups income distributions. Fourth, through a comparison with the most important among the other methods proposed in the literature, we show that the proposed decomposition procedure is the only one satisfying all the proposed axioms. Finally, we provide an empirical application of the proposed methodology by studying income inequality in the Euro area between 2007 and 2019, i.e., between the financial crisis and the epidemic crisis. Results show that inequality of households equivalized disposable incomes in the Euro area increased between 2011 and 2016, then remaining higher than in 2007. The between component increased and the within component decreased from 2011 onward, reversing the previous trend. We interpret these results as indicating the divergence of the Euro area countries income distributions after the financial crisis.
By Giorgio Di Maio; Università dell'Insubria
Presented by: Giorgio Di Maio, Università dell'Insubria
Session 30: WOMEN POLITICAL PROCESS October 24, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Anna Laura Baraldi, Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Well-being and female mayors Abstract This study assesses whether female mayors make a difference in terms of the well-being provided to citizens. Well-being is measured as a composite index of several indicators addressing social and environmental components of progress and sustainable development. Using a sharp regression discontinuity design on a sample of 761 Italian municipalities in year 2014, we find that female mayor enhances citizens’ well-being.
By Barbara Ermini; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Raffaella Santolini; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Mariateresa Ciommi; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Barbara Ermini, Università Politecnica delle Marche
The power of representation: investigating the impact of women leaders on youngsters’ political trust in Italy Abstract In this paper, we explore gender disparities in the political sphere, particularly focusing on the underrepresentation of women. Despite some progress, with only 22% of the global gender gap in politics bridged according to the Global Gender Gap Index, significant disparities persist. In Europe, women constitute 39.4% of European Parliament members and 32.9% of government cabinet members. However, in Italy, the percentage of women in the Italian Parliament has decreased to around 33.6%. Numerous studies have investigated the reasons behind this underrepresentation, citing factors such as lower political ambition among women, perceptions of capability and qualifications, attitudes towards competition, and socialization. Exposure to same-gender role models has been shown to positively influence political engagement and ambition. However, the relationship between role models and political trust among young people, especially in Italy, remains understudied. This study aims to address this gap by examining the impact of female political leaders on political trust among Italian youth. Using a quasi-experimental methodology (RDD), we explore the dynamics of political trust formation and potential moderating factors. Our findings suggest that female representation positively influences political trust and engagement among the younger generation. These findings underscore the importance of promoting gender equality in politics to cultivate a more inclusive and representative political landscape, ultimately contributing to more robust democratic institutions and a more equitable society.
By Chiara Baggetta; Università di Genova    Anna Bottasso; Università di Genova    Gianluca Cerruti; Università di Genova    Maurizio Conti; Università di Genova
Presented by: Chiara Baggetta, Università di Genova
Clearing the Air: Women Leaders and Air Pollution Abstract This research analyses the issue of the causal relationship between women politicians and air pollution. Differing attitudes towards environmental issues between men and women may affect policies and actions at the municipal level, so an increase in women’s political representation can be expected to reduce the air pollution. We test for this in Italy, exploiting a gender quota measure (Law 215/2012) as an exogenous shock to the percentage of female municipal councilors. Difference-in-differences IV analysis finds that an increase in the percentage of female councilors decreases the maximum number of days in which at least one type of monitoring stations (among all the sta- tions installed in the provincial capital municipality) have detected an excess of PM10 (particles suspended in outdoor air with an aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 10 μmicrometers) with respect to the daily limit of 50μg/m³ (micro-grams per cubic meter). This research provides evidence of the most likely mechanism driving the results by proving that an increase in female officeholders has a positive impact on a number of environmental friendly policies and measures (as the bicycle lanes, the urban green, the bike- and car-sharing services and the district heating) aimed at reducing the harmful air particles
By Anna Laura Baraldi; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli    Giovanni Fosco; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Presented by: Anna Laura Baraldi, Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Session 31: THE ITALIAN ECONOMY IN THE 2020s/L'ECONOMIA ITALIANA NEGLI ANNI VENTI October 24, 2024 18:30 to 19:30 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Annalisa Rosselli, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei
I divari territoriali in Italia Abstract I divari territoriali in Italia
By Gianfranco Viesti; Università di Bari
Presented by: Gianfranco Viesti, Università di Bari
L’industria italiana contemporanea Abstract L’industria italiana contemporanea
By Donato Iacobucci; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Donato Iacobucci, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Lavoro e salari in Italia Abstract Lavoro e salari in Italia
By Rinaldo Evangelista; Università di Camerino    Lia Pacelli; Università di Torino
Presented by: Rinaldo Evangelista, Università di Camerino
Lia Pacelli, Università di Torino
Session 32: THE EMPIRICS OF GEOREFERENCED DATA October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Angela Parenti, Università di Pisa
The geography of organizational misconduct Abstract Case based analyses about site-specific injustices caused by corporate misbehaviour have recently attracted the interest of scholars in the fields of political ecology, sociology of work and business and human rights. In contrast, economic geographers have remained relatively silent on these issues, while embracing the more optimistic conception of firms as engines of innovation and growth. In this article we address this gap in the literature and propose a novel research agenda on the geography of organisational misconduct. We first show the geography of organisational misconduct by considering the US as a context. Using evidence of an original database covering the universe of plant-level infrigements of federal, state and local norms over the period 2000-2020 we identify the spatial distribution of organisational misconduct, their dynamics over time and space and specific geographical pattern for type of organisational misconduct (on place of works, on complain on environmental laws; etc.). Our database includes 396,238 geo-referenced infringements, among which 358,955 at city/county level, while 37,283 only at US state level. Second, we provide descriptive statistics about the socio-economic characteristics of the places where violations happen. Third, we use this evidence to define a research agenda.
By Davide Fiaschi; Università di Pisa    Elisa Giuliani; Università di Pisa    Angela Parenti; Università di Pisa
Presented by: Davide Fiaschi, Università di Pisa
The evolution of economic activities over space and time. The use of nightlights Abstract In this paper we show that, while there exists a strong cross-sectional correlation between nightlights and personal income and population, the dynamics of personal income and population can only partially proxied by nightlights at municipal level in Italy in the period 2012-2019 due to the presence of a downward trend in the intensity of nightlights, whose slope is positively correlated with the intensity of nightlights in 2012. We also discuss how the aggregation at NUTS 3 and 2 level can (falsely) increase the capacity of nightlights to proxy for the local dynamics of personal income and population. Our findings point to a possible miss-use of nightlights for the study of local development, at least for developed countries.
By Davide Fiaschi; Università di Pisa    Angela Parenti; Università di Pisa    Cristiano Ricci; Università di Pisa
Presented by: Cristiano Ricci, Università di Pisa
Spurious significance in spatial panel regressions Abstract We address the bias in estimated standard errors arising from variables sharing a common spatial structure. We fit independently-generated, stationary but spatially correlated variables ("spatial noise") in a panel data regression, showing false positive rates of up to 50% in standard significance diagnostics.This is a well-known result in spatial econometrics since Bivand (1980, A Monte Carlo study of correlation coefficient estimation with spatially autocorrelated observations, Quaestiones Geographicae). Smith and Lee (2012) present a recent Monte Carlo analysis assessing the magnitude of the bias. Spatial econometric models, in particular the spatial error model (SEM), solve the problem by modelling the spatial dependence. The "true" spatial data generating process, nevertheless, is rarely known. Panel data allow for a number of techniques to alleviate the issue without assuming a known pattern for the spatial dependence. We assess how far these tools can go in controlling the empirical size of the significance test. We evaluate the empirical performance of various solutions to the problem, including estimating spatial econometric models with a misspecified spatial weights matrix (as will be employed in most cases). As a motivating example, we present "statistically significant" evidence of some spurious relationships.
By Giovanni Millo; Università di Trieste
Presented by: Giovanni Millo, Università di Trieste
Innovation and environmental well-being: Exploring the nexus between industrial development and soil contamination across European regions Abstract This study investigates the relationship between industrial development, soil contamination, and the innovation of cleaning technologies across European NUTS3 regions by focusing on heavy metal pollution. By leveraging a novel dataset composed of soil contamination data retrieved by the JRC LUCAS TOPSOIL database and patent documents from the CAS SciFinder$^{n}$ database, this study proposes a novel methodological approach to analyze how regional industrial activities influence the development of technologies aimed at mitigating environmental damage. Our findings reveal significant variations in the innovation responses to heavy metal contamination. Non-deindustrialized regions, characterized by ongoing industrial activities, report a strong correlation between heavy metal contamination and the emergence of cleaning technologies, suggesting a proactive approach to addressing environmental challenges. Conversely, deindustrialized regions show a lower level of technological innovation, indicating potential challenges related to lack and loss of technological capabilities and technical skills or absence of policy support.
By Gianluca Biggi; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Martina Iori; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Gianluca Biggi, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Session 33: THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: ROBOTIZATION AND AI October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Andrea Gentili, Università eCampus
Robotization and Workers’ Career Patterns: Empirical evidence from Italy Abstract Several studies (Acemoglu et al., 2023, for the Netherlands; Dauth et al., 2021, for Germany; Dottori, 2021, for Italy) have started to exploit longitudinal administrative data on workers’ careers, matched with data on the ‘robotization intensity’ of the industry where they work, to investigate the effects of an increase in the robot adoption on workers’ employment and earnings. Building upon this strand of the literature, we focus on the case of Italy with the aim of conducting a comprehensive investigation into the potential impacts of robotization on various aspects of individuals’ working histories, going beyond employment and earnings. To achieve this objective, we use the AD-SILC longitudinal dataset, which is a very rich sample of Italian workers’ career trajectories. This dataset is developed by merging the IT-SILC cross-sectional samples spanning from 2004 to 2017 (i.e., representing the Italian counterpart of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions – EU-SILC) with the administrative longitudinal records provided by the Italian National Social Security Institute (INPS). In detail, the cross-sectional variables collected in IT-SILC – which also includes information on the worker’s education that is not recorded in administrative archives – have been enriched with the longitudinal social security records of IT-SILC respondents, covering their work histories from their entry into the labor market through 2018
By Francesco Bloise; Sapienza Università di Roma    Dario Guarascio; Sapienza Università di Roma    Michele Raitano; Sapienza Università di Roma    Jelena Reljic; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Jelena Reljic, Sapienza Università di Roma
Robotization, employment and income: the role of firms’ size in the Euro area Abstract This work correlates the impact of robotization on employment and households’ income at the regional scale in the EURO area with the distribution of firms’ size at industry level. In micro literature larger firms seems to be more exposed to labour saving effect while automating; on the contrary smaller firms seems to expand their demand for labour while automating. To this end we compute the Adjusted Penetration of Robots at the sectoral level combining the International Federation of Robotics database for the stock of robots, EUROSTAT Regional database, and the STructural ANalysis database on 150 NUTS-2 regions of the Euro area. We then perform a spatial stacked panel analysis on several firms’ dimension measurements.
By Fabiano Compagnucci; Gran Sasso Science Institute    Mauro Gallegati; Universita Politecnica delle Marche    Andrea Gentili; Università eCampus    Enzo Valentini; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Andrea Gentili, Università eCampus
The quality of patenting activity in AI and robotics. Cross-country comparisons using time series techniques Abstract The last two decades have been characterized by major advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics in the wake of the so-called “Fourth Industrial Revolution” (4IR). These advances brought about renewed concerns among both academics and policy makers with reference to their impacts on, for example, performance processes, inequality, occupational structure, the nature of labour, the demand for skills, competitiveness of the economic actors (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2011; 2014; Arntz et al., 2016; Frey and Osborne, 2017; OECD, 2019; Benassi, Grinza and Rentocchini, 2020; Leoncini, Guidetti and Cattani, 2021). Frey and Osborne (2013) calculated that 47% of US jobs are at risk of automation, while according to the World Bank (2016) the same share accounts up to 57% in the OECD countries. OECD (2019) estimates that 14% of existing jobs could disappear because of automation in the next 15-20 years, but another 32% are likely to be radically transformed as individual tasks are automated. On the other hand, automation and new technologies are creating new types of jobs, where new tasks and activities can productively combine labour with technologies (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2019; World Economic Forum, 2018; International Federation of Robotics, 2019). However, the boundaries between AI and other innovations are frequently blurred and constantly evolving. In addition, definitions have changed over time and are in some cases contentious (see e.g. ISO 8373; OECD, 2019, 2020; European Commission, 2018; HLEG, 2019; WIPO, 2019; Samoili et al., 2020).
By Giovanni Guidetti; Università di Bologna    Riccardo Leoncini; Università di Bologna    Mariele Macaluso; Università di Torino
Presented by: Riccardo Leoncini, Università di Bologna
Session 34: GENDER AND CLASS STRATIFICATION: EVIDENCE FROM HISTORICAL AND CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Maria Enrica Virgillito, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Early evidence of paid work in social reproduction: wetnurses and wages in Italy from the 1800 to the twenty century Abstract Carework, paid or unpaid, is the centre of our economy. However, mainstream economics has culpably ignored these dimensions. One of the consequences of this theoretical neglect is that certain types of productive activity are devalued, even when paid. This work contributes at filling this gap on carework in historical perspective by providing the first series of wages of a paid care job, namely of wetnurses employed by foundling institution, from the 18th to the 20th century. The demand for wetnurses was very high: infant abandonment was a staggering phenomenon in the past and the survival of abandoned children was closely linked to the provision of maternal breastmilk. In the present work, we focus on wetnurses employed by two main Italian foundling hospitals: Florence and Rome. To do so, we collect new archival evidence from foundling homes’ archives: wage books, foundlings’ registers, reports of the governing boards, reporting decisions concerning wage increases. We construct a long-run series of nominal and real wages for wetnurses. Compared to the wages of unskilled male workers for instance in construction, wetnurses’ wages were low. However, they played a crucial role in family incomes, shedding light on early evidence of women subordination in the labour market.
By Giuliana Freschi; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Giuliana Freschi, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Class and Gender Dynamics: Unraveling Income Inequality in the Eurozone Abstract One or two centuries before the advent of the ‘representative agent,’ economists were deeply concerned with the study of social classes.. However, as soon as the marginalist method became the rule, social classes became the object of interest for historians, anthropologists, and sociologists. Following the tradition of British Classical economists, this work aims to reopen the debate among economists on the expediency of some form of class and gender analysis, of which we try to develop an example and tentative empirical application concerning the recent trends in inequality in the Eurozone. More in detail, by focusing on monetary income distribution and redistribution, and excluding non-monetary welfare components, in this study we categorize social classes on the source of monetary income. . Through the analysis of cross-sectional data from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions, our findings reveal that overlooking intra-household income redistribution results in an underestimation of overall income inequality in the Eurozone. Moreover, we observe that different assumptions about sharing rules lead to slightly different estimations of income inequality among men and women in the Eurozone.
By Valeria Cirillo; Università di Bari    Marcella Corsi; Sapienza Università di Roma    Carlo D'Ippoliti; Sapienza Università di Roma    Chiara Sciascia; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Valeria Cirillo, Università di Bari
Carlo D'Ippoliti, Sapienza Università di Roma
A gender perspective on electoral participation: evidence from the “RDC” scheme Abstract Italian political and administrative elections are characterized by increasing rate of abstentionism, resulting in a violent weakening of the democratic process. Non-voting and abstentionism have been traced back to multiple causes, namely, disaffection, dismantling of mass parties, decaying participation in democratic processes and different forms of opposition. These causes are often linked to the ideological and political factors that emphasize the failure of political parties to mobilize voters. Non-voting is also interpreted as an expression of individual alienation, or rather the emergence of a strong criticism against the political system in place. Few economic studies, however, challenge the material and economic dimensions behind voter participation decline. In this research, we look at potential linkages between specific policy measured aimed at reducing poverty rate and social exclusion and political participation at national elections, looking in particular at the case of female voters’ behavior during last national elections in Italy. Indeed, the provision of a guaranteed income scheme (“Rdc”) has been essentially investigated with respect to its impact in terms of unemployment rate and inequality, while its potential impact on political participation has been largely neglected, leaving room for explorative analyses.
By Armanda Cetrulo; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Armanda Cetrulo, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Session 35: VISITINPS 1 October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Maria De Paola, Università della Calabria e INPS
The impact of the EU-ETS on the career patterns of workers: Evidence from Italian manufacturing firms Abstract The impact of the EU-ETS on the career patterns of workers: Evidence from Italian manufacturing firms
By Francesca Maria De Matteis; Sapienza Università di Roma    Giovanni Marin; Università di Urbino    Michele Raitano; Sapienza Università di Roma    Francesco Vona; Università di Milano
Presented by: Giovanni Marin, Università di Urbino
Gender Culture and Parental Leave: Evidence from Municipal-Level Facebook Data Abstract Gender Culture and Parental Leave: Evidence from Municipal-Level Facebook Data
By Luisa Carrer; Università Bocconi    Lorenzo De Masi; Università Bocconi
Presented by: Lorenzo De Masi, Università Bocconi
Impact of child disability on mothers' and fathers' employment in Italy Abstract Impact of child disability on mothers' and fathers' employment in Italy
By Chiara Serra; Università Bocconi    Nicoletta Balbo; Università Bocconi    Tito Boeri; Università Bocconi    Edoardo Di Porto; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Chiara Serra, Università Bocconi
Pension rules and wage schedules within the firm Abstract Pension rules and wage schedules within the firm
By Giuseppe Pio Dachille; INPS Research Department    Giacomo De Giorgi; University of Geneva    Michele Pellizzari; University of Geneva    Luigi Pistaferri; Stanford University
Presented by: Giuseppe Pio Dachille, INPS Research Department
Session 36: UNDER THE GRIP OF ORGANIZED CRIME: MAINTAINING FIRM PERFORMANCE IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Carlo Migliardo, Università di Messina
From News to Knowledge: Decoding Organized Crime’s Footprint in Italy Through Text Mining Abstract This research employs a novel methodology—text mining—to identify the proliferation of organized crime (OC) within municipalities in Italy. We examine municipal-level mafia-style crimes through an analysis of news coverage compiled by the National Associated Press Agency (ANSA) from 2012 to 2022. By employing Named Entity Recognition models, it becomes feasible to generate more intricate maps depicting the distribution of OCs in comparison to the utilization of publicly accessible provincial crime data. Likewise, the empirical approach permits the detection of crimes that have been ascribed a minimum of 25% of the significance by the press agency in a mafia-like fashion to OC. Consequently, the gathered data is indisputably linked to mafia operations and remains unaffected by minor criminal activities or non-mafia criminal organization endeavors. The correlation between the findings and crimes reported by the Ministry of Interior at the provincial level (up to 90%) demonstrates that text mining accurately represents the actual OC landscape. Moreover, upon comparing the municipal-level data with the Mafia Composite Index developed by Dugato et al. (2019), a comparable pattern of OC distribution becomes apparent.
By Antonio Forgione; Università di Messina    Carlo Migliardo; Università di Messina    Paolo Mustica; Università di Messina
Presented by: Paolo Mustica, Università di Messina
Between Fear and Finance: How Organized Crime Perceptions Influence Credit Rationing Abstract This study investigates the influence of organized crime on the restriction of credit in Italy. It utilizes a distinctive dataset obtained from a survey carried out by the Bank of Italy, which includes approximately 3000 companies in the industrial and service sectors. The study examines the extent to which the perception of organized crime affects banks' choices to limit credit availability. The results indicate that companies located in regions with a higher perception of organized crime encounter substantial difficulties in obtaining loans, suggesting a clear correlation between the presence of organized crime and heightened credit restrictions. This relationship remains strong and consistent across different specifications of credit rationing and models of firm performance. The analysis also examines the wider economic ramifications of these dynamics, highlighting that organized crime not only hampers firms' credit accessibility but also incurs broader societal expenses, impeding economic growth and development. It is recommended that policymakers take into account the complex relationships between organized crime and financial accessibility, as addressing these effects can result in enhanced firm performance and overall economic welfare. This contribution is crucial for comprehending the diverse impacts of organized crime on the economy and emphasizes the significance of tackling these challenges to promote development.
By Antonio Forgione; Università di Messina    Carlo Migliardo; Università di Messina    Marco Spadaro; Università di Messina
Presented by: Marco Spadaro, Università di Messina
Breaking the Mafia’s Grip: How Judicial Actions Reshape Business Ecosystems Abstract This study examines the relationship between the removal of mafia-affiliated businesses by the judiciary and how this affects the profitability and efficiency of legitimate companies in the same industry and region in Italy. This study suggests a U-shaped relationship between these factors in the short and medium terms. The preliminary results indicate that legal firms initially face a decline in technical efficiency and Return on Assets (ROA) after being under the control of mafia firms. However, this negative trend is reversed after three years, suggesting that removing criminal influence fosters a robust and competitive business environment. This study establishes a cause-and-effect connection to emphasize the diverse impacts of these interventions over time and under different market conditions, thus showcasing the ability of legal firms to withstand challenges and adjust accordingly. The findings provide valuable information for policymakers and contribute to academic discussion on the economic impact of organized crime. They emphasize the importance of consistent legal actions in dismantling criminal organizations, which in turn promotes a fair and efficient market. This benefits law-abiding companies and the economy overall.
By Carlo Migliardo; Università di Messina    Domenico Nicolò; Università Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria    Marcella Scrimitore; Università Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria
Presented by: Carlo Migliardo, Università di Messina
Exploring the impact of the Legality Rating on corporate efficiency: empirical evidence from Italy Abstract This study looks at the impact of Italy's Legality Rating (LR) on corporate efficiency. The LR, established by Law No. 27 of March 24, 2012, aims to instill ethical principles in corporate behavior and strategies by providing a structured framework for evaluating and communicating companies' compliance with legal and regulatory requirements. According to the study, LR not only improves corporate image and reduces reputational risks, but it also provides tangible benefits to firm performance through the reward system, such as better terms with banks and advantages in public tenders. The study uses stochastic frontier analysis and the difference-in-difference method to assess the LR's impact on firm efficiency, with a dataset of 12,037 firms cross-referenced from the AGCM and AIDA- Bureau Van Dijk databases and spanning the years 2013-2022. The findings indicate that LR adoption generally improves corporate efficiency, particularly in southern Italy, where it acts as a risk mitigation mechanism against organized crime. The study emphasizes LR's role in reducing information asymmetry, increasing stakeholder trust, and ultimately contributing to a company's efficiency and competitive advantage. This comprehensive analysis emphasizes LR's potential as a significant factor in increasing corporate efficiency and aligning business practices with CSR and ethical guidelines.
By Giulia Cattafi; Università di Messina    Antonio Del Pozzo; Università di Messina    Antonio Forgione; Università di Messina    Carlo Migliardo; Università di Messina
Presented by: Antonio Forgione, Università di Messina
Session 37: INDUSTRY DYNAMICS IN ITALY: PAST AND CURRENT TRENDS (with SIEPI - Società Italiana di Economia e Politica Industriale) October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chairs:
Francesca Spigarelli, Università di Macerata
Donato Iacobucci, Università Politecnica delle Marche
How Regional is the Manufacturing Value Chain of the Main European Countries? Abstract We provide new empirical evidence on the weak deindustrialization and nearshoring of economic activities for four major European economies – Germany, Spain, France and Italy – over the period 2010 – 2020. We find evidence of a direct decline in the employment and valueadded share of manufacturing in all four economies. However, using the subsystem approach – vertically integrated activities – only employment shares declined. The total amount of activity generated domestically increased slightly, suggesting reshoring over the last decade. Moreover, the manufacturing value chains of the main European countries are becoming more regional, as the amount of activity generated within European borders has increased. Our results also suggest that the relative share of services offshoring appears to be higher than that of manufacturing.
By Claudio Di Berardino; Università di Chieti-Pescara    Stefano D'Angelo; Università di Chieti-Pescara    Martin Labaj; University of Economics in Bratislava    Erika Majzlíková; University of Economics in Bratislava
Presented by: Claudio Di Berardino, Università di Chieti-Pescara
Technology sovereignty and technology adoption. The case of 3D printing Abstract Technology sovereignty and technology adoption. The case of 3D printing
By Valentina Giannini; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Donato Iacobucci; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Martina Orci; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Valentina Giannini, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Donato Iacobucci, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Martina Orci, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Exploring the nexus between appropriability and productivity in highly innovative and globalised companies Abstract The role of appropriability conditions, such as Intellectual Property Rights protection, as ”Schumpeterian” incentive to innovation has been largely explored in the empirical literature. In this paper, we contribute to this strand and explore the role of appropriability conditions on firm labor productivity under different configurations of R&D activities in highly globalized companies. In line with the literature, we show that labor, capital and R&D investments lead to productivity gains, and that the strength of the patent system the firm is embedded into is positively linked to the firm’s labor productivity too. We call this the bright side of IPR. However, stronger intellectual property rights might have a detrimental effect on the R&D returns, which appear to be maximized around the median level of IPR protection. In other words, too much protection might actually reduce R&D returns, again in line with the ”Schumpeterian prediction”. Then, we call this the dark side of IPR. This is one of the first paper highlighting such dichotomy on a purpose-built highquality database of globalized firms, which tend to be the most innovative firms in the world.
By Sara Amoroso; DIW Berlin    Randolph Bruno; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Laura Magazzini; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Randolph Bruno, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Session 38: MIGRATION I October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Roberto Basile, Università dell'Aquila
Do immigrants hurt local public finances? Evidence from Italy Abstract In this paper we estimate the causal impact of immigration to Italy on local public finances, at the municipality level (Comuni), between 2008 and 2015. We make use of administrative data from SIOPE and MEF to analyze revenues and expenditures disaggregated by type. We find that, when immigrants arrive, total (current plus capital) revenues increase while total expenditures are not affected, giving rise to an increase in the surplus of the municipality (all outcome variables in the paper are defined in per capita terms). The arrival of immigrants increases current revenues and, in particular, property tax revenues, fees and other revenues, as well as transfers from other levels of government. We show that there is an increase in property tax revenues from “secondary residences,” which are often rented out and are subject to higher taxation compared to owner-occupied units. On the expenditure side, immigrant inflows lead to greater current spending in total and on various items such as: garbage collection, local police, cultural programs, and public transportation. Capital expenditures decrease instead, when immigrants arrive.
By Rama Dasi Mariani; Università Roma Tre    Anna Maria Mayda; Georgetown University    Furio Camillo Rosati; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Antonio Sparacino; Banca d'Italia
Presented by: Rama Dasi Mariani, Università Roma Tre
Furio Camillo Rosati, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
What is the link between job satisfaction and social inclusion? Integration pathways of migrants in Southern Italy. Abstract In recent decades, immigration in Italy has grown significantly and immigrants' contribution within the labour market has been becoming relevant, especially within some sectors among which is agriculture. Job satisfaction impacts on workers productivity, therefore, numerous studies explore its determinants, distinguishing between work-specific (work environment, task, skills, etc.) and non-work-specific (language, cultural traits, demographic characteristics) determinants. This paper investigates job satisfaction of immigrants who work in Foggia (a town in the South of Italy), where the presence of foreign workers in relation to the local population is high, especially within firms in the agro-industrial sector. The econometric analysis employs an original dataset built through a series of questionnaires administered to foreign workers. The main aim of the paper is to verify whether higher levels of job satisfaction are related to greater social inclusion. Results provide local institutions with relevant policy suggestions about how to improve working conditions.
By Giuseppe Celi; Università di Foggia    Nunzia Nappo; Università di Napoli Federico II    Edgardo Sica; Università di Foggia
Presented by: Nunzia Nappo, Università di Napoli Federico II
Does Migration Affect Aging? A Spatiotemporal Analysis in Italy Abstract Italy is one of the countries mostly experiencing the fastest and highest population aging in the World. This process is accompanied by decreased spatial heterogeneity in the population's age structure within the country, as evidenced by the spatial convergence of Potential Support Ratios (PSRs, i.e., the ratio of the working-age population to the old-age population). Using municipality-level data drawn from the Italian National Institute of Statistics for 2002-2022 and adopting a variable coefficient beta convergence approach, we first show that the spatial convergence of the PSR was more rapid in the last decade. We also examine the impact of demographic components of population growth on convergence. The results show that the convergence of the old-age component mainly drives the spatial convergence of the PSR. In contrast, the working-age component partially counterbalances the convergence process only in the early ten years. Then, its divergent effect fades over time. Changes in the working-age component are further decomposed into the impact of cohort turnover, net working-age migration, and working-age mortality. Evidence suggests that the internal migration of Italians and the international migration of foreigners have played a leading role in modeling the divergent effect of the working-age component in recent years. The bottom line is that only migration can ensure population stability, slow population decline, and be an indispensable resource for the resilience of social systems.
By Roberto Basile; Università dell'Aquila    Cinzia Castagnaro; ISTAT    Francesca Centofanti; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Francesca Licari; ISTAT
Presented by: Roberto Basile, Università dell'Aquila
Session 39: POLICY EVALUATION I October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Elena Cefis, Università di Bergamo
The effects of hiring credits on firms’ dynamics Abstract Despite being a long-standing labour market policy, evidence of the impact of un- targeted hiring credits at the firm-level is largely missing. This paper tries to bridge this gap by implementing a Synthetic difference-in-differences strategy on administra- tive employer-employee data. We apply this new methodology to a hiring credits policy introduced in Italy in 2015. The results evidence an increase in employment but at the same time a reduction in labour productivity, workforce quality and capital intensity. Furthermore, the reduction in labour costs for involved firms does not cast an increase in their profitability.
By Edoardo Santoni; Università di Ferrara    Fabrizio Patriarca; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Margherita Scarlato; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Edoardo Santoni, Università Roma Tre
A Preliminary Analysis of Italian Special Economic Zones on Firm Performance in Southern Italy Abstract This chapter proposes a first analysis of the impact of Italian Special Economic Zones (SEZs) on firms in Southern Italy. To do this, we built a panel dataset of Italian businesses and analyzed the impact of being a firm located in a zone or adjacent to a zone on its number of employees. Preliminary results suggest that SEZs have been successful, because businesses located in a zone and adjacent to a zone have significantly increased their number of employees. Moreover, the SEZ program has induced economic specialization: while businesses in the agricultural sector have not made significant changes to employment, the opposite is true for firms in the industrial and service sectors, where the number of employees has increased significantly
By Emanuele Millemaci; Università di Messina    Fabio Monteforte; Università di Messina    Paolo Mustica; Università di Messina
Presented by: Emanuele Millemaci, Università di Messina
Impacts of cohesion funds on local tourism supply. Counterfactual analysis and Machine Learning approaches Abstract This research provides a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of cohesion fund projects on local tourism development within Italian municipalities. It applies an ex-post counterfactual methodology alongside advanced machine learning techniques to assess the effectiveness of these projects in enhancing the tourism sector. By drawing a comparison between municipalities that received funding and those that did not, the study identifies critical success factors and the role of local characteristics in achieving positive outcomes. Furthermore, predictive analysis using machine learning offers insights into future tourism trends and the potential impacts of ongoing and future cohesion projects. The findings reveal that targeted investment in tourism infrastructure, cultural heritage, and sustainable tourism practices can significantly boost local economies. However, the effectiveness of such investments varies based on regional specifics, suggesting the need for tailored approaches in policy planning and implementation. The study underscores the importance of integrating technological tools and data analytics in policy evaluation and development, paving the way for more informed and strategic decision-making in the tourism sector. Future developments in the field should focus on refining predictive models and exploring the long-term sustainability of tourism-related projects, ensuring they contribute to equitable and inclusive growth across regions.
By Angela Stefania Bergantino; Università di Bari    Gianluca Monturano; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Giulio Pedrini; Università di Enna "Kore"    Raffaele Scuderi; Università di Enna "Kore"
Presented by: Raffaele Scuderi, Università di Enna "Kore"
Innovation policies and firms’ productivity: the Italian Industry 4.0 Plan for digital transformation Abstract Industry 4.0 technologies radically change industrial processes. National governments have enacted innovation policies to support firms’ investments in new technologies and increase productivity growth. The Italian Industry 4.0 Plan (II4.0 Plan) was implemented with this purpose in 2017 and consisted of a horizontal fiscal plan. Using a new methodology that relies on firms’ financial accounts rather than survey data, we identify firms that benefited from the II4.0 Plan’s incentives and extend the analysis to the population of Italian firms. The results from a Difference-in-Differences regression approach show that the investments spurred by the II4.0 Plan positively affect firms’ labour productivity but heterogeneously among size classes, sectors and types of incentive. Hyper and super amortisation and the credit for innovation drive the results. We frame our policy evaluation into the most recent discussion about innovation policies, raising some criticisms on the appropriateness of horizontal policies to foster the digital transition
By Elena Cefis; Università di Bergamo    Stefania Scrofani; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Matteo Tubiana; Università di Bergamo
Presented by: Elena Cefis, Università di Bergamo
Session 40: INFLATION October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Roberto Tamborini, Università di Trento
Neutral Interest Rate, Covid-19 Supply Shocks and Consumer Behavior Changes in Brazil Abstract This article aims to estimate the Brazilian neutral interest rate for quarterly data ranging from 2003Q1 to 2023Q3. We apply a modified Holston-Laubach-Williams model to take into consideration a persistent supply shock related to the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. We also consider changes in consumer behavior occurred during the pandemic period, by estimating an alternative model incorporating the recently released Brazilian Household Consumption Expenditures Price Index (IPGF), to compare the neutral rate estimation with the country's IPCA inflation. The state-space estimation results show that: i) the downward trend of the neutral interest rate in Brazil was interrupted in the beginning of the pandemic, reverting to an upward movement; ii) the estimated final state of the neutral rate was equal to 5.48%, when the IPCA inflation is used, and to 4.48%, with the use of IPGF; iii) the interest rate gap was at least 0.5 p.p higher, in the beginning of the pandemic, when considering the IPGF inflation rate, suggesting that monetary policy stance in Brazil may have been even more stimulative, when compared to the IPCA-related interest rate gap; iv) the Covid-adjusted potential output was indicating an even deeper recession, during the pandemic, which didn't materialize completely due to the strong fiscal stimulus and other economic policy actions.
By Cleomar Gomes da Silva; Federal University of Uberlândia    Pedro Henrique Prado; University of São Paulo and Federal University of Uberlândia
Presented by: Cleomar Gomes da Silva, Federal University of Uberlândia
Phases of Distributive Conflict and Inflation Spirals Abstract This work aims to study the sources of inflation, linking them to the dynamics of income distribution (workers vs firms). This paper goes beyond the distinction between demand and supply components. Rather, it focuses on the process of income distribution and thus of those who appropriate the final output. Price inflation may result from the wage component (workers' side) or the profit component (firms’ side). As a result, inflation acts as a mechanism in which each group exercises its influence, shaping the direction of income distribution. At the same time, inflation in turn affects the distribution of income and affects the real remuneration of the parties involved in income distribution. The key questions of research are: can we characterize distributive-inflation configurations across different historical periods? Can we discern different inflationary sources (wages vs profits) within a class struggle framework with increasing returns? How do we frame the relationship between market power and firms' price-setting behavior? We try to answer the relevant questions of the following work through empirical investigation and then a simple nonlinear dynamic model recalling the predator-prey skeleton, to capture the dynamics of income distribution. The order of the sections of the work is not random. In fact, empirical analysis is capable of historically outlining the nature of the different inflationary episodes (either deflationary or more generally low inflation) for the US economy since 1960 and possibly trace the presence of inflationary spirals driven by wages or profits. This section is ancillary to the next one, where we will present the nonlinear dynamic model from which we first show the coexistence of the two sources and then the emergence of these. The goal is to build a kind of model of what we can trace empirically previously. As mentioned above, first, we provide a historical overview of the inflation dynamics of the United States from 1960: Q1 to 2023: Q3, analyzing the cyclical nature of distributive variables (profit margins, share of labor, nominal wages and corporate profits) with respect to the rate of inflation. This is carried out through a study of the comovements of the cyclic components of the variables mentioned above, by applying a CF filter. We study the comovements of the above relationships in three historical phases (Great Inflation, Great Moderation and from the Great Recession to the present day). We document a cyclical change in behavior, especially between the cyclical nature of Great Inflation and that of the last phase, with the Great Moderation as important transition stages anyway. After checking this change, we then perform a phase-structural investigation in the time frequency domain using wavelet analysis. This not only confirms what has already emerged but provides us with useful information to track the phase change and at what specific frequency, of the macro-aggregate relationships of before, this happens. In addition, we also studied the intensity of the relationship in the time-frequency spectrum, going to see which frequency bands are shared with greater energy in the time range that we considered. The phase change in relationships is noted, with a different intensity of distributive variables depending on a given historical phase of reference. Finally, we develop a 2D nonlinear dynamic model that replicates the coexistence of inflationary sources. As mentioned before, the model intends to trace the predatory prey skeleton to formally capture the struggle between workers and firms to share the largest possible slice of final output. The two state variables are the unemployment rate and labour share (i.e., complementary to profit share), with a process of endogenous formation of increasing returns that can feed the labour productivity growth endogenously. To reproduce the two sources of inflation, we first assume a markup pricing behaviour. Subsequently, we assume a specific functional form to the dynamic equation of the markup, that in this case is made to depend positively on the firms’ profitability (proxied by the profit share, endogenous in the model) and an exogenous parameter that approximates supply chain conditions. This allows us to decompose the price dynamic equation into two components (i.e., additive components): profit and wage components. The emergence of one rather than the other depends on the specific underlying macrodynamic distribution configuration. One of the features is the presence of two power parameters. One of them captures the power of workers in the transition between prices and wages, to defend real wages from inflation. This allows the path of real wage growth to be unbalanced in our model. The model can reproduce a variety of topological properties ranging from the presence of limit cycles to that of spirals. The two parameters of bifurcation (ie Hopf bifurcation), important for both quantitative analysis and economic interpretation, are learning and the coefficient of market power (productivity elasticities to output and margin elasticities to companies' share of profits, respectively). In particular, the former acts as a stabilizing force while the latter acts as a destabilizing force of the system, with inversely proportional repercussions on price dynamics. Moreover, what this model highlights is the asymmetry of behaviour between firms and workers in the response to any supply-side shock. More generally, power is not symmetrically distributed between firms and workers.
By Giovanni Dosi; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Davide Usula; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Maria Enrica Virgillito; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Davide Usula, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Inflation surprises in a New Keynesian economy with a “true” consumption function Abstract The resurgence of inflation has been accompanied by a reversal of prospects of growth, with a prominent role assigned to the fall of households' purchasing power. Yet this real income effect of inflation surprises, independent of restrictive monetary policy, is not present in the standard New Keynesian models for monetary policy. The reason lies in the formulation of the consumption‐based “IS equation”. The paper shows how the income effect can be introduced by reformulating the consumption function, with the conse quence that it exerts an autonomus stabilization effect on inflation. The main monetary policy implications are examined by means of simulations.
By Roberto Tamborini; Università di Trento
Presented by: Roberto Tamborini, Università di Trento
Session 41: INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Maria Rosa Battaggion, Università di Bergamo
The role of technology in an endogenous timing game with Corporate Social Responsibility Abstract This research studies the endogenous choice of simultaneous (Cournot) or sequential (Stackelberg) moves in a quantity-setting duopoly in which firms have social concerns and convex technologies. A parsimonious non-cooperative endogenous timing game (ETG) is developed to determine the sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE). The article shows that the endogenous market structure strictly depends on the technology the firm uses. In detail, when costs are convex, the sequential move can emerge as the SPNE of the ETG. If the convex technologies are symmetric, being the leader is a priori ambiguous as there are multiple Nash equilibria. If the convex technologies are asymmetric, the leader is the firm with the higher extent of increase in marginal costs. These results contrast the SPNE emerging in a duopoly - with or without CSR - in which firms produce with constant returns to scale (linear costs) where only the standard simultaneous competition occurs. The article also discusses the welfare outcomes corresponding to the SPNE. The main findings also offer empirical and policy implications.
By Domenico Buccella; Kozminski University, Warsaw    Luciano Fanti; Università di Pisa    Luca Gori; Università di Pisa
Presented by: Luca Gori, Università di Pisa
Prices, retail markups and market shares in the pharmaceutical industry Abstract We examine the relationship between prices and product market shares in the Indian pharmaceutical industry. Using detailed data on product-level sales, wholesale and retail prices for narrowly defined markets, we identify the marginal effects of wholesale price and retail markup on product market shares. We tackle the simultaneity bias by instrumenting wholesale price with quantity-based product-level productivity and retail markup with firm average markup in the non-focal markets. Although prices and market shares are positively correlated, our IV estimates show that a one-percent higher wholesale price reduces market share by 5.7 percent, whereas a one-percent higher retail markup reduces market share by 1.5 percent. This implies that elasticity of substitution across medicines within a market is almost four times larger for the retailers than the consumers. These results, combined with the evidence that wholesale prices are correlated negatively with product-level productivity, suggest that, although productivity differences induce price competition, they do not necessarily improve access to medicines in the presence of manufacturer market power and retailer buyer power.
By Gianluca Antonecchia; KU Leuven    Ajay Bhaskarabhatla; Erasmus School of Economics
Presented by: Gianluca Antonecchia, KU Leuven
Strategic anonymity and behavior-based pricing Abstract In a model of behavior-based price discrimination (BBPD), we argue that sellers may have discretionary power to let buyers decide whether to be identified (e.g., creating an account) or remain anonymous (no account creation). The price equilibria generate a more fragmented market segmentation than under the standard BBPD. Firms might prefer a policy where they leave buyers the decision to remain or not be anonymous, breaking the standard BBPD result. Furthermore, firms can realize higher profits than under uniform pricing, contrary to the standard BBPD. Also, firms may adopt asymmetric policies concerning the account creation requirement
By Stefano Colombo; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Paolo Garella; Università di Milano    Noriaki Matsushima; Osaka University
Presented by: Stefano Colombo, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
The Role of Entry in a Mixed Oligopoly with Licensing Abstract We consider a mixed quantity-setting oligopoly model in which two private and partially public incumbent firms face further competition from an entrant. The incumbents may acquire the quality-improving license from the innovator. The innovator, an outsider to the market, may decide whether to make the quality-improving license exclusive to one of the incumbents or non-exclusive and decide whether to make such a transaction via an upfront fee or per unit royalty fee. In this environment, we first show that even without quality-improving licensing, a semi-public firm always benefits from the entry, even if the entrant's quality is higher than its own. Although an entrant makes the competition fiercer and reduces the incumbents' private profits, a partially public firm can internalize this externality through increasing social welfare. When firms are innovative and constrained to exclusive contracts, it is optimal for the innovator to sell the license exclusively to the semi-public firm. However, with a new entrant in the production market, in contrast to the existing literature, royalty licensing outperforms fixed-fee licensing regardless of the innovation size and the entrant's quality.
By Maria Rosa Battaggion; Università di Bergamo    Gülen Karakoç; Università di Pavia
Presented by: Maria Rosa Battaggion, Università di Bergamo
Session 42: AI, ROBOTS AND DIGITAL TECH I October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Alessandro Sterlacchini, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Contested Transparency: Digital Monitoring Technologies and Worker Voice Abstract Advances in artificial intelligence and data analytics have notably expanded employers’ monitoring and surveillance capabilities, facilitating the accurate observability of work effort. There is an ongoing debate among academics and policymakers about the productivity and broader welfare implications of digital monitoring (DM) technologies. In this context, many countries confer information, consultation and codetermination rights to employee representation (ER) bodies on matters related to workplace organization and the introduction of new technologies, which could potentially discourage employers from making DM investments. Using a cross-sectional sample of more than 21000 European establishments, we find instead that establishments with ER are more likely to utilize DM technologies than establishments without ER. We also document a positive effect of ER on DM utilization in the context of a local-randomization regression discontinuity analysis that exploits size-contingent policy rules governing the operation of ER bodies in Europe. We rationalize this unexpected finding through the lens of a theoretical framework in which shared governance via ER creates organizational safeguards that mitigate workers' negative responses to monitoring and undermines the disciplining effect of DM technologies.
By Gabriel Burdin; University of Leeds    Stefano Dughera; Università di Torino    Fabio Landini; Università di Parma    Filippo Belloc; Università di Siena
Presented by: Stefano Dughera, Università di Torino
The economic potential of Earth Observation services: insight from Machine Learning models, expert assessment and Montecarlo simulations Abstract Earth Observation (EO) is a strategic domain of the space industry, shaping a vast array of services and applications with profound impacts on our society and lifestyle. This study investigates the potential of EO for the economy through a multi-method approach. First, by employing a machine learning methodology, we leverage scientific literature production related to EO as a proxy for its potential across various sectors. Our analysis identifies agriculture and mining as sectors primed to realize substantial benefits from EO applications and services in the future. Second, employing the Monte Carlo Method, feeded by the combined results of of a survey with 106 final users and a Delphi method involving 13 EO leading experts, we quantify the potential value added in each pertinent economic sector for Italy. We project that the Italian economy could experience an annual increase of approximately 1% with extensive utilization of EO services and applications.
By Paolo Castelnovo; Università dell'Insubria    Massimo Florio; Università di Milano    Veronica Lupi; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam    Valentina Morretta; Università di Milano    Lorenzo Zirulia; Università di Milano
Presented by: Valentina Morretta, Università di Milano
Beyond the robot: the economic effect of diverse technologies Abstract In recent years, understanding the economic implications of technological advancements on the labor market has gained considerable importance for academics and policymakers because the new technological revolution (e.g., robots) has again put the phenomenon at the center of the debate. In this study, we specifically focus on the labor impact of robots and Numerical Control Machines (CNC) because it implies a higher level of automation (Integrated automation). The theoretical background is drawn from the two forces previously studied by Vivarelli (1995) and updated by Acemoglu & Restrepo (2018): displacement and productivity labor effects. The objective is to analyze the impact of specific automation strategies on employment at the firm level and determine how these automation strategies affect labor demand for different types of workers. We use the panel data set of the Spanish manufacturing firm “Encuesta sobre estrategias empresariales” (ESEE) from 1990 to 2017. The empirical methodology, based on Guadalupe et al. (2012) and Koch et al. (2021), combines the fixed effects approach with a propensity score reweigh estimator. The results suggest a positive effect on overall employment, captured mainly by CNC (non-significant effects for robots). However, we also identified a negative impact when robots and CNC are introduced simultaneously, capturing a labor-saving effect (integrated automation). We also estimate by type of worker and for high- and low-tech sectors.
By Guillermo Arenas Díaz; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Fabio Montobbio; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Mariacristina Piva; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Guillermo Arenas Díaz, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Factors enhancing AI adoption by firms. Evidence from France Abstract In this paper we consider firms involved in two waves (2019 and 2021) of the French ICT survey to distinguish between early and late adopters of AI technologies and to highlight some relevant antecedents that facilitated the former to keep and the latter to start adopting them. The implementation of data security systems, the training and recruitment of employees for ICT, and the use of websites and social media for collecting information on customers, increase the probability of keeping and starting the AI adoption. We also show that the impact of these factors differs according to the business function AI technologies are used for. They appear to be more relevant for the administration and marketing functions. Furthermore, the usage of AI for marketing is also fostered by the antecedent use of e-commerce and CRM applications. These findings support the hypothesis that the AI adoption by firms is shaped by a hierarchical trajectory, from less to more complex and demanding technologies in terms of complementary investments in ICT and skills.
By Alessia Lo Turco; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Alessandro Sterlacchini; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Alessandro Sterlacchini, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Session 43: CLIMATE CHANGE I October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Francesco Busato, Università di Napoli Parthenope
Multisectoral tools for environmental targets of sustainable economic change Abstract Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere pose a risk to human life and ecosystems. The planet's temperature is gradually increasing, causing changes in weather patterns, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events. In 2015, countries agreed on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which includes 17 goals, one of which is climate action. As an EU member, Italy has committed to reducing GHG emissions by 55% compared to 1990 levels by 2030. To achieve this, policymakers need to select the best policies to reconcile environmental protection and economic performance under the short-term constraint that the technology does not change. Therefore, the fiscal policy becomes the most suitable tool in the short term. This study uses a GHG Extended Multisectoral Model (GEMM) based on the Italian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) that depicts the interdependence between the economic system and GHG emissions by modelling the production process, the circular flow of income, and the flow of these emissions. We apply the Macro Multiplier (MM) approach to the GEMM to identify the convenient structures of final demand (policy control) associated with the targeted level of GHG emissions for Italy that is compatible with the positive change in the GDP.
By Marcello Signorelli; Università di Perugia    Claudio Socci; Università di Macerata    Rosita Pretaroli; Università di Macerata    Francesca Severini; Università di Macerata    Stefano Deriu; Università di Macerata    Eduardo Moreno Reyes; Università di Macerata    Ludovica Almonti; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Ludovica Almonti, Università di Macerata
How do weather shocks impact economically vulnerable households in the Gambia? Abstract Climate change is boosting the frequency of weather shocks, posing a significant challenge for agriculture-dependent economies like those in Sub-Saharan African countries. In this study, we present an innovative framework that combines empirical and theoretical procedures to investigate the propagation mechanism of weather shocks in The Gambia. We first document the propagation mechanism of a weather shock using a Structural Vector Auto-regressive (SVAR) model on the Gambia data. We construct and estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to elucidate this mechanism. This model is enhanced to encapsulate the weather-dependent agricultural sector, the heterogeneity of households in terms of financial market access, and the inflow of remittances. Our model differentiates between two types of households: the financially constrained “Hand-to-Mouth” households and the “Ricardian” households, which can invest in physical capital and bonds. Our findings reveal that weather shocks in The Gambia (i) account for approximately 10% of GDP and agricultural output in the short run,(ii) significantly contribute to long-term consumption volatility,(iii) critically increase the volatility of Ricardian households’ consumption, and (iv) stimulate an increase in the direct inflow of remittances to vulnerable households.
By Ebrima Bayo; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Francesco Busato; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Gianluigi Cisco; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Maria Ferrara; Università di Napoli Parthenope
Presented by: Francesco Busato, Università di Napoli Parthenope
Session 44: CRIME & CORRUPTION I October 25, 2024 8:30 to 9:50 Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Roberto Ricciuti, Università di Verona
The Determinants of Illegal Gambling in Italy: an Empirical Investigation at a Provincial Level Abstract In this paper, using a set of explanatory variables (enforcement variables, legal gambling, crime rate, income, education, unemployment and other socioeconomic and demographic variables) we aim to investigate the determinants of illegal gambling in the Italian provinces (NUTS-3 level), over the period 2015-2023, driven by the two following research questions: i) what are the main determinants of the illegal gambling market in Italy over the period, and ii) whether legal gambling acts as a substitute of illegal gambling or represents a further incentive for illegal gamblers Italy represents a compelling case study because of the strong presence of organized crime systems (Scarpinato, 2008) in the illegal markets. Although previous studies on the dynamics of gambling exist, no other study, as far as we know, has evaluated the socio-economic-demographic correlates of illegal gambling patterns in Italy. The results of this study might have important implications in order to develop sound policies related to gambling in the country.
By Amedeo Argentiero; Università degli Studi Internazionali di Roma    Alessio D'Amato; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Anna Rita Germani; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Amedeo Argentiero, Università degli Studi Internazionali di Roma
Unearthing the Nexus: Latifundia, Earthquakes, and the Emergence of the Sicilian Mafia Abstract This paper explores the the historical origins of the Mafia and its roots in the Sicilian latifundia. By employing earthquake intensity as an instrumental variable to tackle endogeneity concerns, our study reveals a significant relationship between the presence of the Mafia during its initial historical appearances in the second half of the 19th century and the characteristics of latifundia. Latifundia, distinguished by large landowners and extensive agriculture, including the rotation of single-crop, pasture, and fallow lands, is found to be closely linked to this heightened Mafia presence. Moreover, our analysis rules out contemporary socio-economic factors by considering a set of control variables such as agricultural proxies. These findings highlight a persistent historical pattern of inequality, proxied by the spread of latifundia, underscoring the enduring influence of the medieval feudal system, transformed into latifundia, on social dynamics. Our findings suggest that policies aimed at reducing the concentration of land ownership and promoting land reform could effectively have curbed the emergence of organized crime in areas with a history of comparatively higher land ownership inequality.
By Michele Battisti; Università di Palermo    Giovanni Bernardo; Università di Napoli Federico II    Andros Kourtellos; University of Cyprus    Andrea Mario Lavezzi; Università di Palermo
Presented by: Giovanni Bernardo, Università di Napoli Federico II
The Impact of Government Size on Corruption: a Meta-Regression Analysis Abstract We perform a Meta-Regression Analysis (MRA) of the literature on government size and corruption, examining 450 empirical estimates retrieved from 44 primary papers published from 1998 to 2022. We find considerable heterogeneity in the results, mainly depending on whether the paper is published or not, accounts for endogeneity and uses panel or cross-sectional data. Moreover, the type of indicator used to measure corruption has a significant impact on the sign of the relationship with government size. Finally, adding variables defined at the country level as regressors, per capita GDP does not lead to significant results, whereas we find a positive relationship between the countries’ corruption index and the effect size.
By Graziella Bonanno; Università di Salerno    Lucia Errico; Università della Calabria    Nadia Fiorino; Università dell'Aquila    Roberto Ricciuti; Università di Verona
Presented by: Roberto Ricciuti, Università di Verona
Session 45: OPENING THE BLACK BOX: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF AI TECHNOLOGIES October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Marco Vivarelli, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Are AI technologies reshaping the Italian labor market? Abstract Amid growing concerns about AI-led technological unemployment, a recent (and increasing) body of empirical evidence generally reports no or positive effects of AI technologies on employment. Yet, the research so far has mainly focused on estimating the aggregate effects, remaining silent on the underlying dynamics—firms’ and workers’ responses to AI exposure—that shape these outcomes. We address this gap by focusing on the Italian context and estimating the effects at both the occupational and individual worker levels. In particular, we explore how increased AI exposure correlates with net job flows and the probability of employment transitions, including job upgrading, firm and sectoral mobility. Furthermore, detailed heterogeneity analyses are carried out, differentiating workers by skills, age and gender, to examine the potentially asymmetric impact of AI technologies.
By Nicola Caravaggio; Università del Molise    Silvia Ciucciovino; Università Roma Tre    Francesco Crespi; Università Roma Tre    Dario Guarascio; Sapienza Università di Roma    Jelena Reljic; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Jelena Reljic, Sapienza Università di Roma
Worker management through AI: A patent-based analysis of Artificial Intelligence Worker Management technologies Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) is currently understood as one of the major threats to labour , although its use might in principle even ameliorate workers safety and health. Unlike conventional machines, the fundamental distinction of AI lies in its capacity to learn, coupled with the massive ability to store information through cloud computing.
By Jacopo Staccioli; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Maria Enrica Virgillito; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Jacopo Staccioli, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regions Abstract The present paper sheds light on the intricate relationship between the emergence of the new generation of digital technologies and the distribution of income between capital and labor inputs. Our research specifically aims to determine whether advancements in AI contribute to widening gaps in how rewards are distributed among factors of production, potentially fueling income inequality. Analyzing data from European regions dating back to 2000, we find that for every doubling of regional AI innovation, there is an 8% decline in the labor share. Delving deeper into the impact of AI on worker skill levels, we find that high-skilled labor remains unaffected by the development of the new technology. Conversely, there is strong evidence that AI reduces the income of workers with medium-level skills. But it hits low-skilled workers even harder, cutting their income share by 9%.
By Francesco Venturini; Università di Urbino    Klaus Prettner; Vienna University of Economics and Business    Antonio Minniti; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Francesco Venturini, Università di Urbino
Revisiting the KSTE & I through a technology-based perspective Abstract Ever since Joseph Schumpeter ([1911] 1934, 1939, 1942), there has been a widespread consensus on the role played by innovation and the entrepreneur. Starting from the former, innovation is meant to be a “disruptive force” which rules out every doubt about the intrinsic nature of modern economies, converging neither to a static nor towards a dynamic equilibrium. Assuming that the motion of an economy follows a pure “stationary process” leads one to overlook the real force driving the capitalist society on the path of economic development and evolution, namely innovation, which does not tend to restore the former state (Mueller, A. & Vaz-Curado, S., 2019; Henning, M. & McKelvey, M., 2020). Secondly, the disturbance actor is the entrepreneur: contrary to Kirzner’s arguments (1973, 1997), a Schumpeterian formulation of entrepreneur encompasses a subject, who turns inventions (knowledge) into innovations (economic, exploitable knowledge), triggering a process of “creative destruction” (Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1992) and economic growth (Audretsch, D. B. et al., 2006; Acs, Z. et al., 2009; Braunerhjelm, P. et al., 2010). Bearing in mind that “to be born is not enough” (Colombelli, A. et al., 2016), young, knowledge-intensive and innovative firms (Malerba, F., & McKelvey, M. 2020) can be seen as playing the main role in the entrepreneurial process: by introducing dynamism and new technologies onto the market, they foster competition and, displacing inefficient firms, they trigger a selection mechanism; by the same token, this subset of new entrants is the main responsible for the emergence of new sectors (therefore, opportunities), wealth and job creation, net of any business stealing effect (Piva, M. & Vivarelli, M., 2005; Decker, R. et al., 2014; Damsgaard, E. et al., 2017).
By Francesco D'Alessandro; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Enrico Santarelli; Università di Bologna    Marco Vivarelli; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Francesco D'Alessandro, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Session 46: AGENT-BASED MODELS AND GREEN TRANSITION October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Marco Valente, Università dell'Aquila
Sustainable Transition Patterns in the Electricity Sector: a Calibrated Simulation Model for Italy Abstract We present a simulation model designed to represent the Italian electricity system for the purpose of evaluating electricity market dynamics across various scenarios and policy implementations. A primary objective of the analysis is to conduct an assessment of the economic profitability of various energy sources in Italy, with a specific focus on comparing financial returns between fossil fuels and renewables - solar and wind. Emphasis is placed on investigating the role played by carbon pricing in eventually providing the correct incentives to the market and fostering the penetration of renewable energy sources. The model simulates the Italian electricity system replicating the hourly data for a baseline year and then estimating hypothetical results under alternative scenario. The model assumes as units of analysis the set of producers adopting the same energy production method, considering: thermal (gas-fired); solar (photovoltaic); wind; geothermal; hydroelectric. Leveraging on the observed hourly data of the base year and exploiting fairly plausible assumptions, the model computes the expected hourly conditions on the energy system obtained by altering values assumed to be influenced by the policy maker or international energy markets. To simulate scenario, the model assumes the same exogenous conditions observed from the real data, such as the weather affecting renewable generators and electricity demand, while endogenously adjusting the price of electricity, the amount of electricity generation from alternative sources fuel and imports. Production from traditional green sources (hydroelectric and geothermal), energy produced for self-consumption, and exported are assumed identical for the same hour through every simulated year. Similarly, the model assumes that the relative share of import and thermal production remain constant, as well as the safety margin of total energy supply in respect of total energy demand. Based on these assumptions, the model computes hourly-frequency time series of the electricity flows and the associated environmental and financial outcomes, such as CO2 emissions, profits, price, etc. The scenarios analyzed are as follows. First, we take an accounting approach by estimating the financial performance of different market actors based on the realized outcomes of the baseline year (2019). Second, we evaluate financial returns under alternative simulated scenarios characterized by: i) higher penetration of renewables (solar and wind); ii) alternative prices of gas; iii) alternative prices for emissions (EU ETS allowances prices). Of particular interest is the latter scenario. While carbon pricing is typically considered a crucial policy lever to incentivize abatement efforts, such as promoting the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, its effects on the financial returns of diverse energy sources necessitate thorough investigation. Assuming a complete cost pass-through, our findings challenge conventional wisdom, revealing that carbon pricing disproportionately enhances the profitability of gas-fired electricity sources compared to renewables, thereby rendering them more financially appealing in comparison. Contrary to expectations, carbon pricing may inadvertently bolster the financial attractiveness of fossil fuel-based electricity generation.
By Marco Amendola; Università dell'Aquila    Paola D'Orazio; Chemnitz University of Technology    Marco Valente; Università dell'Aquila
Presented by: Marco Amendola, Università dell'Aquila
Prevention First vs. Cap-and-Trade Policies in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model With GHG Emissions Permits Abstract In this work, we ask whether tradable emissions permits, based on the cap-and-trade principle, provide better climate change and economic projections than alternative regulations for GHG emissions, such as operational permits which are commonly used to mitigate non-GHG emissions (prevention first principle). Towards this goal, we simulate climate and the economy through a new version of the Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model, extended to include an emission trading system (ETS) and operational permit systems. We show that climatic and economic projections in an ETS scenario need not be superior to those in an operational permit scenario. Which system delivers more encouraging projections on temperature anomalies, the green transition, and economic dynamics depends on institutional details, such as the set of firms for which permits are mandatory; the regulatory requirement of corrective measures; the magnitude of penalties; the stringency of the ETS. An ETS with a declining number of permits emerges as the best-performing system in terms of macroeconomic, microeconomic, and climate outcomes. A system of operational permits mandatory only for large firms (centralised permits) ranks as the second-best system, provided that the regulator imposes corrective measures regarding R&D expenses and machinery replacement.
By Lilit Popoyan; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Alessandro Sapio; Università di Napoli Parthenope
Presented by: Alessandro Sapio, Università di Napoli Parthenope
An AB-SFC model of finance, technological diffusion, and the low-carbon transition Abstract The rapid adoption of new green technologies is necessary to address the climate crisis (IPCC, 2011; IPCC, 2023). New technologies typically come alongside other innovations, leading to the emergence of ”techno-economic paradigms” that drive new markets, transform production and institutional procedures, and impact the governance of economic systems (Freeman and Louçã, 2001; Perez, 2003; Hall, 2006). Promoting a green transition may thus represent an attempt to foster a new techno-economic paradigm rooted in low-carbon technologies. However, unlike past techno-economic paradigms that naturally evolved through extensive exploration of alternatives and market selection processes, the urgent climate threat demands ways to expedite this process. Reallocating financial capital towards zero and negative emission technologies could accelerate the transition (Mazzucato and Penna, 2015; Schmidt, 2014). We focus on the feedback relations among technological innovation, demand and finance (Caiani et al., 2014) and use this model to study how the position in the technological landscape may affect investors’ portfolio decisions, firms’ access to finance, and ultimately the speed of the transition. We plan to simulate the model across various policy scenarios to assess how investors react to policy changes, while also accounting for the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers, the credibility of policy claims and its implications for investment decision-makers (Mercure et al., 2016). These scenarios include implementing a carbon tax and other industrial and innovation policies identified as contributors to cost reductions in renewable energy (IPCC, 2023). We expect the simulations to provide insights into the theoretical conditions supporting the rapid development and diffusion of green technologies
By Alessandro Caiani; IUSS Pavia    Jessica Reale; IUSS Pavia    Teresa Felici; IUSS Pavia
Presented by: Teresa Felici, IUSS Pavia
Macro-financial Policies for a Green Transition: Insights from an Agen-based Integrated Assessment Model Abstract In this paper we use the Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model to study the effects of fiscal and regulatory policies aimed at sustaining a full energy transition while ensuring financial stability in a green-based regulatory financial framework. The urgency of climate mitigation requires policy-makers to elaborate a portfolio of measures to accelerate the different phases of the transition. For this scope, we evaluate the effectiveness of policies based on carbon pricing as well as on subsidies for green energy production and R&D investments. In the model we allow firms to progressively substitute fossil-fuel to green electricity as input for manufacturing processes. Accordingly, we are able to evaluate the likelihood and the associated risk in pursuing different mitigation and transition pathways. Moreover, we complement the analysis by studying whether the enforcement of a green-friendly regulatory framework is effective in reducing climate uncertainties in green investments and taming the endogenously perceived increasing climate risk along the mitigation trajectories. Relatedly, the adoption of a fully specified stock-flow consistent version of the model gives us the possibility to track the sector-level balance sheet composition and more easily assess the implications for financial stability.
By Gianluca Pallante; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Francesco Lamperti; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Andrea Roventini; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Gianluca Pallante, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Session 47: PRIMATO DELLA TEORIA E RAPPORTO CON LA STORIA IN MAFFEO PANTALEONI, ECONOMISTA E SCIENZIATO SOCIALE (with AISPE - Associazione Italiana per la Storia del Pensiero Economico) October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Claudia Rotondi, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Maffeo Pantaleoni e la guerra Abstract Maffeo Pantaleoni ha dedicato centinaia di pagine (su riviste scientifiche e su giornali e periodici) per analizzare i problemi economici, sociali e politici della Grande Guerra durante il suo svolgimento, dal 1914 in poi. Di questo suo impegno si sono già occupati in sede storiografica vari autori, alcuni mettendone soprattutto in rilievo gli aspetti politico-ideologici, altri la valenza teorico-economica. Con questa ricerca mi propongo di portare l’attenzione su un segmento ancora poco indagato di questa letteratura pantaleoniana. Mi riferisco a quegli scritti in cui l’economista maceratese elabora proposte e idee per affrontare in termini nuovi la crescente complessità che le organizzazioni economiche e le relazioni internazionali stavano assumendo proprio a seguito dello svolgersi della Grande Guerra. Il suo orientamento lo porterà a proporre soluzioni e istituzioni in virtù delle quali l’inevitabile ampliamento delle funzioni pubbliche determinato dall’evento bellico non avrebbe però dovuto comportare l’estensione dello Stato imprenditore.
By Piero Bini; Università di Firenze
Presented by: Piero Bini, Università di Firenze
Il pensiero economico dalle Marche tra Otto e Novecento. Le relazioni scientifiche tra Pantaleoni, Valenti e Coletti Abstract I contributi di pensiero economico sono studiati, a volte, sotto forma di processi di contaminazione fra “centri” (produttori di teorie) e “periferie” (luoghi che le recepiscono). Le Marche, regione di “aurea mediocritas”, sono state spesso considerate abbastanza periferiche in tal senso. Tuttavia, tra Otto e Novecento alcuni apporti di pensiero collocano le Marche su un piano di evidente visibilità, se non altro per l’avvio dei percorsi accademici di almeno tre giovani economisti. Se il traino si deve principalmente a Maffeo Pantaleoni, intellettuale con radici maceratesi, dal 1887 anche Ghino Valenti lavorò a un’importante teoria economico-giuridica degli assetti fondiari collettivi, oltre a co-fondare la teoria economica della cooperazione. Francesco Coletti elaborò, invece, una teoria psicologica (utilitaristico-economica) dell’emigrazione dopo aver contribuito al calcolo della ricchezza nazionale. Il paper mette in luce le relazioni scientifiche che intercorsero tra Pantaleoni, Valenti e Coletti in quegli anni. Tali relazioni, da una parte, fanno risaltare il sostegno che i tre studiosi trovarono in alcuni segmenti delle loro analisi, e non sempre o non esclusivamente nel senso che fu sempre Pantaleoni a influenzare gli altri. Dall’altra parte, questa prospettiva sembra allontanare il pensiero economico delle/dalle Marche tra Otto e Novecento dall’idea di prodotto di “periferia” scientifica.
By Stefano Spalletti; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Stefano Spalletti, Università di Macerata
Dove è il merito? Le posizioni iniziali e finali di Maffeo Pantaleoni sull’uguaglianza di opportunità Abstract La Nota sui caratteri delle posizioni iniziali e sull’influenza che le posizioni iniziali esercitano sulle terminali (Pantaleoni, 1901) – una originale, radicalmente anti-egalitaria argomentazione contro qualsivoglia politica redistributiva – non è stata ancora analizzata specificamente, soprattutto da una prospettiva di storia della disuguaglianza. In questo lavoro, in primo luogo si ricostruiscono le “posizioni iniziali” di Pantaleoni sull’argomento, attraverso una rassegna della sua produzione precedente. Il lavoro è poi collocato nel contesto del tempo, e in particolare, della coeva proposta di imposta successoria di Eugenio Rignano (1901), per poi discuterne i legami con la successiva proposta di abolizione dell’imposta da parte di Pantaleoni, e le influenze sulla letteratura successiva.
By Giacomo Gabbuti; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Giacomo Gabbuti, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Economia e storia in Pantaleoni: distanze e prossimità Abstract Quale concezione può avere della storia Maffeo Pantaleoni l’economista che - considerando l’ultima delle teorie economiche come la più valida e interessante, perché collocata sulla frontiera della conoscenza – sferza con le sue battute taglienti i colleghi “germanisti” della scuola storica? La risposta potrebbe apparire scontata, eppure la non irrilevante presenza della storia nei suoi scritti, sia con riferimento a idee che a fatti economici, suggerisce prudenza rispetto a una interpretazione senza sfumature della posizione di Pantaleoni nella querelle metodologica tra detrattori e sostenitori dell’interazione positiva tra teoria economica e storia. Il contributo intende indagare – sullo sfondo del più ampio tema della separazione o della utile contaminazione tra conoscenza economica e storica – il ruolo che la storia può rivestire, a parere di Pantaleoni, per una scienza economica che ha l’ambizione di essere “pura”, guardando sia ai suoi scritti che alla significativa corrispondenza sul tema con il collega e amico Vilfredo Pareto.
By Claudia Rotondi; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Claudia Rotondi, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Session 48: MIGRATION II October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Barbara Martini, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
The effects of asylum seeker self-selection on the integration in the host country Abstract In this paper we study the process of self-selections undertaken by asylum seek- ers hosted in temporary reception center in Italy, in the Province of Parma. In particular, by differentiating migrants on the basis of their countries of origin and of their countries of destination we identify different groups in the sample popula- tion: refugees and illegal migrants, people directed to Europe and people directed outside Europe. Leveraging on the randomness of the sample with regard to both the dimensions previously mentioned, we compare these groups to identify their specific characteristics. The relevance of this distinction introduced in the population of asylum seekers is then tested with respect to integration outcomes. In particular, we consider the proficiency in the Italian language and the effort exerted by migrants for labour market integration. In both areas, refugees obtain performances which are worse than those of illegal migrants. This result has potentially sizable policy implications as the country of origin of asylum seekers is an information which is recorded soon after arrival. This knowl- edge can be used to design integration policies which are different for refugees and illegal migrants.
By Marco Magnani; Università di Parma
Presented by: Marco Magnani, Università di Parma
The Effect of Air Pollution on Migration: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment Abstract This study considers the relationship between air pollution and internal migration in Italy. We employ a instrumented difference-in-difference approach (DDIV) and analyze data from the Italian urban areas over the period 2003-2019. We implement a quasi-experiment strategy and utilize as exogenous shocks the two most important legislative interventions on environmental regulation of the period (dlgs 152/2006 and dlgs 115/2010 – transposing EU directives) crucially regulating compensatory protection against environmental damage and powers and responsibilities allocation to local authorities. The treatment group involves the provincial capital municipalities for which the PM10 limit for the European standard has been consistently exceeded for 35 days per year (for at least 3 out of the 4 years before the introduction of the first legislative intervention), whereas the control group comprises the municipalities complying with this threshold. Our findings reveal a negative causal impact of air pollution (i.e., PM10) on internal migration. We also find that the environmental regulation introduced in the period considered has significantly reduced pollution exceedance days, increasing the attractiveness of the municipalities more committed in the reduction of urban emissions.
By Giovanni Bernardo; Università di Napoli Federico II    Pasquale Commendatore; Università di Napoli Federico II    Giovanni Fosco; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Presented by: Giovanni Fosco, Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Exploring the relationship between migration and gender segregation in Italy: are women and non-natives more segregated than men and natives? Abstract Migration and gender dynamics represent two intersecting realms of study that have garnered significant attention in contemporary economic discourse, particularly within the context of Italy. Italy, situated at the crossroads of Europe, has long been a destination for migrants seeking economic opportunities, refuge, or reunification with family members. Simultaneously, gender roles and inequalities have undergone profound transformations in recent decades, shaping and being shaped by migration patterns and policies. Understanding the nexus of migration and gender in Italy holds critical importance for policymakers, economists, and social scientists alike. This intersectionality not only illuminates the complex socio-economic landscape of the country but also provides insights into broader global migration trends and gender dynamics. Literature regarding gender and migration highlights that migrations are not gender neutral. As highlighted by the EIGE among 7% of the people living in the European Union are born outside the EU and half of them are women. In Italy in 2023, the number of resident foreigners is approximately 5 million, with about half being women. Italy's migration patterns after 1970 have been marked by significant shifts, reflecting broader global trends, economic transformations, and changes in migration policies. Following World War II, Italy transitioned from being a predominantly emigration country to becoming a destination for immigrants, particularly from Southern Europe. However, it was after 1970 that Italy witnessed a notable increase in immigration from non-European countries, leading to demographic changes and socio-economic impacts. One of the key factors driving migration to Italy after 1970 was the rapid economic development and industrialization in the country, particularly in the Northern regions. This growth created demand for labor in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and services, which attracted workers from Southern Italy as well as from abroad. Internal migration from Southern to Northern Italy continued, but it was complemented by immigration from countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, Albania, and the Philippines. The oil crises of the 1970s and subsequent economic downturns in Southern Europe also contributed to increased migration flows towards Italy. Economic instability and unemployment pushed many individuals and families to seek better opportunities in Italy, leading to a rise in undocumented migration as well as regular migration through family reunification and labor recruitment programs. The 1980s and 1990s saw further diversification of Italy's immigrant population, with significant arrivals from Eastern Europe, particularly Albania and Romania, following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. Additionally, Italy became a destination for asylum seekers and refugees fleeing conflicts and persecution in countries such as Somalia, Ethiopia, and the former Yugoslavia (Del Boca Venturini 2003). Despite considerable social changes in the last decades, labor market inequalities for reasons of gender and migration status still persist in most parts of the world (Adsera and Chiswick 2007; Reyneri and Fullin 2011; Biletta et al. 2019; Grubanov-Boskovic, Tintori and Biagi 2020). In fact, both factors imply well-documented labor disadvantages, such as occupational segregation. Segregation in itself does not tell whether a situation is beneficial or detrimental for a demographic group, as it depends on the quality of the occupations where they are over- or underrepresented. However, we know that females and immigrants tend to occupy positions at the bottom of the occupational ladder and earn lower wages than their male and native counterparts (Kaufman 2010; Ballarino and Panichella 2018). Thus, in the case of women, job segregation largely explains gender pay gaps (Boll, Rossen and Wolf 2017; Blau and Kahn 2017) and the undervaluation of women’s work (Bettio and Verashchagina 2009). The paper’s aim is to examine gender segregation concerning individuals' backgrounds, differentiating between natives and non-natives, as well as contract types, distinguishing between fixed-term and open-ended contracts. The findings yield intriguing economic and social insights that contribute a novel perspective to the literature.
By Barbara Martini; Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Presented by: Barbara Martini, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Session 49: BUSINESS CYCLE October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Carlo D'Ippoliti, Sapienza Università di Roma
From Interaction to Business Fluctuations: How Credit Network Explain Cycles Abstract In this paper, we investigate the dynamic properties of capital flows in the US economy by developing and estimating a microfounded heterogeneous agents macroeconomic model describing the endogenous formation and evolution of credit, deposits, and interbank relations. Indeed, we aim to assess the characteristics of the financial network underlying the observed fluctuations at the aggregate level and evaluate the role of centralization in the outbreak of large-scale crises. Our findings indicate that the emergence of severe crises closely relates to the endogenous formation of a highly centralized financial sector. In particular, we show that investors and banks prefer large financial institutions to allocate their capital or borrow additional liquidity. Accordingly, a bank run hitting those systemic intermediaries, even if extremely rare, has a non-negligible impact on the economy since a considerable share of financial transactions and credit lines depends on their correct functioning. Moreover, since economic agents prefer large financial institutions, a sudden withdrawal of resources, by reducing their attractiveness, tends to be self-reinforcing, thus exacerbating the crisis. Overall, that indicates the need for the policymaker to intervene promptly during those events and avoid vicious circles and more costly bailouts.
By Emanuele Ciola; Università di Brescia    Gabriele Tedeschi; Universidad Jaume I
Presented by: Emanuele Ciola, Università di Brescia
Two Main Business Cycle Shocks are Better than One Abstract This paper challenges the claim of a recent authoritative study that identifies a single shock as the main driver of business cycle fluctuations. We argue that the VAR used in that study is informationally deficient, i.e., it is unable to recover the true structural shock driving business cycle fluctuations. Using a large-dimensional Structural Dynamic Factor model, we present an alternative view of U.S. business cycles, more in line with classical AD-AS theory. This underscores the multivariate nature of cycles and challenges the existence of a Main Business-Cycle shock.
By Antonio Granese; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Presented by: antonio granese, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
Business Cycles, Leading Indicators and Fiscal Dynamics in Brazil Abstract The aim of this article is to examine whether different fiscal instruments in Brazil, related to expenditures and revenues, anticipate the country’s business cycle. The econometric methodology involves the use of Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Models, Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration. For monthly data ranging from January 2003 to April 2023, the following fiscal variables will be analyzed: i) total, mandatory and discretionary expenses; ii) total, direct and indirect taxes. OCDE’s Composite Leading Indicator for Brazil will be our main independent variable, whereas Public Sector Net Debt and CPI-IPCA Price Index will work as control variables. The estimation results show that: i) there is a cointegration relationship in all estimated models, meaning that there is a long-term equilibrium between expenditures/revenues and the leading business cycle indicator; ii) on the other hand, there is an extremely low speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium in all estimated models, indicating that any short-run disturbance is slowly dissipated until the long-run equilibrium is restored; iii) total expenditures and total taxes seem to behave as projected over the business cycle, that is, an expected boom leading to an increase in expenditures and in taxations; iv) but total expenditures exhibit a positive asymmetric behavior, whereas the total taxation’s trajectory is kept on a negative territory; v) when expenditures are broken down into mandatory and discretionary the final result resembles the asymmetric behavior found in total expenditures; vi) as for the disaggregated tax collection, it is clear that the total taxation’s negative trajectory is much more related to the dynamics of direct taxes.
By Benito Salomão; Federal University of Uberlândia    Cleomar Gomes da Silva; Federal University of Uberlândia
Presented by: Benito Salomão Neto, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia
Currency cycles and aggregate activity levels Abstract A growing body of literature considers real activity dynamics as shaped by monetary and financial conditions: in the short term, if not in the medium term too. The thesis explicitly considers exchange rate cycles for developing and emerging economies: from analyses of overevaluation as a cause of premature deindustrialization, to the identification of a “financial Dutch disease” (see for example the notion of a “Global Dollar Cycle” by Obstfeld and Zhou, 2023). The neo-Wicksellian approach extends this view to the advanced, higher income economies. But typically, here too it considers the causes of cyclical dynamics to be exogenous: for example Miranda-Agrippino and Rey (2020) characteristically put forward the assumption that the bulk of variation in an index of the global financial cycle can be traced back to US monetary policy. By contrast, in this work we develop a model of endogenous currency cycles, which cause a key currency to move persistently in one direction over extended periods of time, and then to endogenously switch direction. The model is inspired by Biasco (1987), who provides a detailed conceptual framework but stopped short of developing a formal model. In his analysis, capital flows are at least partly motivated by expectations of GDP growth. In turn, inflows of capital determine appreciations of the exchange rates, which negatively impacts on GDP growth. The interaction of these two variables (GDP growth differentials, and bilateral exchange rates) endogenously produces a cyclical dynamic – which could be reinforced (or rather complemented in the short run) by endogenous reactions of monetary policy, and the interaction of fundamental and momentum traders. Formalization of the model in its reduced form resembles that by Kohler and Stockhammer (2023), but the underlying assumptions – especially in terms of causal mechanisms – are different and focus significantly more on international financial flows and the endogeneity of monetary policy. Time series evidence for the main four reserve currencies (US dollar, euro, yen, and GBP) suggests that the model applies to large, “key” currencies of the richer economies.
By Carlo D'Ippoliti; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Carlo D'Ippoliti, Sapienza Università di Roma
Session 50: ECO-INNOVATION, EXPORT & ESHIP October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Eleonora Pierucci, Università Roma Tre
The persistence of regional entrepreneurship in high-technology sectors – Are all types of historical entrepreneurship equally important? The case of Italian regions Abstract This paper investigates whether a particular type of historical entrepreneurship is conducive to the persistence of start-ups in high technology sectors in Italian provinces. In particular, we focus on the share of entrepreneurs using motive power and on the share of female entrepreneurs in 1927 as predictors of entrepreneurship rates in high-tech sectors nowadays. We argue that the historical propensity of entrepreneurship towards technological change and social change may be an aspect of local culture capable of stimulating innovative entrepreneurship. We also argue that entrepreneurship needs to build on the regional knowledge base to sustain the birth and persistence of innovative start-ups. We find that the combination of a historical entrepreneurial culture open to technological and social change with the local presence of universities positively predicts current entrepreneurship rates in high-technology sectors.
By Stefania Cosci; Università LUMSA    Valentina Meliciani; LUISS Guido Carli    Loredana Mirra; Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Presented by: Loredana Mirra, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Firm Exporting and Innovation Activities: the Role of Credit Constraints Abstract Using microeconomic panel data for Italian firms, we show that firm participation in export markets is beneficial for its innovation activities and the latter, in turn, contribute to increase the likelihood of being exporters. In analyzing this interaction, we focus on financial constraints, which, in general, act in the direction of restraining both of these activities. When we delve into the mechanism, however, we show that, while credit rationing negatively affects innovative activities irrespective of whether the firm is an exporter or a non-exporter, conversely it restrains exporting activities only if the firm does not innovate. Thus, financial constraints play no significant role for the exporting decision if the firm exerts innovation activities. We provide this empirical evidence by controlling for a number of firm-specific characteristics that are likely to affect the decisions on firm’s innovation and foreign market participation.
By Emanuele Brancati; Sapienza Università di Roma    Francesco Nucci; Sapienza Università di Roma    Filomena Pietrovito; Università del Molise    Alberto Franco Pozzolo; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Francesco Nucci, Sapienza Università di Roma
Diffusion, motivations and drivers of the eco-innovations in the Italian industrial system: a study on data from the Community Innovation Survey Abstract The problem of the climate change and its recognized origin in human activity have placed the environmental issue at the center of international agendas. An aspect that received a lot of attention from scholars is eco-innovation, that is the innovation with environmental benefits (IWEB). Analyzing data from the 2020 Community Innovation Survey for Italy, we aim to give an idea of the magnitude of eco-innovation phenomenon in Italy (how many firms introduce eco-innovations?), of the quality of eco-innovations (what kind of benefits derive from them? ) and of the firms attitude towards environmental problems (why do firms introduce eco-innovations?). Moreover, we are interested in moving from the level of declarations to that of the observed links: we analyze the drivers of the eco-innovations introduced by firms, having as a theoretical point of reference a model based on four cluster of determinants: Technology push, Market pull, Environmental policy e Firm specific factors, as introduced by Buzzetti (2019) in a study based on the data of 2014 Community Innovation Survey about 15 countries. The reference to this paper makes it clear that a fundamental goal of this paper is a comparison between the Italian reality and that of other European countries.
By Rosamaria D'Amore; Link Campus University    Roberto Iorio; Università di Salerno    Giuseppe Lubrano Lavadera; Link Campus University
Presented by: Roberto Iorio, Università di Salerno
Eco-innovation, firms’ growth, and the mediating role of export activities Abstract This paper analyses the growth-enhancing effect of different types of innovative activities, i.e., standard-innovation and eco-innovation by focusing on the potential role of exports in mediating the innovation-growth nexus. The empirical study is carried out on a representative sample of Italian firms built by integrating data from the Italian CIS-Community Innovation Survey with the ASIA-FRAME database of the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT), which reports information on export values and employment dynamics. The econometric analysis applies Structural Equations Models (SEM) and a two-step counterfactual analysis. Results show that export activities, spurred by engagement in innovation efforts, represent a powerful transmission channel through which innovation displays its effect on firms’ growth. Moreover, results highlight the existence of some heterogeneity in the capacity of different types of innovation activities, i.e., standard-innovation and eco-innovation to leverage the export channel to foster firms’ growth. In particular, the empirical evidence has identified a stronger indirect export-mediated impact for Efficiency-improving (EFI) than for Pollution-reducing (PR) Eco-innovation.
By Serenella Caravella; Università Roma Tre    Giovanni Cerulli; CNR-IRCrES    Francesco Crespi; Università Roma Tre    Eleonora Pierucci; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Eleonora Pierucci, Università Roma Tre
Session 51: POLICY EVALUATION II October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Elena Rossi Espagnet, Sapienza Università di Roma
Predicting EU Sustainability Funding: A Machine Learning Approach Abstract The push for sustainable territorial development has gained momentum within the EU, particularly in rural and remote areas, due to mounting environmental concerns and socio-economic difficulties. National and international initiatives have been introduced to bolster sustainability, often relying on competitive participation models where local entities vie for funding. However, inefficient fund allocation poses a significant risk to these approaches. This study delves into the distribution of funds for sustainable development, focusing on the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) under the Common Agricultural Policy. Using firm-level data from Italy’s Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), the research examines the characteristics of farms that secured funds for sustainable natural resource management and climate action between 2014 and 2020. Employing Machine Learning (ML) techniques, eight algorithms were assessed to predict firms’ likelihood of obtaining funds, with Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Support Vector Machine proving most effective. Key predictors of fund allocation include territorial attributes, economic dimensions, production specialization, and internal factors. The analysis demonstrates the potential of ML in enhancing predictability, offering policymakers insights into tailoring agricultural policies to leverage firms’ strengths and address weaknesses in securing European funds.
By Nicola Caravaggio; Università del Molise    Giuliano Resce; Università del Molise    Cristina Vaquero Pineiro; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Cristina Vaquero Pineiro, Università Roma Tre
Perceived effectiveness and acceptance of policies to prevent DUI-related road traffic accidents: Some evidence from Italy Abstract This study aims to investigate the determinants of acceptance of public policies aimed at reducing road-traffic accidents related to driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Our findings are based on two surveys: (a) a mixed-method (CATI-CAWI) survey on a random sample of 508 adults living in the province of Rimini, Italy; (b) a CAWI survey administered to 4,065 students registered at the the University of Bologna. The surveys also included questions on the perceived effectiveness of 16 different real and potential policy actions, with very different levels of paternalism, intrusiveness and coerciveness. Through non-linear principal component analysis, we summarize and classify risk perceptions and statements on the perceived effectiveness of different policy measures into three groups: alcohol consumption, highly intrusive and soft measures. Through regression analysis (including instrumental variable estimates) we explore associations between perceived effectiveness, acceptance of current laws and their potential determinants. The findings are expected to help decision-makers to prioritize and calibrate their measures depending on the target groups. While the results are not necessarily generalizable to other populations, our study proposes and tests a comprehensive measurement and statistical methodology to support similar analyses in the future.
By Enrico Alessandri; Università di Bologna    Sara Capacci; Università di Bologna    Mario Mazzocchi; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Enrico Alessandri, Università di Bologna
Fiscal Policy in Monetary Unions: Central Bank Independence, Country Size, and Economic Conditions Abstract Independent central banks typically counteract positive fiscal shocks that would otherwise increase the inflation rate above the target. In a theoretical model, we show that, in a monetary union, this mechanism implies weaker responses to national fiscal shocks because the overarching central bank must account for the fiscal policies of all members. The model highlights that the response is especially weak for small members, given their marginal impact on the union’s aggregate inflation rate. Empirically, we exploit the exogenous variation in elections to show that the European Central Bank reacts more vigorously to fiscal shocks from larger countries. We then provide evidence that small countries take advantage of this; they engage more in fiscal expansions during election years than large countries. In an extension, we discuss, both theoretically and empirically, why the difference between small and large countries disappears in times of crisis.
By Frank Bohn; School of Management, Radboud University Nijmegen    Lamar Crombach; KOF der ETH Zurich    Jan-Egbert Sturm; KOF der ETH Zurich
Presented by: Frank Bohn, School of Management, Radboud University Nijmegen
Sanctions weren’t built in a day: A comparison on the effectiveness of 2014 and 2022 European sanctioning regimes towards the Russian Federation Abstract Sanctions and their effectiveness have gained a crucial role in today’s economic debate. Many studies are focusing on the impact of sanctions on GCV and on their effect on deglobalization and reshoring. This paper aims at investigating, through the application of Synthetic Difference in Difference, the effects of sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU) on the Russian Federation, comparing the two regimes imposed in 2014 and 2022. The results suggest a strong negative impact of the 2022 sanctions on exports to Russia, contrasting with the 2014 sanctions. Previous studies indicate that the 2014 sanctions were not successful, as exported quantities eventually returned to pre-sanctions levels despite an initial decline. However, the 2022 sanctions demonstrate significant short-term negative effects.
By Elena Rossi Espagnet; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Elena Rossi Espagnet, Sapienza Università di Roma
Session 52: L'UTILIZZO DEI MICRODATI STATISTICI SULLE IMPRESE PER LA RICERCA APPLICATA: L'ESPERIENZA DELL'ISTAT (with ISTAT - Istituto Nazionale di Statistica) October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)
Session Chair: Stefano Menghinello, ISTAT
Human capital and firm resilience to the Covid-19 shock: some evidence from Italy Abstract Human capital and firm resilience to the Covid-19 shock: some evidence from Italy
By Eleonora Bartoloni; ISTAT    Andrea Marino; ISTAT
Presented by: Andrea Marino, ISTAT
Modelli di adozione tecnologica nelle imprese italiane ed effetti occupazionali Abstract Modelli di adozione tecnologica nelle imprese italiane ed effetti occupazionali
By Stefano De Santis; ISTAT    Leonardo Iacovone; World Bank    Silvia Lombardi; ISTAT    Giulio Perani; ISTAT    Fabiano Schivardi; LUISS Guido Carli
Presented by: Stefano De Santis, ISTAT
Giulio Perani, ISTAT
Urban premium in firm performance: micro data analysis Abstract Urban premium in firm performance: micro data analysis
By Alessandro Faramondi; ISTAT    Francesco Giovanni Truglia; ISTAT
Presented by: Alessandro Faramondi, ISTAT
Session 53: AI, ROBOTS AND DIGITAL TECH II October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Stefania Scrofani, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Regular Internet Users Across the Italian Regions Abstract In the following article we analyze the determinants of regular internet users in the Italian regions. The data is analyzed both in terms of static analysis and also through the application of the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow method. Subsequently, an econometric model is presented for estimating regular internet users in the Italian regions based on variables that reflect the state of technological innovation and digital culture. The results are analyzed and discussed in light of the implications that digitalisation has for triggering economic growth.
By Massimo Arnone; Università di Catania    Alberto Costantiello; Lum University    Angelo Leogrande; LUM Enterprise S.r.l.
Presented by: Massimo Arnone, Università di Catania
European labour markets and exposure to labour saving technical change: results from a direct text similarity measure Abstract How do European labour markets face the impact of labour-saving technologies? This article looks at the impact on wages and employment for nuts-3 European regions of labour-saving automation. Drawing upon Montobbio et al. (2023), we employ a metric for measuring the exposure of occupations to robotic labour-saving technologies. After having identified robotic and labour-saving robotic patents, the underlying 4-digit CPC (Cooperative Patent Classification) code definitions, together with O*NET (Occupational Information Network) task descriptions, are employed to detect functions and operations which are more likely to substitute the labour input and their overall exposure to labour-saving automation. This measure allows us to obtain fine-grained information on tasks and occupations according to their text similarity ranking. To adapt the occupational exposure measure to the European Labour market, we first conduct a crosswalk from the Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) to the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO). Subsequently, utilizing data from the European Labour Force Surveys (EU-LFS), we calculate the exposure of European countries to labour-saving technologies at the occupation-industry level. Finally, by employing the European Structure of Earnings (EU-SES), we link occupations and wage structures. This procedure enables us to explore the dynamics of occupational exposure in Europe concerning wages and employment, allowing for an investigation into industry and geographical penetration rates.
By Federico Riccio; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Jacopo Staccioli; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Maria Enrica Virgillito; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Federico Riccio, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Data analysts and firm performance: Empirical evidence on Italian manufacturing firms Abstract A comprehensive literature emphasizes the role of human capital as a crucial factor in determining the success of firms. This literature focuses mostly on the role of high skilled employees working in R&D departments or managers involved in implementing competitive strategies that are effective. Recent studies on firm performance highlight the increasing relevance of ICT technologies, especially artificial intelligence. However, the effect of people with expertise on these technologies, i.e. data analysts, has been neglected in the literature. This article aims to fill this gap by analysing the impact of data analysts on firm performance. Using a new dataset on Italian manufacturing companies, our findings demonstrate that hiring data analysts is positively correlated with firm growth, particularly in external uncertain environments.
By Riccardo Cappelli; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Marco Cucculelli; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Riccardo Cappelli, Università Politecnica delle Marche
The diffusion of digital services in the Public Administration: patterns and drivers among Italian Municipalities Abstract Digitalization has proved to have a critical impact on firms and society. The diffusion of digital technologies and platforms is, therefore, an important phenomenon that requires a multidimensional approach, namely considerations of geographical, organisational and individual factors. The available evidence on the diffusion of technologies concerns firms. This paper investigates the spread of digitalisation in public administration. We employ Bayesian spatial survival models with time-varying data on the use by Italian municipalities of the e-payment service provider (PagoPA) from 2012 to 2021. The findings reveal that digital technology diffusion initially concerns municipalities that are regional capitals, following a hierarchical geographical diffusion process, before gradually spreading to smaller neighbouring centres. Mayors’ characteristics and education of the public administrations’ workforce do not influence the speed of digitalisation. However, the age of municipalities’ employees emerges as a significant determinant of digitalisation speed in the South of Italy. This result, combined with the evidence of low training expenditures, highlights the localised presence of insufficient human capital formation, and particularly in the South of Italy it would be important to address this gap to accelerate the digital transformation
By Stefania Scrofani; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Andrea Mina; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Elena Cefis; Università di Bergamo
Presented by: Stefania Scrofani, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Session 54: PUBLIC ECONOMICS October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Agnese Sacchi, Università di Urbino
Have autocrats governed for the long term? Abstract The short answer is: probably not. We infer the priorities of national governments from observed outcomes, constructing a statistical proxy for long-term orientation. Using panel data, we show that our measure of long-term orientation Granger-causes public investment. We then show that its distribution under democracy first-order stochastically dominates its distribution under autocracy. This suggests that variation in long-term orientation is not a good candidate to explain the ‘autocratic gamble’ – the well-known tendency for growth rates to vary more widely across autocracies than across democracies. The true sources of the autocratic gamble remain a conundrum.
By Emanuele Millemaci; Università di Messina    Fabio Monteforte; Università di Messina    Jonathan Temple; Independent researcher
Presented by: Fabio Monteforte, Università di Messina
Ostrom against heating costs: empirical Evidence from managing buildings in Ukraine Abstract I empirically investigate whether local institutions are more efficient at governing the commons than centralised systems, using a database of heating consumption from 8839 multi-apartment buildings in Kyiv. Additionally, 12 interviews were conducted with representatives from home-ownership associations to provide a better interpretation of the results and understanding of the channels. The empirical analysis reveals that buildings with home-ownership associations reduce their heating consumption compared to those externally governed by municipal or private companies. The first channel for this reduction is the elimination of the principal-agent problem, allowing for more flexible heating regulation by home-ownership associations during warmer months. The second channel involves investments made through co-finance programs in which home-ownership associations participate. Such investments significantly affect heating consumption reduction, unlike unconditional investments from the city budget. The inefficiency of the latter type of investments can be attributed to both principal-agent and free-riding problems. The estimation results are consistent with Elinor Ostrom's governing the commons theory. The reasons why only 18% of buildings switched to a local institution despite higher efficiency are also explored.
By Oleksii Hamaniuk; University of Bonn
Presented by: Oleksii Hamaniuk, University of Bonn
The Determinants of Missed Funding: Predicting the Paradox of Increased Need and Reduced Allocation Abstract This research investigates how local governments overlook competitive funding opportunities within cohesion policies, utilizing machine learning and analyzing data from open calls within the European Next Generation EU funds. The focus is on predicting which local governments may face challenges in utilizing available funding, specifically examining the allocation of funds for Italian childcare services. The results demonstrate that it is possible to make out-of-sample predictions of municipalities that are likely to abstain from invitations, also identifying key determinants. Population-related factors play a pivotal role in predicting inertia, alongside other service-demand-related elements, particularly in regions with limited services. The study emphasizes the importance of local institutional quality and individual attributes of policymakers. The adverse effects on participation resulting from factors that justify fund allocation may place regions with higher investment needs at a competitive disadvantage. Anticipating potential non-participants in calls can aid in achieving policy targets and optimizing the allocation of funds across various local governments.
By Roberta Di Stefano; Sapienza Università di Roma    Giuliano Resce; Università del Molise
Presented by: Giuliano Resce, Università del Molise
Political instability and international trade in the European Union: A network-based approach Abstract In recent times, many countries continue to deal with political instability due to difficulties of improving democratic practices and limiting episodes of violence and terrorism. By using a sample of 27 European Union (EU) countries observed on yearly basis during the period 1999-2021, we empirically analyze how the domestic political instability of a given country can be affected by the degree of trade diversification adjusted for the political instability of the non-EU countries it trades with. We adopt a network-based approach and build a novel geopolitical dependency index and we find that there is a risk of importing political instability along with international trade, by increasing either trade concentration or the imports share from more politically unstable non-EU countries. Given the relevance of the United States and China for the European economic activity, we also test our main hypothesis by adjusting the geopolitical dependency index accordingly. We show a prominent role played by China, compared to the US, for trade and political tension in the EU countries.
By Giovanni Carnazza; Università di Pisa    Paolo Liberati; Università Roma Tre    Agnese Sacchi; Università di Urbino
Presented by: Agnese Sacchi, Università di Urbino
Session 55: CLIMATE CHANGE II October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Laura Rondi, Politecnico di Torino
The Effect of Climate Risk on Sovereign Debt: Empirical Evidences from Developed Economies Abstract In response to the unprecedented scale of climate change, extensive research has been dedicated to investigating its multifaceted impacts across various dimensions. This study contributes to the extensive discourse within the literature by examining the potential correlation between long-term sovereign bond interest rates and climate risk emanating from climate change. Employing panel data encompassing 33 countries spanning the period from 2001 to 2020, sourced from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) databases, our analysis adheres to specific criteria ensuring homogeneity in the economic development of the sampled nations. This ensures reliability by mitigating heterogeneity in the interactions between supply and demand that determine bond prices, given the study's reliance on market-determined prices as indicators of economic agents' expectations. Our analysis reveals a statistically significant negative association between climate change resilience and government debt interest rates. While the effect size is relatively modest, its significance lies in the anticipation of a potentially deepening relationship over the long term, as climate change is projected to exacerbate despite unpredictable trajectories. Consequently, our study confirms the initial hypothesis and aligns with existing literature, indicating that investors factor climate risk into their investment decisions. The research yields crucial policy implications, particularly concerning government spending and financing methodologies. Implementing mitigation policies stands to mitigate adverse physical effects of climate change, resulting in lower borrowing costs. This, in turn, enhances current and future spending capacity, a pivotal element in effective climate change mitigation.
By Carmelo Arena; Università della Calabria    Stefania Basiglio; Università di Bari    Andrea Comandé    Jing Li; University of Bradford    Diego Mazzitelli; Università della Calabria
Presented by: Stefania Basiglio, Università di Bari
Navigating the Nexus: Renewable Energy Consumption and Financial Development in the EU Context Abstract This paper investigates the nexus between renewable energy (RE) consumption and financial development within the European Union (EU), drawing from a wide array of financial indicators, including novel measures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) alongside country-specific metrics for renewable pricing and the OECD Market Based Environmental Policy Stringency Index (EPS). Employing a system GMM estimator over the period 2005-2019 for a panel of 14 EU advanced economies, the empirical findings exhibit a significant positive association with RE consumption, underscoring the pivotal role of robust financial markets in supporting renewable energy demand. Furthermore, lower RE prices and higher environmental stringency also drive increased RE consumption significantly, aligning with conventional inverse demand dynamics and the regulatory push towards sustainability. Finally, the paper estimates the short- and the long- run elasticities of the renewable consumption with respect to the financial variables. These figures are potentially useful for the calibration of theoretical models including renewables and a financial sector.
By Luca Correani; Università della Tuscia    Fabio Di Dio; Sapienza Università di Roma    Patrizio Morganti; Università della Tuscia
Presented by: Patrizio Morganti, Università della Tuscia
Hydro-economic Equilibrium with Climatic Variability in a Subregional Input-Output Framework: The Case of Tuscany Abstract An interregional IO model of a regional economy (Tuscany, IT) extended to water resources is used to provide an economic assessment of water resources overexploitation. A comprehensive representation of the interdependencies between hydrological and productive systems, allows to define a set of endogenous thresholds of water scarcity and the conditions for the hydro-economic equilibrium of the regional economy. Despite only 24% of the annual supply of freshwater is used for production, on average about 172 Mm3 of water are used in condition of scarcity, due to a spatial mismatch between supply and demand. The opportunity cost to reach the absence of overexploitation in all sub-regional areas would be 129 Euro for each m3 of water used in condition of scarcity. Hydro-economic equilibrium would require a decrease of about 10% of the regional output, a value that would be increased to 14% in a climate change scenario.
By Benedetto Rocchi; Università di Firenze    Renato Paniccià; Istituto regionale Programmazione Economica Toscana    Gino Sturla; Università di Firenze
Presented by: Benedetto Rocchi, Università di Firenze
Does carbon capture & storage mitigate carbon premium? Evidence from patents Abstract We study firm-level patenting in Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) technologies and its effect on firms’ stock market performance. Joining patent data with balance-sheet, financial and non-financial company panel data (2010-2022), we use zero-inflated Poisson regressions to study CCS patent activity both at the extensive and at the intensive margin. We find that CCS patents behave consistently with other eco - innovations and respond to the environmental pressure exercised by firm-level CO2 emissions and by country-level environmental regulatory policy. Then, motivated by the recent debate about the existence of a ”carbon risk premium” in the stock market, we investigate how CCS patenting affects firms’ market value and the risk premium requested by investors to high-carbon emitters. We find that CCS patenting is negatively (positively) related to the market-to-book ratio (stock returns), but the signs flip as CO2 emissions and environmental pressure intensify, suggesting that innovation in CCS technologies has a positive impact on high-emission firms, reducing the carbon risk premium.
By Antonio Barchi; Politecnico di Torino    Laura Rondi; Politecnico di Torino
Presented by: Laura Rondi, Politecnico di Torino
Session 56: CRIME & CORRUPTION II October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Tommaso Oliviero, Università di Napoli Federico II
Fighting Crime for Improved Recycling: Evaluating an Anti-Mafia Policy on Source Separation of Waste Abstract It is well documented that organized crime heavily affects the waste management system. This paper focuses on examining the impact of Law 164/1991, one of Italy’s most stringent measures against organized crime. The law, designed to counteract suspected mafia infiltration by mandating the dissolution of city councils, is investigated for its role in reinstating a more efficient waste management system. This involves an increase in selective waste collection for recycling purposes. We exploit the staggered enforcement of Law 164/1991 to show that both the percentage and the per-capita tonnes in selective waste collection, measured for municipalities in Apulia, Calabria, Campania and Sicily, increase sharply starting from the first election after compulsory administration in dissolved municipalities compared to the control group of those never dissolved; the average treatment effect of the anti-mafia policy is measured in a 5 percentage points and 17.5 Kg increase in the percentage and in per-capita tonnes of selective waste collection, respectively. This outcome is influenced by the city council dismissal, as it severs the connections between organized crime and local politicians. The resulting refreshed pool of elected officials, characterized by lower levels of corruption, then implements actions that are unfavorable to organized crime. This leads to a more effective urban separate waste collection in term of lower illegal waste disposal.
By Anna Laura Baraldi; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli    Claudia Cantabene; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli    Alessandro De Iudicibus; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Presented by: Claudia Cantabene, Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
The effects of mafia infiltration on the innovativeness of Italian provinces Abstract The purpose of this analysis is to analyze the relationship between Organized Crime and innovativeness in Italian provinces, observed over the period from 2006 to 2021. The intensity of Mafia activity is measured by processing data on Mafia-related crimes through Principal Component Analysis. The empirical analysis, carried out through the GMM method, shows results that vary significantly between southern provinces, for which a negative effect of the mafia on the number of registered patents is observed, and north-central provinces, where the effect is positive. These results support the theoretical framework that the mafia tends to depress the economy of southern provinces and expand more in north-central provinces with more economic opportunities.
By Vincenzo Sessa; Università di Salerno
Presented by: Vincenzo Sessa, Università di Salerno
EU Cohesion Funds and Firm Productivity: Investigating Mafia Influence Abstract The economic impact of the mafia is multifaceted, affecting various aspects such as money laundering, entrepreneurship, finance, competition, employment, and societal dynamics. Recent literature emphasizes the mafia’s ability to exploit public funding, increasing the disbursement of EU funds, notably benefiting mafia-associated firms. This study examines whether organized crime hinders efforts to stimulate entrepreneurial activity, analyzing the influence of EU funds on firm productivity in Sicily,during the 2007-2020 period. To examine this issue, we consider a sample of approximately 18,000 Sicilian firms that received subsidies from cohesion policies within the framework of two European programming periods, namely 2007-2013 and 2014-2020. After estimating the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of these enterprises, it is compared with the TFP estimated for Sicilian enterprises that did not receive European subsidies during the same periods. Overall, it finds that productivity is higher in high-crime areas, regardless of subsidies. Subsidized firms in low-crime areas exhibit higher productivity, while the opposite is observed in high-crime areas, suggesting a complex relationship between productivity, subsidies, and crime. Subsidized firms in sectors prone to mafia infiltration are more productive in high-crime areas, possibly due to extortion of subsidies from non-infiltrated firms. Conversely, in sectors less susceptible to mafia influence, subsidized firms are less productive in high-crime areas and more productive in low-crime areas, aligning with expectations.
By Alessandro De Iudicibus; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli    Claudia Cantabene; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli    Iacopo Grassi; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Alessandro De Iudicibus, Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Mafia Infiltration and Ownership Dynamics in Italian Companies Amidst Covid-19 Abstract We examine how Covid-19 social restrictions impacted the ownership structure of Italian private companies and probe the extent of mafia infiltration. We create a novel dataset of monthly ownership changes (shareholders' entries, exits, and reshuffles among existing ones), combined with information on government-mandated business closures and a mafia presence index for Italian provinces. In areas with higher pre-existing mafia infiltration levels, business closures increased the share of firms undergoing ownership changes, especially through the replacement of incumbent shareholders by new ones. Our main contribution is to shed light on the mechanisms through which the mafia infiltrates the economy during crises.
By Roberta De Luca; Banca d'Italia    Rosalia Greco; Università Bocconi    Giovanni Immordino; Università di Napoli Federico II    Tommaso Oliviero; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Tommaso Oliviero, Università di Napoli Federico II
Session 57: INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY AND EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES IN ITALY October 25, 2024 10:00 to 11:20 Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Michele Raitano, Sapienza Università di Roma
The effect of Anticipating Performance Requirements in Need-Based Grants: A Natural Experiment Abstract Does anticipating merit requirements for a scholarship help students from disadvan- taged families pursue their university careers? Using a unique reform of the Italian finan- cial aid program, we estimate the impact of need-based grants on student performance in a scenario where students have the option to receive an advance on the scholarship if they earn a certain number of credits. Offering this option systematically increases the number of credits and, as a consequence, the probability of success in confirming the grant, but – as a side effect – it induces students to postpone exams with a larger number of credits, with a reduction in the number of passed ones and in the average grades for a portion of the student distribution.
By Luca Bonacini; Università di Bologna    Giuseppe Pignataro; Università di Bologna    Cristina Specchi; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Giuseppe Pignataro, Università di Bologna
Background wage premia, beyond education: firm sorting and unobserved abilities Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational inequality and differences in pay policies between firms. We explore whether parental background effects in firm sorting contribute to the persistence of income inequality across generations. We initially apply a two-way fixed-effects wage estimation, `a la AKM, to the entire Italian private sector workforce to distinguish firm and worker fixed effects. We then match with individual data obtained from graduates at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, incorporating diverse information on family background and academic career. The evidence shows that even when controlling in detail for formal education, there is still a significant residual premium for family background. By decomposing the wage into its individual and firm level fixed components we show that such premium can be attributed equally to the transmission of unobservable abilities and to the capacity of those from a better family background to find employment firm with better wage policies.
By Luca Bonacini; Università di Bologna    Fabrizio Patriarca; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Edoardo Santoni; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Fabrizio Patriarca, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Enduring insecurity: children’s working careers by parental background Abstract A large strand of the economic literature has investigated the correlation between parental background features and their children economic outcomes when adult, mostly focusing on earnings obtained at middle age. Because of data limits, a limited attention has been paid to the entire working career pattern experienced by individuals differing by parental background. Exploiting a survey-administrative linked dataset for Italy allowing us to observe the long-term dynamics of the working career since the entry in activity, the main aim of this paper is to investigate into the long-term earnings patterns of individuals differing by parental background (proxied by financial distress experienced by children during the adolescence). Following the ‘income risk decomposition’ approach proposed by Nichols (2008) long-term earnings pattern is described by distinguishing ‘persistent’ inequality, upward and downward mobility trends and volatility. Furthermore, we distinguish individuals belonging to different entry career cohorts (i.e. those entered from 1980 to 2009) in order to evaluate whether career patterns have changed over time in Italy. Finally, the role of educational attainment as a mediator of the link between parental background and adult children career pattern is analysed.
By Michele Raitano; Sapienza Università di Roma    Francesca Subioli; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Michele Raitano, Sapienza Università di Roma
Session 58: GENDER HARASSMENT IN THE WORKPLACE October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Elena Cefis, Università di Bergamo
Gender violence at home and gender harassment in the workplace. Patterns and dynamics in the Italian context Abstract Gender violence at home and gender harassment in the workplace. Patterns and dynamics in the Italian context
By Elena Pisanelli; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Elena Pisanelli, Università di Bologna
Amid bureaucratic delays, indifference, and victim-blaming: the case of harassment at the University of Turin Abstract Amid bureaucratic delays, indifference, and victim-blaming: the case of harassment at the University of Turin
By Silvia Pasqua; Università di Torino
Presented by: Silvia Pasqua, Università di Torino
Bystander Issue: Why do We Take The Harassers' Side? Abstract Bystander Issue: Why do We Take The Harassers' Side?
By Caroline Coly; Universitas de Barcelona
Presented by: Caroline Coly, Universitas de Barcelona
Session 59: EUROPEAN COMPETITIVENESS 1: RESHAPING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Antonello Zanfei, Università di Urbino
Nearshoring and Farsharing in Europe within the Global Economy Abstract Has the world economy really entered a phase of de-globalisation or deceleration in globalisation after the great recession of 2008/09? Or, rather, are we experiencing a phase of reorganisation of value chains with a shift from global to more regional configurations? Is the increasingly popular term nearshoring indicative of a significant trend similarly affecting Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Americas on both the sourcing and destination sides of value chains or are there regionally distinctive trends? Taking into account both the source and destination sides of GVCs is essential for envisaging possible strategies and avenues to follow in Europe in line with the concept of open strategic autonomy.
By Filippo Bontadini; LUISS Guido Carli    Valentina Meliciani; LUISS Guido Carli    Maria Savona; LUISS Guido Carli    Ariel Wirkierman; Goldsmiths University of London
Presented by: Valentina Meliciani, LUISS Guido Carli
How fragile are European GVCs? The role of functional diversification and implications for industrial policy Abstract This paper examines the relationship between functional diversification and foreign input reliance (FIR) in European countries, with a focus on manufacturing sectors. We propose that greater functional diversification is a key strategy to soften dependency on foreign inputs, thereby mitigating the risks associated with Global Value Chain (GVC) disruptions. We elaborate on recently developed indicators for GVC exposure based on international gross trade flows and test their association with a novel measure of functional diversification, proxied with data on Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) across value chain activities. Our findings reveal that functional diversification is negatively associated with FIR, particularly from extra-EU28 sources, indicating that European countries can reduce exposure to GVC disruptions by diversifying value-adding functions. However, this relationship is also found with reference to the intra-EU FIR component, suggesting that functional diversification strategies undertaken at the level of individual member states may end up weakening European trade integration. We conclude that the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy framework should carefully consider coordinated industrial strategies to strengthen the EU’s capacity to navigate GVC disruptions without undermining intra-EU trade ties.
By Andrea Coveri; Università di Urbino    Raffaele Giammetti; Università di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale    Antonello Zanfei; Università di Urbino
Presented by: Andrea Coveri, Università di Urbino
Digital transformation and the regionalization of Global Value Chains in the European industries Abstract In recent years, a debate on the potential effects of digitalization on trade dynamics has emerged (Antras, 2020; Brun et al., 2019). The diffusion of new digital technologies directly affects firms’ and industries’ dynamics through three main drivers of change: digitalization of processes, automation of labor, and coordination through platforms (Eurofound 2018). The combination of the three phenomena affects firm and industry dynamics, increasing disintermediation and leaving more room for a larger role of service firms in manufacturing, i.e., servitization, due to the diffusion of platforms. Moreover, the increasing diffusion of automation technologies and the digitalization of processes allow for flexible production within firms and distributed production across countries and regions.
By Anna Giunta; Università Roma Tre    Enrico Marvasi; Università Roma Tre    Marco Sforza; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Marco Sforza, Università Roma Tre
Session 60: CLIMATE CHANGE, VIOLENT CONFLICTS AND WELFARE: A MULTI-SCALE INVESTIGATION OF CAUSAL PATHWAYS IN DIFFERENT INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXTS October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Raul Caruso, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Agrifood as a Pathway Linking Climate Change to Conflict: A Systematic Review of the Literature  Abstract This study conducts a systematic literature review using the PRISMA framework (135 peer-reviewed articles finally included for the analysis) to explore the relationship between climate change and conflict, with a specific focus on the agrifood system. The study highlights resource scarcity, economic stress, displacement and migration, and governance weaknesses as primary conduits through which climate change catalyzes conflict. Findings reveal that alterations in precipitation and extreme weather events precipitate resource competition, exacerbating conflict risks. Climate-induced economic disruptions further strain livelihoods, amplifying conflict potential. Displacement due to resource competition and economic distress places additional pressures on resources in host communities, igniting tensions. It emphasizes the importance of longitudinal data to grasp the long-term effects of climate variability on conflict, suggesting an integrated effort among climatologists, political scientists, economists, and sociologists. The findings stress the need for policies enhancing adaptive capacities and conflict-sensitive resource management to mitigate the risks posed by climate-induced conflicts.
By Anna Balestra; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Sara Balestri; Università di Perugia    Raul Caruso; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Tulia Gattone; Università di Firenze    Donato Romano; Università di Firenze    Luca Tiberti; Università di Firenze
Presented by: Donato Romano, Università di Firenze
Can Economic Policy Directly Affect Peace? Abstract This paper contributes to the empirical analysis of social peace, specifically aiming to assess the suitability of an economic policy instrument for the maintenance of social peace. The contention advanced in this paper is that identifying the ratio of public education investment to military expenditure (hereafter referred to as Edumilex) serves as a pertinent instrument for fostering peaceful economic policies. To empirically evaluate this instrument, we employ a target variable serving as a measure of internal peace, structured as a concise metric of positive peace based on four pillars: (i) Health; (ii) Standard of living; (iii) Quality of institutions; (iv) Spread of violence. More precisely, we empirically estimate the impact of Edumilex on social peace, utilizing a panel comprising 85 countries spanning the years from 1990 to 2020. We utilize an Instrumental Variable approach. In particular, in the baseline estimation we employ an IV/GMM estimator. The robust and positive relationship identified in our analysis suggests the viability of Edumilex as an instrument of economic policy. This proposition constitutes a noteworthy innovation since governments commonly perceive education and military spending as distinct policy domains. However, in the light of this work, such a perspective appears flawed, as these factors both exert influence on the levels of peace within a society.
By Anna Balestra; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Raul Caruso; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Raul Caruso, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Land, institutional settings and communal conflicts: exploring regional patterns Abstract This paper investigates how institutional settings influence communal violence by shaping land rights, collective action opportunities, and local governance. Drawing on Agrawal and Ostrom (2001), we explore how factors such as land-related rights, decentralization, and egalitarian institutions impact the occurrence of communal conflicts. Utilizing UCDP-GED data, we construct a country-year panel dataset covering Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern/South-Eastern Asia from 1992 to 2021. Institutional variables are sourced from V-Dem (v.9) and the Land Mark initiative, supplemented by controls for land use, climate conditions, and socio-economic factors. Preliminary findings indicate that changes in land use significantly influence communal violence, likely by exacerbating deprivation or creating competition for common resources. Improved institutional quality, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, substantially reduces the likelihood of communal conflicts. Formal property rights and the enforceability of laws, regardless of inclusiveness, emerge as crucial factors in mitigating communal violence, surpassing the influence of power dynamics among social groups.
By Sara Balestri; Università di Perugia    Raul Caruso; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Sara Balestri, Università di Perugia
The Unintended Effects of Crisis Response on Female Genital Cutting: Evidence from Nigeria's Response to Boko Haram Abstract -While developing countries are increasingly affected by conflicts, the impact of these conflicts on development outcomes remains ambiguous. This paper examines the short- and long-term effects of conflict exposure on completed fertility in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries. Our identification strategy exploits the variation in year-by-year armed conflict exposure among women who have completed their fertility. We find that adolescence, rather than adulthood, is the age at which conflicts affect women’s completed fertility. When exploring potential factors mediating the impact of conflict exposure during adolescence on women’s completed fertility, we find that the age at first marriage, as well as the age at first birth, are the factors contributing to the observed effect.
By Sylvain Dessy; University of Laval    Horace Mahugnon Akim Gninafon; University of Laval    Luca Tiberti; Università di Firenze    Marco Tiberti; World Bank
Presented by: Luca Tiberti, Università di Firenze
Session 61: JOB SECURITY AND WAGE INEQUALITY IN ITALY October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Valeria Cirillo, Università di Bari
Does Temporary Employment Undermine the Quality of Permanent Jobs? Abstract Screening and core-periphery theories claim that temporary employment does not undermine the quality of permanent jobs. In contrast, organizational approaches suggest that firms use temporary contracts to pursue low-road employment, involving the creation of low-quality jobs also for permanent employees. We test these predictions by matching data at the occupation, worker and firm level from the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). Job quality is measured through occupation-specific factors capturing self-realisation, recognition and social support. Results show that a larger use of temporary employees is associated with permanent jobs of lower quality. Moreover, in firms using more temporary workers the jobs of permanent employees are more routinized and less complex, receive less training and involve less teamwork. Therefore, in line with the low-road employment hypothesis, where temporary work is most used, the low quality of permanent positions is driven by work arrangements that economize on individual skills. Managerial and policy implications are discussed.
By Chiara Pollio; Università di Ferrara    Fabio Landini; Università di Parma    Elena Prodi; Università di Macerata    Alessandro Arrighetti; Università di Parma
Presented by: Fabio Landini, Università di Parma
Wage inequality in Italy Abstract The increase in disparities among wage earners has been a relevant factor in growing income inequality. The paper explores the case of Italy using a new ISTAT dataset combining four different sources of information on individual workers and firms over the period 2014-2021. Wage inequalities within industries, within regions and among workers with different occupations and labour contracts are investigated, documenting recent patterns and testing the relationships with structural factors, capital-labour relations, labour characteristics. The results shade new light on the specific drivers of increasing inequality for different subgroups of Italian employees.
By Laura Bisio; ISTAT    Valeria Cirillo; Università di Bari    Matteo Lucchese; ISTAT    Mario Pianta; Scuola Normale Superiore
Presented by: Laura Bisio, ISTAT
Valeria Cirillo, Università di Bari
Matteo Lucchese, ISTAT
Mario Pianta, Scuola Normale Superiore
Stuck. Thoughts of the degree of persistence of absolute poverty in Italy Abstract Stuck. Thoughts of the degree of persistence of absolute poverty in Italy
By Massimo Aprea; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Massimo Aprea, Sapienza Università di Roma
Session 62: AGENT-BASED MODELS FOR POLICY MAKING October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Marco Valente, Università dell'Aquila
Inequality-constrained monetary policy in a financialized economy Abstract We study how income inequality affects monetary policy through the inequality-household debt channel. We design a minimal macro Agent-Based model that replicates several stylized facts, including two novel ones: falling aggregate saving rate and decreasing bankruptcies during the household’s debt boom phase. When inequality meets financial liberalization, a leaning against-the-wind strategy can preserve financial stability at the cost of high unemployment, whereas an accommodative strategy, i.e. lowering the policy rate, can dampen the fall of aggregate demand at the cost of larger leverage. We conclude that inequality may constrain the central bank, even when it is not explicitly targeted.
By Luca Eduardo Fierro; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis    Federico Giri; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Alberto Russo; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Alberto Russo, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Monetary policy and personal income inequality: an heterogenous agents’ approach Abstract In this paper, we study the relationship between monetary policy and personal income inequality. By developing an Agent Based – Stock Flow Consistent model, we show that the sign and the magnitude of contractionary monetary policy effects depend on the heterogeneity characterizing income sources across the population, the composition of households wealth and portfolio preferences, the value of the labor share and unemployment benefits. The monetary policy can affect inequality through four main transmissions channels: saving remuneration, assets price, aggregate demand and cost-push channels. We outline five main results: i) the impact of monetary policy on income inequality is non-linear and is a function of the degree of symmetry in the distribution of firms and bank shares, markup and unemployment benefits; ii) The magnitude of the impact is not independent of the inequality measure considered. The inter-decile ratio is much more sensitive to monetary policies and their impact is described by a U-shaped function of the initial inequality in the distribution of corporate shares, and it is a concave function of the initial inequality in the distribution of bank shares. Conversely, the impact on Gini and Generalized Entropy indexes is a convex function of the initial inequality in the distribution of corporate shares, while it is a concave function of the initial inequality in the distribution of bank shares; iii) the short-run effects on wealth inequality due to capital gains/losses (CGL) on long-term bonds are positively correlated with the degree of heterogeneity in the portfolio preferences of households. In the long-run, such effect vanishes. The short-run effect is null in the case of zero heterogeneity; iv) If the monetary shocks have an asymmetric impact on portfolio decisions, the monetary policy can have a long-lasting impact on wealth inequality through the CGLs in the stock market. In the presence of symmetric shocks, CGLs in the stock market have no effect, neither in the short nor in the long term. v) the higher the labor share, the greater the impact of monetary policy on inequality. Finally, we adopt the income factor decomposition to disentangle how income heterogeneity affect the transmission channels of monetary policies.
By Lorenzo Di Domenico; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Andrea Boitani; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Giorgio Ricchiuti; Università di Firenze
Presented by: Lorenzo Di Domenico, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
When the Brightest Are Not the Best Abstract In many research systems hiring decisions are increasingly relying on the evaluation of research quality defined by bibliometric indicators computed on the publication record of candidates. The paper discusses the consequences of competitive selections based on bibliometric indicators that we assume to be correlated to, but not coinciding with, the true quality of researchers. We build a simple agent-based model representing a hypothetic research institu- tion tasked with regularly hiring new recruits to replace retiring members. We adopt plausible distributions for the unobservable research quality of candidates and their publicly available bibliometric indicators, and test the results under different assump- tions, primarily the relevance of indicators in the hiring procedure. We show that using exceedingly selective criteria operating on observable proxy indicators of research quality may reduce the actual expected research quality of new hires.
By Marco Valente; Università dell'Aquila
Presented by: Marco Valente, Università dell'Aquila
Session 63: PNRR: AVANZAMENTI E POSSIBILI EFFETTI (TAVOLA ROTONDA) October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)
Session Chair: Gianfranco Viesti, Università di Bari
Effetti macroeconomici del PNRR: impatti sul PIL e sul potenziale Abstract L’avanzamento del Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (cfr Audizione UPB sul PSB 2025 29 par 2 4 1
By Libero Monteforte; Ufficio parlamentare di bilancio
Presented by: Libero Monteforte, Ufficio parlamentare di bilancio
Lo stato di attuazione del PNRR: risorse assegnate e gare bandite Abstract Lo stato di attuazione del PNRR: risorse assegnate e gare bandite
By Alfredo Bardozzetti; Banca d'Italia    Anna Laura Mancini; Banca d'Italia
Presented by: Alfredo Bardozzetti, Banca d'Italia
Anna Laura Mancini, Banca d'Italia
Il PNRR e il mercato dei lavori pubblici Abstract Il PNRR e il mercato dei lavori pubblici
By Giuseppe Francesco Gori; IRPET    Patrizia Lattarulo; IRPET
Presented by: Giuseppe Francesco Gori, IRPET
Session 64: INEQUALITY, TAXATION AND TAX EVASION October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Demetrio Guzzardi, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Inheritance Taxation in a Global Perspective Abstract This paper introduces a novel global collection of data on estate, inheritance, and gift (EIG) taxes, across several decades and over 160 countries. The data provide a comprehensive collection of harmonized EIG tax rates, exemptions, schedules, and revenues. We document an overall trend towards decreasing EIG taxation. Until the 1980s, the top marginal tax rate averaged at about 30 percent compared to below 10 percent in 2019. However, the data also suggest substantial heterogeneity in EIG taxation dynamics. We identify three main clusters: the group of countries which has reduced top rates, increased, or repealed the tax altogether. Likewise, countries can be grouped according to whether they experienced a reduction or an increase in EIG tax revenue over the past four decades. Looking at the structure of the tax schedule, we show that some countries rely on progressively increasing tax brackets while others levy a flat rate. Over time, we document a substantial reduction in the number of tax brackets. We then illustrate an application of our data by analyzing the effect of changes in top marginal tax rates on EIG tax rev- enue and wealth concentration. We estimate a 4% increase in EIG tax revenue for every 1% increase in the top marginal tax rate and a 7% increase in the top 1% wealth share following a 10 percentage point drop in the top tax rate.
By Twisha Asher; CUNY Graduate Center    Luca Giangregorio; Università Roma Tre    Salvatore Morelli; Università Roma Tre    Manuel Schechtl; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill    Francesca Subioli; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Salvatore Morelli, Università Roma Tre
The cost of regressivity: insights from an optimal taxation framework with heterogeneous returns Abstract In this work, we build on estimates on income inequality and tax regressivity in Italy by Guzzardi et al. (2023) to improve the distribution of capital income taking into account heterogeneity of returns, in addition to assessing the redistributive and revenue potential of different capital taxation schemes (income and wealth). We contribute to the literature in two main directions. First, we embed estimated heterogeneous rates of return along the wealth distribution to revise the capital income distribution in Italy. Preliminary findings reveal the existence of a monotonically increasing relationship between (financial and net) wealth and returns in Italy, akin to observations in Norway and Sweden (Fagereng et al., 2020; Bach et al., 2020), leading to an increase of the Gini index on capital income by 2 basis points and a higher share accruing to the top 1%. Second, we calibrate the optimal income taxation model proposed by Saez and Stantcheva (2018) on Italian income distribution data, exploiting its flexibility to heterogeneity in rates of return on personal capital, to assess the revenue and equity potential of comprehensive and dual income taxation schemes as compared to wealth taxation. If societal preferences reflect judgments of fairness on the distribution of both wealth and returns, the optimal marginal tax schedule on capital income is progressive and steeper on the top 10%, ranging between 55% and 65% on top income levels. An alternative scenario wherein a wealth tax replaces the capital income tax beyond specific wealth thresholds leads as well to the mitigation of the regressive tendencies of the Italian tax system on the top of the distribution.
By Matteo Dalle Luche; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Demetrio Guzzardi; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Elisa Palagi; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Andrea Roventini; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Alessandro Santoro; Università di Milano-Bicocca
Presented by: Demetrio Guzzardi, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Is Income Tax Discrimination Socially Optimal? Evidence from Italy Abstract In many tax systems the taxation of income reported by dependent workers differs from that of income reported by independent ones, i.e. taxpayers who obtain their income from self-employment or from sole proprietorships. This leads to income tax discrimination, i.e. different treatment of two taxpayers obtaining the same income but from different sources. However, the sign that this discrimination should take is unclear. The main difference between dependent and independent workers is that the latter evade their income to a much larger extent. On equity grounds, this suggests that independent workers should be taxed with higher rates to offset higher evasion. On efficiency grounds, however, the fact that indepedent workers have more opportunities to evade leads to lower rates. In this paper, using Italian data, we address the following research question: is income tax discrimination between dependent and independent workers socially optimal when both equity and efficiency principles are taken into account? To address this issue we adapt the framework of the optimal income taxation literature. We obtain the following results (...)
By Bruno Bosco; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Fausto Cavalli; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Alessandro Santoro; Università di Milano-Bicocca
Presented by: Alessandro Santoro, Università di Milano-Bicocca
Global Offshore Wealth, 2001-2021 Abstract This paper constructs homogeneous time series of global household offshore wealth covering the 2001–2021 period, during which major international efforts were implemented to curb offshore tax evasion. We find that (i) global offshore wealth remained broadly stable a fraction of global GDP, the equivalent of around 10% of world GDP, (ii) the location of offshore wealth changed markedly, with a decline in the share held in Switzerland and rise of Asian havens (iii) a growing fraction comes from developing countries.
By Souleymane Faye; EU Tax Observatory    Sarah Godar; EU Tax Observatory and DIW Berlin    Gabriel Zucman; University of California, Berkeley
Presented by: Sarah Godar, EU Tax Observatory and DIW Berlin
Session 65: INDUSTRIAL AND DEVELOPMENT POLICIES FOR NEXT EUROPE (with AENL - Associazione degli Economisti di Lingua Neolatina) October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Gioacchino Garofoli, Università dell'Insubria
NGEU e PNRR: opportunità per una politica industriale di sviluppo in Europa. Il ruolo degli investimenti e di nuova occupazione di qualità Abstract Le difficoltà dell’economia europea sono ampiamente aumentate dopo le tre crisi che si sono susseguite a partire dal 2008, accentuando ulteriormente i fattori di crisi che avevano portato alla crisi del 2007-2008 (Garofoli, 2017). I tre fattori cruciali sono: il crollo della quota di reddito distribuita al lavoro sin dagli anni Ottanta, la caduta degli investimenti, i bassi tassi di occupazione e i bassi salari in molti paesi europei (accompagnati dall’esplosione del «lavoro povero»).Tutto ciò ha determinato una insufficiente domanda aggregata interna in Europa che è stata, invece, erroneamente affrontata con una strategia complessiva di politica economica indirizzata all’austerity (cfr. Garofoli, 2017; Garofoli, Holland, 2017; Valli, 2017; Cappellin et al., 2020). Il paper affronta la questione della fragilità delle filiere produttive internazionali, connesse al sistema di liberalizzazione degli scambi ai paesi industriali emergenti (WTO) e alla conseguente processo di globalizzazione (e conseguente caduta dell’occupazione industriale in Europa) e sostiene l’obiettivo dell’autonomia strategica dell’economia dell’Unione europea. Il paper propone una strategia europea di ristrutturazione industriale indirizzata prevalentemente alla domanda interna europea e alla creazione di buona occupazione, per facilitare la costruzione di una coerenza della politica industriale sia sul lato della domanda che dell’offerta, con un ruolo cruciale della programmazione economica.
By Gioacchino Garofoli; Università dell'Insubria
Presented by: Gioacchino Garofoli, Università dell'Insubria
Pour une priorité à la production responsable et à la coopération équitable Abstract Attendu que le fonctionnement économique passé n’a pas permis d’éradiquer la rareté et le sous-développement, que la croissance des valeurs marchandes a entraîné souvent et n’a jamais fait disparaître de grandes inégalités entre les régions, entre les groupes sociaux au sein des pays et pire encore, entre les pays riches et les pays pauvres, et que subsiste une pauvreté absolue massive avec 10% de la population mondiale qui souffre de la faim et 40% d’une alimentation insuffisante tandis que les processus de production pour cette croissance ont contribué massivement à dégrader la qualité de l’environnement, à réduire la biodiversité et à accélérer le réchauffement climatique, Il est urgent que les économistes fassent des propositions de réformes profondes de la manière de faire fonctionner les activités économiques, pour stopper la marche à l’abîme et nous mettre sur la voie d’un réel progrès de l’humanité. L’injonction que la société fait aux économistes aujourd’hui est ainsi la suivante. Veuillez trouver un mode d’organisation économique, politique et sociale, aux échelons national, régional, international, qui maintienne durablement la Terre Habitable, tout en répondant aux besoins matériels et immatériels de l’humanité toute entière, les besoins qu’il faut nécessairement satisfaire pour que tout le monde puisse mener une vie digne. Mon intervention propose quelques indications qui paraissent essentielles à prendre en compte pour baliser les recherches ouvrant la voie à l’organisation d’une réponse pertinente à cette injonction.
By Marc Humbert; Université de Rennes
Presented by: Marc Humbert, Université de Rennes
Por una política económica de progreso (in collegamento da remoto) Abstract Las reglas económicas que se han escrito –reglas, no leyes; importante esta distinción– no son necesariamente las tablas de Moisés. Es decir: están sujetas a cambios, en función de los entornos en los que dichas reglas se aplican. Esas reorientaciones de unos preceptos pretendidamente inamovibles, considerados como leyes perpetuas, tuvieron que variarse a tenor de los acontecimientos. Por ejemplo: las reglas rígidas del sistema monetario del patrón oro –equilibrio presupuestario a ultranza, no intervención pública en la economía, limitaciones a las emisiones monetarias, etc.– se acabaron por dinamitar a raíz de la Gran Depresión. La causa: no servían en una coyuntura deflacionaria y con desplome de la demanda agregada. J. Bradford DeLong, secretario del Tesoro de Estados Unidos durante el mandato del presidente Bill Clinton, un historiador y economista solvente, lo ha explicado con claridad en su reciente libro (Camino a la utopía, Deusto, Barcelona, 2023): esa gran crisis del capitalismo obligó a repensar las herramientas consideradas inmutables, y a utilizar otros resortes, otras palancas, para resolver los graves problemas –los más relevantes, insistimos, la desocupación y la deflación–.
By Carles Manera; Universitat de les Illes Balears    Jose Perez-Montiel; Universitat de les Illes Balears
Presented by: Carles Manera, Universitat de les Illes Balears
EU Response to Economic shocks, Indebtedness and Financialisation – the case of Ireland Abstract EU Response to Economic shocks, Indebtedness and Financialisation – the case of Ireland
By Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan; University of Limerick
Presented by: Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan, University of Limerick
Session 66: CLIMATE CHANGE III October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Tommaso Rughi, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Employment effects of temperature shocks in Italy and the role of occupational heat stress Abstract We assess the employment impact of temperature-shocks in Italy by taking into consideration the role of occupational heat stress. Combining labor-market survey data with ground-station gridded weather information, we run non-linear panel fixed-effects regression models over 2011-2019 and estimate around half percentage-point contraction in provinces’ employment rates for a two Celsius degrees shock in average quarterly temperatures. This effect doubles in magnitude for provinces in coastal and southern climatic zones. By exploiting narrowly-defined 4-digit occupation survey information, we show that our results are significantly driven by individuals previously-employed in occupations relatively more exposed to extreme temperatures. This subset of non-employed significantly accrues to the private service sector and is equally split between unemployment and inactivity. Our estimates are robust to specifications controlling for key endogenous variables.
By Marco Biagetti; INAPP    Valerio Intraligi; INAPP
Presented by: Marco Biagetti, INAPP
Flying towards Sustainability? Investigating the Attitude-Behaviour Gap among Italian Air Travellers Abstract Air transport, a major contributor to carbon emissions, faces escalating environmental scrutiny both in Europe and beyond. This study focuses on investigating the attitude-behaviour gap regarding individual flying activity and environmental concern among Italian air travellers. An original survey collected data on demographics, flying activity, awareness, and policy support from a representative sample of 1004 Italian adults; then, regression models analysed factors influencing flight frequency and distance travelled. Findings reveal significant correlations between policy support and reduced flying, highlighting policy attitudes' impact on behaviour. However, general environmental concern did not consistently affect travel decisions, underscoring the persistent attitude-behaviour gap already described in the literature. Further analysis differentiated motivations for flying, observing distinct behaviours between work-related and leisure travel. While environmentally aware individuals reduced air travel for work, policy supporters showed reluctance for vacation flights. These results emphasize the need for comprehensive policies addressing both supply and demand sides of aviation emissions, such as combining market-based and regulatory interventions alongside education, information and the promotion of Sustainable Alternative Fuels (SAFs). Overall, the study analyses a pivotal environmental issue through the analysis of a novel sample and contributes to understanding individual behaviours and informing policy strategies to mitigate aviation's environmental impact.
By Riccardo Colantuono; IUSS Pavia e Università di Siena    Alessandro Montanaro; Università di Ferrara    Massimiliano Mazzanti; Università di Ferrara & SEEDS'    Susanna Mancinelli; Università di Ferrara    Emilio Visintin; Università di Ferrara
Presented by: Riccardo Colantuono, IUSS Pavia e Università di Siena
Towards a net-zero economy: the role of job skills heterogeneity in the European Union Abstract This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the European Union labor market and the green skills requirements along the transition towards a net-zero economy. Our study employs a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that is enhanced to capture key labor market features, including: (i) skilled and unskilled workers; (ii) green and traditional skills employable in two different productive sectors, i.e., clean and dirty; (iii) green and conventional vocational education programs; (iv) clean technology adoption from pollutant firms. This model enables the analysis of the labor market implication and skills requirements of a gradual increase in the emission tax. Three main findings emerge from our study. First, skills heterogeneity and the ability of unskilled workers to invest in education generate mild positive long-run effects on consumption, output, and hours. Second, an increase in green education programs (about 7.54\% ) is essential for acquiring the necessary skills to meet climate goals. Third, skills heterogeneity, green educational programs, and relative employment frictions are accompanied by gradual gains in dirty output, investment, and labor, along the transition. In conclusion, abstracting from job skills and education heterogeneity in this framework entails that the same policy has misleading effects, revealing the importance of these channels for a complete analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of the green transition.
By Marina Albanese; Università di Napoli Federico II    Francesco Busato; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Gianluigi Cisco; Università di Napoli Parthenope
Presented by: Gianluigi Cisco, Università di Napoli Parthenope
Jobs in transition between climate and technical change: occupational exposure in the US labour markets Abstract This paper addresses the potential labour markets impacts due to the presence of labour-saving green technologies in US. We construct a direct measure of occupational exposure to climate change innovations containing labour saving heuristics, able to connect the technology and labour market domains in a direct way, constructed mobilizing natural language techniques and dependency parsing algorithms. Firstly we identified the climate mitigation/adaptation patents characterized by Labour Saving Heuristics (LSH) form USPTO. Afterward we map the relevant executed functions into the O*Net dictionary of occupations, connecting patents texts and human tasks and then moving from tasks to occupation and finally we associated employment and salary data to those occupation. Finally, we regress our measure of exposure on employment and wage growth over our time period. According to our results, the higher the level of exposure to LSH, the lower wage growth, while employment growth follows a non monotonic pattern, mostly driven by high exposed occupations to LSH. The overall empirical exercise reveals the labour-shedding effect incorporated into our measure and cast some doubts on the purported positive or neutral effects of the transitions. Finally, our paper, together with contributing to the literature on the twin transition, offers a new innovative way to directly connect the transitions and their unfolding into labour markets. In this respect, is a replicable measure also for European and non western countries.
By Tommaso Rughi; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Jacopo Staccioli; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Maria Enrica Virgillito; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Presented by: Tommaso Rughi, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Session 67: EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS I October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Gianluca Grilli, Università di Trento
Curbing Energy Consumption through Voluntary Quotas: Experimental Evidence Abstract This paper explores the potential of voluntary consumption quotas as a strat- egy to address resource supply shortages. The results of an incentivized online experiment are presented in which a Nash demand game was used to model an energy consumption problem. Participants had the option to join an en- ergy conservation programme by accepting a consumption quota. Those who accepted the quota traded off their maximum demand for energy in exchange for the certainty that their demand would be met, while those who rejected the quota could demand and possibly earn more but risked suffering from a power outage, in which case they received nothing. Three different quota schemes are examined, and their policy implications are discussed. Our findings suggest that voluntary quotas may lead to a significant decrease in overall demand and contribute to enhancing consumption security.
By Nicola Campigotto; Università di Trento    Marco Catola; Maastricht University    Simone D'Alessandro; Università di Pisa    Pietro Guarnieri; Università di Pisa    Lorenzo Spadoni; Università di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale
Presented by: Marco Catola, Maastricht University
Inequalities under Ambiguity Abstract This paper explores the impact of risk and ambiguity on wealth redistribution, using an experimental dictator game. The findings show that wealth redistribution significantly declined in line with increased perceived risk, suggesting that heightened risk and ambiguity may reduce altruistic behavior. Gender differences in risk aversion were observed under conditions of risk (characterized by well-defined probability), but vanished under conditions of ambiguity. The study highlights the importance of risk perception in shaping social preferences and the potential use of ambiguity as a moral rationale to avoid engagement in pro-social behaviors and wealth redistribution.
By Rocco Caferra; Università di Roma Unitelma Sapienza    Andrea Morone; Università di Bari    Piergiuseppe Morone; Università di Roma Unitelma Sapienza
Presented by: Rocco Caferra, Università di Roma Unitelma Sapienza
What Motivates Energy Renovation? The Case of Cost-Disruption Trade-Offs Abstract Disruption and mess associated with energy efficiency retrofits is one aspect that is rarely considered in studies investigating households' preferences for energy renovations. Using a choice experiment, we estimate a price for residential retrofit disruption, finding it represents a substantial proportion of associated energy cost savings among some households. There is considerable variance in willingness to pay for both energy cost savings and disruption avoidance, consistent with experience of many households investing in energy retrofits but also of government retrofit schemes falling far short of policy targets. Just 1-in-4 households are actively receptive to retrofit policy supports, and disruption posing a significant barrier to undertaking energy retrofits, means both contribute to the slow progress against public policy targets to improve residential energy efficiency.
By John Curtis; Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)    Gianluca Grilli; Università di Trento    Muireann Lynch; Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
Presented by: Gianluca Grilli, Università di Trento
Session 68: FIRMS & TECHNOLOGY October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Loreta Calzaretta, Università di Salerno
Internet Usage and the Shadow Economy: A Panel Threshold Regression Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between Internet usage and shadow economy through the panel threshold effects estimation technique introduced by Hansen. A panel threshold regression model is applied to test the threshold effect of Internet usage on shadow economy, among 141 countries, from 1996 – 2015. The empirical results strongly indicate that two-threshold effect exists; therefore, the regression is divided into three regimes. The negative impact of Internet usage on shadow economy is statistically significant in each of three regimes, but the negative effect is decreasing as the percentage of Internet users increases, thus suggesting a non- linear relationship. Also, the impact of the main determinants of the shadow economy is affected by the percentage of Internet users. The results have an important implication: to sharp the size of the shadow economy through supporting the development of Information and Communication Technologies Industry, the government policies have to take into account the variation of the impact of the other main determinants of the shadow economy, due to a such development
By Salvatore Ciucci; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Presented by: Salvatore Ciucci, Università degli studi della Campania
Companies with at least 10 Employees Selling Online across the Italian Regions Abstract The following article analyzes Italian companies with more than 10 employees that use online sales tools. The data used were acquired from the ISTAT-BES database. The article first presents a static analysis of the data aimed at framing the phenomenon in the context of Italian regional disparities. Subsequently, a clustering with k-Means algorithm is proposed by comparing the Silhouette coefficient and the Elbow method. The investigation of the innovative and technological determinants of the observed variable is carried out through the application of a panel econometric model. Finally, different machine learning algorithms for prediction are compared. The results are critically discussed with economic policy suggestions.
By Carlo Drago; Università Cusano    Massimo Arnone; Università di Catania    Angelo Leogrande; LUM Enterprise S.r.l.
Presented by: Carlo Drago, Università Cusano
Regimes of platformization: evidence from Italian firms in the service sector Abstract Over the last decade, digital platforms have become the prominent business model in the economy. Through their matchmaking, data-intensive, and innovative processes, they have transformed almost every industrial sector, bringing about fundamental changes to the economy and to business operations (Parker, Van Alstyne, and Choudary, 2016; Kenney and Zysman, 2016; Srnicek, 2017), and attract users by positive network effects (McIntyre and Srinivasan, 2017; Rochet and Tirole, 2003). For these reasons, platforms accrue significant power over other users in their ecosystem, and absorb ever-growing portions of market share in their respective industries. Which kind of adjustments must firms adopt to manage their relationship with platforms, and which are the consequences of these behaviors induced by the platform on firm performance? Because of network effects and growing platform dominance, firms are increasingly compelled to have a platform presence. Thus, they develop behaviors in order to adapt to the platform and gain bargaining power towards it. Practices include, but are not limited to, 1) developing products that require costly effort to produce, 2) paying for advertisement and privileged positions in interfaces, thus investing in intangibles within and outside the platform (Zhu and Liu, 2018; Balsiger et al., 2023), or diversifying sales channels by 3) using multiple platforms, 4) a firm’s own website or 5) a brick-and-mortar front (Belleflamme and Peitz, 2019; Han, Cai and Gu, 2023; Li and Wang, 2021). These behaviors are in part determined by firm and industry characteristics (Ciarli et al., 2021) such as size (Li and Agarwal 2017), age (Coad, 2018), skills (Cirillo et al., 2021), and past performance (Radicic and Petković, 2023), which can influence the propensity the firm has towards investment and growth, risk-taking and uncertainty. Together, practices and firm characteristics contribute to shape the performance that firms have on the platform. Platforms can contribute to labor productivity and turnover growth (Bailin-Rivares et al., 2019). Yet, there is evidence that they can impact firms negatively in terms of heightened uncertainty, particularly for those firms that become dependent on the platform for large shares of their business (Cutolo and Kenney, 2021). The present article argues that performance outcomes of the platform-firm relationship depend not only from the behavior of the platform, by its presence alone or the choice of its adoption on the part of the firm. They rather depend by the complex combination of behaviors that firms adopt on the platform, that in turn are linked to their extant characteristics. The combination of firm platform practices and firm underlying characteristics defines different regimes of platformization, under which firms have different experiences on the platform, leading towards heterogenous performance outcomes. These outcomes can then be estimated and contribute to the general understanding of the platform-firm relationship. The analysis is based on the Digital Platform Survey (DPS) carried out by the Italian Institute for the Analysis of Public Policy (INAPP). The DPS covers three sectors: Transportation, Restaurants, and Hospitality. Being those where the penetration of platforms has been relatively more intense, the present analysis is limited to the latter two. The DPS has three main strengths. First, a large sample size ensures representativeness also for small and micro firms, often under-represented in surveys despite being so widespread in the Italian economy. Second, the DPS provides a unique set of information on firm digitalization, including length of the platform relationship, number (and name) of platforms used, use of websites, and multiple platform practices. Third, a large amount of information on firm characteristics – e.g. size, age, location, performance, investments, job quality indicators and labor costs – can be taken into account when analyzing the impact of platforms on firm performance and behavior. The empirical strategy is organized as follows. First, five different regimes of platformization are identified relying on cluster analysis. Clustering variables are related to firms’ platform behavior, identifying patterns out of the aforementioned practices firms have to gain bargaining power. Brick-and-mortar stores, multichanneling, multihoming are examples of channel diversification; in-platform investment, and the level of intangible investments, are examples of costly effort to generate hard-to-copy, high-margin products/services, or of marketing spending. Second, the resulting clusters are further qualified according to key firm- and industry-level characteristics. These are 1) size, associated with more productive and complex behaviors (Costa et al., 2023; Schumpeter, 1942); 2) age, which plays a role in experience and acquired business/financial connections and capabilities (Coad, 2010), 3) platform experience, measured as years spent on the platform; 4) share of open-ended contracts in the firm, to proxy for its reliance on experienced workforce (Pianta & Reljic, 2022; Nelson & Winter, 1982) 5) industrial sub-sector measured at 5-digit ATECO code. Third, the performance of companies and workers belonging to each regime, measured in terms of 1) log yearly turnover, 2) turnover rate of change, 3) turnover-per-employee as proxy for labor productivity, 4) productivity rate of change, 5) employment change, and 6) the ratio of non-standard contracts to open-ended contracts, is analyzed compared with that of companies not selling their goods/services on platform markets. This is done through a baseline OLS regression; yet, to control for potential selection bias, also regressions employing predicted probabilities of adherence to a regime are used as robustness checks. Results point to four main conclusions. First, there is relevant heterogeneity in the way firms interact with platforms, cultivate internal capabilities and exploit diversification opportunities. Second, the different behaviors adopted by these firms are to some extent, yet not fully, defined by a series of structural characteristics, such as their size, age, experience, and industrial sub-sector. Third, also performance outcomes related to a firm’s presence on platform markets are influenced by its heterogeneous underlying characteristics: only firms with multifaceted and complex competitive behaviors are able to reap the gains from platform presence. Fourth, however, the worker outcomes of platform presence do not necessarily follow performance outcomes: productivity decrease is associated with both high and low platform presence; labor quality appears to have an inverse relationship with productivity in the sample of firms concerned, signaling a possible role of platforms in shaping employment relationships while allowing for productivity growth.
By Valeria Cirillo; Università di Bari    Dario Guarascio; Sapienza Università di Roma    Jacopo Tramontano; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Jacopo Tramontano, Sapienza Università di Roma
Technological diversification, internationalization of inventive activities and dissimilarity with host locations: evidence from top R&D performers Abstract This aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the international geographical scope of inventive activities and the technological diversification of top R&D performers into related and unrelated technological fields. Further, this study addresses a critical gap in understanding how specific contextual factors, that is the technology dissimilarity of companies with the foreign R&D host (sub-national) regions, can affect the corporate technological diversification. Employing a survey sample consisting of 1,125 top R&D performers, that have applied for 803,066 priority patent applications over the period of 2000-2018, our empirical analysis, using a fixed-effects panel regression model, unveils significant findings. Firstly, the breadth in the geographic distribution of foreign inventive activities serves as a catalyst for companies to expand and diversify their patent portfolio. Secondly, there is positive and significant relationship between technology dissimilarity and technological diversification. Moreover, we discover that expanding inventive activities into increasing number of foreign locations with a more dissimilar technological base tends to hinder the corporate technological diversification efforts.
By Loreta Calzaretta; Università di Salerno    Anna Maria Ferragina; Università di Salerno
Presented by: Loreta Calzaretta, Università di Salerno
Session 69: UNIVERSITY October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Raffaele Paci, Unversità di Cagliari
Exploring university trajectories with an evolutionary model Abstract Observed as direct actors in the economy, universities are increasingly asked to support the economic development at local, regional and country levels with the provision of (useful?) teaching and research (Cowan et al. 2010, Geuna 1999, Martin 2002, Readings 1996, Wowk et al. 2017). To meet these needs, a university organises its teaching and research activities by considering also the way the government distributes funds to the production of knowledge and adapts its behaviour accordingly (Garcia and Sanz-Menéndez 2005). Far from a mere passive institution, we consider a university as embodying evolutionary traits which change with the interactions with both other universities and the surrounding environment. Different organisations of teaching and research activities, and different commitments to the pursuit of any “third mission” (Martin 2002, 2012) potentially engender a flow of trajectories based on interactions and competition for public funds. The aim of this paper is to explore the development of these trajectories along with their determinants. In other words, we shed light on those conditions that shape the emergence and survival of a university as an evolutionary entity, and in which way different trajectories follow from the tendency of any university to interact with, and adapt to, higher-level institutional setting. The analysis of a university behaviour and the related competition for funding and students are not an unexplored issue at the frontier of economics. Among the many others, Del Rey (2000) elaborates a game with two universities that operate in same jurisdiction and compete for students and funding for teaching and research. From a neo-institutional perspective, Gumport and Snydman (2002) and Ramirez and Christensen (2013) focus on the evolution of universities according to their formal organisations, whose structure matters and shapes knowledge. Differently from the works above that mostly deal with the optimal formal structure of an academic organisation and on the static role of governments, we develop and evolutionary agent-based model in which a cluster of universities is analysed along three dimensions that reflect the endogenous choice of an institute between teaching and research, pure and utilitarian knowledge, and commitment to any social contract, i.e., what the society of the economy expect from university. Though, we define university as the locus in which both teaching and research are undertaken, the emergence of different trajectories may lead some of them to specialise in either one of the two extremes of any dimensions or both. This means that the notion of a university here adopted is quite pluralistic and includes further institutions that usually are not labelled as university, i.e., the Max Planck Institute or the Grand Ecoles (Collini 2012). A key role is assigned to the social contract and to the emergence of trade-offs between the so-called Mode 1 and Mode 2, if any (Martin 2002). From this perspective, the paper contributes to the literature that investigates how funding mechanisms affect the trajectory of a university along the three dimensions.
By Andrea Borsato; University of Strasbourg    Valentina Erasmo; Università di Torino    André Lorentz; University of Strasbourg
Presented by: Andrea Borsato, University of Strasbourg
From Campus to Cloud: Exploring Academic Achievements during the COVID-19 Pandemic Abstract This paper studies the impact of online teaching on students' academic performance. I exploit the sudden switch from in-person to online teaching occurring at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in a difference-in-differences setting. Using administrative data from the University of Naples Federico II, I compare the difference in students' performance between the first and the second semester of the academic year 2019/2020 to that of previous academic years. I find a 5.38\% increase in the number of credits attained in a semester and a 0.37\% increase in GPA. The effects are heterogeneous across students' characteristics and field of study. The positive effect is mainly driven by students taking exams from previous semesters.
By Corinna De Leo; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Corinna De Leo, Università di Napoli Federico II
Math Exposure and University Performance: Causal Evidence from Twins Abstract Taking mathematics courses in high school has far-reaching effects on various educational outcomes, including high school graduation rates, college enrollment and performance, and future earnings, while even influencing the likelihood of pursuing a career in STEM. Our work contributes to this research line by examining the effects of exposure to mathematics hours during high school on college major choice and performance. In order to identify the causal effect of high school math on our outcomes of interest, we exploit two complementary empirical strategies: The first is based on a twin fixed effects estimator and the second on a difference-in-differences estimator. Our results indicate that attending a low math school reduces the probability of enrolling in a STEM major and increases grade performances during college. Moreover, the fixed effects estimates reveal a downward bias in the standard OLS estimates, suggesting an even more powerful role for high school math than what has been pointed to in the literature. Our results also indicate that an increase in math hours reduces the probability of enrolling in a STEM major. Moreover, treated students tend to achieve higher grades during their college careers.
By Graziella Bertocchi; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Luca Bonacini; Università di Bologna    Majlinda Joxhe; Università di Bologna    Giuseppe Pignataro; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Luca Bonacini, Università di Bologna
Brain gain vs. brain drain The effects of universities’ mobile students on territorial inequalities Abstract Our study explores the relationship between university students’ mobility and local economic dynamics. Universities are pivotal in shaping societies and economies as hubs of knowledge creation, innovation, and cultural exchange. Recent research has emphasized the significant impact of university students on local development, yet there remains a gap in understanding the distinct effects of mobile and resident students on the local economy. Analyzing data from 90 NUTS3 provinces in Italy between 2013 and 2019, we investigate the spatial inequalities generated by student mobility. We concentrate on second-level university students, as they are closer to entering the labor market and thus have a more immediate economic impact. Our empirical model, based on a standard fixed effects growth model, reveals significant findings. Incoming students have a notably positive effect on the economic growth of the destination province, particularly in the Center-North regions (brain gain). Conversely, southern provinces experience a reduction in growth due to the loss of talented students (brain drain). Thus, student mobility contributes to exacerbating the enduring spatial disparities in Italy.
By Ivan Etzo; Università di Cagliari    Raffaele Paci; Unversità di Cagliari    Cristian Usala; Università di Cagliari
Presented by: Raffaele Paci, Unversità di Cagliari
Session 70: GROWTH October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Gianluigi Coppola, Università di Salerno
Crowding in Growth Abstract We use a quantitative heterogeneous agent model with portfolio choice to show that policies that impact inequality also impact aggregate growth. By affecting a household's insurance against risk, fiscal policy changes a household's ability to invest in risky assets that have an externality by generating aggregate growth. If policies worsen the insurance of households they can crowd out business creation. We illustrate that this effect is economically significant in a model calibrated to US time series.
By Christian Bayer; University of Bonn    Fabio Stohler; University of Bonn
Presented by: Fabio Stohler, University of Bonn
Globalization and ICTs capital endowment: How do they impact on an Inclusive Green Growth Index? Abstract This study investigates the contribution that digital transformation and globalization have made to inclusive, green economic growth. We construct an inclusive green growth index leveraging 28 variables accounting for economic, environmental and social performances. By exploiting a dataset of 95 countries and spanning from 2010 and 2020, we regress the inclusive green growth index on variables capturing investments in digital technologies and the degree of trade and capital openness. Findings show that while globalization does not have strong and significant relevance for inclusive green economic growth, investments in digital technologies are beneficial. However, this evidence does not hold for high income countries.
By Gianluigi De Pascale; Università di Foggia    Anna Romagno; Università di Foggia
Presented by: Gianluigi De Pascale, Università di Foggia
Social Group Welfare Gap and Competition: Evidence from Indian Trade Liberalization Abstract We exploit the external nature of Indian trade liberalization in 1991 to study the impact of increased competition on the welfare disadvantage faced by the Constitutionally recognized disadvantaged groups, known as Scheduled Castes/Tribes (SC/ST), in India. We focus on districts and use the 1991 employment composition in a district to calculate the relevant tariff reduction experienced by the district. We find that districts that experienced a larger tariff reduction also saw a decline in the conditional welfare gap between non-SC/ST and SC/ST in medium-term (1987-1999). However, the effect dissipates in long-run (1987-2009). Moreover, the medium-term effects were concentrated in rural areas only, and we do not find a statistically significant impact of tariff reduction on the change in the welfare gap in urban areas.
By Mehtabul Azam; Oklahoma State University    Shruti Sengupta; IIT Roorkee
Presented by: Shruti Sengupta, IIT Roorkee
What does GDP measure? Abstract The Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of a country's goods and services, reflecting the goals of capitalist market economies. Felice argues that constructing alternative indicators to GDP may be pointless without incorporating environmental and social goals. This paper attempts to elucidate the primary purpose of GDP measurement by comparing Economic Growth Theory with 19th-century philosophical thought on technology. In Solow's model, the main result is that in steady-state conditions, per capita income growth equals technological progress. The debate questions whether GDP reflects social well-being, with some literature linking GDP to happiness, or if it represents instead a tool to ensure social stability, achieved through technological progress, and particularly from the union between age-old hedonistic materialism and technological Prometheanism. The centrality of technology and technical progress has also occupied the philosophical reflections of many thinkers of the twentieth century. According to Severino, technology, originally a means of human action to achieve results and goals, has itself become an end. However, he argues that the dominion of technology cannot be considered a stable system, precisely because technology, having to renounce truth to be powerful, will not be able to provide a definitive answer on justice, which is based on truth.
By Gianluigi Coppola; Università di Salerno
Presented by: Gianluigi Coppola, Università di Salerno
Session 71: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION October 25, 2024 14:00 to 15:20 Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Alberto Franco Pozzolo, Università Roma Tre
The impact of remittances on financial Inclusion: Evidence from Vietnam Abstract This paper investigates the impact of domestic and foreign remittances on financial inclusion, using the pooled data from Vietnamese household surveys across four waves (2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020). Linear probability model is applied to estimate the influence of remittances on the ownership of various financial tools, from basic to advanced ones. Robust analyses are also conducted using panel data of biennale surveys and two-stage least squares method to control for potential endogeneity of remittances. Our findings highlight the significant impact of remittances on adopting various financial tools, especially the basic ones like bank accounts, ATMs and saving accounts. Urban residents and those with higher education levels show greater inclusion across both basic and advanced financial services such as credit, insurance or stock investments. This emphasizes the potential for remittances to foster financial inclusion in developing countries like Vietnam. Policymakers should therefore prioritize designing safe and affordable methods to facilitate remittance flows.
By Davide Infante; Università della Calabria    Nga Le Thu; Università della Calabria
Presented by: Nga Le Thu, Università della Calabria
What factors affect households' decision to be a new “international migrant household” in rural Bangladesh? Evidence from a unique panel data Abstract We explore the role of households’ economic status and migration network on the probability of becoming a new international migrant household while controlling for other conventional parameters. We use the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey data, a nationally representative panel for rural Bangladesh covering three periods – 2012, 2015, and 2018. Based on a dynamic panel probit model, we find that being from the top four income deciles in the base year (2012) leads to a statistically significant higher probability of being a migrant household in a later period. We also observe a strong impact of the migration network. Having a family member abroad in the baseline increases the probability of having a new migrant in the later periods significantly. Also, being in the migrant-prone area increases the probability of sending a new member abroad. However, the village migration network is a weaker predictor of future migration than the family network.
By Mahtab Uddin; University of Manchester
Presented by: Mahtab Uddin, University of Manchester
Drivers of migration: The influence of neighbouring countries on destination choice Abstract Several factors are likely to influence the size, the origin and the destination of flows of migrants. The seminal paper by Borjas (1987) describes the choice of migrating as determined by the average income differential between two countries, net of migration costs. Further developments have adopted a Random Utility Model (RUM) and have included additional location-specific determinants of utility. One of the main challenges in estimating RUMs is the adoption of the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) hypothesis, which limits the ability to explicitly control for the attractiveness of potentially alternative destinations. In this paper we develop a conceptual framework that allows to include among the determinants of migration choices also the characteristics of the alternative destinations. Based on this framework, we then estimate a RUM of the determinants of migration that includes an index of the characteristics of alternative destinations, using a sample of migration flows from over 200 origin countries and 35 OECD destination countries between 2000 and 2021. The results confirm the main findings of the literature also controlling for the characteristics of alternative destinations. In addition, they show that the presence of migrants from the same country of origin in other destinations discourage the flows to a given country.
By Rama Dasi Mariani; Università Roma Tre    Alberto Franco Pozzolo; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Alberto Franco Pozzolo, Università Roma Tre
Session 72: Keynote speech: Giancarlo Corsetti, Pierre Werner Chair at the Robert Schuman Centre and Professor of Economics at the European University Institute - Micro to macro approaches to monetary policy October 25, 2024 15:30 to 16:30 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Mario Pianta, Scuola Normale Superiore
PLENARY SESSION: Micro to macro approaches to monetary policy Abstract monetary policy
By Giancarlo Corsetti; European University Institute
Presented by: Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute
Session 73: TECHNOLOGY, GLOBALIZATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS: THE NEXT CHALLENGES FOR GROWTH AND PROSPERITY October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chairs:
Antonio Minniti, Università di Bologna
Carmelo Parello, Sapienza Università di Roma
Francesco Venturini, Università di Urbino
Family Institutions, Talent Allocation and Economic growth Abstract Do pre-industrial family institutions matter for (modern) growth and comparative development? We claim that family institutions (e.g., parental Vs. individual consent in marriage, limits to consanguineous marriage) affect intergenerational occupational mobility (IGOM), that is, whether children choose a type of job different from their parents. Through its impact on talent allocation across jobs, IGOM ultimately determines the growth trajectory of the economy. We also advance the hypothesis that the spread of the marriage doctrine of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages (which forbid cousin marriage and enforced individual as opposed to parental consent) may have generated a heterogeneous pattern of family values and thus of development patterns. In the first part of the paper, we build a growth model to study the interplay between IGOM -as shaped by family institutions- and economic growth along the development process. In the model, IGOM affects talent allocation and productivity growth. In turn, growth affects IGOM as, in a more sophisticated economy, the benefits from IGOM are larger. We find that family institutions favoring IGOM may be detrimental for the economy in the early stages of development but foster better talent allocation and higher productivity growth in later stages. In the second part of the paper, we verify empirically the main predictions of our theory against historical and modern data on Italy. Provincial measures for IGOM in modern times are obtained from the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW). Provincial-level GDP data are instead taken from ISTAT (“Conti Economici Territoriali”), while the historical penetration of the Church marriage doctrine in a province is obtained from its geographical distance from the border of the Carolingian Empire. We then study how, across Italian provinces, the “exposure” to Carolingian Empire in the Middle Ages hampered economic performance in pre-industrial times, while it has a positive impact on IGOM and, through this, on GDP growth in modern times.
By Paolo Giordani; LUISS Guido Carli    Zhaniya Idrissova; UC Louvain    Fabio Mariani; UC Louvain
Presented by: Paolo Giordani, LUISS Guido Carli
Technological Interdependence, Knowledge Transmission and Economic Growth Abstract This paper examines the impact of technological interdependence on economic growth in an increas- ingly integrated world. We construct a Schumpeterian growth model that highlights how innovation not only propels the expansion of leading economies but also facilitates the transfer of knowledge to developing nations. The ability of follower countries to effectively utilize technology transfers depends on their proximity to the technological leader. By catalyzing the technology catch-up of the followers, technological interdependence diminishes the innovation growth potential for the frontier economy. Subsequently, using half-century data from a global sample of countries, we evaluate the predictions of the model by measuring international technology interdependence based on the textual similarity of over 7 million patent applications. Our empirical findings underscore the significance of technolog- ical interdependence as a growth driver for technology leaders and, notably, for countries below the frontier. Furthermore, our data reveals a shift in technological interdependence over time, with China emerging as a dominant player in the world’s technology market, replacing the United States
By Andrea Fronzetti Colladon; Università di Perugia    Antonio Minniti; Università di Bologna    Carmelo Parello; Sapienza Università di Roma    Francesco Venturini; Università di Urbino
Presented by: Carmelo Parello, Sapienza Università di Roma
Innovation Union: Costs and Benefits of Innovation Policy Coordination Abstract What are the growth and welfare effects of an innovation subsidy war? We address this question in a two-region endogenous growth model with exogenous and endogenous international knowledge spillovers. We use the model to analyse subsidy competition and cooperation in the EU, which has a common trade and monetary policy but where a coordinated innovation is still in its infancy. To highlight the role of countries’ asymmetries, the model is calibrated to two blocks of the EU: the old Western European members and new members from Eastern Europe. We compare a scenario where regions set their R&D subsidies competitively with one in which they are set cooperatively. Cooperation is motivated by the distortions from subsidy competition, the strategic motive supporting a zero-sum game, and by intertemporal knowledge spillovers, which drive growth. We find substantial gains to coordination at the union level, deriving exclusively from correcting the strategic motive. Policy cooperation impacts regions differently, benefiting the new members and penalising the old members. When international idea flows are endogenised via FDI, knowledge spillovers and therefore growth, become the main drivers of coordination gains, which are also more equally distributed across regions. Our findings also suggest that conclusions based on steady state analysis have misleading optimal subsidies and overstate the estimated gains from policy cooperation.
By Teodora Borota Milicevic; Uppsala University    Fabrice Defever; University of Lille    Giammario Impullitti; University of Nottingham    Adam Hal Spencer; University of Nottingham
Presented by: Giammario Impullitti, University of Nottingham
Credit Markets, Corporate Governance and Growth Abstract We investigate the interplay between the banking sector and firms’ governance in a dynamic general equilibrium setting where banks act both as delegated monitors of households in curbing corporate governance frictions and as facilitators of new business creation. We find that the two traditional activities of banks can generate sharply different consequences for incumbent firms’ investments, output growth, and welfare. The calibrated model reveals that positive shocks to banks’ monitoring efficiency boost incumbents’ investments and growth both in the short and the long run. Increases in banks’ efficiency at entry can instead depress investments and growth by exacerbating the incentive to divert resources from incumbent firms for productive, out-of-firm uses. Quantitative experiments study business dynamics and the economy’s pace of investment. We test the mechanisms of the model using data from the Italian corporate and banking sector.
By Emanuele Brancati; Sapienza Università di Roma    Paolo E. Giordani; Università di Torino    Maurizio Iacopetta; SKEMA Business School and OFCE Sciences Po    Raoul Minetti; Michigan State University
Presented by: Maurizio Iacopetta, SKEMA Business School and OFCE Sciences Po
Entrepreneurial Human Capital and Firm Informality Abstract This paper investigates the interplay between entrepreneurial investments in human capital and the informality of firms, and explores how this dynamic is influenced by a country's level of financial frictions. We have constructed a comprehensive quantitative life-cycle general equilibrium model of entrepreneurship that accounts for credit market imperfections, limited tax enforcement, and educational decision-making. Our quantitative findings reveal that factors supporting increased educational attainment among entrepreneurs play a pivotal role in promoting formalization within firms. This is primarily achieved through the availability of a skilled labor force, leading to heightened firm productivity. The magnitude of this effect is intricately linked to the extent of credit market imperfections prevalent in the economy.
By Adilya Abdrazakova; University of Alicante    Luis Franjo; University of Alicante    Francesco Turino; University of Alicante
Presented by: Francesco Turino, University of Alicante
Session 74: EUROPEAN COMPETITIVENESS 2: INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN TIMES OF WEAPONISED INTERDEPENDENCE October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chairs:
Dario Guarascio, Sapienza Università di Roma
Donato Iacobucci, Università Politecnica delle Marche
United in diversity? Core-periphery divides at the time of green transition Abstract One of the major flaws affecting the European Union (EU) is the core-periphery divide that ballasted its economy, in good and in bad times alike (Simonazzi et al., 2013; Celi et al., 2018). Until the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, this has been mainly a north-south divide: each crisis (from the 2008 crisis to the Covid-19 pandemic) widened the gap between the German- centred core (Stehrer and Stollinger, 2015), which stood out as the most resilient part of the EU economy, and the southern periphery (SP), worsening its position in terms of technological capabilities, productivity and growth (Celi et al., 2020; Gräbner et al., 2020). Yet, as a ‘new global order’ (Rodrik and Walt, 2022) made of growing conflicts (e.g., Ukraine, Palestine, the Red Sea), GVC disruptions, technology wars and inflation took the scene (Baldwin and Freeman, 2022), the European picture has rapidly changed. While the export-led core starts revealing all its fragility (Celi et al., 2022), new divides add to the existing ones (Pisani-Ferry et al., 2024).
By Dario Guarascio; Sapienza Università di Roma    Jelena Reljic; Sapienza Università di Roma    Annamaria Simonazzi; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Dario Guarascio, Sapienza Università di Roma
Technology sovereignty and technology adoption. The case of blockchain to support supply chain traceability Abstract The EU is stressing the importance of enhancing technological and digital sovereignty to ensure the competitiveness and future development of European member countries. Blockchain represents the case of an advanced digital technology with great potential to impact the economy and society. In recent years, the potential of blockchain technology has been recognized in ensuring traceability and transparency of supply chains, especially in the agri-food sector. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence about the development of blockchain technology and its adoption in supply chain traceability. Given these premises, the paper aims to investigate to what extent blockchain is adopted by Italian agri-food companies and which factors influence its adoption. We collected information on companies involved in the adoption of blockchain technology in the agrifood sector by using primary and secondary data. The former are collected from company websites using web scraping methods to identify companies adopting blockchain technologies. The latter are collected from available databases mapping companies that received public subsidies for the adoption of this digital technology. Using econometric techniques, we examine the factors affecting the adoption of blockchain technology at company and local level. Results show that blockchain technology is not as widespread as expected given its potential advantages for the traceability of agri-food supply chain. Moreover, the size of the company remains one of the main factors explaining its adoption. Consequently, there is a need to design effective industrial policies at regional and national level to enhance the adoption of blockchain technology, especially in SMEs.
By Valentina Giannini; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Donato Iacobucci; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Martina Orci; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Donato Iacobucci, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Valentina Giannini, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Martina Orci, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Assessing EU energy resilience and vulnerabilities: Concepts, empirical evidence and policy strategies Abstract Assessing EU energy resilience and vulnerabilities: Concepts, empirical evidence and policy strategies
By Dario Guarascio; Sapienza Università di Roma    Jelena Reljic; Sapienza Università di Roma    Francesco Zezza; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Francesco Zezza, Sapienza Università di Roma
Session 75: STRUCTURAL CHANGE October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Alberto Tidu, Università di Cagliari, CRENOS
Kaldorian cumulative causation in the Euro area: an empirical assessment of divergent export competitiveness Abstract Over the past decades, models of circular and cumulative causation, based on the endogenous relations between prices, exports, and labour productivity, have lost prominence in explaining economic dynamics. We argue that, in the absence of counterbalancing mechanisms, the combination of price-sensitive exports and the triggering effect of exports on productivity can enable feedback loops and can significantly shape macroeconomic reality in the short-to-medium run. We apply an adapted export-led model of cumulative causation to 10 major countries belonging the Euro area, a region characterized by divergent wage growth trajectories reflected in divergent export competitiveness and lack of equilibrating mechanisms. Specifically, the model is tested for the period 1995–2020 employing a country-level system of equations (3SLS-ARDL). Our findings indicate that for the majority of the countries examined, this feedback mechanism – comprising price-sensitive exports and export demand affecting productivity growth – exacerbates macroeconomic disparities in terms of labour productivity. While nominal wages act as a potential trigger through their impact on price competitiveness, they also serve as a central factor that retards the feedback mechanism due to the Verdoorn effect of wage-induced demand. Overall, our results affirm the significance of price-induced and export-led theories of cumulative causation while also delineating its limitations, particularly regarding price competitiveness-oriented export-led growth strategies.
By Sascha Keil; Chemnitz University of Technology    Walter Paternesi Meloni; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Walter Paternesi Meloni, Sapienza Università di Roma
Has the Brexit uncertainty affected productivity in the European Union? Abstract This paper evaluates the effect of Brexit uncertainty that arises due to the Brexit referendum on the productivity of the European Union (EU). For this purpose, the supply shock to the domestic firms of the European countries is focused. Using the two-digit industry-level data, the results show that Brexit uncertainty reduces the median of total factor productivity by 2.21%, labor productivity by 2.72%, and capital productivity by 2.63% of the domestic firms as the imports from the UK decreased after the referendum. The paper also finds that Brexit uncertainty tends to harm new firms. Moreover, medium-aged firms are not adversely affected by the Brexit uncertainty. Furthermore, firms with foreign ownership are likely to adjust to tackle the supply shock from Brexit. The results from Difference-indifferences (DID) and Synthetic DID specifications support the main evidence.
By Adeel Dar; Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Presented by: Adeel Dar, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Structural Change at a Disaggregated Level: Sectoral Heterogeneity Matters Abstract I analyze a disaggregated structural change model for the US economy in the post-Second World War period. My results reveal that the positive correlation between the relative price and the relative quantity of services with respect to goods, a fact that challenges CES preferences commonly used in the structural change literature, largely reflects the heterogeneous makeup of the services sector. I show that a preference specification where service industries with high productivity growth (progressive services) are separated from the rest of services can account for this positive correlation without any income effects. Consistent with the development facts, the disaggregated structural change model I consider implicates a hump for the relative price of investment. Regarding structural change in investment, the results of the disaggregated model differ from the existing literature. More specifically, the price of services relative to goods declines over time and the rise of the services sector in investment reflects the substitutability between goods and services.
By Ali Sen; University of Cambridge
Presented by: Ali Sen, University of Cambridge
Intranational and international trade flows: implications for economic growth in EU regions Abstract The role of trade openness in enhancing growth has always been one of the most important and debated economic issues. The last decades have undoubtedly seen a tendency towards open economies, resulting in any form of (even partial) autarchy becoming less and less prevalent in most of the world. This paper uses the Territorial Data Analysis and Modelling (TEDAM) database to investigate how trade influences growth in 233 European regions from 2017 onwards. The database allows us to differentiate trade with other domestic regions from trade with foreign countries. This distinction immediately appears necessary when one acknowledges that about 60% of out-of-region trade in Europe originates from or is directed to other regions in the same country. Our results indicate that not only this type of trade is not as conducive to growth as trade with foreign countries, but that it might even be detrimental to the region's economic performance: this could indicate that domestic trade is pursued as a last-resort alternative when a region is unable to trade conspicuously with foreign countries. The same patterns appear also in import and export when they are taken individually.
By Alberto Tidu; Università di Cagliari, CRENOS    Stefano Usai; Università di Cagliari    Luigi Apuzzo; Università di Cagliari
Presented by: Alberto Tidu, Università di Cagliari, CRENOS
Session 76: RICORDANDO CLAUDIO NAPOLEONI A CENTO ANNI DALLA NASCITA (Claudio Napoleoni at 100) (with STOREP - Associazione Italiana per la Storia dell'Economia Politica) October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Riccardo Bellofiore, Università di Bergamo
Il Keynes di Napoleoni Abstract Questo contributo si propone di analizzare la lettura che Napoleoni sviluppa di Keynes, partendo dalle voci “Liquidità” e “Moltiplicatore” del Dizionario di economia politica (1956) fino al Discorso sull’economia politica e a Dalla scienza all’utopia (1985). Già da subito, Napoleoni ritiene che Keynes non operi una frattura radicale con la teoria neoclassica. Tutt’altro: egli, rendendo “massimamente rigorosa la teoria eterodossa”, ne operava “la liquidazione definitiva” nella misura in cui mostrava come le crisi originanti nell’insufficienza della domanda aggregata fossero sempre sormontabili grazie a politiche di spesa pubblica che avrebbero ristabilito una situazione perfettamente conforme al quadro descritto dalla teoria marginale. Tale giudizio è ulteriormente sviluppato, più di vent’anni dopo, nella quarta sezione del Discorso sull’economia politica, in cui, difendendo la significatività analitica del modello IS-LM, Napoleoni evidenziava come per Keynes l’espansione della domanda aggregata avrebbe reso possibile quella compressione del salario reale auspicata dalla teoria neoclassica stessa per ristabilire il pieno impiego attraverso una strada diversa dal taglio del salario nominale, che avrebbe invece colpito le aspettative circa la domanda futura. Questa interpretazione, mostrando che Keynes fosse consapevole del vincolo rappresentato dalla distribuzione, permetteva a Napoleoni di negare che negli anni ’70 la teoria keynesiana fosse entrata in crisi a causa delle pressioni inflazionistiche dovute a un riformismo che aveva invece voluto coniugare pieno impiego e accrescimento della quota salari. Agli occhi di Napoleoni, tali politiche redistributive, incompatibili da una prospettiva keynesiana con il mantenimento efficiente del pieno impiego, rappresentano una compensazione che il movimento riformista aveva cercato di offrire all’asimmetria tra capitale e lavoro riguardo alla questione della proprietà e alla subordinazione della società intera agli imperativi della produzione. Proprio nel Keynes delle Prospettive economiche per i nostri nipoti, Napoleoni giunge a ritenere che si possa recuperare una risposta più adeguata all'esigenza di sottrarsi al dominio, capace al contempo di non essere un semplice surrogato e di rispettare i vincoli posti dalla teoria economica: la progressiva limitazione dell’importanza della sfera della produzione e la possibilità di pensare una liberazione al di fuori di essa. L’esposizione terrà conto 1) dell’importanza di Hicks e Meade per l’interpretazione di Keynes proposta da Napoleoni; 2) della posizione di Napoleoni circa la sintesi neoclassica; 3) delle specificità del riformismo di Keynes, anche a proposito della questione sindacale, e del modo in cui sono rivisitate da Napoleoni; 4) dell’importanza per la politica economica della lotta alla rendita, già centrale in Keynes; 5) dell’enfasi in Napoleoni sul nesso tra Keynes e teoria marginale, che invece le coeve interpretazioni di Graziani, Pasinetti e Garegnani, con modalità e finalità diverse, cercano invece di spezzare; 6) del recupero del Keynes delle Prospettive in conseguenza dell'impossibilità per Napoleoni, almeno negli anni ‘80, di pensare un’emancipazione che sia anche interna alla sfera della produzione.
By Luca Timponelli; Université de Lausanne
Presented by: Luca Timponelli, Université de Lausanne
Il ruolo storico del capitale e l'uscita dal lavoro Abstract Ci si interrogherà sulle diverse posizioni che Napoleoni ha maturato in merito alla questione del ruolo storico del capitale e del giudizio da dare sulla tesi di una uscita dal lavoro come esito della dinamica economico-sociale. Il tema è in realtà antico, e rimanda a una questione che affonda le proprie radici nella riflessione di Adam Smith come viene rovesciata da John Stuart Mill e John Maynard Keynes. Su questa questione l’autore ha finito con il presentare posizioni opposte negli anni Sessanta (all’epoca della Rivista Trimestrale) e Ottanta (all’epoca del Discorso sull’economia politica). Ci si concentrerà soprattutto sulla posizione di Napoleoni negli anni Settanta, ispirata al rovesciamento del circolo capital-capitale nel circolo lavoro-lavoro. Il testo probabilmente più maturo, e poco noto, è il capitolo contenuto nella terza edizione (1978) degli Elementi di Economia Politica per La Nuova Italia. La questione posta è di quale sia il ruolo nella storia dell’umanità di una realtà sociale dove non sia il consumo, la soddisfazione dei bisogni, il fine ma l’allargamento del capitale. Non vi si può rispondere senza considerare il ruolo essenziale e centrale del lavoro come attività condizionata eppur libera almeno a partire dalla società borghese, il che conduce l’autore a criticare l’antropologia smithiana del lavoro come toil and trouble e la prospettiva milliana e keynesiana di esodo dal lavoro in favore della posizione marxiana dove il lavoro può essere l’attività in cui l’essere umano si realizza nella propria libertà e felicità, e dove quindi la liberazione dal lavoro assume un senso positivo solo assieme alla liberazione del lavoro.
By Riccardo Bellofiore; Università di Bergamo
Presented by: Riccardo Bellofiore, Università di Bergamo
La riedizione delle Lezioni sul capitolo sesto inedito di Marx: l’attualità futura di Claudio Napoleoni Abstract In occasione della riedizione delle Lezioni sul capitolo sesto inedito di Marx (1972), prevista per novembre 2024 presso Rogas Edizioni, mi propongo di ricostruire la centralità di questo ciclo di lezioni tenute da Claudio Napoleoni tra marzo e maggio 1971 presso la Facoltà di Scienze Politiche dell’Università di Torino e poi pubblicate l’anno dopo presso Boringhieri. Le Lezioni rappresentano per Napoleoni il punto di passaggio tra il periodo della Rivista Trimestrale, incentrato su un’interpretazione di Marx fortemente influenzata dall’opera sraffiana e sulla “riforma dei consumi” come implicazione politica del venire meno dell’ipotesi di sfruttamento, al periodo torinese, incentrato invece sul progetto collettiano di ripresa della teoria del valore-lavoro come dimensione analitica per la decostruzione storico-sociale del lavoro capitalistico. Mi propongo anche di analizzare quanto di questo periodo rimanga nelle due fasi successive di Napoleoni, quella marcusiana-heideggeriana e quella finale di ripresa di contenuti provenienti dalla teologia cattolica. Piuttosto che in netta discontinuità, si tenterà di mostrare gli elementi di coerenza e continuità.
By Gabriele Guzzi; Fondazione Luigi Einaudi e Università di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale
Presented by: Gabriele Guzzi, Fondazione Luigi Einaudi e Università di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale
Session 77: PRESENTAZIONE DEL RAPPORTO ANNUALE INPS October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)
Session Chair: Gianfranco Santoro, INPS
Il mercato del lavoro attraverso i dati INPS Abstract Il mercato del lavoro attraverso i dati INPS
By Saverio Bombelli; INPS
Presented by: Saverio Bombelli, INPS
Le misure di supporto ai lavoratori Abstract Le misure di supporto ai lavoratori
By Gianfranco Santoro; INPS
Presented by: Gianfranco Santoro, INPS
Strumenti di supporto alla famiglia Abstract Strumenti di supporto alla famiglia
By Maria De Paola; Università della Calabria e INPS
Presented by: Maria De Paola, Università della Calabria e INPS
Pensioni Abstract Pensioni
By Monica Paiella; INPS e Università di Napoli Parthenope
Presented by: Monica Paiella, INPS e Università di Napoli Parthenope
Session 78: WAGES IN ITALY AND EUROPE October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Valeria Cirillo, Università di Bari
The long-term fall of real wages in Italy Abstract The long-term fall of real wages in Italy
By Rinaldo Evangelista; Università di Camerino    Matteo Lucchese; ISTAT
Presented by: Rinaldo Evangelista, Università di Camerino
Matteo Lucchese, ISTAT
Wages across occupational groups in Europe Abstract This paper examines wage patterns across broad occupational groups — managers, clerks, craft workers and manual workers — in four major European countries, using a novel industry-level dataset. Wages are linked to technological, structural and labour market characteristics of industries over the last two decades. The determinants of wages and their relative disparities are explored, identifying key drivers of labour remuneration and heterogeneity across different occupational groups and countries. By exploring these determinants, this study sheds light on the underlying forces that are shaping labour remuneration in Europe.
By Marco Stamegna; Scuola Normale Superiore    Mario Pianta; Scuola Normale Superiore    Jelena Reljic; Sapienza Università di Roma    Riccardo Rinaldi; Università di Parma
Presented by: Marco Stamegna, Scuola Normale Superiore
Jelena Reljic, Sapienza Università di Roma
Riccardo Rinaldi, Università di Parma
Long-term working career dynamics and contribution accumulation in the Italian NDC pension system: empirical evidence and policy implications Abstract Exploiting VisitINPS archives, we investigate the entire individuals’ labour market histories from the entry year in the labour market up to 2021. Our aim is, thus, to compare across cohorts the evolution of labour market careers over time in Italy. In more detail, distinguishing individuals by entry cohorts and focusing on those entered from 1996 – which are enrolled in the new NDC pension system – we focus on the various possible drivers of unsuccessful career and low pension accumulation – i.e. low earnings, non-standard contractual arrangements, periods spent without actual or notional contributions –, comparing across cohorts and by individuals’ characteristics (e.g., gender, region and province of birth and residence, prevalent occupation, sector and type of activity) a series of long-term indicators about the success of their career: e.g. number of years spent in law pay, extent of periods in unemployment, low pension contribution accumulation. As a benchmark, we also compute our indicators of career fragility for private employees who entered the labour market from 1985 to 1995, to verify whether individual dynamics in the first phase of the working career have dramatically changed over time.
By Michele Raitano; Sapienza Università di Roma    Francesca Subioli; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Michele Raitano, Sapienza Università di Roma
Francesca Subioli, Università Roma Tre
Session 79: CONFLICT, MILITARY SPENDING AND MILITARIZATION. RECENT ISSUES AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE (with EPS - Economists for Peace and Security) October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Raul Caruso, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Towards a common defence in EU: Insights from a DEA Analysis on the Efficiency of Defense Spending from 2005 to Year 2020 Abstract This paper investigates the efficiency of defense spending in EU countries using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Unlike other public services, there are no established indicators of outputs and outcomes for defense. Thus, we assess intermediate outcomes like the capacity to deploy adequately equipped military personnel. In our DEA estimation, we use troop numbers and equipment levels as outputs, with defense expenditure per capita as input. Our analysis reveals significant inefficiencies across European countries, with many showing suboptimal scale efficiency. This suggests potential benefits in reallocating certain defense competencies to the European level to improve overall efficiency. Such a move could increase border defense troops while maintaining expenditure levels. Moreover, our findings highlight disparities between western and eastern countries, with the latter generally exhibiting lower efficiency levels despite comparable or higher defense spending. In brief, our analysis allows us to estimate the potential efficiency gains from the introduction of a common EU defence.
By Marco Buso; Università di Padova    Raul Caruso; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Marco Buso, Università di Padova
EU strategic autonomy or subordination to the US? Exploring the trajectories of the European defence industry from 2008 to the Ukraine war Abstract This study aims to analyze the trajectories of the European defense industry, focusing on Germany, Italy, and Spain since 2014. The fundamental questions guiding this study are: What trajectory is the European defense industry following? Is there a growing emphasis on European procurement and strategic autonomy or a collaboration with, subordination to the US? The research timeline spans from 2008 to 2024, specifically after the Crimea invasion (2014) and after Ukraine invasion (2022) to observe any potential impacts on company directions. The paths of restructuring among major defense companies in Germany, Italy, and Spain, including Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Leonardo, Navantia, and Airbus, are evaluated. The methodology involves constructing an index assessing autonomy in arms production or integration within US and EU defense industries, utilizing variables such as revenue, employment, shareholder compositions, R&D expenditures, imports, concentration indices, co-productions with other EU defense companies, collaborations with US defense companies, technological innovation measures. Multivariate regression and Chow tests will be employed to analyze index changes over periods. Qualitative methods like semi-structured interviews with industry representatives, trade unions, and experts might complement quantitative analysis. Geopolitical alliances, co-production types, relationships, and labor divisions will also be examined. The study aims to anticipate the transformation of the EU defense industry, assess trajectories prioritizing EU collaborations, and align them with national defense policies amidst geopolitical shifts and technological landscapes, trying to offer a replicable index of strategic and technological autonomy for different geopolitical scenarios.
By Gianni Alioti; The Weapon Watch    Chiara Bonaiuti; Ires Toscana    Roberto Romano; Esta - Economia e Sostenibilità
Presented by: Chiara Bonaiuti, Ires Toscana
The Evolution of the Grubel-Lloyd Index for Intra-Industry Trade of Conventional Weapons in EU Countries Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between imports of SALW (Small Arms and Light Weapons) and human rights violations. Small arms are frequently used by polices forces to repress the civil population. Furthermore, the spread of SALW contributes to long-term securitization of politics and society and this, in turn, may lead to the deterioration of human rights conditions. In this paper, we use data reporting SALW imports from top 10 world exporters towards South-American and African countries over 1991-2017. The independent are large increases in SALW imports measured as positive deviations from the growth rate of SALW imports. The dependent variable is the Physical Violence Index from V-DEM measuring the extent to which physical integrity is respected in a country. Our hypothesis is that large increases in imports of SALW are a signal that a regime is planning to repress the civil population. To test this hypothesis, we use both fixed or random effects models estimating separately South-American and African countries. Preliminary results show that there is a positive association between past large increases in SALW imports and the deterioration of human rights in the importer
By Adelaide Baronchelli; Università di Torino    Raul Caruso; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Adelaide Baronchelli, Università di Torino
Food for Peace? Exploring the Link between Conflict and Food Insecurity in Africa Abstract The paper analyses the relation between conflict, food security, environmental change and migration patterns, in African countries . First it considers how conflict affects food insecurity , by combining data from Afrobarometer surveys and the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). It investigates the multifaceted ways in which conflict exacerbates food scarcity and examines the immediate effects on populations directly involved in conflicts and the secondary impacts (spillover effects) on neighbouring regions. Using a zero-inflated ordered probit model our analysis indicates that conflict can elevate food insecurity, both in terms the probability of individuals falling into a state of food insecurity (extensive margin) and the severity of food insecurity among those already affected (intensive margin). The paper delves into the intricate channels including environmental change and migration patterns, and provides a nuanced understanding of how these elements interact to influence food security. Specifically, when the perception of climate change in the region is extremely high, we observe a substantial increase in food insecurity incidence. In contrast, when we consider regions with a more tempered perception of climate change, the results align with the benchmark model. Overall, the paper underscores the urgency of addressing food insecurity as a matter of global concern, with far-reaching implications for stability, development, and human well-being.
By Andrea Crippa; Università di Perugia    Giorgio d'Agostino; Università Roma Tre    John Paul Dunne; University of Cape Town    Luca Pieroni; Università di Perugia
Presented by: Luca Pieroni, Università di Perugia
Session 80: A MORE EQUAL FUTURE OF WORK FOR WOMEN? THE EFFECTS OF AI, AUTOMATION, AND NEW WAYS OF WORKING (with AISSEC - Associazione Italiana per lo Studio dei Sistemi Economici Comparati) October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chairs:
Francesca Bettio, Università di Siena
Alina Verashchagina, Università di Chieti-Pescara
An assessment of the occupational exposure to artificial intelligence in Italy Abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a general purpose technology with broad applicability across domains and economic sectors. We review some of the most recent measures of labour market exposure to AI in advanced economies and then assess the implications for the Italian labour market. We find that occupations more exposed to AI are mostly in the service sectors and employ a large fraction of high skilled workers. Women are more likely than men to work in highly exposed occupations. Workers in substitutable occupations are more concentrated in the North-West of the country, while complement occupations are more present in the South. The impact on income distribution is not clear, as both occupations at risk of being substituted and complemented by AI are in typically high-wage sectors. Displacement effects in the close future are possibly mitigated by the type of contract of workers in more substitutable occupations.
By Antonio Dalla Zuanna; Banca d'Italia    Davide Dottori; Banca d'Italia    Elena Gentili; Banca d'Italia
Presented by: Elena Gentili, Banca d'Italia
Assessing gender inequality in digital labour platforms in Europe Abstract Digital platform work has rapidly expanded in Europe in the last decade and is expected to continue doing so in the future. Women represent already 4 out of 10 workers in the platform economy, but studies on this topic that incorporate a gender and feminist lens are still scarce. Our study analyses gender inequalities in digital labour platforms in Europe, revealing the pervasiveness of segregation and the highly asymmetrical model of gender relations. Drawing from recent survey data on platform work, our findings show that the platform economy is providing employment opportunities for the labour market integration of disadvantaged groups who lack better options, but women’s participation in platforms is concentrated in more ‘feminised’ tasks, their work intensity in the platform is lower, and they have slightly worse working conditions and earnings than men. Our results suggest the need for a new analytic approach to platforms, which emphasises labour force heterogeneity, worker dependence in platform work, and changing gender relations.
By Annarosa Pesole; International Labour Organization    Paula Rodriguez-Modroño; Universidad Pablo de Olavide
Presented by: Paula Rodriguez-Modroño, Universidad Pablo de Olavide
Did COVID-19 (permanently) raise the demand for “teleworkable” jobs? Abstract This study leverages detailed administrative data on firms’ job flows and differences across Local Labor Markets (LLMs) in the spread of COVID-19 to investigate shifts in labor demand prompted by the pandemic in Italy. Namely, we investigate the effect of COVID-19 on the composition of new hires in terms of jobs suitable for “working from home” (WFH), which marked profound changes in contemporary work structures. Our results reveal a significant increase in the “teleworkable” hires in LLMs more severely hit by the pandemic, primarily driven by permanent contracts. An event study analysis uncovers substantial heterogeneity over time. Indeed, the effect was short-term and lasted only for two semesters after the pandemic’s outbreak. Although this shift was transitory, by involving permanent hires it will presumably have long-lasting effects on the structure of the workforce. An effect-heterogeneity analysis shows that effects were larger on the demand for female and younger workers and on the hirings of firms located in Northern Italy.
By Massimiliano Bratti; Università di Milano    Irene Brunetti; INAPP    Alessandro Corvasce; Università di Milano    Agata Maida; Università di Milano    Andrea Ricci; INAPP
Presented by: Irene Brunetti, INAPP
Session 81: L'AUTONOMIA REGIONALE DIFFERENZIATA IN ITALIA: STATO DELL'ARTE E POSSIBILI IMPLICAZIONI October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Gianfranco Viesti, Università di Bari
Le richieste regionali e le loro possibili implicazioni per le politiche pubbliche in Italia Abstract Autonomia regionale differenziata
By Gianfranco Viesti; Università di Bari
Presented by: Gianfranco Viesti, Università di Bari
I meccanismi di finanziamento delle competenze regionali Abstract autonomia regionale differenziata
By Alberto Zanardi; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Alberto Zanardi, Università di Bologna
Servizi pubblici, livelli essenziali delle prestazioni e diritti di cittadinanza Abstract autonomia regionale differenziata
By Floriana Cerniglia; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Floriana Cerniglia, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Session 82: FIRM BEHAVIOUR October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Gaetano Lisi, Università eCampus
Business ethics and IFRS 16 impact on the hospitality sector Abstract Lease accounting has been criticized for being reliant on subjective judgments, as lessees were not required to disclose assets and liabilities on balance sheets, improving the appearance of the financial condition. This paper investigates the impact on investors’ risk perception level on EU hospitality companies following the enactment of the IFRS 16 accounting standard: this starting a new era of lease accounting, ending the guesswork required when calculating lease obligations. Results confirm the importance of disclosing all the relevant information about leases within financial statements, to enhance their transparency and comparability, to protect investors, and to improve business ethics.
By Niccolò Comerio; LIUC Università Cattaneo    Fausto Pacicco; LIUC Università Cattaneo
Presented by: Fausto Pacicco, LIUC Università Cattaneo
The role of demand turbulence in firms' probability to adopt an innovative business model (temptative title) Abstract This work aims to achieve a better understanding of the role played by sectoral demand turbulence in firms’ innovation strategies, and in particular in the adoption of innovative business models. We implement our quantitative analysis through probit regressions using a sample of almost 2,000 Italian companies. The results of the regression analysis reveal that, in line with Massa and Tucci’s predictions, innovative business models are more frequent in the maturity stage of market development, while product innovation and process innovation are more associated with the early and the intermediate stages, respectively. However, it also shows that the adoption of innovative BMs, as well as the introduction of product innovation or process innovation, are not spurred by the mere maturity phase of the industry life cycle: in particular, we find that, controlling for the stage of the ILC, demand turbulence is positively associated with product innovation and negatively related to BMI. This may help explain why the various forms of innovation are sometimes observed also in periods that differ from the one suggested by the prevalent theory, and thus help reconcile the predictions of the main theoretical models with the mixed empirical evidence.
By Jasmine Mondolo; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Jasmine Mondolo, Università Politecnica delle Marche
A simplified, automated and reliable method for the appraisal of residential properties Abstract The appraisal of residential properties is crucial for investment decisions of households, firms, banks, and real estate developers. Within the market approach to real estate valuation, the hedonic pricing method (HPM) is preferred by academic scholars and requires statistical-mathematical skills, while the sales comparison method (SCM) is chosen by professionals and requires technical expertise. Automated valuation models (AVMs) were developed to reduce the gap between professionals and academic scholars. However, an AVM is essentially a ”black box” since many providers do not publish information on their algorithms. This paper fills this important gap since it develops an automated and ”transparent” SCM that requires neither subjective criteria nor high statisticalmathematical skills. A case study in Rome shows that this method can provide reliable estimates of the market value of residential properties.
By Gaetano Lisi; Università eCampus
Presented by: Gaetano Lisi, Università eCampus
Session 83: ECONOMICS AND GEOGRAPHY OF THE TWIN-TRANSITION: DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES, CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS, AND GREEN INNOVATIONS AND JOBS October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Sandro Montresor, Università di Trento
The “dark green” side of economic complexity: evidence from Italian NUTS-3 regions Abstract This paper investigates a possible dark side of economic complexity related to the production of CO2 emissions, the use of energy, and the import of CO2 emissions from other countries. We argue that a higher product sophistication can be related to a higher or lower production of CO2 emissions and energy intensity at home but can be related to higher CO2 embedded in goods and materials imported from foreign countries, especially from those with low environmental performance. We test these hypotheses using international trade data for Italian NUTS-3 regions for the period 2015-2019 merged with yearly grid maps on CO2 emissions, regional energy use data, and the Trade in Embodied CO2 Database from OECD. We also test for the presence of endogeneity and spatial spillovers across regions using an instrumental variable approach and spatial econometric techniques.
By Roberto Antonietti; Università di Padova    Pietro Luzzago; Università di Padova
Presented by: Pietro Luzzago, Università di Padova
Moneytalks: the role of (spatial and digital) proximity in the VC financing of green start-ups Abstract Moneytalks: the role of (spatial and digital) proximity in the VC financing of green start-ups
By Davide Consoli; INGENIO CSIC-UPV    Francesco Lelli; Gran Sasso Science Institute (GSSI)    Sandro Montresor; Università di Trento    François Perruchas; University of Valencia    Francesco Rentocchini; Università di Milano
Presented by: Francesco Lelli, Gran Sasso Science Institute (GSSI)
The Science Base of the "twin transition" Abstract The Science Base of the "twin transition"
By Stefano Bianchini; BETA - University of Strasbourg    Giacomo Damioli; BETA - University of Strasbourg    Claudia Ghisetti; Università di Milano-Bicocca
Presented by: Claudia Ghisetti, Università di Milano-Bicocca
The twin transition of Italian SMEs: The digital technologies enabling the green transformation Abstract The twin transition of Italian SMEs: The digital technologies enabling the green transformation
By Marco Cucculelli; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Ivano Dileo; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Alessandro Marra; Università di Chieti-Pescara
Presented by: Marco Cucculelli, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Session 84: TOURISM October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Alessandra Centinaio, LIUC Università Cattaneo
Contextual factors and efficiency gains in Italian tourist destinations Abstract The paper investigates the efficiency of 103 Italian provinces and some contextual factors that influence the competitiveness of a territorial tourist destination, defined as an ensemble of different historical, economic, environmental, and social traditions. Non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis and semi-parametric bootstrapping extensions are applied over the period 2012-2019. The findings demonstrate that tourism destinations are considerably technically and scale inefficient, and that the total factor productivity is decreasing over time. The results also present a great heterogeneity of Italian provinces regarding their efficiency levels, suggesting that the traditional North-South regional divide of Italy does not apply in the tourism sector. Regarding the role of contextual factors as sources of efficiency gains, the cultural attractions, cultural public expenditures, and the rule of law increase technical efficiency of Italian provinces, whilst provinces with higher income and higher pollution receive negative gains.
By Concetta Castiglione; Università della Calabria    Davide Infante; Università della Calabria    Marta Zieba; University of Limerick
Presented by: Concetta Castiglione, Università della Calabria
Along the path to sustainability: tourism and municipal solid waste in Japan Abstract As one of the fastest growing sectors worldwide, tourism can be considered a vital contributor to economic development, and benefits of rapid tourism expansion are widely welcomed by governments of many destinations. However, the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted the ten-year growth trend characterizing the sector, which has been facing a sort of “reset”. Tourism in Japan has suffered greatly too, and it is to be expected that the Government will support its recovery, although going back to a pre-pandemic “normal” will likely revive the negative effects of “kankō kōgai” or “tourism pollution”. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the complex interdependence between municipal solid waste, one of the less investigated among all the categories of negative environmental externalities, and the development of tourism industry by focusing on Japan as case study. Main findings suggest that the development of tourism industry in particular in terms of number of foreign tourists, has an impact of the quantity of recycled municipal solid waste (RMSW), thus undermining the efforts to promote a more sustainable way of travelling and to reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities.
By Niccolò Comerio; LIUC Università Cattaneo    Fausto Pacicco; LIUC Università Cattaneo
Presented by: Niccolò Comerio, LIUC Università Cattaneo
Are they all in the same boat? Spillover effects of “natural” disasters on tourism sector: The case of Sardinian flood Abstract “Natural” disasters significantly impact various societal sectors, and the tourism industry is not less susceptible. Regions heavily reliant on tourism are particularly vulnerable to the disruptive effects of these events. While extensive research has explored the negative consequences for disaster-stricken areas, there is a gap in understanding the potential positive effects on neighbouring areas. This study addresses this knowledge gap by investigating positive spillover effects, where challenges faced by one destination lead to increased tourism in nearby or similar locations. We utilize the major Sardinia flood of 2013 as a case study. This study uses the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to analyze disaggregated tourism data for 2002-2022. The data obtained from ISTAT pertains to supra-municipal entities.
By Giulia Bettin; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Davide Di Marcoberardino; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Riccardo Persio; Università di Enna
Presented by: Davide Di Marcoberardino, Università Politecnica delle Marche
The relationship between tourism development and income inequalities: A Systematic Literature Network Analysis Abstract Although the overall extent of extreme global poverty has decreased in recent years, the level of income disparity remains historically high in several nations, continuing to raise concerns. From a theoretical perspective, the tourism sector has the potential to significantly contribute to the fight against poverty and income disparities. However, the current limited body of empirical literature has so far failed to reach a unanimous agreement regarding this potential opportunity. The aim of this article is to review existing studies which address the nexus between tourism expansion and income inequality, and to identify future research trajectories.
By Alessandra Centinaio; LIUC Università Cattaneo    Niccolò Comerio; LIUC Università Cattaneo
Presented by: Alessandra Centinaio, LIUC Università Cattaneo
Session 85: EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS II October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Pietro Terna, Università di Torino
Evaluating a Financial Education National Campaign: Experimental Evidence from Italy Abstract Basic knowledge of economics and finance is essential for making informed economic choices (Lusardi and Mitchell 2014, 2023). However, in Italy, only 44% Italians shows a basic level of knowledge of concepts such as inflation, compound interest and risk diversification . Moreover, according to PISA data (OECD, 2019) , Italy shows a statistically significant gender gap in financial literacy among 15-year-old students in 2018. As a step towards improving the financial decision-making capabilities of the general population in Italy, the Committee for the Planning and Coordination of Financial Education Activities (hereinafter referred to as the Committee) promotes a nationwide financial education information campaign. We study the causal effects of a national information campaign designed to foster the financial literacy of the Italian population. The campaign involves major media such as national television, print, and social media. To this end, we conduct a randomized encouragement experiment with a representative sample of 3,798 individuals in Italy offering monetary incentives to follow elements of the national campaign. The experiment contrasts two different edutainment treatments delivered via national television and an information treatment delivered via print, radio, and social media relative to a pure control group. A growing branch of the literature in the field of financial literacy studies the causal effect of educational interventions of varying nature and duration, aimed at specific population targets (see the recent meta-analysis by Kaiser et al., 2022 for a comprehensive review of the most rigorous studies on the topic). Yet, there is an evidence gap regarding causal effects of low-cost information campaign interventions delivered at scale via mainstream media. A growing literature in economics studies the causal effects of media exposure on individual behavior (see DellaVigna and La Ferrara 2015 for a narrative review). The outcomes domains studied are diverse and cover crime (Dahl and DellaVigna 2009), health (Vaughan et al. 2000, La Ferrara et al. 2012, Kearney and Levine 2015, Trudeau 2016, Banerjee et al. 2019, Breza et al. 2021), education, empowerment, and labor-market outcomes (Zavodny 2006, Chong and La Ferrara 2009, Jensen and Oster 2009, Ravallion et al. 2016, Bjorvatn et al. 2019, Kearney and Levine 2019), and financial decision making (Baker and George 2010, Berg and Zia, 2017). In the context of financial education, evidence from South Africa suggests that edutainment is an effective way to foster individual financial decision making (see Berg and Zia 2017) with realized treatment effects being larger, on average, than what is being found in recent meta-analyses of financial education field experiments (Miller et al. 2015, Kaiser et al. 2022). Edutainment may be seen as an especially promising avenue for financial education, as marginal costs of these interventions are generally low and the interventions appear to be well suited to operate at scale. While the available empirical evidence suggests that media (especially television and social media) can impact individual field behaviors in a meaningful way, the mechanisms leading to behavior change are less well understood. Against this backdrop, we test leading hypotheses of media impact regarding three distinct channels (a) information provision, (b) role modeling and preference change via emotional connections, and (c) increased salience and basic awareness (see La Ferrara 2016). To this end, we randomly allocate the individuals to one of four experimental conditions: (a) C: pure control (i.e., no encouragement), (b) T1: monetary encouragement to follow a popular soap-opera (“Un Posto al Sole”) with financial messaging embedded into the story line (i.e., the role-modelling channel), T2: monetary incentive to follow a popular quiz show (“L'Eredità”) with questions related to financial decision-making posed within the show (i.e., the information provision channel), and (c) T3: a monetary incentive to follow a low-intensity social and traditional media campaign relying on a female fictional character (“Sofia”) communicating simple but salient and intuitive messages about financial decision making (i.e., the salience and basic awareness channel). The main goal of the campaign is to raise awareness among the population regarding the importance of managing their personal finances by promoting multiple initiatives. The campaign, which started in October 2021 and ended in the first half of December 2021 (as shown in Figure 1), was structured in two blocks of activities: (1) a product placement campaign with the inclusion of educational references in the area of planning and financial choices as well as related to the Committee's knowledge within the soap opera "Un Posto al Sole" aired on Rai 3 and the TV quiz show "L'Eredità" aired on Rai 1; (2) a cross media communication campaign on television, radio, print, digital and social media spaces centered on the figure of Sofia, a female character who promotes knowledge and information on economic-financial issues to make more informed choices. The themes that the campaign addresses are related to the importance of financial planning (basic knowledge of concepts related to the following topics: savings, investments, financing, retirement and insurance) to make informed financial choices, deal with unexpected events, plan for the future and take care of one's finances. The main outcomes of interest are changes in knowledge of the Committee and its activities, financial knowledge, financial attitudes and behaviors. Short-term effects measured about three months after intervention suggest muted effects, on average, motivating an investigation of heterogenous treatment effects. A (pre-registered) analysis of heterogenous treatment effects suggests that through the soap opera and the game show women and those financially literate at baseline show improvements in institutional awareness; residents in the South of Italy and men increase their financial knowledge and reduce their self-assessed financial knowledge. Then, data shows that treatments delivered via television increased both institutional awareness and financial knowledge. Finally, our preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis provides significant insights for policymakers and researchers.
By Tim Kaiser; University of Kaiserslautern-Landau    Annamaria Lusardi; Standford University    Alessia Sconti; Università Bocconi    Bilal Zia; World Bank
Presented by: Alessia Sconti, Università Bocconi
The Role of Art Videos in Shaping Workplace Safety Norms: A Vignette Experiment in the Field Abstract This study explores the impact of a safety-related art video on personal and social norms related to workplace safety. We hypothesize that art video exposure increases individual sensitivity to safety issues and willingness to implement safety procedures, leading to stronger social norms. Data were collected via a vignette experiment at the 23rd Italian largest exhibition for workplace health and safety (“Ambiente Lavoro;” October, 2023; Bologna, Italy). Participants (N=358) were randomly assigned to view either a safety-related art video or a neutral video, and then asked to assess the emotions experienced. Next, they were presented with hypothetical workplace scenarios and asked how they would behave under various roles (owner; safety manager; employee). For each scenario, they had to choose safety-related strategies they would personally follow (personal norm), or they believe the majority of professionals in the workplace safety industry would opt for (social norm). Our findings reveal a mediation chain where exposure to the safety-related art video triggers negative emotions, which subsequently promote intended safety behaviors, ultimately fostering expectations regarding collective safety behaviors. This reveals an important role of visual art in shaping workplace safety norms, offering insights for both safety professionals and researchers.
By Emanuela Carbonara; Università di Bologna    Alice Guerra; Università di Bologna    Maria Rita Tagliaventi; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Alice Guerra, Università di Bologna
Breaking open the black box of the production function: an agent-based model accounting for time in production processes Abstract Traditional notions of production function do not consider the time dimension, appearing thus timeless and instantaneous. We propose an agent-based model accounting for the whole production side of the economy to unfold the production process from its very beginning, when firms receive production orders, to the delivery of the products to the market. In the model we analyze with a high-degree of details how heterogeneous firms, having labor and capital as productive factors, behave along all the realization processes of their outputs. The main focus covers: i) the heterogeneous duration of firms’ production processes, ii) the adaptive strategies they implement to adjust their choices, and iii) the possible failures which may occur due to the duration of the production. Our agent-based model is a controlled experiment: we use a virtual central planner mechanism, which acts as the demand side of the economy, to observe which firm individual behaviors and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes emerge as a reply to its different behaviors in a ceteris paribus environment. Our applied goal, then, is to discuss the role of industrial policy by modeling production processes in detail.
By Jack Birner; Università di Trento    Marco Mazzoli; Università di Genova    Eleonora Priori; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa    Pietro Terna; Università di Torino
Presented by: Eleonora Priori, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa
Session 86: KEYNES'S "ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE". A THEATRICAL ADAPTATION October 25, 2024 17:00 to 18:20 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Mario Morroni, Università di Pisa
by Riccardo Soliani with the collaboration of Patrizia Pasqui on texts by John Maynard Keynes and Maria Cristina Marcuzzo Abstract by Riccardo Soliani with the collaboration of Patrizia Pasqui on texts by John Maynard Keynes and Maria Cristina Marcuzzo
By Riccardo Soliani; Università di Genova    Hilda Ghiara; Università di Genova    Patrizia Pasqui; playwright and theatre director
Presented by: Riccardo Soliani, Università di Genova
Hilda Ghiara, Università di Genova
Patrizia Pasqui, playwright and theatre director
Session 87: KEYNES'S "ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE" AFTER 100 YEARS October 25, 2024 18:30 to 19:30 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Mario Pianta, Presidente SIE
Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute, co-editor of ‘Keynes's Economic Consequences of the Peace after 100 Years’ (edited by Patricia Clavin, Giancarlo Corsetti, Maurice Obstfeld, Adam Tooze, Cambridge University Press, 2023) Abstract keynes
By Giancarlo Corsetti; European University Institute
Presented by: Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute
Intervento Abstract Intervento di Raul Caruso
By Raul Caruso; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Raul Caruso, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Intervento Abstract Intervento di Annalisa Rosselli
By Annalisa Rosselli; Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei
Presented by: Annalisa Rosselli, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei
Session 88: VISITINPS 2 October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Monica Paiella, INPS e Università di Napoli Parthenope
Labour mobility in Times of turmoil Abstract Labour mobility in Times of turmoil
By Viviana Celli; Sapienza Università di Roma    Augusto Cerqua; Sapienza Università di Roma    Guido Pellegrini; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Viviana Celli, Sapienza Università di Roma
Internal migration in Italy. Evidence and Policy Analysis Abstract Impatto delle politiche salariali e pensionistiche e di sostegno al reddito sul divario Sud-Nord
By Gian Luca Clementi; Leonard N. Stern School of Business    Daniele Coen Pirani; University of Pittsburgh
Presented by: Gian Luca Clementi, Leonard N. Stern School of Business
A portrait of backshorers. Evidence from Italian Administrative Data Abstract We investigate the determinants and effects of the backshoring phenomenon. We develop a strategy to identify production backshoring events that draws on the literature on offshoring. We identify backshoring events as persistent negative changes in bilateral imports in the same industry as firm production that are not matched by any increase in offshoring to any other countries. According to our results, backshoring remains relatively rare, with only about 5% of all offshoring firms doing backshoring over 2008-2015. Backshoring firms, on average, are smaller, younger, less productive, less internationally exposed, and employ a higher proportion of part-time workers. They predominantly operate in medium to low-skill sectors. Backshoring is associated with a temporary increase in employment, mainly driven by temporary workers, that is quickly re-absorbed. After backshoring, value-added and turnover display a declining trend. Backshoring appears to drive a reshuffling in labour force composition from white-collar to blue-collar workers and from highly educated to less educated employees. These findings have significant implications for the desirability and the design of policies aimed at promoting backshoring.
By Luigi Benfratello; Politecnico di Torino    Davide Castellani; Università di Perugia    Anna D'Ambrosio; Politecnico di Torino    Katiuscia Lavoratori; University of Reading    Alessandro Manello; Università di Torino
Presented by: Anna D'Ambrosio, Politecnico di Torino
Map of discontent Abstract Map of discontent
By Marco Leonardi; Università di Milano    Marco Fregoni; Università Bocconi
Presented by: Marco Leonardi, Università di Milano
Session 89: TAVOLA ROTONDA SU: "RAPPORTO DRAGHI" October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula Magna Rettorato, Palazzo Bonaventura (Via Saffi, 2)
Session Chair: Giovanni Ferri, Università LUMSA
Il futuro della competitività Europea di Mario Draghi Abstract Il futuro della competitività Europea
By Roberto Cellini; Università di Catania    Maria De Paola; Università della Calabria    Mario Pianta; Scuola Normale Superiore    Roberta Rabellotti; Università di Pavia
Presented by: Roberto Cellini, Università di Catania
Maria De Paola, Università della Calabria
Mario Pianta, Scuola Normale Superiore
Roberta Rabellotti, Università di Pavia
Session 90: LA COLLOCAZIONE INTERNAZIONALE DELL'ECONOMIA ITALIANA (TAVOLA ROTONDA) October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Lelio Iapadre, Università dell'Aquila
Lo scenario economico mondiale ed europeo Abstract Lo scenario economico mondiale ed europeo
By Giorgia Giovannetti; Università di Firenze
Presented by: Giorgia Giovannetti, Università di Firenze
L’attività economica e i conti con l’estero dell’Italia Abstract L’attività economica e i conti con l’estero dell’Italia
By Lucia Tajoli; Politecnico di Milano
Presented by: Lucia Tajoli, Politecnico di Milano
Il modello di specializzazione internazionale dell’economia italiana e delle sue regioni Abstract Il modello di specializzazione internazionale dell’economia italiana e delle sue regioni
By Luca De Benedictis; Universitas Mercatorum
Presented by: Luca De Benedictis, Universitas Mercatorum
Le strategie delle imprese italiane nei mercati internazionali Abstract Le strategie delle imprese italiane nei mercati internazionali
By Giancarlo Corò; Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia
Presented by: Giancarlo Corò, Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia
Il sostegno pubblico all’internazionalizzazione delle imprese italiane Abstract Il sostegno pubblico all’internazionalizzazione delle imprese italiane
By Anna Giunta; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Anna Giunta, Università Roma Tre
Session 91: GREEN TRANSITION AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Alessandro Bellocchi, Università di Urbino
Shallow Lakes and Loading Constraints Abstract The ecological system of shallow lakes is characterized by nonlinearity and hysteresis. A Pigouvian tax is traditionally used to reconcile stakeholder interests, but the tax is not always able to guarantee an oligotrophic lake. In this paper, an environmental authority attempts to avoid eutrophic states by introducing a cap on pollutant loading. The model provides three main insights for shallow lake management. First, the adoption of a quantity constraint affects stakeholders’ decisions not only when it is binding but even when it is slack. Indeed, community may find it optimal to anticipate the impact of the latent constraint at the beginning of the planning horizon. The most undesirable consequence is that, compared to the unconstrained regime, the pollutant load can even increase in the intermediate periods before the constraint binds. Second, the pollution cap can however be used to achieve convergence towards the stable path leading to the oligotrophic steady state. Finally, the length of the plan- ning horizon affects the effectiveness of environmental policies.
By Alessandro Bellocchi; Università di Urbino    Giuseppe Travaglini; Università di Urbino
Presented by: Alessandro Bellocchi, Università di Urbino
Heterogeneous expectations in two-sector DSGE model: Does the green transition trigger waves of greenflation? Abstract In this paper, in a two-sector micro-founded DSGE model, we aim to analyze whether shocks faced by brown and green sectors may trigger waves of inflation (greenflation) depending on the anchoring of inflation expectations derived from the different degrees of risks faced by each sector. We extend the analysis of Hommes and Lustenhouver (2019) to a two-sector framework, and we introduce heterogeneous expectations into this latter and model the anchoring of inflation and output expectations as the variance of expectations around central bank targets. In addition, we push the analysis further and allow the anchoring of expectations to differ across sectors. We assume that the level of anchoring differs between sectors, depending on the risks they face with respect to the green transition. Working with expectations à la Brock et al. (2005), allows us to explicitly work with a two-sector model with heterogeneous expectations, and test whether sectoral shocks trigger waves of greenflation depending on the level of anchoring of inflation expectations in each sector. Our main findings show that shocks hitting the relatively less anchored sector trigger waves of aggregate inflation, while shocks on the relatively more anchored model produce milder effects. These results seem to indicate that holding a relatively stable transition risk may reduce the chances to suffers waves of greenflation. In terms of policy implications, this may suggest the need to target transition risks as a way to keep relatively homogeneous levels of anchoring of expectations in both sectors.
By Nicolas Blampied; Masaryk University    Alessia Cafferata; Università di Torino    Davide Radi; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Alessia Cafferata, Università di Torino
The Economic, Demographic and Ecological Transitions: A Unified Theory of Development Abstract We develop a simple framework to characterize the economic, demographic and ecological transitions that have been experienced in developed countries since the Industrial Revolution. The economic transition from persistent stagnation to sustained growth has been favoured by the demographic transition associated with the switch from a high to a low fertility regime. Such transitions have also been accompanied by an ecological transition (also referred to as the environmental Kuznets curve) in which environmental quality has first deteriorated due to the increased pollutant emissions and then improved due to growing investments in environmental preservation activities. To analyze the joint economic, demographic and ecological dynamics we extend a simple unified growth setup to account for the environmental Kuznets curve. Our model is capable of describing endogenously the switches between the three main phases observed in the long-term development experience of modern economies: a Malthusian era (low prosperity, high fertility, high environmental quality), a modern growth era (high prosperity, low fertility, low environmental quality), and a sustainable development era or climate change era (mid prosperity, low fertility, high environmental quality). The switches between regimes occur as a natural consequence of economic growth which, by relaxing resource constraints, allows for increased investments in education first and those in environmental protection then.
By Luca Gori; Università di Pisa    Simone Marsiglio; Università di Pisa    Mauro Sodini; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Luca Gori, Università di Pisa
An overlapping generations model of growth and the environment with technology choice Abstract This article considers a growth model with overlapping generations and technology choices by rational agents. The model departs from Umezuki and Yokoo (2019) augmenting the related literature by considering environmental issues à la John and Pecchenino (1994). It concentrates on the relationship between the choice of more or less capital-intensive technologies and its impact on environmental dynamics. Equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium results are complex. This is because of the trade-o¤ between the effects of the allocation of resources by the households (consumption and environmental protection) and the technology choice of the firms'owners.
By Luca Gori; Università di Pisa    Francesco Purificato; Università di Napoli Federico II    Mauro Sodini; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Mauro Sodini, Università di Napoli Federico II
Session 92: DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICS I October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Idola Spanò, Università del Molise
Childcare policy and economic growth in an OLG model Abstract We construct a new OLG model with Children's Health, Human Capital Accumulation, and R&D-based Economic Growth. We get the following results. Subsidies for child education and healthcare increase parental investment in the education and health of each child. This policy does not affect the fertility rate but accelerates the accumulation of human capital among researchers, thereby increasing the per capita GDP growth rate. 2. The fertility rate increases with the child-rearing subsidy, while the investment in education and health per child decreases. Overall, a subsidy for child-rearing creates a substitution effect in which the quantity of children is prioritized over their quality. Thus, a child-rearing subsidy has two competing effects on the per capita GDP growth rate. Firstly, it has a growth-enhancing quantity effect caused by an increase in fertility. Secondly, it has a growth-impeding quality effect caused by a decline in parental investments in education and health for each child. In Mathematica, it is possible to demonstrate that the second effect is dominant. Therefore, the child-rearing subsidy has a negative net impact on the per capita GDP growth rate. 3. As the probability of surviving into old age rises, adult consumption tends to decrease, savings tend to increase, and fertility rates tend to decline. The net impact on the per capita GDP growth rate is ambiguous, but it is likely to be positive.
By Katsufumi Fukuda; Chukyo university    Antonio Minniti; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Katsufumi Fukuda, Chukyo university
Career break around childbirth: the role of individual preferences and social norms Abstract The prolonged career break following childbirth is one of the reasons behind large motherhood penalties in terms of pay and employment opportunities. We aim to understand what is driving the duration of career break in Italy, where it often remains longer than the five-month obligatory maternity leave. The theoretical model proposed describes trade-offs about career, fertility and time devoted to children, allowing for heterogeneity in women’s education and preferences for parenting versus career. This preference is an individual characteristic which can be influenced by social norms and gender stereotypes. By relying on PLUS 2014 and 2021 surveys, we test model predictions and reveal an interesting shift: while a decade ago women characterised by higher parenting priority seemed to be more exposed to the risk of dropping out from the labour market, nowadays the desire to have kids appears to go side by side with the desire to maintain paid employment. We interpret this as a course for economic independence on the side of Italian women, especially the more educated, probably related to a shift in their priorities from parenting towards work and career. Further analysis is proposed to understand how the prevailing social norms and local characteristics could impact on career break and labour market participation.
By Debora Di Gioacchino; Sapienza Università di Roma    Emanuela Ghignoni; Sapienza Università di Roma    Alina Verashchagina; Università di Chieti-Pescara
Presented by: Alina Verashchagina, Università di Chieti-Pescara
The Effects of Parental Divorce on Children Well-Being: A Difference-in-Differences Evaluation Abstract We evaluate the impact of parental divorce on children’s socioemotional behaviour and physical health using data from the Growing Up in Ireland (GUI). to evaluate whether experiencing parental divorce impacts the well-being of children. We employ a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy and compare the average variations in outcomes experienced by children exposed to parental divorce with the average changes observed in children not exposed to it. Our results reveal the critical role of the age of children at the time of parental divorce in shaping the effects. Notably, our evidence indicate that parental divorce does not have any impacts on children if experienced between the ages of 9 and 13. However, if it takes place when children are between the ages of 13 and 17, parental divorce produces negative effects across all measured outcomes. Compared to children from intact families, these children have greater level of emotional problems by 0.6 and a 15-percentage point greater likelihood of experiencing severe emotional problems. Thei risk of being overweight increases by 16 percentage points, while their likelihood of engaging in physical activity shows a decrease of 14 percentage points. Lastly, their probability of visiting the dentist at least once a year is 11 percentage points lower. Accounting for time-invariant household’s characteristics by estimating a fixed-effects model produces similar results. A robustness check in which we assess the impact of the breakup of cohabiting parents confirms our initial findings. We also document heterogeneous effects by child’s gender, primary caregiver’s age at child’s birth and level of education, as well as household income and area of residence. Overall, our study contributes to the understanding of the role of children’s age in the process of adjusting to parental divorce.
By Idola Spanò; Università del Molise
Presented by: Idola Spanò, Università del Molise
Session 93: POLITICAL PROCESS I October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Stefano Iandolo, Università di Salerno
EDMocracy: populism and democratic dissatisfaction in Europe Abstract We study the link among populist vote, democratic expectations and democratic performances by using individual level data in 26 European countries in 2012 and 2020. We use a Heckman model to explain the determinants of both the decision to vote and voting for populists: both are predicted by the gap between democratic expectations and perceived performance (that we define as “ideal democracy gap”), while controlling for fixed effects, political and economic variables, and attitudes. These results confirm the expectancy-disconfirmation model (EDM) that links both expectations and ideal democracy gaps for twelve aspects within electoral, liberal, social and di- rect dimensions of democracy to democratic dissatisfaction. Our analysis reveals differences and similarities among voter groups and within European regions.
By Federico Favaretto; Università di Urbino    Michele Mariani; Banca d'Italia
Presented by: Federico Favaretto, Università di Urbino
The institutional drivers of cross-country differences in anti-globalization backlashes Abstract A substantial literature has addressed recent episodes of populist backlashes against (economic) globalization - in particular United Kingdom’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) and, in that same year, the election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States of America. These two cases, however, are outlier: among the wealthiest countries of the world, both Brexit and the Trump election are the only episodes (yet) of electorally successful backlashes against economic globalization. This singularity can be explained, we argue here, by the crucial role played by institutions (labor market institutions, welfare states, industrial policy) in mitigating the negative effects of trade globalization on the well-being of non-university educated workers - a key demographic in the vote for Trump and Brexit. We develop our argument constructing a composite indicator of institutional buffering against economic globalization and clustering analysis.
By Olivier Butzbach; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli    Douglas B. Fuller; Copenhagen Business School    Rosanna Pittiglio; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Presented by: Olivier Butzbach, Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli
Digging Up Trenches: Populism, Selective Mobility, and the Political Polarization of Italian Municipalities Abstract We study the effect of local exposure to populism on net population movements by citizenship status, gender, age and education level in the context of Italian municipalities. We present two research designs to estimate the causal effect of populist attitudes and policies. Initially, we use a combination of collective memory and trigger variables as an instrument for the variation in populist vote shares across national elections. Subsequently, we apply a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of electing a populist mayor on population movements. We find three converging results. First, the exposure to both populist attitudes and policies, as manifested by the vote share of populist parties in national elections or the close-election of a new populist mayor, reduces the attractiveness of municipalities and leads to larger population outflows. Second, the effect is particularly pronounced for young, female, and highly educated natives, who tend to move across Italian municipalities rather than internationally. Third, we find no effect on the foreign population. Our results highlight a foot-voting mechanism that may contribute to a political polarization in Italian municipalities.
By Luca Bellodi; Hoover Institution, Stanford University    Frédéric Docquier; Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)    Stefano Iandolo; Università di Salerno    Massimo Morelli; Università Bocconi    Riccardo Turati; Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Presented by: Stefano Iandolo, Università di Salerno
Session 94: HEALTH ECONOMICS October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Antonella Rancan, Università del Molise
Drinking influences Health, Education, and Income in South Korea from 2005 to 2021 Abstract Employing the time series data of South Korea from 2005 to 2021, regression results suggest that differences in alcohol consumption are causal to the differentials in health, education, and income. The three-way causality among health, education, and income implies that moderate alcohol consumption affects health directly and indirectly, through education and income. The coefficient stability analysis indicates that moderate drinking is positively and significantly related to health, education, and income. Given that the total income elasticity of moderate drinking is low (0.03 or 0.20), any alcohol taxes designed to discourage excessive drinking will result to welfare losses on drinkers who may not be imposing external costs by their drinking; higher prices are unfair on moderate drinkers. Campaigns implemented with the aim of influencing behavior such as anti-binge drinking campaigns will not only improve health (as primarily intended) but also education and income (and hence taxes and may be partially self-funding).
By Jae Lee; Cyedu Education Center
Presented by: Jae Lee, Cyedu Education Center
Vaccine-Preventable Diseases and Individual Behavior: Deterministic vs Stochastic Outcomes Abstract We analyze the determinants of individual vaccination decisions and their implications on the aggregate immunization coverage and disease prevalence. We show that the relation between key socio-health-economic and epidemiological parameters determines which of the several alternative outcomes may arise (unique and multiple stable equilibria, monotonic and fluctuating trajectories, chaotic dynamics and path dependency). By comparing the deterministic dynamics with their stochastic counterpart, we also show that the deterministic approximation typically employed in economic epidemiology may lead to misleading conclusions about the true stochastic outcome because of the metastable properties of the stochastic system. Public policy by affecting socio-health-economic parameters may play a fundamental role in ruling out some undesired outcomes and promoting eradication.
By Simone Marsiglio; Università di Pisa    Marco Tolotti; Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia
Presented by: Simone Marsiglio, Università di Pisa
Too hot (cold) to handle? Average temperatures, temperature shocks and mortality Abstract We estimate the causal effect of temperature shocks on human mortality using very granular Italian administrative data on daily deaths, and daily temperatures at the municipality level over the 2011-2023 period. Leveraging year-to-year variation in temperatures within days and municipalities and relying on a non-parametric specification with 2-degree bins, our study documents a U-shaped pattern for the effect of average daily temperatures on mortality. Back-of-the-envelope computations suggest that in Italy hot days with average temperatures above 22°C may be responsible for 11,000 additional deaths per year, compared to days with average temperatures in the 10-12 °C range.
By Massimiliano Bratti; Università di Milano    Enrico Lippo; Università di Milano    Massimiliano Rizzati; Università di Brescia
Presented by: Enrico Lippo, Università di Milano
Does Health Inequality Matter in Economics? At the origin of a topic Abstract This paper focuses on economists’ contributions to the study of health inequalities and its emerging as a topic from different research lines such as health economics, welfare analysis and the study of income inequality and poverty. It examines when, why, and how economists first engaged with this research field and, eventually, the influence of the pioneering literature on health inequalities on economics.
By Alessandro Perri; Università del Molise    Antonella Rancan; Università del Molise
Presented by: Antonella Rancan, Università del Molise
Session 95: FINANCE October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Marcello Signorelli, Università di Perugia
Cultural Bonds Abstract We use detailed data on security holdings by households of diverse cultural origins to analyze the effects of culture on investments in government bonds. For identification, we exploit the Italian sovereign financial crisis in a region hosting individuals of Italian and Germanic cultural origin. We uncover significant cultural differences in the investment in government bonds following the crisis. Our results suggest that these differences stem from distinct risk perceptions of these bonds, influenced by deep-rooted cultural attitudes towards debt and its excess. These insights enhance our understanding of the impact of culture on financial behavior and provide context to narratives highlighting a North-South divide within the European Union driven by differing views on public debt management.
By Michele Cascarano; Banca d'Italia    Emilia Garcia-Appendini; Norges Bank    Naciye Sekerci; KU Leuven and KWC, Lund University    Francesco Stradi; KU Leuven
Presented by: Michele Cascarano, Banca d'Italia
Collapsing Bubbles in Prices and Volumes of Cryptocurrencies Abstract According to the efficient markets hypothesis (Fama, 1970) speculative bubbles do not occur because mispricing by irrational investors is offset by arbitrage. However in real financial markets, frictions, inefficiencies and irrational behaviour of agents lead prices (and returns) to deviate from their optimal levels, bubbles accumulate and eventually burst. Cryptocurrencies are the most popular and most trade digital assets, and the literature has studied their properties. The paper looks for the presence of bubbles in the prices and volumes of the most traded cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) using monthly data from 2016 to 2023. More in details, the paper empirically investigates the explosive behaviour in prices and volumes of cryptocurrencies using unit-root tests by Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015). Monthly data smooth excess volatility of daily data. The econometric procedures compute various versions of the right-tailed Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test of unit-root to detect and date-stamp episodes of periodically collapsing bubbles in time series. Three bubble tests are considered and results detected 1) an episode of collapsing bubbles for BTC prices over the second half of 2020 and the first half of 2021; 2) an episode of collapsing bubbles in ETH prices from the end of 2020 to 2021; and 3) an episode of collapsing bubbles in XRP volumes over 2020. Differently from others in the literature, no evidence of explosive behaviour has been found for volumes of BTC and ETH and for XRP prices. Policy implication on financial stability are discussed.
By Giovanni Bruno; Università Bocconi    Chiara Oldani; Università della Tuscia    Marcello Signorelli; Università di Perugia
Presented by: Marcello Signorelli, Università di Perugia
Session 96: ECONOMICS OF GENDER October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Maria Laura Parisi, Università di Brescia
Quality of Legal Systems and Gender Equality in the European Union Abstract The quality of legal systems (QLS) affects several economic outcomes. The agendas of the EU and its members target gender inequalities as a major issue to address and solve. The QLS may influence the effectiveness of norms to translate into gender equality. Using an index of QLS and one of gender equality and their components, the paper shows the complex relationship existing between these two sets of variables. Good legal systems enhance gender equality, but not in all domains; for instance, they foster inequality in the use of time and, sometimes, in terms of health.
By Matteo Migheli; Università di Torino
Presented by: Matteo Migheli, Università di Torino
Work-Hour Instability, Occupational Mobility and Gender Abstract Although more than 20 per cent of the workforce changes their occupation every year, we still do not fully understand the mechanisms behind the observed mobility. This paper focuses on analysing the relationship between work-hour instability and occupational mobility in the U.S. labour market. I use the longitudinal dimension of the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure individuals’ intra-year work-hour variation and analyse their mobility through a balanced occupation panel. Being in the highest quartile of work-hour variation is associated with a higher mobility rate of 0.33% for men and 0.81% for women compared to an average monthly mobility rate of 1.71%. Analysing the predicted marginal effects across different household compositions suggests that the substantial gender gap can be explained by the intrahousehold specialisation of men and women. The last part of this study shows that only workers with highly volatile work hours sort themselves into more stable occupations.
By Francesco Roncone; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Francesco Roncone, Università di Bologna
Women Caring Penalty at Retirement in Europe Abstract This paper studies the effect of transitioning to retirement because of caregiving responsibilities on annual earnings among women. We find that earnings drop at retirement among women who retired to take care of a relative are almost three times the drop of women who retired for other reasons. This difference shed light on part of unexplained the lifetime earnings gender gap, considering that caregiving-retirement is a female-dominated phenomenon.
By Francesco Maura; Università Bocconi, Age-It Pe8    Paola Profeta; Università Bocconi, Age-It Pe8
Presented by: Francesco Maura, Università Bocconi, Age-It Pe8
The evolution of gender-poverty gap reveals that structural causes still hold (steady): a review of the literature Abstract Progress towards filling the gender-poverty gap is proceeding too slowly; however, the remaining hard challenges towards the goal of eliminating gender inequalities, including poverty and social exclusion gaps, have urged quite a plenitude of scholarly research in the past three decades, and beyond. This paper reviews that research and proceeds through screening the economic and sociological literature to collect theory and evidence over time, highlighting the evolution of measures, methods and determinants of the gender-poverty gap and the gender material and social deprivation gap. The latter is another concept of non-monetary poverty, in which women’s representation is higher than men’s. The initial year of collection is deliberately set to be 1990. The literature analysis is useful to answer two serious questions: why are we still finding evidence about gendered poverty in advanced economies in 2024? What are the tough economic, demographic, social and cultural factors affecting the gender gap, which are so difficult to abate?
By Maria Laura Parisi; Università di Brescia
Presented by: Maria Laura Parisi, Università di Brescia
Session 97: MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS I October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Anna Lo Prete, Università di Torino
Too much science Abstract Scientific production is growing at an unprecedented rate, but how many of the published articles are really useful to society? With an asymmetric information model, I show on what conditions scientific journals might publish more articles than would be socially efficient. Moreover, publishing all science would certainly be inefficient. These results apply to both submission fee and free submission scientific publication systems. To avoid this social inefficiency, policymakers could keep inefficient researchers out of the market by offering, for example, a subsidy or alternative employment in the public sector. In this sense, the division of academic labor between research and teaching would be helpful in streamlining the research market. The paper also discusses the effects of meritocracy and market power on the phenomenon of excess science, showing that paying all researchers the same salary or tolerating academic oligopolies can have negative consequences on scientific production.
By Giuseppe Pernagallo; Università di Torino
Presented by: Giuseppe Pernagallo, Università di Torino
The efficiency redundancy trade-off through connectivity. An analytical framework Abstract The link between redundancy and resilience has been discussed in various disciplines, with ecosystem resilience related to the trade-off between efficiency and redundancy. Scholars found that ecological networks maintain a unique balance between pathway redundancy and efficiency that allows them to be productive under normal circumstances as well as survive disruptions. Starting with the engineering conception of redundancy as an indicator of the reliability of networks and systems (Downer, 2009, Perrow, 1999), the article aims to provide a comprehensive view of the links between redundancy, resilience, and connectivity in economic systems. Since real-life complex human systems are highly interconnected, improving resilience usually implies an increase in sunk costs. We propose a simple economic framework based on a trade-off between redundancy and efficiency and discuss its policy implications in the context of bounded rationality.
By Federico Ninivaggi; Università di Macerata    Eleonora Cutrini; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Federico Ninivaggi, Università di Macerata
A Bayesian Game in the Human-AI Society: The interaction between pedestrian and two types of autonomous vehicles Abstract The development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) raises ethical concerns about whom to protect in dilemma situations where moral values are in conflict. In the literature, it is assumed that the malfunction of AVs causes the ethical dilemma and humans are superior reasoners to the AV that they behave ethically. In this paper, we assume that an immoral intention of human traffic participants causes an ethical dilemma in AV ethics. We propose a new type of reasoner for the decision-making process. This approach introduces two distinct types of AVs and addresses heterogeneous moral preferences of the traffic participants regarding the prioritization of lives in unavoidable crashes. A static Bayesian game model is used to analyze strategic interaction between pedestrians and two types of AVs. This model shows that not only does the existence of an ‘outsiders protection priority’ AV matter, but also maintaining a certain portion of it prevent human participants from exploiting AV’s safe and predictable features, thereby improving transportation efficiency in mixed traffic environments. Our work aims to develop feasible, practical, and effective mechanism designs to promote smooth and cooperative collaboration between humans and AI.
By Daehyun Yoo; Università di Pisa    Marija Slavkovik; University of Bergen
Presented by: Daehyun Yoo, Università di Pisa
Financial literacy and resilience when survey respondents prefer guessing to admitting ignorance Abstract The respondent’s propensity to guess randomly even though it is possible to answer "I do not know" is a plausible source of measurement error in assessments of financial literacy. Using data from two consecutive waves of a survey on financial literacy and resilience of Italian households during the Covid-19 pandemic we model and estimate the respondents’ propensity to guess rather than admit ignorance and find that it implies sizable probabilities of misclassification for standard financial literacy indicators. Classifying as financially literate only respondents who answer correctly in both waves of the survey yields more significant and plausible estimated coefficients of financial literacy as an explanatory variable for financial resilience: truly literate individuals have a lower probability of having difficulty to make ends meet at the end of the month and of not being able to face a mid-size emergency expense; individuals who guessed and were lucky enough to appear literate show lower financial resilience.
By Giuseppe Bertola; Università di Torino    Anna Lo Prete; Università di Torino
Presented by: Anna Lo Prete, Università di Torino
Session 98: LABOUR MARKET I October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Marco Guerrazzi, Università di Genova
The effects of increase in minimum wage on outsourced worker: evidence from Spain Abstract The present study seeks to contribute to the large strand of literature on the impact of minimum wage policy on the labour market by examining the complex interactions between minimum wage policies, outsourcing practices, and labour market outcomes. In particular, we present an assessment of the distinct wage, spillover, distributional and reallocation effects between outsourced and in-house workers, resulting from a 20% increase in the Spanish statutory minimum wage in 2019. Our empirical approach is based on the standard diff-in-diff estimator applied to Spanish matched employer-employee administrative data sourced from social security and tax records. More precisely we focus on domestic outsourcing, that is the delegation of certain business functions to external providers, such as other firms or autonomous workers, leading to a fragmented production landscape within a given country (Weil, 2014). The benefits of outsourcing often come at a cost for the workers involved in such arrangements. Through outsourcing practices, firms act as architects of inequalities (Grimshaw et al., 2017). As rents from leading companies are no more shared along the entire value chain, subcontracted workers, who are not employed by the leading firms, do not receive part of the value added produced (Appelbaum, 2017; Goldschmidt and Schmieder, 2017) and enjoy lower job quality overall. In the present work, workers are defined as outsourced based on their main economic activity (Goldschmidt and Schmieder, 2017; Fana et al., 2024). As the association between outsourcing and working conditions varies across sectors (Jörg Flecker, 2010), our approach has the advantage of identifying as outsourced sectors both knowledge-intensive and less-knowledge-intensive services. We observe that the 20% increase in the national minimum wage is fully transmitted to the Spanish workers, but with some significant differences between outsourced and in-house workers. Indeed, both in terms of monthly wages and in wage growth, outsourced workers seem to benefit around 2% more compared to the in-house workers in the following twelve months. Our findings also reveal the existence of spillover effects extending up to the median of the wage distribution, and that the policy reduces wage inequality without significant differences in the distributional impact of the minimum wage between the two groups of workers, therefore benefiting the whole economy. However, he short term, there exists a small short-term negative employment effect, but non-significant differences between outsourced and in-house workers are detected. Finally, in line with most recent literature, we study reallocation patterns induced by minimum wage increase. Our evidence show that outsourced and non-outsourced workers present different reallocation patterns. Specifically, outsourced workers are more likely to change employer within the same sector and experience an improvement of contractual arrangement toward more stable contract although hours worked decline compared to workers employed in non-outsourced sectors.
By Marta Fana; Joint Research of the Centre European Commission    Luca Giangregorio; Università Roma Tre    Amaia Palencia-Esteban; London School of Economics and Political Science
Presented by: Luca Giangregorio, Università Roma Tre
The Scarring Effects of Firm Shutdowns on Workers’ Wages: A Distributional Perspective Abstract To shed light on the differential impact of firm shutdowns across the distribution of workers, we adopt the wage determination framework of Bonhomme, Lamadon, and Manresa (2019) to uncover workers’ unobserved types. Worker types relate to workers’ position in the wage distribution: all else equal, a higher type implies higher wages. We use the universe of social security records of Italy’s Veneto region, one of the leading Italian regional economies, from 1975 to 2001. Based on this rich matched employer-employee data, we measure wage losses after firm shutdowns for different worker types using an event-study framework. Aggregate wage losses directly after a shutdown are 4.5% of the daily wage, which almost halves after six years. This aggregate trajectory masks stark heterogeneity: top-type workers face initial losses of 12.4%, which remain persistent even after six years. Conversely, initial losses for bottom-type workers are 2.6%, which become statistically insignificant after six years. We identify losses in firm tenure as the main source of wage reductions following the shutdown of a worker’s firm. Finally, we show that the AKM model (Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis, 1999), the current workhorse model of wage determination, does not capture this heterogeneity and can lead to misleading conclusions regarding the sources of wage losses.
By Johannes Seebauer; DIW Berlin    Matteo Targa; Università Roma Tre    Johannes Koenig; DIW Berlin    Maximilian Longmuir; City University of New York
Presented by: Matteo Targa, Università Roma Tre
The evolution of bargaining position of workers in wage negotiation in Italy Abstract The relative strength of workers in wage bargaining can be influenced by various factors, the evolution of which, while not deterministic, helps explain dynamics in monetary and real wages and other aspects of the employment relationship. In analyzing these aspects, it is essential to recognize the crucial interaction among labor market characteristics, economic factors, and societal elements. Key among these factors are the regulations governing the labor market, determining the ease or difficulty of dismissals and the rules regarding fixed-term and part-time employment contracts. These factors play a paramount role in shaping the bargaining power of workers and unions. For instance, a higher prevalence of fixed-term workers is associated with reduced bargaining power, as employers can leverage the 'threat' of not renewing contracts. The degree of unionization is another determining factor in the balance of power. More unionized workers often have stronger bargaining positions, supported by a well-organized union network with access to tools such as strikes, collective and individual disputes, and legal services. The degree of unionization is influenced by variables like the prevalence of fixed-term contracts. Crucial in Italy, characterized by the absence of a minimum wage law, is the coverage of collective bargaining, which varies significantly over time and across sectors. Additionally, the sectoral distribution of employment and the prevalence of different contract types contribute to variations in the degree of unionization. These aspects, alongside unemployment and underemployment, influence the bargaining power of workers relative to employers. This, in turn, reflects in the conditions established in various rounds of collective bargaining, primarily determining components of worker remuneration. This paper will describe the evolution of key variables in recent decades, particularly before and after the outbreak of the pandemic crisis. The first paragraph examines changes in the distribution of employment over time, focusing on sectors and contract types. The second paragraph explores collective bargaining, while the third focuses on unionization. The fourth paragraph describes the evolution of wage conflicts in Italy, and the fifth addresses the evolution and effects of Employment Protection Legislation (EPL).
By Davide Romaniello; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli    Luigi Salvati; Università Telematica "Pegaso"
Presented by: Luigi Salvati, Università Telematica "Pegaso"
Wage Bargaining and Capital Accumulation: A Dynamic Version of the Monopoly Union Model Abstract In this paper, I explore the relationship between wage bargaining and capital accumulation by developing a differential game in which a monopolistic union sets the wage of its members by taking as given the optimal employment strategy of a representative firm and the way in which capital is evaluated over time. Under the assumption that investment is given by a constant share of produced output, I show that a meaningful open-loop Stackelberg equilibrium requires the union to be more patient than the firm. Moreover, relying on some numerical simulations, I show that the model predicts a stable union wage premium.
By Marco Guerrazzi; Università di Genova
Presented by: Marco Guerrazzi, Università di Genova
Session 99: MONETARY POLICY I October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Lucio Gobbi, Università di Trento
Monetary Policy and Consumer Inflation Expectation: the case of Euro Area Abstract This paper studies the influences of monetary policy surprises on the inflation expectation of consumers in the Euro Area, and three largest member countries: Germany, France, and Italy. The analysis employs the Bayesian VAR models over the time series from January 1999 to December 2021. Policy shocks are distinguished between policy rate, forward guidance and quantitative easing and identified by means of high-frequency external instruments. The findings imply the success of ECB in steering consumer inflation expectation: expansionary policies associated with policy interest rates and quantitative easing tend to raise the consumer inflation expectation for the next 12 months in the medium term. The similar patterns are observed in Germany and France. Additionally, the results also highlight the presence of 'Delphic' guidance across the Euro Area. A forward guidance associated with a decrease in future policy rates puts downward revision on the consumer inflation expectation in the short and medium run.
By Nga Tran; Kiel Institute for Statistics and Econometrics
Presented by: Nga Tran, Kiel University
Monetary policy tightening in response to uncertain stagflationary shocks: a model-based analysis Abstract We evaluate the ‘robust’ monetary policy rate tightening in response to a stagflationary shock of uncertain magnitude using a medium-scale New Keynesian model. Under uncertainty, the tightening should generally be milder than under no-uncertainty in order to ‘perform well’ in different states of the world. The results hold true especially when financial tensions materialize under an excessive tightening of monetary policy. On the contrary, if the policy response to large stagflationary shocks is perceived as insufficient in a context of high inflation persistence, then the tightening of monetary policy should be as strong as in the case of no uncertainty.
By Anna Bartocci; Banca d'Italia    Alessandro Cantelmo; Banca d'Italia    Alessandro Notarpietro; Banca d'Italia    Massimiliano Pisani; Banca d'Italia
Presented by: Massimiliano Pisani, Banca d'Italia
Learning from Prices and Optimal Policy Design Abstract When setting their price, firms observe their productivity as well as a signal of a utility shock. Monetary policy must be timely implemented, and hence must be conditioned on prices only. The presence of idiosyncratic productivity tilts the way firm use their information -- whose acquisition is endogenous -- and hampers the informative content of the price level. From the perspective of a benevolent policy authority, a tension arises between the need of inducing the provision of the information required to efficiently accommodate the aggregate shocks, and the benefit of letting firms take advantage of their idiosyncratic productivity to streamline their output. The policy maker can implement a fiscal subsidy -- dealing with the inefficiencies arising from the presence of market power and from the nominal rigidity -- either conditioned on aggregate shocks or adapted to current prices. We find that, conditioning on the fundamentals is required to induce the efficient usage of information as well as the efficient acquisition of information. By contrast, when both the monetary and fiscal policy must be adapted to the price vector, we obtain only efficiency in the usage of information.
By Gianluca Femminis; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Giulio Piccirilli; Universitas Mercatorum
Presented by: Giulio Piccirilli, Universitas Mercatorum
When Should Central Banks Fear Inflation Expectations? Abstract When inflation picks up, central banks are most concerned that the de-anchoring of inflation expectations and the ignition of wage-price spirals will trigger inflation dynamic instability. However, such scenarios do not materialize in the standard New Keynesian theoretical framework for monetary policy. Using a simulative model, we show that they can materialize upon introducing in particularly strong doses boundedly-rational expectations that de-anchor endogenously, as they are updated according to the actual inflation process, with indexed wages, and persistent inflation shocks. In these cases, a more hawkish central-bank stance on inflation expands the stability region of the system, which however remains bounded. On the other hand, the critical combinations of factors that trigger instability can be regarded as extreme in empirical terms, while in "normal times" the system is resilient to shocks and expectation de-anchoring even with more dovish monetary policy.
By Lucio Gobbi; Università di Trento    Ronny Mazzocchi; European Parliament    Roberto Tamborini; Università di Trento
Presented by: Lucio Gobbi, Università di Trento
Session 100: EMISSIONS ECONOMICS AND POLICY October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Claudia Nardone, Sapienza Università di Roma
Emissions Abatement and the EU ETS: Testing the Porter Hypothesis Abstract Do stricter environmental regulations encourage innovation? This study explores the Porter hypothesis using the Italian data on industrial plant covered by the European Emission Trading Scheme. The heterogeneous shock on free allowances provision in the beginning of the third phase is an instrument to assess the differential impact of this cut on industrial sectors. This work examines the consequences of reduced free allowances for certain sectors in contrast to those that maintain their existing allocation. By using an indicator of emission intensity based on quantity, this study shows that the presence of free allowances foster the entry of dirtier producers in the market: “reverse Porter hypothesis”.
By Antonia Pacelli; Toulouse School of Economics and INRAE
Presented by: Antonia Pacelli, Toulouse School of Economics and INRAE
Greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth: an empirical analysis across multiple economies Abstract Given the potential negative implications of climate change on economic activities, analyzing growth policies in relation to gas emissions and global warming becomes relevant again. In light of that, this paper investigates the intricate interplay between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions for BRICS countries, the European Union, and the United States by a fixed effect regression model employing data from 1990 to 2022. The aim is to examine the influence on Real GDP of different factors including renewable energy consumption, foreign investment, urbanization, oil rents, carbon emissions, and nitrous oxide emissions. Main results suggest significant shifts in the impact of these variables on GDP. Notably, a discernible inverse relationship emerges between Real GDP and nitrous oxide and carbon emissions, underscoring the pivotal role of emission reduction in fostering economic progress. Eventually, a parallel trend is observed in the case of renewable energy, emphasizing the urgent need for a swift transition away from non-renewable sources. The paper reveals policy implications: integrating environmental regulations with economic strategies could help nations grow their economies while keeping emissions low; moreover promoting renewable energy use, and encouraging collaboration among developing countries to achieve international goals for sustained economic and environmental progress, would be recommended.
By Francesco Busato; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Claudia Ulloa Severino; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Monica Varlese; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Claudia Ulloa Severino, Università di Napoli Parthenope
Investigating the price determinants of the European Emission Trading System: a non-parametric approach Abstract The European carbon market plays a pivotal role in the European Union's ambitious target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Understanding the intricacies of factors influencing European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) market prices is paramount for effective policy making and strategy implementation. We propose the use of the Information Imbalance, a recently introduced non-parametric measure quantifying the degree to which a set of variables is informative with respect to another one, to study the relationships among macroeconomic, economic, uncertainty, and energy variables concerning EU ETS prices. Our analysis shows that in Phase 3 commodity related variables such as the ERIX index are the most informative to explain the behaviour of the EU ETS market price. Transitioning to Phase 4, financial fluctuations take centre stage, with the uncertainty in the EUR/CHF exchange rate emerging as a crucial determinant. These results reflect the disruptive impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis in reshaping the importance of the different variables. Beyond variable analysis, we also propose to leverage the Information Imbalance to address the problem of mixed-frequency forecasting, and we identify the weekly time scale as the most informative for predicting the EU ETS price. Finally, we show how the Information Imbalance can be effectively combined with Gaussian Process regression for efficient nowcasting and forecasting using very small sets of highly informative predictors.
By Cristiano Salvagnin; Università di Brescia    Aldo Glielmo; Banca d'Italia    Maria Elena De Giuli; Università di Pavia    Antonietta Mira; USI e Università dell'Insubria
Presented by: Cristiano Salvagnin, Università di Brescia
The impact of the European Emission Trading Scheme on labor productivity Abstract Examining the impact of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) on firm performance is crucial for understanding the real consequences of one of the most important European environmental policies. This study investigates the effects of the EU-ETS on various indicators of Italian manufacturing firms’ performance, such as labor productivity, revenues, employment and value added on sales ratio. Utilizing company data from 2006 to 2020, we employ a novel Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach with multiple periods and multiple groups, drawing on the methodology proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021). The objective is to assess the causal impact of the EU ETS across three treatment groups corresponding to the three entry points into the regulatory system: first phase (2006), second phase (2008), and third phase (2013). The comparison is made against firms in the same sectors that were never subject to the regulation, serving as the control group. Our results reveal that the EU ETS fosters growth in labor productivity, albeit with heterogeneous effects depending on firms' entry timing. There's a dynamic effect observed, with longer exposure correlating to greater productivity gains. However, this positive effect seems to be driven more by workforce reduction than output augmentation, potentially due to outsourcing. Negative effects on the value-added-to-sales ratio suggest a shift towards a more fragmented production structure.
By Roberto Basile; Università dell'Aquila    Claudia Nardone; Sapienza Università di Roma    Rosanna Pittiglio; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli    Filippo Reganati; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Claudia Nardone, Sapienza Università di Roma
Session 101: PUBLIC PROCUREMENT October 26, 2024 9:00 to 10:20 Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Alessandra Scandura, Università di Torino
Input Procurement: Theory and Evidence Abstract In this paper, we study input procurement issues from both a theoretical and an empirical point of view. In a two-parties model with incomplete contracts, we analyse the relation between an input supplier and a final good producer and discuss the optimality of competing ownership regimes. In doing so, we widen the traditional Property Rights Theory of the firm dichotomy between integration and non-integration, and allow for joint control. According to our model, investment spillovers increase the likelihood of joint control over traditional regimes. For the purpose of the empirical analysis, we employ new proprietary firm-level survey data of a stratified sample of Italian enterprises. Probit and multinomial probit estimates confirm our theoretical predictions in that input procurement is a matter of investment spillovers. In particular, the higher the relevance of investment spillovers in the input supplier-final good producer relation, the more likely the choice of joint control over integration and/or non-integration. This result is robust to different measures, alternative specifications and robustness checks.
By Pietro De Ponti; Università di Bologna    Valeria Gattai; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Piergiovanna Natale; Università di Milano-Bicocca
Presented by: Pietro De Ponti, Università di Bologna
Experts and Arbitration Outcomes: Insights from Public Procurement Contract Disputes Abstract We explore the use of experts in arbitration proceedings by analyzing public procurement contract disputes in Italy. Balancing cost with accuracy, participants to a contract select arbitration when speedy dispute resolution is valued highly. Alternative dispute resolution mechanisms tend to give appointed arbitrators discretion in how to proceed. Consequently, principal-agent problems can arise. Using an Inverse-probability-weighted approach, we show that the use of an expert causes a slowing down of the case resolution, without having an effect on the outcome of the dispute nor resolving uncertainty as measured by unanimous decisions by the panel of arbitrators. Conflict resolution mechanism designers should consider the alignment of incentives between the disputants and the service providers.
By Claudio Detotto; University of Corsica    Riccardo Marselli; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Bryan McCannon; Illinois Wesleyan    Marco Vannini; Università di Sassari
Presented by: Claudio Detotto, University of Corsica
Are business candidates more likely to use corruption in electoral campaigns? Abstract What kind of candidates benefit from corruption and favoritism in public procurement? While it is conceivable that candidates with ties to local businesses would be more likely to seek to benefit their business connections through the procurement process to gain advantages, this study suggests that politicians with business ties are not more likely than other politicians to gain benefits using visible procurement deceit in Italy. We use new data on the properties of local-level candidates running in the 2018 Italian elections and data on corruption risks in public procurement. Corruption risks in public procurement increase in the run-up to elections, but our Regression discontinuity design (RDD) shows that the spike in pre-election does not seem to benefit candidates with ties to local business more than ones who lack such ties. These findings may be consistent with two alternative accounts. First, politicians’ ties to business do not matter for the extent to which they use and gain electorally from corruption. Alternatively, it suggests that politicians with ties to local businesses are oftentimes so well-embedded and well-versed in procurement practices and expectations that they are simply more successful when it comes to pre-bid collusion. This would be particularly true for politicians that become “local strongmen”. Our preliminary findings find indirect support for this latter account since this result is driven the South of Italy, that are known to struggle with rampant corruption. Our results suggest that there is room for nuance in the interpretation of public procurement as a corruption risk indicator and that more work is needed to understand the business ties-corruption nexus.
By Saverio Di Giorno; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Monika Bauhr; University of Gothenburg    Francesco Busato; Università di Napoli Parthenope
Presented by: Saverio Di Giorno, Università di Napoli Parthenope
Public Green Demand and Green Innovation: Evidence from US Firms Abstract Achieving net-zero emissions alongside sustained economic growth necessitates unprecedented innovation efforts. Demand serves as a pivotal driver in this endeavor. This paper presents novel evidence concerning the relationship between public procurement for green products and services (GPP) and firm innovation. GPP widens market niches for new green goods and accelerates the adaptation of conventional goods to meet more rigorous environmental standards. This, in turn, fosters the creative response of the firm, stimulating innovation in both new green products and new green processes. The empirical analysis focuses on US publicly listed innovative companies from 2004 to 2016. The results demonstrate that increases in GPP stimulate green innovation overall, particularly process-related. Moreover, we observe that this is more pronounced in large and incumbent firms, as well as in firms with substantial knowledge and organizational capital. These results provide valuable insights for designing effective policy frameworks to expedite the green transition while ensuring continued economic growth.
By Fabrizio Fusillo; Università di Torino    Gianluca Orsatti; Università di Torino    Alessandra Scandura; Università di Torino
Presented by: Alessandra Scandura, Università di Torino
Session 102: THE YEARS OF HIGH THEORY: CLAUDIO NAPOLEONI AND AUGUSTO GRAZIANI SINCE THE 1950s UNTIL THE 1980s October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Riccardo Bellofiore, Università di Bergamo
Augusto Graziani and Claudio Napoleoni: the nature and the dynamics of capitalism Abstract Augusto Graziani and Claudio Napoleoni were no followers. They cultivated original heterodoxies, even with respect to the dominating heterodoxies of their times. At a time when the dominant heterodox approach considered the condition of a uniform rate of profits as a necessary pre-requisite of good economic theory, Graziani argued that such condition would make economic dynamics impossible, because it would prevent resources from moving away from old, stagnating sectors towards new, more productive sectors offering better investment opportunities. At a time when heterodox approaches renounced labour embodied as an unnecessary hurdle to the road to a sound theory of value, Napoleoni re-established its function as a theory of alienation determined by the subsumption of labour to capital. Their approaches were rooted in their respective, deep visions of capitalism and its dynamics.
By Lilia Costabile; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Lilia Costabile, Università di Napoli Federico II
Two heretics: Graziani, Napoleoni, and ‘style of economic reasoning’ of the Italian tradition Abstract Augusto Graziani and Claudio Napoleoni were two eminent (and probably the most radical) representatives of an Italian ‘style of economic reasoning’ in their time (among the others, we can just recall Pasinetti and Sylos Labini). Like in Marx and Schumpeter, a synergy was built between the positive construction of economic theory, on the one hand, and the history of economic analysis, on the other. This interplay was essential in research and teaching, and for an assessment of economic policy. This common style, even in their different and sometimes alternative positions on many issues, not only pushed them to engage into a dialogue with the whole spectrum of economics, but also led both to be heretics within their own heterodoxy: in the case of Graziani, ‘post-Keynesianism’; in the case of Napoleoni, ‘Marxism’. History of economic thought was felt to be contemporary history: not only useful, but a unique and irreplaceable tool since it reveals the inner problematic nature of the inherited theoretical status of economic ‘science’. I am convinced that the discussion of their works is still essential to develop an out-of-equilibrium theory of capitalism as a monetary and structurally unstable production economy. An example of their methodological stance will be given for both authors.
By Riccardo Bellofiore; Università di Bergamo
Presented by: Riccardo Bellofiore, Università di Bergamo
La teoria marxiana del valore nel dibattito italiano: una ricostruzione analitica Abstract Il presente contributo fornisce una ricostruzione del dibattito che si è sviluppato nella seconda metà del Novecento attorno alla teoria marxiana del valore, soffermandosi sui contributi di alcuni importanti economisti italiani, tra cui Claudio Napoleoni ed Augusto Graziani. A partire dalle riflessioni di Napoleoni, il lavoro affronta le (asserite) fatali conseguenze dovute al ‘fallimento’ della cosiddetta trasformazione dei valori in prezzi per la teoria dello sfruttamento di Marx. Al contrario, si mostra come, almeno secondo la riflessione di Augusto Graziani, la teoria marxiana del valore potrebbe essere ‘riabilitata’ proprio in quanto teoria macroeconomica dello sfruttamento capitalistico, laddove la determinazione microeconomica dei prezzi relativi rimane sullo sfondo. Il contributo offre una breve rassegna dei contributi che, dopo Graziani, hanno proposto un’interpretazione della teoria del valore marxiana come teoria macroeconomica della valorizzazione capitalistica. Nondimeno, si sottolinea come, sulla scorta della teoria del circuito monetario dello stesso Graziani, sia stata fornita da alcuni autori una ‘ricostruzione’ della teoria marxiana in grado di tenere espressamente conto della natura monetaria, oltre che di classe, del capitalismo in un contesto di moneta-credito, in parziale divergenza con vecchie e nuove interpretazioni.
By Andrea Coveri; Università di Urbino
Presented by: Andrea Coveri, Università di Urbino
Session 103: FIRMS AND BANKS IN THE TWIN TRANSITION: INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, AND REGIONAL SUSTAINABILITY (with Centro Studi delle Camere di Commercio "Guglielmo Tagliacarne") October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Marco Cucculelli, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Beyond borders: assessing the impact of digital and green innovation on firms' export capabilities Abstract This paper explores the dynamics of innovation and internationalization within the Italian business landscape, focusing on the role of digital and green innovation in shaping firm’s export behavior. Utilizing empirical data from Italian manufacturing and service sectors, we investigate how digital and green innovation individual influence firms’ propensity to initiate export activities and enhance export volumes. Our findings suggest that both forms of innovation serve as critical enablers for firms entering export markets and as activators for increasing export levels. Digital innovation facilitates market entry by overcoming traditional barriers and enhancing operational efficiency, while green innovation fosters competitiveness through sustainable practices and alignment with environmental trends. Importantly, the combined effect of digital and green innovations amplifies firms' export performance, underscoring the significance of integrating technological and sustainable strategies in internationalization efforts. These insights have implications for practitioners and policymakers, highlighting the importance of supporting digital and green innovation initiatives to bolster national export competitiveness in a rapidly evolving global economy.
By Jordana Graciano; LUISS Guido Carli    Valentina Meliciani; LUISS Guido Carli    Marco Pini; Centro Studi delle Camere di Commercio Guglielmo Tagliacarne    Roberto Urbani; LUISS Guido Carli
Presented by: Marco Pini, Centro Studi delle Camere di Commercio Guglielmo Tagliacarne
Foreign ownership and environmental disclosure: Empirical evidence from Italian medium-sized companies Abstract This study examines the signalling value of environmental disclosure in Italian unlisted medium-sized manufacturing firms to address information asymmetry issues. Leveraging information from a unique survey, we explore how foreign ownership influences the information asymmetry through environmental disclosure practices compared to Italian ownership. Findings reveal that foreign-owned firms exhibit a higher likelihood of signalling, particularly for institutional owners, while Italian-owned businesses, especially family firms, show lower disclosure needs due to strong stakeholder ties. Moreover, debt exposure and growth prospects amplify the environmental disclosure need for foreign-owned companies but not for Italian-owned ones, in which different mechanisms occur.
By Marco Cucculelli; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Noemi Giampaoli; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Matteo Renghini; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Marco Cucculelli, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Corporate Governance and Fossil Fuel Divestment: Insights from the Banking Sector Abstract This study examines the determinants of fossil fuel divestment commitments among banks, focusing on the influence of corporate governance characteristics. Specifically, we investigate how board size, gender diversity, and board independence impact a bank's likelihood to publicly commit to divesting from fossil fuels. Using a logistic instrumental variable (IV) regression approach, we address potential endogeneity concerns and identify causal relationships. The logistic IV method allows us to properly handle binary outcomes, with the dependent variable indicating whether a bank has made a public commitment to fossil fuel divestment. Our analysis controls for key financial variables such as Return on Assets (ROA), total assets, and leverage to isolate the effect of governance characteristics. The data set comprises a panel of banks from 2010 to 2023. The findings provide insights into the corporate governance factors that drive environmental, social, and governance (ESG) commitments in the banking sector, offering valuable implications for policymakers and stakeholders interested in promoting sustainable finance practices.
By Rosella Carè; University of Waterloo    Massimiliano Cerciello; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Simone Taddeo; CMCC e Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia
Presented by: Simone Taddeo, CMCC e Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia
Cooperative banking as a driver of regional sustainable development in Italy: Panel data evidence Abstract This study delves into the role of cooperative banks in promoting sustainable development across Italian provinces, utilizing a comprehensive panel analysis covering the period from 2000 to 2022. The research compares the impact of cooperative banks with that of traditional banks, highlighting the unique effectiveness of cooperative banks in supporting local environmental initiatives. The findings reveal that, owing to their participatory governance structure and strong territorial ties, cooperative banks demonstrate a greater inclination to back projects that advance environmental sustainability. This commitment translates into a distinctive ability to address the specific needs of local communities, significantly contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals. The study makes a substantial contribution to the ongoing discourse on sustainable finance, suggesting that the cooperative banking model could serve as a pivotal tool for fostering sustainable progress within the Italian context, offering valuable insights for future policy formulation.
By Giuseppe Terzo; LUISS Guido Carli
Presented by: Giuseppe Terzo, LUISS Guido Carli
Session 104: DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICS II October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Chiara Mussida, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Within-couple inequality and breakup outcomes: a comparative perspective in the EU Abstract This paper investigates the causal impact of separation on equivalized household income trajectories in the aftermath of the dissolution for men and women. The main hypothesis is that gender inequality after separation is driven by pre-separation within-couple inequality in terms of personal endowments of income, earnings, and wealth. Using longitudinal data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) in 2014 and 2017 for four countries and a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences regression, I found that a separation penalty exists for women in all countries, except Spain. Moreover, the impact of separation varies with the degree of pre-separation within-couple inequality in personal income and earnings. The gender asymmetry is especially noticeable among secondary earners, regardless of gender. Moreover, I found that the causal impact of separation is influenced by institutional features.
By Francesca Isola; Università di Siena
Presented by: Francesca Isola, Università di Siena
Demographic Change and Optimal Insurance Mix of Life-Cycle Risk Abstract We address the question of optimal insurance against idiosyncratic productivity and health risk over the life-cycle and how the design depends on the demographic structure. For the analysis we develop a quantitative overlapping generations model. During the working period, households face a progressive income tax code, which encompasses contributions to social insurance, notably unemployment insurance and retirement insurance. In retirement, households receive a, potentially, progressive pension income, which is partially linked to past earnings. We parsimoniously parameterize tax, transfer and pension schemes and retirement age and optimize jointly over this entire system of life-cycle insurance and redistributive instruments. We apply the model to study optimal insurance in light of ongoing demographic change processes in Germany.
By Peter Haan; DIW Berlin, FU Berlin    Osman Kucuksen; Hacettepe University    Alexander Ludwig; Goethe University Frankfurt, CEPR    Matthias Schön; Deutsche Bundesbank
Presented by: Matthias Schön, Deutsche Bundesbank
A wider look at female employment and childbirth in Italy Abstract We explore the female employment-fertility relationship for a wide period, 2004-2019 in Italy. We adopt a dynamic approach when modelling both employment and fertility choices and allow for possible feedback effects from employment to future fertility decision. We also consider different employment outcomes and subgroup analysis. Our findings suggest childbirth has reduced the probability of female employment. The childbirth effect, however, evolved over time, and the related negative impact has increased after the Great Recession and the application of austerity measures. Full-time and permanent jobs were greatly affected by childbirth than part-time and temporary employment. Childbirth increases the probability of being a high-pay worker, indicating a greater ease to combine career and family, possibly because of the better accessibility of childcare services. Childcare tends to increase work intensity, suggesting a compensative role of other family-members in terms of household labor supply. Sub-groups analysis reveals negative childbirth-effect is stronger for younger females, in the North-Centre regions, among non-poor household and in presence of employed husbands.
By Chiara Mussida; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Dario Sciulli; Università di Chieti-Pescara
Presented by: Chiara Mussida, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Session 105: POLITICAL PROCESS II October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Pietro Panizza, Università di Napoli Federico II
The election campaign for parliament in the age of the Internet Abstract This study examines whether the use of Internet-based communication technologies during election campaigns helps candidates to be elected to parliament and improves their perception of being able to win national elections. Using data from the 2013 Italian Candidate Survey, estimation results show that the use of a personal website and Twitter during the electoral race significantly improves candidates' perceptions of winning nationwide election and their likelihood of being elected to parliamentary office.
By Raffaella Santolini; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Presented by: Raffaella Santolini, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Administrative capacity and speed of public spending Abstract Local institutions are crucial in fostering economic progress. This article assesses the impact of administrative capacity on the speed of public spending at several levels of government. Administrative capacity serves as a foundation for institutional quality and plays a critical role in enhancing the efficiency of local institutions in providing public services and managing finances. Using a sample of about 60,000 public projects co-funded by European funds in the period 2010-2019, the empirical analysis considers ‘internal’ and ‘external’ administrative factors contributing to spending speed. Project duration is used as an inverse proxy for spending speed. Preliminary results highlight the fundamental role of administrative capacity and institutional quality in shaping spending speed, with administrative capacity mediating the impact of institutional quality.
By Alfredo Del Monte; Università di Napoli Federico II    Alessandro De Iudicibus; Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli    Sara Moccia; Università di Napoli Federico II    Luca Pennacchio; Università di Napoli Parthenope
Presented by: Sara Moccia, Università di Napoli Federico II
Country vs. Music: Strategic Incentives for Competing Voters Abstract This study evaluates the strategic proofness of the positional voting system through an analysis of the Eurovision Song Contest and a dataset from Spotify’s top 200 streamed songs. It benchmarks the extent of sincere voting within the Eurovision framework against wider public musical preferences. The findings indicate a strategic manipulation in the Final, particularly among industry experts. This highlights the impact of information availability on voting patterns and coordination costs among actors. This paper argues that due to its nuanced approach to capturing voter preferences, positional voting could serve as an effective method for preference aggregation in large-scale elections. This approach can potentially alleviate issues of extremism and fragmentation in politically polarized settings, offering a more balanced representation of electoral choices.
By Pietro Battiston; Università di Pisa    Marco Magnani; Università di Parma    Dimitri Paolini; Università di Sassari    Luca Rossi; Università di Parma
Presented by: Dimitri Paolini, Università di Sassari
Tenure, Accountability and Electoral Selection: Evidence from Italy Abstract This paper investigates the impact of a 2014 reform that extended term limits for mayors of Italian towns with population under 3,000 residents, transitioning from two to three consecutive terms. Exploiting the fact that the reform was not anticipated by incumbent second-term mayors, I estimate separately three main channels through which this policy shift may have impacted local government performance: mayors’ tenure, electoral accountability, and electoral selection. My results indicate that the overall effect of the reform on voters’ welfare was negative. In particular, I uncover a negative tenure effects in the speed of payments in investment spending and in the supply of general administrative service. Specifically, third-term mayors exhibit a decline in performance compared to their second-term. A possible explanation for this performance drop is a decrease in motivation that arise during the concluding stretch of extended tenures as mayor of a small municipality. In such contexts, the mayor’s job tend to become repetitive and less engaging over time. My findings can be of relevance for policymakers contemplating similar reforms for small subnational local governments.
By Pietro Panizza; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Pietro Panizza, Università di Napoli Federico II
Session 106: MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS II October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Saverio M. Fratini, Università Roma Tre
Price competition and network externality in a vertical differentiated market Abstract The phenomenon of conspicuous consumption concerns the domain of consumer behavior and its relationship with social motivations. The theory suggests that individuals’ consumption decisions are not solely driven by personal needs and preferences but are also influenced by the consumption choices of others, resulting in what is known as consumption or network externalities. These effects can be framed within what Leibenstein (1950) called the nonfunctional demand types, namely the part of the demand that does not pertain to the good’s qualities. Conspicuous consumption also interacts with income distribution and wealth disparities. As individuals strive to showcase their affluence through luxury goods and services, income inequality can be perpetuated. The pursuit of conspicuous consumption by the affluent segments of society can lead to resource allocation imbalances, as a significant portion of income and resources is directed towards non-essential goods. This dynamic can have implications for social welfare, equality, and the overall distribution of wealth in an economy. In this paper, we focus on interaction between distribution of the consumers WTP, quality differential, and strength of the externality effect linked to conspicuous consumption. In particular, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a Nash equilibrium in the price stage of a vertically differentiated duopoly game where the willingness to pay for high quality depends on the size of the market for high quality goods. Our setting can capture the situation in which high-quality goods are recognized as such and showcased by consumers that bought them, triggering the desire of other consumers. The effect does not need large differences in quality to lead to our results. In particular, we find that if the Esteban elasticity of the density of the distribution of income is higher than 1, then a high-quality good will be treated as a Veblen good in our setting, namely a good for which the demand increases with its price. The bandwagon effect per se is not enough to reach this result, and this suggests that the income distribution of the consumers acting in a certain market can change how a certain good is perceived and treated by the consumers themselves.
By Francesco Angelini; Università di Bologna    Corrado Benassi; Università di Bologna    Massimilano Castellani; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Francesco Angelini, Università di Bologna
A tale of privatization and nationalization Abstract We study waves of privatization and nationalization of natural monopoly industries in a dynamic model of the choice between a private and a public regime for the ownership of the activities. In each industry, switches are driven by the intrinsic dynamics of capital accumulation under uncertainty about the rate of depreciation, and the reluctance of society to keep a failing governance mode. We further show that waves of privatization and nationalization follow from the aggregation of switching processes across industries, displaying a strong hysteresis behavior. Waves are characterized by two elements: frequency and magnitude. The former reflects the volatility of capital accumulation, the latter depends on the memory of past failures in any given governance mode.
By Fabio Fiorillo; Università Politecnica delle Marche    Annalisa Vinella; Università di Bari
Presented by: Fabio Fiorillo, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Identity and in-group cooperation: does generalized trust matter? Abstract Several studies have highlighted the role of group identity in promoting in-group cooperation. This literature, however, has reported contrasting results on the systematic occurrence of in-group cooperation when this entails a personal cost. Empirical evidence suggests that the propensity of individuals to undertake pro-group behaviours is mediated by some socioeconomic characteristics of the communities in which they are embedded. At present, very little is known about the nature of these characteristics. The present paper addresses this issue by studying the occurrence of absolute and relative (to the out-group) in-group cooperation across communities with different levels of generalized trust. It makes use of data from an Italian television show in which four restaurant owners compete to be declared the best in a certain category. The results show that, with identity priming, in-group cooperation is significantly higher in higher-generalized trust communities, while in low-trust ones individualism prevails.
By Giovanni Perucca; Politecnico di Milano
Presented by: Giovanni Perucca, Politecnico di Milano
Switching of techniques and security market in a stationary overlapping-generation model Abstract We consider an overlapping generation model with production in which firms issue securities in order to purchase the capital goods they employ. We assume there are many different commodities, and each of them can be produced by many different methods, forming alternative techniques. Since we focus on stationary conditions, because of the non-substitution theorem, once an interest rate is given, the technique in use and the price system are determined accordingly. Hence, for an interest rate level, the supply of securities corresponds to the value of the capital goods firms plan to employ, and the demand to the amount of savings of the young generation. The possibility of re-switching – and, specifically, of backward switch points – affects both the shape of the supply curve of securities, and the properties of the equilibria. In particular, equilibria with a higher interest rate can be associated with a greater net output and consumption per unit of labour, disproving the idea of the interest rate as a reward for abstinence.
By Saverio M. Fratini; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Saverio M. Fratini, Università Roma Tre
Session 107: LABOUR MARKET II October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Fabio Pieri, Università di Trento
Local labor markets with non-homothetic preferences Abstract We study the effects on employment, costs of living, and income inequality of local shocks in the housing market or in the productivity of a tradable good. We construct a two-region search and matching model in which housing is consid- ered a necessity good. Mobility of labor implies that any change in one region propagates into the other. The model is analytically tractable and provides some intuitive comparative statics results. We then calibrate the model on the basis of German data. Our simulations indicate that both types of shock produce lim- ited employment changes but have a significant impact on housing prices and real income inequality: poorer, unemployed workers experience a larger increase in their cost of living index. This depends on the assumption of a non-homothetic utility function that generates a specific nominal wage to housing price positive relationship, partially safeguarding employed individuals against the rising cost of living.
By Gabriele Cardullo; Università di Genova    Agnese Sechi; Università di Genova
Presented by: Gabriele Cardullo, Università di Genova
Liquidity and Labor Misallocation Abstract We study how the liquidity channel influences the job search behavior of unemployed workers. Using a probabilistic Roy model with risk-averse agents, we illustrate a job search trade-off between securing income and capitalizing on comparative skill advantages. Empirical analysis suggests that financially distressed unemployed workers are more likely to undergo occupation transitions associated with human capital loss. Our results imply that income-support programs for the unemployed can improve labor productivity by allowing them to seek jobs that make efficient use of their human capital while also encouraging productive labor reallocation among those in less productive sectors.
By Euiyoung Jung; University of Alicante    Chul-In Lee; Seoul National University
Presented by: Euiyoung Jung, University of Alicante
Firm human resource practices and educational mismatch Abstract This paper investigates the determinants of educational mismatch at the firm level, using a panel survey on Italian firms from 2009 to 2017. Relying on individual data merged with firm-level ones, it proposes a new methodology to measuring educational mismatch in the firm and assesses both the level and the type of mismatch. Results indicate that the use of private employment agencies for recruitment, on-the-job training, and a more structured supervision organization are associated with a lower level of mismatch. The role of other practices depends on the type of mismatch in the firm. Job turnover rate is negatively associated with the level of mismatch in firms where undereducation is prevalent, but positively associated in firms where overeducation is prevalent. On the contrary, second-level bargaining increases mismatch in firms characterized by undereducation and reduces it in firms characterized by overeducation
By Gabriella Berloffa; Università di Trento    Daniela Piazzalunga; Università di Trento    Fabio Pieri; Università di Trento
Presented by: Fabio Pieri, Università di Trento
Session 108: MONETARY POLICY II October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Giovanni Cirigliano, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Monetary policy transmission in different credit markets Abstract The paper examines the intermediate stage of monetary policy transmission by analysing how credit growth responds to interest rate changes. It studies the markets for mortgages, consumer credit, and corporate loans separately, and pays special attention to periods when the short-term interest rate was very low. It uses quarterly country-level data from 2005Q1 to 2022Q4 for 15 euro area countries and applies standard panel-data estimation techniques. The results indicate that credit markets respond to changes in monetary policy in the expected way. While the magnitude of the reaction varies across credit markets, there are no discernible differences between the reactions of different subgroups in the sample. The hypothesis that monetary policy might be less effective when interest rates are very low is not supported by the empirical evidence. Rather the opposite, the paper finds that when Euribor is very low, credit markets become more responsive to changes in interest rates. This holds true primarily in the market for corporate loans and to some extent in the market for mortgages.
By
Presented by: Natalia Levenko, Tallinn University of Technology
Theoretical Economics as Successive Approximations of Statistical Moments Abstract This paper highlights the probalistic nature of macroeconomic variables and describes successive approximations of statistical moments of the values and volumes of market trades, prices, and returns. The randomness of the values and volumes of trades during the averaging interval Δ results in the random properties of prices and returns. We describe the dependence of averages and volatilities of prices and returns from the averages, volatilities, and correlations of the values and volumes of trades. The averages, volatilities, and correlations of the values and volumes of trades, prices, and returns can behave randomly during the long interval Δ2>>Δ. To describe their statistical properties during the long interval Δ2, we introduce the secondary averaging procedure. We explain why, in the coming years, predictions of market-based probabilities of price and return will be limited by Gaussian distributions. We discuss the roots of the internal weakness of the commonly used hedging tool, Value-at-Risk, that cannot be solved and remains the source of additional risks and losses. One should consider theoretical economics as a set of successive approximations, each of which describes the next array of the n-th statistical moments of market trades, price, return, and macroeconomic variables, which are repeatedly averaged during the sequence of increasing time intervals.
By Victor Olkhov; Independent, Moscow, Russia
Presented by: Victor Olkhov, Independent
Analyzing Income Equality in Economic Circulation: "Investigating the Impact of Financial Inclusion in Monetary Systems" Abstract This study explores the interaction among monetary policies, financial inclusion, and economic dynamics, with a particular emphasis on their nuanced effects on income distribution. Employing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model and introducing an innovative approach utilizing a disaggregated Gini index variable through the Chow-Lin methodology, the study investigates the dynamic response of the economic system to monetary policy shocks. Findings underscore the significant influence of monetary policies not only on conventional macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and inflation but also on income distribution. The analysis reveals diverse effects on economic inequality, emphasizing the necessity of considering these impacts in evaluations of financial policy. The theoretical advancement of integrating a disaggregated Gini index enriches the analytical framework, offering insights into the economic landscape. Additionally, the utilization of bootstrapping techniques enhances result robustness, yielding dependable confidence intervals. This research contributes to existing literature on monetary policies and financial inclusion by presenting a distinctive analytical perspective that captures the complex interactions between financial policies and the economic milieu. Implications drawn from the analysis could guide policy decisions aimed at fostering more equitable and sustainable economic growth. However, despite significant findings, challenges and unresolved questions persist, necessitating further research. In essence, this study advances our comprehension of the intricate relationship between monetary policies and financial inclusion, stressing the importance of considering distributive impacts in economic policy assessments. Moreover, exploring causality relationships and the persistence of effects over the long term is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of monetary shock transmission dynamics, particularly concerning their influence on income distribution. Thus, the research inquiry arises: "Do monetary policies have a discernible impact on income distribution, and how does this influence financial inclusion over the long term within the broader economic context?"
By Fabio Anobile; Università LUM    Lucio Laureti; Università LUM    Alberto Costantiello; Università LUM    Marco Matarrese; Università LUM
Presented by: Fabio Anobile, Università LUM
Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Financial Frictions and Behavioral Heterogeneity Abstract In this paper I extend the standard version of the New Keynesian model by introducing imperfect substitutable assets of different maturities, short-term and long-term bonds, in order to study the role of segmentation in financial markets on the stability of the model. The goal of the paper is twofold: first of all, analysing the determinacy of the rational expectations equilibria in order to examine the stability of the economy incorporating financial frictions à la Andrés et al. (2004); second, studying how stability conditions change in a framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations. Heterogeneity and bounded rationality in expectations are introduced by adopting the Adaptive Belief System à la Brock and Hommes (1997), and this allows to capture the behavior of the macroeconomic variables when agents switch between different types of expectations rules varying in the degree of rationality. The results from the calibrated model suggest that, under the rational representative agent hypothesis, a more restrictive government sector might compromise the efficacy of monetary policy leading a greater area of indeterminacy. When boundedly rational agents are considered, the system exhibits a quasi-chaotic dynamics of the main variables whenever agents switch toward what they perceive to be the best performing predictor.
By Giovanni Cirigliano; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Presented by: Giovanni Cirigliano, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Session 109: REGIONAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Ugo Fratesi, Politecnico di Milano
Unveiling urban smartness: empirical evidence from Italian cities Abstract The emergence of smart cities is increasingly seen as a critical solution to the multifaceted challenges posed by urbanization. From an economic perspective, the transition towards smart cities is not just a technological upgrade but a strategic development that can drive sustainable economic growth and enhance urban competitiveness. Recently, governments have been devoting joint efforts to the promotion of smart cities by introducing a series of policies and strategies, recognizing their potential to promote positive changes. However, several barriers may hinder the successful implementation of smart city initiatives. Measurement and evaluation tools are useful ways to set goals and monitor the cities’ progress toward smartness. There is little study that examines what results have been achieved in the practice of the Italian context. The present study is aimed at developing a multidimensional framework for assessing smartness performance in Italian cities, by providing the user with a step-by-step approach. The framework is composed of five stages: (i) a comprehensive literature review to develop a holistic understanding of smart cities and identify the criteria of the MCDM process; (ii) the selection of indicators that serve as sub-criteria within the MCDM framework; (iii) weight assignment to each indicator by convening a panel of stakeholders and using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP); (iv) normalization, assessment, and aggregation of results, producing final scores to rank cities based on their smartness levels, using the TOPSIS method; (v) sensitivity analysis to confirms the stability and validity of the obtained results. Indicator data are collected from the 21 Italian regional capital cities. The framework returned very important results, highlighting significant disparities between sampled cities. The model provides policymakers, urban planners and researchers with a comprehensive and scalable tool to measure urban intelligence, making also stakeholders accountable for the achieved results. Moreover, it can be a useful tool to support policymakers in identifying strengths and potential areas for urban improvement, ensuring sustainable development and a better quality of life for residents. The present study constitutes a key contribution to ongoing efforts to transform urban environments into smarter, more efficient and livable spaces.
By Roberta Barbieri; Università del Salento     Benedetta Coluccia; Università Telematica Pegaso    Donatella Porrini; Università del Salento    Francesco Natale; Università del Salento
Presented by: Benedetta Coluccia, Pegaso University
Bouncing Back Together: The Role of Regional Social Capital in Individual Resilience Abstract The ability to adapt and overcome adversity, known as individual resilience, has become a central topic in economic research. Understanding the factors that promote resilience is crucial for designing effective policies to foster economic well-being, particularly in periods of increasing economic uncertainty and deep social change. Prior studies have established a significant link between social capital and individual resilience (e.g., Helliwell & Putnam, 2004; Kawachi & Berkman, 2000). Social capital, encompassing the trust towards institution and other people, the civic engagement and the soundness of relationships network, provides individuals with valuable social support, access to information, and a sense of belonging. These resources can act as a buffer against economic shocks, such as job loss or unexpected illness, by facilitating access to alternative employment opportunities, financial resources, and emotional support networks (Adhikari & Agrawal, 2000). However, the existing literature on social capital and resilience has primarily focused on the individual level. This focus neglects the potential influence of social capital at a broader regional scale. Regional social capital reflects the interconnectedness and trust within a larger geographic area, potentially encompassing social networks that extend beyond immediate communities. Recent research suggests that regional-level factors can significantly influence individual outcomes (e.g., Duranton & Puga, 2004). Similarly, regional social capital may play a crucial role in promoting individual resilience by fostering a broader sense of shared identity, access to a wider pool of resources, and exposure to diverse coping mechanisms. This study aims to address this gap in the literature by examining the effect of regional social capital on individual resilience. We leverage data from the European Social Survey (ESS), which provides a unique opportunity to analyze the relationship between regional-level social capital and individual-level resilience across a large and diverse sample of European countries. We hypothesize that higher levels of regional social capital will be associated with greater individual resilience. By investigating this relationship, we aim to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the factors promoting individual resilience.
By Leonardo Becchetti; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Davide Bellucci; Università di Torino    Fabio Pisani; Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Presented by: Davide Bellucci, Università di Torino
Unfolding Smart Specialization Strategies (S3): structural change and labor upgrading across European regions? Abstract This work aims to explore the heterogeneity of Smart Specialization strategies across European regions and their interaction with regional productive structures, innovation capabilities, and labor market dynamics. Our research thus aims to address two fundamental research questions. First, whether, and to what extent, the Smart Specialization strategies adopted from 2014 in the EU have led to an actual structural change in European regions, increasing the prominence of high-value sectors rich in knowledge and innovation. Second, whether and how this shift has reflected on labor market dynamics, enhancing the availability of good employment opportunities, and thus reducing the prevalence of non- standard, temporary, and part-time forms of work. To answer these questions, we have developed a regional-level database (see Capriati et al., 2024) that integrates information on Smart Specialization strategies from textual analysis of EU Commission documents with regional performance and labor market indicators from Eurostat’s Regional Economic Accounts, Annual Regional Database of the European Commission (ARDECO), and the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
By Elisa Calò; Università di Bari    Valeria Cirillo; Università di Bari    Marialuisa Divella; Università di Bari    Eustachio Ferrulli; Università di Bari    Francesco Prota; Università di Bari
Presented by: Marialuisa Divella, Università di Bari
The four waves of regional policy: Towards an era of trade-offs? Abstract The conceptual bases and political motivations on which regional policy is implemented, as well as its objectives have evolved in time, although with a certain degree of continuity. Understanding this evolution helpful to understand the reasons why, nowadays, regional policy is applied, and what might come next. For this reason, this paper reviews the conceptual developments of regional policy from the second world war until present times. It shows that three waves have followed to each other, each with different theoretical underpinnings and practical deployment, namely a “disparities”, a “competitiveness” and a “potentials” one. The evolution is shown to depend on the theories developed at that time, on the results of previous policy attempts and on the political objectives of policies. The three phases, as always happens with complex concepts, are not fully consecutive and elements of the one are present in the other, so that there is no precise date for the passage from one to another, although, conceptually, there is a clear distinctiveness of each one. The paper also shows that a fourth phase, one of “trade-offs” might be starting, based on the recent evolution of empirical and conceptual evidence. This stems from the practical and conceptual difficulties in reconciling conflicting objectives, so that choices on which objective to favour will be needed, even if some room for two-way policies still exists. The aim of the paper is not to provide a history of regional policy, illustrating what has been done and where, nor it is to refer to a history of the political thought on regional policy. Instead, the aim is to provide a stylized historical description of the conceptual advancements and of the justifications and objectives which were developed in time. While there is a sequential logic of the four phases, these are not disjoint from each other. The ideas developed during a wave often get lower importance in the next one, but are rarely fully forgotten. Moreover, there were several ideas in a wave which anticipated those of the next ones. This also depends on the fact that different scholars are supportive of different theories and, while the pre-eminence of one against another can change in time, the concepts developed by the papers by one are seldom forgotten once other scholars put forward new theories.
By Ugo Fratesi; Politecnico di Milano
Presented by: Ugo Fratesi, Politecnico di Milano
Session 110: FISCAL POLICY October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Alice Albonico, Università di Milano-Bicocca
Seemingly Irresponsible but Welfare Improving Fiscal Policy at the Lower Bound: The Role of Expectations Abstract We evaluate super-active fiscal policy rules that cut taxes or increase spending as the government's debt level rises. Using a standard New Keynesian model subject to an occasionally-binding zero lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate and a model-consistent measure of welfare, we show that such seemingly irresponsible fiscal rules can improve economic welfare. While sensible fiscal policy and active monetary policy perform best away from the ZLB, the fiscal rules we analyze significantly reduce the time spent at the ZLB and produce overall welfare gains. Super-active fiscal policies are most effective with a high debt target and when debt is short-term. However, this ranking of policy regimes depends critically on how expectations are formed. When private expectations are characterized by cognitive discounting, the performance of super-active fiscal rules deteriorates. Fiscal rules calibrated to the U.S. response during both the Great Recession and COVID recession, combined with a weak monetary policy response to inflation, outperform a monetary policy that responds strongly to inflation and reduce the frequency of ZLB episodes under rational expectations, but not under cognitive discounting.
By Roberto Billi; Sveriges Riksbank    Carl Walsh; University of California, Santa Cruz
Presented by: Roberto Billi, Sveriges Riksbank
The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus in a Small Open Economy with the FTPL Abstract Following Gali (2020), Okano and Eguchi (2023) develop a small open economy model without iterated government budget constraint and show the money-financed (MF) fiscal stimulus is more effective at stabilizing output and inflation in a small open economy than in a closed economy. We focus on fiscal theory of price level (FTPL) and investigate the effectiveness of the MF fiscal stimulus in a small open economy in which FTPL involves to decide inflation. Even if the openness in a small open economy increases, additional effectiveness of the MF fiscal stimulus is negligible. That is, an increase in the openness no longer contributes to increase the effectiveness of the MF fiscal stimulus. Okano and Eguchi (2023)'s finding is no longer applicable in a small open economy once the FTPL is introduced. It is remarkable that the effectiveness of the MF scheme is weaker than it of the debt-financed scheme in a liquidity trap.
By Eiji Okano; Nagoya City University    Thi Viet Phuong Nguyen; Nagoya City University
Presented by: Eiji Okano, Nagoya City University
Identifying Public Investment and Consumption Shocks Abstract This paper identifies exogenous shocks to U.S. public consumption and public investment using an agnostic approach based on maximizing the forecast error variance of defense consumption and investment in a structural vector autoregression. Assuming that defense spending is exogenous to the state of the economy, defense consumption and investment are used to approximate exogenous variations in total government consumption and investment. The results for the post-Korean War period from 1954-2019 suggest that public consumption and investment have statistically distinct effects. Public consumption shocks have expansionary effects, raising output and private consumption while lowering unemployment in the short run. In contrast, public investment shocks do not have statistically significant effects and are associated with a significant crowding out of private investment. The identified public consumption multiplier is found to be significantly higher than the public investment multiplier. These findings have implications for both empirical and theoretical research on fiscal multipliers, suggesting that the composition of government spending matters for its macroeconomic effects. Estimates of aggregate fiscal multipliers may lack external validity if they depend on the composition of spending.
By Nikolaos Angelopoulos; University of East Anglia
Presented by: Nikolaos Angelopoulos, University of East Anglia
Fiscal Multipliers in a Permanent Liquidity Trap Abstract We consider a small-scale overlapping generations model where the zero lower bound on interest rates is always binding. We estimate the model for the Japanese economy, accommodating both active and passive fiscal policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a predominantly passive fiscal policy stance during the period spanning from 1995 to 2019. We compute ex-ante and ex-post fiscal multipliers for various policy instruments. Under the backdrop of passive fiscal policy: i) Government spending multipliers exhibit values below one. ii) A reduction in lump-sum taxes results in a modest decrease in output. iii) In general, multipliers are lower compared to an active fiscal policy regime, except for labor taxes, where the opposite is observed.
By Alice Albonico; Università di Milano-Bicocca    Guido Ascari; Università di Pavia e De Nederlandsche Bank    Alessandro Gobbi; Università di Milano
Presented by: Alice Albonico, Università di Milano-Bicocca
Session 111: WASTE MANAGEMENT October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Alessio D'Amato, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Tax incentives and environmental performance: the pay-as-you-throw policy in Emilia Romagna Abstract This study investigates the impact of implementing the pay-as-you-throw policy as a fiscal incentive mechanism for municipal waste management across municipalities in the Emilia Romagna region, Italy. Utilizing panel data from 2010 to 2022 and employing a synthetic control with staggered treatment adoption, we evaluate the policy's effects on environmental and local public finance performances. Our findings reveal that treated municipalities witness an average 10% increase in separate waste collection alongside a parallel reduction in municipal waste production since the policy outset, equating to approximately 60 kg per capita annually. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the policy enables local governments to reduce current energy and environmental expenditures by roughly €130 per capita annually in our optimal model. Notably, results hold robust across three recently developed estimators using difference-in-differences with staggered treatment adoption over time. The policy proves overall effectiveness in promoting circularity within municipal waste management systems, leading to better environmental performances, and decreased environmental management expenses. These implications underscore the potential value for local governments to adopt similar strategies where not yet envisaged.
By Dante Di Matteo; Università eCampus    Eleonora Guadagno; Università L'Orientale di Napoli
Presented by: Dante Di Matteo, Università eCampus
Tax Cut and Tax Compliance: Evidence from Grants to Green Municipalities Abstract This work examines whether a tax cut can lead to an increase in tax compliance. To this aim, we investigate the local waste sector in municipalities located in Emilia-Romagna, one of the largest Italian regions. To achieve identification, we exploit a quasi-natural experiment. Starting from January 2016, a regional law granted a reduction in the waste tax burden for inhabitants of municipalities with an efficient waste collection. Using staggered Diff-in-Diff strategies, we estimate the impact of this tax reduction on its compliance. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in the effects of the tax cut among the treated municipalities: after 2016 the share of tax evasion observed in municipalities benefiting from the tax reduction decreased relative to comparable municipalities which did not receive the tax benefit (ATT ≈ 5%). This reduction, however, is only observed in treated municipalities with a high pre-reform level of waste tax evasion. Robustness and falsification tests confirm that our findings are solely corroborated for waste taxation and pertain exclusively to the subsidized municipalities.
By Pasquale Giacobbe; Università della Calabria    Andrea Mosca; Università di Bergamo    Patrizia Ordine; Università della Calabria    Giuseppe Rose; Università della Calabria
Presented by: Pasquale Giacobbe, Università della Calabria
Drivers of municipal waste in Italy. Is there a Municipal Waste Kuznets Curve? Abstract Waste management represents a fundamental pillar in the circular economy, considering the finite nature of natural resources and the crucial importance of their conservation for future generations. In this perspective, the European Union has established specific prevention and recycling objectives, and Italy is called not to be left behind in this evolutionary path. Legislative Decree no. 152 of 2006 attributes broad responsibilities to municipal administrations in waste management, establishing that a share between 20% and 60% of municipal resources must be allocated to waste treatment. This paper focuses on the analysis of waste as the main theme, with the aim of outlining the current and future scenario that Italian municipalities are facing in terms of prevention and recycling. We use a dataset containing more than 5000 municipalities between 2016 and 2019, amounting to 17,107 available observations from various sources. Through the application of different econometric models, we find that both waste variables are linked to income through an inverted N relationship. This phenomenon can be attributed to better management and separate waste collection practices in more affluent contexts. Results also show that the quality of institutions has a positive impact in terms of waste reduction and separated collection, while, in terms of migratory balance, as population increases municipal waste and separated collection increase as well.
By Alessio D'Amato; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Edoardo Fermante; Università di Roma Tor Vergata    Matteo Mazzarano; Università di Siena
Presented by: Alessio D'Amato, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Session 112: BANKING October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Marcello Pagnini, Banca d'Italia
Interest Rate and Bank Rescue Policies Abstract In this paper, we propose a model where conflicts between price and financial stability goals arise from a link between the interest rate and bank rescue policies. When the interest rate set by the Central Bank is low, a regulator aiming to keep financial stability can pacify turmoils in the banking sector both by guaranteeing liquidity to the market and by acting as a lender of last resort by providing emergency liquidity to distressed banks. In this case, the presence of fiscal costs that the regulator incurs when she injects liquidity into the financial system and the distorting effects on the banks' behavior if the lender-of-last-resort interventions are expected make it convenient for the regulator to intervene by providing liquidity to the markets. However, when the interest rate is high, the regulator is forced to act as a lender of last resort. From a normative perspective, our discussion suggests that in developed economies, where fiscal costs are usually lower, a central bank whose primary task is to pursue price stability provides higher welfare compared to the setting where the Central Bank's mandate attaches equal weights to price and financial stability tasks.
By Emmanuel Caiazzo; LUISS Guido Carli    Alberto Zazzaro; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Emmanuel Caiazzo, LUISS Guido Carli
Board characteristics and market power: Evidence from Italian listed banks Abstract We try to assess the extent to which board structure and composition affect market power of Italian listed banks by means of a two-stage procedure: we first estimate bank-level Lerner indices, then we regress these market power indicators on a set of variables related to board, bank-specific and macroeconomic characteristics for the period 2008-2022. We find that market power is higher for banks with small and one-tier system boards characterized by low meeting frequency, few independent but more foreign members, substantial age homogeneity, and not very busy directors. Further, we show that the results are quite different when using accounting measures of bank performance, suggesting that estimating Lerner indices can improve the quality of information for banking regulators and policy makers.
By Paolo Coccorese; Università di Salerno
Presented by: Paolo Coccorese, Università di Salerno
Savings, Efficiency and Bank Runs Abstract Does the level of deposits matter for bank fragility and efficiency? By augmenting a standard model of endogenous bank runs with a consumption-saving decision, we obtain two results. First, depositors’ incentives to run increase with the amount of savings held as bank deposits. Second, a saving externality emerges since individual depositors do not internalize the effect of their savings on the bank-run probability. Therefore, the economy features over-saving and inefficient bank liquidity provision, as well as excessive bank fragility. Finally, we characterize the optimal policy to implement the efficient allocation.
By Agnese Leonello; European Central Bank    Caterina Mendicino; European Central Bank    Ettore Panetti; Università di Napoli Federico II    Davide Porcellacchia; European Central Bank
Presented by: Ettore Panetti, Università di Napoli Federico II
The digital transformation in the Italian banking sector Abstract Using a unique dataset based on the results of a survey of almost 280 Italian banks (Regional Bank Lending Survey), this paper presents early evidence on the digital transformation of the Italian banking sector over the period 2007-2018. By building a composite indicator that measures the digital supply of financial services, we show a growth in digitalization over the entire period, with a clear acceleration since 2013. The adoption of digital technologies is not homogeneous across banks and, to an even greater extent, business areas: digitalization started in payment services at the end of the 1990s and then spread to asset management, whereas the use of digital channels in lending is still less frequent. More recently, banks have also implemented new FinTech projects, mainly for digital payments and asset management activities. Lastly, we find a positive correlation between the intensity of technological innovation and bank profitability, and a negative correlation with the number of branches, signalling a potential substitution effect between physical and digital channels.
By Davide Arnaudo; Banca d'Italia    Silvia Del Prete; Banca d'Italia    Cristina Demma; Banca d'Italia    Marco Manile; Banca d'Italia    Andrea Orame; Banca d'Italia    Marcello Pagnini; Banca d'Italia    Carlotta Rossi; Banca d'Italia    Paola Rossi; Banca d'Italia    Giovanni Soggia; Banca d'Italia
Presented by: Marcello Pagnini, Banca d'Italia
Session 113: EQUILIBRIUM AND MARKET IMPERFECTIONS October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Simone Tonin, Università di Udine
Market Power in Mixed Exchange Economies Abstract The aim of this paper is to extend the study of the Walras core and the Shapley-Shubik core to mixed exchange economies where large traders (oligopolists) are represented by atoms and small (competitive) traders are represented by an atompless continuum. This extension is not only interesting from a mathematical perspective but, as our results will show, it can shed some new light on the nature of market power in the cooperative (coalitional) and non-cooperative (strategic) approaches to oligopoly.
By Marialaura Pesce; Università di Napoli Federico II    Simone Tonin; Università di Udine
Presented by: Simone Tonin, Università di Udine
A monetary growth model with limited foresight Abstract We analyze the equilibrium dynamics in a monetary growth model in which agents are endowed with limited foresight. Namely, in each period, the consumption and investment plans extend only for a limited number of periods and are reformulated in each subsequent period, giving rise to a kind of rolling myopic behavior. We show that, in the non monetary economy, the growth rate increases when the degree of limited foresight is relaxed, as a longer planning horizon enhances investment to finance far in time consumption. Furthermore, as soon as the degree of limited foresight approaches zero, the growth rate converges to that obtained in the infinite horizon model. When fiat money is introduced, monetary equilibria can exist provided that money supply is withdrawn at a constant rate. Under such an hypothesis, the growth rate of the economy is driven by the growth rate of money, and can be higher or lower than the growth rate of the infinite horizon optimal economy. The monetary equilibrium can be globally stable or unstable, according to the monetary rule. In the second case the non monetary steady state will represent a global attractor. Finally, we find the optimal monetary policy maximizing social welfare.
By Francesco Magris; Università di Trieste    Daria Onori; University of Orleans
Presented by: Francesco Magris, Università di Trieste
Growth, Lockdown and the Dynamics of the Covid-19 Pandemic Abstract We present an extended dynamic equilibrium framework describing the simultaneous evolution of aggregate economic variables, of the Covid-19 reproduction index and of the lockdown measure. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the stationary solution and characterize its stability features. We also perform some comparative statics exercises in order to test how epidemiological and economic variables are affected by public containment measures. Namely, more restrictive lockdowns accelerate the process of absorption of the pandemic but slows down economic activity. When public spending financed through income taxation and reinvested entirely in public spending on health is accounted, there is an optimal level of the tax rate that minimizes fatalities. We also characterize the optimal stationary lockdown trading-off health needs, which require reinforced containment measures, and economic needs, which instead require relatively high degrees of opening of the economic activity.
By Luciana Bartolini; Università di Trieste    Francesco Magris; Università di Trieste    Alissa Stel; Regione Autonoma Friuli Venezia Giulia
Presented by: Luciana Bartolini, Università di Trieste
Economic Growth, Pollution and Public Debt as a Welfare Improving Device Abstract We study, within an OLG framework, the interactions between economic growth, environmental sustainability and fiscal policy. We assume agents endowed with green preferences, productive externalities on environment quality and a pollution abatement sector beside the consumption-investment one. The decentralized equilibrium is generically suboptimal and entails larger production and environmental degradation with respect to the social optimum, in correspondence to which environmental quality increases with the social discount factor. We prove that the social optimum can be decentralized by means of a fiscal policy targeting opportunely the public debt to capital ratio. Indeed, the introduction of government bonds crowds out investment in physical capital, slowing thus down production and preserving more intensively environmental quality. Therefore, Government must target larger debt to capital ratios as soon as the social degree of patience increases. To illustrate our findings, we also perform some numerical exercises.
By Luciana Bartolini; Università di Trieste    Bianca Tanasa; Università di Trieste
Presented by: Bianca Tanasa, Università di Trieste
Session 114: CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICY October 26, 2024 10:30 to 11:50 Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Elena Paglialunga, Università Roma Tre
Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of European Climate Policy Effects Abstract The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has become the cornerstone of the European Union’s strategy to decarbonize the economy and mitigate climate change. Following these objectives, the aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the price of carbon, which is linked to the European market of allowances, on carbon dioxide emissions. To do so, we propose an econometric model that extends the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model in several directions. First, the price of carbon, which is the policy variable, is introduced in the model in a nonparametric fashion; Second, we propose to use an interactive fixed effects approach to control for latent heterogeneities in both dimensions of panel data; Third, to allow for spatial dependence, we introduced spatially correlated errors. The extended EKC model poses various challenges for estimation. To cope with them, using a profile likelihood approach, we propose a Feasible Generalized Least Squares estimator of the parameters of interest. Furthermore, the policy effects curve is also efficiently estimated. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are shown and, based on these outcomes, we empirically evaluate the policy effects. Our approach yields significantly different and more meaningful results compared to those obtained using standard estimation techniques.
By Alexandra Soberon; Universidad de Cantabria    Massimiliano Mazzanti; Università di Ferrara & SEEDS'    Antonio Musolesi; Università di Ferrara    Juan Manuel Rodriguez-Poo; Universidad de Cantabria
Presented by: Massimiliano Mazzanti, Università di Ferrara & SEEDS'
Analysis of Environmental and Trade Impacts of EU Regulation on Deforestation Free Products Abstract Deforestation is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural expansion has been identified as one of the major drivers. The European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to reduce deforestation emissions focusing on selected agricultural commodities. This research examines the potential effects of the EUDR on international trade and greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions, specifically investigating its impact on forestry carbon leakage. It combines two different types of models (the land-balance model by Pendrill et al. (2019a) and the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)) to assess the contribution of the agricultural sector to deforestation, define regions at high risk of this phenomenon, and finally assess the effect of the policy in an ex-ante analysis. Results indicate that tropical areas are the most likely to be affected, but also relevant trade partners such as the USA and China will be conditioned by this regulation.
By Francesco Calciolari; IUSS Pavia e Università di Urbino    Marcello De Maria; World Wildlife Fund UK    Neus Escobar; Basque Centre for Climate Change    Elena Paglialunga; Università Roma Tre    Dirk-Jan van de Ven; Basque Centre for Climate Change
Presented by: Francesco Calciolari, IUSS Pavia e Università di Urbino
The long-run effects of economic growth on N2O emissions: an empirical analysis on China, USA, and EU Abstract The issue of climate change has become increasingly pressing in recent years. The excessive burning of fossil fuels and the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) represent its primary cause. Mitigating these emissions through an energy transition not only prevents environmental impacts but also fuels economic growth of countries. In light of that, this paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and N_2O emissions for China, United States, and European Union, by considering data from 1997 to 2021. Specifically, we analyze data on nitrous oxide emissions, real GDP, renewable energy consumption, government debt, and government spending to examine their effects on N_2O emissions. Results show that the impact of these variables on N_2O emissions changes significantly both for the economies and for the relationship among variables. Specifically, an increase in real GDP and renewable energy consumption decreases nitrous oxide emissions in both China and the European Union that have started the transition to renewables. In contrast, an increase in government expenditure and in public debt does not affect emissions’ reduction of dangerous gases for all economies. In terms of policy message, the paper suggests that programs supporting both the environment's sustainability and the development of their various countries' economies are needed. This goal can be achieved by altering energy policies to encourage the use of renewable energy sources.
By Francesco Busato; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Claudia Ulloa Severino; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Monica Varlese; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Monica Varlese, Università di Napoli Federico II
Carbon border adjustments or climate clubs: impacts on African agricultural sectors under different cooperative scenarios Abstract Although climate change is accelerating rapidly, international climate negotiations are still far from succeeding in an effective mitigation action. The reasons of this failure are free-riding behaviours and consequent adverse effects from unilateral abatement policies, such as carbon leakage. The introduction of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), as planned by the EU, and the formation of climate clubs are two potential solutions, both presenting uncertainties about trade impacts, effectiveness, and equity implications, particularly for developing countries. We analyse the outcome of these alternative unilateral or cooperative solutions using a dynamic CGE model focusing on the EU-Africa relations and the agricultural sectors. Results suggest that the effectiveness of CBAM in preventing carbon leakage and supporting EU climate goals depends on foreign partners implementing domestic carbon pricing mechanisms. Conversely, for African regions, domestic mitigation efforts and exemption from CBAM can enhance export competitiveness on EU markets while reducing global carbon leakage. Overall, climate clubs, coupled with technology transfer and best practices diffusion in agriculture can support developing countries and promote an inclusive and environmentally beneficial development transition.
By Andrea Bassi; KnowlEdge Srl, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)    Francesco Calciolari; IUSS Pavia e Università di Urbino    Valeria Costantini; Università Roma Tre    Mariagrazia D'Angeli; Università Roma Tre    Elena Paglialunga; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Elena Paglialunga, Università Roma Tre
Session 115: LABOUR MARKET III October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula 02, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Dario Sciulli, Università di Chieti-Pescara
The Health Burden of Job Strain: Evidence from Europe Abstract This study examines the impact of occupational stressors and tasks throughout an individual's career on health in older age. Leveraging comprehensive job occupation data from the SHARE dataset, we establish precise connections between stressors and specific jobs at the 4-digit ISCO code level. To ensure accurate measurement of physical exertion, we propose the use of Metabolic Equivalent of Task (MET) based on the metabolic rate consumption associated with each task. Our study makes two key contributions. First, we provide compelling evidence that individuals, especially women, engaged in physically demanding jobs experience significantly worse health in older age. Our results remain valid after conducting several robustness checks and after controlling for a rich set of variables. Secondly, we introduce a novel approach based on the LASSO to identify harmful tasks and measure overall Job Strain Intensity, which also incorporates unobserved occupational stressors. This approach allows us to pinpoint specific harmful tasks and 4-digit ISCO codes, providing valuable insights for targeted retirement schemes and addressing important considerations regarding the fairness of statutory retirement ages. Additionally, policymakers can benefit from our findings to foster healthier work environments and guide investments towards automating high-risk tasks, thereby improving overall workplace safety and well-being.
By Petru Crudu; Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia    Giacomo Pasini; Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia
Presented by: Petru Crudu, Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia
The Influence of Sectoral Minimum Wages on School Enrollment and Educational Choices: Evidence From Italy in the 1960s-1980s Abstract Do minimum wages influence post-compulsory school enrollment and educational choices? This paper studies the effect of sectorally-bargained minimum wages using a quasi-natural historical experiment from Italy around 1969, when labour unions obtained steep wage raises for manufacturing workers. Italy’s weakly-selective educational system—whereby students choose specialist educational curricula at age fourteen—allows to separately identify the impact on enrollment from that on educational choices. Absent microdata for the period under study, I present original estimates of education and labour-market variables at the province level with annual frequency between 1962 and 1982. Exploiting exogenous spatial variation in the intensity of the minimum wage hike between provinces with an instrumental variable approach and flexible Difference-in-Differences, I find a temporary increase in early school leaving and a permanent substitution away from vocational schools preparing for manufacturing jobs. The length of the adjustment might have caused a significant long-term loss for Italy’s human capital stock.
By Andrea Ramazzotti; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Andrea Ramazzotti, Università di Napoli Federico II
Employment Protection and Intangible Capital Abstract Labor rigidity induces firms to respond by substituting capital for labor, leveraging intangible assets. These assets possess two integral characteristics: non-rivalry in use, enabling economies of scale and scope, and limited appropriability, restricting their potential for non-rivalrous use. Researchers embody crucial, idiosyncratic knowledge, a pivotal intangible asset employed in production, resistant to easy dismissal due to potential appropriability losses. Consequently, the shift towards intangibles involves the retention of key talent employees. We leverage the staggered adoption of three Wrongful Discharge Laws by US states from the 1970s to the 1990s to demonstrate, employing a difference-in-differences approach, that firms headquartered in states implementing the "good-faith" exception, preventing unjustified employee terminations, significantly heightened their intangible capital intensity. In contrast, tangible capital intensity remained unaffected by the "good-faith" exception. Additionally, our analysis reveals that the shift towards intangibles is accompanied by within-firm employment polarization towards researchers. Idiosyncratic knowledge is intrinsically tied to key talent employees, making their retention imperative to minimize appropriability losses associated with intangibles.
By Gianluca Orsatti; Università di Torino    Guido Pialli; University College London
Presented by: Gianluca Orsatti, Università di Torino
Low-pay dynamics in Europe: Evidence from the new century Abstract This paper explores the dynamics of low pay work in Europe by using all the available longitudinal data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey, which cover the 2003-2020 period. We adopt a dynamic framework to characterize the possible transitory or permanent nature of low pay job, and we consider the spectrum of possible labour market outcomes, i.e. non-employment, low pay job, and high pay job. We find the presence of genuine state dependence in low-pay work in the majority of countries explored. We try to uncover the possible factors associated with this evidence. The correlation analysis between state dependence and institutional factors and macro indicators suggest that, among the factors positively associated with persistence in a low pay condition, there are stronger earnings and income inequality, and employment protection legislation. There is also a role for social expenditure in contrasting the persistence of the low-pay phenomenon.
By Chiara Mussida; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore    Dario Sciulli; Università di Chieti-Pescara
Presented by: Dario Sciulli, Università di Chieti-Pescara
Session 116: CAPITAL FLOWS, PROFIT SHIFTING, TAX AVOIDANCE October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula Magna, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano interrato)
Session Chair: Giulia Russo, Scuola Normale Superiore
Private and public capital flows and the role of inequality. Evidence from Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Abstract Traditional analyses of capital flows are not enough to understand the relationship between the external sector and income distribution. A new database (Avdjiev et al., 2022) distinguishes between capital inflows and outflows related to the domestic private or public sector allows novel studies on the relationship between the external sector and income distribution. Particularly how different levels of inequality are associated with differentiated private and public sector dynamics regarding inflows and outflows. We employed dynamic panel data models from 1999 to 2019 for 51 Emerging Markets and Developing Economies. We examine whether financial openness during this period has intensified the link between inequality and capital flows, alongside institutional sector dynamics. Countries with high income concentration experience greater total capital inflows and outflows, with lower net flows. These patterns are evident in both public and private sector flows, with a stronger association observed in the latter. Private inflows predominantly drive total capital inflows and show the strongest correlation with inequality. Financial openness amplifies all these correlations, except for private capital inflows. So, financial regulations seem to impose stricter controls on the relationship between inequality and private outflows than on private inflows.
By Jorge Carrera; Central Bank of Argentina and UNLP    Gabriel Montes-Rojas; CONICET and IIEP-BAIRES-UBA    Mariquena Solla; Universidad Nacional de La Plata    Fernando Toledo; Universidad Nacional de La Plata
Presented by: Jorge Carrera, Central Bank of Argentina and UNLP
Measuring profit shifting using “resident” information: the PSM-ROC method Abstract This paper presents a novel method to estimate Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) at the micro level employing solely the information on resident business units (MNEs and domestics). The method contributes to the existing literature in two ways. Firstly, focusing on microdata referring to resident business units it overcomes the challenge associated to the availability and reliability of worldwide firm-level databases, which is currently a critical issue in BEPS measurement. Secondly, BEPS estimates at the MNE level enable the results to be applied in several research areas, such as informing specific policies, adjusting National Accounts and measuring Illicit Financial Flows. The application of the method to the Italian economy suggests significant findings: approximately 6 out of 10 MNEs shift their profits abroad; estimated BEPS amounts to slightly less than 25.9 billion euros, accounting for 1.4% of the Italian GDP at current prices in 2019.
By Federico Sallusti; ISTAT
Presented by: Federico Sallusti, ISTAT
Profit-Shifting of Multinational Corporations in Italy: an Industry-Level Analysis Abstract The paper explores profit-shifting for tax-avoidance purposes (also known as “aggressive tax planning”) by multinational corporations (MNCs) in the case of Italy at industry-level. The state of the art is reviewed, considering business strategies and the policy context. Building on ISTAT data on industry-level estimates of profit-shifting for Italy in 2019, the association with key economic processes is investigated. In particular, the relationship between the intensity of profit-shifting and overall profits, international activities, industry concentration, finance, investment and technology are explored, highlighting key patterns of MNCs strategies in industries. The tax-loss due to profit shifting is also estimated, building on OECD data and methodology.
By Giulia Russo; Scuola Normale Superiore
Presented by: Giulia Russo, Scuola Normale Superiore
Session 117: ITALIAN ECONOMY October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula Rossa, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Giuseppe Coco, Università di Bari
Global Perspective on Italian Capitalism Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between national and global distributions of capital and labor income in Italy from 1989 to 2020. By combining data from the Global Capital and Labor (GCL) Database and the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), it presents five principal findings. First, between 1989 and 2016, Italians consistently declined in their global income rankings based on both capital and labor income. Second, during this period, individuals in the lower income deciles across all regions (North, Center, and South of Italy) experienced more significant declines in both types of income. Third, these trends reversed from 2016 to 2020. Fourth, labor income became a more crucial determinant of global income status for Italians compared to capital income. Fifth, transfer income can no longer elevate Italians at the bottom of the labor income distribution to global middle-class standards, unlike in the past. Additionally, this paper introduces a simple analytical framework for examining the global income mobility of factors.
By Marco Ranaldi; University College London
Presented by: Marco Ranaldi, University College London
The effects of LCCs subsidies on the tourism industry Abstract This paper studies the relationship between air transportation, tourist flows and subsidies to LCCs, a policy used by many national and local governments to stimulate tourist arrivals. To test it empirically, we use a two-stage model: in the first stage we estimate a structural model applied to air transport; in the second stage we link passenger arrivals to regional tourism flows. In this way we use exogenous shocks (subsidies to LCCs) in airline supply to analyze the causal link with tourist arrivals. This model is applied to tourist flows from European regions to Italian regions during 2016-2018. Our counterfactual analyses consider two regimes for implementing subsidies to LCCs, following the literature coming from Oates (1993, 1999) contributions: a centralized, uniform policy for all regions, and a decentralized one in which subsidies are adopted by a single region. Our simulations reveal that subsidies to LCCs are effective in stimulating tourism, and that a centralized regime is more effective than a decentralized one. In fact, the latter generates externalities on regions that do not implement the subsidy, which makes it sub-optimal both as economic efficiency and policy sustainability.
By Christian Bontemps; ENAC and Toulouse School of Economics    Gianmaria Martini; Università di Bergamo    Flavio Porta; Università di Bergamo
Presented by: Gianmaria Martini, Università di Bergamo
The Innovation Index Across Italian Regions Abstract In the following article we analyze the Innovation Index in the Italian Regions between 2018 and 2023. The data used were acquired from the European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS of the European Commission. The analysis was first conducted using a static approach to highlight the trends and regional distribution of the innovation index. Subsequently, a clustering analysis was carried out with the k-Means algorithm optimized with both the Silhouette Coefficient and the Elbow Method. Subsequently, an econometric analysis is proposed using panel data models to estimate the determinants of the Innovation Index in the Italian regions. The results are discussed critically in the light of economic policy suggestions.
By Alberto Costantiello; Università LUM    Marco Bacini; Università LUM    Lucio Laureti; Università LUM    Fabio Anobile; Università LUM
Presented by: Alberto Costantiello, Università LUM
The Determinants of Delays in Cohesion Infrastructure Projects Abstract Public investment in infrastructure, particularly in transport, education and health, is essential for economic growth, but delays in project implementation can undermine its benefits. This paper examines the determinants of such delays using data from cohesion projects in Italy, focusing on the 2007-2013 period. We predict which projects are likely to experience significant delays and identify the key contributing factors by means of machine learning techniques. Our findings show that socioeconomic factors and institutional weaknesses in various regions play a significant role in these delays. The discipline imposed by rules and strict implementation timing on EU funds also seems to work, lending credibility to the hypothesis of the benefit of an external commitment. WE test for differences among public services, and find that delays are particolarly relevant in the education sector in the south, rather than in the Health care sector. Results underscore the potential of ML in enhancing project management and improving the outcomes of public investments.
By Giuseppe Coco; Università di Bari    Gianluca Monturano; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Giuliano Resce; Università del Molise
Presented by: Giuseppe Coco, Università di Bari
Session 118: QUALITY OF INSTITUTIONS October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula A1, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Margherita Scoppola, Università di Macerata
Investigating the Impact of Institutional Quality on Agricultural Labor Productivity Among ECO Countries Abstract In the economic literature, labor productivity is used to assess the economic ability of a country or sector to create and maintain adequate job opportunities with fair wages. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the quality of institutions on labor productivity in the agricultural sector among the 10 member countries of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) during the period 1996-2020. In the framework of panel data techniques, the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimator were used. According to the results, among the institutional variables, the two variables of “government efficiency” and “rule of law” have a positive and significant effect on the productivity of agricultural labor. Also, the relative area of agricultural lands has the greatest impact on the productivity of agricultural labor among ECO countries.
By Masoumeh Chehrehghani; Istanbul University    Ferda Yerdelen Tatoglu; Istanbul University
Presented by: Masoumeh Chehrehghani, Istanbul University
Does institutional quality promote regional resilience? Recent evidence on the corruption-growth nexus in Europe Abstract The article focuses on the effects that corruption and poor institutions have on the resilience of territories facing crises. The topic of regional resilience is timely, given the continual shocks we experienced in recent years and that are expected to continue to be frequent in the future. Temporary shocks may prompt permanent changes or hysteresis in complex adaptive systems, especially when the distribution of good institutions is already highly uneven across countries and regions, as is the case in Europe. Recent evidence suggests that despite the high persistence, the regional quality of government does shift over time and within countries (Charron et al., 2022). Nevertheless, lagging-behind regions and low-income countries might have already ended up in the basin of a “bad institutional trap”, a vicious cycle of high levels of corruption and inadequate public service delivery that will further worsen their economic prospects without public support. Meanwhile, the future of middle-income regions is by no means clear, and many of them could lose ground if threatened by adverse and deteriorating institutions. Against this background, after an overview of the evidence on the corruption-growth nexus, we will preliminarily run dynamic system GMM regressions with the traditional specifications of the literature (basic model) and an extended model with the institutional variables. Appropriate methodologies will be adopted to tackle non-linearities in panel data (Kripfganz and Schwarz, 2019). The analysis will be based on the European Quality of Government (EQI) index, also considering the most recent and comprehensive survey to date to measure perceptions of regional quality of government with respondents in all EU 27-member state countries (Charron, Dijkstra, & Lapuente, 2014, 2015; Charron et al., 2022). We will provide robustness checks considering different groups of countries and categories of regions (e.g., urban/rural). Previous analyses (Cutrini, 2023) and preliminary results suggest that the quality of government appears slightly more important in ensuring convergence of lagging-behind regions than high-income regions. If further confirmed with more recent data, this evidence will contribute to a more effective design and implementation of regional and industrial policies to mitigate the recent surge of inequalities among European regions.
By Eleonora Cutrini; Università di Macerata    Federico Ninivaggi; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Eleonora Cutrini, Università di Macerata
Green innovation and institutional quality in Italy Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between institutional quality and green patents in Italy. The empirical analysis is carried out by considering Italian NUTS3-regions and the period 2004-2019. We consider green patents applied by Italian firms to the EPO and granted by 2022. Patents data are retrieved from Orbis IP dataset provided by Bureau van Dijk, while the institutional quality index (IQI) is provided by Nifo and Vecchione (2014). Results, obtained through different estimation methods, show that institutional quality plays a positive and significant role in stimulating green innovation. In more detail, green patents seem to be affected by the strength of the rule of law, the regulatory quality, and voice and accountability. On average, the effect of IQI appears to be stronger in the north of the country.
By Paola Cardamone; Università della Calabria    Rosetta Lombardo; Università della Calabria
Presented by: Rosetta Lombardo, Università della Calabria
Multinational and domestic firms’ participation to global value chains: does institutional quality matter? Abstract This paper empirically investigates the heterogeneous impact of the quality of institutions on firms’ participation to Global Value Chains, by distinguishing flows associated with multinational firms from those due to domestic firms. Drawing on the database by OECD “Analytical AMNE” which combines bilateral trade in value added data with information about the nature of the firm for a large sample of countries and years, we use a panel gravity framework to estimate the impact of various measures of institutional quality on a few indexes measuring GVC participation in the food, beverages, and tobacco industry. The findings support our main hypotheses that i) better institutions fuel GVC participation, and that ii) the impact of institutional quality on GVC participation depends on the nature of the firm originating the flows and on the exporting country.
By Valentina Raimondi; Università di Milano    Margherita Scoppola; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Margherita Scoppola, Università di Macerata
Session 119: NATURAL DISASTERS October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula Amaranto, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Michela Rancan, Università di Milano
Shaken politics: The electoral outcomes of disasters and social capital Abstract Abstract We study the electoral repercussions of the L'Aquila earthquake in 2009, one of Italy’s most catastrophic post-WWII seismic events. Occurring just two months prior to an election, the earthquake prompted the right-wing incumbent government to pivot its electoral campaign towards massive relief transfers and pledges of swift recovery. We construct a unique municipality-level dataset, combining high-resolution data on the ground acceleration recorded during the earthquake with European election results and social capital metrics. Our findings reveal that the intensity of the shock experienced by inhabitants positively affected support for the incumbent government. This electoral premium was particularly pronounced in left-leaning municipalities and areas with a paucity of civic organizations, notably those engaged in emergency management, where citizens were exclusively dependent on political institutions for aid. Individual-level evidence from survey data further supports our findings. Nonetheless, the impact of the earthquake was not enduring. In the subsequent elections, the incumbent government experienced a decline in support in the very municipalities where it had initially gained favor following the disaster. Overall, our evidence paints a picture of disillusionment with the incumbent's response and promises.
By Giovanni Gualtieri; National Research Council, Institute of BioEconomy, Florence    Marcella Nicolini; Università di Pavia    Fabio Sabatini; Sapienza Università di Roma    Marco Ventura; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Marcella Nicolini, Università di Pavia
Business downsizes and interruptions caused by extreme weather events: the case of a flood in Sardinia Abstract Climate change is causing an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events around the world, they have a significant impact on the economy, affecting companies and workers. Despite an extensive literature analyzing business disruptions, little attention has been given to disruptions caused by disasters. This article aims to fill this gap by analyzing the business interruptions caused by the flood in Sardinia in November 2013, to illustrate the magnitude of the impact and ensure that managers increase the level of resilience in all territories more exposed to flood risk. The literature suggests that disasters have a significant impact on business operations and can lead to business disruptions, economic losses and high costs of reconstruction. This work uses the EM-Earth database (Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for Planet Earth) on meteorological disasters that occurred in Italy and the INPS (national social security institute) database containing information on Italian companies. The impact of the 2013 Sardinian flood on companies and workers is estimated using a difference-in-differences (DD) approach. Result sow an increase into rate of closure and a decrease in the number of workers. The document highlights the importance of resilience policies and public support for businesses and workers affected by disaster.
By Grazia Errichiello; Università di Napoli Parthenope    Antoine Mandel; University Paris1 Pantheon-Sorbonne    Alessandro Sapio; Università di Napoli Parthenope
Presented by: Grazia Errichiello, Università di Napoli Parthenope
Weather shocks and mobile phones: Evidence from a quasi-experimental design in rural Tanzania Abstract This paper is about the effect of extraordinary negative shocks on the probability of adoption of a new technology. Specifically, we analyze the impact of an exceptional harsh drought in 2011/2012 on the mobile phone ownership of agricultural households in rural Tanzania. The innovative technology provides the opportunity to benefit from receiving immediate information and remittances and, thereby, to mitigate the destructive consequences of the drought. We make use of the exogenous variation in the coverage of the drought to set-up a quasi-experimental design. Results show that households who are highly exposed to the drought are significantly more likely to own at least one mobile phone. Interestingly, we find negative effects of the shock for female headed households. Female headed households are less wealthy both in more and less drought affected areas but especially in more shock exposed areas large differences exist in terms of age and literacy of the household head. Controlling for these factors the negative gender effect of the shock persists. Beyond the factors social norms, cultural barriers and trust are likely to explain the mechanism through which the shock impacts the mobile phone ownership. There is no evidence of a differential effect of the drought by the age of the household head or by household income. Besides we do not obtain literacy effects of the shock except if we consider pre- and post-shock migration.
By Marco Guerzoni; Università Milano-Bicocca
Presented by: Marco Guerzoni, Università Milano-Bicocca
Natural Disasters and Owners’ Portfolio Diversification Abstract Natural disasters result in economic losses and disruptions for firms globally. This paper investigates whether these natural disasters influence the investment decisions of controlling owners and the economic behaviors of their firms. Focusing on controlling owners of privately and publicly traded European firms, our empirical findings indicate that owners respond to natural disasters by increasing their overall investment in the portfolio companies and reallocating resources from affected regions to unaffected ones. These results support the investment with reallocation hypothesis. We observe a varied response to natural disasters depending on home bias, financial constraints, owner’s nationality, portfolio geographical diversification, and number of events. Overall, we document that natural disasters affect corporate ownership dynamics.
By Michela Rancan; Università di Milano
Presented by: Michela Rancan, Università di Milano
Session 120: MACROECONOMICS October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula 11, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Guido Traficante, Università Europea di Roma e CASMEF
A large scale Data-Driven Agent Based Model for the Italian Economy Abstract We develop a data-driven agent-based model for the Italian economy. We start from Poledna et al. (2023a) and, as a preliminary step, we replicate their Monte-Carlo simulations for the Austrian economy. Then, we calibrate the model parameters and initial conditions for the Italian economy. We explore its empirical properties using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2019. The model generally displays transient dynamics with forecasting performances often not very far from predictions arising from basic econometric models. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. We find that the scale is not relevant for the forecasting performances. Finally, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model extending the simulation to a long-run horizon.
By Jacopo Di Domenico; Università di Macerata    Michele Catalano; Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia    Luca Riccetti; Università di Macerata
Presented by: Luca Riccetti, Università di Macerata
Some relations between the force, the velocity, and the work of money in a dynamic equation of exchange Abstract I have spent several years paying more thoughts on the highly controversial equation of exchange proposed by Professor Irving Fisher. The equation, although based on unrealistic assumptions regarding constancy of velocity and stability of its other variables, has been considered as the basis for the quantity theory of money and many decisions on monetary policies targeting inflation. The quantity theory has flourished from the equation, overemphasizing the velocity of money and making extensive use of its simple derivation while the force of money and its work are not considered for analysis. In an effort to overcome the mentioned shortcoming, I would like to propose a dynamic equation of exchange. Money velocity in the proposed dynamic equation is shown to be more general than that in Fisher’s equation. In addition, the introduction of the force of money into the analysis allows the establishment of the relationship between the force of money and output and price changes.
By Ngoc Ho Trieu; ESA
Presented by: Ngoc Ho Trieu, ESA
Disinflation and Non-linearities in a New Keynesian Model with Labor Market Frictions Abstract As inflation has come back noticeably in advanced economies since the beginning of this decade, the question of the effects of disinflation policies has regained particular importance. In the current literature of disinflation in the New Keynesian model, there is little research on how frictions in the labor market affect the process of reducing inflation in the economy. For this reason, the focus of this work lies in analyzing how the presence of a frictional labor market impacts the dynamics of the model across different values of steady-state inflation. Particular emphasis will be placed on the analysis of employment dynamics, and how the unemployment level varies with the level of inflation in the economy. In fact, the most novel result using this type of model turned out to be the trend in the level of employment. The presence of search and matching frictions gives rise to a negative correlation between employment and inflation, a completely opposite result from the New Keynesian model with Walrasian labor market.
By Paolo Bontempo; Friedrich Alexander University, Erlangen-Nuremberg
Presented by: Paolo Bontempo, Friedrich Alexander University, Erlangen-Nuremberg
Forward Guidance in Small Open Economy Abstract We examine forward guidance (with known and uncertain duration) in a small open economy New Keynesian model, showing that the response of the economy to this policy depends, both quantitatively and qualitatively, on some structural features. We show that, compared to closed economy, forward guidance turns out to be more expansionary in open economy when aggregate supply is negatively related to the real exchange rate. In particular, the more expansionary effect of the policy is due to the exchange rate pass-through and to a better inflation-output trade-off.
By Marine André; University of Strasbourg, BETA UMR 7522    Guido Traficante; Università Europea di Roma e CASMEF
Presented by: Guido Traficante, Università Europea di Roma e CASMEF
Session 121: CORPORATE FINANCE October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Sala Consiglio, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Antonio Acconcia, Università di Napoli Federico II, CSEF
Workplace Sustainability or Financial Resilience? Composite-Financial Resilience Index Abstract Due to the variety of corporate risks in turmoil markets and the consequent financial distress especially in COVID-19 time, this paper investigates corporate resilience and compares different types of resilience that can be potential sources of heterogeneity in firms' implied rate of return. Specifically, the novelty is not only to quantify firms' financial resilience but also to compare it with workplace resilience which matters more in the COVID-19 era. The study prepares several pieces of evidence of the necessity and insufficiency of these two main types of resilience by comparing earnings expectations and implied discount rates of high- and low-resilience firms. Particularly, results present evidence of the possible amplification of workplace resilience by the financial status of firms in the COVID-19 era. The paper proposes a novel composite-financial resilience index as a potential measure for disaster risk that significantly and persistently reveals low-resilience characteristics of firms and resilience-heterogeneity in implied discount rates.
By Elham Daadmehr; Università di Padova
Presented by: Elham Daadmehr, Università di Padova
Debt Maturity Structure at IPOs and Main Bank Relationship Abstract The maturity structure of debt can be dynamic, varying along with information symmetries and overall risks. In this paper, we examine the variation of debt maturity structure for Japanese firms after their Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). We select firms that underwent IPOs between 2002 and 2015 on Japanese stock market, collecting financial data for three years before and after the IPO-years. Using OLS and fixed effects models, we find a decline in the short-term debt ratio for the Japanese firms one year after their IPOs, suggesting a temporary extension of debt maturity structure. Our findings partially support the hypothesis under Flannery's (1986) signaling theory, which states that firm can mitigate asymmetric information problems through IPOs, facilitating issuance of long-term debt. To further dissect the determinants attributing to changes in debt maturity structure among Japanese firms, we introduce the presence of main bank as a factor. Univariate grouping and regression results indicate that firms without a main bank relationship faced more information asymmetries, thus the impact of IPOs on their short-term debt ratio is significantly negative and the extension of debt maturity structure is lasting. Furthermore, we construct sub-samples by various firm characteristics. Analyses reveal that firms with higher cash holding, smaller size and higher leverage, have a significant decline in short-term debt ratio post-IPO and thus an extension of debt maturity structure.
By Jieting Chen; Osaka Metropolitan University    Jinbin Fan; Osaka Metropolitan University
Presented by: Jieting Chen, Osaka Metropolitan University
Incentivizing the Green Transition: The Role of Executive Compensation Abstract Adapting to the green transition and mitigating climate risks cannot be postponed by corporate business, and innovation plays a pivotal role. This requests a solid alignment of stakeholders' interests towards this goal, and incentives are a key tool to achieve this alignment. We investigate the relationship between a specific Corporate Governance tool - the executive compensation linked to environmental goals - and firm market evaluation as well as the transition to green innovation. We combine data from the Carbon Disclosure Project with patent data for a sample of 329 companies from US and EU countries over the period 2010-2020. Our results show, first, that markets rewards firms using executive compensation linked to environmental goals; second, that firms with such compensation innovate significantly more in green technologies; and third, using a measure of green distance of firms' patent portfolio, that firms introducing green incentives shorten the technological distance to green innovation.
By Cecile Cezanne; Université Cote d'Azur/GREDEG    Francesco Quatraro; Università di Torino    Sandra Rigot; Université Sorbonne Paris Nord    Eleonora Rubichi; Università di Torino
Presented by: Eleonora Rubichi, Università di Torino
Firms’ capital structure and employment in the aftermath of the 2008-9 financial crisis Abstract Empirical literature documenting the real costs of financial crises links the surge of unemployment to mainly bank frictions. This paper takes a more comprehensive approach by looking at how bank credit constraints, firm’s capital structure and inputs characteristics interact in shaping the firms’s response. We document that both the firm’s ability to substitute bank with trade credit and the characteristics of the inputs transacted along the supply chain matter in shaping the labor market reaction of Italian corporations to the unfolding of the 2008-9 financial crisis. As bank lending conditions tightened, firms intensively increasing their reliance on trade credit managed to partly mitigate their employment contraction but faced a stronger input bias against labor. Manufacturing firms largely using trade credit to buy differentiated inputs experienced a smaller drop in employment but a stronger input bias than firms buying standardized inputs. Finally, while the labor market recovered quite fast for firms increasing their reliance on trade credit, with the number of employees reaching the pre-crisis level around 2016, the shift toward technologies less intensive in labor showed more persistence, with the input bias even sharpening during 2013-14 and being in 2019 still 6 percentage points higher than the initial 2008 value.
By Antonio Acconcia; Università di Napoli Federico II, CSEF    Daniela Fabbri; Bayes Business School, City University of London    Anna Maria Menichini; Università di Salerno
Presented by: Antonio Acconcia, Università di Napoli Federico II, CSEF
Session 122: ENERGY TRANSITION October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula 03, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Roberto Gabriele, Università di Trento
The influence of hurdle rates on the energy transition: an evaluation through TEMOA for the Italian energy system Abstract This paper introduces a methodology to evaluate technology-specific hurdle rates to be used in Energy System Optimization Models and assesses their influence on the energy transition. The evaluation of the hurdle rates is based on the weighted average cost of capital methodology and on data available in the literature. The sensitivity of models’ results to the hurdle rates is explored by evaluating the impact of a hurdle rates reduction for green technologies on the cost of the energy transition. Additionally, the possible role of hurdle rates variation for green and brown technologies in driving the transition to green investments without considering strict constraints by law. The results highlight relatively low potential savings for the energy transition cost associated with the hurdle rates reduction, and that changes in the technology competitiveness between green and brown technologies in the unconstrained scenarios occur for higher variation than what is realistically expectable from possible green finance measures such as the EU Taxonomy for Sustainable Activities (estimated in the order of 1%). This suggests that green finance may help and support the energy transition, but it is not enough to be a game changer if not combined with other energy policies.
By Matteo Nicoli; Politecnico di Torino    Gianvito Colucci; Politecnico di Torino    Valeria Di Cosmo; Università di Torino    Daniele Lerede; Università di Torino    Laura Savoldi; Politecnico di Torino
Presented by: Valeria Di Cosmo, Università di Torino
Techno-economic impacts of energy transition: the state of the art Abstract Achieving net-zero carbon emissions goals requires tangible actions that regions, countries, sectors, and organizations should take to accelerate the energy transition along with a growing trend toward renewable energy sources. Digitalization, a phenomenon introduced by the transformative power of digital technologies, plays a key role in the energy transition process. Providing advancements in technology leads to significant changes in the way energy is produced, transmitted, and consumed. Specifically, through digital technologies, modern smart grids can enable high-class energy management by accommodating renewable energy sources most efficiently. In light of that, the paper discusses the impacts of digitalization on energy transition by highlighting its benefits and crucial incentives favoring investment processes. Moreover, it examines current trends in smart grids in European Countries with a focus on Italy. The aim is to provide a general overview of the investments needed to implement existing and new smart grid projects
By Marina Albanese; Università di Napoli Federico II    Monica Varlese; Università di Napoli Federico II
Presented by: Marina Albanese, Università di Napoli Federico II
Potential cartelization of critical minerals for the energy transition Abstract With demand for lithium, nickel and other critical raw materials rising, especially due to the energy transition, the idea that some mining countries would like to take advantage of their mineral deposits and control the future market (by eliminating competition among producers, reducing output and thereby forcing up prices) is gaining ground. In order to understand whether those cartelization attempts could succeed in some critical materials’ markets, it is of particular importance the quantification of the potential benefits deriving from the cartelization of a specific mineral. Following the seminal work by Pindyck, we apply his model of non-renewable resources extraction to the markets of copper, and calculate the optimal price and reserves trajectories in a competitive versus a monopolistic market.
By Nicola Comincioli; Università di Brescia    Ilenia Gaia Romani; Massachusetts Institute of Technology    Sergio Vergalli; Università di Brescia
Presented by: Nicola Comincioli, Università di Brescia
Citizen Engagement in the Energy Transition: Assessing the Impact of Regional Energy Initiatives on Energy Behaviors in German Households Abstract We evaluate the effectiveness of regional government initiatives in actively engaging citizens in the energy transition by promoting changes in energy behavior. Employing micro-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and insights from the regional-scale "Project 100% Erneuerbare-Energie-Regionen", we adopt a difference-in-differences approach alongside a mediation analysis to inspect the impact of residing in these regions on households’ energy consumption and their choices regarding renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency enhancements. Our findings reveal that while regional programs encourage the installation of solar panels, they do not reduce overall energy consumption, with a significant increase in heating use. This suggests that local initiatives alone may not drive energy-saving practices without considering the complex dynamics among different energy behaviors. This research highlights the importance of a comprehensive understanding of local energy programs and the need for policies that foster an inclusive approach to energy transition.
By Alessandro De Palma; Università di Trento    Marco Faillo; Università di Trento    Roberto Gabriele; Università di Trento
Presented by: Roberto Gabriele, Università di Trento
Session 123: MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula 13, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Luigi Marengo, LUISS Guido Carli
A Network Perspective on the DAX 30 Supply Chain: Stylized Facts and Resilience Abstract This paper employs network analysis techniques to investigate the tier 1 supplier and customer relationships of companies listed in the previous German DAX 30 index. We build a specific dataset comprising these, listed, focal companies and their tier 1 connections. We establish a series of key observations that shed light on prevalent structural network characteristics in this key chunk of the German economy, and report features that are often investigated in supply chain networks. Based on stylized facts in the buyer-seller matching literature, we identify four facts that allow for link heterogeneity (with skewness), the centrality of larger companies, the complementarity between large and smaller companies, and a multi-faceted hierarchy of the German system. These empirical regularities are consistent with some features of international production and can be used to test the resilience of German focal companies to recent shocks. Our results show that focal companies were significantly affected by the COVID-19 shock, but the recovery timing is shorter whenever diversification across regions and sectors is important. We find that although more central companies are potentially more susceptible to shocks spreading in the system, they have been faster in recovering primarily due to the diversification of the supplier base.
By Elisa Flori; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Nadia von Jacobi; Università di Trento    Maria Luigia Segnana; Università di Trento    Sandra Paterlini; Università di Trento
Presented by: Elisa Flori, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Italian Executives’ Pay: Performance or Power? Abstract The growth of Executives' pay has recently attracted wide interest in both public opinion and academic debate. At present, two theories prevail in the literature: the "managerial power" hypothesis and the "market-based" hypothesis. The former argues that rising rewards are the result of rent extraction by "powerful" managers, who can exploit weak institutions and regulatory gaps in corporate governance to extract rents, sometimes even at the expense of shareholders. The market-based hypothesis, on the other hand, argues that the growth of Executives' salaries could be driven either by the principal-agent problem of shareholders and CEOs, or by factors concerning the change in the demand for managerial skills such as changes in market structures and technologies, which have led to increased competition for managerial talent. However, neither theory has received conclusive empirical support to prevail over the other. Employing a novel dataset built from disclosure reports on Italian Listed Companies remuneration policies, which contains both individual- and firm- level data, we try to assess the role and the magnitude of power and performance in determining Directors' salaries, finding that both factors play an important role.
By Gabriele Palomba; Sapienza Università di Roma    Elisa Coltrinari; Sapienza Università di Roma    Michele Raitano; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Elisa Coltrinari, Sapienza Università di Roma
Navigating Crises. Organizational Innovation and Managerial Restructuring in Bad Times Abstract This paper investigates the interplay between financial frictions, organizational innovation and managerial restructuring among Italian small and medium-sized enterprises during the Great Financial Crisis. Using firm-level data from the VIII UniCredit survey, we find that financial constraints spurred managerial and organizational innovation, suggesting a Schumpeterian-like response to the downturn. The analysis reveals that this effect was stronger for relatively young and small firms operating in services industries. Limited entrenchment with financial institutions and propensity to engage in financial innovation facilitated firms' organizational transformations.
By Pierluigi Murro; LUISS Guido Carli    Valentina Peruzzi; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Pierluigi Murro, LUISS Guido Carli
Absolute, Relative and Rank-based Aspirations Abstract When should managers encourage high aspirations? Although high aspirations can increase effort, striving for perfection can be counterproductive in dynamic environments when opportunities are fleeting. Consistent with this idea, past work has shown that the optimal aspiration (the aspiration level that leads to the highest level of performance in the long-run) is lower in more turbulent environments. This past work assumes that agents care about absolute performance, but individuals are often motivated by performance shortfalls relative to others. Using a simple and analytically tractable model, we show that when performance shortfalls relative to others triggers search, the optimal aspiration may instead increase with turbulence or stay the same. Our analyses have interesting implications for target setting and for understanding how relative aspirations impact search and exploration in organizations.
By Jerker Denrell; Warwick Business School    Luigi Marengo; LUISS Guido Carli    Manuel Romagnoli; Friedrich Schiller University    Axel Zeijen; ETH Zurich
Presented by: Luigi Marengo, LUISS Guido Carli
Session 124: ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND METHODOLOGY October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula 14, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Antonella Palumbo, Università Roma Tre
Others as our own interest Abstract Others as our own interest
By Alessio Emanuele Biondo; Università di Catania    Giulio Burgio; Universitat Rovira i Virgili    Laura Mazzarino; Università di Catania    Alessandro Pluchino; Università di Catania
Presented by: Laura Mazzarino, Università di Catania
Model Uncertainty and Measures of Inequality of Opportunity Abstract We argue that substantive normative disagreements in the literature on equality of opportunity regarding which factors constitute circumstances imply substantial model uncertainty in empirical specifications. We address this issue using model averaging methods applied to linear and regression tree models. We investigate the implications of model uncertainty in estimating measures of absolute and relative inequality of opportunity (IOp) using data from the 2011 wave of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for 31 countries. We find that failure to account for model uncertainty and nonlinearity risks significantly overstating the degree of inequality of opportunity across the set of countries. We also explored using our IOp measures that are robust to model uncertainty in place of the intergenerational elasticity of earnings (IGE) in the Great Gatsby Curve (GGC). In this case, we find that not accounting for model uncertainty and nonlinearity would lead to an overstatement of the relationship between the degree of inequality of opportunity and income inequality.
By Giovanni Bernardo; Università di Napoli Federico II    Andros Kourtellos; University of Cyprus    Chih Ming Tan; University of North Dakota
Presented by: Andros Kourtellos, University of Cyprus
Richard Lipsey and the “tyranny” of a unique labour market equilibrium Abstract The article discusses Richard Lipsey’s (2000a, 2000b, 2010, 2016) criticism of the uniqueness of the macroeconomic equilibrium at constant inflation postulated by new-classical macroeconomic models. Lipsey’s position is analysed in the light of his early contribution to the debate on the Phillips curve (Lipsey 1960). There, as later, Lipsey’s argument rests on the assumption that the labour market, though characterised by a unique demand-and-supply equilibrium, may persist in disequilibria in the long run. Such proposition is discussed critically. Lipsey’s analysis can be seen as a clear expression of the fundamental theoretical difficulty in reconciling Keynesian macroeconomic analysis with the neoclassical postulates.
By Antonella Palumbo; Università Roma Tre
Presented by: Antonella Palumbo, Università Roma Tre
Session 125: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula 12, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Marco Veronese Passarella, Università dell'Aquila e Leeds University Business School
Environmental Regulation, Firm Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Volatility Abstract We build up an Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model incorporating environmental regulation and heterogeneous firms in order to investigate the interrelationships between firm heterogeneity, environmental policy, and macroeconomic volatility. The findings are as follows: First, firm heterogeneity has relevant implications for macroeconomic volatility, regardless of the type of shock being analysed. Second, a costreducing technical change in abatement entails strong distributional changes, resulting in an aggregate efficiency gain. Third, a carbon pricing shock causes the aggregate reaction to the stricter environmental policy to be nonlinear, amplifying the macroeconomic response than the analogous Representative agent counterpart. The key micro-parameters are estimated consistently with data of regulated firms under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).
By Fabio Di Dio; Sapienza Università di Roma    Lorenzo Frattarolo; Università di Verona
Presented by: Fabio Di Dio, Sapienza Università di Roma
More than Just Transition: Factors and Networks Behind the EU Regional Sustainability Performances Abstract This study sheds light on the interplay among environmental sustainability, technological innovation, and regional economic development within the European Union NUTS2 regions. By analyzing data on various socioeconomic and environmental variables, we uncover different stages of transition coexisting within the same country, emphasizing the significance of green transition strategies that account for regional cohesion. Our findings underscore the need for policies that foster just and inclusive development, considering the multidimensional challenges of sustainability. Additionally, we highlight the methodological importance of employing big data and machine learning techniques to capture the complexity of regional interactions effectively. Our neural network structure enables empirical advancements in understanding the innovation-environmental transitions nexus and its implications for economic convergence, informing evidence-based policymaking for more resilient and adaptive regional development strategies.
By Valeria Costantini; Università Roma Tre    Elena Paglialunga; Università Roma Tre    Angela Zanoni; Sapienza Università di Roma
Presented by: Angela Zanoni, Sapienza Università di Roma
Decomposition of the water footprint of food loss and waste: The case of Lithuanian supply chains Abstract Food production has significant impacts on the environment, particularly in terms of water usage. Losing food along the supply chain means that all resources, including water, used to produce that food are wasted. Through the lens of the water footprint, this paper expands the scope of water resource assessment by looking at the blue, green, and grey water footprints associated with food losses along the supply chain. The index decomposition analysis (IDA) is applied to quantitatively analyze the effect of four driving factors (total area sown, crop-mix, yield, and food loss rate) to water resources related to food losses along the agri-food chain in Lithuania for the period 2003-2021. The analysis only considers food crop products meant specifically for human consumption. The results indicate an increase in the water footprint associated with food losses along the supply chain, rising from 100.5 million m3 to 131.2 million m3. This represents a 30.6% increase over the period 2003-2021, equivalent to an average annual increase of 2.6%. The total agricultural area sown under crops emerges as the most significant contributing factor to this increase.
By Pier Paolo Miglietta; Università del Salento    Erika Ribašauskienė; Lithuanian Centre for Social Sciences    Ovidija Eičaitė; Lithuanian Centre for Social Sciences    Tomas Baležentis; Lithuanian Centre for Social Sciences    Giulio Paolo Agnusdei; Università di Bologna
Presented by: Pier Paolo Miglietta, Università del Salento
Circular economy innovations in a 2-area input-output stock-flow consistent dynamic model Abstract This study employs an empirically calibrated ecological two-area input-output stock-flow consistent model to analyse various circular economy (CE) policies and practices and their impacts on economic, social, and environmental variables. The research concludes that solely relying on shifts in the behaviour of households and private businesses is insufficient to achieve a just green transition. Two key reasons support this conclusion: competition forces driven by private interests may yield unintended consequences, and there is no universally optimal state for CE policies, each involving trade-offs. Therefore, government intervention is crucial. Coordination among national governments is paramount to prevent policies in one area from negatively affecting others. Additionally, a democratic planning system may empower public authorities to pursue the most pressing targets effectively. The findings indicate that CE policies generally lead to small negative impacts on value added, although exceptions exist, such as reductions in consumption levels in the EU or shifts towards service consumption, which can increase value added. CE policies tend to decrease CO2 emissions and material extraction, demonstrating their potential for environmental sustainability. However, their effectiveness varies depending on consumption patterns and production processes. While CE policies typically result in small negative impacts on employment, certain policies, such as those promoting the use of recycled inputs, may increase employment despite declines in value added. Positive economic effects are observed for female employment in CE policies oriented towards the care economy and social reproduction. The study also highlights changes in functional income inequality, government deficit, and current account balance resulting from CE policies, emphasizing the importance of considering distributional and macroeconomic implications, especially for countries in the Global South. Overall, the findings underscore the necessity of government intervention and policy coordination to achieve a just green transition, ensuring equitable outcomes across economic, social, and environmental dimensions.
By Marco Veronese Passarella; Università dell'Aquila e Leeds University Business School
Presented by: Marco Veronese Passarella, Università dell'Aquila e Leeds University Business School
Session 126: EDUCATION October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula Blu, Palazzo Battiferri (Primo piano)
Session Chair: Andrea Barigazzi, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Seeing Beyond the Stereotypes: Gender Bias in Tertiary Student Evaluations of Teachers Abstract This study examines gender bias in tertiary student evaluations of teachers (SETs). We find that although the gender of the teacher does not affect actual student performance, students perceive male professors as better than their female colleagues. We analyze the potential mediators of this cognitive bias and find that cognitive bias decreases with students’ knowledge of tertiary education and exposure to female professors, while prejudice against women is reinforced with greater exposure to male lecturers. The emergence of gender bias in SETs suggests that these evaluations cannot be used to compare male and female teachers at the undergraduate level. However, these tools can be potentially reliable for graduate students if they have been exposed to gender-balanced faculty.
By Paolo Coccorese; Università di Salerno    Roberto Dell'Anno; Università di Salerno    Marialuisa Restaino; Università di Salerno
Presented by: Roberto Dell'Anno, Università di Salerno
Do municipal investments in preschool education affect student achievement? Abstract Do municipal investments in preschool education affect student achievement? Giuseppe Rose1 | Carmela Ciccarelli1 Abstract The importance of public spending on preschool education and interventions for early childhood, such as kindergartens and other dedicated programs, is crucial for the cognitive and social development of children in the early stages of life. These investments are also key to long-term academic outcomes. In this regard, the present study aims to analyze the effect of public spending on preschool education and early childhood services, kindergartens, and minors in Italian municipalities on the INVALSI test results for second-grade students in Italian and Mathematics for the period 2013-2018. Endogeneity issues have been minimized using the instrumental variables method, leveraging the exogenous variation introduced by law no. 215/2012. Increased female representation in municipal councils significantly impacts the overall volume of local public expenditure and its distribution. Overall, the results of our analysis show that an increase in public spending on preschool education and childcare improves INVALSI scores in Mathematics.
By Giuseppe Rose; Università della Calabria    Carmela Ciccarelli; Università della Calabria
Presented by: Carmela Ciccarelli, Università della Calabria
Education and capabilities: an international analysis Abstract Education is becoming important in economics and modern societies: it is crucial for medium-long term growth and reveals to be one of the main social elevators. Ensuring equal educational opportunities has become an important tool for policymakers to foster social mobility, freedom and efficiency. To investigate educational equality of opportunity we adopt the capability approach framework. This paper is an attempt to shed light on the phenomenon of resilient students: those who are characterized by a low level of family background and achieve very high school grades. Integrating the OECD PISA databases from 2003 to 2018 we obtain 1611832 observations of students from 59244 schools and 37 OECD countries. The present paper contributes to the existing literature providing new methodologies to identify resilient students and analysing how individual and social conversion factors influence students' resilience. We estimate a multilevel regression model with fixed school intercepts. Our initial findings are that public conversion factors such as school characteristics are the most important determinants for the success of disadvantaged students.
By Eustachio Ferrulli; Università di Bari    Michele Capriati; Università di Bari
Presented by: Eustachio Ferrulli, Università di Bari
College attendance and the business cycle. Does the welfare regime influence the future of young adults? Abstract This study examines the relationship between the economic cycle and higher education demand among young adults in a set of European countries with different welfare regimes. Using data from 2005 to 2021 from the EU-SILC dataset, we focus on individuals aged 18 to 29 who have completed at least secondary education and still live with their families. We find a countercyclical pattern in university participation during economic crises, with an increase of 2.4% in the probability to attend university. A significantly countercyclical patterns are observed in countries with Mediterranean, post-socialist, and liberal welfare systems, while countries with socio-democratic and corporativist welfare systems do not show a statistically significant relationship between crisis and university attendance. However. the response to the economic downturn varies by household income, with young adults from more affluent families showing a more pronounced countercyclical effect. Considering all the alternative activities available to young people (working studying, being unemployed or inactive) we observe that the predicted probability of being a worker decreases, while the probability of being a university student or unemployed increases. This pattern holds especially for corporativist, Mediterranean and liberal regime, with important relative variations across income tertiles.
By Andrea Barigazzi; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia    Claudia Zola; Università di Milano
Presented by: Andrea Barigazzi, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Session 127: CENTRAL BANKING October 26, 2024 12:00 to 13:20 Location: Aula 01 3.0, Palazzo Battiferri (Piano terra)
Session Chair: Elena Seghezza, Università di Genova
Should Central Banks Respond to Persistent Cost-Push Shocks? Abstract If there is a non-negligible sensitivity of core Inflation to exogenous cost-push shocks and if a cost-push shock (for example, energy price) turns to be more persistent than core inflation for more than six quarters, it is optimal for central banks funds rate to respond not only to core inflation deviation from its target but also to respond relatively more to this cost-push shock, the more it is persistent, and early enough. This policy maker's differential response to persistent cost-push shocks with respect to core inflation is optimal because it decreases the correlation of core inflation to the persistent cost-push shock. Then, the persistence of core inflation persistence remains below the persistence of the cost-push shock.
By Jean-Bernard Chatelain; University Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne    Kirsten Ralf; ESCE Ecole Supérieure de Commerce Exterieur
Presented by: Jean-Bernard Chatelain, University Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne
Italy's Monetary Odyssey: Navigating Independence, Union, and Economic Challenges Abstract Italy's monetary policy has undergone a series of significant transformations, from a pre-reform landscape marked by challenges to a period of greater independence, and finally, to integration within the Eurozone's unified framework. This paper examines the economic consequences of these shifts, focusing on the complex relationship between central bank independence, monetary policy, and macroeconomic performance. The study adopts a historical perspective, dividing the analysis into three periods: The pre-reform period (1950s-1990s), the era of heightened independence (late 1980s-early 2000s), and the post-Euro adoption period (early 2000s-present). Using empirical analysis, theoretical considerations, and qualitative evidence, the research investigates changes in fiscal deficit, interest rates, debt, and inflation trends across these periods. Furthermore, it examines the political forces that shaped fiscal policy during these eras. The paper draws on extensive literature exploring the interplay between central bank independence and economic outcomes. It aims to shed light on the specific ways in which Italy's evolving monetary framework has impacted and been impacted by factors such as debt management, inflation control, and the broader European economic landscape.
By Hela Khalladi; University of Tunis El Manar    Cristiano Manfre; Tennessee State University
Presented by: Cristiano Manfre, Tennessee State University
How crises shaped the FED Abstract The Fed, like other central banks, is exposed to two types of capture: the first attributable to pressures from elected bodies and the second due to pressure from the financial sector. The elected bodies, having re-election as their goal, are less averse to inflation; while the financial community tends to favor regulatory, supervisory and monetary policies that enable them to achieve high profits. The hybrid composition of the Fed's governance constitutes an institutional model designed to minimize the risk of capture. The Board, owing their existence to elected bodies, should counter attempts to capture policy making by the banking community (channeled through the Reserve Banks). While the Reserve Banks act as a curb on the Administration's and Congress' propensity for inflationary policies.
By François Facchini; Université Paris Sorbonne    Pierluigi Morelli; Università di Genova    Giovanni Pittaluga; Università di Genova    Elena Seghezza; Università di Genova
Presented by: Elena Seghezza, Università di Genova