40th Annual Meeting of the Pennsylvania Economic Association

May 28, 2026
Time	Location	Event
15:30 to 19:30	HUB Atrium	Registration
16:00 to 18:00	Monongahela Room	Board of Directors Meeting (Invited Only)
18:00 to 19:30	Ohio Room	Thursday Evening Reception
May 29, 2026
Time	Location	Event
08:00 to 11:45	HUB Atrium	Registration
08:00 to 09:00	Ohio Room	Breakfast
09:00 to 10:15	HUB (Various Rooms)	F1: Breakout Session I
10:15 to 10:30	Ohio Room	Coffee Break
10:30 to 11:45	HUB (Various Rooms)	F2: Breakout Session II
12:00 to 12:45	Ohio Room	Keynote Luncheon Sponsored by Dean Prashanth Bharadwaj
12:30 to 12:45	Ohio Room	Opening Address by IUP President Michael Driscoll
12:45 to 13:45	Ohio Room	Keynote Address by The Honorable Dave L. Reed, "Business & Politics – It's all just economics"
13:45 to 16:00	HUB Atrium	Registration
14:15 to 15:30	HUB (Various Rooms)	F3: Breakout Session III
15:45 to 16:45	Susquehanna Room	Fed Lecture by Dr. Russell Mills, "National and Regional Economic Update"
17:00 to 18:00	Ohio Room	PEA40 Reception
May 30, 2026
Time	Location	Event
08:00 to 10:30	HUB Atrium	Registration
08:00 to 09:00	Ohio Room	Breakfast
09:00 to 10:15	HUB (Various Rooms)	S1: Breakout Session IV
10:15 to 10:30	Ohio Room	Coffee Break
10:30 to 11:45	HUB (Various Rooms)	S2: Breakout Session V
12:00 to 13:00	Susquehanna Room	General Assembly Meeting

Summary of All Sessions
Click here for an index of all participants

#	Date/Time	Title/Location	Papers
1	May 29, 2026 9:00-10:15	F1A: Health Economics: Social Determinants, Mental Health, and AI     Location: Allegheny Room A	3
2	May 29, 2026 9:00-10:15	F1B: Gender, Household Decisions, and Transfers in Developing Countries     Location: Allegheny Room B	3
3	May 29, 2026 9:00-10:15	F1C: International Finance and African Economies     Location: Susquehanna Room	3
4	May 29, 2026 9:00-10:15	F1D: Undergraduate Paper Competition I     Location: Conemaugh Room	3
5	May 29, 2026 9:00-10:15	F1E: Undergraduate Paper Competition II     Location: Knowlton Room	2
6	May 29, 2026 9:00-10:15	F1F: Graduate Paper Competition I     Location: Monongahela Room A	3
7	May 29, 2026 9:00-10:15	F1G: Graduate Paper Competition II     Location: Monongahela Room B	3
8	May 29, 2026 10:30-11:45	F2A: Financial Performance, Governance, and Inclusion     Location: Allegheny Room A	3
9	May 29, 2026 10:30-11:45	F2B: Housing, Urban Policy, and Commuting     Location: Allegheny Room B	3
10	May 29, 2026 10:30-11:45	F2C: Health Care: Access, Supply, and Financing     Location: Susquehanna Room	3
11	May 29, 2026 10:30-11:45	F2D: Labor Markets, Mobility, and Economic Education     Location: Knowlton Room	3
12	May 29, 2026 10:30-11:45	F2E: Undergraduate Paper Competition III     Location: Conemaugh Room	3
13	May 29, 2026 10:30-11:45	F2F: Graduate Paper Competition III     Location: Monongahela Room A	3
14	May 29, 2026 10:30-11:45	F2G: Graduate Paper Competition IV     Location: Monongahela Room B	2
15	May 29, 2026 14:15-15:30	F3A: Education: Outcomes, Attainment, and Curriculum     Location: Allegheny Room A	3
16	May 29, 2026 14:15-15:30	F3B:Development Economics: Agriculture, Fertility, and Climate     Location: Allegheny Room B	3
17	May 29, 2026 14:15-15:30	F3C: Empirical Policy Analysis     Location: Susquehanna Room	3
18	May 29, 2026 14:15-15:30	F3D: Health Economics, Technology, and Media     Location: Knowlton Room	3
19	May 29, 2026 14:15-15:30	F3E: Corporate Performance and Applied Analysis     Location: Monongahela Room A	3
20	May 29, 2026 14:15-15:30	F3F: Information, Media, and Entertainment Economics     Location: Monongahela Room B	4
21	May 30, 2026 9:00-10:15	S1A: Macroeconomics: Growth, Inflation, and Crises     Location: Allegheny Room A	3
22	May 30, 2026 9:00-10:15	S1B: Monetary Economics and Digital Currency     Location: Allegheny Room B	3
23	May 30, 2026 9:00-10:15	S1C: Industrial Organization and Market Structure     Location: Susquehanna Room	3
24	May 30, 2026 9:00-10:15	S1D: Regional Economics and Labor Markets     Location: Knowlton Room	3
25	May 30, 2026 9:00-10:15	S1E: Energy Economics and Transition     Location: Monongahela Room A	3
26	May 30, 2026 9:00-10:15	S1F: Financial Markets: Crypto, Gambling, and Funds     Location: Monongahela Room B	3
27	May 30, 2026 9:00-10:15	S1G: Development Economics: Labor, Transfers, and Welfare     Location: Conemaugh Room	3
28	May 30, 2026 10:30-11:45	S2A: Microeconomic Theory and Measurement     Location: Allegheny Room A	3
29	May 30, 2026 10:30-11:45	S2B: Education, AI, and Student Outcomes     Location: Allegheny Room B	3
30	May 30, 2026 10:30-11:45	S2C: Trade, Finance, and Public Transparency     Location: Knowlton Room	3
31	May 30, 2026 10:30-11:45	S2D: Consumer Behavior, Identity, and Culture     Location: Monongahela Room A	3
32	May 30, 2026 10:30-11:45	S2E: Business Operations and Consumer Decisions     Location: Monongahela Room B	3
33	May 30, 2026 10:30-11:45	S2F: Public Policy, Environment, and Human Capital     Location: Conemaugh Room	3

 

33 sessions, 98 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers

40th Annual Meeting of the Pennsylvania Economic Association
Detailed List of Sessions

Session 1: F1A: Health Economics: Social Determinants, Mental Health, and AI May 29, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Allegheny Room A
Session Chair: Donka Mirtcheva Brodersen, The College of New Jersey
Exploring the Relationship between Social Determinants of Health and Catastrophic Health Expenditures since 2000 Abstract Although many households become financially overwhelmed by health-related bills, the topic is largely understudied in the United States. Low income and other social determinants of health can increase financial burden or bankruptcy risk due to catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), typically defined as a percentage of income (we use both 10% and 20% in this analysis). Utilizing the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 2000-2023, we perform multivariate, logistic regressions on CHE, controlling for household demographics (including age, race, and region), education and income levels, insurance coverage, health conditions, and year. The odds of having CHE have declined from the early 2000s (peak OR = 1.841, p<0.001 in 2004 vs. 2023) but are somewhat higher than in the mid 2010s (lowest OR = 0.806, p<0.04 in 2014 vs. 2023). Catastrophic expenses are strongly associated with families whose incomes are in the lowest quintile (p<0.001) and indicators for a member having cancer, poor health, mental distress, and disability (p<0.001). In addition to having higher odds of CHE, low-income families are more likely to report having the negative health outcomes previously listed (p<0.001), except for cancer. Despite having significantly lower rates of being uninsured and improved health across several indicators by 2023, over one-third of low-income families continue to face catastrophic health expenses.
By Sean MacIsaac    Brandon Vick; IUP
Presented by: Sean MacIsaac,
Discussant:   Farah Farahati, Senior Medical Economics Advisor
Cost Effectiveness of AI Enabled Home Neuromodulation for Parkinson’s Disease Abstract Parkinson’s disease (PD) imposes an estimated $61.5 billion annual economic burden in the United States, driven by hospitalizations, long term care, and caregiver time. Existing treatments—including deep brain stimulation (DBS), transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), and pharmacologic therapy—are effective but costly, invasive, or difficult to scale. This study evaluates the cost effectiveness of a novel AI enabled, amplitude modulated transcranial pulsed current stimulation (am tPCS) device designed for home based neuromodulation. Using the ISPOR PICOTS ComTeC framework and a scenario based economic model from a public payer perspective, we estimate incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranging from $18,000–$52,000 per QALY gained and return on investment (ROI) values of 1.2–1.9 over 3–5 years. These findings suggest that AI enabled home neuromodulation may represent a cost effective, scalable, and value aligned therapeutic option for mild to moderate PD, with implications for Medicare, state Medicaid programs, and value based care models.
By Farah Farahati; Senior Medical Economics Advisor    Elsy Kizhakethalackal; BGSU Firelands    Brian Sloboda; University of Maryland, Global Campus
Presented by: Farah Farahati, Senior Medical Economics Advisor
Discussant:   Donka Mirtcheva Brodersen, The College of New Jersey
Income and Gender Disparities in Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic Abstract This paper examines the relationship between income and mental health in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, a period marked by both a public health emergency and a significant economic shock. Stay-at-home orders and workplace disruptions disproportionately affected workers unable to perform their jobs remotely, contributing to financial instability and social isolation with potential consequences for mental health. Using data from the 2019 and 2021 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), this study analyzes mental health diagnoses across five family income groups for men and women. To account for variation in policy environments, state-level measures from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker are incorporated. The analysis employs pooled logistic regression models with controls for pandemic stringency, demographic characteristics, employment status, and macroeconomic conditions, enabling comparisons of mental health outcomes before and during the pandemic. The results show a pronounced income gradient in mental health. During the pandemic, higher-income women and men with family income above $200,000 were less likely to have a mental health diagnosis. Pandemic policy measures show no significant effect for women, whereas among men school closures are associated with improved mental health, whereas workplace closures with worse outcomes. Across all specifications, unemployment and lower income are consistently linked to poorer mental health, reinforcing the persistence of income-based disparities both before and during the pandemic. These findings suggest that targeted policy interventions integrating economic support with mental health services, particularly for lower-income and unemployed populations, may help mitigate the unequal mental health impacts of future economic and public health crises.
By Donka Mirtcheva Brodersen; The College of New Jersey
Presented by: Donka Mirtcheva Brodersen, The College of New Jersey
Discussant:   Brandon Vick, IUP
Session 2: F1B: Gender, Household Decisions, and Transfers in Developing Countries May 29, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Allegheny Room B
Session Chair: Divya Balasubramaniam, Saint Joseph's University
Effect of sex composition and birth order on nutrition among young children in India: Evidence from The National Family Health Survey Abstract Evidence on the role of gender in childhood health outcomes, especially in developing countries, is well documented. Existing literature underscores the importance of excess female mortality in developing countries, but the role of gender in such health outcomes, especially aspects of improving children’s health outcomes, is limited to the best of knowledge. Understanding gender differences can be crucial in identifying the pathway leading to poorer health outcomes for girls than for boys, which can suggest the underlying reasons for excess female child morbidity and/or mortality. Using the logit regression model, this paper examines the impact of sex composition of older siblings within the household on gender differences in childhood weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ) in India after controlling for children’s characteristics such as age, sex, birth order, and mother’s characteristics such as education, occupation, and other relevant household and community characteristics. Using sample data from 45,000 households surveyed by the National Family Health Survey 2015-2016 in India, this paper finds that sex composition and birth order within the household influence the weight–for–age z-scores of girls and boys differently. The preliminary results show evidence that only girls who were born after multiple same-sex siblings experience poor outcomes, i.e., girls born after multiple opposite-sex older siblings are not necessarily worse off than their siblings. Additionally, there is no evidence that boys who were born after multiple daughters have better health outcomes. This result is particularly interesting because it challenges the traditional belief of the pervasive nature of preference for sons in countries like India. One favorable aspect of this result is the plausible effects of public health interventions that address gender equality.
By Divya Balasubramaniam; Saint Joseph's University
Presented by: Divya Balasubramaniam, Saint Joseph's University
Discussant:   Shamma Alam, Dickinson College
Covid-19 Lockdowns and Sex Ratio is India Abstract India has long exhibited a male-biased sex ratio at birth, primarily attributed to son preference and the use of sex-selective abortion. Yet the most recent National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019–21) shows a less male-biased ratio than its predecessor, raising the question of whether this reflects a fundamental change in preferences or temporary disruptions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we explore how the pandemic and associated lockdowns may have shaped reproductive outcomes and contributed to the observed shift. Using NFHS-5 data collected before and after the onset of the pandemic, we examine changes in sex ratios, birth rates, and pregnancy and child outcomes. We find that women most likely to use sex selection, those with 12 or more years of education, show a statistically significant reduction in giving birth to a son, while there is little effect on those with less education. Furthermore, the most educated women also show a significantly higher birth rate, and the birth rate for girls increases substantially more than for boys.
By Shamma Alam; Dickinson College    Claus Portner; Seattle University
Presented by: Shamma Alam, Dickinson College
Discussant:   Javed Younas, American University of Sharjah
More Than a Lesson: The Role of Educational Context and Gender in Nutrition Education Outcomes Abstract This study evaluates the impact of a randomized nutrition education intervention on elementary school students’ healthy eating behavior. The intervention comprises two distinct treatments, administered separately to boys and girls: one group receives nutrition education in a neutral setting, integrated into the science curriculum, while the other receives it within a religious context, as part of the religious studies curriculum. Students’ dietary choices are measured through lunch experiments conducted after the intervention and again up to three months later. We document significant framing and gender effects. First, while nutrition education improved students’ knowledge of healthy eating overall, the effect was stronger among participants in the religious treatment group. Second, significant improvements in dietary choices, which persisted months after the intervention, were observed only among girls who received the intervention in the religious studies context. Our findings underscore the importance of tailoring nutrition education to specific educational and social contexts, while also incorporating reinforcement measures to sustain long-term impact.
By Javed Younas; American University of Sharjah
Presented by: Javed Younas, American University of Sharjah
Discussant:   Divya Balasubramaniam, Saint Joseph's University
Session 3: F1C: International Finance and African Economies May 29, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Susquehanna Room
Session Chair: Hanafiah Harvey, Pennsylvania State University, Mont Alto
Financial Inclusion and Legal Traditions in Africa Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential relationship between financial inclusion and inherited legal traditions in African countries. Indeed, as African countries were not colonized by the same colonial powers, they inherited two major legal traditions: Common Law and German-Romanian law. Each tradition carries different values and philosophies. They also inherited different foreign languages, different economic and political institutions and different relations with the former colonizer. Thus, these legacies have reconfigured African countries since the 20th century and until today. These legacies can determine the level of innovation, entrepreneurship and the dynamics of change in a globalized world. African countries are thus marked by disparities in terms of economic development, economic growth, economic openness, poverty, banking system, financial market, financial innovation, financial inclusion, etc. This paper assumes that countries with a common law tradition are more chance to have inclusive institutions, innovations, entrepreneurship and to allow high financial inclusion for their citizens. The typical example is the USA and Great Britain. Based on a qualitative and quantitative analysis and by referring to a benchmark of developed countries, it’s possible to test this potential relationship in the case of African countries. This study will mobilize, in addition to the tools of economic analysis, tools of analysis from other social sciences: law, political science, history and geography.
By Khalid HAMMES; Mohammed V University in Rabat    HICHAM BADDI; Mohammed V University in Rabat
Presented by: Khalid HAMMES, Mohammed V University in Rabat
Discussant:   Hanafiah Harvey, Pennsylvania State University, Mont Alto
Exchange Rate Movements and Trade Balance Adjustment in a Resource-Rich Economy: Symmetric and Asymmetric Evidence from Brunei Darussalam Abstract This study investigates Brunei Darussalam’s trade relationships with six major partners—Australia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the United States—using quarterly data from 2003 to 2025. Employing both linear (symmetric) and nonlinear (asymmetric) models, it evaluates the J-curve hypothesis within Brunei’s resource-dependent economy and fixed exchange rate regime. The results show that exchange rate movements influence bilateral trade balances differently across countries, with each model capturing distinct short-run adjustment dynamics. Long-run outcomes also vary, underscoring the value of nonlinear specifications. The symmetric model identifies J-curve effects for Australia and China, while the asymmetric model finds them for China and Malaysia. Notably, China is the only case in which both models yield consistent evidence of the J-curve, indicating a robust exchange-rate–trade-balance relationship. Overall, the findings highlight the significant role of exchange rate changes in shaping Brunei’s trade performance and the importance of accounting for nonlinear behavior when analyzing these effects.
By Hanafiah Harvey; Pennsylvania State University, Mont Alto
Presented by: Hanafiah Harvey, Pennsylvania State University, Mont Alto
Discussant:   Yaya Sissoko, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Do Trees Matter for Sovereign Risk? Evidence from West Africa Abstract Does deforestation affect how governments are priced in international capital markets? This paper studies this question in the context of West Africa, where forest loss has been rapid and fiscal vulnerabilities are rising. While prior work shows that climate risk is reflected in sovereign borrowing costs, there is little evidence on whether gradual environmental degradation, such as deforestation, enters sovereign risk assessments. We build a panel dataset of fifteen countries from 2001 to 2023 and estimate the relationship between annual primary forest loss and borrowing costs, measured by interest payments and sovereign bond spreads. To address endogeneity, we use a shift–share instrument that interacts global commodity price shocks with country-level crop suitability. The preliminary results indicate that higher forest loss is associated with higher borrowing costs, with stronger effects in more forest-dependent economies and during periods of climate stress. These findings suggest environmental degradation may be priced through both fiscal and risk channels, with implications for climate–debt policy initiatives.
By Inoussa Boubacar; USDA Forest Service    Prakash Nepal; USDA Forest Service    Yaya Sissoko; Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: Yaya Sissoko, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   Khalid HAMMES, Mohammed V University in Rabat
Session 4: F1D: Undergraduate Paper Competition I May 29, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Conemaugh Room
Session Chair: Thomas Armstrong,
Resource Rich, Peace Poor: Examining the Onset of Civil War in Resource Rich Countries Abstract This research examines the determinants of civil war onset in resource-rich countries using a panel dataset of 84 countries from 2000 to 2019. Economic, institutional, and structural factors are analyzed using logistic regression to assess their influence on the likelihood of civil war onset at a low- and high-intensity battle death threshold. Linear regressions are also conducted to serve as robustness checks of the logistic models. At the lower threshold, the most robust regressors positively affecting the onset of civil war are ethnic fractionalization and logged military expenditures. The most robust predictors negatively related to the onset of civil war are institutional quality, peace duration, and logged natural resource rents. At the higher battle-death threshold, institutional quality and logged natural resource rents remain negatively and significantly associated with the onset of internal conflict. Additionally, logged military expenditures retain their positive and significant association with civil war onset.
By Kelly Szolek; Indiana University of Pennsylvania    Jackson White; Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: Kelly Szolek, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   Linnea Tix, Union College
Effects of Population Aging on Income Inequality: Evidence from State-Level Panel Data Across the United States Abstract This research seeks to investigate the relationship between population aging and income inequality within the US. Our findings indicate that population aging has a positive effect on income inequality, which likely stems from the cumulative advantages experienced throughout the lifetimes of the elderly as life-cycle income dispersion dynamics cause intragenerational inequality to increase as the generation has aged. Thus, as the elderly become a greater proportion of the population, their generation’s heightened inequality increases the state’s overall inequality. We also find this positive effect of population aging on income inequality to be weakened by an increase in the share of income generated from the financial sector. This result indicates that access to financial resources can limit the harmful effects of population aging on income inequality.
By Linnea Tix; Union College
Presented by: Linnea Tix, Union College
Discussants:      Paige Clawson, Indiana University of Pennsylvania      Allison Johnson, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Does the Presence of Universities Increase Retail Theft Rates in Pennsylvania Counties? Abstract This study investigates the determinants of retail theft rates across all 67 Pennsylvania counties using a panel dataset from 2013 to 2019 and 2022 to 2023, with a gap to exclude the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2021. Regressors representing the Strain Theory, along with deterrence and university covariates are evaluated in relation to county-level retail theft rates. Based on the results of a Hausman (1978) test, a two-way fixed effects model is used to analyze the sample and to control for unobserved heterogeneity. Results show that the presence of universities and the percentage of male population have a positive and significant correlation to retail theft. Meanwhile, there is a significant negative association between the percentage of the population with a Bachelor’s degree and police per capita with the dependent variable. These results suggest that policies could be implemented around universities and their surrounding towns to alleviate these increasing retail theft rates in Pennsylvania counties.
By Paige Clawson; Indiana University of Pennsylvania    Allison Johnson; Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: Allison Johnson, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   Kelly Szolek, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Session 5: F1E: Undergraduate Paper Competition II May 29, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Knowlton Room
Session Chair: Orhan Kara, West Chester University
Estimating the Impact of Cap-and-Trade Policies on Total CO2 Emissions and Economic Performance for California and New York Abstract This paper estimates the impact of cap-and-trade policies on total CO2 emissions and economic performance in California and New York. California and New York implemented a cap-and-trade policy in 2013 and 2009, respectively. In this paper, I evaluate the impact of this policy on CO2 emissions and (real) GDP per capita using the synthetic control method (Abadie, 2020). Using annual data and a donor pool of 38 states without the cap-and-trade policy, I construct a “synthetic” California and New York that emulates the evolution of CO2 and GDP per capita in the absence of this policy. I hypothesize that CO2 emissions per capita after the policy implementation have decreased relative to a no-policy counterfactual for both states. However, the policy may affect the growth rate of GDP, so I also expect real GDP per capita to grow more slowly compared to the counterfactual for the two states. The results show that, after policy implementation, observed CO₂ emissions per capita are consistently lower than the synthetic CO2 in both states, suggesting that cap-and-trade policies contributed to reductions in emissions. On the other hand, the observed growth rate of real GDP per capita continues to grow after treatment in both states, while the synthetic GDP remains below the observed. The synthetic GDP also grows more slowly for California and stagnates for New York. Placebo tests using RMSPE ratios yield a p-value of 0.0769 for CO₂ and 0.0256 for GDP in both states, providing evidence of treatment effects. Overall, the findings suggest that cap-and-trade policies in California and New York reduced CO₂ per capita. However, real GDP per capita shows no evidence of a negative effect, suggesting emissions reductions without clear economic cost. Limitations include a shorter pre-treatment period for GDP and potential overfitting from reliance on lagged predictors.
By Garrett Ody; Ohio University
Presented by: Garrett Ody, Ohio University
Discussant:   Emma Hendrickson, Saint Joseph's University
The Case for Disparate Impact Regulations: Evidence on Race, Land-use, and Food Insecurity in Florida’s K-12 Public Schools Abstract This paper analyzes the racialized, spatial association between landfill proximity and food insecurity levels in Florida’s K-12 public schools. Using geographic information systems (GIS) data and school-level demographic and socioeconomic controls, I estimate conditional correlations between distance to the nearest operational landfill and a multidimensional food insecurity index composed of free/reduced lunch eligibility, food desert designation, and after-school meal program availability. Environmental justice is discussed in the context of historic disparate impact regulations set forth by the 1964 Civil Rights Act and previously enforced by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The study underscores the necessity of disparate impact regulations by determining a statistically significant racial disparity in the strength of a positive correlation between landfill proximity and food insecurity. The findings suggest that schools with higher proportions of nonwhite students exhibit a stronger association between the presence of a nearby landfill and their food security levels. The results further suggest an inequitable distribution of supportive resources across school communities, positing that “colorblind” policies both reinforce and perpetuate injustice.
By Emma Hendrickson; Saint Joseph's University
Presented by: Emma Hendrickson, Saint Joseph's University
Discussant:   Garrett Ody, Ohio University
Session 6: F1F: Graduate Paper Competition I May 29, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Monongahela Room A
Session Chair: Zachary Klingensmith, Washington and Jefferson College
Reconciling Meritocracy and Diversity Abstract Hiring and similar selection processes often entail application costs that are heterogeneous between workers and that may affect some workers' willingness to apply. I analyze a model in which merit-maximizing firms optimally offer more favorable hiring policies to worker groups with higher application costs in order to encourage additional applications. I then show which information structures over cost lead the firm to hire higher cost workers and show characteristics of optimal information structures for cost-weighted worker welfare functions.
By Leah Hunt; Penn State University
Presented by: Leah Hunt, Penn State University
Discussant:   James Stratton, Harvard University
Risk, Reputation, and Dynamic Renegotiation in an Imperfectly Competitive Labor Market Abstract How does imperfect labor market competition affect workers’ behavior within the firm? I develop a model of career concerns under imperfect competition, in which employment contracts are incomplete, outside offers are infrequent, and wages are dynamically renegotiated in response to performance. These features generate an asymmetry in the equilibrium wage path: workers receive small wage increases after unexpectedly strong performance, but large wage reductions after unexpectedly poor performance. In consequence, workers (1) target acceptable rather than exceptional performance; (2) avoid risk; and (3) face a compressed wage distribution, relative to the competitive benchmark. The model suggests a unified explanation for evidence on asymmetric wage adjustment, performance targeting in organizations, and managerial conservatism in large firms.
By James Stratton; Harvard University
Presented by: James Stratton, Harvard University
Discussant:   Yimin Wang,
Understanding Entrepreneurship over Business Cycles Abstract Entrepreneurship and innovation has long been recognized as a powerful tool for economic advancement (Audretsch et al., 2006; Schumpeter, 1942). The dynamics of entrepreneurship and innovation over business cycles remain inadequately addressed. Exploiting commuting zone level variations in the severity of Great Recession shocks, I first estimate the hysteresis effects of the Great Recession on business startups. I find that the hard-hit areas experienced dampened business startup activities in the years following. These effects are evident on both employer and non-employer startups. Using restricted-access YTS data, I find heterogeneous effects across industries, with effects concentrated in industries including agriculture, construction, and finance. I then estimate the effects of unemployment on entrepreneurship and innovation. To address endogeneity, I propose a novel shift-share instrument that exploits the pre-determined variations in industry composition and current unemployment shocks by industry. My results clearly reject the “unemployment push” theory that unemployment spurs entrepreneurial activities.
By Yimin Wang
Presented by: Yimin Wang,
Discussant:   Leah Hunt, Penn State University
Session 7: F1G: Graduate Paper Competition II May 29, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Monongahela Room B
Session Chair: William McAndrew, Gannon University
Macro Consequences of Diet Quality and Health Abstract Healthcare spending constituted the largest share (27%) of the federal budget amounting to $1.7 Trillion, rising annually at the unsustainable rate of 7.5%, and 90% of this spending has been used to treat chronic diseases. Chronic diseases burden 60-70% of the population with the prevalence expected to increase. I establish three key empirical results: better diets are correlated with less chronic diseases, better diets are costlier, chronic diseases impact earnings. First, including these results as features into a simplified two-period model, I identify a structural wedge between private and social optimal choices of diet quality. Households under-invest in diet quality because they do not internalize the fiscal externalities of public health costs and lost tax revenue. I then evaluate three policy designs related to food subsidies: item-specific restrictions, price incentives, and in-kind transfers. I demonstrate analytically that restrictions and price subsidies are largely ineffective due to the fungibility of subsidies for infra-marginal recipients and the price inelasticity of diet quality respectively. In-kind transfers of high quality diets as in the recent "Food-Is-Medicine" movement correct for the externalities as it directly results in socially optimal diets. Next, I expand the simplified model into a general equilibrium Aiyagari model with heterogeneity in assets, productivity, and health, calibrated to US data. I find that replacing existing benefits with high quality diet food bundles for the bottom 13–19.5% of the income distribution reduces the prevalence of chronic diseases by 6.6–10 percentage points and lowers aggregate medical spending by 1.6–2.4% of GDP. Importantly, expanding coverage to the 19.5% percentile yields a pareto improvement, generating welfare gains for both recipients (+29.8%) and non-recipients (+6.6%) thereby resolving the structural wedge, and the double paying inefficiency wherein taxpayers fund both the socially inefficient diet qualities through the existing food programs and the subsequent medical costs of chronic diseases.
By Jonas Ho; University of California - Irvine
Presented by: Jonas Ho, University of California - Irvine
Discussant:   Isabelle Dallaire, West Virginia University
Investigating the Effects of Legal Changes on Domestic Violence Abstract This paper examines how legal recognition of emotional abuse affects key social and health outcomes in the United States. While nearly half of states do not include emotional abuse in their statutory definitions of domestic abuse, this omission can shape victims’ decisions around leaving relationships, pursuing custody, and maintaining access to health insurance. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, I analyze the impact of adopting emotional-abuse provisions on reported rapes, marriages, divorces, and fertility-related outcomes, including births and abortions. The analysis draws on crime data from the Uniform Crime Reports, fertility and abortion data from the Guttmacher Institute, and population and marriage statistics from the U.S. Census. By linking legislative definitions of abuse to measurable demographic and criminal outcomes, this study provides new evidence on how expanding legal recognition of emotional abuse may alter both victim behavior and broader social patterns.
By Isabelle Dallaire; West Virginia University
Presented by: Isabelle Dallaire, West Virginia University
Discussant:   Brianna Funderburk, University of Pittsburgh
The Financial Strain of School Choice: Charter School Competition and Special Education Funding Abstract This study examines how charter school expansion affects special education funding in traditional public school districts (TPSDs) across the United States. Using a continuous difference-in-differences approach with propensity score weighting, I analyze how increases in charter school enrollment within a TPSD influence federal and state special education funding per student. Results show that greater charter competition leads to modest but statistically significant declines in federal special education funding, particularly in states where charter schools are legally designated as independent school districts. These effects appear to be driven primarily by the higher shares of non-disabled students attending charter schools, which alters the enrollment composition of TPSDs and reduces their federal funding allocations. In contrast, state-level special education funding remains largely unaffected. These findings suggest that current federal funding formulas may inadequately account for the fiscal consequences of charter school growth. As charter schools expand, TPSDs may face increasing financial strain in providing mandated special education services. These results underscore the need for policy reforms to ensure equitable and sustainable funding for students with disabilities across both charter and traditional public school settings.
By Brianna Funderburk; University of Pittsburgh
Presented by: Brianna Funderburk, University of Pittsburgh
Discussant:   Jonas Ho, University of California - Irvine
Session 8: F2A: Financial Performance, Governance, and Inclusion May 29, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Allegheny Room A
Session Chair: Riza Emekter, Robert Morris University
The Value of Market Multiples in Predicting Stock Performance Abstract Most analysts use market multiples as a practical and viable method in stock and business valuation. This paper tests the validity of market multiples as a predictor of stocks’ performance. Stocks with relatively lower multiples are considered undervalued. If this is valid, one should be able to generate abnormal return by buying stocks with lower market multiples. Two types of multiples are the most common: Stock market price multiples (P) and enterprise value (EV) multiples. The popular denominators are sales per share, book value per share, cash flow (and free cash flow) per share, and EBITDA. The most popular market multiples are price to earnings ratio (P/E), price to book ratio (P/B), price to sales ratio (P/S), price to free cash flow ratio (P/C), and Enterprise value to EBITDA ratio (EV/EBITDA). The sample in this study is the companies in Standard and Poor’s 500 index. The sample includes the quarterly data of these companies from march 1990 to march 2023. The companies are grouped based on the industries/sectors and they are ranked based on the market multiples. The performance of the companies with the lowest multiples are compared with the group and other benchmarks. In our regression model, the only multiple that predicts superior returns is price to cash flow ratio (P/CF). The remaining four multiples are not significantly predict the future stock returns. We used market capitalization of each company and market return as the control variable.
By Riza Emekter; Robert Morris University    Benjamas Jirasakuldech; Slippery Rock University
Presented by: Riza Emekter, Robert Morris University
Discussant:   Khalid HAMMES, Mohammed V University in Rabat
Measuring Financial Inclusion in Africa : A Multidimensional Index Approach Abstract Despite the growing attention paid to financial inclusion, both in the economic and financial literature and in public policies, no consensus has yet been established on the extent of its measurement, whether in terms of the dimensions to be retained, the variables to be mobilized or the aggregation methods used. Indeed, several approaches have been developed to understand this concept, each based on different theoretical foundations and distinct indicators. However, the resulting measures have many limitations. The weights used remain arbitrary, the evaluation is limited to the dimensions of access, availability and use. The economic, institutional and social specificities of the countries studied are often not taken into account. In this context, this paper aims to critically analyze the different definitions and measures of financial inclusion and to develop a new multidimensional index. It aims to overcome the identified limitations by integrating previously neglected dimensions and replacing the arbitrary weighting of the distance approach with a statistical method based on principal component analysis. This index is calculated on a sample of African countries. This makes it possible to question the adequacy of existing measurement tools to the economic, institutional and social specificities of these contexts. The comparison of the results obtained with those of the commonly used indices finally makes it possible to assess the relevance and robustness of the proposed index.
By HICHAM BADDI; Mohammed V University in Rabat    Khalid HAMMES; Mohammed V University in Rabat    Fadwa BETANE; Mohammed V University in Rabat
Presented by: Khalid HAMMES, Mohammed V University in Rabat
Discussant:   Ralph Sonenshine, American University
Impact of Board Composition of Director Diversity on Environmental, Social, and Governance Scores and Financial Performance Abstract Over the past several years scholars have been actively studying the impact of board diversity on corporate performance. As part of this line of inquiry, researchers have examined the effect of board diversity on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) activities. This study revisits this topic by assessing the differential impact of board diversity on ESG scores based on company type. We find evidence that diversity within the board of directors does indeed impact ESG ratings with female representation having a negative impact on social ratings while female, non-white representation has a positive effect on weighted ESG and social ratings. Moreover, age has a negative impact on weighted ESG and governance ratings, while the presence of outside board of directors positively impacts environmental scores. Also, our results indicate differences by company type, with female representation having a negative impact on weighted ESG, environmental, and social scores for S&P companies (not in the NASDAQ). Furthermore, we find, using a difference- in- differences (DiD) method, that the NASDAQ rule requires at least one minority member to be on the board, to have a negative impact on governance ratings. Finally, we found limited evidence that female board representation has a positive influence on Tobin’s q and return on assets, specifically among S&P companies.
By Ralph Sonenshine; American University
Presented by: Ralph Sonenshine, American University
Discussant:   Riza Emekter, Robert Morris University
Session 9: F2B: Housing, Urban Policy, and Commuting May 29, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Allegheny Room B
Session Chair: Eli Kochersperger, Kean University
Herding Behavior and Bubbles in Global Housing Markets during Periods of Uncertainty Abstract This study investigates herding behavior in global housing markets in the euro and advanced economies outside euro areas from 1975 to 2024. Based on the quantile regression analysis, the degree of herding behavior does vary across regions and regimes. Herding behavior in housing market exists for countries outside euro area when housing market is in extreme condition. On the other hand, euro housing markets show greater dispersion from the overall market during normal market periods, weak business conditions, and high equity market volatility, suggesting economic agents are more likely to behave rationally when it comes to housing investments. Housing markets in both regions tend to respond to a down market by following the herd. When uncertainties in the global economic policy, oil prices, and energy prices are heightened, only housing markets in euro areas react with the herding behavior. Additionally, herding behavior is stronger in the housing markets in and outside euro areas when economic agents are pessimistic as indicated by negative world sentiment index. However, housing markets in both areas are immune to changes in European economic policy and show no evidence of herding behavior in response to high uncertainty. Herding behavior during the regimes of high transaction volume based on home sales units and crisis periods will also be investigated. Lastly, the herding–bubble Granger-causality relationship and the destabilization effect on housing and stock markets will be examined.
By Benjamas Jirasakuldech; Slippery Rock University    Riza Emekter; Robert Morris University
Presented by: Benjamas Jirasakuldech, Slippery Rock University
Discussant:   Neil Meredith, West Texas A&M University
Housing Voucher Discrimination and Deaths of Despair Abstract Housing policy relating to the opioid epidemic is receiving increased scrutiny. Concerns have arisen that rejecting housing vouchers is harming public health. We estimate the relationship between legalizing housing discrimination of Section 8 housing vouchers (VDA) and deaths of despair using state level mortality data on U.S. adults from the Centers for Disease and Control (CDC) database. Leveraging 2015 legislation in Texas and Indiana that legalizes Section 8 housing voucher discrimination, results suggest the policy increased the prescription opioid mortality rate by 2.438 deaths per 100,000 people or 2,557 excess deaths. The findings imply that legalizing Section 8 housing discrimination may worsen public health in the ongoing opioid crisis.
By Neil Meredith; West Texas A&M University
Presented by: Neil Meredith, West Texas A&M University
Discussant:   Eli Kochersperger, Kean University
Reverse Commuting in Polycentric Cities: A Network-Based Measure Abstract Reverse commuting is typically measured using either distance from a central business district or simple inflow-outflow comparisons. These measures are intuitive, but they impose a center-based view of urban structure that becomes harder to interpret as employment decentralizes and metropolitan areas become more polycentric. We propose a network-based measure that defines commute direction relative to endogenous tract centrality in the metropolitan commuting system. Using tract-level U.S. Census LODES origin-destination data, we construct commuting networks for major metropolitan areas and compare the resulting classifications to standard in/out and distance-based measures. We find that conventional approaches often yield materially different estimates of reverse commuting, with disagreement especially pronounced in more decentralized metros. These differences suggest that commonly used measures can mischaracterize commuting patterns in settings where employment is organized around multiple centers rather than a single downtown core.
By Eli Kochersperger; Kean University    Daniel Centuriao; West Virginia University
Presented by: Eli Kochersperger, Kean University
Discussant:   Benjamas Jirasakuldech, Slippery Rock University
Session 10: F2C: Health Care: Access, Supply, and Financing May 29, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Susquehanna Room
Session Chair: MD MARUF UL ALAM, Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas
Chiropractic Supply in Pennsylvania Abstract As an alternative to opioids for pain treatment, the number of people seeking chiropractic care has increased, but the supply of chiropractors may be a constraint on access to care. In this study, we examine the supply of chiropractors and chiropractic businesses in Pennsylvania. Using state and federal datasets, we apply descriptive statistics, geographic mapping, and correlational analysis to explore patterns and trends over time. We find evidence of a decrease in supply over the past decade. Rural areas of the state, which already had less access to care, have seen the steepest decreases. The Pittsburgh metro area has substantially higher access to care than other parts of the state, with per-capita chiropractor counts nearly twice as high as those in the Philadelphia and Lehigh Valley regions. We further find that employment per establishment has increased, offering evidence of consolidation in the industry. Our findings provide insights about the chiropractic labor force and inform public health concerns about access to chiropractic care in Pennsylvania.
By Gregory Collins; Muhlenberg College    Sara Legnola; Muhlenberg College
Presented by: Gregory Collins, Muhlenberg College
Discussant:   Farah Farahati, Senior Medical Economics Advisor
Karma or housing to Health: When 'We' Replaces 'I' in Medicaid Financing Abstract Housing instability is a major driver of avoidable Medicaid spending, yet supportive housing remains chronically underfunded despite strong evidence of cost effectiveness. This review synthesizes economic evaluations from Section 1115 demonstration waivers, quasi experimental studies, and state level cost benefit analyses to examine how housing interventions reduce high cost utilization among Medicaid beneficiaries. Across eighteen states, supportive housing programs have reduced emergency department visits by 30–63 percent and hospital admissions by 14–44 percent, achieving benefit to cost ratios ranging from 1.2:1 to 2.0:1 within 18–24 months for high risk populations. However, traditional single payer return on investment (ROI) frameworks systematically undervalue these interventions because savings accrue across fragmented sectors—including Medicaid, Medicare, hospitals, criminal justice, and child welfare—while costs fall disproportionately on Medicaid. Annual budget cycles, member churn, and federal budget neutrality rules further constrain states’ ability to scale housing investments. This paper introduces a “we centered ROI” framework that incorporates cross sector savings, extended evaluation horizons, and equity impacts into Medicaid financing decisions. Policy recommendations include extending budget neutrality windows, allowing cross sector offsets, increasing the health related social needs spending cap, and adopting multi year managed care contracts with housing performance metrics.
By Farah Farahati; Senior Medical Economics Advisor    Elsy Kizhakethalackal; BGSU Firelands    Brian Sloboda; University of Maryland, Global Campus
Presented by: Farah Farahati, Senior Medical Economics Advisor
Availability and Affordability of Senior Housing in Rural Pennsylvania Abstract This research provides a comprehensive analysis of supply and demand for senior housing in rural Pennsylvania (PA). In 2020, seniors represented 21 percent of the rural population and are projected to account for 25 percent of the rural population by 2050. They have a lower median income compared to seniors living in urban areas and statewide household income. A majority of seniors (81 percent) own their homes, and most of them own or rent properties that were built before 1970. For senior renters, 44 percent bear high rental costs of at least 30 percent or more of their income. Furthermore, housing costs and rents are generally not affordable for low-income senior homeowners or renters across most rural Pennsylvania counties. Based on the estimates of supply and demand for rental units designated for seniors, there are at least 16,415 fewer units than are necessary to house all low-income seniors in rural Pennsylvania. Ninety-five percent of the survey respondents sent to 48 rural County Area Agencies on Aging (AAA) highlighted a major supply shortage in affordable senior housing. Finally, this study provides practical recommendations to policymakers to address the urgent and future need for affordable senior housing.
By Thuy Bui; Slippery Rock University    Benjamas Jirasakuldech; Slippery Rock University
Presented by: Thuy Bui, Slippery Rock University
Discussant:   Gregory Collins, Muhlenberg College
Session 11: F2D: Labor Markets, Mobility, and Economic Education May 29, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Knowlton Room
Session Chair: Theresa Phipps, Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania
Job Trap: The Impact of Non-Compete Agreements on Low-Wage Workers Abstract Non-compete agreements (NCAs) have increasingly spread from high-skill professions to the low-wage service sector. This paper studies state-level reforms that restrict NCAs for low-paid workers using CPS-MORG microdata from 2000–2023 and a staggered policy design. Pooled estimates show little average wage response in the short run, but the dynamic evidence reveals important heterogeneity across exposure length. Banning NCAs also increases job-to-job transitions within the same industry by about 0.16 percentage points, or roughly one quarter of the pre-reform mean, with little change in cross-industry mobility. To interpret these patterns, we develop a search-and-matching model of the low-wage labor market with two industries, on-the-job and off-the-job search, non-compete jobs and unrestricted jobs, and industry-specific human capital accumulation. Unlike models centered on large-firm market structure or managerial buyout contracts, the mechanism here operates through restricted low-wage job-to-job mobility and slower accumulation and redeployment of industry-specific skills. In the model, NCAs reduce workers’ outside options by preventing within-industry moves during a lock-in period, but they also support higher entry wages by lengthening expected job duration. Quantitatively, the calibrated model shows that late-tenure wages are about 0.75 percent lower in NCA jobs, and removing NCAs reduces equilibrium market tightness (arrival rates fall from 0.214 to 0.162). The paper highlights the long-run wage-growth cost of NCAs for low-wage workers and provides new evidence relevant to ongoing debates over targeted non-compete regulation.
By Frank Keat; Boston College    Taoran Liu; Boston College    Mary Stack; Boston College
Presented by: Taoran Liu, Boston College
Discussant:   Oleg Kucher, Frostburg State University
Determinants of Labor Force Participation in Maryland: Evidence from Fixed Effects and Spatial Panel Models Abstract Over the past decade, labor force participation rates (LFPR) in Maryland have declined, reflecting changes in economic conditions and demographic composition. This study examines the effects of key demographic, economic, and educational factors on LFPR across counties using panel data from 2010 to 2024. County-level panel regressions are employed to evaluate variables such as real minimum wage, median household income, educational attainment, racial composition, gender, foreign-born population share, household structure, and median age, with specifications that include both county and time fixed effects. After controlling for the fixed effects, we find that demographic and structural variables play a significant role in explaining variation in LFPR. Educational attainment and median household income are positively associated with labor participation, while median age is negatively related to the LFPR. The estimated coefficient for median household income (0.00175) implies that a $1,000 increase is associated with a 0.175 percentage point increase in LFPR. Households with children under age 18 are also strongly associated with higher participation rates, with a one-percentage-point increase linked to a 0.35 to 0.46 percentage point increase in LFPR. In contrast, we do not find real minimum wage in Maryland to be a statistically significant factor when using a panel fixed effects model. The study also employs spatial panel econometric techniques to account for spatial autocorrelation in LFPR and its determinants. Preliminary spatial panel results reinforce the findings that county-level LFPR in Maryland is driven primarily by demographic and structural factors rather than policy variables.
By Benjamin Lindsay; Frostburg State University    Oleg Kucher; Frostburg State University
Presented by: Oleg Kucher, Frostburg State University
Discussant:   Theresa Phipps, Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania
Lessons Learned from Creating a Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA) Service-Learning Course Abstract This presentation, led by Dr. Theresa Phipps of Slippery Rock University (SRU), examines the strategic evolution of the Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA) program from a traditional internship into a formalized service-learning course. As a cornerstone of SRU’s commitment to social responsibility and its Carnegie Classification for Community Engagement, the VITA course establishes a high-impact, mutually beneficial exchange between student volunteers and lower-income community members. Dr. Phipps provides a comprehensive framework for universities to institutionalize such programs within a School of Business curriculum, enabling students to serve their community while earning essential college credit. The session details the logistical requirements of the program, including rigorous IRS certification for student tax preparers, specialized software training, and mandatory ethics instruction. Central to the program's success is the management of reciprocal partnerships with organizations such as the Center for Community Resources (CCR) Butler and the United Way to address community-defined priorities. By transforming the experience into a classroom-based model with weekly meetings, SRU has successfully fostered a collaborative environment that encourages students to reflect on their professional growth and social impact. Drawing on longitudinal data, the presentation highlights significant student outcomes, including a 100% increase in student confidence and professionalism, as well as a heightened interest in CPA careers. Attendees will gain insights into balancing technical requirements with reflective learning, managing peak-season stress, and measuring long-term community impact—with program data showing over $4 million in total refunds facilitated during peak years. Ultimately, this VITA service-learning model offers a scalable blueprint for fostering professional development while reinforcing the vital importance of giving back to society.
By Theresa Phipps; Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: Theresa Phipps, Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   Taoran Liu, Boston College
Session 12: F2E: Undergraduate Paper Competition III May 29, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Conemaugh Room
Session Chair: Orhan Kara, West Chester University
Trading Tomorrow for Today: An Analysis on Boeing's Capital Allocation Abstract This research examines patterns in capital allocation between shareholder returns and corporate reinvestment. Focusing on Boeing, the study analyzes the firm’s use of dividends and stock buybacks relative to research and development (R&D). Prior to 2019, Boeing returned more than twice as much capital to shareholders as it reinvested in R&D. This analysis uses publicly available 10-K filings to examine long-term capital allocation trends within Boeing, as well as publicly available National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) records. By comparing Boeing's reported incidents with its primary duopoly competitor, Airbus, this study establishes a comparative benchmark. Ultimately, these patterns highlight a sustained emphasis on shareholder payouts alongside comparatively constrained reinvestments, raising important questions about short-term financial priorities and long-term investment capacity in a capital-intensive industry.
By Charles Marshall; Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: Charles Marshall, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   Ryan Thalwitzer, The College of New Jersey
From Earnings Surprises to Market Shockwaves: The Role of Firm Characteristics Abstract Financial economics literature has thoroughly discussed the relationship between quarterly earnings report surprises and the subsequent market shockwaves, typically describing it as an overall “S-shape” function. However, studies generally do not analyze how the connection may systematically differ based on firm-level characteristics. This paper tests stock volatility, market-relative volatility, valuation, and company size as potentially impactful firm-specific mediators, using 2021 through 2025 earnings reports of publicly traded companies in the US. The analysis starts with Ordinary Least Squares regressions for cumulative abnormal return, with the key independent variable of earnings surprise defined as the percent difference between the analyst consensus from Bloomberg and the actual earnings amount. Then, a random forest algorithm is employed as a novel non-parametric method. The results show that firms’ attributes lead to significantly different market reactions to earnings surprises. These findings suggest that stock volatility, market-relative volatility, and sometimes valuation are significant predictors which can help traders, analysts, and corporate managers improve their understanding of investor behavior.
By Ryan Thalwitzer; The College of New Jersey
Presented by: Ryan Thalwitzer, The College of New Jersey
Discussant:   Jordyn Trusnovic, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Investigating the Drivers of Profit in Nonprofit Hospitals Over Time Abstract This study seeks to explore the drivers of hospital profits utilizing an annual balanced panel data set from 2019–2024 of 24 hospitals located within Region 1 of the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council (PHC4). A two-way fixed effects model was estimated to control for unobserved heterogeneity. Operating margin and total margin serve as the response variables used to measure the profitability of a hospital. Covariates include unemployment rate, percentage of population 65 years and older, average length of stay, Medicaid share of net revenue, occupancy rate, and system membership of a hospital. Regression results indicate that the variables provide greater explanatory power for operating margin than total margin. Additionally, the explanatory variables that maintained statistical significance in both models are uncompensated care, system membership, and the interaction term between system membership and Medicaid share of revenue. System membership expressed a positive relationship to profit, whereas uncompensated care and the interaction term system membership and Medicaid share of revenue exhibited negative signs. The robust statistical significance of uncompensated care across both models emphasizes the importance of reducing the bad debts accumulated by hospitals.
By Jordyn Trusnovic; Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: Jordyn Trusnovic, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   Charles Marshall, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Session 13: F2F: Graduate Paper Competition III May 29, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Monongahela Room A
Session Chair: Zachary Klingensmith, Washington and Jefferson College
The Effect of Congestion Surcharge Policy on Taxi Tipping Behavior: Evidence from New York City Abstract This paper examines how New York City’s congestion surcharge affects passenger tipping behavior in yellow and green taxis. Using trip-level data from NYC Open Data, I construct tip ratios and apply a Difference-in-Differences framework comparing trips that enter or leave the congestion zone to those occurring entirely outside it, while controlling for detailed trip characteristics, origin–destination pairs, and time fixed effects. The results show that tip percentages increase by 3.1–3.9 percentage points for yellow taxis and 2.3–2.9 percentage points for green taxis following the policy’s introduction. The estimates remain positive and statistically significant across a wide range of heterogeneous trip characteristics. These patterns suggest that when congestion-related costs and delays are more salient, passengers are more likely to compensate drivers through higher tips. Overall, the findings suggest that tipping serves as an important behavioral margin of adjustment, showing that the effects of visible, policy-induced charges can extend beyond posted prices and shape discretionary payments.
By Haoyu Wang; West Virginia University
Presented by: Haoyu Wang, West Virginia University
Discussant:   Wingshan YIP, Baruch College
Cultural Proximity and Housing Investment Abstract We examine how cultural proximity between homebuyers and neighborhoods shapes residential sorting and housing prices. We construct a novel measure of cultural distance between homebuyers and neighborhoods of the purchased properties by applying Hofstede’s cultural framework to a comprehensive dataset of housing transactions in New York State between 2011 and 2021. We find strong preference for culture proximity, where a one standard deviation decrease in cultural distance more than doubles the likelihood that buyers choose a home in a given neighborhood and is associated with a 1.6% price premium. These results are robust to the instrumental variable approach, sample selection corrections and alternative measures of cultural distance. Mechanism analysis suggests that the cultural proximity premium arises because culturally proximate buyers choose higher-priced homes at the outset and exhibit less aggressive price negotiation. We further demonstrate that the cultural proximity premium persists after controlling several racial factors, distinguishing from racial discrimination. Our results highlight the role of cultural proximity preferences in understanding residential choice and designing policies for inclusive housing markets.
By Wingshan YIP; Baruch College
Presented by: Wingshan YIP, Baruch College
Discussant:   Jiewen Luo, Rice University
Public Works and Children’s Human Capital Formation: Evidence from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program Abstract Public works programs are a central component of social protection in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet systematic evidence on their effects on children’s human capital remains limited. This paper studies Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and how it shapes children’s health and cognitive skill formation. I develop and estimate a dynamic discrete-choice model of household behavior that incorporates production functions for health and cognition. Children’s time allocation across schooling, market work, and chores serves as key production inputs, and program participation shifts these allocations by relaxing household resource constraints. The estimates reveal strong persistence in both health and cognition and a central role of schooling in cognitive development. In contrast, time spent in market work and chores has small but consistently negative effects on cognitive skills and little impact on health, with adverse effects on cognition most pronounced at younger ages. Counterfactual simulations that incorporate human-capital conditioning show that only stringent requirements—combining full-time schooling with a ban on market work—raise cognitive achievement by 0.9 to 6.3 percentage points. These findings highlight how incorporating human-capital conditionalities into public works programs can strengthen their intergenerational impacts.
By Jiewen Luo; Rice University
Presented by: Jiewen Luo, Rice University
Discussant:   Haoyu Wang, West Virginia University
Session 14: F2G: Graduate Paper Competition IV May 29, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Monongahela Room B
Session Chair: William McAndrew, Gannon University
Temperature and Growth: A Panel Mixed-Frequency (MF) VAR Analysis of the United States. Abstract By estimating a Panel Mixed-Frequency (MF) VAR model over the 1997−2023 period, we document that rising seasonal temperatures exert significant dynamic effects on the U.S. economic growth across all 50 states, both at the aggregate level and across a diverse range of economic sectors. Importantly, estimations based on mixed-frequency data reveal the significant negative immediate effect during summer and the significant negative effect during spring at the one-year forecasting horizon on economic growth. These critical seasonal dynamics, identifiable only through mixed-frequency data, would have been obscured under the estimation of a Panel Common-Frequency (CF) VAR model. In addition, our analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity when states are classified by their level of development and average temperature, with most pronounced effects noted for the “less developed” and “hot” states. Finally, by integrating further macroeconomic growth determinants—following the Solow framework—into the VAR model, our findings suggest that labor productivity serves as the key mechanism driving the response of aggregate economic activity proxy to temperature shocks.
By Magdalini Tofini; University of Cyprus    Elena Andreou; University of Cyprus
Presented by: Magdalini Tofini, University of Cyprus
Discussant:   Dereck Yang, University of Maryland
How Battery Storage Reduces the Cost of Grid Stability under Transmission Constraints Abstract Electricity systems with growing shares of wind and solar generation face a central challenge: maintaining system stability when supply and demand fluctuate rapidly. System operators address this by procuring short-notice “stability services” that correct imbalances within seconds or minutes. These services are essential for reliability but can become extremely costly when transmission constraints force operators to rely on a small set of local providers, creating opportunities for market power. This paper studies how large battery storage affects the cost of stability services using evidence from Australia’s National Electricity Market, focusing on the 100-MW Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia. Using high-frequency market data, the analysis distinguishes between intervals when South Australia is isolated by transmission constraints and when it is fully connected to the national grid. Battery participation is measured using the amount of capacity offered at competitively low prices. The results show strong state-dependent effects. During isolated intervals—when local market power is most likely—additional battery supply substantially reduces stability service prices. Smaller but significant price reductions also occur when the grid is fully connected, indicating broader spillovers. These findings suggest the value of battery storage is concentrated during periods of system stress, when reliability risks and costs are highest.
By Dereck Yang; University of Maryland
Presented by: Dereck Yang, University of Maryland
Discussant:   Magdalini Tofini, University of Cyprus
Session 15: F3A: Education: Outcomes, Attainment, and Curriculum May 29, 2026 14:15 to 15:30 Location: Allegheny Room A
Session Chair: Leslie Dunn, Washington & Jefferson College
Educational Achievement Abstract This study investigates personal and demographic factors that affect educational achievement. Educational achievement plays an important role in determining labor outcomes. In this research, several personal and demographic factors, such as age, gender, and parents’ education, are used to estimate educational achievement. Multiple types of educational achievement are also used to test the consistency of the estimates.
By Freddy Siahaan; Shippensburg University    David Siahaan; Phillips Academy
Presented by: Freddy Siahaan, Shippensburg University
Discussant:   Leslie Dunn, Washington & Jefferson College
The Impact of Natural Gas Production on Human Capital Accumulation Abstract This paper explores the impact of natural gas production on human capital accumulation in Pennsylvania. It examines data at both the county and school district level to analyze whether the expansion of gas production impacted the decision to graduate from high school and to obtain any additional education after high school.
By Leslie Dunn; Washington & Jefferson College
Presented by: Leslie Dunn, Washington & Jefferson College
Discussant:   CJ Rhoads, Kutztown University/PASSHE
Business Statistics Education and Incorporating AI Abstract Business Statistics Education has not changed much in over 40 years. Especially with the advent of AI, it is long past time that Business Statistics Education have an overhaul. CJ Rhoads proposes a project where she interviews business statistics teachers and textbook authors and develops guidelines for updating the typical business statistics curriculum.
By CJ Rhoads; Kutztown University/PASSHE
Presented by: CJ Rhoads, Kutztown University/PASSHE
Discussant:   Freddy Siahaan, Shippensburg University
Session 16: F3B:Development Economics: Agriculture, Fertility, and Climate May 29, 2026 14:15 to 15:30 Location: Allegheny Room B
Session Chair: Yaya Sissoko, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Exposure to Shock and Labor Allocation Decision: An Examination of Livelihood Diversification of Farming Households in Rural India Abstract Using India Human Development Survey data, we estimate the causal impact of agricultural households’ exposure to crop failure on livelihood diversification. Employing doubly robust difference in differences technique, we find that exposure to crop failure increases households’ participation in multiple activities along with an even distribution of labor-hours (income) among various activities (income sources). The impact is particularly profound for marginal and small farmers lacking alternative adaptation strategies highlighting the role of livelihood diversification as an important risk mitigation strategy for poor farmers. Diversification, however, is largely concentrated in low-productivity non-farm activities, which allows households to maintain subsistence level consumption, suggesting the presence of entry barriers to productive non-farm opportunities. Additionally, substantial heterogeneity in the impact of crop failure suggests the need to account for farmers’ heterogeneous and complex nature of decision-making depending on their endowment and adaptive capacity, while formulating policies governing climatic risk and building farmers’ resilience to future climatic shocks.
By Neha Gupta; Indian Institute Of Technology. Bombay    Gunjan Kumari; UPES Dehradun    Krishnan Narayanan; Indian Institute Of Technology, Bombay
Presented by: Neha Gupta, Indian Institute Of Technology. Bombay
Discussant:   Brian Sloboda, University of Maryland, Global Campus
Resilience in African Agricultural Systems: Adapting to a Changing Climate Abstract Global climate change presents a significant challenge to the world today. Since 1850, the combined temperature of land and ocean has been increasing at an average rate of 0.06 °C per decade, with the rate of warming more than three times faster since 1982, at approximately 0.20 °C per decade (IPCC, 2023). Agriculture, which underpins food security, is highly vulnerable to these climatic changes. Across Africa’s regional economic blocs including the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the East African Community (EAC), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), and the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) with rising temperatures, shifting precipitation regimes, and increased wind variability are disrupting crop growth cycles, intensifying extreme weather events, and influencing pest and disease dynamics (Lobell et al., 2011; Sultan & Gaetani, 2016). These processes pose substantial risks to crop yields and quality, with far-reaching consequences for food security and rural livelihoods (FAO, 2021). This paper estimates empirically climate impacts on agricultural systems across these African regions, examines feedback mechanisms between farming practices and climate dynamics (Campbell et al., 2016), and outlines adaptive strategies to enhance resilience (Thornton et al., 2018). Specifically, the paper analyzes how changing climate patterns affect crop yields, food security, and rural livelihoods across ECOWAS, COMESA, SADC, EAC, IGAD, ECCAS, and AMU member states, with particular emphasis on staple crops such as maize, sorghum, and cassava.
By Yaya Sissoko; Indiana University of Pennsylvania    Brian Sloboda; University of Maryland, Global Campus
Presented by: Brian Sloboda, University of Maryland, Global Campus
Discussant:   Nathan Caldwell, Dickinson College
Impact of Price Shocks on Fertility Decisions: Evidence from Burkina Faso Abstract This paper aims to establish the impact of price shocks on fertility rates in developing countries. Many theories suggest a relation between available income and fertility; however, this issue becomes much more convoluted in the context of an agricultural, developing economy. Burkina Faso is a developing country that has had historically high price shocks. In theory, higher food prices would result in decreased welfare, increased stress, and increased food insecurity. Additionally, these negative effects would likely dissuade potential parents from taking on the financial burden of having a child. This effect has been studied in developed countries, yet little to no research has been conducted on developing countries. This study aims to fill in the literature gap and uses the unique geography and diverse crop background of Burkina Faso to analyze the effects of crop price fluctuations. Analysis is conducted at the sub-national level over 2003-2014, a period that captures multiple dramatic spikes in millet, maize, and sorghum prices. It turns out that an increase in crop price is associated with a drop in conception amongst younger aged women (ages 15-34). Furthermore, when measuring the effects of crop price on women living in rural environment and on women living in urban environments, this negative effect is only present among women in rural environments, while the effect of those in urban environments is null. Data on food indices for Burkina Faso also suggest similar trends, with an increase in food price index being associated with a decrease in conception amongst women, aged 15-24, in rural environments. While this effect is present in the immediate short-run, the 1-year-median-run effect is null. Additionally, the short-run effect in top crop producing regions is null, suggesting families here experienced increased income, didn’t have financial hardship, and hence weren’t dissuaded from having children.
By Shamma Alam; Dickinson College    Nathan Caldwell; Dickinson College    Claus Portner; Seattle University
Presented by: Nathan Caldwell, Dickinson College
Discussant:   Neha Gupta, Indian Institute Of Technology. Bombay
Session 17: F3C: Empirical Policy Analysis May 29, 2026 14:15 to 15:30 Location: Susquehanna Room
Session Chair: Brandon Vick, IUP
Cost Analysis of Non-Fatal Firearm Injuries in Pennsylvania Abstract In 2022, the Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency reported that hospitalizations due to non-fatal firearm injuries were rising between 2016 and 2021, along with associated medical, economic (work-loss and home production), and quality-of-life costs (Vick et al., 2022). Drawing on data from the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council (PHC4), the authors found that a yearly average of over 1,700 new injuries incurred more than $50 million in medical costs, with estimated economic and quality-of-life losses exceeding $300 million annually. While the average medical cost of a firearm injury requiring a single hospitalization exceeds $35,000, nearly 16% of new injuries require follow-up care — roughly doubling that average — and 3% result in paralysis, with average costs exceeding $108,000. Regression analysis further revealed that injuries due to assault (compared to accidents or other causes) were associated with significantly higher medical costs. This presentation will outline the methods used to conduct the cost analysis, including techniques for estimating work-loss, home production, and quality-of-life costs, as well as regression methods used to identify factors associated with injury cost while controlling for age, race, region, insurance status, and cause of injury. Injury and cost estimates from 2016 onward will be presented to illustrate the human and economic toll of firearm injuries over time.
By Brandon Vick; IUP
Presented by: Brandon Vick, IUP
Discussant:   I-Ming Chiu, Rutgers University-Camden
Integrating Logistic Regression with Entropy‑Based Feature Selection to Detect Adolescent Depression Abstract Using cross-sectional data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) from 2011-2017, this study examines factors associated with severe depression among adolescents and develops a predictive framework to identify high risk cases. We first estimate a logistic regression model to assess the direction and strength of associations between severe depression and three groups of predictors: sociodemographic characteristics (age, ethnicity, income, and family structure), parenting style, and school experiences. We then extend the predictive component by integrating logistic regression with information theoretic measures, specifically entropy and information gain, to construct a hybrid classifier. Based on our prior empirical findings, we expect the logistic model to show higher risk among female and older adolescents, and lower risk among Black and Asian/NHIP adolescents compared to White adolescents. We also anticipate that the absence of a father in the household, low parental involvement, and negative school experiences will be positively associated with severe depression. To improve case identification, we introduce a hybrid classification rule that labels an adolescent as depressive if either (a) the predicted probability from the logistic model exceeds a chosen threshold, or (b) key features exhibit high entropy or strong information gain signals indicative of elevated risk. This OR logic rule allows the model to classify cases that the logistic model alone might miss. For example, when the predicted probability is below the threshold but the feature level uncertainty suggests a depressive profile. We will evaluate the hybrid classifier across a range of thresholds using confusion matrices and compute accuracy, recall, and precision. We expect the entropy augmented classifier to increase recall, though potentially at the cost of higher false positives. By combining statistical modeling with information theoretic feature selection, this study aims to enhance early identification of high risk adolescents and support more targeted prevention strategies.
By I-Ming Chiu; Rutgers University-Camden    Chengcheng Yue; Rutgers University - Camden
Presented by: I-Ming Chiu, Rutgers University-Camden
Discussant:   Aegus Kim, Georgetown University
Exorbitant Privilege and Hegemonic Capital Allocation Abstract A hegemon requires both economic and military supremacy in order to sustain financial dominance and enjoy exorbitant privilege. Military buildup strengthens the state's existential security and decreases debt risk but siphons capital away from civilian investment and social transfers which would promote higher productivity, yet both are necessary to preserve the preeminence of the state, and by extension, its prescribed financial system. Exorbitant privilege enables advantageous capital accumulation, which in turn bolsters military hardening and economic growth. This paper examines the outcomes of capital allocation between economic output and military spending in a dynamic endogenous growth model, in which the initial global imbalances reinforce hegemonic advantage, but shifting priorities and policy yield exit conditions for hegemonic transition. This study extends the model from two countries into an asymmetric multi-nation model, in which belligerence between the hegemon and weaker states heighten risk but also induce unpredictable shifts in the global order. The result of the war may perpetuate state dominance, but conflicts against states with extensive economic or military capacity, especially repeatedly, deteriorate the hegemon's perceived unipolarity and induces a shift in the global order.
By Aegus Kim; Georgetown University
Presented by: Aegus Kim, Georgetown University
Discussant:   Brandon Vick, IUP
Session 18: F3D: Health Economics, Technology, and Media May 29, 2026 14:15 to 15:30 Location: Knowlton Room
Session Chair: Caroline Welter, West Virginia University
Economic Evaluation of AI Enabled Metabolic Care Abstract Metabolic diseases—including type 2 diabetes, obesity, and metabolic syndrome—are major drivers of public spending in Medicaid and Medicare. Rising GLP 1 utilization, high complication rates, and productivity losses impose substantial fiscal burdens on federal and state budgets. This study conducts a population level economic simulation using publicly available data from the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), Current Population Survey (CPS), CDC chronic disease surveillance, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to estimate the fiscal impact of shifting from chronic pharmacotherapy to AI enabled metabolic reversal. Published clinical outcomes from digital twin metabolic interventions (Twin Health) and a Cleveland Clinic randomized controlled trial are applied to national prevalence estimates to model reductions in GLP 1 spending, inpatient utilization, metabolic complications, and productivity losses. Results indicate that applying metabolic reversal effect sizes to high burden Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and working age populations could generate approximately $55 billion in annual medical savings and $40 billion in productivity gains, totaling $95 billion in economic value. The findings suggest that AI enabled metabolic care represents a fiscally significant and scalable strategy for reducing preventable public spending. For public programs facing rising GLP 1 costs and increasing metabolic disease prevalence, metabolic reversal offers a high value alternative to traditional chronic disease management. JEL Codes: I13, H51, I18
By Farah Farahati; Senior Medical Economics Advisor    Elsy Kizhakethalackal; BGSU Firelands    Brian Sloboda; University of Maryland, Global Campus
Presented by: Farah Farahati, Senior Medical Economics Advisor
Discussant:   Caroline Welter, West Virginia University
Administrative Burden and Treatment Continuation: Evidence from Continuous Glucose Monitoring in Medicaid Abstract This paper examines the use of continuous glucose monitoring devices (CGMs) among Type 1 Diabetes beneficiaries in West Virginia Medicaid. Although CGMs are considered the gold standard of care and are effective in preventing costly hospitalizations, their use is subject to prior authorization and recurring reauthorization requirements that have become increasingly stringent over time. After initial approval in 2019 with annual reauthorization, the required renewal period was shortened to six months in 2021 and to three months in 2022, increasing administrative burdens on patients and physicians. Using administrative Medicaid claims data, we track adult beneficiaries with type 1 diabetes who received a CGM and examine how CGM usage evolves under different reauthorization regimes within the first year following initial receipt. We find that shortening the renewal interval is associated with substantial reductions in sustained CGM use. Continued usage declines more sharply under the six month policy beginning in the second and third quarters after receipt, and the reductions are substantially larger under the three month regime. The timing of these declines closely matches renewal thresholds, suggesting that increased administrative frequency contributes to reduced continuation. These findings highlight how cost containment policies such as prior authorization and reauthorization requirements, can generate unintended consequences by restricting access to established standards of care. In this setting, administrative requirements may reduce sustained CGM use and increase the risk of preventable, diabetes related hospitalizations driven by poor glycemic control, undermining the very cost saving objectives the policies aim to achieve.
By Caroline Welter; West Virginia University    Daniel Grossman; West Virginia University    Amanda Gaulke; Kansas State University
Presented by: Caroline Welter, West Virginia University
Discussant:   Bríd Hanna, Rochester Institute of Technology
News Congestion and Mass Shooting Coverage Abstract This paper examines how competition for scarce television news airtime affects coverage of mass shootings. I construct a novel dataset that combines data on mass shootings in the United States over the past 15 years - from the Associated Press/USA TODAY/Northeastern University Mass Killings database - with measures of television news coverage from GDELT’s Television Explorer. I develop a news congestion index that captures the extent to which other salient news topics compete for limited airtime on a given day. Exploiting variation in this index, I estimate the causal effect of competing news pressure on the intensity of media coverage devoted to mass shooting events.
By Bríd Hanna; Rochester Institute of Technology
Presented by: Bríd Hanna, Rochester Institute of Technology
Discussant:   Farah Farahati, Senior Medical Economics Advisor
Session 19: F3E: Corporate Performance and Applied Analysis May 29, 2026 14:15 to 15:30 Location: Monongahela Room A
Session Chair: Tufan Tiglioglu, Alvernia University
Founder CEO Leadership and Financial Resilience in U.S. Critical Infrastructure Firms: Evidence on Solvency, Stability and Bankruptcy Risk Abstract This study investigates the role of founder CEO leadership in enhancing corporate financial resilience and its broader implications for economic stability in the United States, focusing on utility firms as a critical component of national infrastructure. The financial health of these firms is closely tied to the reliability of essential services and U.S. economic security, as emphasized by the U.S. Department of Energy and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Drawing on agency theory, stewardship theory, and founder imprinting theory, the study argues that founder CEOs, due to their long-term orientation, concentrated ownership, and strong organizational commitment, are more likely to adopt prudent financial policies that mitigate financial distress and enhance firm stability. Using a comprehensive panel of U.S. utility firms from 1990 to 2022, the analysis examines the relationship between founder leadership and key indicators of financial health, including liquidity, solvency, and bankruptcy risk. The findings show that founder-led firms maintain stronger liquidity positions, lower leverage, and significantly reduced bankruptcy risk, as measured by the Altman Z-score and its alternative specifications, with results remaining robust after controlling for firm characteristics and addressing selection bias. The importance of firm-level financial resilience has been widely recognized since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, which highlighted the systemic consequences of financial distress. Overall, this study provides evidence with direct implications for financial regulation and corporate governance, aligning with priorities emphasized by the Federal Reserve System, and underscores the importance of governance-driven financial resilience in promoting sustainable economic growth and safeguarding essential services in the United States.
By MD ASIF UL ALAM; Kutztown University of Pennsylvania    MD MARUF UL ALAM; Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas    TOUFIQ NAZRUL; University of Evansville
Presented by: MD ASIF UL ALAM, Kutztown University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   Tufan Tiglioglu, Alvernia University
TURKEY’S INTERNATIONAL TRADE UNDER FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE Abstract Turkey experienced one of the deepest financial crises in 2001 and adopted a free floating exchange rate regime, with a strong commitment to reduce inflation to single digits. In addition, the Central Bank of Turkey has frequently intervened in the exchange rate market, producing a strong currency. However, the literature did not produce any evidence as to how imports and exports responded to fluctuations in exchange rate and relative prices since 2001 in Turkey as this study tries to illustrate. As more emerging markets move to flexible exchange rate regime, this study further contributes to the literature by providing evidence from the experiences of Turkey. The conclusions reveal there is a significant relationship between income and trade flows. Unlike relative prices which have minimal effects on imports and exports, the effect of exchange rate is more significant. Finally, the speed of adjustment to shocks are sluggish both in import and export cases. Policy makers in Turkey should only intervene in the exchange rate market when there are large changes and let the exchange rate free float.
By Orhan Kara; West Chester University    Tufan Tiglioglu; Alvernia University
Presented by: Orhan Kara, West Chester University
Discussant:   Yaqin Wang, Youngstown State University
Does Homework Still Measure Learning? Evidence from a Post-2022 Classroom Abstract This paper examines how student performance on homework and exams has changed in the period following the widespread availability of generative AI tools. Using data from the same undergraduate course taught before and after 2022, with identical homework assignments, exams, grading standards, and instructional content, we isolate changes in student outcomes across cohorts. We find that homework performance increases significantly in the post-2022 period, while exam performance remains unchanged. As a result, the gap between homework and exam performance widens substantially. We interpret these findings as consistent with a change in how students complete assignments, potentially involving reduced effort or increased use of external assistance. These results suggest that homework-based assessments may have become less informative about underlying student learning.
By Yaqin Wang; Youngstown State University
Presented by: Yaqin Wang, Youngstown State University
Discussant:   MD ASIF UL ALAM, Kutztown University of Pennsylvania
Session 20: F3F: Information, Media, and Entertainment Economics May 29, 2026 14:15 to 15:30 Location: Monongahela Room B
Session Chair: M. Garrett Roth, Gannon University
Do Race, Gender and Ideology Impact the Profitability and Quality of Major Motion Pictures? Abstract This paper examines whether the profitability and subjective quality of modern Hollywood films are affected by the demographic and ideological characteristics of the director. Preliminary results suggest that films directed by women are more profitable than men and that films directed by liberals are better received by critics (but not audiences in general). Race does not have a meaningful impact on profitability or quality.
By M. Garrett Roth; Gannon University    William McAndrew; Gannon University
Presented by: M. Garrett Roth, Gannon University
Discussant:   Md Fourkan, Kutztown University of Pennsylvania
The Influence of Subjective Authenticity on Online Review Usefulness Abstract eWOM in the form of online reviews is a significant factor in consumers’ online decision-making. As eWOM infiltration (e.g., fake reviews, incentivized reviews) has become increasingly prevalent, readers now consider several factors—such as trust and authenticity—before using online recommendations in their subsequent behaviors and in judging a review’s persuasiveness. Readers’ assessment of review authenticity typically falls into two categories: (a) objective authenticity and (b) subjective authenticity. These two types are conceptually distinct. Objective authenticity reflects a binary judgment in which readers decide whether a review is true or fake. In contrast, subjective authenticity is derived from multiple reference points within the review text—such as word or sentence cues, hints, length, level of detail, and the reviewer’s perceived motives. I further argue that readers do not rely on these two types of authenticity in isolation. Instead, an interplay between objective and subjective authenticity judgments likely shapes how readers use a review in their subsequent decisions, although this interactive process has not been fully examined. This conceptual paper synthesizes the literature on both types of authenticity in online reviews and investigates whether their interaction influences consumers’ online behaviors. We also examine how subjective authenticity cues differ from objective ones and how readers evaluate them differently. Finally, we discuss managerial implications for brands and marketing practitioners who depend on online reviews to promote their products in digital environments.
By Md Fourkan; Kutztown University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: Md Fourkan, Kutztown University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   John Ruddy, University of Scranton
A 6-Year Analysis of Technology Funds Pre, During, and Post-Pandemic Abstract Over the 2018-2024 period, stocks in the technology industry experienced significant volatility. Several major events impacted the results. In this research, we examine the performance of technology funds over the 2018-2024 period and break down the six-year period into three, two-year time frames. We do this using the performances of exchange-traded funds and mutual funds. Our data consists of sixteen exchange-traded funds and thirty-one mutual funds. We find that pre-pandemic, pandemic, post-pandemic, and the entire six-year period have significant similarities and differences in their respective performance attributions.
By Todd Monahan; University of Scranton    John Ruddy; University of Scranton
Presented by: John Ruddy, University of Scranton
Discussant:   William Shapiro, Millersville University of Pennsylvania
The Influence of Collector Motivations on Buying Intentions in the Sports Card Market Abstract This study investigated how different motivations for collecting sports cards influence buying intentions in the rapidly expanding sports card market. Using the Uses and Gratifications theory, this research explores how the motivations of personal identification, entertainment/escape, social interaction, and financial affects collectors' buying intentions. The data for this study was collected through a mixed-methods survey and analyzed to determine which motivations have a significant relationship with purchasing intent. The results indicated that financial motivation is the only significant relationship with buying intentions. In addition, social interaction potentially serves as a critical retention anchor for the sports card as opposed to a direct purchase motivator. The findings of this study offer critical insights for collectors and industry stakeholders navigating this ever-changing landscape.
By William Shapiro; Millersville University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: William Shapiro, Millersville University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   M. Garrett Roth, Gannon University
Session 21: S1A: Macroeconomics: Growth, Inflation, and Crises May 30, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Allegheny Room A
Session Chair: Guido Giuntini, West Chester University
An Ananlysis of the Recent Increase in Corporate Profits Abstract This study analyzes the rise of corporate profits in the United States from the 1960s to the present, tracing shifting priorities within corporate America and their relationship with other measures of economic well-being.  The classical economic view of competitive markets implies that competition should keep profits limited, benefiting consumers with better and cheaper products. Given the large increase in corporate profits measured as a share of GDP, first starting in the early 2000s, and then post-pandemic, it is important to understand the causes and analyze potential effects. Specifically, we explore the role of market concentration and decreased competition, associated with changes in input factors productivity and cost in explaining the recent increase in corporate profits. We also explore the effects of the changes on real wages, inequality, and their association with the recent general increase of the price level.
By Guido Giuntini; West Chester University
Presented by: Guido Giuntini, West Chester University
Discussant:   Prateek Arora, Union College
Forecasting Inflation in the US using Machine Learning: a Disaggregated Approach Abstract Accurate inflation forecasting is critical for monetary policymakers and economic planners, yet traditional aggregate models often fail to capture the regional heterogeneity that underlies national price dynamics. This paper proposes a two-stage disaggregated forecasting framework for U.S. inflation, combining state-level autoregressive models with machine learning methods. Using quarterly inflation data from 1989 to 2017, we first demonstrate that a GDP-weighted aggregation of state-level AR forecasts significantly outperforms direct national-level autoregressive models. In the second stage, we augment the aggregated state-level forecasts with a rich set of 246 national macroeconomic variables to train a suite of machine learning models in a high-dimensional setting. Our findings highlight the importance of regional heterogeneity in inflation dynamics and demonstrate the potential gains from integrating disaggregated state-level information and machine learning techniques into national macroeconomic forecasting frameworks.
By Prateek Arora; Union College
Presented by: Prateek Arora, Union College
Discussant:   Tomi Ovaska, Youngstown State University
When Economies Fall Apart: Global Evidence over Two Centuries Abstract Research on economic crises typically focuses on individual countries or regions. This paper adopts a global perspective by identifying episodes of extreme economic downturns - defined as annual income declines of at least 30 percent - across 195 countries from 1800 to 2024. For each episode, we examine economic dynamics in the decade before and after the event, identifying patterns in buildup, depth, and recovery. We document substantial variation in both pre-crisis trajectories and post-crisis recoveries, indicating that severe downturns arise from distinct underlying mechanisms rather than a common process. To interpret these differences, we classify episodes into broad theoretical categories and link them to observed dynamic profiles. By combining descriptive statistics, visual analysis, and historical context, the paper provides a systematic account of the incidence and evolution of extreme downturns over the long run, contributing to a more unified understanding of their causes and consequences.
By Tomi Ovaska; Youngstown State University    Albert Sumell; Youngstown State University
Presented by: Tomi Ovaska, Youngstown State University
Discussant:   Guido Giuntini, West Chester University
Session 22: S1B: Monetary Economics and Digital Currency May 30, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Allegheny Room B
Session Chair: Timothy Kearney, Centenary University
Beyond Words: Predicting Market Volatility from Multimodal Central Bank Communication Abstract We introduce a scalable and interpretable framework for real-time risk monitoring around macroeconomic announcements using multimodal central bank communication. Using 53 scheduled FOMC press conferences from 2018-2025, we construct sentence-level signals from the Federal Reserve Chair's transcript (policy stance and financial sentiment) and from delivery style (vocal prosody and facial tension), and align them to second-by-second realized volatility across major equity, bond, and commodity markets. We estimate regularized short-horizon forecasting models that control for the policy statement window and the prevailing day-of risk environment, enabling streaming, out-of-sample evaluation at the meeting level. Nonverbal dynamics provide robust incremental information beyond words: strained voice and facial tension coincide with amplified volatility, while calmer delivery is associated with attenuated volatility responses. The multimodal model achieves out-of-sample R 2 = 0.624, a 105% improvement over the HAR-RV baseline, with economically meaningful heterogeneity across asset classes. Our results highlight a measurable "communication risk" channel and offer a practical toolkit for risk managers and regulators to detect periods of heightened market fragility during central bank events.
By Tiancheng Wang; Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Presented by: Tiancheng Wang, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Discussant:   Michael Zalot, Cedar Crest College
Hybrid Physical / Digital Tokens: Stateful Physical Monetary Instruments with Offline Circulation and Network Validation Abstract This paper proposes a model for hybrid physical–digital currency that combines the bearer properties of cash with the verification capacity of distributed ledger systems, creating what can be understood as stateful physical money. Unlike purely digital payment instruments, such tokens would circulate offline through ordinary face-to-face exchange, but periodically synchronize their validity status with a networked ledger, allowing them to prevent double-spending while preserving many of the usability advantages of cash. A simple example would be a coin-like device incorporating a secure chip and visual validity indicator that signals whether the token remains spendable, even as its ownership state is reconciled through the network when connectivity is available. Economically, this architecture introduces a third category of monetary instrument positioned between anonymous bearer cash and fully account-based digital payments: portable, transferable without intermediaries at the point of exchange, yet capable of supporting programmable features such as expiration, geographic targeting, or restricted-use stimulus. The paper argues that such hybrid tokens could extend the resilience of cash in low-connectivity environments while enabling policy-relevant functionality typically associated with central bank digital currencies, thereby expanding the design space for future circulating media rather than replacing existing monetary forms outright.
By Michael Zalot; Cedar Crest College
Presented by: Michael Zalot, Cedar Crest College
Discussant:   Timothy Kearney, Centenary University
Option Valuation of Currency Abstract The theory of currency valuation is incomplete. This paper analyzes currency using option theory. That is, US currency is a liability of the US government. It is special, a zero coupon perpetual note. Valuation of perpetuals is V = C/I where V is valuation, C is the coupon (here zero), I is market interest rates. However, currency is a puttable asset (can be put at par for taxes) and exchangeable for new currency (exchangeable assets are analyzed as callable assets). We find that there is evidence of the existence of put/call valuations using the Black Scholes model.
By Timothy Kearney; Centenary University
Presented by: Timothy Kearney, Centenary University
Discussant:   Tiancheng Wang, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Session 23: S1C: Industrial Organization and Market Structure May 30, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Susquehanna Room
Session Chair: Kosin Isariyawongse, PennWest University
Informational Advantage in Market Entry Abstract We analyze a duopoly model with endogenous entry and uncertain demand where one firm has superior information. It is shown that in the unique equilibrium, informational asymmetry distorts the entry incentives for the better-informed firm, paradoxically causing it to earn lower profits than its uninformed rival. The equilibrium may feature excessive entry from consumers' perspective, and improved information can non-monotonically affect welfare through entry distortions. We also examine regulatory policies to enhance consumer welfare in this context.
By Jeremy Kettering; Alvernia University
Presented by: Jeremy Kettering, Alvernia University
Discussant:   Kosin Isariyawongse, PennWest University
Strategic Heterogeneity in Oligopoly: Theory and Industry Evidence from Mixed Competition Abstract This paper develops a framework in which firms endogenously choose whether to compete in prices or quantities within a differentiated product oligopoly. Building on the Cournot–Bertrand model developed by Tremblay, Tremblay, and Isariyawongse (2013), I allow firms to select their strategic variable in a preliminary stage and then compete in the corresponding mixed game. The analysis shows that the strength of strategic interactions captured by the best reply slopes plays a central role in determining equilibrium strategic mode choices. When the number of firms is small and products are close substitutes, strategic effects are strong and all firms prefer quantity competition. As the market becomes larger, these effects weaken, and mixed configurations with both price setting and quantity setting firms emerge. In sufficiently large or highly differentiated markets, strategic interactions become negligible, and firms converge toward price competition. The model therefore provides an explanation for how market size and product differentiation drives firms’ endogenous decisions to compete through prices or quantities in oligopoly settings. These theoretical results are consistent with mixed competitive behavior exhibited by firms in industries such as hotels, ridesharing, and brewing.
By Kosin Isariyawongse; PennWest University
Presented by: Kosin Isariyawongse, PennWest University
Discussant:   Steven Andelin, Pennsylvania State University
Price Determination When Marginal Cost Is Zero Abstract The digitalization of production systems has promoted the emergence of product markets where the marginal cost of supply is essentially zero. These markets include the distribution of information, media, procedures (apps) for phones and personal computers, and so on. Electrical power produced by wind and solar energy are another example of a zero marginal cost production and distribution process. Products with zero marginal supply cost are often characterized by a high cost to develop the first instance of the product and a substantial investment in infrastructure for the delivery of that product. Price determination for product in which the marginal cost of supply is zero depends on the structure of the product market. We consider first the generation and distribution of electrical power where part of production capacity is provided by either solar or wind energy, or both. In this case, the use of so-called renewable energy may result in a reduction of the optimal market price that depends on the scale of power production from renewables. If a firm enjoys a near monopoly position for a digital product because of network effects or high switching costs by users, the elementary theory of monopoly pricing applies. In other product markets, we find that enterprises providing similar digital products will use several strategies in an attempt to cover their costs of business which include product development, product enhancement, and infrastructure operating costs. In such competitive environments a standard price tends to emerge in a digital product market.
By Steven Andelin; Pennsylvania State University
Presented by: Steven Andelin, Pennsylvania State University
Discussant:   Jeremy Kettering, Alvernia University
Session 24: S1D: Regional Economics and Labor Markets May 30, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Knowlton Room
Session Chair: Robert Dunn, Washington & Jefferson College
The Economic Impacts of Municipal Structure in PA Abstract The state of Pennsylvania has more than 2,500 subcounty, general-purpose, local governmental units. This paper considers the possible economic impacts of municipal structures - city, borough, or township - in Pennsylvania over the past 15 years. Initial estimates indicate that townships have meaningfully higher levels of median household income and median house values after controlling for other relevant factors. Additionally, the vast majority of growth in income and house values has occurred in townships, particularly second class townships, since 2010. This work can provide insight into the differential economic situations being realized across the state and the ways that municipal structure may be contributing to economic outcomes.
By Robert Dunn; Washington & Jefferson College
Presented by: Robert Dunn, Washington & Jefferson College
Discussant:   Wanjiku Muthwii,
Exploring the Determinants and Predicting Retail Closures in Rural Western Pennsylvania Abstract Rural retail businesses in Pennsylvania play a vital role in sustaining local economies, preserving community identity, and fostering regional resilience. However, these enterprises face increasing challenges, including population decline, limited financial resources, and heightened competition from e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, which have significantly altered consumer purchasing behavior (U.S. Census Bureau, 2023). While prior research on retail decline has largely focused on urban centers or single commercial towns, little attention has been given to how retail decline manifests across multiple sectors within rural county systems. This ongoing study focuses on three rural counties in western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Greene, and Clarion Counties, over a period of thirteen years (2010-2023). The study, therefore, addresses this gap by quantifying and comparing retail decline across these counties, treating rural retail as a multi-sector local system rather than focusing on a single commercial center. This study employs a quantitative business analytics approach to examine retail closures within the counties. Secondary data are collected from publicly available sources, including county-level economic indicators, business establishment records, demographic data, and retail activity trends. Predictive modeling techniques, including time-series forecasting will be used to identify factors associated with retail closures. The study is expected to generate predictive insights that can support policymakers, economic development organizations, and small business stakeholders in designing targeted interventions to enhance retail sustainability. By integrating predictive analytics with regional economic analysis, this research contributes to developing a data-driven framework for understanding rural retail decline. This study is limited to secondary data reliance. While the study utilizes secondary data, this approach allows for the use of large-scale, standardized datasets that are appropriate for analyzing regional economic trends.
By Ann Kariuki; Indiana University of Pennsylvania    Clifford Kigunda; Indiana University of Pennsylvania    Nangi Mugira; Indiana University of Pennsylvania    Wanjiku Muthwii
Presented by: Wanjiku Muthwii,
Discussant:   David Yerger, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Differences in Employment Diversity and Relative Earnings Across Accounting, Finance, Economics, and Risk Management Occupations Abstract Annual data from 2002 to 2022 from the American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year Estimates is used to examine changes in the diversity of job holders in 16 different occupations related to Accounting, Finance, Economics, and Risk Management. Categorized by male, female, and seven different racial categories results in up to 14 different demographic groups in an occupation for which there is a count of number of workers and average earnings for the demographic group each year. Utilizing the employment count across demographic groups, we construct a Diversity Index (DI) measure, similar to those used in international trade pattern analysis, to assess changes over time in the DI measure for each of the 16 occupations. In a panel trend analysis framework, we find a strongly statistically significant trend improvement in the DI measures. Analyzing individually for each occupation, 13 of 16 occupations show statistically significant trend improvement in DI, none show statistically significant trend worsening of DI, and there is sizable variation in the rate of DI gain across the occupations. Relative earnings are expressed as a demographic group’s average earnings in an occupation divided by the average earnings for white males in that same occupation. The evidence of convergence in earnings towards earnings of white males is notably weaker than for the gains in the DI Index. For females, six of the 16 occupations have a significant positive common trend across the racial categories. For males, only one of the 16 occupations has a significant positive common trend across the racial categories and six occupations have a significant negative trend.
By Stephanie Brewer Jozefowicz; IUP    David Yerger; Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: David Yerger, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Discussant:   Robert Dunn, Washington & Jefferson College
Session 25: S1E: Energy Economics and Transition May 30, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Monongahela Room A
Session Chair: Todd Potts, University of Pittsburgh
Rethinking Energy Poverty Metrics: Evidence from Multidimensional, Burden-Based, and Access Indicators Abstract Abstract Energy poverty is increasingly recognized as a multidimensional constraint on household welfare, yet the literature employs widely varying measures—from simple binary access indicators (e.g., electricity connection), to affordability metrics such as energy burden, to composite indices like the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI). While these measures capture different facets of deprivation, their implications for household economic behavior remain insufficiently understood, particularly in low-income settings where energy poverty is structural rather than episodic. This paper examines how alternative measures of energy poverty correlate with household welfare outcomes in Nepal, a country where access to clean and reliable energy remains uneven despite rapid improvements in electrification. Using nationally representative household survey data, we construct and compare several indicators of energy poverty, including (i) access-based measures, (ii) affordability-based metrics such as the share of energy expenditure in total household spending, and (iii) a multidimensional composite index capturing deficiencies in cooking fuel, electricity access, appliance ownership, lighting, communication technologies, and indoor pollution—following approaches used in recent empirical studies. Descriptively, we document substantial variation in energy deprivation across regions, socio-economic groups, and gender of the household head. Multidimensional deprivation remains more pervasive than suggested by access-only indicators, consistent with prior findings for Nepal . We then examine the association between each energy-poverty measure and household welfare outcomes, including consumption, savings behavior, and ownership of productive assets. Across all measures, households classified as energy poor exhibit significantly lower consumption and sharply reduced savings, implying that energy poverty constrains both current welfare and future economic resilience. Importantly, multidimensional indicators capture deeper and more persistent forms of deprivation than narrow access-based metrics. Our findings highlight the need for policymakers to adopt broader, multidimensional approaches when assessing energy poverty and designing interventions—particularly in developing economies where access, reliability, and usability constraints jointly shape household welfare.
By Dhiroj Koirala; UMass Amherst
Presented by: Dhiroj Koirala, UMass Amherst
Discussant:   Todd Potts, University of Pittsburgh
The Changing Nexus Between Battery Production and Non-Fossil Fuel Electricity Production in U.S. Markets Abstract A key component of reducing greenhouse gas emissions is expanding electricity generation from non-fossil fuel sources (NFFS). The growth of intermittent wind and solar power has increased demand for battery storage to ensure continuous electricity supply. As utility-scale solar and wind combined with battery storage becomes cost-competitive with fossil fuel generation, understanding the linkages between battery production and NFFS electricity generation grows increasingly important. This paper investigates causality linkages in the U.S. market between monthly battery production and monthly NFFS electricity generation using seasonally adjusted data from January 2001 to June 2025. Traditional Granger-causality testing over the full sample period finds no causality in either direction. However, applying a time-varying Granger-causality method — using a rolling six-year window across the sample period — reveals widespread evidence of causality in both directions. Consistent causality findings emerge at longer lag lengths, typically eight months or more, which aligns with expected real-world delays in how shocks to either market propagate to the other. The frequency of no-causality, uni-directional, and bi-directional causality findings varies across the sample period; these variations are discussed in detail along with potential policy implications. These findings will be of interest to electricity market analysts and policymakers.
By Todd Potts; University of Pittsburgh
Presented by: Todd Potts, University of Pittsburgh
Discussant:   Erwin Erhardt, University of Cincinnati
Energy Pricing Reform in Bolivia Abstract Energy Pricing Reform in Bolivia" From 2006 down to 2025, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party in Bolivia ruled the nation for close to 20 years. Primarily under the three-term rule of President Evo Morales, then followed by his political ally, Luis Arce. Boliva’s economic fortunes seemed to be on the rise until 2014 and then began declining thereafter down to 2024, when the MAS failed in its bid for reelection. Between the ten-year period between 2004-2014, the Bolivian economy rapidly grew. This growth was powered by a ‘super-cycle’ (a prolonged period of growth), in both commodity prices and a strong rise in gas exports—primarily to Brazil. In 2004, Morales, promised to nationalize hydrocarbons (including the oil and gas industries), along with other resources. Thus, arriving in power during an export boom, the economy provided Morales and his new Socialist government with powerful export revenues, which brought forth a trade surplus coupled with a fiscal surplus. The fuel market was good, so Morales heavily subsidized fuel prices for the people, which remained very low (and very popular) for the next two decades. After nationalizing the gas and oil industries—along with tax increases in 2006, foreign producers began leaving the Bolivian market and terminating further exploration of these vital resources. As a result, after peaking between 2012 and 2015, gas exports reversed and went into decline. By the beginning of this current decade, Bolivia was now dependent on imported energy. In November 2025, Rodrigo Paz Pereira won the election. A center-right president representing the Christian Democratic Party, he implemented neo-liberal economic reforms and sought to readjust the energy market in Bolivia to come into line with real world pricing. This paper will explore/discuss the progress in energy pricing--which Paz implemented immediately--over the first six months of his presidency.
By Erwin Erhardt; University of Cincinnati
Presented by: Erwin Erhardt, University of Cincinnati
Discussant:   Dhiroj Koirala, UMass Amherst
Session 26: S1F: Financial Markets: Crypto, Gambling, and Funds May 30, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Monongahela Room B
Session Chair: Woosoon Kim, Alvernia University
Flight to Safety: Evaluating Stablecoin's Role as Safe Haven Asset in DeFi Markets Abstract This study examines the impact of Tether (USDT) on systemic liquidity across the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets, utilizing an event study approach that integrates on-chain wallet data, pricing, and financial metrics. By analyzing cryptocurrency market responses to key protocol and market-moving events, augmented by nonlinear volatility models, we identify distinct, chain-specific flight-to-safety behaviors. Our results show that USDT acts as a primary liquidity lifeline for Ethereum holders during stress, particularly among retail investors, whereas its role for Bitcoin holders is more muted and stabilizing. Notably, we find stronger flight-to-safety evidence in wrapped Bitcoin (Ethereum-based) compared to native Bitcoin, highlighting USDT's function is network-dependent. These findings underscore that effective crypto regulation must move beyond a monolithic approach, requiring tailored frameworks that reflect diverse investor behavior, specific network dynamics, and evolving market conditions.
By Alan Chernoff; The College of New Jersey    Julapa Jagtiani; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia    Nathaniel Yoshida; Rutgers University
Presented by: Nathaniel Yoshida, Rutgers University
Discussant:   Woosoon Kim, Alvernia University
The Economic Decline of Atlantic City and the Impact of Sports Betting Legalization Abstract This study examines the economic decline of Atlantic City prior to the legalization of sports betting and evaluates the extent to which legalized sports wagering has contributed to the city’s economic recovery. Once a major gambling hub following casino legalization in 1976, Atlantic City experienced significant economic deterioration beginning in the early 2000s. Increased regional competition from neighboring states, declining tourism, casino closures, and falling employment led to reduced tax revenues and broader urban decline. By the 2010s, the city faced multiple casino bankruptcies and fiscal instability, prompting policymakers to pursue new avenues for economic revitalization. This paper analyzes the economic impact of sports betting legalization following the 2018 Supreme Court decision in Murphy v. NCAA, which overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. Since legalization, New Jersey has emerged as one of the largest sports betting markets in the United States, generating over $10 billion in annual wagering handle in recent years and surpassing $40 billion in total handle between 2018 and 2023. Sports betting has produced hundreds of millions in taxable revenue, with over $500 million collected by the state. Atlantic City casinos have benefited from increased gaming revenue and partnerships with online sportsbook operators, while employment has expanded modestly in digital and operational roles. Mobile wagering, accounting for more than 80% of total bets, has significantly reshaped consumer behavior. However, much of this activity occurs online, limiting direct economic spillover to local businesses. While sports betting has strengthened the gaming sector and provided supplementary growth, its broader impact remains constrained. The study concludes that although sports betting has aided economic stabilization, long-term recovery requires diversification beyond reliance on gambling.
By Woosoon Kim; Alvernia University
Presented by: Woosoon Kim, Alvernia University
Discussant:   Umesh Ghimire, Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania
Frailty, Spousal Spillovers, and Mental Health Among Older Americans Abstract This paper examines the relationship between physical health and mental health among older Americans using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) spanning 1996–2020. I measure physical health using a comprehensive frailty index comprising 36 health indicators and mental health using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CESD) scale. Then I estimate dynamic panel models using system GMM, exploiting the panel structure of the HRS to address endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity. The paper documents several findings. In the full sample, poor physical health (frailty) has a significant and negative effect on one's own mental health. Subgroup analysis reveals meaningful heterogeneity: the effect is significant among men and among coupled individuals but is imprecisely estimated among women and single individuals. Among couples, I find that a spouse’s frailty has no significant effect on the mental health of the other spouse. Spouse’s mental health, however, has a significant and negative effect on the mental health of another spouse, indicating within-household mental health spillover effects. Further decomposition by gender reveals that this spousal mental health effect is driven primarily by coupled men, for whom the spouse's mental health has a significant and negative effect on their own mental health, while coupled women's mental health is unaffected by their spouse's mental health but responds more strongly to their own frailty. These findings suggest that the channels through which physical health affects mental health differ systematically by gender and household structure. The results have implications for how interventions targeting mental health in aging populations should account for spousal dynamics and gender-specific pathways, though further work is needed to identify the mechanisms underlying these patterns.
By Umesh Ghimire; Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania
Presented by: Umesh Ghimire, Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania
Session 27: S1G: Development Economics: Labor, Transfers, and Welfare May 30, 2026 9:00 to 10:15 Location: Conemaugh Room
Session Chair: Anusua Datta, Thomas Jefferson University
Why Numbers May Mislead: The Women-Work Paradox in India Abstract After a fairly consistent downward trend since the 1980s, the Indian female labour force participation rate (LFPR) has shown a consistent and significant upward trend since 2017-18, mainly due to a sharp increase in the rural female LFPR. The worker population ratio (WPR) has also increased during this period and has again been driven by an increase in the rural female WPR. This paper focuses on the factors contributing to these recent trends and whether they reflect actual improvements in job quality and job opportunities. It analyzes the growth of rural real wages for agriculture and non-agriculture labour and household earnings, employment in agriculture and non-agricultural sectors, the non-agricultural sectors accounting for the major share of female employment in urban India and the distribution of workers between regular wage (or salaried), self-employed and contractual jobs. The findings suggest that the sharp rise in the rural female LFPR has been driven more by economic distress with a decline in real wages and regular wage salaried jobs, compelling rural women to take up precarious types of self-employment on family agricultural farms to supplement household incomes. Even in urban areas, the rising female LFPR does not appear to be accompanied by improvements in job quality, with low-wage low-skill service and manufacturing activities continuing to account for the major share of female employment. The findings suggest a need for more active policy efforts to be directed towards allocations for the rural employment guarantee program whose majority beneficiaries are women, the establishment of more inclusive and affordable care giving facilities, rural infrastructural development projects to promote manufacturing activities in rural areas, public expenditures to generate quality jobs in the industrial sector and more concrete policies to protect workers in the informal sector.
By Suranjana Nabar-Bhaduri; Frostburg State University
Presented by: Suranjana Nabar-Bhaduri, Frostburg State University
Discussant:   Jiewen Luo, Rice University
Who Holds the Cash? A Structural Evaluation of Shifting Benefit Recipients from Mothers to Adolescents Abstract Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs typically target mothers to promote child welfare. However, rising adolescent autonomy raises questions about whether mothers remain the optimal recipients. This paper investigates how reassigning CCT payments from mothers to adolescents affects schooling, intrahousehold decision-making power, and individual welfare. Leveraging a randomized pilot within Mexico’s PROSPERA program, I develop and estimate a three-member collective household model with a father, a mother, and an adolescent. The model shows that the recipient change raises schooling propensity when the net effect of the bargaining-power shift and the induced reallocation of resources is positive. The structural estimates imply that assigning the transfer to adolescents shifts decision-making power away from parents and toward adolescents: for compliers, the mother’s Pareto weight falls by 0.071, while adolescents gain influence within the household. The welfare analysis further shows that the policy raises adolescents’ individual welfare, especially for girls, whose money-metric welfare index increases by 1.058, while fathers experience welfare losses and mothers’ welfare remains broadly unchanged. Counterfactual simulations then evaluate transfer schemes designed to boost enrollment, reduce gender gaps in adolescent schooling, and increase time investment in education, while accounting for government budgetary costs.
By Jiewen Luo; Rice University
Presented by: Jiewen Luo, Rice University
Discussant:   Anusua Datta, Thomas Jefferson University
The Impact of the One Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Law on Food Insufficiency and Housing Insecurity Among Low-Income Households Abstract The temporary expansion of the federal Child Tax Credit (CTC) from July through December 2021, enacted under the American Rescue Plan (ARP) during the COVID-19 pandemic, produced historically large reductions in child poverty, food insufficiency, and material hardship. The expiration of these provisions at the end of 2021, followed by enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) in July 2025, represents a major shift in the U.S. social safety net with potentially important consequences for low-income families with children. Although descriptive evidence suggests increases in hardship after the expiration of the pandemic-era CTC, causal evidence isolating the effects of subsequent policy changes—particularly on food insufficiency and housing insecurity—remains limited. Under the OBBB, the maximum CTC is approximately $2,200 per child, compared to $3,600 under the ARP expansion. The credit also returns to partial refundability and reintroduces earnings requirements. Consequently, households with little or no federal income tax liability—disproportionately low-income families—may receive reduced benefits or be excluded entirely. Prior to the 2021 expansion, roughly one-third of children lived in households that did not receive the full credit due to insufficient earnings (Crandall-Hollick, 2021). Additionally, the OBBB reinstates lump-sum payments at tax filing rather than the monthly advance payments implemented under the ARP, potentially affecting consumption smoothing and financial stability. This study evaluates the distributional and welfare effects of the post-2025 CTC structure established under the OBBB. Using nationally representative microdata from the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey and the American Community Survey, the analysis employs difference-in-differences and event-study methods to compare households with and without children before and after policy changes. Heterogeneous effects are examined across income, race and ethnicity, and family structure, with attention to single-parent households.
By Anusua Datta; Thomas Jefferson University
Presented by: Anusua Datta, Thomas Jefferson University
Discussant:   Suranjana Nabar-Bhaduri, Frostburg State University
Session 28: S2A: Microeconomic Theory and Measurement May 30, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Allegheny Room A
Session Chair: James Stratton, Harvard University
The Tip of the Iceberg: Deadweight Loss from Negative Externalities Abstract Negative externalities, or harms imposed on third parties outside the buy/sell transaction, are among the most familiar types of market failures, because many products and services, including fossil fuels, alcohol, tobacco, firearms, and gambling, can create negative externalities. As a remedy, corrective taxation on the sale of the output is commonly recommended, and provided that the tax rate is correctly calibrated, this is widely believed to solve the externality problem. Both the scholarly and pedagogical literatures contend that a Pigouvian tax equal to the marginal external cost per unit of output forces buyers and sellers to internalize the negative externalities and thereby leads to the socially optimal outcome. The present note reveals the fallacy of that argument. By clarifying the distinction between the deadweight loss caused by externalities and the externalities themselves, we demonstrate that levying a tax on the buyers and sellers only eliminates a fraction of the external costs—the tip of the iceberg—and thus perpetuates the market failure. Put differently, we show that although a Pigouvian tax removes the deadweight loss and achieves economic efficiency, the result cannot be socially optimal because even at the efficient level of output, quantifiable harms are imposed on others. If social optimality involves both economic efficiency and distributive justice, then it requires not only levying a tax but also reallocating of some or all of the tax revenue to either (a) eliminate the externalities that remain at the efficient level of output or (b) compensate the victims of those externalities. We determine the proportion of the tax revenue that must be reallocated to achieve a socially optimal outcome in each of four different models. The most realistic model highlights the importance of the own-price elasticity of supply in calculating the volume of revenue reallocation required for social optimality.
By Joseph Eisenhauer; University of Detroit Mercy
Presented by: Joseph Eisenhauer, University of Detroit Mercy
Discussant:   curtis haynes, Buffalo State University
Modeling Scarcity, Choice and Value in a World of Digital Abundance Abstract Abstract This paper revisits core principles of microeconomic theory—scarcity, choice, and value—within the context of a rapidly evolving digital economy. Traditional microeconomic models are grounded in conditions of material scarcity, where limited resources and increasing marginal costs structure production possibilities and economic decision-making. However, the expansion of digital technologies has introduced conditions in which certain goods approach zero marginal cost, distribution is nearly instantaneous, and productive capacity is increasingly augmented by automation and artificial intelligence. Rather than rendering scarcity obsolete, these developments shift its form. Scarcity persists, but migrates from material production toward constraints such as time, attention, coordination, and access to networks. In some cases, scarcity is also reintroduced through design, as in digitally scarce assets that impose fixed supply constraints within otherwise abundant environments. This transformation raises important questions regarding how value is formed and measured in environments characterized by digital abundance. Using the Production Possibility Curve as a foundational analytical framework, this paper reinterprets trade-offs, opportunity cost, and efficiency under conditions where technological change alters both the shape and movement of the frontier. The analysis distinguishes between movements along the frontier driven by reallocation and outward shifts driven by innovation, with particular attention to digital production processes. The paper contributes to microeconomic theory by extending the traditional scarcity-based framework to incorporate emerging forms of abundance without abandoning its analytical core. In doing so, it offers a conceptual bridge between established economic models and the realities of the digital economy, providing a basis for further exploration of value formation and economic behavior in technologically transformed environments.
By curtis haynes; Buffalo State University
Presented by: curtis haynes, Buffalo State University
Discussant:   James Stratton, Harvard University
The Explanatory Power of Causal Effects Abstract How much of the observed variation in an outcome Y does a variable X causally explain? We propose a causal \mathrm{R}^2 (CR^2) to answer such questions. CR^2 is the fit of a causal model, identified by combining observational and experimental data, and captures the reduction in Y's variance from eliminating X's causal effect. In applications, class size predicts 8\% of reading scores but causally explains only 3\%; institutions explain one-fifth of cross-country income variation; and salt intake raises blood pressure similarly across genders, but explains far less among women.
By James Stratton; Harvard University
Presented by: James Stratton, Harvard University
Discussant:   Joseph Eisenhauer, University of Detroit Mercy
Session 29: S2B: Education, AI, and Student Outcomes May 30, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Allegheny Room B
Session Chair: Ron Baker, Millersville University of PA
Student Perceptions of AI in Academic Use Abstract This study examines college students' attitudes and perceptions regarding the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in academic settings, with a specific focus on ethical considerations and the perceived benefits and detriments of its integration into coursework. As AI technologies increasingly reshape teaching and learning methodologies, understanding student perspectives is crucial for adapting educational practices. Through a quantitative survey approach, the research aims to compare students' personal expectations of AI tools with their actual usage and perceptions. Initial findings indicate a general awareness of AI applications, alongside a recognition of ethical dilemmas such as academic integrity and data privacy. Students reported both significant benefits, such as enhanced learning efficiency and personalized academic support, as well as concerns regarding over-reliance and ethical misuse. The study concludes by proposing strategies for educators to effectively incorporate AI in teaching practices while promoting ethical standards, ensuring that the educational experience remains engaging and responsible. Ultimately, this research contributes to the ongoing discourse about AI's role in academia and the need for informed approaches to its implementation in educational environments.
By Zeliha Ozdogan; Pennsylvania State University Harrisburg
Presented by: Zeliha Ozdogan, Pennsylvania State University Harrisburg
Combining AI, Extra Credit, and Service-Learning in One Assignment Abstract The Dean of the College of Business approached this instructor with an opportunity to get some promotional work done for a major event on campus as well as give a student or two a chance to build their portfolio by designing stickers via AI for the event in a narrow time frame of under three days. The instructor chose to turn it into an extra credit assignment for all 50 students in both in-person and online sections of Sports Marketing. The results were stunning. Forty percent of the students picked up this mantle and turned in new and improved versions of the original sticker designs that were shared with the classes. The event was Millersville University’s AI Symposium 3.0 held in late April 2026. The impetus to design stickers via AI fit the program perfectly. Even though the credit offered for this assignment was nominal, 15 points out of 1,000 points for the course, a higher than usual percentage of the students volunteered to try their hand at this exercise. The designs were so good that the event committee chose to physically print out several of them. Additionally, the students whose designs were chosen got experience making modifications with a real client. This was a good simulation of how “real world” edits happen. During the presentation, participants will see the rudimentary designs and materials that were passed along to the students. The students were asked to document which AI platform(s) they employed and what prompts they used along with their design submissions. This demonstrates the enthusiasm students can have for an assignment that builds relevant skills and resonates with them.
By Alexandra Hutto; Millersville University of PA
Presented by: Alexandra Hutto, Millersville University of PA
Discussant:   Ron Baker, Millersville University of PA
Determinants of Four-Year Graduation Rates Within PASSHE Abstract It is more important than ever for universities to examine factors that impact four-year graduation rates. Due to changes in demographics, government funding of higher education, and competitive pressures, universities that graduate a larger proportion of their students within four years may be more attractive to students. Four-year graduation rates may also be an outcome that is used to calculate performance funding from the state government. This research uses the Integrated Post Education Data System (IPEDS) to empirically estimate variables that impact graduation rates within PASSHE universities.
By Ron Baker; Millersville University of PA    Sandra McPherson; Millersville University
Presented by: Ron Baker, Millersville University of PA
Discussant:   Zeliha Ozdogan, Pennsylvania State University Harrisburg
Session 30: S2C: Trade, Finance, and Public Transparency May 30, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Knowlton Room
Session Chair: Xuebing Yang, Penn Sate Altoona
Asymmetric Effects of Export and Domestic Sales Volatilities on R&D Abstract This paper examines the impact of export and domestic sales volatilities on sector-level R&D investment, utilizing data from 19 manufacturing sectors across 42 countries between 1990 and 2021. A one-standard-deviation rise in export volatility reduces R&D expenditure by approximately 0.05 standard deviations, whereas volatility of domestic sales has no discernible effect. These findings are robust to alternative model specifications and volatility measures. Additional analysis suggests that the asymmetry arises from firms’ better information about domestic than export markets: volatility in geographically distant or culturally dissimilar export destinations depresses R&D spending most strongly.
By Xuebing Yang; Penn Sate Altoona
Presented by: Xuebing Yang, Penn Sate Altoona
Discussant:   Jui-Chi Huang, Penn State Berks
Linking Hedging to Foreign Exchange Volatility via a Study of the Taiwan’s Export Panel Data Abstract This project explores the hypothesis that the unresponsiveness of export pricing to exchange rate fluctuations may be partially the result of hedging activities trading agents engage in to eliminate exchange risk. In searching for answers to the incomplete pass-through phenomenon, the “new trade theory” has incorporated an industrial organization approach into pass-through studies at the product level. The new direction offered not only rich insight into the determination of exchange rate pass-through, but has also created more puzzling results. The present study argues that the pass-through issue is also governed by a firm-specific factor, i.e. hedging, in addition to the well-known ones, such as market share, product differentiation and market structure. Hedging against exchange rate uncertainty has an important effect on the structure of pass-through relation – a reduction in the exposure of currency conversion risk. This reduction leads to a decline in the “willingness,” rather than the “ability,” to pass the cost shock to consumers. The project will investigate Taiwan’s data on exports to show that hedging activities against exchange rate risk happen and decrease the degree of past-through to Taiwan’s export prices.
By Jui-Chi Huang; Penn State Berks
Presented by: Jui-Chi Huang, Penn State Berks
Discussant:   Thomas Armstrong,
PENNSYLVANIA TREASURY TRANSPARENCY AND OPENBOOKPA Abstract Transparency, understood as the openness, clarity, and accessibility of public financial information, is a priority of the Pennsylvania Treasury under Treasurer Stacy Garrity’s Strategic Plan 2025–2029. In pursuit of this goal, Treasury launched OpenBookPA on September 10, 2025, an enhanced transparency portal designed to provide the public with easily accessible, granular data on the Commonwealth’s finances. With improved navigation, design, and analytical features, the platform offers policymakers and citizens real time insight into state cash flows, appropriations, and fund management. OpenBookPA has more transparency tools that reduce information asymmetries, strengthen fiscal accountability, and support evidence-based policy decisions across economic stakeholders.
By Thomas Armstrong    Craig Magovern; Pennsylvania Treasury    Padmanabhan Narayanan; Pennsylvania Treasury
Presented by: Thomas Armstrong,
Discussant:   Xuebing Yang, Penn Sate Altoona
Session 31: S2D: Consumer Behavior, Identity, and Culture May 30, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Monongahela Room A
Session Chair: Brian Osoba, Central Connecticut State University
Racial Bias in Consumer Choice: Experimental Evidence from Airbnb Abstract This paper examines racial bias in consumer choice on Airbnb using a survey experiment that isolates demand-side preferences. Participants choose between two otherwise identical listings in which host race is randomly assigned through profile photos. We find that listings associated with Black hosts are 3.5 percentage points less likely to be selected. The gap remains statistically significant after controlling for listing attributes and participant fixed effects. Strong reputation signals, such as high ratings or Superhost status, reduce the racial disparity
By A. R. Shariq Mohammed; Northeastern University
Presented by: A. R. Shariq Mohammed, Northeastern University
Discussant:   Brian Osoba, Central Connecticut State University
Risk and Religious Choice: Evidence from Panel Data Abstract This empirical paper examines the influences that risk and time preference have on the strength of an individual’s religious belief. I employ ordered choice models to examine data from the 1970 to 1972 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. My results indicate that individuals partaking in less risky behavior tend to express stronger religiosity (in the form of church attendance) than those that behave in a more risky manner. Additionally, individuals having a high rate of time preference attend church less frequently, placing more value on current earthly activities and less concern with potential future consequences. So, individuals treat religion like other goods that exhibit uncertainty and that provide for a delayed expected future payoff.
By Brian Osoba; Central Connecticut State University
Presented by: Brian Osoba, Central Connecticut State University
Discussant:   Michael Zalot, Cedar Crest College
Legacy Content, New Markets: The Industrial Logic of Reusing Franchises, Stories, and Characters Abstract Media firms increasingly rely on franchises, legacy characters, and established story worlds as inputs to new production, not simply as a matter of nostalgia but as a strategy for managing uncertainty in high–fixed-cost cultural markets. Reusing recognizable intellectual property lowers demand risk, reduces customer acquisition and marketing costs through existing audience awareness, and extends the revenue life of narrative assets across theatrical release windows, streaming platforms, licensing markets, and global distribution channels. These practices also support long-tail monetization strategies by treating stories and characters as reusable capital that can be redeployed across sequels, spin-offs, remakes, and transmedia extensions over decades. As platform competition intensifies and subscriber retention becomes as important as box office performance, recognizable intellectual property increasingly operates not just as content but as infrastructure—anchoring ecosystems of related works that stabilize revenue expectations and reinforce market position in an environment defined by high sunk costs, volatile demand, and expanding global reach. This paper examines economic data from several key media franchises.
By Michael Zalot; Cedar Crest College
Presented by: Michael Zalot, Cedar Crest College
Discussant:   A. R. Shariq Mohammed, Northeastern University
Session 32: S2E: Business Operations and Consumer Decisions May 30, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Monongahela Room B
Session Chair: Brian Trout, Millersville University
Data security: More than IT issue for CPA firms Abstract Public accounting firms are prime targets for cyberattacks due to their access to sensitive financial and personally identifiable information. As cyber threats increase in frequency and sophistication, the consequences of a breach have become more severe. This article examines the importance of cybersecurity within CPA firms by identifying common threats and emerging risks, while emphasizing that cybersecurity is not merely an IT function but an organization-wide responsibility that requires active engagement from all personnel. The article outlines practical strategies for mitigating these risks and emphasizes the importance of vendor risk management and regulatory compliance, particularly under the Federal Trade Commission Safeguards Rule. Ultimately, cybersecurity is a core professional responsibility. CPA firms that prioritize data security can better protect client information, maintain trust, and support long-term stability in an increasingly digital environment.
By Brian Trout; Millersville University
Presented by: Brian Trout, Millersville University
Discussant:   David Nugent, Retired
The Effects of the Lack of Public Rest Rooms on Customer Attitudes Abstract This paper if a proposal for a survey study that will address the question of whether a lack of public rest rooms in a store adversely affects sales. Survey questions will include asking subjects whether a lack of public rest rooms would lead to less inclination to patronize that store.
By David Nugent; Retired
Presented by: David Nugent, Retired
Discussant:   Mark LeClair, Fairfield University
Evaluating Charities using Numerica-Based Criteria: Why such Assessments may Improperly Punish some Nonprofits Abstract Currently, the performance of charitable institutions is evaluated through the use of financial measures such as program expense and asset-liability ratios. Unlike for-profit firms, there is no figure comparable to earnings to use as a definitive figure for the efficacy of an institution. If, however, ratios such as program expenses vary with factors such as size, tenure and sector, then using such figures may provide poor comparisons across charities, leaving donors with no viable means of judging one nonprofit versus another. This paper will utilize a large sample of charities (n=320) to examine whether size, age of institution and focus (e.g. health) influence financial ratios. The organizations will be randomly selected from the database Charity Navigator. The paper will also provide some discussion of alternative measures of performance that may avoid the problems with current practices.
By Mark LeClair; Fairfield University
Presented by: Mark LeClair, Fairfield University
Discussant:   Brian Trout, Millersville University
Session 33: S2F: Public Policy, Environment, and Human Capital May 30, 2026 10:30 to 11:45 Location: Conemaugh Room
Session Chair: Billy Bataille, Seton Hall University
Congestion Pricing and EMS Response Time: Evidence From New York City Abstract Emergency Medical Services (EMS) represent an important part of the health care delivery system. EMS responds to roughly 240 million calls per year in the US and often represents the first point of contact between a patient and the health care system during a crisis. For certain emergencies, like cardiac arrest, stroke, severe trauma, and sepsis, every minute determines survival and long-term outcomes. When patients wait longer for emergency care, their conditions often worsen. A heart attack patient who waits 15 minutes instead of 8 may require far more intensive (and expensive) treatment, longer hospital stays, and more rehabilitation. Understanding the determinants of EMT delay represents an important economic issue. We analyze observed variation in EMS call time to reach an incident and time to transport a patient to a hospital. We exploit the implementation of a congestion price in certain parts of New York City (NYC) and the imposition of a policy requiring EMS crews to transport all patients — whether or not their condition was life-threatening — to the nearest hospital, to generate exogenous variation in factors affecting EMS response times. Using incident-level EMS dispatch data from NYC and a difference-in-differences approach, we compare outcomes for incidents originated inside and outside the congestion pricing zone before and after the two policy implementations. Based on a sample of about 1 million EMS calls in 2024 and 2025, or results show that EMS response times fell by about 1% following the implementation of the congestion pricing fee. The directive to go to the nearest hospital reduced EMS response times by about 10%. EMS call times from incidents to hospitals also changed in response to these policies.
By Iuliia Chikish; SUNY Purchase
Presented by: Iuliia Chikish, SUNY Purchase
Discussant:   Leyang Michael Fang, Harriton High School
Environmental Conditions and Consumer Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Air Quality and Advertising Response Abstract Environmental conditions are increasingly recognized as important drivers of economic behavior, yet their role in shaping consumer decision-making remains insufficiently understood. This study examines how perceived environmental quality influences consumer responses to environmentally framed product information, building on insights from environmental economics and consumer psychology. Using survey data from more than 1,000 respondents, each of whom evaluated alternative product messages and provided open-ended explanations of their preferences, we document a non-monotonic relationship between perceived environmental quality and preference for environmentally framed communication. Specifically, consumer responsiveness follows an inverted-U pattern: environmental messaging is most effective under moderate levels of perceived environmental degradation, but less effective when environmental conditions are either very good or very poor. To investigate the underlying mechanisms, we analyze the open-ended responses using a structured large language model (LLM) approach that converts unstructured text into quantitative indicators of psychological processes. Drawing on prior literature, we focus on four mechanisms: perceived risk salience, efficacy, skepticism, and avoidance. The results show that moderate environmental conditions are associated with higher perceived efficacy and lower levels of skepticism and avoidance, creating a psychological profile that is more receptive to environmental messaging. In contrast, both very clean and highly degraded environments are associated with reduced perceived efficacy and increased disengagement or doubt. These findings contribute to environmental economics by demonstrating that environmental conditions act as a contextual moderator of consumer choice rather than exerting a purely monotonic effect. They also contribute to consumer psychology by identifying the mechanisms through which environmental context shapes responses to sustainability-related information. More broadly, the results highlight the importance of incorporating situational environmental factors into models of consumer decision-making.
By Leyang Michael Fang; Harriton High School    Ella Jiawei Chen; Lower Merion High School    Haoyan Sun; Lehigh University
Presented by: Leyang Michael Fang, Harriton High School
Discussant:   Billy Bataille, Seton Hall University
Is the ROI of Higher Education Still Worth It? How AI Technology, Economic & Cultural Behavioral Disruptions Affect College Attendance Trends Abstract Abstract We will explore various Technological, Economic and Cultural Behavioral trends that directly and indirectly impacted the evaluation of the cost benefit analysis of college education, leading to a behavioral change in its demand. Cultural Behavioral trends have decreased the benefits of attending college. For example, even though multiple studies demonstrate that college pays for itself, a few caveats have to be considered such as the fact that attending certain colleges and graduating with certain degrees might not result in lower unemployment, employment in one’s field or may result in lower wages when compared to individuals that graduated with degrees that confer higher wages. But one must also account for the fact that higher wages will only be garnered in the long run. Hence, the pecuniary benefits are contingent on one’s discount rate, which have anecdotally increased in the past decades, as they have been influenced by Cultural changes leading to Behavioral adaptations. Other pervasive Cultural changes have also led to changes in attitudes towards the perceived value of higher education, which have in turn impacted various choice axes with regard to college education. Also, some Economic trends increased the costs of attending college. Direct costs include tuition, room and board, transportation, textbooks… Indirect costs include temporary loss of income, business opportunities,…. Although the former are more easily quantifiable, the latter is more qualitative as individuals are more and more driven by the possible and not the probable. Finaly, and in addition, because of the increasing integration of AI in the workplace, uncertainty now plagues the labor market for recent college graduates as it decreases their potential employment levels, and also decreases their potential future wages. This in turn exacerbates the decrease in the demand for college education as it decreases its added value proposition.
By Billy Bataille; Seton Hall University
Presented by: Billy Bataille, Seton Hall University
Discussant:   Iuliia Chikish, SUNY Purchase

 

This program was last updated on 2026-05-22 06:38:28 EDT