Program for 2002 North American Summer Meetings

Summary of All Sessions

#Date/TimeLocationTitlePapersOrganizer
120 June
18:00-20:00
Grand Horizon Terrace Welcoming Reception0Gary Hansen
221 June
8:30-10:30
Salon D Empirical International Macro4John Rust
321 June
8:30-10:30
Salon F Learning4Larry Samuelson
421 June
8:30-10:30
Salon E Child Health: Analysis and Policies2Anne Case
521 June
8:30-10:30
South Bay Depressions, Durables and Dispersion2Patrick Kehoe
621 June
8:30-10:30
Salon C Asset Pricing Theory3Peter Bossaerts
721 June
8:30-10:30
West Coast Topics in contract theory3Pierre-Andre Chiappori
821 June
8:30-10:30
Salon B Empirical Auctions and Procurement4Steve Berry
921 June
8:30-10:30
North Ridge Panel Data3Werner Ploberger
1021 June
10:45-12:45
Salon F Matching Models4Larry Samuelson
1121 June
10:45-12:45
Salon E Household decisionmaking4Anne Case
1221 June
10:45-12:45
South Bay Dynamic Macro-Theory4Patrick Kehoe
1321 June
10:45-12:45
Salon C Financial Econometrics4Peter Bossaerts
1421 June
10:45-12:45
West Coast Topics in mathematical economics4Pierre-Andre Chiappori
1521 June
10:45-12:45
Salon B Empirical Studies Productivity4Steve Berry
1621 June
10:45-12:45
North Ridge Unit Roots and Cointegration4Werner Ploberger
1721 June
12:45-14:15
Covel Commons, Room 210 Standing Committee Luncheon (Invitation Only)0William Zame
1821 June
14:15-16:15
Salon G Empirical models with explicit nominal rigidities4Julio Rotemberg
1921 June
14:15-16:15
Salon F Collective Decisions3Larry Samuelson
2021 June
14:15-16:15
Salon E Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Spillovers4Anne Case
2121 June
14:15-16:15
South Bay Trade and Growth4Patrick Kehoe
2221 June
14:15-16:15
Salon C Theory of Finance4Peter Bossaerts
2321 June
14:15-16:15
Salon B Empirical Models of Industry Structure4Steve Berry
2421 June
14:15-16:15
North Ridge Microeconometrics4Werner Ploberger
2521 June
16:45-17:00
Northwest Auditorium Frisch Medal0William Zame
2621 June
17:00-18:15
Northwest Auditorium Presidential Address1William Zame
2721 June
18:30-22:00
buses leave from Sproul Turn-around Excursion to 3rd Street Promenade0Gary Hansen
2822 June
8:30-10:30
Salon F Incentives3Larry Samuelson
2922 June
8:30-10:30
Salon B On the Use of Subjective Data4Ken Wolpin
3022 June
8:30-10:30
West Coast Product Quality3Lawrence Ausubel
3122 June
8:30-10:30
Salon E Models of Growth and Inequality4Anne Case
3222 June
8:30-10:30
Salon G The behavior of investment3Julio Rotemberg
3322 June
8:30-10:30
South Bay Transition and Growth4Patrick Kehoe
3422 June
8:30-10:30
Salon C Financial Markets: Empirics4Peter Bossaerts
3522 June
8:30-10:30
North Ridge Testing and Model Specification3Werner Ploberger
3622 June
10:45-12:45
Salon F Incomplete Contracts3Larry Samuelson
3722 June
10:45-12:45
Salon B Issues in Labor Demand4Ken Wolpin
3822 June
10:45-12:45
Salon G Empirical models with explicit nominal rigidities4Julio Rotemberg
3922 June
10:45-12:45
South Bay International Business Cycles5Patrick Kehoe
4022 June
10:45-12:45
Salon C Financial Market Microstructure4Peter Bossaerts
4122 June
10:45-12:45
Salon E Education4Raquel Fernandez
4222 June
10:45-12:45
North Ridge Likelihood and Quasi-likelihood3Werner Ploberger
4322 June
10:45-12:45
West Coast Information Acquisition3Lawrence Ausubel
4422 June
14:15-16:15
Salon F Auctions3Larry Samuelson
4522 June
14:15-16:15
Salon B Estimating Treatment Effects4Ken Wolpin
4622 June
14:15-16:15
Salon C Monetary Policy and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism4Roger Farmer
4722 June
14:15-16:15
South Bay International Macro: Theory and Data4Patrick Kehoe
4822 June
14:15-16:15
Salon E Labor Markets and Education3Raquel Fernandez
4922 June
14:15-16:15
North Ridge Inference under Nonstationarity4Werner Ploberger
5022 June
14:15-16:15
West Coast Antitrust and Vertical Relationships3Lawrence Ausubel
5122 June
14:15-16:15
Salon A Tour of Experimental Laboratory (CASSEL)0David Levine
5222 June
14:15-16:15
Salon D Urban and Real Estate Data: Informational Presentation0David Levine
5322 June
16:45-18:00
Northwest Auditorium Walras-Bowley Lecture1William Zame
5422 June
18:15-21:30
buses leave from Sproul turn-around Excursion to Getty Center0Gary Hansen
5523 June
8:30-10:30
Salon B Real Estate Markets3Walter Torous
5623 June
8:30-10:30
Salon D Foundations of Equilibrium2Larry Samuelson
5723 June
8:30-10:30
Salon F Economic Fluctuations3Roger Farmer
5823 June
8:30-10:30
South Bay Integration, Exchange Rates and Transition4Patrick Kehoe
5923 June
8:30-10:30
Salon C Price discrimination, product differentiation4Bryan Ellickson
6023 June
8:30-10:30
Salon E Political Economy2Raquel Fernandez
6123 June
8:30-10:30
North Ridge Estimation4Werner Ploberger
6223 June
8:30-10:30
West Coast Auctions I3Lawrence Ausubel
6323 June
10:45-12:45
Salon C Health, Disability, and Labor Supply4John Rust
6423 June
10:45-12:45
Salon B Issues in Finance3Eduardo Schwartz
6523 June
10:45-12:45
Salon G Asset Markets and Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium4David Levine
6623 June
10:45-12:45
Salon D Experimental Economics4John Van Huyck
6723 June
10:45-12:45
Salon F Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Models4Roger Farmer
6823 June
10:45-12:45
South Bay Money and Social Security3Patrick Kehoe
6923 June
10:45-12:45
Salon E Political Institutions3Raquel Fernandez
7023 June
10:45-12:45
North Ridge Non and Semiparametric Inference4Werner Ploberger
7123 June
10:45-12:45
West Coast Auctions II3Lawrence Ausubel
7223 June
14:00-16:00
Salon C Retirement and Social Security4John Rust
7323 June
14:00-16:00
Salon B Real Investments3Eduardo Schwartz
7423 June
14:00-16:00
Salon G Preferences and Decisions3Ariel Rubinstein
7523 June
14:00-16:00
Salon E Fiscal Federalism4Roger Gordon
7623 June
14:00-16:00
Salon F Learning, Indeterminacy and Sunspots in Macroeconomics4Roger Farmer
7723 June
14:00-16:00
South Bay Macro-Labor4Patrick Kehoe
7823 June
14:00-16:00
North Ridge Unit Root Tests with Panel Data3Werner Ploberger
7923 June
14:00-16:00
West Coast Contracts and Hierarchies4Lawrence Ausubel
8023 June
14:00-16:00
Salon D Theory of Money3William Zame
8123 June
16:30-17:30
Northwest Auditorium Plenary Address1William Zame
8223 June
17:45-19:00
Grand Horizon Terrace Reception0Gary Hansen
8323 June
19:00-21:00
Grand Horizon Ballroom Conference Dinner0Gary Hansen
8424 June
8:30-10:30
Salon C Repeated Games3Larry Samuelson
8524 June
8:30-10:30
Salon E Public Economics4Roger Gordon
8624 June
8:30-10:30
Salon F Empirical Macroeconomics3Roger Farmer
8724 June
8:30-10:30
South Bay Currency and Banking Crises5Patrick Kehoe
8824 June
8:30-10:30
Salon B Informational Issues in Finance3Walter Torous
8924 June
8:30-10:30
Salon G Applied game theory4Bryan Ellickson
9024 June
8:30-10:30
West Coast Markets with Resale4Lawrence Ausubel
9124 June
10:45-12:45
Salon D Econometric Methods4John Rust
9224 June
10:45-12:45
Salon C Repeated Games II3Larry Samuelson
9324 June
10:45-12:45
Salon F Nominal Rigidities2Roger Farmer
9424 June
10:45-12:45
Salon G Money, Search and Inflation4Patrick Kehoe
9524 June
10:45-12:45
South Bay New Trade Theory and Speculation4Patrick Kehoe
9624 June
10:45-12:45
Salon B Volatility and Correlation Modeling3Walter Torous
9724 June
10:45-12:45
Salon E The Development of Cities3Therese McGuire
9824 June
10:45-12:45
West Coast Models of Trading and Market Structure4Lawrence Ausubel
 

98 sessions, 308 papers


 

Program for 2002 North American Summer Meetings

Complete List of All Sessions


Session 1: Welcoming Reception

Session Organizer: Gary Hansen, UCLA
Date: June 20, 2002
Time: 18:00 - 20:00
Location: Grand Horizon Terrace

Session 2: Empirical International Macro

Session Organizer: John Rust, University of Maryland
Session Chair: Talan Iscan, Dalhousie University
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon D
 

Temporary Increases in Tariffs and Machine Replacement: the Chilean Experience, 1980-1996
Presented by: Hiroyuki Kasahara, University of Wisconsin-Madison
 

How sure are we about the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis ? Time Series versus Panel Data Approach for OECD countries
Presented by: Christophe Rault, Sorbonne University
 

Confidence intervals for half-life deviations from Purchasing Power Parity
Presented by: Barbara Rossi, Duke University
 

Productivity, Investment, and Current Accounts: Reassesing the Evidence
Presented by: Jaime Marquez, Federal Reserve Board

Session 3: Learning

Session Organizer: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Session Chair: Susan Lee, Florida State University
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon F
 

Imitative Learning
Presented by: James Bergin, Queen's Univ/ City Univ
 

Nonmyopic Optimality of Conditional Learning
Presented by: Yuichi Noguchi, Hitotsubashi University
 

Continuous Fictitious Play and Projective Geometry
Presented by: Ulrich Berger, Vienna University of Economics
 

Learning Competitive Equilibrium
Presented by: Stephen Spear, Carnegie Mellon University

Session 4: Child Health: Analysis and Policies

Session Organizer: Anne Case, Princeton University
Session Chair: Partha Deb, IUPUI
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon E
 

Government Programs and Nutrient Intakes of Children: A System of Equations with Multiple Treatments
Presented by: Steven Yen, University of Tennessee
 

Got Health? Advertising, Medicaid and Child Health
Presented by: Anna Aizer, UCLA

Session 5: Depressions, Durables and Dispersion

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Lee Ohanian, UCLA
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: South Bay
 

Presented by: ,
 

Consumption and Saving over the Life Cycle: How Important are Consumer Durables?
Presented by: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, University of Pennsylvania
 

Intranational Price Dispersion and International Relative Price Volatility
Presented by: George Alessandria, Ohio State University

Session 6: Asset Pricing Theory

Session Organizer: Peter Bossaerts, California Institute of Technology
Session Chair: Thomas Tallarini, Carnegie Mellon University
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon C
 

Statistical Arbitrage and Securities Prices
Presented by: oleg bondarenko, University of Illinois -- Chicago
 

Equilibrium Asset Pricing Under Heterogeneous Information
Presented by: Peter Bossaerts, Caltech and CEPR
 

Existence of Strongly Rational Expectations Equilibria on Asset Markets with Asymmetric Information
Presented by: Maik Heinemann, University of Frankfurt

Session 7: Topics in contract theory

Session Organizer: Pierre-Andre Chiappori, University of Chicago
Session Chair: Illoong Kwon, University of Michigan
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: West Coast
 

Threat of Dismissal as an Incentive Device
Presented by: Illoong Kwon, University of Michigan
 

Bilateral Specific Investments, Hold-up and Efficient Contract Remedy
Presented by: M'hand Fares, INRA-ESR and University of Paris 1
 

Optimal Contracts under Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection: a Continuous-Time Approach
Presented by: Jaeyoung Sung, University of Illinois at Chicago

Session 8: Empirical Auctions and Procurement

Session Organizer: Steve Berry, Yale University
Session Chair: Victor Stango, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon B
 

The Stochastic Implications of Rent Maximization: An Application to Stumpage Rates in British Columbia
Presented by: Harry Paarsch, University of Iowa
 

Attitutes toward Risk and Asymmetric Bidding: Evidence from Construction Procurements
Presented by: Sandra CAMPO, University of Southern California
 

Combination Bidding in Multi-Unit Auctions
Presented by: Estelle Cantillon, Harvard University
 

Need for Speed: Demand Estimation using Auction Data
Presented by: Octavian Carare, Rutgers University

Session 9: Panel Data

Session Organizer: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Session Chair: Hyungsik Roger Moon, University of Southern California
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: North Ridge
 

Homogeneous, heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption
Presented by: Badi Baltagi, Texas A&M University
 

Random-Effects Estimation for Spatially Autocorrelated Unbalanced Panel Data, Spatial Aggregation Bias, and the Case of Transboundary Air Pollution
Presented by: Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia
 

Disentangling Age, Cohort and Time Effects with Minimal Assumptions
Presented by: David Mckenzie, Stanford University

Session 10: Matching Models

Session Organizer: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Session Chair: Roger Lagunoff, Georgetown University
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon F
 

Social networks and resulting patterns and dynamics in employment and wages
Presented by: Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
 

Risk Sharing versus Incentives: Contract Design under Two-Sided Heterogeneity
Presented by: Konstantinos Serfes, SUNY-Stony Brook
 

State Dependent Assortativity
Presented by: Susan Lee, Florida State University
 

Ecologies of Preferences with Envy as an Antidote to Risk-Aversion in Bargaining
Presented by: Yaacov Bergman, Hebrew University

Session 11: Household decisionmaking

Session Organizer: Anne Case, Princeton University
Session Chair: Ethan Ligon, University of California, Berkeley
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon E
 

Efficiency Wages for Rotten Kids
Presented by: Ethan Ligon, University of California, Berkeley
 

Determinants of Child Labor and School Attendance: The Role of Household Unobservables
Presented by: Partha Deb, IUPUI
 

Why Ban the Worst Forms of Child Labour?
Presented by: Sylvain Dessy, Universite Laval
 

Endogenous Gender Power and Economic Development
Presented by: Murat Iyigun, University of Colorado

Session 12: Dynamic Macro-Theory

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Kevin Reffett, Arizona State University
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: South Bay
 

Government Expenditure and Stochastic Growth: Optimal Policy and the Role of the Risk Premium
Presented by: Christiane Clemens, University of Hannover
 

A Qualitative Approach to Monotone Markovian Equilibrium in NonOptimal Infinite Dimensional Economies with Capital
Presented by: Kevin Reffett, Arizona State University
 

Competitive Equilibria of Economies with a Continuum of Consumers and Aggregate Shocks
Presented by: Jianjun Miao, University of Rochester
 

Government Debt as Insurance against Macroeconomic Risk
Presented by: Ashok Kaul, IZA, University of Bonn

Session 13: Financial Econometrics

Session Organizer: Peter Bossaerts, California Institute of Technology
Session Chair: Ivana Komunjer, California Institute of Technology
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon C
 

Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests. Asymptotic and Bootstrap Methods.
Presented by: Raffaella Giacomini, University of California, San Diego
 

High volatility, thick tails and extreme value theory in Value-at-Risk estimation
Presented by: Faruk Selcuk, Bilkent University
 

Estimation and Inference in ARCH Models in the Presence of Outliers
Presented by: Jonathan Reeves, University of New South Wales
 

On the Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence in Stock Returns for Asset Allocation
Presented by: Andrew Patton, University of California, San Diego

Session 14: Topics in mathematical economics

Session Organizer: Pierre-Andre Chiappori, University of Chicago
Session Chair: Michael Jerison, SUNY Albany
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: West Coast
 

TheWeak Axiom in the Aggregate and Ideal Panel Data
Presented by: Michael Jerison, SUNY Albany
 

Multiplicity, Instability and Sunspots in Games
Presented by: Julio Davila, University of Pennsylvania
 

Transfer Fee Regulations in European Professional Soccer
Presented by: Gerd Muehlheusser,
 

Externality Policy Reform: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Presented by: sushama murty, University of California, Riverside

Session 15: Empirical Studies Productivity

Session Organizer: Steve Berry, Yale University
Session Chair: Estelle Cantillon, Harvard University
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon B
 

Nonparametric Analysis of Cost Complementarities in the Telecommunications Industry
Presented by: Arie Beresteanu, Duke University
 

Cooperation in R&D and SAmple Selection
Presented by: Claudio Piga, Nottingham University
 

Is Equipment Price Deflation a Statistical Artifact?
Presented by: Bart Hobijn, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
 

Trading quasi-emission permits
Presented by: Juan-Pablo Montero, Catholic University of Chile/MIT

Session 16: Unit Roots and Cointegration

Session Organizer: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Session Chair: Yongmiao Hong Hong, Cornell University
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: North Ridge
 

Tests for unit-root versus Threshold specification with an application to the PPP
Presented by: Marine Carrasco, University of Rochester
 

Functional-Coefficient Models Under Unit Root Behavior
Presented by: Ted Juhl, University of Kansas
 

Residuals Based Tests For Cointegration: An Analytical Comparison.
Presented by: Elena Pesavento, Emory University
 

Cointegration Test in the Threshold Cointegration Model
Presented by: myunghwan seo, university of wisconsin, madison

Session 17: Standing Committee Luncheon (Invitation Only)

Session Organizer: William Zame, UCLA
Session Chair: Julie Gordon, Econometric Society/Northwestern Univers
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 12:45 - 14:15
Location: Covel Commons, Room 210

Session 18: Empirical models with explicit nominal rigidities

Session Organizer: Julio Rotemberg, Harvard University
Session Chair: Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon G
 

Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy
Presented by: Roberto Rigobon, MIT
 

Why did the term structure of interest rates lose its predictive power ?
Presented by: Caroline JARDET, CREST-EUREQua
 

behavior and importance of loan components after monetary policy shocks and non-monetary shocks
Presented by: Wouter Denhaan, UCSD
 

Identifying VARs Based on High Frequency Futures Data
Presented by: Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve Board

Session 19: Collective Decisions

Session Organizer: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Session Chair: Thomas Wiseman, University of Texas at Austin
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon F
 

Cross-Ownership Among Firms: Some Determinants of the Separation of Ownership from Control
Presented by: Jamsheed Shorish, Institute for Advanced Studies
Discussant: Kim-Sau Chung, Northwestern University
 

Party formation in collective decision-making
Presented by: Martin J. Osborne, University of Toronto
Discussant: Ruqu Wang, Queen's University
 

Credible Communication in Dynastic Government
Presented by: Roger Lagunoff, Georgetown University
Discussant: Eric Rasmusen, Indiana University

Session 20: Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Spillovers

Session Organizer: Anne Case, Princeton University
Session Chair: Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay, London School of Economics
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon E
 

Investment decision and the spatial dimension: Evidence from firm level data
Presented by: Rosella Nicolini, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
 

Weightless Machines and Costless Knowledge. An Empirical Analysis of GTrade adn Technology Diffusion
Presented by: Isidro Soloaga, Universidad de las Americas-Puebla
 

DO PRODUCTIVITY SPILLOVERS FROM JAPANESE AND U.S. FDI Differ?
Presented by: RASHMI BANGA, JESUS AND MARY COLLEGE
 

Investment Liberalization - Who Benefits from Cross-Border Mergers & Acquisitons?
Presented by: Lars Persson, Research Institute of Industrial Economi

Session 21: Trade and Growth

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Rui Castro, University of Montreal
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: South Bay
 

Trade effects on the personal distribution of wealth
Presented by: Francesc Obiols-Homs, ITAM
 

Economic Development under Alternative Trade Regimes
Presented by: Rui Castro, University of Montreal
 

Technological Progress and Wage Inequality: The Role of Product Life Cycle and Trade
Presented by: Priya Ranjan, UC-Irvine
 

Embodied Technical Change, Capital Taxation and Economic Growth
Presented by: Roberto Samaniego, The George Washington University

Session 22: Theory of Finance

Session Organizer: Peter Bossaerts, California Institute of Technology
Session Chair: Peter Bossaerts, California Institute of Technology
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon C
 

A Time-to-Build Model of Dynamic Portfolio Choice
Presented by: Monique Ebell, Humboldt-University of Berlin
 

Dynamic Portfolio Choice and Risk Aversion
Presented by: Thomas Tallarini, Carnegie Mellon University
 

Harsh Default Penalties or Warrants: The Impact of Limited Liability Rules
Presented by: Michel Robe, Kogod School of Business at AU
 

Dynamic Capital Structure with Callable Debt and Debt Renegotiations
Presented by: Kristian Risgaard Miltersen, University of Southern Denmark

Session 23: Empirical Models of Industry Structure

Session Organizer: Steve Berry, Yale University
Session Chair: Harry Paarsch, University of Iowa
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon B
 

A Dynamic Olgopoly Structural Model for the Prescription DrugMarket After Patent Expiration
Presented by: Andrew Ching, The Ohio State University
 

Price Ceilings as Focal Points for Tacit Collusion: Evidence from the Credit Card Market
Presented by: Victor Stango, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
 

Firm Size Distribution: Testing the “Independent Submarkets Model” in the Italian Motor Insurance Industry
Presented by: Tommaso Valletti, Imperial College
 

Does trade liberalization improve productivity? Plant level evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry
Presented by: Sule Ozler, UCLA

Session 24: Microeconometrics

Session Organizer: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Session Chair: Marine Carrasco, University of Rochester
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: North Ridge
 

Efficient semiparametric estimation of censored and truncated regressions via a smoothed empirical likelihood
Presented by: Stephen Cosslett, Ohio State University
 

Semiparametric Estimation of a Panel Data Proportional Hazards Model with Fixed Effects
Presented by: Sokbae "Simon" Lee, University of Iowa
 

Estimation of Semiparametric Binary Choice Models Using Probit Criterion Functions
Presented by: Shakeeb Khan, University of Rochester
 

Distribution-free Estimation of the Box-Cox Regression Model With Censoring
Presented by: Songnian Chen, Hong Kong University of Science and Tech

Session 25: Frisch Medal

Session Organizer: William Zame, UCLA
Session Chair: David Levine, UCLA
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 16:45 - 17:00
Location: Northwest Auditorium

Session 26: Presidential Address

Session Organizer: William Zame, UCLA
Session Chair: David Levine, UCLA
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 17:00 - 18:15
Location: Northwest Auditorium
 

Income Maintenance and Labor Force Participation
Presented by: Guy Laroque, ENSAE

Session 27: Excursion to 3rd Street Promenade

Session Organizer: Gary Hansen, UCLA
Date: June 21, 2002
Time: 18:30 - 22:00
Location: buses leave from Sproul Turn-around

Session 28: Incentives

Session Organizer: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Session Chair: Geir B. Asheim, Stanford University
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon F
 

Something to prove: Hiring to create reputational incentives for the employer
Presented by: Heski Bar-Isaac, LSE and Tel Avi University
Discussant: Susan Lee, Florida State University
 

Implementation with Near Complete Information
Presented by: Jeffrey Ely, Northwestern University
Discussant: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Harvard University
 

Mechanism Design by an Informed Principal - Pure-Strategy Equilibria with a Countability Restriction for a Common Value Model
Presented by: Rolf Tisljar, Bonn Graduate School of Economics
Discussant: Thomas Wiseman, University of Texas at Austin

Session 29: On the Use of Subjective Data

Session Organizer: Ken Wolpin, University of Pennsylvania
Session Chair: John Ham, The Ohio State University
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon B
 

Assessing Expectations - Attitude or Behavior?
Presented by: James R. Walker, University of Wisconsin
 

"Who Becomes a Stockholder?"
Presented by: Robert Willis, University of Michigan
 

An Experimental Study of Information Cascades using Elicited Probabilities
Presented by: Jeff Dominitz, Carnegie Mellon University
 

Subjective Measures of Risk Aversion and Portfolio Choice
Presented by: Arie Kapteyn, RAND

Session 30: Product Quality

Session Organizer: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
Session Chair: Jacques Lawarree, University of Washington
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: West Coast
 

Quality Disclosure in Markets for Differentiated Products: Consumer Heterogeneity and the Non-Robustness of the 'Unraveling Result'
Presented by: Mo Xiao, UCLA
 

Coordination in Markets with Consumption Externalities: The Role of Advertising and Product Quality
Presented by: Tuvana Pastine, Bilkent University and CEPR
 

On Doctors, Mechanics and Computer Specialists or Where are the Problems with Credence Goods
Presented by: Uwe Dulleck, University of Vienna

Session 31: Models of Growth and Inequality

Session Organizer: Anne Case, Princeton University
Session Chair: Lars Persson, Research Institute of Industrial Economi
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon E
 

Models of Growth and Inequality: An Evaluation
Presented by: Hyeok Jeong, USC
 

Twin Peaks - Distribution Dynamics of Economic Growth across Indian states
Presented by: Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay, London School of Economics
 

Social Polarization, Industrialization and Fiscal Instability: Theory and Evidence
Presented by: Jaejoon Woo, OECD
 

Income Distribution as a Pattern of Trade
Presented by: Jose Wynne, Duke University

Session 32: The behavior of investment

Session Organizer: Julio Rotemberg, Harvard University
Session Chair: Wouter Denhaan, UCSD
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon G
 

Aggregate investment dynamics - when firms face fixed investment cost and capital market imperfections
Presented by: Christian Bayer, University of Dortmund
 

Corporate Dollar Debt and Devaluations
Presented by: Hoyt Bleakley, MIT
 

Tax Policy and Irreversible Investment
Presented by: Sumru Altug, University of York and CEPR

Session 33: Transition and Growth

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Wenli Li, Board of Governors
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: South Bay
 

Policies to Free a Trapped Economy: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa
Presented by: Krishna Kumar, USC Marshall School of Business
 

Growth Effects of Progressive Taxes
Presented by: Wenli Li, Board of Governors
 

How Trade Policy Affects Technology Adoption and Productivity
Presented by: Arilton Teixeira, IBMEC
 

Underground economy and the transition process : a quantitative view
Presented by: Martial Dupaigne, GREMAQ

Session 34: Financial Markets: Empirics

Session Organizer: Peter Bossaerts, California Institute of Technology
Session Chair: Raffaella Giacomini, University of California, San Diego
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon C
 

Hidden cointegration
Presented by: Gawon Yoon, Pusan National University
 

Nonparametric Specification Tests of Continuous-Time Models with Application to Spot Rate Models
Presented by: Haitao Li, Cornell University
 

The Neglected Effect of Fiscal Policy on Stock and Bond Returns
Presented by: Jose Tavares, Universidade Nova, Lisbon
 

The Skewness Premium and the Asymmetric Volatility Puzzle
Presented by: Canlin Li, University of Pennsylvania

Session 35: Testing and Model Specification

Session Organizer: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Session Chair: Badi Baltagi, Texas A&M University
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: North Ridge
 

End-of-sample Parameter Instability Tests
Presented by: Donald Andrews, Yale University
 

Granger Causality in Risk and Detection of Risk Transmission Between Two Time Series
Presented by: Yongmiao Hong Hong, Cornell University
 

Dimension reduction for statistical controls
Presented by: John W. Galbraith, McGill University

Session 36: Incomplete Contracts

Session Organizer: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Session Chair: Eric Rasmusen, Indiana University
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon F
 

Limited Observability as a Constraint in Contract Design
Presented by: Steven Williams, University of Illinois
Discussant: Geir B. Asheim, Stanford University
 

Trust and Discretion in Agency Contracts
Presented by: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Harvard University
Discussant: Heski Bar-Isaac, LSE and Tel Avi University
 

The Law and Economics of Costly Contracting
Presented by: Joel Watson, UCSD
Discussant: Hadi Esfahani, University of Illinios

Session 37: Issues in Labor Demand

Session Organizer: Ken Wolpin, University of Pennsylvania
Session Chair: James R. Walker, University of Wisconsin
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon B
 

Multi-tasking and the Returns to Experience
Presented by: Parama Chaudhury, NYU
 

Team Incentives and Worker Heterogeneity: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Teams on Productivity and Participation
Presented by: Barton Hamilton, Olin School of Business, Washington Univ
 

The Shape of Hiring and Separation Costs : Concave but not fixed
Presented by: Michaud Marie-Laure, EUREQua - Université Paris 1
 

Incentives in Economics Departments: Testing Tournaments?
Presented by: Frederic Warzynski, LICOS CTE, KU Leuven

Session 38: Empirical models with explicit nominal rigidities

Session Organizer: Julio Rotemberg, Harvard University
Session Chair: Roberto Rigobon, MIT
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon G
 

Nominal versus Real Wage Rigidities: A Bayesian Approach
Presented by: Pau Rabanal, NYU
 

Structural Shocks and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
Presented by: Soyoung Kim, Univ of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
 

Optimal Monetary Policy with Durable and Non-Durable Goods
Presented by: Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board
 

Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy
Presented by: Kevin Moran, Bank of Canada

Session 39: International Business Cycles

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Kevin Huang, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: South Bay
 

Terms of Trade Risk
Presented by: Talan Iscan, Dalhousie University
 

An Input-Output Channel of International Monetary Policy Transmission
Presented by: Zheng Liu, Emory University
 

International Monetary Policy Coordination: Effects on Welfare and Business Cyles in a Two-Country World
Presented by: Robert Kollmann, University of Bonn
 

Can We Beat the Random Walk Forecasts of Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate? A Structural Approach
Presented by: Lise Patureau, University of Paris I
 

Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries
Presented by: Jaewoo Lee, IMF

Session 40: Financial Market Microstructure

Session Organizer: Peter Bossaerts, California Institute of Technology
Session Chair: oleg bondarenko, University of Illinois -- Chicago
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon C
 

The Impact of Illegal Insider Trading in Dealer and Specialist Markets: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Presented by: Raymond P.H. Fishe, University of Miami
 

Equilibrium Option Pricing and Market Incompleteness Driven by Illiquidity
Presented by: João Amaro de Matos, Universidade Nova de Lisboa
 

Asymmetry of Information, Market Liquidity and the Activity of the Specialist on the NYSE
Presented by: Thierry Kamionka, CNRS and CREST
 

Estimating the Impact of Private Information on Volatility
Presented by: Douglas Steigerwald, UC Santa Barbara

Session 41: Education

Session Organizer: Raquel Fernandez, NYU
Session Chair: Steven Lehrer, Wharton School, Univ. of Pennsylavania
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon E
 

Evaluation of a focalized education program: the P900 program
Presented by: Andrea Tokman, Central Bank of Chile
 

Education Choice Under Uncertainty
Presented by: Vincent Hogan, UCD
 

Communities, Youth Crime and Deterrence: A Quantitative Theoretic Analysis
Presented by: Peter Bearse, U. of North Carolina at Greensboro
 

Do Peers Affect Student Achievement in China's Secondary Schools?
Presented by: Steven Lehrer, Wharton School, Univ. of Pennsylavania

Session 42: Likelihood and Quasi-likelihood

Session Organizer: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Session Chair: John W. Galbraith, McGill University
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: North Ridge
 

Higher Order Properties of the Bootstrap Bias Corrected Maximum Likelihood Estimator
Presented by: Guido Kuersteiner, MIT
 

Multivariate-ARCH: Bias evaluation for the ML estimator
Presented by: Emma M. Iglesias, Cardiff University
 

QUASI-MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION FOR CONDITIONAL QUANTILES
Presented by: Ivana Komunjer, California Institute of Technology

Session 43: Information Acquisition

Session Organizer: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
Session Chair: Preston McAfee, University of Texas
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: West Coast
 

Investment in Information Gathering
Presented by: Jacques Lawarree, University of Washington
 

The value of information in auctions
Presented by: Marcus Hagedorn, University of Bonn/IZA
 

Information Acquisition in Cournot Markets: A (Enhanced ) Two-Stage Approach
Presented by: Eliane Catilina, american university

Session 44: Auctions

Session Organizer: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Session Chair: Ruqu Wang, Queen's University
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon F
 

Strategic Implications of Uncertainty Over One's Own Private Value in Auctions
Presented by: Eric Rasmusen, Indiana University
Discussant: Roger Lagunoff, Georgetown University
 

Optimal Repeated Auction with Collusive Bidders
Presented by: Kim-Sau Chung, Northwestern University
Discussant: Steven Williams, University of Illinois
 

Optimal Auctions with Endogenous Entry
Presented by: Lixin Ye, The Ohio State University
Discussant: Konstantinos Serfes, SUNY-Stony Brook

Session 45: Estimating Treatment Effects

Session Organizer: Ken Wolpin, University of Pennsylvania
Session Chair: Robert Willis, University of Michigan
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon B
 

Missing Treatments
Presented by: Francesca Molinari, Northwestern University
 

Selection and Matching Estimates of the Effect of Migration on the Wages of Young Men
Presented by: John Ham, The Ohio State University
 

Does subsidised temporary employment get the unemployed back to work ? An econometric analysis of two different schemes
Presented by: Michael Lechner, University of St Gallen
 

Assessing the Extent and Consequences of Randomization Biais in the Canadian SSP Experiment
Presented by: Guy Lacroix, Université Laval

Session 46: Monetary Policy and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

Session Organizer: Roger Farmer, UCLA
Session Chair: Stacey Schreft, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon C
 

Has Inventory Investment Been Liquidity-Constrained? Evidence from U.S. Panel Data
Presented by: Woon Gyu Choi, IMF
 

Debt Deflation, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle
Presented by: Matteo Iacoviello, London School of Economics
 

Financial Integration in a Monetary UnionSimon
Presented by: Hubert Kempf, University of Paris, I
 

The Conduct of Monetary Policy with a Shrinking Stock of Government Debt
Presented by: Stacey Schreft, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Session 47: International Macro: Theory and Data

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: George Alessandria, Ohio State University
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: South Bay
 

Persistence in Law-of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence From Micro-Data
Presented by: Mario Crucini, Vanderbilt University
 

On the Non-Monotonic Relationship Between Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate
Presented by: Amartya Lahiri, UCLA
 

Optimal Exchange Rate Policy, Optimal Incomplete Taxation and Business Cycles
Presented by: Alexandre Cunha, Ibmec School of Business
 

The Impact of Financial Frictions on a Small Open Economy: When Current Account Borrowing Hits a Limit
Presented by: Diego Valderrama, Duke University

Session 48: Labor Markets and Education

Session Organizer: Raquel Fernandez, NYU
Session Chair: jan eeckhout, Upenn
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon E
 

Education policy and the labour market performance
Presented by: olivier charlot, GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée
 

Learning, Employer Competition, and Common Values
Presented by: jan eeckhout, Upenn
 

Migration and Human Capital Formation: Theory and Evidence from the US High School Movement
Presented by: Rodney Ramcharan, International Monetary Fund

Session 49: Inference under Nonstationarity

Session Organizer: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Session Chair: Ted Juhl, University of Kansas
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: North Ridge
 

Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration
Presented by: Katsumi Shimotsu, University of Essex
 

Kernel Regression for Non-Stationary Harris Processes.
Presented by: Guillermo Moloche, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
 

Partially Nonstationary Autoregressive Models without Prior Knowledge on the Reduced Rank Structure: Estimation and Testing
Presented by: Chor-yiu SIN, Hong Kong Baptist University
 

Optimal versus Robust Inference in Nearly Integrated Non Gaussian Models
Presented by: Samuel Thompson, Harvard University

Session 50: Antitrust and Vertical Relationships

Session Organizer: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
Session Chair: Robert C. Marshall, Penn State University
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: West Coast
 

A Theory of Bilateral Oligopoly, with Applications to Vertical Mergers
Presented by: Preston McAfee, University of Texas
 

Naked Exclusion, Efficient Breach, and Downstream Competition
Presented by: Abraham Wickelgren, Federal Trade Commission
 

Avoiding Head-to-Head Competition on the Big Screen: The Economics of Movie Distribution
Presented by: Darren Filson, Claremont Graduate University

Session 51: Tour of Experimental Laboratory (CASSEL)

Session Organizer: David Levine, UCLA
Session Chair: David Levine, UCLA
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon A

Session 52: Urban and Real Estate Data: Informational Presentation

Session Organizer: David Levine, UCLA
Session Chair: Steve Cauley, UCLA
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 14:15 - 16:15
Location: Salon D

Session 53: Walras-Bowley Lecture

Session Organizer: William Zame, UCLA
Session Chair: David Levine, UCLA
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 16:45 - 18:00
Location: Northwest Auditorium
 

Measuring Consumer Behavior: Semiparametric Estimation and Revealed Preference
Presented by: Richard Blundell, University College, London

Session 54: Excursion to Getty Center

Session Organizer: Gary Hansen, UCLA
Date: June 22, 2002
Time: 18:15 - 21:30
Location: buses leave from Sproul turn-around

Session 55: Real Estate Markets

Session Organizer: Walter Torous, UCLA
Session Chair: Eduardo Engel, Yale University
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon B
 

Highway Franchising and Real Estate Values
Presented by: Eduardo Engel, Yale University
 

Woodhead Behavior and the Pricing of Residential Mortgages
Presented by: Yongheng Deng, University of Southern California
 

Housing and the Market Price of Risk
Presented by: Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Stanford University

Session 56: Foundations of Equilibrium

Session Organizer: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Session Chair: Jeffrey Ely, Northwestern University
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon D
 

Lexicographic probabilities and rationalizability
Presented by: Geir B. Asheim, Stanford University
Discussant: James Bergin, Queen's Univ/ City Univ
 

Common Assumption of Rationality in Games
Presented by: Amanda Friedenberg, Harvard University
Discussant: Martin J. Osborne, University of Toronto

Session 57: Economic Fluctuations

Session Organizer: Roger Farmer, UCLA
Session Chair: Vincenzo Quadrini, Stern School of Business, NYU
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon F
 

Persistent Output and Inflation With Prices Set for One Period
Presented by: Alok Johri, McMaster University
 

Stock Market Boom and Economic Expansion
Presented by: Vincenzo Quadrini, Stern School of Business, NYU
 

Why Should Policy-makers Care About Inflation and Output Variability? The Role of Monetary Policy Stabilization under Asymmetric Information
Presented by: Stefan Krause, The Ohio State University

Session 58: Integration, Exchange Rates and Transition

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Amartya Lahiri, UCLA
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: South Bay
 

A Theory of Endogenous Nontradability and its Implications for Intertemporal Trade
Presented by: Paul Bergin, UC Davis
 

Convex Adjustment Costs, Complementary Capital, and Neoclassical Transition Dynamics
Presented by: Jordan Rappaport, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
 

Endogenous Incomplete Markets: The Dynamics of the Terms of Trade and the Trade Balance
Presented by: Almuth Scholl, Humboldt University Berlin
 

Does Trade Integration Generate Higher Business Cycle Synchronization?
Presented by: Cesar Calderon, Central Bank of Chile

Session 59: Price discrimination, product differentiation

Session Organizer: Bryan Ellickson, UCLA
Session Chair: Preston McAfee, University of Texas
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon C
 

Monotonicity in direct revelation mechanisms
Presented by: Diego Garcia, Tuck School, Dartmouth College
 

Quality of Information and Oligopolistic Price Discrimination
Presented by: Qihong Liu, State Univ. of New York
 

Is perfect price discrimination really efficient? An analysis of free entry
Presented by: Ted To, Bureau of Labor Statistics
 

Optimum Differentation
Presented by: Randal Heeb, INSEAD

Session 60: Political Economy

Session Organizer: Raquel Fernandez, NYU
Session Chair: Hadi Esfahani, University of Illinios
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon E
 

Social Polarization, Fiscal Instability, and Growth
Presented by: Jaejoon Woo, OECD
 

Reputation Effects in Electoral Competition
Presented by: Scott Ashworth, Harvard University

Session 61: Estimation

Session Organizer: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Session Chair: Shakeeb Khan, University of Rochester
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: North Ridge
 

Efficiency profiles of MM estimators in dynamic panel data models
Presented by: Jan Kiviet, University of Amsterdam
 

M-estimators with Non Standard Rates of Convergence and Weakly Dependent Data
Presented by: mehmet caner, university of pittsburgh
 

Linear Estimation of Weak VARMA Models with a Macroeconomic Application
Presented by: Denis Pelletier, CRDE, CIRANO
 

Maximum Likelihood Estimator of Change-Point in ARMA-GARCH Models
Presented by: Ling Shiqing, Hong Kong University of Science and Tech

Session 62: Auctions I

Session Organizer: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
Session Chair: Leslie Marx, University of Rochester
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: West Coast
 

The Affiliation Effect in First-price Auctions
Presented by: Guofu Tan, University of British Columbia
 

Presented by: ,
 

Toward a Theory of Strategic Markets with Incomplete Information: Existence of Isotone Equilibrium
Presented by: Eiichiro Kazumori,
 

Private Information Revelation in Common-Value Auctions
Presented by: vladimir Mares, Olin School of Business

Session 63: Health, Disability, and Labor Supply

Session Organizer: John Rust, University of Maryland
Session Chair: Arie Kapteyn, RAND
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon C
 

Health Insurance, Habits and Health Outcomes: Moral Hazard in a Dynamic Stochastic Model of Investment in Health
Presented by: Ahmed Khwaja, Duke University
 

Option Value and Dynamic Programming Models of SSDI Application
Presented by: J.S. Butler, Cornell University
 

A Dynamic Analysis of Women's Labor Supply, Fertility, and Child Development: Is Maternal Employment Bad for Child Development
Presented by: Frank Heiland, SUNY Stony Brook
 

Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice: An Empirical Analysis
Presented by: Hugo Benitez-Silva, SUNY-Stony Brook

Session 64: Issues in Finance

Session Organizer: Eduardo Schwartz, UCLA
Session Chair: Rossen Valkanov, UCLA
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon B
 

The Liquidity Premium in a Dynamic Bargaining Market
Presented by: Pierre-Olivier Weill, Stanford University
 

On the Impossibility of Efficient Investment in Innovation
Presented by: Andrei Kirilenko, International Monetary Fund
 

A Dynamic Model of Optimal Firm Diversification
Presented by: Dmitry Livdan, Wharton School

Session 65: Asset Markets and Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium

Session Organizer: David Levine, UCLA
Session Chair: Felipe Zurita, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon G
 

Liquidity as an insurance problem
Presented by: Felipe Zurita, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
 

Participation Externalities
Presented by: Helios Herrera, NYU
 

Virtual Determinacy among Overlapping Generations
Presented by: Jonathan Burke, IUPUI
 

Dynamic Processes of Social and Economic Interaction: On the Persistence of Inefficiencies
Presented by: Armando Gomes, Univ. of Pennsylvania

Session 66: Experimental Economics

Session Organizer: John Van Huyck, Texas A&M University
Session Chair: Miguel Costa-Gomes, University of York and CalTech
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon D
 

Learning, Non-Equilibrium Beliefs, and Non-Pecuniary Payoffs in an Experimental Game
Presented by: Miguel Costa-Gomes, University of York and CalTech
 

Coordination and Cooperation in Local, Random and Small World Networks: Experimental Evidence
Presented by: Alessandra Cassar, University of California Santa Cruz
 

Behavior in a Dynamic Decision Problem: Evidence from the Laboratory
Presented by: Daniel Houser, George Mason University
 

The Effect of Offer Verifiability on the Relationship between Auctions and Multilateral Negotiations
Presented by: Charles Thomas, University of Rochester and FTC

Session 67: Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Models

Session Organizer: Roger Farmer, UCLA
Session Chair: Jang-Ting Guo, UC Riverside
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon F
 

A Real Business Cycles Model with Changing Sentiments
Presented by: kirill sosunov, New Economic School
 

Endogenous Labor Supply, Gross Substitutability, and Robustness of Multiple Equilibria in OLG Economies
Presented by: Patrick PINTUS, Universite Aix-Marseille II
 

Aggregate Demand Management and Equilibrium Selection
Presented by: Todd Keister, ITAM and Univ. of Texas at Austin
 

On the Business Cycle Effects of Government Spending
Presented by: Jang-Ting Guo, UC Riverside

Session 68: Money and Social Security

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Andrew Atkeson, UCLA
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: South Bay
 

Can a Baumol-Tobin model account for the short run behavior of velocity?
Presented by: Andrew Atkeson, UCLA
 

Time Inconsistent Preferences and Social Security
Presented by: Selo Imrohoroglu, USC Marshall School of Business
 

Social Security as Markov Equilibrium in OLG models
Presented by: Lorenzo Forni, Bank of Italy

Session 69: Political Institutions

Session Organizer: Raquel Fernandez, NYU
Session Chair: Cecile Aubert, University of Cambridge
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon E
 

Political Renegotiation of Regulatory Contracts
Presented by: Cecile Aubert, University of Cambridge
 

Political Institutions and Redistribution
Presented by: Thomas Renstrom, University of Rochester
 

A Political Economy Model of Resource Pricing with Evidence from the Fuel Market
Presented by: Hadi Esfahani, University of Illinios

Session 70: Non and Semiparametric Inference

Session Organizer: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Session Chair: Stephen Cosslett, Ohio State University
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: North Ridge
 

nonparametric analysis of mixture models with verification
Presented by: Robert Sherman, Caltech
 

Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form
Presented by: Silvia Goncalves, Université de Montréal
 

Some Genericity Results for Semi-nonparametric Econometrics
Presented by: Maxwell Stinchcombe, University of Texas
 

Nonparametric Heteroskedasticity Correction when the Number of Conditioning Variables is Small
Presented by: Joris Pinkse, UCLA

Session 71: Auctions II

Session Organizer: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
Session Chair: Steven Williams, University of Illinois
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: West Coast
 

Bidder Collusion
Presented by: Leslie Marx, University of Rochester
 

Ascending Auctions with Package Bidding
Presented by: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
 

Common Value Auctions with Asymmetrically Informed Bidders
Presented by: Sergio Parreiras, University of North Carolina

Session 72: Retirement and Social Security

Session Organizer: John Rust, University of Maryland
Session Chair: Robert Willis, University of Michigan
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 14:00 - 16:00
Location: Salon C
 

Effects of Payroll Taxes on Employment and Wages: Evidence from the Colombian Social Security Reform
Presented by: Maurice Kugler, Southampton University
 

Maximum Score Estimation of Binary Choice Panel Data Models with Sample Selection: an Application to Navy Officer Retention
Presented by: Walter Mayer, University of Mississippi
 

The Effect of Part-Time Work on Wages: Evidence from the Social Security Rules
Presented by: Eric French, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
 

Retirement Expectations Formation using the Health and Retirement Study
Presented by: Debra Dwyer, SUNY Stony Brook

Session 73: Real Investments

Session Organizer: Eduardo Schwartz, UCLA
Session Chair: Randall morck, University of Alberta
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 14:00 - 16:00
Location: Salon B
 

Value Enhancing Capital Budgeting and Firm-Specific Stock Returns Variation
Presented by: Artyom Durnev, University of Michigan
 

The Value of Waiting to Learn
Presented by: Herve Roche, ITAM
 

Virtual Underlying Security
Presented by: Sophie Pardo, GREQAM

Session 74: Preferences and Decisions

Session Organizer: Ariel Rubinstein, Tel Aviv University
Session Chair: Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 14:00 - 16:00
Location: Salon G
 

An Axiomatic Characterization Of Bayes' Rule
Presented by: Dipjyoti Majumdar, Indian Statistical Institute
 

Hold your horses: Loss-aversion and optimism in the market for thoroughbreds
Presented by: Angela Hung, Carnegie Mellon University
 

The Structure of Intertemporal Preferences under Uncertain Lifetime
Presented by: Yoram Halevy, University of British Columbia

Session 75: Fiscal Federalism

Session Organizer: Roger Gordon, UC San Diego
Session Chair: Roger Lagunoff, Georgetown University
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 14:00 - 16:00
Location: Salon E
 

Admission, Tuition and Financial Aid Policies in the Market of Higher Education: Theory and Evidence
Presented by: Holger Sieg, Carnegie Mellon University
 

Equalization and Tax Competition: Theory and Evidence
Presented by: Leonzio Rizzo, London School of Economics
 

Uniform or Different Policies?
Presented by: Bard Harstad, Harvard University
 

Non linear and asymmetric adjustment in the local revenue-expenditure models: some evidence from the Italian municipalities
Presented by: Gabriella Legrenzi, Brunel University

Session 76: Learning, Indeterminacy and Sunspots in Macroeconomics

Session Organizer: Roger Farmer, UCLA
Session Chair: Thomas Lubik, Johns Hopkins University
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 14:00 - 16:00
Location: Salon F
 

Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles
Presented by: Laura Veldkamp, Stanford University/INSEAD
 

Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables
Presented by: Bruce Mcgough, Oregon State University
 

Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy
Presented by: Thomas Lubik, Johns Hopkins University
 

Openness and Equilibrium Determinacy under Interest Rate Rules
Presented by: Fiorella De Fiore, European Central Bank

Session 77: Macro-Labor

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Wenli Li, Board of Governors
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 14:00 - 16:00
Location: South Bay
 

Young Workers, Skills and Cities
Presented by: Giovanni Peri, University of California, Davis
 

An Investigaton of U.S. Consumer Bankruptcy and Chapter Choices
Presented by: Wenli Li, Board of Governors
 

Should good workers be kept out of bad jobs?
Presented by: Martine Carré, CREST - GEMMA
 

Outsourcing, Entry in Product Market and The Rise in Job Uncertainty.
Presented by: David Thesmar, INSEE CREST

Session 78: Unit Root Tests with Panel Data

Session Organizer: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Session Chair: Werner Ploberger, University of Rochester
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 14:00 - 16:00
Location: North Ridge
 

Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors
Presented by: Hyungsik Roger Moon, University of Southern California
 

Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data where the time dimension is finite
Presented by: Kaddour Hadri, The University of Liverpool
 

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test. An application to the rate of unemployment
Presented by: Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, University of Barcelona

Session 79: Contracts and Hierarchies

Session Organizer: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
Session Chair: Sandeep Baliga, Northwestern University
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 14:00 - 16:00
Location: West Coast
 

Monitoring a Common Agent
Presented by: Fahad Khalil, University of Washington
 

Flattened Resource Allocations, Separation of Ownership and Control, and Diversification of the Firm
Presented by: Szu-Wen Chou, UCLA
 

A Model of Academic Tenure
Presented by: Kalyan Chatterjee, Penn State University
 

Market Contingent Managerial Hierarchies
Presented by: Timothy Van Zandt, INSEAD

Session 80: Theory of Money

Session Organizer: William Zame, UCLA
Session Chair: Ross M. Starr, University of California, San Diego
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 14:00 - 16:00
Location: Salon D
 

General Equilibrium in a Segmented Market Economy with Convex Transaction Cost: Existence, Efficiency, Commodity and Fiat Money
Presented by: Ross M. Starr, University of California, San Diego
 

Cooperation and Indirect Exchange: An Experimental Investigation
Presented by: Markus Mobius, Harvard University
 

Cooperation and Indirect Exchange: An Experimental Investigation
Presented by: Tanya Rosenblat, Wesleyan University

Session 81: Plenary Address

Session Organizer: William Zame, UCLA
Session Chair: William Zame, UCLA
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 16:30 - 17:30
Location: Northwest Auditorium
 

A Simple Model of Intertemporal Asset Pricing
Presented by: Michael Brennan, UCLA

Session 82: Reception

Session Organizer: Gary Hansen, UCLA
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 17:45 - 19:00
Location: Grand Horizon Terrace

Session 83: Conference Dinner

Session Organizer: Gary Hansen, UCLA
Date: June 23, 2002
Time: 19:00 - 21:00
Location: Grand Horizon Ballroom

Session 84: Repeated Games

Session Organizer: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Session Chair: Kim-Sau Chung, Northwestern University
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon C
 

Informational Smallness and Private Monitoring
Presented by: Ichiro Obara, UCLA
Discussant: Julian Jamison, Northwestern Kellogg
 

The Folk Theorem with Private Monitoring
Presented by: Hitoshi Matsushima, University of Tokyo
Discussant: Jeffrey Ely, Northwestern University
 

A Folk Theorem for Games with Unknown Payoff Distributions
Presented by: Thomas Wiseman, University of Texas at Austin
Discussant: Pedro Dal Bó, UCLA

Session 85: Public Economics

Session Organizer: Roger Gordon, UC San Diego
Session Chair: Holger Sieg, Carnegie Mellon University
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon E
 

Self-employment and risk
Presented by: Paul Willen, University of Chicago
 

How Bad Is BAD Taxation? Disintermediation and Illiquidity in a Bank Account Debits Tax Model
Presented by: Pedro Albuquerque, Texas A&M International University
 

Transitional and Long Run Effects of Reforming Social Security in Brazil
Presented by: Sergio Ferreira, BNDES
 

"Bayesian Juries and the Limits to Deterrence"
Presented by: Ezra Friedman, Federal Trade Commission

Session 86: Empirical Macroeconomics

Session Organizer: Roger Farmer, UCLA
Session Chair: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon F
 

The Vector Floor and Ceiling Model
Presented by: Simon Potter, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
 

Markov Switching in Disaggregate Unemployment Rates
Presented by: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California
 

Human Capital and Convergence: A Production-Frontier Approach
Presented by: Daniel J. Henderson, University of California at Riverside

Session 87: Currency and Banking Crises

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Ivan Pastine, Bilkent University and CEPR
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: South Bay
 

Financial Liberalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Economies
Presented by: John Jones, SUNY-Albany
 

Panic, Boom and Bust: Excess Demand and Consumption Smoothing During Speculative Attacks
Presented by: Ivan Pastine, Bilkent University and CEPR
 

Why is Currency Attack/Peg Prolonged?
Presented by: Chi-Shing Chan, University of Hong Kong
 

Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals
Presented by: Alessandro Prati, IMF
 

Moral hazard effects of bailing out under asymmetric information
Presented by: Gabriela Mundaca, University of Oslo

Session 88: Informational Issues in Finance

Session Organizer: Walter Torous, UCLA
Session Chair: Neelam Jain, Rice University
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon B
 

Informational Asymmetries and a Multiplier Effect on Price Correlation and Trading
Presented by: Marcelo Pinheiro, Princeton University
 

Stock Grants as a Commitment Device
Presented by: Gian Luca Clementi, Carnegie Mellon University
 

Debt, Managerial Incentives and Learning
Presented by: Neelam Jain, Rice University

Session 89: Applied game theory

Session Organizer: Bryan Ellickson, UCLA
Session Chair: Joel Watson, UCSD
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: Salon G
 

Communication and Information Management: Organizations and Markets
Presented by: Mikko Leppamaki, University of Helsinki
 

Stationary Strategies in Stochastic Games
Presented by: Subir Chakrabarti, IUPUI
 

Strategic Communication and Recommendation Incentives
Presented by: Erik Durbin, Washington University
 

A Theory of Advice based on Information Search Incentives
Presented by: Philippe Marcoul, Iowa State University

Session 90: Markets with Resale

Session Organizer: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
Session Chair: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 8:30 - 10:30
Location: West Coast
 

Monopoly with Resale
Presented by: Alessandro Pavan, Northwestern University
 

Too Much of a Good Thing? Resale and the Coase Conjecture
Presented by: Johannes Horner, KSM, Northwestern University
 

buyer coalition against monopolistic screening: on the role of asymmetric information among buyers
Presented by: doh-shin jeon, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
 

A Model of Exchange where Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder
Presented by: Lones Smith, University of Michigan

Session 91: Econometric Methods

Session Organizer: John Rust, University of Maryland
Session Chair: Badi Baltagi, Texas A&M University
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon D
 

Finite Mixture Distributions, Sequential Likelihood, and the EM Algorithm
Presented by: Arcidiacono Peter, Duke University
 

Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models
Presented by: Susumu Imai, Pennsylvania State University
 

Interpretation of Regressions with Multiple Proxies
Presented by: Darren Lubotsky, Princeton University
 

Latrogenic Specification Error: Cleaning Data Can Exacerbate Measurement Error Bias
Presented by: Christopher R. Bollinger, University of Kentucky

Session 92: Repeated Games II

Session Organizer: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Session Chair: Ichiro Obara, UCLA
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon C
 

Switching costs in infinitely repeated games
Presented by: Ruqu Wang, Queen's University
Discussant: Ichiro Obara, UCLA
 

Tacit Collusion under Interest Rate Fluctuations
Presented by: Pedro Dal Bó, UCLA
Discussant: Hitoshi Matsushima, University of Tokyo
 

On Voluntary and Repeatable Partnerships under No Information Flow
Presented by: Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Keio University
Discussant: Joel Watson, UCSD

Session 93: Nominal Rigidities

Session Organizer: Roger Farmer, UCLA
Session Chair: Sara Castellanos, Banco de México
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon F
 

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities and Employment: Microeconomic Evidence of Mexico
Presented by: Sara Castellanos, Banco de México
 

New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting
Presented by: Richard Mash, Oxford University

Session 94: Money, Search and Inflation

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: Yiting Li, National Tsing Hua University
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon G
 

Private Money, Bank Operations and Government Regulations
Presented by: Yiting Li, National Tsing Hua University
 

Modeling the Effect of Inflation: Growth, Levels, and Tobin
Presented by: Max Gillman, Central European University
 

Monetary Policy and Lexicographic Preference Ordering
Presented by: Zeno Rotondi, University of Rome and Banca di Roma
 

Endogenous Credit Risk and Intermediation in a Search Model of Money
Presented by: Gabriele Camera, Purdue University

Session 95: New Trade Theory and Speculation

Session Organizer: Patrick Kehoe, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session Chair: stephen yeaple, university of pennsylvania
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: South Bay
 

International Productivity Differences, Infrastructure, and Comparative Advantage
Presented by: stephen yeaple, university of pennsylvania
 

Technical Barriers to Trade: Does Information Matter? A simple Theory and some Empirical Evidence
Presented by: piergiuseppe fortunato, Universita' degli Studi di Bologna
 

Modeling cultural barriers in international trade
Presented by: Istvan Konya, Boston College
 

The Speculators' Behavior in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises
Presented by: Raphael Franck, ESSEC Business School

Session 96: Volatility and Correlation Modeling

Session Organizer: Walter Torous, UCLA
Session Chair: Markku Lanne, University of Helsinki
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon B
 

The Persistence and Asymmetry of Time-Varying Correlations
Presented by: Dirk Baur, University of Tuebingen
 

Nonlinear GARCH Models for Highly Persistent Volatility
Presented by: Markku Lanne, University of Helsinki
 

News Arrival, Jump Dynamics and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns
Presented by: John Maheu, University of Toronto

Session 97: The Development of Cities

Session Organizer: Therese McGuire, University of Illinois - Chicago
Session Chair: Hongbin Cai, UCLA
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: Salon E
 

Urbanization and Growth
Presented by: Luisito Bertinelli, CORE
 

Tiebout Meets Alonso
Presented by: Kuzey Yilmaz, University of Rochester
 

Outsourcing Business Services and the Role of Central Administrative Offices
Presented by: Yukako Ono, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Session 98: Models of Trading and Market Structure

Session Organizer: Lawrence Ausubel, U. Maryland
Session Chair: Lones Smith, University of Michigan
Date: June 24, 2002
Time: 10:45 - 12:45
Location: West Coast
 

Market Research and Market Design
Presented by: Sandeep Baliga, Northwestern University
 

Intermediated Markets with Posted Prices
Presented by: Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon University
 

R&D Contests with Spillovers
Presented by: Haiwen Zhou, University of Maryland
 

Capacity Dynamics and Endogenous Asymmetries in Firm Size
Presented by: ulrich doraszelski, hoover institution