55 sessions, 173 papers

2009 Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society
Complete List of All Sessions

Session 1: Presidential Address- Understanding the foundations of institutions: Moral Hazard in High Office (Roger Myerson)
Session Chair: John Quiggin, University of Queensland
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 8:45 - 10:30
Location: MCC2
Leadership, Trust and Power: Dynamic Moral Hazard in High Office
Presented by: Roger Myerson,

Session 2: Macroeconomics: Growth, Frictions, Policy
Session Chair: Adam Cagliarini, Reserve Bank of Australia
Session JEL code: D52; J31
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: MCC4
Means-tested Age Pension and Homeownership: Is There a Link?
JEL codes: E21, E62, H55
Presented by: Renuka Sane, UNSW
Reconciling Micro-data and Macro Estimates of Price Stickiness
[slides]
Presented by: Adam Cagliarini, Reserve Bank of Australia
Health, Endogenous Time Preference, and Inequality: A Political Economy Perspective
Presented by: Radhika Lahiri, Queensland University of Technology

Session 3: Learning, Evolution and Revolution
Session Chair: Emin Gahramanov, Deakin University
Session JEL code: C61; C73
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: MCC5
Evolutionary Dynamics of the Market Equilibrium with Division of Labor
JEL codes: C73; D23; D40
Presented by: Haiou Zhou, Monash University
Resources, Revolution and Repression:A Theoretical Perspective
Presented by: Yiyong CAI, Australian National University
Optimal Irrational Behavior
Presented by: Emin Gahramanov, Deakin University

Session 4: Population Dynamics
Session Chair: Steve Dowrick, Australian National University
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: MCC6
Productive Consumption and Population Dynamics in an Endogenous Growth Model: The Demographic Trend and Human Development Aid in Developing Economies
JEL codes: J11,O11,O41
Presented by: Ichiroh Daitoh, Tohoku University
Sustainable Yields in Fisheries: Uncertainty, Risk-Aversion and Mean-Variance Analysis
Presented by: Christian-Oliver Ewald, University of St.Andrews
Fertility, Education and Public Policy
Presented by: Creina Day, The University of Sydney

Session 5: Labour Economics
Session Chair: Garry Barrett, University of N S W
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: ALT1
A Life-Cycle Model of Entrepreneurial Choice: Understanding Entry into and Exit from Self-Employment
JEL codes: J21, J24, L26
Presented by: Takanori Adachi, Tokyo Institute of Technology
The Effect of Child Care Centre Openings on Child Care Arrangements and Maternal Labour Supply
Presented by: Chikako Yamauchi, Australian National University
The Effect of Ethnic Residential Segregation on Wages of Migrant Workers in Australia
Presented by: Mathias Sinning, ANU

Session 6: Invited Session - Advances in Econometrics
Session Chair: Juergen Meinecke, Australian National University
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: MCC2
Impact of Prescription Drug Coverage on Drug Expenditure of the Elderly - Evidence from a Two-Part Model with Endogeneity
Presented by: Pravin Trivedi, Indiana University
Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model
Presented by: AMAN ULLAH, UNIV OF CALIFORNIA

Session 7: Invited Session - Risk and Information
Session Chair: Maria Racionero, The Australian National University
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: MCC3
Dynamic contracting in banking and other hazardous industries
Presented by: Jean Charles Rochet,
Sharing Information in Web Communities
Presented by: Gabrielle Demange, EHESS

Session 8: International Business Cycles
Session Chair: Keisuke Otsu, Sophia University
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC4
Habit Persistence and International Co-movements
[slides]
JEL codes: E32, F41, G15
Presented by: Alexandre Dmitriev, University of New South Wales
Redistributive Policies and TFP Differences Across Countries
Presented by: Xueli Tang, Deakin University
International business cycle accounting: the case of Japan and the US 1980-2008
Presented by: Keisuke Otsu, Sophia University
TRADE SPECIALISATION AND ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE: EVIDENCE FROM TWO EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Presented by: Christophe Rault, University of Orléans

Session 9: Auctions and Mechanism Design
Session Chair: Ronald Stauber, Australian National University
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC3
Target Revenue Auctions
JEL codes: D44
Presented by: Hadi Yektas, The University of Melbourne
Procurement Auctions
Presented by: Vlad Mares, Northwestern University
Mechanism Design under Hidden Information by Risk-Averse Principals
Presented by: Suren Basov, La Trobe University
Multitasking, multidimensional screening, and moral hazard with risk neutral agents
Presented by: Svetlana Danilkina, La Trobe University

Session 10: The Environment and Climate Change
Session Chair: Warwick McKibbin, Australian National University
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: ATR1
Environmental Labeling and International Trade
JEL codes: F18
Presented by: Andrea Podhorsky, York University
Strategic environmental policy under free trade with transboundary pollution
Presented by: Shiva Sikdar, National University of Singapore
The Interaction of Global Warming Induced Water-Cycle Changes and Industrial Production – A Scenario Analysis for the Upper Danube River Basin
Presented by: Christoph Jessberger, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
The Relationship between CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: the case of Korea with non-linear evidence
Presented by: kihoon lee, Chungnam National University

Session 11: Productivity and Prices
Session Chair: Bill Griffiths, University of Melbourne
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: ALT1
EVALUATING THE DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF PRICE MOVEMENTS: METHODOLOGY, APPLICATION AND AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE
[slides]
JEL codes: C13, D12, D31,
Presented by: Rebecca Valenzuela, Monash University
Determinants of Firm Profitability - The Effect of Productivity and its Persistence
[slides]
Presented by: Andreas Stierwald, University of Melbourne
Decomposing the Price Effects on the Cost of Living for Australian Households
Presented by: Paul Blacklow, University of Tasmania
Public Infrastructure and Productivity in U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Price Augmenting AIM Cost Function
Presented by: Guohua Feng, Monash University
Moderating factors of immediate, dynamic, and long-run cross-price effects
Presented by: Csilla Horváth, Radboud University, Nijmegen

Session 12: Microeconometrics - Modeling and Testing
Session Chair: Andrey L. Vasnev, University of Sydney
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: ALT2
Copula-based Structural Limited Dependent Variable Models: Application to the Effect of Female Labor Force Participation on Fertility
[slides]
JEL codes: C34, C35, J13
Presented by: Shigeki Kano, Osaka Prefecture University
Nonparametric Diagnostic Test for Cross-Sectional Independence in Nonlinear Panel Data Models
Presented by: Jiti GAO, The University of Adelaide
Satiation, Escaping Satiation, and Structural Change: Some Evidence from the Evolution of Engel Curves
Presented by: Alessio Moneta, Max Planck Institute of Economics
Bayesian Estimation of Bandwidth and Parameters for the Semi-parametric Single Index Binary Response Model
Presented by: Xibin Zhang, public

Session 13: Empirical International Finance
Session Chair: Renee Fry, Australian National University
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC5
Equity market integration in the Asia Pacific region: Evidence from discount factors
Presented by: Edda Claus, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?
Presented by: Garima Vasishtha, Bank of Canada
An Empirical Examination of Heterogeneity and Switching in Foreign Exchange Markets
Presented by: David Goldbaum, University of Technology Sydney
Inter-regional volatility spillovers between emerging capital markets: evidence from Turkey and Brazil
Presented by: abdullah yalama, eskisehir osmangazi university

Session 14: Realized Volatilty
Session Chair: Mardi Dungey, University of Tasmania
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC2
Activity Signature Functions for High Frequency Data Analysis
[slides]
JEL codes: C1, C15
Presented by: George Tauchen,
Does Decomposing Realized Volatility Help in Risk Measure Prediction: Evidence from Chinese Mainland Stock Market
[slides]
Presented by: Yin Liao, Australian National University
Modeling and Predicting Volatility and its Risk Premium: a Bayesian Non-Gaussian State Space Approach
Presented by: Catherine Forbes, Monash University

Session 15: Forecasting 1
Session Chair: Farshid Vahid, Australian National University (ANU)
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC6
Inflation Volatility and and Forecast Accuracy
JEL codes: C53,E37
Presented by: Jarkko Jaaskela, Reserve Bank of Australia
Weighted-Covariance Factor Decomposition of VARMA Models Applied to Forecasting U.S. GDP at Monthly Intervals
Presented by: Peter Zadrozny, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Dispersion of Beliefs, Stock Prices and the Earnings Surprise Measures-a Generalized Approach
Presented by: Leon Zolotoy, Melbourne Business School
Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World
Presented by: Richard Paap, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Session 16: Marschak Lecture - Panel Data Discrete Choice Models (Bo Honore)
Session Chair: Steve Dowrick, Australian National University
Date: July 8, 2009
Time: 16:00 - 17:30
Location: MCC2
On the identification and estimation of panel data dynamic discrete choice models
[slides]
Presented by: Bo Honore, Princeton University

Session 17: E. J. Hannan Lecture - Volatility Estimation with High-Frequency Data: Three Approaches and Three Horizons (Eric Renault)
Session Chair: Mardi Dungey, University of Tasmania
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 9:00 - 10:30
Location: MCC2
Volatility Estimation with High-Frequency Data: Three Approaches and Three Horizons
[slides]
Presented by: Eric Renault, University of North Carolina

Session 18: Macroeconometrics and Monetary Policy
Session Chair: Konstantinos Theodoridis, Bank of England
Session JEL code: E32; F42;
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: MCC4
DSGE model restrictions for structural VAR identification
JEL codes: C11, C13, C32,
Presented by: Konstantinos Theodoridis, Bank of England
Measuring Similarity of Business Cycles in the Euro Area and the U.S.
Presented by: Jan Jacobs, University of Groningen
Liquidation, Asset Prices and the Recycling Channel of Bank Lending
[slides]
Presented by: Eddie Cheung, Australian National University

Session 19: Growth Empirics
Session Chair: Prasad Bhattacharya, Deakin University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: MCC6
SECOND GENERATION INNOVATION-BASED GROWTH MODELS AND THE BRITISH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
JEL codes: N13; O30; O40
Presented by: Rajabrata Banerjee, Monash University
A Three-Sector Model of Structural Transformation and Economic Development
Presented by: El-hadj Bah, The University of Auckland
HOW DO LEGAL SYSTEMS AFFECT LAND DISTRIBUTION?: A LONG-RUN DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS
Presented by: Prasad Bhattacharya, Deakin University

Session 20: Vertical and Horizontal Relations
Session Chair: David Prentice, La Trobe University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: MCC5
Strategic Investment and Bypass under Access Price Regulation
JEL codes: L22, L43, L51
Presented by: Keizo Mizuno, Kwansei Gakuin University
Vertical Relations: Complexity, Supply Chain Structure and Learning
Presented by: PEDRO BRETAN, FUNDAÇAO GETULIO VARGAS
An Empirical Analysis of a Merger in the Australian Cigarette Industry
Presented by: David Prentice, La Trobe University

Session 21: Economic Policy
Session Chair: Jan van Ours, Tilburg University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: ALT1
Cultural Transmission of Work-Welfare Attitudes and the Intergenerational Correlation in Welfare Receipt
JEL codes: I38, H31, Z1
Presented by: Deborah Cobb-Clark, The Australian National University
Are jurisdictions with the median voter and median
Presented by: Raghbendra Jha, Australian National University
Choosing To Compete: How Di¤erent are Girls and Boys?
Presented by: Alison Booth, Australian National University

Session 22: Limited Dependent Variable Times Series
Session Chair: Andrew Weiss, Australian National University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: ALT2
Optimal Probabilistic Forecasts for Counts
JEL codes: C14, C22, C53
Presented by: Gael Martin, Monash University
The Dominance Evaluation Methodology for Comparative Forecast Evaluation: Which Forecast Can Jump Over the Benchmark?
Presented by: Worapree Maneesoonthorn, Monash University
Testing an Autoregressive Structure in Binary Time Series Models
Presented by: Henri Nyberg, University of Helsinki

Session 23: Monetary Policy
Session Chair: Peter Stemp, Monash University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: ATR1
Optimal Interest Rate Rules under One-Sided Output and Inflation Targets
JEL codes: C61; E43; E58.
Presented by: Peter Stemp, Monash University
Relationship Lending and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Presented by: Kinda Hachem, University of Toronto
Optimal Monetary Policy in a Multi-Sector Small Open Economy Model: Which Conventional Wisdom?
Presented by: Carlos de Resende Junior, Bank of Canada

Session 24: Invited Session - Advances in Game Theory
Session Chair: Simon Grant, Rice University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: MCC3
A Foundation for Markov Equilibria
Presented by: George Mailath, University of Pennsylvania
Games with Unawareness
Presented by: Yossi Feinberg, Stanford University

Session 25: International Finance
Session Chair: Michael Binder,
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC2
Trade costs and deviations from the law of one price
JEL codes: F41, C22, D40
Presented by: Jorge Batista, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
COINTEGRATION AND ASYMMETRIC ADJUSTMENT: SOME NEW EVIDENCE CONCERNING THE BEHAVIOUR OF THE US CURRENT ACCOUNT
Presented by: Mark Holmes, Waikato University
Global Rebalancing in a Three-Country Model
Presented by: Philipp Engler, Freie Universität Berlin
International Investment Positions and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Dynamic Panel Analysis
Presented by: Michael Binder,

Session 26: Competitive Equilibrium
Session Chair: Jose Rodrigues-Neto, Australian National University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC6
Implications of Rationality in Asset Markets
JEL codes: d50,d52,d53
Presented by: Tarek Coury, Dubai School of Government
Competitive Equilibrium with Restricted Participation: the Case of Circular Trade
Presented by: Jose Rodrigues-Neto, Australian National University
Decentralized Price Adjustment in 2x2 Replica Economies
Presented by: Maxwell Pak, Queen's University
Lattices and Lotteries
[slides]
Presented by: Elena Antoniadou, ANU

Session 27: Wage Determinants and Wage Gaps
Session Chair: Deborah Cobb-Clark, The Australian National University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: ALT1
Perceptions and Labor Market Outcomes of Immigrants in Australia after 9/11
JEL codes: J15, J71
Presented by: Deepti Goel, IFMR, India
Market and Home Production: Gender Differences
Presented by: Regina Madalozzo, Ibmec São Paulo
Nonparametric Bounds on Returns to Education in South Africa
Presented by: Martine Mariotti, Australian National University
The Return to Cognitive Skills in the Australian Labour Market
Presented by: Garry Barrett, University of N S W

Session 28: Econometrics - Estimation
Session Chair: Jiti GAO, The University of Adelaide
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: AT2
Sensitivity of GLS Estimators in Random Effects Models
JEL codes: C33; C52
Presented by: Andrey L. Vasnev, University of Sydney
Bayesian Analysis of A Model with Binary Selectivity and Ordered Outcomes
[slides]
Presented by: Rong Zhang, Monash University
Estimating the Gravity Model When Zero Trade Flows Are Frequent
Presented by: Cong Pham, Deakin University
Threshold Regression Without Distribution Assumption when the Threshold Variable Is Endogenous
Presented by: Chang-Ching Lin, Academia Sinica

Session 29: Applications of Cointegration
Session Chair: Edda Claus, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: ATR3
Cointegration and conditional correlations among German and Eastern Europe equity markets
JEL codes: C22, C53, G15,
Presented by: Rakesh Gupta, CQ University
Dynamic price dependence of Canadian and world art markets: An empirical analysis
[slides]
Presented by: Douglas Hodgson, University of Quebec at Montreal
Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Cointegration Approach for Commodity Currencies
[slides]
Presented by: Waranya Pim Chanthapun, Australian National University
The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area
Presented by: Carlos Marques, Banco de Portugal

Session 30: Issues in Empirical Finance
Session Chair: Jing Tian, University of Tasmania
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC5
Was the US Lucky? The Distribution of Equity Premia
[slides]
JEL codes: G10, G12, G15
Presented by: Matthew Pollard, The Australian National University
Testing Conditional Factor Models
Presented by: Dennis Kristensen, Columbia University
Can Bounded Rationality Be Identified in the Australian Stock Market?
[slides]
Presented by: Roberta Powell-Long, University of Queensland
Testing for exceptional bulls and bears: a non-parametric perspective
[slides]
Presented by: Norbert Metiu, Maastricht University

Session 31: R&D, Licensing, and Contests
Session Chair: Tina Kao, Australian National University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC3
R&D productivity and intellectual property rights protection regimes
JEL codes: O34, L13, F13
Presented by: Joanna Poyago-Theotoky, University of Loughborough
The impact of university licensing behaviour on scientist disclosure
Presented by: Rosemary Humberstone, University of Melbourne
The Momentum Effect in Competitions: Field Evidence from Tennis Matches
Presented by: Lionel Page, University of Westminster
Markets for Influence
Presented by: John Quiggin, University of Queensland

Session 32: Duration Modelling of High Freqency Data
Session Chair: John Randal, Victoria University of Wellington
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 13:30 - 15:30
Location: MCC4
A Semiparametric Approach to a Nonlinear Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model
JEL codes: C630
Presented by: Pipat Wongsaart, The University of Adelaide
Yet Another Autoregressive Duration Model: The ACDD Model
Presented by: Nagaratnam Jeyasreedharan, University of Tasmania
Assessing performances of density forecasts in duration models
Presented by: Kulan Ranasinghe Arachchige, Monash University
From Trade to Trade in US Treasuries: Durations, Workups and News Effects
Presented by: Mardi Dungey, University of Tasmania

Session 33: A. W. Phillips Lecture - Limits to Innovation (Andrew Atkeson)
Session Chair: Warwick McKibbin, Australian National University
Date: July 9, 2009
Time: 16:00 - 17:30
Location: MCC2
The Limits to Innovation
[slides]
Presented by: Andrew Atkeson, University of California

Session 34: Matching and Family Economics
Session Chair: Dirk Bethmann, Queensland University of Technology
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 8:45 - 10:15
Location: MCC6
Your conscience you must keep, or it must be kept for you
JEL codes: C72, J16, Z13
Presented by: Birendra Rai, Monash University
The Mystery of polygamy
Presented by: Dirk Bethmann, Queensland University of Technology
Equilibria in a model with a search labour market and a matching marriage market.
Presented by: Roberto Bonilla, Newcastle University

Session 35: Law & Economics and Public Goods
Session Chair: Jose Rodrigues-Neto, Australian National University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 8:45 - 10:15
Location: MCC4
Threshold uncertainty in the private-information subscription game
JEL codes: H41, D61, D82
Presented by: DAVID MALUEG, University of California Riverside
Unemployment and Crime
Presented by: Kangoh Lee, San Diego State University
Collusion in the Champagne Fairs : Controlling Law Merchants
[slides]
Presented by: Brishti Guha, Singapore Management University

Session 36: Development
Session Chair: Martine Mariotti, Australian National University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 8:45 - 10:15
Location: ALT2
Low Malnutrition but High Mortality: Explaining the Paradox of the Lake Victoria Region
JEL codes: I10, I30, O12,R
Presented by: Jan Priebe, University of Goettingen
Givers and Receivers: Inter Vivos Transfers in the Case of Migrants to Australia
Presented by: Aaron Nicholas, Monash Uni
Medium and Long-term Participation in Microfinance: An Evaluation Using a Large Panel Data Set from Bangladesh
Presented by: Asadul Islam, Monash University

Session 37: Employment and Unemployment
Session Chair: Alison Booth, Australian National University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 8:45 - 10:15
Location: ALT1
Are Contingent Jobs Dead Ends or Stepping Stones to Regular Jobs? Evidence from a Structural Estimation
JEL codes: I30, J21, J63,
Presented by: Ryuichi Tanaka, Tokyo Institute of Technology
Learning about Job Matches in a Structural Dynamic Model
Presented by: Juergen Meinecke, Australian National University
Why is there a spike in the job finding rate at benefit exhaustion?
Presented by: Jan van Ours, Tilburg University

Session 38: Learning and Experiments
Session Chair: Randy Silvers, Deakin University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 8:45 - 10:15
Location: MCC5
A learning theory of referrals
JEL codes: C73, I11, L11
Presented by: Damien Eldridge, La Trobe University
Verifiability in Experimental Markets for Credence Goods
Presented by: Uwe Dulleck, QUT
The Value of Information in a Principal-Agent Model with Moral Hazard and Ex Ante Contracting
Presented by: Randy Silvers, Deakin University

Session 39: Invited Session to Commemorate Clive Granger
Session Chair: Heather Anderson, Australian National University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 8:45 - 10:15
Location: MCC2
Quadratic scoring rules and density forecast histograms
Presented by: Kenneth Wallis, University of Warwick
Weak and Strong Cross Section Dependence and Estimation of Large Panels
[slides]
Presented by: M Hashem Pesaran, Cambridge University

Session 40: Economic Dynamics
Session Chair: Junichi Fujimoto, University of Tokyo
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 10:30 - 12:00
Location: MCC4
The Value of Uncertainty Under Limited Commitment
JEL codes: E21;D86;F34
Presented by: Junichi Fujimoto, University of Tokyo
A closed-form solution for the continuous-time consumption model with endogenous labor income
Presented by: Aihua Zhang, Nottingham University Business School
Tax, credit constraints, and the big costs of small inflation
Presented by: Andrew Coleman, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Session 41: Bargaining
Session Chair: Joshua Gans, University of Melbourne
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 10:30 - 12:00
Location: MCC3
A Matter of Interpretation: Bargaining over Ambiguous Contracts
JEL codes: D80, D82
Presented by: Simon Grant, Rice University
Bilateral Bargaining with Externalities
Presented by: Joshua Gans, University of Melbourne
The dynamics of bargaining postures: the role of a third party
Presented by: Jihong Lee, Birkbeck College, University of London

Session 42: Political Economy and Economic Growth
Session Chair: Debdulal Mallick, Deakin University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 10:30 - 12:00
Location: MCC6
Romes Without Empires: Urban Concentration, Political Competition, and Economic Growth
Presented by: Mehmet Ulubasoglu, Deakin University
The Architecture of Growth: Product Space, Small World Networks and Growth Acceleration
Presented by: Raja Kali, University of Arkansas
Financial Development, Shocks, and Growth Volatility
Presented by: Debdulal Mallick, Deakin University

Session 43: Poverty and Inequality
Session Chair: Raghbendra Jha, Australian National University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 10:30 - 12:00
Location: ALT1
BIVARIATE INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS FOR ASSESSING INEQUALITY AND POVERTY UNDER DEPENDENT SAMPLES
Presented by: Bill Griffiths, University of Melbourne
Interrelated Dynamics of Health and Poverty in Australia
Presented by: Lixin Cai, The University of Melbourne
Inequality Aversion and Performance in and on the Field
Presented by: Markus Schaffner, QUT

Session 44: Econometrics - tests
Session Chair: rachida Ouysse, Australian School of Business
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 10:30 - 12:00
Location: ALT2
A New Procedure for Multiple One-Sided Hypothesis Testing
JEL codes: C01, C12, C14
Presented by: Maxwell King, Monash University
Some Properties of Tests for Parameters That Can Be Arbitrarily Close to Being Unidentified
Presented by: Giovanni Forchini, Monash University
Simple tests for the null of no cointegration with structural breaks
Presented by: Pui Sun Tam, University of Macau

Session 45: Product Differentiation
Session Chair: Guillaume Roger, The University of New South wales
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 10:30 - 12:00
Location: MCC5
Quality Versus Quantity in Vertically Differentiated Products under Non-Linear Pricing
JEL codes: L11
Presented by: Hugh Sibly, University of Tasmania
Product Variety, Price Elasticity of Demand and Fixed Cost in Spatial Models
Presented by: Yiquan Gu, University of Dortmund (TU) and RGS Econ
Differentiation as innovation and the impact of competition
Presented by: Guillaume Roger, The University of New South wales

Session 46: Invited Session - International Economics
Session Chair: Bruce Preston, Columbia University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 10:30 - 12:00
Location: MCC2
Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations
Presented by: Denise Osborn, University of Manchester
Two Hundred years of Financial Integration: Latin America since Independence
[slides]
Presented by: Graciela Kaminsky,

Session 47: Forecasting 2
Session Chair: Param Silvapulle, Monash University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 13:00 - 15:00
Location: MCC4
Forecasting the unemployment rate when the forecast loss function is asymmetric
JEL codes: C13, C52, C53
Presented by: Jing Tian, University of Tasmania
National Forecasting with Large International Datasets – an Application to New Zealand
Presented by: Sandra Eickmeier, Deutsche Bundesbank
Variable Selection in a Dynamic Factor Model
Presented by: pu chen, university bielefeld
Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions
Presented by: Farshid Vahid, Australian National University (ANU)

Session 48: Political Economy
Session Chair: Simon Loertscher, University of Melbourne
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 13:00 - 15:00
Location: MCC2
Searching for Good Policies
Presented by: Steven Callander, Northwestern University
Information Transmission in Electoral Competition
Presented by: Simon Loertscher, University of Melbourne
Elections and the Strategic Use of Budget Deficits
Presented by: Roland Hodler, University of Melbourne
Reputations and Economic Performances in Dictatorships
Presented by: Chee Kian Leong, SIM University

Session 49: International Trade Theory
Session Chair: Martin Richardson, Australian National University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 13:00 - 15:00
Location: ALT2
Trade, Migration and Inequality in a World without Factor Price Equalisation
JEL codes: F11, F16
Presented by: Paul Oslington, Australian Catholic University
FDI, Technology Spillover, and Vertical Product Differentiation
[slides]
Presented by: Xuan T Nguyen, UNSW
Free entry and social efficiency in an open economy
Presented by: Jonathan Lim, University of New South Wales
Explaining Industrial Localization and Countries' Specialization in the European Union: An Empirical Investigation
Presented by: Astrid Krenz, University of Goettingen

Session 50: Children's Outcomes, Retirement and Governance
Session Chair: TUE GORGENS, Australian National University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 13:00 - 15:00
Location: ALT1
Re-examining the Relationship between Income and Child Health on Both Sides of the Atlantic
JEL codes: I10, I18, C25
Presented by: Brett Inder, Monash University
Do achievement labels affect the well-being of children? Evidence from discontinuities in test scores
Presented by: Marcello Sartarelli, European University Institute
Principals vs. Principles: What Do Managers Do When Governance Is Slack?
Presented by: Ralf Steinhauser, Australian National University
Retirement investor risk tolerance when risk is range: experimental survey evidence from tranquil and crisis periods.
Presented by: Susan Thorp, University of Technology, Sydney

Session 51: Computational Tools and Applications
Session Chair: Giovanni Forchini, Monash University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 13:00 - 15:00
Location: ATR1
Timber Cycles
JEL codes: C6,D9,L73,Q23
Presented by: Harry Paarsch, University of Melbourne
Equity-Linked Pension Schemes with Guarantees
Presented by: Klaus Sandmann, University of Bonn
Fast Iterated Bootstrap Mean Bias Correction
Presented by: rachida Ouysse, Australian School of Business
Edgeworth and Saddlepoint Approximations for Nonlinear Estimators
Presented by: Gubhinder Kundhi, Carleton University

Session 52: Financial Bubbles
Session Chair: Catherine Forbes, Monash University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 13:00 - 15:00
Location: MCC6
Herd Behavior by Japanese Banks in Local Financial Markets
[slides]
JEL codes: G21; E44; R51
Presented by: RYUICHI NAKAGAWA, KANSAI UNIVERSITY
Finding the invisible hand: an objective model of financial markets
Presented by: Doug McLeod, RedSky Systems Corporation
Bubbles or volatilities: a Markov-switching unit root test with regime-varying error variances
Presented by: ShuPing Shi, ANU
Overvaluation in Australian Housing and Equity Markets: Wealth Effects or Monetary Policy?
Presented by: Renee Fry, Australian National University

Session 53: Estimation When Distributions are Heavy Tailed
Session Chair: Gael Martin, Monash University
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 13:00 - 15:00
Location: MCC3
Fitting jump diffusion processes using the EM algorithm
JEL codes: C22, C13
Presented by: John Randal, Victoria University of Wellington
Stochastic Volatility and Jumps: Exponentially Affine Yes or No? An Empirical Analysis of S&P500 Dynamics
Presented by: Katja Ignatieva, Goethe University Frankfurt
Conditional Extreme Value Theory and Time Varying Copulas: Diversification Evidence from International Equity Markets
[slides]
Presented by: Cuong Nguyen, La Trobe University
Estimation of confidence intervals for the mean of heavy tailed loss distributions: a comparative study using a simulation method
[slides]
Presented by: Ainura Tursunalieva, Monash University

Session 54: Aggregate Fluctuations
Session Chair: Sinchan Mitra, University of Queensland
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 13:00 - 15:00
Location: MCC5
Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries
[slides]
JEL codes: E20; H11; O57
Presented by: Jonathan Ostry, International Monetary Fund
Measuring the Effects of Malaysian Monetary Policy: VARMA vs VAR Models
Presented by: Mala Raghavan, Monash University
Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach
Presented by: Sinchan Mitra, University of Queensland

This program was last updated on 2009-07-20 3:48:19 EDT

Session 55: Colin Clark Lecture - Resource Allocation without Prices (Larry Samuelson)
Session Chair: George Mailath, University of Pennsylvania
Date: July 10, 2009
Time: 15:15 - 16:45
Location: MCC2
Resource Allocation without Prices
[slides]
Presented by: Larry Samuelson,