The 2026 RCEA International Conference on Economics, Econometrics, and Finance

Madrid, Spain

 

Program Notes and Index of Sessions

 

Summary of All Sessions

Click here for an index of all participants

#Date/TimeTitle/LocationPapers
1May 25, 2026
8:00-8:45
REGISTRATION0
2May 25, 2026
8:45-9:00
WELCOME REMARKS0
3May 25, 2026
9:00-10:00
KEYNOTE SESSION 1: Philipe Aghion (Collège de France and London School of Economics). Chair: 0
4May 25, 2026
10:00-10:30
COFFE BREAK0
5May 25, 2026
10:30-12:30
CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 15
6May 25, 2026
10:30-12:30
CRIPTO AND MONEY MARKETS5
7May 25, 2026
10:30-12:30
EQUITY MARKETS AND PREDICTION5
8May 25, 2026
10:30-12:30
FAMILY AND POPULATION ECONOMICS5
9May 25, 2026
10:30-12:30
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS5
10May 25, 2026
10:30-12:30
MACRO-FINANCIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE5
11May 25, 2026
10:30-12:30
MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS AND PROPAGATION5
12May 25, 2026
10:30-12:30
MONETARY POLICY 15
13May 25, 2026
10:30-12:30
TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 1 - Factor Models and Quantile Regressions - Chair: Esther Ruiz (Universidad Carlos III Madrid) 5
14May 25, 2026
12:30-14:00
LUNCH0
15May 25, 2026
14:00-16:15
BREAKS, OUTLIERS, AND FORECASTING6
16May 25, 2026
14:00-16:00
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT5
17May 25, 2026
14:00-16:00
CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 25
18May 25, 2026
14:00-16:00
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE AND REGULATION5
19May 25, 2026
14:00-16:00
FISCAL POLICY 15
20May 25, 2026
14:00-16:15
LABOR ECONOMICS LABOR ECONOMICS6
21May 25, 2026
14:00-16:00
MONETARY POLICY 25
22May 25, 2026
14:00-16:00
PRODUCTIVITY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE5
23May 25, 2026
14:00-16:00
TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 2 - Macroeconomic Time series - Chair: Gianni Amisano (Federal Reserve Board)5
24May 25, 2026
16:00-16:30
COFFEE BREAK0
25May 25, 2026
16:30-17:30
KEYNOTE SESSION 2: Large factor models 26 years Later: What have we learned? - Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School). Chair: 0
26May 25, 2026
17:30-18:30
KEYNOTE SESSION 3: Alicia Garcia Herrero (Natixis & HKUST). Chair0
27May 25, 2026
18:30-20:00
WELCOME RECEPTION0
28May 26, 2026
8:00-9:00
REGISTRATION0
29May 26, 2026
9:00-10:00
KEYNOTE SESSION 4: Non-Gaussian Factor Models, Christian Matthes (University of Notre Dame) - Chair: 0
30May 26, 2026
10:00-10:30
COFFEE BREAK0
31May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
ASSET PRICING5
32May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 1: Advances in Bayesian Modeling & Machine Learning5
33May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 35
34May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
CLIMATE ECONOMETRICS5
35May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
ECONOMETRIC METHODS AND APPLICATIONS5
36May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
GREEN TRANSITION AND SUPPLY CHAINS5
37May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS 15
38May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
MONETARY POLICY 35
39May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
POLITICAL ECONOMY5
40May 26, 2026
10:30-12:30
TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 3 - Filtering and Prediction - Chair: Daniel Gutknecht (Goethe University of Frankfurt)5
41May 26, 2026
12:30-14:00
LUNCH0
42May 26, 2026
14:00-15:00
KEYNOTE SESSION 5: Out-of-Sample Predictability Tests with Real-Time Data, Silvia Goncalves (McGill University) - Chair: Alessandra Luati (Imperial College London & University of Bologna)0
43May 26, 2026
15:00-16:00
KEYNOTE SESSION 6: Instrumental Variable Estimation via a Continuum of Instrument - Carlos Velasco (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) - Chair: Ioannis Kasparis (University of Cyprus)0
44May 26, 2026
16:00-16:30
COFFEE BREAK0
45May 26, 2026
16:30-18:30
BANKING STABILITY5
46May 26, 2026
16:30-18:30
BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 2: Macroeconomic Policy & Structural Shocks5
47May 26, 2026
16:30-18:30
CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 45
48May 26, 2026
16:30-18:30
CLIMATE POLICY AND MACROFINANCIAL FLUCTUATIONS5
49May 26, 2026
16:30-18:30
COMMODITY SHOCKS AND THE MACROECONOMY5
50May 26, 2026
16:30-18:30
LABOR MARKET AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS5
51May 26, 2026
16:30-18:30
MACROECONOMETRICS5
52May 26, 2026
16:30-18:30
TECHNICAL CHANGE IN GREEN AND DIGITAL TRANSITION5
53May 26, 2026
16:30-18:30
TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 4 - Multivariate Models and Long Memory - Chair: Massimiliano Caporin (University of Padova)5
54May 26, 2026
20:00-23:00
GALA DINNER0
55May 27, 2026
8:00-9:00
REGISTRATION0
56May 27, 2026
9:00-10:00
KEYNOTE SESSION 7: The information Matrix Test for Gaussian Mixtures - Enrique Sentana (CEMFI). Chair: 0
57May 27, 2026
10:00-11:00
KEYNOTE SESSION 8: Decarbonization and Investments: A Path to a Green Economy - Eduardo Schwartz (Simon Fraser University)0
58May 27, 2026
11:00-11:30
COFFEE BREAK0
59May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 3: Volatility, Latent Factors & Financial Econometrics5
60May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 55
61May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 65
62May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND GREEN TRANSITION5
63May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS5
64May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
FISCAL POLICY 24
65May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND POLICIES5
66May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
HOUSING PRICES AND BOOMS5
67May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
INFLATION AND EXPECTATIONS4
68May 27, 2026
11:30-13:30
INTEREST RATES5
69May 27, 2026
13:30-14:30
LUNCH0
70May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 4: Prediction & Market Dynamics5
71May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 5: Advanced Identification and Shrinkage in Multivariate Time Series5
72May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 75
73May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
CONSUMPTION AND PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS5
74May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
CORPORATE DYNAMICS5
75May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
INDUSTRY AND FINANCIAL RISK5
76May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS 25
77May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS5
78May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS5
79May 27, 2026
14:30-16:30
NATURAL RESOURCE AND BRICS5
80May 27, 2026
16:30-17:00
COFFEE BREAK0
81May 27, 2026
17:00-18:00
KEYNOTE SESSION 9: Temperature Distributional Shocks: Identification and Macroeconomic Effects, Jesus Gonzalo (Universidad de Madrid Carlos III) - Chair:0
82May 27, 2026
18:00-18:15
END OF THE CONFERENCE0
 

82 sessions, 285 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers


 

The 2026 RCEA International Conference on Economics, Econometrics, and Finance

Detailed List of Sessions

 
Session 1: REGISTRATION
May 25, 2026 8:00 to 8:45
 
 
Session 2: WELCOME REMARKS
May 25, 2026 8:45 to 9:00
 
 
Session 3: KEYNOTE SESSION 1: Philipe Aghion (Collège de France and London School of Economics). Chair:
May 25, 2026 9:00 to 10:00
 
 
Session 4: COFFE BREAK
May 25, 2026 10:00 to 10:30
 
 
Session 5: CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 1
May 25, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Valuation of a Carbon Capture Plant: a real options approach
   Presented by: Isabel Figuerola Ferretti, ICADE
 

Market Stability, Political Intervention Risk, and the EU ETS: A Simplified Intertemporal Model
   Presented by: Iñaki Longarela, Stockholm University
 

Green investment, inequality and misallocation
   Presented by: Louis-Marie Harpedanne de Belleville, Paris School of Economics
 

Distributional Effects of Natural Disasters on Banking Sector -Evidence from U.S. Banks
   Presented by: CY Choi, The University of Texas at Arlington
 

Unpacking the Distributional Effects of the Energy Crisis: Lessons from the Iberian Electricity Market
   Presented by: Natalia Fabra, CEMFI
 
Session 6: CRIPTO AND MONEY MARKETS
May 25, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Income inequality and bank funding fragility
   Presented by: Anni Isojaervi, Federal Reserve Board
 

Convenience Has a Price - ATM Surcharges and Cash Demand
   Presented by: Krzysztof Wozniak, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
 

Excess Liquidity and the Yield Curve
   Presented by: Andreea Liliana Vladu, European Central Bank
 

Tests for No-Arbitrage in Cryptocurrency Markets
   Presented by: Razvan Sufana, York University
 

Crypto Listens: Asymmetric Reactions to Text-based Signals in Central Bank Communications
   Presented by: David Tercero-Lucas, ICADE, Comillas Pontifical University
 
Session 7: EQUITY MARKETS AND PREDICTION
May 25, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

The bright side of circuit breakers
   Presented by: Miguel Ventura Flores, Ca Foscari University
 

Nonparametric Directional Forecasting in Equity Markets: Size, Conditional Patterns, and Economic Payoffs
   Presented by: Andrei Semenov, York University
 

The Effect of AI Investment Announcements on Adopting Companies Abnormal Returns: A Critical Analysis of the UK Market
   Presented by: Zeynep Kurter, Warwick University
 

Virtue or Mirage? Complexity in Exchange Rate Prediction
   Presented by: Rehim Kilic, FRB
 

Stock markets and Terrorism Unrest in Africa
   Presented by: Guillermo Llorente-Alvarez, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid
 
Session 8: FAMILY AND POPULATION ECONOMICS
May 25, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Housing and Social Interactions
   Presented by: Mengying Song, University of Southampton
 

Immigration, Social Norms, Violent Crime and Electoral Outcomes Evidence from Chile 2015 - 2024
   Presented by: Alejandro Micco, University of Chile
 

How New Half-Siblings Affect Child Support and Parent-Child Contact - Evidence from German Taxpayer Data
   Presented by: Marianna Schaubert, Fraunhofer Institute
 

Dynamic Ethnosizing and Dynamic Identity
   Presented by: Fausto Galli, University of Salerno
 

School Smoking Bans and Substance Use Spillovers: Evidence from Peer Environments
   Presented by: Henrike Alm, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen
 
Session 9: INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS
May 25, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

How Subsidies Shape Innovation: The Dual Role of Quality and Market-Research in a Dynamic Real-Options Model
   Presented by: Diemo Dietrich, University of Greifswald
 

Strategic Uncertainty, Compeition, and Asymmetric Pass-Through: Evidence from Electricity Markets
   Presented by: Harim Kim, University of Connecticut
 

Family managers and investment decisions
   Presented by: Xulia González, University of Vigo
 

Advocating Devils
   Presented by: Xin Gao, University of Birmingham
 

Dynamic Crowdfunding: Theory and Evidence
   Presented by: Kaio Dias, Duke University
 
Session 10: MACRO-FINANCIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
May 25, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Extreme Weather in Europe: Determinants and Economic Impact
   Presented by: Claudio Morana, Università di Milano-Bicocca
 

Extreme climate and natural disaster risk in financial markets: A CoES approach
   Presented by: Laura Garcia-Jorcano, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
 

FROM DISASTERS TO VOLATILITY: EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS AND EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MARKETS
   Presented by: Alessandra Canepa, Turin University
 

Output Growth and Inflation at Risk of Climate Shocks
   Presented by: Andrey Ramos, Bank of Spain
 

Natural disasters and inflation crises in Europe
   Presented by: Amétépé Egbétoké, University of Picardie Jules Verne
 
Session 11: MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS AND PROPAGATION
May 25, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Identification or Propagation? Shock-Based Weak-IV Diagnostics and Bootstrap Inference for Instrumented VARs
   Presented by: Daniele Colombo, London Business School
 

Simulations on Local Projections Panel Data
   Presented by: Alfonso Ugarte-Ruiz, BBVA
 

Causality in Variance Beyond the First Horizon
   Presented by: Christina Christou, Open University of Cyprus
 

Measuring Salience in macroeconomic time series
   Presented by: Francesca Papagni, University of Bergamo
 

Scanning for Significance: False Discovery Control for Impulse Responses
   Presented by: Giorgi Nikolaishvili, Wake Forest University
 
Session 12: MONETARY POLICY 1
May 25, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Marginal Investors as a Guide for Monetary Policy: A Tale of Nominal and Real Risks
   Presented by: Anna Orlik, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
 

The US Monetary Policy Surprise: Taking Stock of the US Treasury Yield Curve
   Presented by: Audrey Soedjito, Brandeis University
 

The Heterogeneous Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy
   Presented by: Jorge Abad, Banco de España
 

Small Talks and the Predictability of Monetary Policy Surprises
   Presented by: David Gauthier, Banque de France
 

Temperature and the U.S. Economy: From Demand to Supply-Side Effects?
   Presented by: Marta Rodriguez, Bank of Spain
 
Session 13: TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 1 - Factor Models and Quantile Regressions - Chair: Esther Ruiz (Universidad Carlos III Madrid)
May 25, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

GLOBAL FACTORS FOR LOCAL SHOCKS IN A DATA-SCARCE ENVIRONMENT: WITH AN APPLICATION TO REGIONAL FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN ITALY
   Presented by: Marco Mazzali, Università di Bologna
 

Testing the null hypothesis of panel cointegration with common factors
   Presented by: Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, University of Barcelona
 

Mean Square Errors of factors extracted using principal components, linear projections, and Kalman filter
   Presented by: Esther Ruiz, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
 

HAR Inference for Quantile Regression in Time Series
   Presented by: Jungbin Hwang, University of Connecticut
 

Transport-based Estimation of Time-Varying Factor Models
   Presented by: Emilio Zanetti Chini, University of Bergamo
 
Session 14: LUNCH
May 25, 2026 12:30 to 14:00
 
 
Session 15: BREAKS, OUTLIERS, AND FORECASTING
May 25, 2026 14:00 to 16:15
 
 

Not All Groups Switch Together: A Two-Group Markov-Switching SUR Model
   Presented by: Martin Sola, Universidad Torcuato di Tella
 

How Should We Model Outliers in Nowcasting? Evidence from French GDP
   Presented by: Seokki Hong, Bank of England
 

From Many Models, One: Macroeconomic Forecasting with Reservoir Ensembles
   Presented by: Giovanni Ballarin, University of St. Gallen
 

Inference on Continuous Structural Change in Long-Run Equilibrium Dynamic Systems: A Local Projection Approach
   Presented by: Byeongseon Seo, Korea University
 

Systemic Influence in Structural Breaks: Granular Time Series Detection
   Presented by: So Jin Lee, CUNEF Universidad
 

Combining forecasts based on the evidence against equal predictive ability
   Presented by: Lukas Bauer, University of Freiburg
 
Session 16: CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
May 25, 2026 14:00 to 16:00
 
 

The role of Institutional Quality in the Developmental Impact of Digital Financial Inclusion in Africa
   Presented by: Ruth Okhah, Keele University
 

The Effect of Climate Risk on Agricultural Inputs Use of Western African Smallholders: A Panel Data Analysis through CRE–PPML
   Presented by: Marco Rogna, European Commission Joint Research Centre
 

Mobile phone adoption and deforestation in Peru: Evidence from spatial econometric models at the district and departmental levels
   Presented by: Luis Ledesma Goyzueta, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
 

Beyond Treaty Presence: Firm-Level Evidence of Tax Treaty Design and Investment in Developing Countries
   Presented by: Pranvera Shehaj, Freie Universität Berlin
 

Deforestation without Development? The Agricultural Resource
   Presented by: Kilian Kamkar, University of Cambridge
 
Session 17: CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2
May 25, 2026 14:00 to 16:00
 
 

Institutional Investor Impact across Asset Classes: Exit, Voice and/or Conditional (Re)Financing
   Presented by: Fabiola Schneider,
 

From FinTech to Clean Energy: Green Finance as a Mediator, Natural Resources as a Lever
   Presented by: Alexandre Croutzet, UQAM
 

Heterogeneous Firm Belief Updating to Climate News
   Presented by: NIKI DEMOSTHENOUS, University of Cyprus
 

Subsidies and Household Technology Adoption: Evidence from the Belgian Auto Market
   Presented by: Han Pham, University Of Luxembourg
 

Do users respond to congestion pricing? Evidence on demand elasticity from managed lanes
   Presented by: Natalia Collado Van-Baumberghen, Universidad Pontificia Comillas
 
Session 18: FINANCIAL LEVERAGE AND REGULATION
May 25, 2026 14:00 to 16:00
 
 

Leverage and Financial Distress: A Meta-Analysis of Empirical Evidence
   Presented by: Ayaz Zeynalov, Prague University of Economics and Business
 

Regulatory Divergence and Bank Capital Flows
   Presented by: Bryan Gutierrez, University of Minnesota
 

Robinhood’s Forced Liquidations
   Presented by: Pedro Garcia Ares, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México
 

Pricing Macro-Panic: Forecasting the Tails of Bond Risk Premia
   Presented by: Jiaxun Liu, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
 

The state-contingent effect of changes in bank capital requirements
   Presented by: Federico Puglisi, Bank of Italy
 
Session 19: FISCAL POLICY 1
May 25, 2026 14:00 to 16:00
 
 

Fiscal Shocks and Public Debt Dynamics in the European Union. New Evidence using Forecast-Error Identification
   Presented by: Karsten Staehr, Bank of Estonia; Tallinn University of Technology
 

Market discipline on fiscal policy: how banks’ sovereign debt holdings keep public debt in check
   Presented by: Peter Claeys, Universidad Pontificia Comillas
 

Anatomy of French Fiscal Policy
   Presented by: Moaz Elsayed, Banque de France
 

System-wide effects of sovereign bond market stress
   Presented by: Dennis Zander, University of Warwick/European Central Bank
 

The Insurance Value of Transfers across the Business Cycle
   Presented by: Andrea Fratini, Sapienza University of Rome
 
Session 20: LABOR ECONOMICS LABOR ECONOMICS
May 25, 2026 14:00 to 16:15
 
 

Follow the leader: The effect of high-quality peers on turnover decisions
   Presented by: Marlon Francisco, Nova School of Business and Economics
 

Striking While the Iron Is Hot vs Steady Does It: Cyclical Fluctuations in Hours Worked and Welfare
   Presented by: Christian Jensen, University of South Carolina
 

Beyond technical skills. Labour market returns to skills in tertiary vocational education using an LLM approach.
   Presented by: Federico Segato, Università Degli Studi di Bergamo
 

The costs of exclusion: Refugee camps and local labour markets
   Presented by: Ioannis Laliotis, University of Patras
 

Financial Constraints: Labor Adjustment and Short-Time Work
   Presented by: Kristina Saveska, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
 

Beyond GDP at the Local Level: Spatial Dynamics of Municipal Well-being in Italy
   Presented by: Chiara Colamartino, Università LUM
 
Session 21: MONETARY POLICY 2
May 25, 2026 14:00 to 16:00
 
 

The Role of Sovereign Wealth Funds in Shaping Monetary Policy Transmission
   Presented by: Nouf Bin Muqbel, University of Leeds
 

The Effects of a Money-financed Fiscal Stimulus Without Irredeemability of Money
   Presented by: Eiji Okano, Nagoya City University
 

Monetary Transmission to Firm-level R&D*
   Presented by: Ruslana Datsenko, Bank of England
 

Public sector interventions in the Bund market A repo market perspective
   Presented by: Miguel Ampudia, ECB
 

Sovereign Bond Market Fragmentation and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
   Presented by: Carl-Wolfram Horn, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
 
Session 22: PRODUCTIVITY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE
May 25, 2026 14:00 to 16:00
 
 

The demographic origins of premature deindustrialization
   Presented by: MARTA DOMINGUEZ JIMENEZ, CEMFI
 

Urbanization, Productivity Differences and Spatial Frictions
   Presented by: Calin Arcalean, ESADE Business School
 

Regional Productivity, Local Economic Capacity, and Health Trajectories among Older Adults in England
   Presented by: Daniele Patiti, King's college London
 

Private Equity, Institutions, and Productivity
   Presented by: Sara Boni, Technical University of Munich
 

Internal Migration Restrictions, Aggregate Productivity, and Spatial Growth
   Presented by: Tracy Xu, Georgetown University
 
Session 23: TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 2 - Macroeconomic Time series - Chair: Gianni Amisano (Federal Reserve Board)
May 25, 2026 14:00 to 16:00
 
 

Telltale Inflation Tails: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Disaggregated Prices
   Presented by: Andrea De Polis, Banco de España
 

Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya
   Presented by: Nikolay Danov, International Monetary Fund
 

Inference for Macroeconomic Policy Counterfactuals
   Presented by: Utso Pal Mustafi, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
 

Fixed-T Dynamic Spatial Panel Model with Common Shocks
   Presented by: Jesse Chen, Columbia University
 

The Long Run in Exchange Rates, UIP and Durbin Regressions
   Presented by: Richard Baillie, King's College & Michigan State University
 
Session 24: COFFEE BREAK
May 25, 2026 16:00 to 16:30
 
 
Session 25: KEYNOTE SESSION 2: Large factor models 26 years Later: What have we learned? - Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School). Chair:
May 25, 2026 16:30 to 17:30
 
 
Session 26: KEYNOTE SESSION 3: Alicia Garcia Herrero (Natixis & HKUST). Chair
May 25, 2026 17:30 to 18:30
 
 
Session 27: WELCOME RECEPTION
May 25, 2026 18:30 to 20:00
 
 
Session 28: REGISTRATION
May 26, 2026 8:00 to 9:00
 
 
Session 29: KEYNOTE SESSION 4: Non-Gaussian Factor Models, Christian Matthes (University of Notre Dame) - Chair:
May 26, 2026 9:00 to 10:00
 
 
Session 30: COFFEE BREAK
May 26, 2026 10:00 to 10:30
 
 
Session 31: ASSET PRICING
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

A No-Arbitrage Approach to Asset Pricing using Panel Data
   Presented by: João Issler, Getulio Vargas Foundation
 

Hedge Fund Investment: Optimal Portfolios with Regime-Switching
   Presented by: Alfonso Valdesogo, Universitat de les Illes Balears
 

State-Dependent Asset Pricing Models
   Presented by: Elisa Ossola, Università di Milano-Bicocca
 

Algorithms and Supracompetitive Prices in Electronic Markets: The Impact of Tick Size
   Presented by: Jose Penalva Zuasti, Universidad Carlos III
 

Factor Model Selection Using the ICAPM
   Presented by: Jeremias Huber, IFC/World Bank
 
Session 32: BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 1: Advances in Bayesian Modeling & Machine Learning
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

AR-LD-BART: Autoregressive latent variable models with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
   Presented by: Matteo Iacopini, Luiss University
 

Coarsened Bayesian VARs -- Correcting BVARs for Incorrect Specification
   Presented by: Tobias Scheckel, Salzburg University
 

Nonlinear Autoregressive Models for Functional Time Series with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
   Presented by: Eoghan O'Neill, University College Dublin
 

Learning Nonlinear Factor Models with Unknown Monotone Links from Incomplete and Noisy Data
   Presented by: Ali Habibnia, Virginia Tech
 

Follow the Flow: Nonlinear Identification of Structural Shocks via Normalizing Flows with Sign Restrictions
   Presented by: Carlos Montes-Galdon, European Central Bank
 
Session 33: CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 3
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

The green premium in the European stock market
   Presented by: Silvia MUZZIOLI, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
 

Supply Chain Disruptions: the Propagation and Economic Costs of ESG Shocks
   Presented by: Vicente Bermejo, ESADE Business School
 

The greenness of European Green Bonds
   Presented by: Paola Galfrascoli, University of Milano-Bicocca
 

Greener on the Other Side: Equilibrium Asset Prices in a Technological Transition
   Presented by: Fernando Zapatero, Boston University
 

Oil Firm Diversification Under Climate Risk: A Structural Model with Investment and Heterogeneity
   Presented by: Roderick McCrorie, University of St Andrews
 
Session 34: CLIMATE ECONOMETRICS
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Modeling Climate Heterogeneity via an Unconditional Quantile Vector Error Correction Approach
   Presented by: Maria Dolores Gadea, University of Zaragoza
 

Nonparametric Estimation and Testing of Nonlinear Temperature–Yield Relationships under Climate Change
   Presented by: Chaoyi Chen, Central Bank of Hungary
 

On the Carbon Footprint of Economic Surveys in the Age of Generative AI
   Presented by: Andres Alonso-Robisco, Banco de España
 

Threshold effects of CO₂ on Sea-Ice Volume: Empirical Evidence with Data from Global Circulation Models of the Arctic and Antarctic
   Presented by: Juan Rodríguez, OMIE
 

Modeling Long Memory in 67 Million Years of Cyclical Climate Trends: Anticipating Future Cycles
   Presented by: Alvaro Escribano, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
 
Session 35: ECONOMETRIC METHODS AND APPLICATIONS
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Unpleasant Thoughts on Using DiD in Economic Causal Inferences
   Presented by: Chang kon Choi, Chonbuk National University
 

Sampling Frequency and Parameter Information Under Temporal Aggregation in Continuous-Time Macroeconomic Models
   Presented by: Nikolay Iskrev, Bank of Portugal
 

Improved Estimation by Simulated Maximum Likelihood
   Presented by: Kirill Evdokimov, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
 

A Reappraisal of Volatility Bursts in Two-Factor Stochastic Volatility Models with Autoregressive Gamma Dynamics
   Presented by: Simon Feistle, University of St. Gallen
 

Likelihood and Order Selection for ARMA Dynamics in Panel Models with Interactive Effects
   Presented by: Pablo Mones, Columbia University
 
Session 36: GREEN TRANSITION AND SUPPLY CHAINS
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Measuring performance of investment strategies in ESG mutual funds. Evidence from fixed income flows to euro area.
   Presented by: Alberto Cagnazzo, LUISS University
 

Forecasting the Price of Carbon with Macroeconomic and Financial variables
   Presented by: Elisabetta Mirto, Study Center Gerzensee
 

Supply Chain Uncertainty: Pricing, Growth & Blockchains
   Presented by: Claudio Tebaldi, Universita' Commerciale L. Bocconi
 

MEASURING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PRESSURES USING BUSINESS SURVEYS
   Presented by: Nataliia Ostapenko, National Bank of Slovakia
 

Transition Dynamics in Heterogeneous-Agent Models and the Distributional Consequences of Taxation
   Presented by: Alexandra Gutsch,
 
Session 37: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS 1
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

International spillovers of fiscal news shocks
   Presented by: Grzegorz Wesołowski, University of Warsaw
 

More Data, Better Core Inflation? Evidence from CPI Disaggregation
   Presented by: Laure Simon, Bank of Canada
 

PPML Estimation of Structural Panel Gravity Models: Residual Analysis and Diagnostic Tests
   Presented by: Michael Pfaffermayr, University of Innsbruck
 

Absolute Advantage and Mutual Gains in Quantities
   Presented by: Ioannis Paraskevopoulos, ICADE, University Pontificia Comillas
 

A Structural Gravity Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism
   Presented by: Rafael Llorca-Vivero, Universidad de Valencia
 
Session 38: MONETARY POLICY 3
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Do firms adjust their employment plans in response to monetary policy announcements? Evidence from German survey data
   Presented by: Tim Kovalenko, Institute for Employment Research
 

Financial Constraints and Capital-Labor Substitution in Response to Monetary Policy
   Presented by: Hanna Onyshchenko, Bank of England
 

Why doesn’t Quantitative Easing work in the same way everywhere? Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic
   Presented by: Anna Carruthers, University of Oxford/Bank of England
 

Limits to Monetary Policy: When Central Banks Diverge
   Presented by: Sofia Sanchez Alegre, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
 

Interpreting the Interpreter: Can We Model Post-ECB Conference Volatility with LLM Agents?
   Presented by: Umberto Collodel, Central Bank of Malta
 
Session 39: POLITICAL ECONOMY
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Taxing the Peasant, Exempting the Lord
   Presented by: Frode Martin Nordvik, Kristiania University College
 

Does Inequality Undermine Redistribution? Evidence from Local School Finance
   Presented by: Ioana Schiopu, ESADE Business School
 

Hear Me Out Lobbying Frames and Policy
   Presented by: Edgar Jimenez Bedolla,
 

Forgiveness and crime dynamics: Empirical insights from the Catholic Great Jubilee of 2000 Event
   Presented by: Yulia Neleptchenko, University of Haifa
 

It Was Never About Scarcity, How Abundance Shaped Economics
   Presented by: Bernard Beaudreau, Université Laval
 
Session 40: TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 3 - Filtering and Prediction - Chair: Daniel Gutknecht (Goethe University of Frankfurt)
May 26, 2026 10:30 to 12:30
 
 

Two Gaussians, Too Many: A bootstrap-based approach to assess identifiability in non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions
   Presented by: Paritosh Junare, University of Bologna
 

A Statistical Dynamic Nonlinear Decomposition Model for the Environmental Kuznets Curve: a State-Space Approach
   Presented by: Carolina Garcia-Martos, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain
 

Generative Predictive Distributions for Time Series
   Presented by: Jordi Llorens-Terrazas, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
 

How to catch a star? Reliability of filtering estimates in linear state space systems
   Presented by: Giovanni Amisano, Federal Reserve Board
 

High-Dimensional Tests for Systemic Risk Measures
   Presented by: Daniel Gutknecht, Goethe University Frankfurt
 
Session 41: LUNCH
May 26, 2026 12:30 to 14:00
 
 
Session 42: KEYNOTE SESSION 5: Out-of-Sample Predictability Tests with Real-Time Data, Silvia Goncalves (McGill University) - Chair: Alessandra Luati (Imperial College London & University of Bologna)
May 26, 2026 14:00 to 15:00
 
 
Session 43: KEYNOTE SESSION 6: Instrumental Variable Estimation via a Continuum of Instrument - Carlos Velasco (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) - Chair: Ioannis Kasparis (University of Cyprus)
May 26, 2026 15:00 to 16:00
 
 
Session 44: COFFEE BREAK
May 26, 2026 16:00 to 16:30
 
 
Session 45: BANKING STABILITY
May 26, 2026 16:30 to 18:30
 
 

Failure in the Margins: Local Exposure to Non-local Bank Distress
   Presented by: Sam Deegan, University College Dublin
 

The Economics of Capital Buffer Usability
   Presented by: Deepali Gautam, IMF
 

Cyber Incidents, Banking Stability and the Value of Supervisory Strictness
   Presented by: Ludovico Rossi, CUNEF Universidad
 

When interest rate shock defies expectations: A precise methodology of stress testing for bond portfolios
   Presented by: Andrey Pankratov, Université Laval
 

Safe Distance to Systemic Risk
   Presented by: Renzhi LIU, University Paris Dauphine-PSL
 
Session 46: BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 2: Macroeconomic Policy & Structural Shocks
May 26, 2026 16:30 to 18:30
 
 

Global Sectoral Supply Shocks, Inflation, and Monetary Policy
   Presented by: Magali Marx, banque de france
 

The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission: A Structural Decomposition
   Presented by: Enrico Wegner, Maastricht University
 

Macroprudential Policy and Downside Risk: Regime-Dependent Effects of Capital Regulation
   Presented by: Katalin Julianna Varga, MNB
 

Liquidity Shocks and the Real Economy
   Presented by: Garo Garabedian, Central Bank of Ireland, Ghent University
 

The Macroeconomic Effects of Euro Area Macroprudential Policies: evidence from a narrative panel VAR
   Presented by: Gerhard Rünstler, European Central Bank
 
Session 47: CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 4
May 26, 2026 16:30 to 18:30
 
 

An iterative convergence procedure for electrification planning, regulation, and finance to achieve universal access
   Presented by: Santos Diaz Pastor, MIT Energy Initiative & Institute for Research in Technology
 

Dynamic Effects of Supply and Demand on Electricity Prices during the Global Energy Crisis: Evidence from Japan
   Presented by: Yohei Yamamoto, Hitotsubashi University
 

Carbon tax on CO2 emissions from oil extraction: The special case of Norway.
   Presented by: Gracia Rahi, Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, CERDI, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand
 

Carbon tax policies for the global economy
   Presented by: Miguel Casares, Universidad Publica de Navarra
 

ESG scores and the risk-adjusted performance of sustainable mutual funds: Worldwide divergence in seven key geographical areas
   Presented by: Natalia Cassinello, universidad pontificia comillas
 
Session 48: CLIMATE POLICY AND MACROFINANCIAL FLUCTUATIONS
May 26, 2026 16:30 to 18:30
 
 

Uncertain Climate Policy as a Source of Macro-Financial Shocks: Evidence from Carbon Futures Volatility
   Presented by: Serena Ionta, Bocconi University
 

Weather, Productivity and Work Reallocation: Evidence from UK Survey Interviewers
   Presented by: Paulo Morais, University of Essex
 

European climate policy in the dynamic setting: A Functional principal component analysis model using weekly EU ETS Data
   Presented by: Massimiliano Mazzanti, SEEDS e Università di Ferrara
 

Environmental Policy, Household Heterogeneity, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
   Presented by: Harun Nasir, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University
 

The Macroeconomics of the Low-Carbon Transition: AI News, Bank Constraints, and Conditional Green Finance
   Presented by: Laurentiu Guinea, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
 
Session 49: COMMODITY SHOCKS AND THE MACROECONOMY
May 26, 2026 16:30 to 18:30
 
 

Fracking the Union? Oil Shocks and the Rise of U.S. Political Polarization
   Presented by: Rubens Morita, University of Exeter
 

Look-Though or Look Closer? Energy Shocks and Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area
   Presented by: Rosi Chankova, Bank of England
 

The macroeconomics of energy shocks
   Presented by: Umer Ameen, Birkbeck, University of London
 

Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Price Uncertainty
   Presented by: Lorenzo Tonni, University of Milan
 

Quantifying Demand Shocks in the Green and Digital Transition
   Presented by: Marco Zoso, University of Milan-Bicocca and FEEM
 
Session 50: LABOR MARKET AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS
May 26, 2026 16:30 to 18:30
 
 

Estimating NAIRU for Subgroups of Civilian Population With Flexible Fourier Form
   Presented by: Jing Li, Miami University
 

The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds
   Presented by: Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
 

Welfare Analysis of Labor Market Policies in a HANK–SAM Framework
   Presented by: Danila Smirnov, International Monetary Fund
 

Labor Market Shortages and the Phillips Curve
   Presented by: Cristian Arcidiacono, University of Bern
 

Reduced labor market dynamism? Monetary Policy and the Ins and Outs of Firm Employment
   Presented by: Ahmet Ali Taskin, Institute for Employment Research (IAB)
 
Session 51: MACROECONOMETRICS
May 26, 2026 16:30 to 18:30
 
 

Unfolding Regional Business Cycles: Factor Models for Three-Way State-Level Tensors
   Presented by: Sebastian Fossati, University of Alberta
 

Estimating Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending Shocks
   Presented by: Valerio Palagi, Università degli studi di Torino & Collegio Carlo Alberto
 

Measure matters and identification even more: unmasking the New Keynesian Phillips curve in the Euro Area
   Presented by: Federico Neri, University of Bologna
 

A Shrinkage Factor-Augmented VAR for High-Dimensional Macro–Fiscal Dynamics
   Presented by: Dimitra Kyriakopoulou, National Kapodistrian University of Athens
 

Measuring Macroeconomic Stars with Scarring Effects
   Presented by: Manuel González-Astudillo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv
 
Session 52: TECHNICAL CHANGE IN GREEN AND DIGITAL TRANSITION
May 26, 2026 16:30 to 18:30
 
 

The Solow model under localized technical change
   Presented by: Mehdi Senouci, CentraleSupelec/Université Paris-Saclay
 

Automation and Jobs: Skill Requirements and Employment in EU
   Presented by: Orkhan Mammadov, Prague University of Economics and Business
 

Perceived AI Job Risk and Wellbeing
   Presented by: Ana Suárez Álvarez, University of Oviedo
 

Modern Technology Use at Work
   Presented by: Montserrat Vilalta-Bufi, Universitat de Barcelona
 

Beyond Green Jobs: how Climate change Policies reshape Skill demand
   Presented by: Angelica Bertucci, Università di Pavia
 
Session 53: TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 4 - Multivariate Models and Long Memory - Chair: Massimiliano Caporin (University of Padova)
May 26, 2026 16:30 to 18:30
 
 

Long memory in the marginalized time series of a VAR revisited
   Presented by: Tomás del Barrio Castro, University of the Balearic Islands
 

Multivariate GARCH and portfolio variance prediction: a forecast reconciliation perspective
   Presented by: Massimiliano Caporin, University of Padova
 

On the practical irrelevance of non-identifiability in VARMA models
   Presented by: Matteo Pelagatti, Università di Milano-Bicocca
 

Testing the order of fractional integration when smooth deterministic trends are possibly present
   Presented by: Mustafa Kilinc,
 

High Dimensional Generalised Penalised Least Squares
   Presented by: Katerina Chrysikou, University of Leicester
 
Session 54: GALA DINNER
May 26, 2026 20:00 to 23:00
 
 
Session 55: REGISTRATION
May 27, 2026 8:00 to 9:00
 
 
Session 56: KEYNOTE SESSION 7: The information Matrix Test for Gaussian Mixtures - Enrique Sentana (CEMFI). Chair:
May 27, 2026 9:00 to 10:00
 
 
Session 57: KEYNOTE SESSION 8: Decarbonization and Investments: A Path to a Green Economy - Eduardo Schwartz (Simon Fraser University)
May 27, 2026 10:00 to 11:00
 
 
Session 58: COFFEE BREAK
May 27, 2026 11:00 to 11:30
 
 
Session 59: BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 3: Volatility, Latent Factors & Financial Econometrics
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

Stochastic dynamic correlations with exogenous shifts
   Presented by: Igor Ferreira Batista Martins, Örebro university
 

Estimating unrestricted spatial interdependence in panel spatial autoregressive models with latent common factors
   Presented by: Deborah Gefang, University of Leicester
 

Infinite sparse factor stochastic volatility model
   Presented by: Martina Zaharieva, CUNEF Universidad
 

Volume-driven time-of-day effects in intraday volatility models
   Presented by: Audrone Virbickaite, CUNEF Universidad
 

A Dynamic Factor Model for Level and Volatility
   Presented by: Sofia Velasco, Banco de España
 
Session 60: CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 5
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

Energy prices, credit risk, and bank lending dynamics
   Presented by: Marco Giometti, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
 

Climate Change As a New Source of Systemic Risk: European Banks and Climate Risk Exposure
   Presented by: Claudia Cannas, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
 

Under Pressure: Sovereign Debt Challenges in a Warming World
   Presented by: Caterina Seghini, Banque de France
 

Bivariate Weather Extremes and the US Economy
   Presented by: Konstantin Boss,
 

Systemic_Risk_In_European_Electricity_Markets
   Presented by: jinteng wu, university paris-dauphine-PSL
 
Session 61: CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 6
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

Commodity Returns: Lost in Financialization
   Presented by: Massimiliano Bondatti, CUNEF Universidad
 

Climate Anomalies, Food Commodity Prices and Consumer Inflation
   Presented by: Christina Anderl, Bank of England
 

Beyond "Greenflation": Heterogeneous Price Dynamics in Critical Mineral Markets Under the Energy Transition
   Presented by: Lorenzo Marcelino, USP
 

SLOW MOVING AND LATENT SYSTEMIC RISK: EVIDENCE FROM AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY NETWORKS
   Presented by: Polina Bulavko, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL
 

Data Depth and Predictive Models in the Oil Market: An Adaptive Approach
   Presented by: Carlos Casarrubio,
 
Session 62: ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND GREEN TRANSITION
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

From Coal to Green: Skills Pathways for Key Emerging Sectors in Just Transition Regions
   Presented by: Charalampos Agiropoulos, University of Piraeus
 

When Regulation Lags Markets: The Cost of Equity Gap in Regulated Energy Networks
   Presented by: Alexander Heiss, TUM
 

The Impact of the EU ETS on Sectoral CO2 emissions.
   Presented by: Àlex Sanz, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
 

Energy Efficiency, Investment Constraints, and GDP Growth in Net-Zero Transitions: Evidence from Vietnam
   Presented by: Christoph Schult, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
 

The Role of Firms in Green Transition
   Presented by: Gulserim Ozcan, OECD
 
Session 63: FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

Monotonic Polynomial GARCH for Higher Moments
   Presented by: Rouven Beiner, Leipzig University
 

Rediscovering Price Discovery
   Presented by: Julien Ling, Collège de France
 

Estimation of Large Portfolios with High-Frequency Data
   Presented by: Ilze Kalnina, North Carolina State University
 

ESG-Constrained Portfolio Optimization via Bayesian Optimization of Deep Reinforcement Learning Agents: A Soft-Hard Constraint Framework
   Presented by: MARÍA CORONADO-VACA, ICADE (Universidad Pontificia Comillas
 

An Eigenvector-Based Ranking and Portfolio Construction Framework: An Opportunity-Advantage Approach
   Presented by: Angel Leon, Universidad de Alicante
 
Session 64: FISCAL POLICY 2
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

What are the causal links between fiscal and extternal sustainability in the EU? New time-varying evidence
   Presented by: António Afonso, ISEG-ULisboa
 

What drives fiscal partisanship? Evidence from Spanish local elections
   Presented by: Carlos Victoria-Lanzon, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
 

Can social pacts deliver successful fiscal consolidations?
   Presented by: Benedicta Marzinotto, Johns Hopkins University
 

Sovereign Debt Dynamics in the Euro-Zone: The Differential Impact of a Common Currency
   Presented by: Luca Pegorari, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
 
Session 65: GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND POLICIES
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

Geopolitics and the Price of Risk
   Presented by: Marcin Pietrzak, Institute of Economic Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences
 

Market Efficiency and Geopolitical Policies: An Event Study of the Semiconductor Industry
   Presented by: Fatjon Kaja, Goethe University Frankfurt
 

Geopolitical risk in financial markets: an analysis of commodity hedging and stock returns in Europe
   Presented by: Beatrice Bertelli, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
 

Georisk and systemic risk in Europe's financial system -- Unpacking transmission channels
   Presented by: Jelena Zivanovic, Bank of Canada
 

Optimal Lockdown Policy with Virus Mutation
   Presented by: Taisuke Nakata, University of Tokyo
 
Session 66: HOUSING PRICES AND BOOMS
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

An Excessive-Demand Measure Outperforms Other Demand Proxies in Explaining Lab Asset-Market Price Changes
   Presented by: John Haracz, Indiana University Bloomington
 

When Do Investors Buy Rental Properties? Insights From A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of Housing Market Breakeven Vacancies
   Presented by: Zhongxia (Sam) Zhang, International Monetary Fund
 

Disentangling the drivers of exuberant house prices
   Presented by: Clemente Pinilla-Torremocha, Bank of England, and European Research University
 

Credit-driven economy: A unified framework of segregated boom, asset inflation and monetary policy
   Presented by: Hitoshi Hayakawa, Hokkaido University
 

Soft lending standards, hard consequences: how housing booms undermine productive investment
   Presented by: Sangyup Choi, Yonsei University
 
Session 67: INFLATION AND EXPECTATIONS
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

Inflation Plucking Cycles
   Presented by: Oskar Juul, Copenhagen Business School
 

Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations
   Presented by: Eleonora Granziera, Norges Bank
 

Inflation Expectations and Wage Setting Under Collective Bargaining
   Presented by: Kristin Mjølnerød, Norges Bank
 

Chronic inflation and the costs of not addressing an upsurge in time
   Presented by: Joaquin Waldman, Universidad de Buenos Aires
 
Session 68: INTEREST RATES
May 27, 2026 11:30 to 13:30
 
 

Emergency Lending, Macroeconomic Conditions, and Bank Loan Spreads: Evidence from the Main Street Lending Program
   Presented by: Qichen Zhou, Nanjing University
 

Stochastic discount factor with inflation risk premium: Theory and VECM evidence of the forward solution
   Presented by: Max Gillman, University of Missouri at St Louis
 

Information in (and not in) interest rates surveys
   Presented by: Adam Golinski, Banque de France
 

Interest Rate Volatility and the Equity Term Structure
   Presented by: Alexandre Remiat, Kanopy-AM
 

Extreme Events in Corporate Bond Spreads
   Presented by: Anjeza Kadilli, University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland, Geneva
 
Session 69: LUNCH
May 27, 2026 13:30 to 14:30
 
 
Session 70: BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 4: Prediction & Market Dynamics
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

External Validity as Prediction Hierarchical Modeling of Treatment Effect Heterogeneity
   Presented by: ANDRES RAMIREZ HASSAN, Universidad EAFIT
 

A Bayesian Analysis of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Model
   Presented by: Lluc Puig Codina, University of Alicante
 

Beyond Conditional Second Moments: Does Nonparametric Density Modelling Matter to Portfolio Allocation?
   Presented by: John Maheu, McMaster
 

Theory-based priors for the output gap
   Presented by: Andrea Renzetti, Bank of England; Bocconi University
 

The R&D Productivity Puzzle: Innovation Networks with Heterogeneous Firms
   Presented by: Santiago Montoya-Blandón, University of Glasgow
 
Session 71: BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS WORKSHOP 5: Advanced Identification and Shrinkage in Multivariate Time Series
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

Misspecification-Robust Shrinkage and Selection for VAR Forecasts and IRFs
   Presented by: Oriol González-Casasús, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
 

Dynamic Consumer Demand at Large Scale
   Presented by: Anna Schmidt, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf
 

Bayesian Markov-Switching Partial Reduced-Rank Regression
   Presented by: Maria Fernanda Pintado, CUNEF Universidad
 

A geometric approach to factor model identification
   Presented by: Sylvia Kaufmann, Study Center Gerzensee and University of
 

Power Prior for VARs
   Presented by: Martin Fankhauser, Bocconi University
 
Session 72: CLIMATE AND ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 7
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

The Impact of Corporate ESG Performance on Stock Price Efficiency
   Presented by: Sinian Zheng, University College Dublin
 

Carbon Scopes, ESG Scores, and Profitability in European Listed Financial Institutions
   Presented by: Isabel Sánchez, Universidad Pontificia de Comillas
 

Multiscale Tail-Risk Connectedness between Carbon, Clean Energy and Agriculture: Evidence from Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform and Extreme Value Theory
   Presented by: shaohua wu, Loughborough University
 

Graded factors: a new approach to the cross-section of returns and risk
   Presented by: Jorge Merladet, Universidad Pontificia comillas
 

Forecasting the Electricity Load Daily Peaks at Regional Level
   Presented by: Andrés Alonso, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
 
Session 73: CONSUMPTION AND PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

Identifying the Marginal Propensity to Consume
   Presented by: Marco D’Amico, Uppsala University
 

The Role of Expenditure Risk in Household Wealth Dynamics
   Presented by: Luigi Maria Briglia, University of Tübingen
 

Precautionary Saving under Ambiguity: Effects on Wealth Inequality
   Presented by: Ana Santos, Adam Smith Business School University of Glasgow
 

Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Implications under Diagnostic Expectations
   Presented by: Jinting Guo, Goethe University Frankfurt
 

Do Non-Prudent Consumers Ever Engage in Precautionary Saving?
   Presented by: Luigi Ventura, Sapienza, University Rome
 
Session 74: CORPORATE DYNAMICS
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

Dual Effects of Financial Constraints on Innovative Efficiency: Evidence from a Semiparametric Panel Model
   Presented by: Karine Borri, University of São Paulo
 

Shareholder Empowerment and Ownership Structure in a Free-Contracting Environment
   Presented by: Salvatore Miglietta, BI Norwegian Business School
 

Heterogeneity of covenants and corporate financial behaviour
   Presented by: maria elena bontempi, University of Bologna
 

Interest Rate Pass-Through to Euro Area Corporate Lending Rates: Does Asymmetry Matter?
   Presented by: Steve Billon, University of Strasbourg
 

Three-phase modelling scheme based on data augmentation and its application to Loss given default (LGD) estimation
   Presented by: Paweł Kopciuszewski, ING HUBS Poland
 
Session 75: INDUSTRY AND FINANCIAL RISK
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

Does Biodiversity Risk Affect Financial Risk? Evidence from U.S. Firms.
   Presented by: Almudena García-Sanz, Complutense University of Madrid
 

Valuation of Regulatory Risk on Pharmaceutical R&D
   Presented by: Teresa Corzo, Universidad Pontificia Comillas
 

Quantifying the Experience Premium in Solar Capital Costs
   Presented by: Robin Fischer,
 

Can Monitoring Curb Moral Hazard in Green Investments? Evidence from International Carbon Offset Program
   Presented by: Vikram Nanda, University of Texas at Dallas
 

Bayesian Disaggregation of Subnational Institutional Quality: An Application to the 2020 Croatian Earthquakes
   Presented by: Ana Marija Filipas, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Rijeka / School of Economics and Business, University of Ljubljana
 
Session 76: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS 2
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

When Men Work, Do Women Work? Sectoral Patterns of Intra- household Labor Supply in India
   Presented by: Meghna ., Indian Institute of Technology Indore
 

Macroeconomic Consequences of the Spanish Transition to Democracy
   Presented by: Cristino Abril De Maya, State University of New York at Binghamton
 

Capital Across Borders, Jobs at Home: The FDI-Unemployment Nexus in the OECD
   Presented by: Kaan Celebi, University of Technology Chemnitz
 

Trade Credit as Relational Insurance: Micro Reallocation under Supplier Cost Shocks
   Presented by: Felipe Leal, UCLA
 

The Integration Paradox: A Panel Data VAR Approach ot Business Cycle Asymmetries in the Andean Community (1990 - 2024)
   Presented by: Luis-Felipe Arizmendi, Universidad Pontificia Comillas
 
Session 77: MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

What Did the Fed Really Say? Disentangling Policy and Information Spillovers to Global Equity Markets
   Presented by: João Fernandes, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo ESALQ/USP
 

Banks and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: Empirical Evidence from the West African Economic and Monetary Union
   Presented by: Ahmad Hassan Ahmad, Loughborough University
 

Exchange Rate Regime Ambiguity and Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Multi-Method Consensus Framework
   Presented by: Luciano Silva, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
 

Fiscal Policy at the Effective Lower Bound
   Presented by: Pakpicha Pathompituknukoon, Kasetsart University
 

Are External Shocks Enough to Explain Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Small Open Economies?
   Presented by: Diego Gonzales, MEF
 
Session 78: MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

Asymmetric Spillovers of idiosyncratic cycles in the European Union: Core-Periphery and Old-New Members Analysis
   Presented by: Aránzazu de Juan Fernández, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
 

The Transmission of Foreign Economic Surprises
   Presented by: Julio Ortiz, Federal Reserve Board
 

Exporting inflation
   Presented by: Mauricio Stern, Bank of Mexico
 

Fiscal Shocks and Financial Risk
   Presented by: Benedikt Kolb, Deutsche Bundesbank
 

Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets: Do Revenue and Spending Shocks Matter Differently?
   Presented by: Alessandra Centinaio, LIUC Università Cattaneo
 
Session 79: NATURAL RESOURCE AND BRICS
May 27, 2026 14:30 to 16:30
 
 

Is There Evidence of GHG Leakage? Insights from Production and Consumption-Based Accounting
   Presented by: Pınar Tat, Gebze Technical University
 

Agree to Disagree: Robust Yield Prediction for Indian Farms using a weighted Multi-MLMs, Multifold Framework, using NSSO Data
   Presented by: Sukanya Mukherjee, Institute of Economics Research in Halle (Saale)
 

Global Temperature Shocks and U.S. Food Price Inflation
   Presented by: Mohamad Karaki, Lebanese American University
 

Awareness, Infrastructure, and Rare Adoption: Evidence on Microgrids from Rural India
   Presented by: Srikant Shaw, Indian Institute of Technology Madras
 

The Trade-Off Between Fossil Fuels and Renewable Ethanol: Evidence from Brazil’s Fuel Market
   Presented by: Emerson Marçal, CEMAP-EESP-FGV and CSSA-Mackenzie
 
Session 80: COFFEE BREAK
May 27, 2026 16:30 to 17:00
 
 
Session 81: KEYNOTE SESSION 9: Temperature Distributional Shocks: Identification and Macroeconomic Effects, Jesus Gonzalo (Universidad de Madrid Carlos III) - Chair:
May 27, 2026 17:00 to 18:00
 
 
Session 82: END OF THE CONFERENCE
May 27, 2026 18:00 to 18:15
 
 

82 sessions, 285 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers
 
Index of Participants

Legend: C=chair, P=Presenter, D=Discussant
#ParticipantRoles in Conference
1., MeghnaP76
2Abad, JorgeP12
3Abril De Maya, CristinoP76
4Afonso, AntónioP64
5Agiropoulos, CharalamposP62
6Ahmad, Ahmad HassanP77
7Alm, HenrikeP8
8Alonso, AndrésP72
9Alonso-Robisco, AndresP34
10Ameen, UmerP49
11Amisano, GiovanniP40
12Ampudia, MiguelP21
13Anderl, ChristinaP61
14Arcalean, CalinP22
15Arcidiacono, CristianP50
16Arizmendi, Luis-FelipeP76
17Baillie, RichardP23
18Ballarin, GiovanniP15
19Bauer, LukasP15
20Beaudreau, BernardP39
21Beiner, RouvenP63
22Bermejo, VicenteP33
23Bertelli, BeatriceP65
24Bertucci, AngelicaP52
25Billon, SteveP74
26Bin Muqbel, NoufP21
27Bondatti, MassimilianoP61
28Boni, SaraP22
29bontempi, maria elenaP74
30Borri, KarineP74
31Boss, KonstantinP60
32Briglia, Luigi MariaP73
33Bulavko, PolinaP61
34Cagnazzo, AlbertoP36
35Canepa, AlessandraP10
36Cannas, ClaudiaP60
37Caporin, MassimilianoP53
38Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep LluísP13
39Carruthers, AnnaP38
40Casares, MiguelP47
41Casarrubio, CarlosP61
42Cassinello, NataliaP47
43Celebi, KaanP76
44Centinaio, AlessandraP78
45Chankova, RosiP49
46Chen, ChaoyiP34
47Chen, JesseP23
48Choi, CYP5
49Choi, SangyupP66
50Choi, Chang konP35
51Christensen, JensP50
52Christou, ChristinaP11
53Chrysikou, KaterinaP53
54Claeys, PeterP19
55Colamartino, ChiaraP20
56Collado Van-Baumberghen, NataliaP17
57Collodel, UmbertoP38
58Colombo, DanieleP11
59CORONADO-VACA, MARÍAP63
60Corzo, TeresaP75
61Croutzet, AlexandreP17
62Danov, NikolayP23
63Datsenko, RuslanaP21
64D’Amico, MarcoP73
65de Juan Fernández, AránzazuP78
66De Polis, AndreaP23
67Deegan, SamP45
68del Barrio Castro, TomásP53
69DEMOSTHENOUS, NIKIP17
70Dias, KaioP9
71Diaz Pastor, SantosP47
72Dietrich, DiemoP9
73DOMINGUEZ JIMENEZ, MARTAP22
74Egbétoké, AmétépéP10
75Elsayed, MoazP19
76Escribano, AlvaroP34
77Evdokimov, KirillP35
78Fabra, NataliaP5
79Fankhauser, MartinP71
80Feistle, SimonP35
81Fernandes, JoãoP77
82Ferreira Batista Martins, IgorP59
83Figuerola Ferretti, IsabelP5
84Filipas, Ana MarijaP75
85Fischer, RobinP75
86Fossati, SebastianP51
87Francisco, MarlonP20
88Fratini, AndreaP19
89Gadea, Maria DoloresP34
90Galfrascoli, PaolaP33
91Galli, FaustoP8
92Gao, XinP9
93Garabedian, GaroP46
94García-Sanz, AlmudenaP75
95Garcia Ares, PedroP18
96Garcia-Jorcano, LauraP10
97Garcia-Martos, CarolinaP40
98Gautam, DeepaliP45
99Gauthier, DavidP12
100Gefang, DeborahP59
101Gillman, MaxP68
102Giometti, MarcoP60
103Golinski, AdamP68
104Gonzales, DiegoP77
105González, XuliaP9
106González-Astudillo, ManuelP51
107González-Casasús, OriolP71
108Granziera, EleonoraP67
109Guinea, LaurentiuP48
110Guo, JintingP73
111Gutierrez, BryanP18
112Gutknecht, DanielP40
113Gutsch, AlexandraP36
114Habibnia, AliP32
115Haracz, JohnP66
116Harpedanne de Belleville, Louis-MarieP5
117Hayakawa, HitoshiP66
118Heiss, AlexanderP62
119Hong, SeokkiP15
120Horn, Carl-WolframP21
121Huber, JeremiasP31
122Hwang, JungbinP13
123Iacopini, MatteoP32
124Ionta, SerenaP48
125Iskrev, NikolayP35
126Isojaervi, AnniP6
127Issler, JoãoP31
128Jensen, ChristianP20
129Jimenez Bedolla, EdgarP39
130Junare, ParitoshP40
131Juul, OskarP67
132Kadilli, AnjezaP68
133Kaja, FatjonP65
134Kalnina, IlzeP63
135Kamkar, KilianP16
136Karaki, MohamadP79
137Kaufmann, SylviaP71
138Kilic, RehimP7
139Kilinc, MustafaP53
140Kim, HarimP9
141Kolb, BenediktP78
142Kopciuszewski, PawełP74
143Kovalenko, TimP38
144Kurter, ZeynepP7
145Kyriakopoulou, DimitraP51
146Laliotis, IoannisP20
147Leal, FelipeP76
148Ledesma Goyzueta, LuisP16
149Lee, So JinP15
150Leon, AngelP63
151Li, JingP50
152Ling, JulienP63
153Liu, JiaxunP18
154LIU, RenzhiP45
155Llorca-Vivero, RafaelP37
156Llorens-Terrazas, JordiP40
157Llorente-Alvarez, GuillermoP7
158Longarela, IñakiP5
159Maheu, JohnP70
160Mammadov, OrkhanP52
161Marçal, EmersonP79
162Marcelino, LorenzoP61
163Marx, MagaliP46
164Marzinotto, BenedictaP64
165Mazzali, MarcoP13
166Mazzanti, MassimilianoP48
167McCrorie, RoderickP33
168Merladet, JorgeP72
169Micco, AlejandroP8
170Miglietta, SalvatoreP74
171Mirto, ElisabettaP36
172Mjølnerød, KristinP67
173Mones, PabloP35
174Montes-Galdon, CarlosP32
175Montoya-Blandón, SantiagoP70
176Morais, PauloP48
177Morana, ClaudioP10
178Morita, RubensP49
179Mukherjee, SukanyaP79
180MUZZIOLI, SilviaP33
181Nakata, TaisukeP65
182Nanda, VikramP75
183Nasir, HarunP48
184Neleptchenko, YuliaP39
185Neri, FedericoP51
186Nikolaishvili, GiorgiP11
187Nordvik, Frode MartinP39
188O'Neill, EoghanP32
189Okano, EijiP21
190Okhah, RuthP16
191Onyshchenko, HannaP38
192Orlik, AnnaP12
193Ortiz, JulioP78
194Ossola, ElisaP31
195Ostapenko, NataliiaP36
196Ozcan, GulserimP62
197Pal Mustafi, UtsoP23
198Palagi, ValerioP51
199Pankratov, AndreyP45
200Papagni, FrancescaP11
201Paraskevopoulos, IoannisP37
202Pathompituknukoon, PakpichaP77
203Patiti, DanieleP22
204Pegorari, LucaP64
205Pelagatti, MatteoP53
206Penalva Zuasti, JoseP31
207Pfaffermayr, MichaelP37
208Pham, HanP17
209Pietrzak, MarcinP65
210Pinilla-Torremocha, ClementeP66
211Pintado, Maria FernandaP71
212Puglisi, FedericoP18
213Puig Codina, LlucP70
214Rahi, GraciaP47
215RAMIREZ HASSAN, ANDRESP70
216Ramos, AndreyP10
217Rünstler, GerhardP46
218Remiat, AlexandreP68
219Renzetti, AndreaP70
220Rodríguez, JuanP34
221Rodriguez, MartaP12
222Rogna, MarcoP16
223Rossi, LudovicoP45
224Ruiz, EstherP13
225Sanchez Alegre, SofiaP38
226Santos, AnaP73
227Sanz, ÀlexP62
228Saveska, KristinaP20
229Sánchez, IsabelP72
230Schaubert, MariannaP8
231Scheckel, TobiasP32
232Schiopu, IoanaP39
233Schmidt, AnnaP71
234Schneider, FabiolaP17
235Schult, ChristophP62
236Segato, FedericoP20
237Seghini, CaterinaP60
238Semenov, AndreiP7
239Senouci, MehdiP52
240Seo, ByeongseonP15
241Shaw, SrikantP79
242Shehaj, PranveraP16
243Silva, LucianoP77
244Simon, LaureP37
245Smirnov, DanilaP50
246Soedjito, AudreyP12
247Sola, MartinP15
248Song, MengyingP8
249Staehr, KarstenP19
250Stern, MauricioP78
251Suárez Álvarez, AnaP52
252Sufana, RazvanP6
253Taskin, Ahmet AliP50
254Tat, PınarP79
255Tebaldi, ClaudioP36
256Tercero-Lucas, DavidP6
257Tonni, LorenzoP49
258Ugarte-Ruiz, AlfonsoP11
259Valdesogo, AlfonsoP31
260Varga, Katalin JuliannaP46
261Velasco, SofiaP59
262Ventura, LuigiP73
263Ventura Flores, MiguelP7
264Victoria-Lanzon, CarlosP64
265Vilalta-Bufi, MontserratP52
266Virbickaite, AudroneP59
267Vladu, Andreea LilianaP6
268Waldman, JoaquinP67
269Wegner, EnricoP46
270Wesołowski, GrzegorzP37
271Wozniak, KrzysztofP6
272wu, shaohuaP72
273wu, jintengP60
274Xu, TracyP22
275Yamamoto, YoheiP47
276Zaharieva, MartinaP59
277Zander, DennisP19
278Zanetti Chini, EmilioP13
279Zapatero, FernandoP33
280Zeynalov, AyazP18
281Zhang, Zhongxia (Sam)P66
282Zheng, SinianP72
283Zhou, QichenP68
284Zivanovic, JelenaP65
285Zoso, MarcoP49

 

This program was last updated on 2026-05-01 13:48:40 EDT